Domination
Footballguy
I might disagree w/ you wannabee. But only on the aspect of SA for LT, not LJ. The ability to get younger, and still maintain a 20 TD RB. Plus adding LT's rec ability, I think I would make the deal.
i've thought about getting younger,this is a 2 veterans keeper league but the LT owner has another offer on the table which will seriously weaken his team and since it's my brother i'd rather see him get weaker than stronger. if this was a ppr league this deal would be done but i have concerns about whether or not rivers can keep the defense honest....I might disagree w/ you wannabee. But only on the aspect of SA for LT, not LJ. The ability to get younger, and still maintain a 20 TD RB. Plus adding LT's rec ability, I think I would make the deal.
OK. I understand your thinking. But, please consider these facts:In one less year, LT has more touches than Alexander. This is surprising to most people. Alexander has played one more season in the NFL, but we forget Alexander spent the first year in the league sitting behind Ricky Watters. So, the age thing is not an issue, neither is touches since LT has more.I might disagree w/ you wannabee. But only on the aspect of SA for LT, not LJ. The ability to get younger, and still maintain a 20 TD RB. Plus adding LT's rec ability, I think I would make the deal.
I think you should grab Cutler at 1.08. Overall, he adds the most value to your team. If he is gone for some odd reason, it means that either Leinart or Young is there. Take one of the rookie QBs at 1.08. When you say that the rookie RBs will be going quick, I assume that the top five RBs (Bush, Maroney, Williams, White, & Addai) will be gone. This would guarantee you a rookie QB. But, another question: What QBs were thrown back and not kept? Are there viable options that were not kept? The reason I asked is if a decent QB is available, and you wanted Davis or Norwood instead, what are your options. I know that in my 7 player keeper league, there are very good QB options available in the draft.In a 8 player keeper league I will be keeping:
J Plummer
B Favre
Larry Johnson
Caddillac Williams
Ronnie Brown
Reuben Droughns
Steve Smith
Daryl Jackson
We start 2qb/3rb/3wr/1te every week.
The draft will be a FA/Rook Draft. I have the 8th/14th/20th/26th/32nd/39th picks in the first 4 rounds. Starting 3 rbs each week in this 12 team league there will be a huge run on rookie rbs to start the draft, but not knowing exactly whos goin where, do u think its critical that i draft Cutler to protect having Plummer? This will be the last year i keep Favre so i will need a replacement for him at qb wether i try to draft it this year or next.
OK, I'm targeting Portis in the 1st Round , currently with my #4 Pick (I'm assumming that LT and Alexander (along with LJ-a Keeper this year) will be off the Board. The guy ahead of me @ #3, I'm not sure what he's going to do, maybe one of either Tiki, Portis, P. Manning, those three are pretty safe bets I will assume . If he takes Portis at #3, I'm proposing the following trade to the guys sitting at #10, #11 and #12 in the 1st Round:They get from me: my Pick #4 (1st Round), Pick #21 (2nd Round), and Pick #52 (5th round)In just messing around with trading picks, I'm seriously thinking of throwing out a pick trade offer to the 1.10, 1.11 and 1.12 owners right now. We do pick our own spots, but it is likely that no one else will automatiaclly move down in the first round accept me.
I would offer my 1st and 2nd picks (#4 and #21) for their 1st and 2nd picks (anything around #10-#12, and #13-#15) as well as switching 6th rounders(my #69 for their #61-63). I would then have #10, 11 or 12, and #13, #14, or #15, plus Fitz and Dunn, the #52, #61 and #76 picks in exchance for #4, #21, and #69.
That is a very fair trade for them. This is a cheap price to move up to 1.04 to get a guy like Tiki or Caddy (whom some love), SJackson (whom some love), Manning, or even Bush. I am also a proponent of a "contingent deal". Basically a trade as long as a certain guy is or is not there when the pick comes up. You basically tell them that if one of Portis, LT or SA is available, you will take them ... if not, the trade is on.OK, I'm targeting Portis in the 1st Round , currently with my #4 Pick (I'm assumming that LT and Alexander (along with LJ-a Keeper this year) will be off the Board. The guy ahead of me, I'm not sure what he's going to do, maybe either Tiki, Portis, P. Manning, those three are pretty safe bets I will . If he takes Portis at #3, I'm proposing the following trade to the guys sitting at #10, #11 and #12 in the 1st Round:They get from me: my Pick #4 (1st Round), Pick #21 (2nd Round), and Pick #52 (5th round)In just messing around with trading picks, I'm seriously thinking of throwing out a pick trade offer to the 1.10, 1.11 and 1.12 owners right now. We do pick our own spots, but it is likely that no one else will automatiaclly move down in the first round accept me.
I would offer my 1st and 2nd picks (#4 and #21) for their 1st and 2nd picks (anything around #10-#12, and #13-#15) as well as switching 6th rounders(my #69 for their #61-63). I would then have #10, 11 or 12, and #13, #14, or #15, plus Fitz and Dunn, the #52, #61 and #76 picks in exchance for #4, #21, and #69.
**I get from Them: Their 1st and 2nd Round Picks (assuming its the #10 and #15, or #11 and #14 , or #12, and #13 because I don't foresee anyone else dropping down in the first and second rounds), and their Pick #37, #38 or #39 (4th Round, depending on where you select in the 1st).
Essentially, the deal is, we swap 1st and 2nd Round picks, I get an extra 4th rounder, they get an extra 5th rounder. That will give me 5 picks in the first 45 selections. Not sure if they will go for it, but I'm going to try it.
Well done. I think the concept of market values for players is valid. In a way this is the only thing that matters: what the market or other owners will pay for players. And I've often thought about it like stocks. This especially rings true in dynasty leagues. For valuing stocks, one method is the discounted cash flow analysis. Basically that the value of a stock is worth the present value of the future cash flows discounted at some rate to account for risk. The higher the risk, the higher the discount rate and lower the value. This can actually be done in some fashion when comparing players. To at least think of their value tied to the future of all fantasy points discounted to account for the risks (i.e., poor offenses, injuries, age, etc.). We all do this instinctively anyway. For example, when looking at Corey Dillon or Laurence Maroney, it could be argued that the value of Maroney is higher than Dillon's in a dynasty league even though he's not currenty the starter. I think you could actually project a player's stats for the next 5 years and use a simple discount rate (10% for low risk, 20% for medium, and 30% for high risk players). This could give you a real sense statistically of who has more value depending on the stage of a players career. Good insight Wannabee.I would like to discuss the concept of value. Almost every one of my posts has that word in it. There are many ways "value" is used. Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value. This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions. This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed. I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks. This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.
I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations. For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value. The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage. Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards. Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important. In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.
Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100. I think this "value" is derived from the public perception. This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price. In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables. One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted). But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups. Another market variable is public perception. This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more. There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.
This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic. There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.
This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value". Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams. The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate. They are able to "buy low" and "sell high". A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):
a. acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low. At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne. Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs. This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.
b. trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside. This is a very important strategy. Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce. Willis last year at this time applies as well. I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year. We will know this time next year. Brown could apply also. But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy. I cannot buy it.
c. holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production. This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones. Who is the better "value"?
Conclusion:
The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production. I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board.
Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player. Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage. Usually, ADPs are for a long perid of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value). I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed. I bet they are higher than they should be. Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is. His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo. Andre Johnson is the same way. For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith. How crazy does that look now? The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league. This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.
Hope this helps.
Do people like these posts? If so, I will continue to put them up. If not, I will spend more time with the family ....Well done. I think the concept of market values for players is valid. In a way this is the only thing that matters: what the market or other owners will pay for players. And I've often thought about it like stocks. This especially rings true in dynasty leagues. For valuing stocks, one method is the discounted cash flow analysis. Basically that the value of a stock is worth the present value of the future cash flows discounted at some rate to account for risk. The higher the risk, the higher the discount rate and lower the value. This can actually be done in some fashion when comparing players. To at least think of their value tied to the future of all fantasy points discounted to account for the risks (i.e., poor offenses, injuries, age, etc.). We all do this instinctively anyway. For example, when looking at Corey Dillon or Laurence Maroney, it could be argued that the value of Maroney is higher than Dillon's in a dynasty league even though he's not currenty the starter. I think you could actually project a player's stats for the next 5 years and use a simple discount rate (10% for low risk, 20% for medium, and 30% for high risk players). This could give you a real sense statistically of who has more value depending on the stage of a players career. Good insight Wannabee.I would like to discuss the concept of value. Almost every one of my posts has that word in it. There are many ways "value" is used. Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value. This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions. This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed. I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks. This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.
I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations. For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value. The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage. Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards. Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important. In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.
Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100. I think this "value" is derived from the public perception. This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price. In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables. One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted). But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups. Another market variable is public perception. This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more. There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.
This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic. There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.
This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value". Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams. The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate. They are able to "buy low" and "sell high". A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):
a. acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low. At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne. Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs. This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.
b. trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside. This is a very important strategy. Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce. Willis last year at this time applies as well. I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year. We will know this time next year. Brown could apply also. But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy. I cannot buy it.
c. holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production. This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones. Who is the better "value"?
Conclusion:
The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production. I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board.
Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player. Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage. Usually, ADPs are for a long perid of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value). I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed. I bet they are higher than they should be. Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is. His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo. Andre Johnson is the same way. For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith. How crazy does that look now? The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league. This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.
Hope this helps.
This is the best advice I've seen in this forum in a LOOOOOOONNNNNNGGGGG time. Good stuff keep it up!Do people like these posts? If so, I will continue to put them up. If not, I will spend more time with the family ....Well done. I think the concept of market values for players is valid. In a way this is the only thing that matters: what the market or other owners will pay for players. And I've often thought about it like stocks. This especially rings true in dynasty leagues. For valuing stocks, one method is the discounted cash flow analysis. Basically that the value of a stock is worth the present value of the future cash flows discounted at some rate to account for risk. The higher the risk, the higher the discount rate and lower the value. This can actually be done in some fashion when comparing players. To at least think of their value tied to the future of all fantasy points discounted to account for the risks (i.e., poor offenses, injuries, age, etc.). We all do this instinctively anyway. For example, when looking at Corey Dillon or Laurence Maroney, it could be argued that the value of Maroney is higher than Dillon's in a dynasty league even though he's not currenty the starter. I think you could actually project a player's stats for the next 5 years and use a simple discount rate (10% for low risk, 20% for medium, and 30% for high risk players). This could give you a real sense statistically of who has more value depending on the stage of a players career. Good insight Wannabee.I would like to discuss the concept of value. Almost every one of my posts has that word in it. There are many ways "value" is used. Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value. This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions. This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed. I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks. This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.
I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations. For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value. The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage. Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards. Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important. In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.
Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100. I think this "value" is derived from the public perception. This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price. In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables. One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted). But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups. Another market variable is public perception. This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more. There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.
This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic. There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.
This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value". Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams. The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate. They are able to "buy low" and "sell high". A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):
a. acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low. At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne. Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs. This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.
b. trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside. This is a very important strategy. Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce. Willis last year at this time applies as well. I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year. We will know this time next year. Brown could apply also. But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy. I cannot buy it.
c. holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production. This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones. Who is the better "value"?
Conclusion:
The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production. I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board.
Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player. Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage. Usually, ADPs are for a long perid of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value). I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed. I bet they are higher than they should be. Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is. His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo. Andre Johnson is the same way. For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith. How crazy does that look now? The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league. This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.
Hope this helps.
OK, I'm mulling over another trade. I'm still targeting Portis with my #4 pick in the first round, however, this time if I don't get him, I'm offering to switch that pick with the #8 pick in the first round. this guy already has LJ in the 5th (the #58th pick). In addition, I want his fourth for my 5th, and we would switch 6th Rounders as well.So it would go:OK, I'm targeting Portis in the 1st Round , currently with my #4 Pick (I'm assumming that LT and Alexander (along with LJ-a Keeper this year) will be off the Board. The guy ahead of me @ #3, I'm not sure what he's going to do, maybe one of either Tiki, Portis, P. Manning, those three are pretty safe bets I will assume . If he takes Portis at #3, I'm proposing the following trade to the guys sitting at #10, #11 and #12 in the 1st Round:They get from me: my Pick #4 (1st Round), Pick #21 (2nd Round), and Pick #52 (5th round)In just messing around with trading picks, I'm seriously thinking of throwing out a pick trade offer to the 1.10, 1.11 and 1.12 owners right now. We do pick our own spots, but it is likely that no one else will automatiaclly move down in the first round accept me.
I would offer my 1st and 2nd picks (#4 and #21) for their 1st and 2nd picks (anything around #10-#12, and #13-#15) as well as switching 6th rounders(my #69 for their #61-63). I would then have #10, 11 or 12, and #13, #14, or #15, plus Fitz and Dunn, the #52, #61 and #76 picks in exchance for #4, #21, and #69.
**I get from Them: Their 1st and 2nd Round Picks (assuming its the #10 and #15, or #11 and #14 , or #12, and #13 because I don't foresee anyone else dropping down in the first and second rounds), and their Pick #37, #38 or #39 (4th Round, depending on where you select in the 1st).
Essentially, the deal is, we swap 1st and 2nd Round picks, I get an extra 4th rounder, they get an extra 5th rounder. That will give me 5 picks in the first 45 selections. It somewhat of a steep price just to move up to #4, but these guys also are only allowed 1 Keeper, not 2 like me (they are new guy joining our league this year, so they are allowed one keeper from the remaining pool of eligible Keepers, once everyone from last year selects theirs.) Not sure if they will go for it, but I'm going to try it.
First of all, I would do this ONLY if I was able to switch 2nd rounders as well. This is where you gain the value in trading down. You are better off staying put than doing this deal without swapping 2nd rounders.I like the trade for you if you get 2nd because the dropoff is pretty steep. At 1.08, you never know who will drop to you.OK, I'm mulling over another trade. I'm still targeting Portis with my #4 pick in the first round, however, this time if I don't get him, I'm offering to switch that pick with the #8 pick in the first round. this guy already has LJ in the 5th (the #58th pick). In addition, I want his fourth for my 5th, and we would switch 6th Rounders as well.So it would go:OK, I'm targeting Portis in the 1st Round , currently with my #4 Pick (I'm assumming that LT and Alexander (along with LJ-a Keeper this year) will be off the Board. The guy ahead of me @ #3, I'm not sure what he's going to do, maybe one of either Tiki, Portis, P. Manning, those three are pretty safe bets I will assume . If he takes Portis at #3, I'm proposing the following trade to the guys sitting at #10, #11 and #12 in the 1st Round:They get from me: my Pick #4 (1st Round), Pick #21 (2nd Round), and Pick #52 (5th round)In just messing around with trading picks, I'm seriously thinking of throwing out a pick trade offer to the 1.10, 1.11 and 1.12 owners right now. We do pick our own spots, but it is likely that no one else will automatiaclly move down in the first round accept me.
I would offer my 1st and 2nd picks (#4 and #21) for their 1st and 2nd picks (anything around #10-#12, and #13-#15) as well as switching 6th rounders(my #69 for their #61-63). I would then have #10, 11 or 12, and #13, #14, or #15, plus Fitz and Dunn, the #52, #61 and #76 picks in exchance for #4, #21, and #69.
**I get from Them: Their 1st and 2nd Round Picks (assuming its the #10 and #15, or #11 and #14 , or #12, and #13 because I don't foresee anyone else dropping down in the first and second rounds), and their Pick #37, #38 or #39 (4th Round, depending on where you select in the 1st).
Essentially, the deal is, we swap 1st and 2nd Round picks, I get an extra 4th rounder, they get an extra 5th rounder. That will give me 5 picks in the first 45 selections. It somewhat of a steep price just to move up to #4, but these guys also are only allowed 1 Keeper, not 2 like me (they are new guy joining our league this year, so they are allowed one keeper from the remaining pool of eligible Keepers, once everyone from last year selects theirs.) Not sure if they will go for it, but I'm going to try it.
My picks after the trade: 1st Round: #8 (from him), 2nd Round: #21 (my own), 3rd Round: #28 (Fitz-my keeper), 4th Round: #41 (from him), 4th Round: #45 (Dunn-my keeper), 5th Round: no pick, 6th Round: #65 (from him).
His picks after the trade: 1st Round: #4 (from me), 2nd Round: #17 (his own), 3rd Round: #32 (his own), 4th Round: no pick, 5th Round: #52 (from me), 5th Round: #56 (LJ-his keeper), 6th Round: #69 (from me).
This would be fairly risky for me, but I really like the idea of getting essentially 5 picks in the first 45 selections. I already have great value with my 3rd and 4th Rounders, and he has LJ in the 5th, potentially the #1 player this year. This gives him back his 5th rounder, while I give up a 5th to move up in the 2nd and 6th Rounds. He is the only one I would offer this to for several reasons: 1) he has LJ and the potential for him to get his 5th rounder back would be tempting for him, 2)he moves up to get P. Manning or another solid #1 RB in the first, 3)he is in another division, and I only play him once this year.
I just think there will be more value for me if I move down from #4 for a shot at a #1 REC or perhaps two to go along with Fitz. Sitting at #4, my options are Portis and not much else, so why not try for better value later one in the first third of the Draft?
Think I'm giving up too much here? thoughts?
yea, good point. thanks. I'll mull that over...appreciate your insight.First of all, I would do this ONLY if I was able to switch 2nd rounders as well. This is where you gain the value in trading down. You are better off staying put than doing this deal without swapping 2nd rounders.I like the trade for you if you get 2nd because the dropoff is pretty steep. At 1.08, you never know who will drop to you.OK, I'm mulling over another trade. I'm still targeting Portis with my #4 pick in the first round, however, this time if I don't get him, I'm offering to switch that pick with the #8 pick in the first round. this guy already has LJ in the 5th (the #58th pick). In addition, I want his fourth for my 5th, and we would switch 6th Rounders as well.So it would go:OK, I'm targeting Portis in the 1st Round , currently with my #4 Pick (I'm assumming that LT and Alexander (along with LJ-a Keeper this year) will be off the Board. The guy ahead of me @ #3, I'm not sure what he's going to do, maybe one of either Tiki, Portis, P. Manning, those three are pretty safe bets I will assume . If he takes Portis at #3, I'm proposing the following trade to the guys sitting at #10, #11 and #12 in the 1st Round:They get from me: my Pick #4 (1st Round), Pick #21 (2nd Round), and Pick #52 (5th round)In just messing around with trading picks, I'm seriously thinking of throwing out a pick trade offer to the 1.10, 1.11 and 1.12 owners right now. We do pick our own spots, but it is likely that no one else will automatiaclly move down in the first round accept me.
I would offer my 1st and 2nd picks (#4 and #21) for their 1st and 2nd picks (anything around #10-#12, and #13-#15) as well as switching 6th rounders(my #69 for their #61-63). I would then have #10, 11 or 12, and #13, #14, or #15, plus Fitz and Dunn, the #52, #61 and #76 picks in exchance for #4, #21, and #69.
**I get from Them: Their 1st and 2nd Round Picks (assuming its the #10 and #15, or #11 and #14 , or #12, and #13 because I don't foresee anyone else dropping down in the first and second rounds), and their Pick #37, #38 or #39 (4th Round, depending on where you select in the 1st).
Essentially, the deal is, we swap 1st and 2nd Round picks, I get an extra 4th rounder, they get an extra 5th rounder. That will give me 5 picks in the first 45 selections. It somewhat of a steep price just to move up to #4, but these guys also are only allowed 1 Keeper, not 2 like me (they are new guy joining our league this year, so they are allowed one keeper from the remaining pool of eligible Keepers, once everyone from last year selects theirs.) Not sure if they will go for it, but I'm going to try it.
My picks after the trade: 1st Round: #8 (from him), 2nd Round: #21 (my own), 3rd Round: #28 (Fitz-my keeper), 4th Round: #41 (from him), 4th Round: #45 (Dunn-my keeper), 5th Round: no pick, 6th Round: #65 (from him).
His picks after the trade: 1st Round: #4 (from me), 2nd Round: #17 (his own), 3rd Round: #32 (his own), 4th Round: no pick, 5th Round: #52 (from me), 5th Round: #56 (LJ-his keeper), 6th Round: #69 (from me).
This would be fairly risky for me, but I really like the idea of getting essentially 5 picks in the first 45 selections. I already have great value with my 3rd and 4th Rounders, and he has LJ in the 5th, potentially the #1 player this year. This gives him back his 5th rounder, while I give up a 5th to move up in the 2nd and 6th Rounds. He is the only one I would offer this to for several reasons: 1) he has LJ and the potential for him to get his 5th rounder back would be tempting for him, 2)he moves up to get P. Manning or another solid #1 RB in the first, 3)he is in another division, and I only play him once this year.
I just think there will be more value for me if I move down from #4 for a shot at a #1 REC or perhaps two to go along with Fitz. Sitting at #4, my options are Portis and not much else, so why not try for better value later one in the first third of the Draft?
Think I'm giving up too much here? thoughts?
I gotta tell ya wannabee, this is the first thread I check out of all the forums. Keep it going bud!! BTW, what are Kevin Kaspers chances of making an impact this year? Leave a link, I'll help answer yours.Do people like these posts? If so, I will continue to put them up. If not, I will spend more time with the family ....Well done. I think the concept of market values for players is valid. In a way this is the only thing that matters: what the market or other owners will pay for players. And I've often thought about it like stocks. This especially rings true in dynasty leagues. For valuing stocks, one method is the discounted cash flow analysis. Basically that the value of a stock is worth the present value of the future cash flows discounted at some rate to account for risk. The higher the risk, the higher the discount rate and lower the value. This can actually be done in some fashion when comparing players. To at least think of their value tied to the future of all fantasy points discounted to account for the risks (i.e., poor offenses, injuries, age, etc.). We all do this instinctively anyway. For example, when looking at Corey Dillon or Laurence Maroney, it could be argued that the value of Maroney is higher than Dillon's in a dynasty league even though he's not currenty the starter. I think you could actually project a player's stats for the next 5 years and use a simple discount rate (10% for low risk, 20% for medium, and 30% for high risk players). This could give you a real sense statistically of who has more value depending on the stage of a players career. Good insight Wannabee.I would like to discuss the concept of value. Almost every one of my posts has that word in it. There are many ways "value" is used. Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value. This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions. This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed. I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks. This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.
I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations. For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value. The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage. Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards. Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important. In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.
Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100. I think this "value" is derived from the public perception. This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price. In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables. One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted). But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups. Another market variable is public perception. This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more. There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.
This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic. There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.
This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value". Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams. The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate. They are able to "buy low" and "sell high". A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):
a. acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low. At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne. Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs. This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.
b. trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside. This is a very important strategy. Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce. Willis last year at this time applies as well. I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year. We will know this time next year. Brown could apply also. But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy. I cannot buy it.
c. holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production. This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones. Who is the better "value"?
Conclusion:
The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production. I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board.
Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player. Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage. Usually, ADPs are for a long perid of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value). I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed. I bet they are higher than they should be. Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is. His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo. Andre Johnson is the same way. For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith. How crazy does that look now? The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league. This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.
Hope this helps.
About the same as any Hawkeye outside of Dallas Clark and maybe Ladell Betts. Kevin Kasper<Tim Dwight .... 'nuf saidI gotta tell ya wannabee, this is the first thread I check out of all the forums. Keep it going bud!! BTW, what are Kevin Kaspers chances of making an impact this year? Leave a link, I'll help answer yours.Do people like these posts? If so, I will continue to put them up. If not, I will spend more time with the family ....Well done. I think the concept of market values for players is valid. In a way this is the only thing that matters: what the market or other owners will pay for players. And I've often thought about it like stocks. This especially rings true in dynasty leagues. For valuing stocks, one method is the discounted cash flow analysis. Basically that the value of a stock is worth the present value of the future cash flows discounted at some rate to account for risk. The higher the risk, the higher the discount rate and lower the value. This can actually be done in some fashion when comparing players. To at least think of their value tied to the future of all fantasy points discounted to account for the risks (i.e., poor offenses, injuries, age, etc.). We all do this instinctively anyway. For example, when looking at Corey Dillon or Laurence Maroney, it could be argued that the value of Maroney is higher than Dillon's in a dynasty league even though he's not currenty the starter. I think you could actually project a player's stats for the next 5 years and use a simple discount rate (10% for low risk, 20% for medium, and 30% for high risk players). This could give you a real sense statistically of who has more value depending on the stage of a players career. Good insight Wannabee.I would like to discuss the concept of value. Almost every one of my posts has that word in it. There are many ways "value" is used. Around Footballguys.com, the word "value" refers to relative value. This basically means that player's value is weighed against the value of all players at all positions. This is simply the VBD (Value Based Drafting) that FBG speaks often about and developed. I will use the word "value" as meaning that player's worth as opposed to other players or picks. This "value" has nothing to do with talent or fantasy production, just the accepted value placed on the player.
I know each player's value is a little different depending on the league, and the league scoring rules, league size and starting lineup regulations. For instance, in PPR leagues, some WRs are worth more than others. In non-PPR leagues, these two WRs could flip flop in value. The same is true for RBs, and how the league scores yardage. Jerome Bettis and Stephen Davis were awesome values in leagues that gave little scoring for yards. Also, a league's starting lineup rules are important. In a league that you only have to start one RB, or get to start 4 RBs, or 2 QBs, change player values.
Think of each player's value (generically) being on a scale from 1 to 100. I think this "value" is derived from the public perception. This public perception is similar to a market philosophy where the market determines the price. In fantasy football, player values are derived from a multitude of variables. One is ADP (or an average of where that player was drafted). But, ADP alone is flawed because it does not take into account league size, scoring, or starting lineups. Another market variable is public perception. This can include a player coming off of injury, a player coming off of a huge (but abnormal) year, a player that is worth more in the NFL than fantasy football, and many more. There are other market variables that affect the "value" of the player.
This value fluctuates up and down and is very dynamic. There are several factors that help fluctaute the value including: injury (to said player or other players on team), coaching change, personnel change (trade, cut, or sign of teammates that affect value), etc.
This is all to set up how we, as fantasy footballers, can take advantage of this "value". Remember that this "value" is the player's perceived worth compared to other players of different positions on all teams. The fantasy owners that are the best at being able to see a situation where a player is undervalued as compared to his talent usually dominate. They are able to "buy low" and "sell high". A few situations that come to mind (for dynasty, but the theory works for redraft, too):
a. acquiring TO last season after suspension while his value was low. At his lowest, TO's value was approximately even with Wayne. Now, it is up there even with the almost any and every WR ... and above many RBs. This same principle is true for those acquiring McNabb cheap when he was injured.
b. trading away Kevin Jones this time last year when his value was greater than his talent and upside. This is a very important strategy. Some players are valued at times above the level that they could ever produce. Willis last year at this time applies as well. I foresee Caddy as the RB that fits the bill for this year. We will know this time next year. Brown could apply also. But, Caddy is valued by many as the 5th best RB in fantasy. I cannot buy it.
c. holding, or acquiring, stable and non-sexy players like Dunn, Tiki, and Mason at low prices compared to their fantasy production. This sounds simple, but you should see the drafts where Dunn goes 2-3 rounds behind Julius Jones or Jamal Lewis or Kevin Jones. Who is the better "value"?
Conclusion:
The "art" and "skill" that differentiates the very good fantasy owners from the average owner is the ability to identify players and situations where the value is either too high or too low compared to that player's fantasy production, taking into account the upside (or ceiling) of the fantasy production. I would urge you to keep track of the ADP, other trades in your league, and on this board.
Many people use the ADP as a basis to judge what others think of each player. Think of how flawed that is and how you (we) can take advantage. Usually, ADPs are for a long perid of time and do not take into account current events ... which throws off the ADP (player's value). I would look to see where the "sexy" and "groupthink" players are listed. I bet they are higher than they should be. Matt Jones is about as sexy (in a fantasy football way) a player as there is. His ADP is way too high for the expected level of production, imo. Andre Johnson is the same way. For a good example, think of how many times in redraft leagues over the past couple of years that Ashley Lelie was drafted ahead of Rod Smith. How crazy does that look now? The key is to identify the Smith's and Lelie's of the league. This is where knowing a player's value and comparing it to the talent (and fantasy production) comes into play in full force.
Hope this helps.
I will asume that you have no needs and it is not IDP. Let's look at the rookie that should be available:You should feel fairly certain that these players will be gone:Here is a short one for you.. Dynasty league. What are your thought on trading A. Rodgers and C. Houston for the 1.12 and 2.5 pick in this years rookie draft? I'm looking at it as future value and nothing that will help my team this year. Are the rookies at those picks comparable/better/or worse then the 2 guys I'd be giving up.
Also, I just found this blurb:The Vikings have reportedly become increasingly concerned with Chester Taylor's work ethic.I have been down on Chester Taylor more than the vast majority of people. In another post, I articulated why. Here is the post copied:
Yes, he does catch a lot of passes an had a decent ypc in Baltimore in limited duty, I am not a believer. Here is his stat line:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136
I think the Vikings will be a poor team this year and have to abandon the running game early and often. I look at the one game Taylor did start last year for Baltimore against a good Denver defense. He had the following stat line:
20 carries, 59 yds, 3.0 ypc, longest run 14 yds, 3 catches, 14 yds, 4.7 avg per catch, longest catch 8yds, and 1 fumble. This game included a nice four game stretch where Taylor had 3 fumbles in 4 games.
Here is the game by game stat line:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/gamelogs/2005
I would also ask everyone who is a Taylor fan to look at:
http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/302136/splits/2005
About a third of the way down the page, it shows the breakdown of production with 1-10 carries, 11-20 carries, and so on. If you notice, Taylow did great with 10 carries or less, having 96 carries, 443 yds and a 4.6 ypc. That is good. BUT, what happens if he gets 11 or more carries in a game? 21 carries, 44 yds, and a whopping 2.1 ypc.
Lastly, I would like you to notice that has a total of 7 TDs in 478 touches (carries and catches). I think his lack of TDs will keep his production down even further.
I would love to hear the Taylor supporters opinions and why they think I am wrong.
I read that, too. When you see, for the most part, my support Wilford, it is in non-PPR leagues. There is a reason for it. The guy gets TDs. Without going back through every time, in this thread or others, I pimped Wilford, most was for a WR4. I still like the upside of Wilford. Let's look at the other WRs in Jax:Matt Jones - great upside. The guy is a physical freak. He is huge and fast. But, as I posted in a thread above on this page, I still (probably in the minority) think Jones is unproven to the level of where his value is. Jones is being drafted before many proven WRs.Hey Wannabee,
Does this news/report/info change anything, in regards to some of your posts here ?
Just curious because I see you dropping his name a bit.
(Sorry , no link ... I will try to find one though)
"Bart Hubbuch, writing for the SportingNews, reports Jacksonville Jaguars WR Ernest Wilford will likely be the team's No. 3 receiver, even though he started the last half of last season for injured WR Reggie Williams. Lack of durability and speed make Wilford more valuable in a reserve role."
EDIT:
Came across my fantasy site, and I can't locate an actual link to this report ... it seems, on looking closer however, that this may be "opinion" only ... hard to say.
Any of these or other players/situations that anyone wants me to look up or analyze?Right now, I am trying to organize my thoughts on who will be value plays this year. More to come on that front when I finalize my thoughts.Are there any subjects anyone wants me to put time into researching, even though many are better than I am?
Some things I am bouncing around:
a. Assessing a players future production based on a strong finish from the previous year
b. Identifying the talent dropoff at certain positions and how to draft around these dropoffs
c. Using first downs and plays of 20+ yards as a possible telling point of future production
and a few others not yet solidified ....
I think some people overlook the value in knowing your league mates and what they value.Often through casual discussion, you can learn who and what certain owner value in terms of teams, positions and specific players. I even have a file where I have information jotted down about my league mates such as what is their favorite NFL team, their willingness to negotiate in a trade, specific players who they seem to like/dislike.Other than knowing your league's rules inside and out, what is the next thing you should concentrate on in an initial dynasty draft?
Great question. I do not know what the next thing is, but here are some things I think are important:a. Study ADPs, and other initial dynasty drafts, to get a good feel for when each player will be the best value for you.Other than knowing your league's rules inside and out, what is the next thing you should concentrate on in an initial dynasty draft?
I know some owner's who do like to give misinformation. If you know that its coming, it can still be helpful if you know how to read between the lines. Sometimes, it's not what people say, but what they don't say.Also, casual discussion about other teams can still lead to information when another owner's guard is down.Stan, I hear what you and Avery are saying. But, in my leagues, the other owners will feed you full of mis-information. They would like nothing more than to have you trading up, to leap frog them, for a player they do not want anyway.
It is sad that fantasy football is this way at times, but it is. And I do agree with the chatter part.
I am speaking from experience, recent experience. We had casual discussion, etc. Still, you never know. Most guys in serious leagues will not tip their hand to who they really like.I know some owner's who do like to give misinformation. If you know that its coming, it can still be helpful if you know how to read between the lines. Sometimes, it's not what people say, but what they don't say.Also, casual discussion about other teams can still lead to information when another owner's guard is down.Stan, I hear what you and Avery are saying. But, in my leagues, the other owners will feed you full of mis-information. They would like nothing more than to have you trading up, to leap frog them, for a player they do not want anyway.
It is sad that fantasy football is this way at times, but it is. And I do agree with the chatter part.
Not intentionally... Not to beat a dead horse on this topic, but similar to a business negotiation or a legal arbitration, information can be gathered and used if you are savvy enough to know what to pay attention to and what to ignore.I am speaking from experience, recent experience. We had casual discussion, etc. Still, you never know. Most guys in serious leagues will not tip their hand to who they really like.I know some owner's who do like to give misinformation. If you know that its coming, it can still be helpful if you know how to read between the lines. Sometimes, it's not what people say, but what they don't say.Also, casual discussion about other teams can still lead to information when another owner's guard is down.Stan, I hear what you and Avery are saying. But, in my leagues, the other owners will feed you full of mis-information. They would like nothing more than to have you trading up, to leap frog them, for a player they do not want anyway.
It is sad that fantasy football is this way at times, but it is. And I do agree with the chatter part.
I threw that question up there and I like the way you answered it. i.e. Get prepared. I like what you said in e. and my answer kind of relates to f. :What I had in mind was talent. For those of you who really get into the whole dynasty thing and following the draft like a religion, you can do a lot of damage by making a list of talented guys that maybe haven't broken out yet. Once you have that list you should use wannabe's research above to figure out what round to take them in.Thanks to Beto for stopping by. His post quoted above (post 127) on the initial rookie draft is a great post. The guy knows his stuff.
I would like to hear Beto's answer to the question, too.
Please let me know if I have misunderstood this. But, if you trade a pick for a player, it means that you cannot keep Davis (or Droughns). So, you could trade 1.04 for Edge and get another good player at 1.06. Or, you could keep Davis, Brown, take SJackson, and another stud at 1.06.If these are my choices, I do not trade the pick. I say this only because it allows you to keep an extra good player. Also, I do think you have a good plan. Without knowing much about your league, I like your plan and think it should work out for you.Picks or a Player...
10 Team league with 2 keepers (1 rookie and 1 vet)
My rookie is Reggie Brown
My only viable keepers are Dominick Davis and Ruben Droughns
I have the 4th pick and the 6th pick in the first round ( no second round pick).
The decision I need to make is do I keep my 2 first round picks or trade one of them to try and get one of the top backs?
If I keep the picks I could probably end of with 3 very good backs (Portis or Edge or C. Williams or Steven Jackson or Ronnie Brown or LaMOnt Jordon)and then draft WR in rounds 3,4,5.....or would it be better to have that stud before the draft even starts?
I was toying with the idea of taking a RB with pick #4 and then taking Steve Smith or Chad Johnson if still there at #6...I am least comfortable with that though.....
What do you think?
you are correct...if I trade pick for a player then I would NOT be able to keep Davis or Drougns.....So it sounds like you would keep Davis and then take the 2 best RB's available at #4 and #6.Please let me know if I have misunderstood this. But, if you trade a pick for a player, it means that you cannot keep Davis (or Droughns). So, you could trade 1.04 for Edge and get another good player at 1.06. Or, you could keep Davis, Brown, take SJackson, and another stud at 1.06.If these are my choices, I do not trade the pick. I say this only because it allows you to keep an extra good player. Also, I do think you have a good plan. Without knowing much about your league, I like your plan and think it should work out for you.Picks or a Player...
10 Team league with 2 keepers (1 rookie and 1 vet)
My rookie is Reggie Brown
My only viable keepers are Dominick Davis and Ruben Droughns
I have the 4th pick and the 6th pick in the first round ( no second round pick).
The decision I need to make is do I keep my 2 first round picks or trade one of them to try and get one of the top backs?
If I keep the picks I could probably end of with 3 very good backs (Portis or Edge or C. Williams or Steven Jackson or Ronnie Brown or LaMOnt Jordon)and then draft WR in rounds 3,4,5.....or would it be better to have that stud before the draft even starts?
I was toying with the idea of taking a RB with pick #4 and then taking Steve Smith or Chad Johnson if still there at #6...I am least comfortable with that though.....
What do you think?
I agree. I also think that there is no substitute for doing a ton of mock drafts to get a better feel for how the draft will flow. The best tool I know to do this is the Draft Dominator. For those of you now familiar, it will allow you to draft a team, while it drafts the other teams using ADP.I threw that question up there and I like the way you answered it. i.e. Get prepared. I like what you said in e. and my answer kind of relates to f. :What I had in mind was talent. For those of you who really get into the whole dynasty thing and following the draft like a religion, you can do a lot of damage by making a list of talented guys that maybe haven't broken out yet. Once you have that list you should use wannabe's research above to figure out what round to take them in.Thanks to Beto for stopping by. His post quoted above (post 127) on the initial rookie draft is a great post. The guy knows his stuff.
I would like to hear Beto's answer to the question, too.
I would keep Davis, assuming he is proven healthy. Then, I would take the next two players on my list, these are usually RBs since I am a RB hoarder.you are correct...if I trade pick for a player then I would NOT be able to keep Davis or Drougns.....So it sounds like you would keep Davis and then take the 2 best RB's available at #4 and #6.Please let me know if I have misunderstood this. But, if you trade a pick for a player, it means that you cannot keep Davis (or Droughns). So, you could trade 1.04 for Edge and get another good player at 1.06. Or, you could keep Davis, Brown, take SJackson, and another stud at 1.06.If these are my choices, I do not trade the pick. I say this only because it allows you to keep an extra good player. Also, I do think you have a good plan. Without knowing much about your league, I like your plan and think it should work out for you.Picks or a Player...
10 Team league with 2 keepers (1 rookie and 1 vet)
My rookie is Reggie Brown
My only viable keepers are Dominick Davis and Ruben Droughns
I have the 4th pick and the 6th pick in the first round ( no second round pick).
The decision I need to make is do I keep my 2 first round picks or trade one of them to try and get one of the top backs?
If I keep the picks I could probably end of with 3 very good backs (Portis or Edge or C. Williams or Steven Jackson or Ronnie Brown or LaMOnt Jordon)and then draft WR in rounds 3,4,5.....or would it be better to have that stud before the draft even starts?
I was toying with the idea of taking a RB with pick #4 and then taking Steve Smith or Chad Johnson if still there at #6...I am least comfortable with that though.....
What do you think?