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Ultimate Survivor - Leg 1 - League 4 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Lash
- Start date
Pictus Cat
Footballguy
Young, Vince TEN QB 8.02
Garcia, Jeff TBB QB 11.11
Edwards, Trent BUF QB 12.02
Three late with good schedules for first 5 weeks.
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 1.02
Turner, Michael ATL RB 3.11
White, LenDale TEN RB 5.11
Faulk, Kevin NEP RB 17.11
Perry, Chris CIN RB 21.11
Selected 2nd pick from the 4th KDS slot to get LT or Westy PPR. Turner and White seemed value with a couple PPR guys.
Johnson, Chad CIN WR 2.11
Welker, Wes NEP WR 4.02
Curtis, Kevin PHI WR 6.02
Clayton, Mark BAL WR 10.02
Jackson, Darrell DEN WR 13.11
Williams, Roydell TEN WR 14.02
Booker, Marty CHI WR 16.02
Stokley, Brandon DEN WR 19.11
KDS 2nd pick hoping to get a Cin WR because I think they will do well in the first 5 weeks.
8 total to and only Welker at 4.02 with a bye to keep points churining into the 3 WR/Flex spot.
Heap, Todd BAL TE 7.11
Crumpler, Alge TEN TE 9.11
Just took them when the value seemed there. Will be interesting to see if the backup fills the flex in this best ball any week.
Brown, Kris HOU PK 20.02
Nedney, Joe SFO PK 22.02
Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 15.11
Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def 18.02
Two each, none with byes.
Overall not a bad team, only two players with byes in week 4 in Welker and Faulk. Hoping to make the top 4. If it is KDS, I'm staying away from Bramel, getting thrown under the Bus, and Sea-wanna-be.
Garcia, Jeff TBB QB 11.11
Edwards, Trent BUF QB 12.02
Three late with good schedules for first 5 weeks.
Westbrook, Brian PHI RB 1.02
Turner, Michael ATL RB 3.11
White, LenDale TEN RB 5.11
Faulk, Kevin NEP RB 17.11
Perry, Chris CIN RB 21.11
Selected 2nd pick from the 4th KDS slot to get LT or Westy PPR. Turner and White seemed value with a couple PPR guys.
Johnson, Chad CIN WR 2.11
Welker, Wes NEP WR 4.02
Curtis, Kevin PHI WR 6.02
Clayton, Mark BAL WR 10.02
Jackson, Darrell DEN WR 13.11
Williams, Roydell TEN WR 14.02
Booker, Marty CHI WR 16.02
Stokley, Brandon DEN WR 19.11
KDS 2nd pick hoping to get a Cin WR because I think they will do well in the first 5 weeks.
8 total to and only Welker at 4.02 with a bye to keep points churining into the 3 WR/Flex spot.
Heap, Todd BAL TE 7.11
Crumpler, Alge TEN TE 9.11
Just took them when the value seemed there. Will be interesting to see if the backup fills the flex in this best ball any week.
Brown, Kris HOU PK 20.02
Nedney, Joe SFO PK 22.02
Ravens, Baltimore BAL Def 15.11
Cardinals, Arizona ARI Def 18.02
Two each, none with byes.
Overall not a bad team, only two players with byes in week 4 in Welker and Faulk. Hoping to make the top 4. If it is KDS, I'm staying away from Bramel, getting thrown under the Bus, and Sea-wanna-be.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
All right, so first, the KDS thing. Ordinarily those middle slots suck in terms of raw pick value, even with the ability to pick off the values and play the runs. I probably should’ve taken a later pick, but I had Gore a half tier ahead of Barber/Portis/Lynch as my #6 back, so I went with it. I was hating life in rounds 4-8 though, as I continually saw the bottom of my tiers snaked from under me. If I had to do it over again, I probably would have done something similar to bagger and taken a pick or two later – pick chart be damned. Thankfully my tiers didn’t dry up nearly as often later in the draft – just the opposite in fact – so I think I ended up with a solid roster.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers (8) 8.06
Jake Delhomme (9) 9.07
Josh McCown (4) 22.06
I was hoping to get a look at Romo in the late second after seeing how the other leagues went but he went at 2.01. I thought hard about Brees, but decided I couldn’t pass up Fitzgerald in the mid-second. In the end, Rodgers as the QB14 and Delhomme at QB18 should be a solid enough duo. Both of them have plenty of receiving options. Probably won’t use McCown, but rostered him in the last round anyway.
Running Back
Frank Gore (9) 1.06
Jamal Lewis (5) 4.06
Selvin Young (8) 6.06
Sammy Morris (4) 15.07
This didn’t go to plan at all. I held out some fleeting hope that I’d get a look at McGahee or MJD in the second. Happy to get Jamal Lewis in the 4th, but I really wanted Rudi Johnson as my #3. I took a risk he’d slide to the 6th – no dice. Selvin Young probably has similar upside I guess, but I’d rather not fuss over the Denver RB situation. I thought Sammy Morris was a steal in the 15th and was crossing my fingers that he’d last for two full rounds as I played the tier game mid-draft to get McMichael and the Bills defense. Probably should’ve fit another back in here in the middle rounds, especially since with Lewis’ bye, but the tiers just didn’t work out.
Wide Receiver
Larry Fitzgerald (7) 2.07
Greg Jennings (8) 5.07
Derrick Mason (10) 7.07
Vincent Jackson (9) 10.06
Ted Ginn (4) 11.07
Ronald Curry (5) 12.06
Demetrius Williams (10) 16.06
Arnaz Battle (9) 20.06
Pretty standard best ball strategy here. Middle tiers were plenty deep for me, so, although I wasn’t happy about missing on targets like Santonio Holmes, Jerrico Cotchery and Bobby Engram, I think this group should do fine. Seven receivers will play every week for me. I think every receiver from Jackson on was good value. Jackson could be a monster if Gates isn’t ready. Ginn, Curry and Williams all have big game potential and if Battle wins the slot job for Mike Martz he could contribute too. All behind three guys who should get plenty of targets every week. Given my lack of depth at RB, I’ll need this group to put up some numbers. Almost took Mike Vrabel in the 22nd round out of “team defense leagues are stupid” principle.
Tight End
Jason Witten (10) 3.07
Randy McMichael (5) 14.06
Witten is going to be on a lot of my rosters this year, I’d guess. He’s probably still just as productive as many in the mid-WR2 tier and will be a big relative advantage since there are plenty of WR2 values to be had later. I don’t trust Plaxico or the EEEEEEEEE for some reason, so once Bush, Romo and the rest of the low WR1 tier dried up, Witten was left. McMichael was a late value pick. He was the 19th TE off the board, despite what I think could be 40-500 potential.
Placekicker
Nate Kaeding (9) 18.06
Matt Bryant (10) 21.07
I had four kickers I wanted to roster, thinking that I’d sit with one and get three defenses. Kaeding was one of them, but by the 21st round, I didn’t see a RB or WR that would be as likely to score for me as a second kicker. Bryant is a Capybara special so he must be good, right?
Team Defenses
Buffalo (6) 13.07
Seattle (4) 17.07
Denver (8) 19.07
You might ask yourself, why does a DST hater have three defenses on his team? Strategery? I don’t know. I do know that, even though they probably won’t score much on paper, I want a good score every week – 4-7 points is going to make a difference in an all-play setup. I went with three to avoid bye week issues. I didn’t get one of my top four targets, but these three all have good matchups during the first five weeks and overlap well. I had Seattle and Denver in my top ten, so I was pretty pleased to have both fall to me pretty late. Hoping this pays off to the tune of 1-2 wins a week. If it doesn’t, it’s the final nail in the coffin of the stupid team defense thing.
This team *should* be solid enough to keep from getting handed a kiss of death 2-9 week. Without any major injuries, there shouldn't be a killer bye issue. Hopefully, it's good enough to finish 8-3 or better often enough to move on to round 2.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers (8) 8.06
Jake Delhomme (9) 9.07
Josh McCown (4) 22.06
I was hoping to get a look at Romo in the late second after seeing how the other leagues went but he went at 2.01. I thought hard about Brees, but decided I couldn’t pass up Fitzgerald in the mid-second. In the end, Rodgers as the QB14 and Delhomme at QB18 should be a solid enough duo. Both of them have plenty of receiving options. Probably won’t use McCown, but rostered him in the last round anyway.
Running Back
Frank Gore (9) 1.06
Jamal Lewis (5) 4.06
Selvin Young (8) 6.06
Sammy Morris (4) 15.07
This didn’t go to plan at all. I held out some fleeting hope that I’d get a look at McGahee or MJD in the second. Happy to get Jamal Lewis in the 4th, but I really wanted Rudi Johnson as my #3. I took a risk he’d slide to the 6th – no dice. Selvin Young probably has similar upside I guess, but I’d rather not fuss over the Denver RB situation. I thought Sammy Morris was a steal in the 15th and was crossing my fingers that he’d last for two full rounds as I played the tier game mid-draft to get McMichael and the Bills defense. Probably should’ve fit another back in here in the middle rounds, especially since with Lewis’ bye, but the tiers just didn’t work out.
Wide Receiver
Larry Fitzgerald (7) 2.07
Greg Jennings (8) 5.07
Derrick Mason (10) 7.07
Vincent Jackson (9) 10.06
Ted Ginn (4) 11.07
Ronald Curry (5) 12.06
Demetrius Williams (10) 16.06
Arnaz Battle (9) 20.06
Pretty standard best ball strategy here. Middle tiers were plenty deep for me, so, although I wasn’t happy about missing on targets like Santonio Holmes, Jerrico Cotchery and Bobby Engram, I think this group should do fine. Seven receivers will play every week for me. I think every receiver from Jackson on was good value. Jackson could be a monster if Gates isn’t ready. Ginn, Curry and Williams all have big game potential and if Battle wins the slot job for Mike Martz he could contribute too. All behind three guys who should get plenty of targets every week. Given my lack of depth at RB, I’ll need this group to put up some numbers. Almost took Mike Vrabel in the 22nd round out of “team defense leagues are stupid” principle.
Tight End
Jason Witten (10) 3.07
Randy McMichael (5) 14.06
Witten is going to be on a lot of my rosters this year, I’d guess. He’s probably still just as productive as many in the mid-WR2 tier and will be a big relative advantage since there are plenty of WR2 values to be had later. I don’t trust Plaxico or the EEEEEEEEE for some reason, so once Bush, Romo and the rest of the low WR1 tier dried up, Witten was left. McMichael was a late value pick. He was the 19th TE off the board, despite what I think could be 40-500 potential.
Placekicker
Nate Kaeding (9) 18.06
Matt Bryant (10) 21.07
I had four kickers I wanted to roster, thinking that I’d sit with one and get three defenses. Kaeding was one of them, but by the 21st round, I didn’t see a RB or WR that would be as likely to score for me as a second kicker. Bryant is a Capybara special so he must be good, right?
Team Defenses
Buffalo (6) 13.07
Seattle (4) 17.07
Denver (8) 19.07
You might ask yourself, why does a DST hater have three defenses on his team? Strategery? I don’t know. I do know that, even though they probably won’t score much on paper, I want a good score every week – 4-7 points is going to make a difference in an all-play setup. I went with three to avoid bye week issues. I didn’t get one of my top four targets, but these three all have good matchups during the first five weeks and overlap well. I had Seattle and Denver in my top ten, so I was pretty pleased to have both fall to me pretty late. Hoping this pays off to the tune of 1-2 wins a week. If it doesn’t, it’s the final nail in the coffin of the stupid team defense thing.
This team *should* be solid enough to keep from getting handed a kiss of death 2-9 week. Without any major injuries, there shouldn't be a killer bye issue. Hopefully, it's good enough to finish 8-3 or better often enough to move on to round 2.
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Lash
Footballguy
maybe overkill here with this summary but i enjoy this part: dissecting what i just did and reading other people's strategies, especially since we have nothing to hide for future trade talks LOL
Team Lash:
KDS strategy:
i saw the second tier having 5 players in it after the big five in the top tier, so after my KDS roll was terrible i was hoping to get a slot at the END of that second tier that i saw as Barber, Gore, RMoss, Brady, LJ ... luckily the nine hole was still there when my KDS pick was up 3rd from last and so i chose 9 over 7 and 8 which would give me picks 9, 16, and 28 out of the box
pre-draft general strategy
1) picking at 1.09 i wanted in order (Barber, Gore, RMoss)
2) when talent is near equal, pick players if possible under 4 criteria in this priority order...talented player, on a high scoring team, against mostly weak defenses in weeks 1-5, with no bye week in weeks 1-5
3) draft defenses that play against terrible, turnover prone teams and/or with bad/new QBs - immediately San Diego stood out - they are #1 DST on the board anyways and they play against 5 turnover prone non-playoff teams in weeks 1-5 - reach to get them early so i would only have to grab ONE more defense and could pick them very late
4) kickers in last two rounds
5) wait on QBs, have 2RB and 3WR by round 5, top TEs all have question marks with injury or schedule except for Witten
draft
1.09 Marion Barber - my pick and Barber, LJ, and RMoss were there, chose MB3 because he fit all four criteria above
2.04 Randy Moss - i don't know why he was there, he fits all criteria (NE schedule plays 4 nonplayoffs) except has week 4 bye
3.04 Reggie Bush - missed Colston by one pick, Reggie fits criteria (PPR!) except playing against some decent defenses in weeks 1-5
4.09 Laurence Maroney - didn't foresee this pick was thinking WR but the WR tier was exhausted - fits criteria except week 4 bye
5.04 Ben Roethlisberger - He and Palmer last of tier 2 went with Ben due to int's being costly and SOS - he fits all criteria
note: predraft strategy #5 is blown up, now have to draft 7 or 8 WRs because only have 1 even though he is WR1 overall
note 2: even though i didn't employ this strategy, Draft Dominator had me picking my top choice in rounds 1-5
6.09 Donald Driver - PPR and Rodgers really likes him from all reports - fits criteria except playing against decent defenses weeks 1-5
7.04 Lavernues Coles - last of a tier pick, chickened out on MHarrison - only criteria he fits is good player especially PPR-wise
8.09 San Diego - my first reach even though they are DST1, they play against fodder, should be turnover heaven - fit all criteria
9.04 Heath Miller - second questionable pick, was wanting VJax and don't know why i didn't - Miller does fit all criteria though
10.09 Duece McAllister - 3 targeted WRs didn't fall, went with RBush hedge with ADP in 7th rd - fits all criteria except schedule
11.04 Matt Leinart - insanely easy schedule - meets all criteria except he's not talented *gulp*
12.09 Donald Lee - again didn't want to reach for WR - fits criteria except playing against decent defenses weeks 1-5
13.04 James Jones - loading up with Packers, don't know if that's good or bad - criteria same as Driver/DLee
14.09 Ahmad Bradshaw - PPR and NYG came out today with AB seeing field alot - fits all criteria except week 4 bye
15.04 Chad Jackson - homerun swing, my favorite late pick, hedge against RMoss injury - fits all criteria except week 4 bye
16.09 Lorenzo Booker - PPR and Westy injury prone AND wants 10M a year or holding out - fits criteria except schedule
17.04 Terry Glenn - why not this late - meets all 4 criteria if healthy
18.09 Earl Bennett - another questionable pick, easily the most talented WR on CHI roster - talent and no bye week only criteria met
19.04 Brodie Croyle - if NE doesnt kill him week 1 and he keeps job, faces 4 horrible teams weeks 2-5 - talent, bad team, easy SOS
20.09 David Akers - kicker
21.04 Detroit Lions - don't laugh, targeted DST here will have TO feast on Ryan/Redman, Rodgers, Alex Smith, and Grossman
22.09 Phil Dawson - kicker
note: all grades below are obviously barring any future injuries which change everything
QB - Big Ben, Leinart, Croyle - with Leinart's and Croyle's schedule and didn't reach for Ben - GRADE: B+
RB - Barber, Maroney, RBush, Duece, Bradshaw, LBooker - only team in league with three top 16 RBs per FBG ranking - GRADE: A
WR - RMoss, Driver, Coles, Glenn, JamesJones, CJax, EBennett - need one of 4 bench to surprise - GRADE: C-
TE - HMiller, DLee - on two good teams and both get redzone targets hope they cover each other - GRADE: B-
K - Dawson, Akers - kickers both have tough schedules but maybe that keeps em out of endzone only - GRADE: C
DST - San Diego, Detroit - 9 of 9 games in turnover heaven, 15+ points weekly here - GRADE: A+
Overall - Barber, RMoss, Ben can all explode at any time, Ben and RMoss were in top6 in scoring last year in this format, weak WR depth, Ben and RMoss must stay healthy, i need ONE break from my WR bench and i need Coles/Driver PPR skills to keep them at a consistent score weekly - GRADE - B
Mulligans:
1) scary team if i'd have picked VJax in 9th and ZMiller/GOlsen/HMiller in 10th instead of HMiller in 9th, VJax has a very easy schedule and Gates likely not to play or at least not be effective
2) a pick of a possible healthy Marvin Harrison at 7.04 woulda put me in top four i'm pretty sure barring crazy stuff, but i thought take the safe Coles - could cost me who knows
3) could have went Jennings instead of Ben at 5.04
4) DMac Almost fell to me in 6th, would have drafted 9WR if he woulda and stayed with 4 RBs
5) coulda went with one kicker or one defense and grabbed another WR
very entertaining, hope i can make it to leg 2 ...
i would appreciate all feedback so i can improve - what am i drinking too much koolaid on above and what am i potentially underestimating?
Team Lash:
KDS strategy:
i saw the second tier having 5 players in it after the big five in the top tier, so after my KDS roll was terrible i was hoping to get a slot at the END of that second tier that i saw as Barber, Gore, RMoss, Brady, LJ ... luckily the nine hole was still there when my KDS pick was up 3rd from last and so i chose 9 over 7 and 8 which would give me picks 9, 16, and 28 out of the box
pre-draft general strategy
1) picking at 1.09 i wanted in order (Barber, Gore, RMoss)
2) when talent is near equal, pick players if possible under 4 criteria in this priority order...talented player, on a high scoring team, against mostly weak defenses in weeks 1-5, with no bye week in weeks 1-5
3) draft defenses that play against terrible, turnover prone teams and/or with bad/new QBs - immediately San Diego stood out - they are #1 DST on the board anyways and they play against 5 turnover prone non-playoff teams in weeks 1-5 - reach to get them early so i would only have to grab ONE more defense and could pick them very late
4) kickers in last two rounds
5) wait on QBs, have 2RB and 3WR by round 5, top TEs all have question marks with injury or schedule except for Witten
draft
1.09 Marion Barber - my pick and Barber, LJ, and RMoss were there, chose MB3 because he fit all four criteria above
2.04 Randy Moss - i don't know why he was there, he fits all criteria (NE schedule plays 4 nonplayoffs) except has week 4 bye
3.04 Reggie Bush - missed Colston by one pick, Reggie fits criteria (PPR!) except playing against some decent defenses in weeks 1-5
4.09 Laurence Maroney - didn't foresee this pick was thinking WR but the WR tier was exhausted - fits criteria except week 4 bye
5.04 Ben Roethlisberger - He and Palmer last of tier 2 went with Ben due to int's being costly and SOS - he fits all criteria
note: predraft strategy #5 is blown up, now have to draft 7 or 8 WRs because only have 1 even though he is WR1 overall
note 2: even though i didn't employ this strategy, Draft Dominator had me picking my top choice in rounds 1-5
6.09 Donald Driver - PPR and Rodgers really likes him from all reports - fits criteria except playing against decent defenses weeks 1-5
7.04 Lavernues Coles - last of a tier pick, chickened out on MHarrison - only criteria he fits is good player especially PPR-wise
8.09 San Diego - my first reach even though they are DST1, they play against fodder, should be turnover heaven - fit all criteria
9.04 Heath Miller - second questionable pick, was wanting VJax and don't know why i didn't - Miller does fit all criteria though
10.09 Duece McAllister - 3 targeted WRs didn't fall, went with RBush hedge with ADP in 7th rd - fits all criteria except schedule
11.04 Matt Leinart - insanely easy schedule - meets all criteria except he's not talented *gulp*
12.09 Donald Lee - again didn't want to reach for WR - fits criteria except playing against decent defenses weeks 1-5
13.04 James Jones - loading up with Packers, don't know if that's good or bad - criteria same as Driver/DLee
14.09 Ahmad Bradshaw - PPR and NYG came out today with AB seeing field alot - fits all criteria except week 4 bye
15.04 Chad Jackson - homerun swing, my favorite late pick, hedge against RMoss injury - fits all criteria except week 4 bye
16.09 Lorenzo Booker - PPR and Westy injury prone AND wants 10M a year or holding out - fits criteria except schedule
17.04 Terry Glenn - why not this late - meets all 4 criteria if healthy
18.09 Earl Bennett - another questionable pick, easily the most talented WR on CHI roster - talent and no bye week only criteria met
19.04 Brodie Croyle - if NE doesnt kill him week 1 and he keeps job, faces 4 horrible teams weeks 2-5 - talent, bad team, easy SOS
20.09 David Akers - kicker
21.04 Detroit Lions - don't laugh, targeted DST here will have TO feast on Ryan/Redman, Rodgers, Alex Smith, and Grossman
22.09 Phil Dawson - kicker
note: all grades below are obviously barring any future injuries which change everything
QB - Big Ben, Leinart, Croyle - with Leinart's and Croyle's schedule and didn't reach for Ben - GRADE: B+
RB - Barber, Maroney, RBush, Duece, Bradshaw, LBooker - only team in league with three top 16 RBs per FBG ranking - GRADE: A
WR - RMoss, Driver, Coles, Glenn, JamesJones, CJax, EBennett - need one of 4 bench to surprise - GRADE: C-
TE - HMiller, DLee - on two good teams and both get redzone targets hope they cover each other - GRADE: B-
K - Dawson, Akers - kickers both have tough schedules but maybe that keeps em out of endzone only - GRADE: C
DST - San Diego, Detroit - 9 of 9 games in turnover heaven, 15+ points weekly here - GRADE: A+
Overall - Barber, RMoss, Ben can all explode at any time, Ben and RMoss were in top6 in scoring last year in this format, weak WR depth, Ben and RMoss must stay healthy, i need ONE break from my WR bench and i need Coles/Driver PPR skills to keep them at a consistent score weekly - GRADE - B
Mulligans:
1) scary team if i'd have picked VJax in 9th and ZMiller/GOlsen/HMiller in 10th instead of HMiller in 9th, VJax has a very easy schedule and Gates likely not to play or at least not be effective
2) a pick of a possible healthy Marvin Harrison at 7.04 woulda put me in top four i'm pretty sure barring crazy stuff, but i thought take the safe Coles - could cost me who knows
3) could have went Jennings instead of Ben at 5.04
4) DMac Almost fell to me in 6th, would have drafted 9WR if he woulda and stayed with 4 RBs
5) coulda went with one kicker or one defense and grabbed another WR
very entertaining, hope i can make it to leg 2 ...
i would appreciate all feedback so i can improve - what am i drinking too much koolaid on above and what am i potentially underestimating?
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Okay, Was thrown into the fire at the last second and while I think this is an intriguing team, that could put up some nice points, I am probably going to finish last with my RB's
QB Palmer, Carson CIN QB 5.05
Rivers, Philip SDC QB 8.08
I love this tandem. I usually dont take QB early but 2 drafts I have drafted Palmer as last of a big dropoff tier. Would normally go 3 but with considering Rivers a top 10 guy, I think I am pretty set here and only went 2
RB Alexander, Shaun FA* RB 19.05
Bell, Tatum DET RB 13.05
Jackson, Brandon GBP RB 14.08
Johnson, Chris TEN RB ® 10.08
Portis, Clinton WAS RB 1.08
What a mess this is. Portis makes a fine #1 guy and pretty happy. Being thrown in and no preparation, I was thinking survivor over best ball and probably take Larry Johnson instead. Every time I was looking at a RB coming back around, they went and better values elsewhere. DeAngelo and Ahman Green being the big 2. Also would have taken Bush in the 2nd but he went 1 pick earlier also. So I drafted guys who just might start the season for a team. Bell/Jackson have got chances and this will be huge. Chris Johnson in PPR could be nice and add some needed points each week and still cant write off Alexander as not getting a job soon. Risky but at that point, what else is there. Was going to take a TJ Duckett type late also but I love Micheal Clayton and see a resurgence for him. Really should have taken Betts over Thomas in the 15th. Another RB mistake
WR Avery, Donnie STL WR ® 17.05
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 3.05
Clayton, Michael TBB WR 22.08
Harrison, Marvin IND WR 7.05
Owens, Terrell DAL WR 2.05
Patten, David NOS WR 16.08
Thomas, Devin WAS WR ® 15.05
Ward, Hines PIT WR 6.08
Williams, Roy DET WR 4.08
Okay. This group is an A and I hope they can make up the difference each week for my #2 RB loss if nothing works out there but some PPR points. I rolled the dice on Harrison as my #5 guy because he could end up being just as good as TO if healhy. Cant say much about the top 5 as good value on each I believe. Thought about Maroney over Roy Williams in the 4th but swung for the fences and had other RB targets. I believe this league is won right here at this position and want to start a 2-4 each week. Patton was to get some points in week 4 in case the rookies and Clayton dont work out.
TE Miller, Zach OAK TE 11.05
Scheffler, Tony DEN TE 9.05
Solid but unspectacular. TE's went early and often. Thought good value on Scheffler and I am really high on Zach Miller. Should not kill me but wont help me either. Almost took Dustin Keller over Thomas also in the 15th and looking back prefer that to Thomas for sure for my 2nd mistake I made by taking him
PKCrosby, Mason GBP PK 18.08
Hanson, Jason DET PK 21.05
Not worriea about cold and think Crosby gets more chances this year with no Brett there. Hanson is just a proven vet in the end.
49ers, San Francisco SFO Def 20.08
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 12.08
Really not sure how this one is going to work out. With no preparation, did not look at matchups like I normally would. Went for big play D's in the end and no bye week issues. SF was an improving D and they added Justin Smith this off-season to make it even better. Dallas is loaded for bear this year in the end.
Probably one of the most intriguing teams in all of the drafts. Probably the worst looking RB core but maybe the best WR core. See how it plays out in the end. Maybe they will let me go through as I think my longest pick on the ngiht took 12 seconds. I was thinking ahead quite a bit. Just nothing worked out
QB Palmer, Carson CIN QB 5.05
Rivers, Philip SDC QB 8.08
I love this tandem. I usually dont take QB early but 2 drafts I have drafted Palmer as last of a big dropoff tier. Would normally go 3 but with considering Rivers a top 10 guy, I think I am pretty set here and only went 2
RB Alexander, Shaun FA* RB 19.05
Bell, Tatum DET RB 13.05
Jackson, Brandon GBP RB 14.08
Johnson, Chris TEN RB ® 10.08
Portis, Clinton WAS RB 1.08
What a mess this is. Portis makes a fine #1 guy and pretty happy. Being thrown in and no preparation, I was thinking survivor over best ball and probably take Larry Johnson instead. Every time I was looking at a RB coming back around, they went and better values elsewhere. DeAngelo and Ahman Green being the big 2. Also would have taken Bush in the 2nd but he went 1 pick earlier also. So I drafted guys who just might start the season for a team. Bell/Jackson have got chances and this will be huge. Chris Johnson in PPR could be nice and add some needed points each week and still cant write off Alexander as not getting a job soon. Risky but at that point, what else is there. Was going to take a TJ Duckett type late also but I love Micheal Clayton and see a resurgence for him. Really should have taken Betts over Thomas in the 15th. Another RB mistake
WR Avery, Donnie STL WR ® 17.05
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 3.05
Clayton, Michael TBB WR 22.08
Harrison, Marvin IND WR 7.05
Owens, Terrell DAL WR 2.05
Patten, David NOS WR 16.08
Thomas, Devin WAS WR ® 15.05
Ward, Hines PIT WR 6.08
Williams, Roy DET WR 4.08
Okay. This group is an A and I hope they can make up the difference each week for my #2 RB loss if nothing works out there but some PPR points. I rolled the dice on Harrison as my #5 guy because he could end up being just as good as TO if healhy. Cant say much about the top 5 as good value on each I believe. Thought about Maroney over Roy Williams in the 4th but swung for the fences and had other RB targets. I believe this league is won right here at this position and want to start a 2-4 each week. Patton was to get some points in week 4 in case the rookies and Clayton dont work out.
TE Miller, Zach OAK TE 11.05
Scheffler, Tony DEN TE 9.05
Solid but unspectacular. TE's went early and often. Thought good value on Scheffler and I am really high on Zach Miller. Should not kill me but wont help me either. Almost took Dustin Keller over Thomas also in the 15th and looking back prefer that to Thomas for sure for my 2nd mistake I made by taking him
PKCrosby, Mason GBP PK 18.08
Hanson, Jason DET PK 21.05
Not worriea about cold and think Crosby gets more chances this year with no Brett there. Hanson is just a proven vet in the end.
49ers, San Francisco SFO Def 20.08
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 12.08
Really not sure how this one is going to work out. With no preparation, did not look at matchups like I normally would. Went for big play D's in the end and no bye week issues. SF was an improving D and they added Justin Smith this off-season to make it even better. Dallas is loaded for bear this year in the end.
Probably one of the most intriguing teams in all of the drafts. Probably the worst looking RB core but maybe the best WR core. See how it plays out in the end. Maybe they will let me go through as I think my longest pick on the ngiht took 12 seconds. I was thinking ahead quite a bit. Just nothing worked out
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fake_15
Footballguy
I had the choice to pick 4th. I only wanted 4th if I could get Peterson there. I didn't think he would drop to me at 4 so I decided to pick from the 12th position and get some value, not sure if it worked.
Kitna, Jon DET QB 4
Romo, Tony DAL QB 10
Hopefully Romo is my workhorse here and won't even have to use Kitna.
Graham, Earnest TBB RB 10
Green, Ahman HOU RB 8
Jones, Julius SEA RB 4
Jones, Kevin CHI RB 8
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 7
Rhodes, Dominic IND RB 4
Wright, Jason CLE RB 5
This is a decent RB crew not great. After looking at it there may be some guys splitting carries, Graham/Dunn and MJD/Taylor. KJones to start season on PUP list-Doh. Hopefully Green and JJones can carry the load for their teams and Rhodes to get some carries from Addai. Was targeting JLewis, RoyWillams and Calvin Johnson, all went right before my Graham pick. Berrian went right before my AGreen pick but I got a starting RB.
Bennett, Drew STL WR 5
Brown, Reggie PHI WR 7
Engram, Bobby SEA WR 4
Gage, Justin TEN WR 6
Johnson, Andre HOU WR 8
Stallworth, Donte' CLE WR 5
I'm weak in WR after looking at it. Only big name guy is Johnson everyone else a 2nd tier WR. I'm gonna need a couple of them to break out to have a chance. Was targeting Hines Ward and DMcfadden before the Engram pick. Both went a few spots ahead of me. I wanted to take Harrison there but thought it was too early so went with Engram, probably one of my bad decisions. Harrison went a few spots after.
Cooley, Chris WAS TE 10
Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE 7
Was between Cooley and Shockey here, took Cooley, Shockey went two picks later. Hope he can produce like he has.
Kasay, John CAR PK 9
Vinatieri, Adam IND PK 4
Was just targeting K with big legs.
Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def 7
Raiders, Oakland OAK Def 5
Rams, St. Louis STL Def 5
Wanted the Bears D, went right before Jac. Went with three D just to cover my ### if the other two had bad weeks. The Rams pick was an Autopick and I wasn't paying attention to Bye's.
Overall it's a decent team and am gonna need some players to break through it I'm gonna get into the second round.
Kitna, Jon DET QB 4
Romo, Tony DAL QB 10
Hopefully Romo is my workhorse here and won't even have to use Kitna.
Graham, Earnest TBB RB 10
Green, Ahman HOU RB 8
Jones, Julius SEA RB 4
Jones, Kevin CHI RB 8
Jones-Drew, Maurice JAC RB 7
Rhodes, Dominic IND RB 4
Wright, Jason CLE RB 5
This is a decent RB crew not great. After looking at it there may be some guys splitting carries, Graham/Dunn and MJD/Taylor. KJones to start season on PUP list-Doh. Hopefully Green and JJones can carry the load for their teams and Rhodes to get some carries from Addai. Was targeting JLewis, RoyWillams and Calvin Johnson, all went right before my Graham pick. Berrian went right before my AGreen pick but I got a starting RB.
Bennett, Drew STL WR 5
Brown, Reggie PHI WR 7
Engram, Bobby SEA WR 4
Gage, Justin TEN WR 6
Johnson, Andre HOU WR 8
Stallworth, Donte' CLE WR 5
I'm weak in WR after looking at it. Only big name guy is Johnson everyone else a 2nd tier WR. I'm gonna need a couple of them to break out to have a chance. Was targeting Hines Ward and DMcfadden before the Engram pick. Both went a few spots ahead of me. I wanted to take Harrison there but thought it was too early so went with Engram, probably one of my bad decisions. Harrison went a few spots after.
Cooley, Chris WAS TE 10
Lewis, Marcedes JAC TE 7
Was between Cooley and Shockey here, took Cooley, Shockey went two picks later. Hope he can produce like he has.
Kasay, John CAR PK 9
Vinatieri, Adam IND PK 4
Was just targeting K with big legs.
Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def 7
Raiders, Oakland OAK Def 5
Rams, St. Louis STL Def 5
Wanted the Bears D, went right before Jac. Went with three D just to cover my ### if the other two had bad weeks. The Rams pick was an Autopick and I wasn't paying attention to Bye's.
Overall it's a decent team and am gonna need some players to break through it I'm gonna get into the second round.
Garrard, David JAC QB - 7 7.12
Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB 4 8.01
Lemon, Cleo JAC QB - 7 21.12
Wallace, Seneca SEA QB - 4 22.01
Well I got Garrard to match my predraft plan to draft 2 of my top 12 qb's that didn't bye weeks of 4 or 5 but I had to take Hasselbeck as a value pick. I like Garrard's week 4 match up so I felt comfortable taking Hass. I missed out on my 3rd qb (Garcia/Campbell/Jackson) so I went in the direction of taking my backups. Will now at least score every week even if I am hit with injuries.
Dunn, Warrick TBB RB - 10 15.12
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB - 4 3.12
Peterson, Adrian CHI RB - 8 14.01
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB ® - 9 5.12
Taylor, Chester MIN RB - 8 10.01
Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB - 9 1.01
KDS - Took # because of LT. Jacobs is off week 4 but I think I should be all right that week with my other 4 backs. Stewart should see the goal line work at worst so that could be valuable a couple of weeks. Taylor/Dunn/Peterson should all get enough touches in the first 5 weeks to help out if Jacobs/Stewart don't deliver in a week.
Chambers, Chris SDC WR - 9 6.01
Crayton, Patrick DAL WR - 10 9.12
Hackett, D.J. CAR WR - 9 12.01
Meachem, Robert NOS WR - 9 13.12
Muhammad, Muhsin CAR WR - 9 16.01
Smith, Steve CAR WR - 9 2.12
No bye week issues and I expect to score well every week from this position. Locked up the Car passing game. Nabbed Steve Smith and hopefully with a healthy Delhomme I should get decent numbers out of either Hackett or Muhammad every week. Chambers and Crayton should provided steady points every week. Meachem could be a boom pick but if he fails I am not worried.
Gates, Antonio SDC TE - 9 4.01
Olsen, Greg CHI TE - 8 11.12
Probably should have waited on my TE but if healthy enough Gates is a top performer and I am high on Olsen.
Longwell, Ryan MIN PK - 8 20.01
Reed, Jeff PIT PK - 6 19.12
Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def - 7 17.12
Panthers, Carolina CAR Def - 9 18.01
Best of what was left.
Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB 4 8.01
Lemon, Cleo JAC QB - 7 21.12
Wallace, Seneca SEA QB - 4 22.01
Well I got Garrard to match my predraft plan to draft 2 of my top 12 qb's that didn't bye weeks of 4 or 5 but I had to take Hasselbeck as a value pick. I like Garrard's week 4 match up so I felt comfortable taking Hass. I missed out on my 3rd qb (Garcia/Campbell/Jackson) so I went in the direction of taking my backups. Will now at least score every week even if I am hit with injuries.
Dunn, Warrick TBB RB - 10 15.12
Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB - 4 3.12
Peterson, Adrian CHI RB - 8 14.01
Stewart, Jonathan CAR RB ® - 9 5.12
Taylor, Chester MIN RB - 8 10.01
Tomlinson, Ladainian SDC RB - 9 1.01
KDS - Took # because of LT. Jacobs is off week 4 but I think I should be all right that week with my other 4 backs. Stewart should see the goal line work at worst so that could be valuable a couple of weeks. Taylor/Dunn/Peterson should all get enough touches in the first 5 weeks to help out if Jacobs/Stewart don't deliver in a week.
Chambers, Chris SDC WR - 9 6.01
Crayton, Patrick DAL WR - 10 9.12
Hackett, D.J. CAR WR - 9 12.01
Meachem, Robert NOS WR - 9 13.12
Muhammad, Muhsin CAR WR - 9 16.01
Smith, Steve CAR WR - 9 2.12
No bye week issues and I expect to score well every week from this position. Locked up the Car passing game. Nabbed Steve Smith and hopefully with a healthy Delhomme I should get decent numbers out of either Hackett or Muhammad every week. Chambers and Crayton should provided steady points every week. Meachem could be a boom pick but if he fails I am not worried.
Gates, Antonio SDC TE - 9 4.01
Olsen, Greg CHI TE - 8 11.12
Probably should have waited on my TE but if healthy enough Gates is a top performer and I am high on Olsen.
Longwell, Ryan MIN PK - 8 20.01
Reed, Jeff PIT PK - 6 19.12
Eagles, Philadelphia PHI Def - 7 17.12
Panthers, Carolina CAR Def - 9 18.01
Best of what was left.
BusMan
Footballguy
I'll post my team write up later, but for now I wanted to throw out how I see this league shaking down.
Code:
Team W LJene Bramel 48 7by_the_sea_wannabe 45 10 fake_15 36 19BusMan 34 21 Pictus Cat 32 23 Raider Nation 30 25 John Norton 27 28 Lash 24 31 bagger 21 34 bucki4life 17 38 crippler 8 47 Usual21 8 47fake_15
Footballguy
So I got that going for me.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
I can live with this.
lol
KDS Strategy
I had the option to pick any draft slot I wanted, and picked 10th. 99% of people on this board would have picked 1st. However I purposely picked 10th as I knew sick value would drop to me in round 1 with a RB and I would get 2 elite WRs with the NFFC twist of picking 2.03 and 3.03. I also picked 10th to manipulate the 2 on the turn waiting to grab players I would normally pick in round x and getting them in round x+1. My prediction held true to form.
QB
Favre, Brett FA* QB - - 12.10
Flacco, Joe BAL QB ® - 10 22.10
McNabb, Donovan PHI QB - 7 7.03
Warner, Kurt ARI QB - 7 13.03
Getting McNabb in the early 7th round was a gift, one of many I received in this draft. Normally I wait much longer on grabbing QBs in this format, but with so many people grabbing QBs earlier than they should, waiting until round 7 to get McNabb was too juicy to pass up. With his post week 5 bye, I was set at QB for the first 5 weeks of round 1. Filled out the balance of my QB positions with Favre who may be on a team by this weekend, Warner who could very likely be starting before the end of round 1, and a complete upside pick of Flacco who will be starting for the Ravens week 1.
RB
Fargas, Justin OAK RB - 5 11.03
Foster, De'shaun SFO RB - 9 15.03
Johnson, Larry KCC RB - 6 1.10
Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB ® - 6 9.03
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB - 9 6.10
When I decided to pick 10th, I had it in my mind that I wanted to get Larry Johnson in that spot, who should easily outperform the draft slot. In this format I wanted to get 1 stud RB, a pool of other RBs to contribute to my RB2 slot, and constantly having a WR in the flex. This is the key to performing in this format...something that was lost on many drafting. But I'll get more into that in the WR section.
My other RBs consist of 3 RBs who are in RBBC, but both Fargas and Williams are the starters and should see the majority of the time before week 6. Foster will be catching a lot of balls out of the backfield and Mendenhall is a huge upside pick that may never see my starting lineup, but if he does, watch out.
Not having a bye week for this group will be huge for me. This group is about as good as I could have wanted to get. I would have preferred to get Lendale the Choco Donut as my RB2, but I'll live.
WR
Berrian, Bernard MIN WR - 8 8.10
Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR - 6 4.10
Colston, Marques NOS WR - 9 3.03
Randle El, Antwaan WAS WR - 10 16.10
Robinson, Laurent ATL WR - 7 14.10
Walter, Kevin HOU WR - 8 10.10
Wayne, Reggie IND WR - 4 2.03
Success in these leagues is directly correlated with WR quality and depth. Grabbing 3 WRs through 4 rounds was also first and foremost in my mind when I picked the 10 slot. I expect to "start" 4 WRs every week, with the possible exception of week 4 when Wayne is out.
Not paying enough attention to the scoring nuances of PPR, starting 3 WRs, and having a flex is a mistake most people, even veterans make in WCOFF and NFFC formats. This draft was no different. Normally I would have been even heavier on WRs if this was a league that ran out all 16 weeks. However with only 1 WR having a bye week through this first round any more would have been overkill at the expense of other positions.
This is the deepest and most talented WR corps in the draft, and it will show when I am in the top 2 going on to the next round.
TE
Clark, Desmond CHI TE - 8 17.03
Shockey, Jeremy NYG TE - 4 5.03
I knew I wanted an "elite" TE, and was quite surprised how early so many TEs were going. I got the last of the elite group with Shockey. I doubt there is a ton of "value" at 5.03 but there were no compelling RBs or WRs that would make the equivalent impact to their positions that Shockey will. For a backup I was targeting Crumpler but he was taken a few picks before I got him, so decided to wait and grab a TE who consistantly puts up decent numbers so I won't get goose-egged out of this position on a week.
PK
Mehlhaff, Taylor NOS PK ® - 9 19.03
Rackers, Neil ARI PK - 7 18.10
After getting Rackers who won't have a bye in round 1, I grabbed Mehlhaff as he will be the starter over Gramatica on a very prolific scoring offense. A sneaky pick that may payoff. If it doesn't, who cares...I have Rackers.
DT
Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def - 7 21.03
Saints, New Orleans NOS Def - 9 20.10
Complete throw away position in this format. I picked two teams that didn't have a bye in round 1 in the 2nd to last two rounds. I will still likely outperform people here every week who drafted DTs 8 rounds earlier.
Cakeboy gives this draft a 9/10
I had the option to pick any draft slot I wanted, and picked 10th. 99% of people on this board would have picked 1st. However I purposely picked 10th as I knew sick value would drop to me in round 1 with a RB and I would get 2 elite WRs with the NFFC twist of picking 2.03 and 3.03. I also picked 10th to manipulate the 2 on the turn waiting to grab players I would normally pick in round x and getting them in round x+1. My prediction held true to form.
QB
Favre, Brett FA* QB - - 12.10
Flacco, Joe BAL QB ® - 10 22.10
McNabb, Donovan PHI QB - 7 7.03
Warner, Kurt ARI QB - 7 13.03
Getting McNabb in the early 7th round was a gift, one of many I received in this draft. Normally I wait much longer on grabbing QBs in this format, but with so many people grabbing QBs earlier than they should, waiting until round 7 to get McNabb was too juicy to pass up. With his post week 5 bye, I was set at QB for the first 5 weeks of round 1. Filled out the balance of my QB positions with Favre who may be on a team by this weekend, Warner who could very likely be starting before the end of round 1, and a complete upside pick of Flacco who will be starting for the Ravens week 1.
RB
Fargas, Justin OAK RB - 5 11.03
Foster, De'shaun SFO RB - 9 15.03
Johnson, Larry KCC RB - 6 1.10
Mendenhall, Rashard PIT RB ® - 6 9.03
Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB - 9 6.10
When I decided to pick 10th, I had it in my mind that I wanted to get Larry Johnson in that spot, who should easily outperform the draft slot. In this format I wanted to get 1 stud RB, a pool of other RBs to contribute to my RB2 slot, and constantly having a WR in the flex. This is the key to performing in this format...something that was lost on many drafting. But I'll get more into that in the WR section.
My other RBs consist of 3 RBs who are in RBBC, but both Fargas and Williams are the starters and should see the majority of the time before week 6. Foster will be catching a lot of balls out of the backfield and Mendenhall is a huge upside pick that may never see my starting lineup, but if he does, watch out.
Not having a bye week for this group will be huge for me. This group is about as good as I could have wanted to get. I would have preferred to get Lendale the Choco Donut as my RB2, but I'll live.
WR
Berrian, Bernard MIN WR - 8 8.10
Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR - 6 4.10
Colston, Marques NOS WR - 9 3.03
Randle El, Antwaan WAS WR - 10 16.10
Robinson, Laurent ATL WR - 7 14.10
Walter, Kevin HOU WR - 8 10.10
Wayne, Reggie IND WR - 4 2.03
Success in these leagues is directly correlated with WR quality and depth. Grabbing 3 WRs through 4 rounds was also first and foremost in my mind when I picked the 10 slot. I expect to "start" 4 WRs every week, with the possible exception of week 4 when Wayne is out.
Not paying enough attention to the scoring nuances of PPR, starting 3 WRs, and having a flex is a mistake most people, even veterans make in WCOFF and NFFC formats. This draft was no different. Normally I would have been even heavier on WRs if this was a league that ran out all 16 weeks. However with only 1 WR having a bye week through this first round any more would have been overkill at the expense of other positions.
This is the deepest and most talented WR corps in the draft, and it will show when I am in the top 2 going on to the next round.
TE
Clark, Desmond CHI TE - 8 17.03
Shockey, Jeremy NYG TE - 4 5.03
I knew I wanted an "elite" TE, and was quite surprised how early so many TEs were going. I got the last of the elite group with Shockey. I doubt there is a ton of "value" at 5.03 but there were no compelling RBs or WRs that would make the equivalent impact to their positions that Shockey will. For a backup I was targeting Crumpler but he was taken a few picks before I got him, so decided to wait and grab a TE who consistantly puts up decent numbers so I won't get goose-egged out of this position on a week.
PK
Mehlhaff, Taylor NOS PK ® - 9 19.03
Rackers, Neil ARI PK - 7 18.10
After getting Rackers who won't have a bye in round 1, I grabbed Mehlhaff as he will be the starter over Gramatica on a very prolific scoring offense. A sneaky pick that may payoff. If it doesn't, who cares...I have Rackers.
DT
Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def - 7 21.03
Saints, New Orleans NOS Def - 9 20.10
Complete throw away position in this format. I picked two teams that didn't have a bye in round 1 in the 2nd to last two rounds. I will still likely outperform people here every week who drafted DTs 8 rounds earlier.
Cakeboy gives this draft a 9/10
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I guess Bus does not believe in WR theory with his rankings. Hey Bagger.
Even though I dont like my RB situation, I pretty well guarantee that I get more than 8 wins on the season. MY WR's alone will lead to one huge week when Harrison is back and healthy and blowing things up.
Even though I dont like my RB situation, I pretty well guarantee that I get more than 8 wins on the season. MY WR's alone will lead to one huge week when Harrison is back and healthy and blowing things up.
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BusMan
Footballguy
KDS Decision
Honestly I was a bit conflicted about what to do with my KDS selection. I reviewed Pasquino's 12 team value article from 2007 to get a snapshot of the "pure value" of the various picks, and this led me to select a top four pick if possible. But when I set up DD with our league requirements and ran a few mocks by both value and ADP, I saw a valley of value in the middle of the draft. This solidified my idea to pick early, but also made me think about picking later in the first to get more of the top guys. Ultimately, I decided to take the third pick when it was still there at my KDS slot, as I wanted Westbrook but would be happy with ADP. If the first through third picks had already been selected, I would've dropped back to eight or nine, as I had Marshawn Lynch fourth on my board and I would want to take a slot where I could get him without reaching, while also getting good value in the subsequent rounds.
Pre Draft Analysis/Setup
I set up the Projections Dominator with a diverse distribution of weights across the various staff members, based on where they lined up with my gut on various players. I updated the setup tabs and imported the projections and setting into DD. Once in DD, I weighted the first five weeks equally, while giving no weight to the rest of the season. This created a VBD list that didn't have much at all to do with ADP. I planned to follow value rather than ADP, especially at the beginning of the draft, as I felt this would give me an edge in this short sprint league.
The Draft
I was sad to see that bostonfred didn't end up making it to the draft, as it would've been fun to have him involved in the chatter. But major propers to crippler for stepping up and filling in for fred admirably. I was hoping against hope that Westy would fall to me at #3, but it didn't happen so I easily took my #3 player...
1.03 - Adrian Peterson, RB - MIN/8: This was a no-brainer with LT2 and Westy gone. He's the cornerstone of the team, and he's not off during Round 1.
2.10 - T.J. Houshmanzadeh, WR - CIN/8: Manzilly was the #3 WR on my board given the short time frame of the league. Early in the second I thought he just might make it around to me in the third, but then right before I picked I remembered we were doing third-round serpentine. I'm really glad I remembered and immediately snatched him up. For some reason I was delusional about Romo maybe making it here--if he had I would've taken him, as I had him as my #1 QB by far.
3.10 - Edgerrin James, RB - ARI/7: I'm not super high on Edge, but I think he's a mid-range RB2. I like his situation better than Turner or FWP, the other two backs I was considering here. Jacobs could've been an option here too, but I'm not keen on his week four bye this early in the draft.
4.03 - Tony Gonzalez, TE - KC/6: This was the best value pick according to DD, although I typically wait longer to grab my first TE. I was sure he wouldn't still be on the board when I picked again at 5.10, and I didn't much like the options at RB and WR right here, so this pick feels OK.
5.10 - Roddy White, WR - ATL/7: Roddy was WR19 on my board, which slots him as a slightly below average WR2. I didn't think he'd make it back to me after the turn, although that could just be paranoia. Who is going to throw him the ball you ask? Honestly, I don't know. Hopefully he'll be a security blanket for them in the early part of the season.
6.03 - Joey Galloway, WR - TB/10: With the roster requirements and the PPR scoring, its time to keep adding WRs. I really like Galloway in the best ball format, and he's good value as a third wide out.
7.10 - Jay Cutler, QB - Den/8: I admit it, I'm a Broncos homer. That said, Cutler is the only Bronco I ended up drafting. As one of the later QB1s off the board, I love his upside. But given that he's never been a stud before, I've pretty much determined at this point that I'll be taking three QBs overall. Kevin Smith was a consideration here, but I noted that the other drafters at the turn didn't have any QBs yet, so I assumed Jay wouldn't make it back to me at 8.03.
8.03 - Kevin Smith, RB - DET/4: DD had been pimping Smith for well over a round now, and I like his chances as my third back. Despite having a week four bye, I think he has a decent shot at scoring for me in the other weeks of this round.
9.10 - Jason Campbell, QB - WAS/10: Sensing my opportunity to grab a second QB was slipping away, and not having a surefire stud on the squad, I took the best available on my board. Kinda a meh pick, although I guess I wouldn't be too surprised if Campbell scored a week or two for me.
10.03 - Sidney Rice, WR - MIN/8: Back to loading up on WRs. I was hoping Crayton or Clayton would make it to me here, but it wasn't to be. Looking back I should've gone WR at 9.10 and snagged Campbell here. Nonetheless, I like Rice, despite his sketchy QB situation. He's definitely the best receiving option on a run-first team. Hopefully he and TJax can hook up a couple times for me during the first five weeks of the NFL season. That would be more than awesome from my fourth WR.
11.10 - Reggie Williams, WR - JAC/7: Williams seemed to be the value play here, especially with Porter's early season status iffy. I like Garrard and the Jacksonville offense---hopefully Reggie Dub will snag some scores early on.
12.03 - Pittsburgh Steelers, DEF - PIT/6 - A bit earlier than I like to take a defense, but I had them #2 on my board and I didn't think they'd make it back to me. They have no byes to deal with and I'm in good shape to not get stuck with only one team defense like I did in last year's Staff/MB NFFC challenge.
13.10 - Derrick Ward, RB - NYG/4: Despite his bye week, DD kept telling me Ward was the best back out there, especially for my weakest weeks. You see, as the draft went on, I tweaked my Game-by-Game weights to give a bonus to players predicited to do well during my lowest scorings weeks. Ideally Ward will give me a boost in weeks two and five, if he even manages to crack the scoring lineup.
14.03 - L.J. Smith, TE - PHI/7: I like Smith as my second TE. Solid value here.
15.10 - Tarvaris Jackson, QB - MIN/8: I've been slowly warming up to Jackson this off season, and obviously I like the Minnesota offense's chances. He had been on my radar screen for a few rounds at this point, and I decided to pull the trigger here. This gives me three opening day starting QBs, each without byes. So I simply get the highest scorer of the three each week. I like my chances with that---especially if Jackson hooks up with Rice for a score a couple times in a game or two.
16.03 - Ernest Wilford, WR - MIA/4: WR Depth for my weaker weeks. That is all.
17.10 - Fred Jackson, RB - BUF/6: Jackson shouldn't see the scoring squad, but he's decent insurance if Lynch were to miss any time due to a suspension or something like that. I like Buffalo's opening schedule and their offensive trajectory.
18.03 - Ike Hilliard, WR - TB/10: One of the last "starting" WRs still available. What's this, I have the Tampa Bay receiving game locked up? I'm not expecting fireworks, but its solid and it works for me.
19.10 - Houston Texans, DEF - HOU/8: This selection was made due to a complementary schedule with my number one defense---Pittsburgh.
20.03 - Kansas City, DEF - KC/6: We're really flying through these last rounds. Early on I wasn't so sure we'd be done by 1:30, but now 12:30 is within reach. With no kickers yet, I decide to grab another insurance defense (figuring any RBs/WRs/TEs/QBs that are going to score for me are already on my roster) without a bye issue. Just like with my QBs, I'll get to grab the best of three scores each week---which I like a lot.
21.10 - Robbie Gould, PK - CHI/8: Not my first choice of kickers, but at least he doesn't have a bye week problem.
22.03 - Rian Lindell, PK - BUF/6: Ditto.
The Team
QB Jay Culter, DEN/8QB Jason Campbell, WAS/10QB Tarvaris Jackson, MIN/8RB Adrian Peterson, MIN/8RB Edgerrin James, ARI/7RB Kevin Smith, DET/4RB Derrick Ward, NYG/4RB Fred Jackson, BUF/6WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN/8WR Roddy White, ATL/7WR Joey Galloway, TB/10WR Sidney Rice, MIN/8WR Reggie Williams, JAC/7WR Ernest Wilford, MIA/4WR Ike Hilliard, TB/10TE Tony Gonzalez, KC/6TE L.J. Smith, PHI/6PK Robbie Gould, CHI/8PK Rian Lindell, BUF/6DEF Pittsburgh, PIT/6DEF Houston, HOU/8DEF Kansas City, KC/6I like my QBs/DEFs/TEs a lot.I like my WRs OK.
I might have some week four trouble with my RBs.
My PKs are meh, with is OK for PKs.
The Results...
...remain to be seen, but I fully expect to be in contention for the final playoff spot heading into week five.
It was fun guys good luck to all!
Honestly I was a bit conflicted about what to do with my KDS selection. I reviewed Pasquino's 12 team value article from 2007 to get a snapshot of the "pure value" of the various picks, and this led me to select a top four pick if possible. But when I set up DD with our league requirements and ran a few mocks by both value and ADP, I saw a valley of value in the middle of the draft. This solidified my idea to pick early, but also made me think about picking later in the first to get more of the top guys. Ultimately, I decided to take the third pick when it was still there at my KDS slot, as I wanted Westbrook but would be happy with ADP. If the first through third picks had already been selected, I would've dropped back to eight or nine, as I had Marshawn Lynch fourth on my board and I would want to take a slot where I could get him without reaching, while also getting good value in the subsequent rounds.
Pre Draft Analysis/Setup
I set up the Projections Dominator with a diverse distribution of weights across the various staff members, based on where they lined up with my gut on various players. I updated the setup tabs and imported the projections and setting into DD. Once in DD, I weighted the first five weeks equally, while giving no weight to the rest of the season. This created a VBD list that didn't have much at all to do with ADP. I planned to follow value rather than ADP, especially at the beginning of the draft, as I felt this would give me an edge in this short sprint league.
The Draft
I was sad to see that bostonfred didn't end up making it to the draft, as it would've been fun to have him involved in the chatter. But major propers to crippler for stepping up and filling in for fred admirably. I was hoping against hope that Westy would fall to me at #3, but it didn't happen so I easily took my #3 player...
1.03 - Adrian Peterson, RB - MIN/8: This was a no-brainer with LT2 and Westy gone. He's the cornerstone of the team, and he's not off during Round 1.
2.10 - T.J. Houshmanzadeh, WR - CIN/8: Manzilly was the #3 WR on my board given the short time frame of the league. Early in the second I thought he just might make it around to me in the third, but then right before I picked I remembered we were doing third-round serpentine. I'm really glad I remembered and immediately snatched him up. For some reason I was delusional about Romo maybe making it here--if he had I would've taken him, as I had him as my #1 QB by far.
3.10 - Edgerrin James, RB - ARI/7: I'm not super high on Edge, but I think he's a mid-range RB2. I like his situation better than Turner or FWP, the other two backs I was considering here. Jacobs could've been an option here too, but I'm not keen on his week four bye this early in the draft.
4.03 - Tony Gonzalez, TE - KC/6: This was the best value pick according to DD, although I typically wait longer to grab my first TE. I was sure he wouldn't still be on the board when I picked again at 5.10, and I didn't much like the options at RB and WR right here, so this pick feels OK.
5.10 - Roddy White, WR - ATL/7: Roddy was WR19 on my board, which slots him as a slightly below average WR2. I didn't think he'd make it back to me after the turn, although that could just be paranoia. Who is going to throw him the ball you ask? Honestly, I don't know. Hopefully he'll be a security blanket for them in the early part of the season.
6.03 - Joey Galloway, WR - TB/10: With the roster requirements and the PPR scoring, its time to keep adding WRs. I really like Galloway in the best ball format, and he's good value as a third wide out.
7.10 - Jay Cutler, QB - Den/8: I admit it, I'm a Broncos homer. That said, Cutler is the only Bronco I ended up drafting. As one of the later QB1s off the board, I love his upside. But given that he's never been a stud before, I've pretty much determined at this point that I'll be taking three QBs overall. Kevin Smith was a consideration here, but I noted that the other drafters at the turn didn't have any QBs yet, so I assumed Jay wouldn't make it back to me at 8.03.
8.03 - Kevin Smith, RB - DET/4: DD had been pimping Smith for well over a round now, and I like his chances as my third back. Despite having a week four bye, I think he has a decent shot at scoring for me in the other weeks of this round.
9.10 - Jason Campbell, QB - WAS/10: Sensing my opportunity to grab a second QB was slipping away, and not having a surefire stud on the squad, I took the best available on my board. Kinda a meh pick, although I guess I wouldn't be too surprised if Campbell scored a week or two for me.
10.03 - Sidney Rice, WR - MIN/8: Back to loading up on WRs. I was hoping Crayton or Clayton would make it to me here, but it wasn't to be. Looking back I should've gone WR at 9.10 and snagged Campbell here. Nonetheless, I like Rice, despite his sketchy QB situation. He's definitely the best receiving option on a run-first team. Hopefully he and TJax can hook up a couple times for me during the first five weeks of the NFL season. That would be more than awesome from my fourth WR.
11.10 - Reggie Williams, WR - JAC/7: Williams seemed to be the value play here, especially with Porter's early season status iffy. I like Garrard and the Jacksonville offense---hopefully Reggie Dub will snag some scores early on.
12.03 - Pittsburgh Steelers, DEF - PIT/6 - A bit earlier than I like to take a defense, but I had them #2 on my board and I didn't think they'd make it back to me. They have no byes to deal with and I'm in good shape to not get stuck with only one team defense like I did in last year's Staff/MB NFFC challenge.
13.10 - Derrick Ward, RB - NYG/4: Despite his bye week, DD kept telling me Ward was the best back out there, especially for my weakest weeks. You see, as the draft went on, I tweaked my Game-by-Game weights to give a bonus to players predicited to do well during my lowest scorings weeks. Ideally Ward will give me a boost in weeks two and five, if he even manages to crack the scoring lineup.
14.03 - L.J. Smith, TE - PHI/7: I like Smith as my second TE. Solid value here.
15.10 - Tarvaris Jackson, QB - MIN/8: I've been slowly warming up to Jackson this off season, and obviously I like the Minnesota offense's chances. He had been on my radar screen for a few rounds at this point, and I decided to pull the trigger here. This gives me three opening day starting QBs, each without byes. So I simply get the highest scorer of the three each week. I like my chances with that---especially if Jackson hooks up with Rice for a score a couple times in a game or two.
16.03 - Ernest Wilford, WR - MIA/4: WR Depth for my weaker weeks. That is all.
17.10 - Fred Jackson, RB - BUF/6: Jackson shouldn't see the scoring squad, but he's decent insurance if Lynch were to miss any time due to a suspension or something like that. I like Buffalo's opening schedule and their offensive trajectory.
18.03 - Ike Hilliard, WR - TB/10: One of the last "starting" WRs still available. What's this, I have the Tampa Bay receiving game locked up? I'm not expecting fireworks, but its solid and it works for me.
19.10 - Houston Texans, DEF - HOU/8: This selection was made due to a complementary schedule with my number one defense---Pittsburgh.
20.03 - Kansas City, DEF - KC/6: We're really flying through these last rounds. Early on I wasn't so sure we'd be done by 1:30, but now 12:30 is within reach. With no kickers yet, I decide to grab another insurance defense (figuring any RBs/WRs/TEs/QBs that are going to score for me are already on my roster) without a bye issue. Just like with my QBs, I'll get to grab the best of three scores each week---which I like a lot.
21.10 - Robbie Gould, PK - CHI/8: Not my first choice of kickers, but at least he doesn't have a bye week problem.
22.03 - Rian Lindell, PK - BUF/6: Ditto.
The Team
QB Jay Culter, DEN/8QB Jason Campbell, WAS/10QB Tarvaris Jackson, MIN/8RB Adrian Peterson, MIN/8RB Edgerrin James, ARI/7RB Kevin Smith, DET/4RB Derrick Ward, NYG/4RB Fred Jackson, BUF/6WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh, CIN/8WR Roddy White, ATL/7WR Joey Galloway, TB/10WR Sidney Rice, MIN/8WR Reggie Williams, JAC/7WR Ernest Wilford, MIA/4WR Ike Hilliard, TB/10TE Tony Gonzalez, KC/6TE L.J. Smith, PHI/6PK Robbie Gould, CHI/8PK Rian Lindell, BUF/6DEF Pittsburgh, PIT/6DEF Houston, HOU/8DEF Kansas City, KC/6I like my QBs/DEFs/TEs a lot.I like my WRs OK.
I might have some week four trouble with my RBs.
My PKs are meh, with is OK for PKs.
The Results...
...remain to be seen, but I fully expect to be in contention for the final playoff spot heading into week five.
It was fun guys good luck to all!
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BusMan
Footballguy
I like VY in this format---I was targeting him when you picked him. I think you got great value in Garcia---I didn't have the stones to take him with all this Favre talk.Like I said above, I was hoping Westy would fall to me, but I should've known he wouldn't. Your RBs look pretty good.
I'm not so high on your receivers but they should get the job done.
Good pick with Alge---I had him as the #5 TE on my board.
You snagged Arizona right before I was gonna take 'em.
Good work---you have a slightly weak third week but should have no trouble contending.
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BusMan
Footballguy
Jene,Nice work---I've got you slotted #1 and advancing easily. You snagged Delhomme when I was targeting him---ouch. RBs are solid. WRs are ok---I don't like them a ton but they'll work. Three team Ds was such a good idea I decided to copy you. I hope I can hang, Doc.All right, so first, the KDS thing. Ordinarily those middle slots suck in terms of raw pick value, even with the ability to pick off the values and play the runs. I probably should’ve taken a later pick, but I had Gore a half tier ahead of Barber/Portis/Lynch as my #6 back, so I went with it. I was hating life in rounds 4-8 though, as I continually saw the bottom of my tiers snaked from under me. If I had to do it over again, I probably would have done something similar to bagger and taken a pick or two later – pick chart be damned. Thankfully my tiers didn’t dry up nearly as often later in the draft – just the opposite in fact – so I think I ended up with a solid roster.
Quarterback
Aaron Rodgers (8) 8.06
Jake Delhomme (9) 9.07
Josh McCown (4) 22.06
I was hoping to get a look at Romo in the late second after seeing how the other leagues went but he went at 2.01. I thought hard about Brees, but decided I couldn’t pass up Fitzgerald in the mid-second. In the end, Rodgers as the QB14 and Delhomme at QB18 should be a solid enough duo. Both of them have plenty of receiving options. Probably won’t use McCown, but rostered him in the last round anyway.
Running Back
Frank Gore (9) 1.06
Jamal Lewis (5) 4.06
Selvin Young (8) 6.06
Sammy Morris (4) 15.07
This didn’t go to plan at all. I held out some fleeting hope that I’d get a look at McGahee or MJD in the second. Happy to get Jamal Lewis in the 4th, but I really wanted Rudi Johnson as my #3. I took a risk he’d slide to the 6th – no dice. Selvin Young probably has similar upside I guess, but I’d rather not fuss over the Denver RB situation. I thought Sammy Morris was a steal in the 15th and was crossing my fingers that he’d last for two full rounds as I played the tier game mid-draft to get McMichael and the Bills defense. Probably should’ve fit another back in here in the middle rounds, especially since with Lewis’ bye, but the tiers just didn’t work out.
Wide Receiver
Larry Fitzgerald (7) 2.07
Greg Jennings (8) 5.07
Derrick Mason (10) 7.07
Vincent Jackson (9) 10.06
Ted Ginn (4) 11.07
Ronald Curry (5) 12.06
Demetrius Williams (10) 16.06
Arnaz Battle (9) 20.06
Pretty standard best ball strategy here. Middle tiers were plenty deep for me, so, although I wasn’t happy about missing on targets like Santonio Holmes, Jerrico Cotchery and Bobby Engram, I think this group should do fine. Seven receivers will play every week for me. I think every receiver from Jackson on was good value. Jackson could be a monster if Gates isn’t ready. Ginn, Curry and Williams all have big game potential and if Battle wins the slot job for Mike Martz he could contribute too. All behind three guys who should get plenty of targets every week. Given my lack of depth at RB, I’ll need this group to put up some numbers. Almost took Mike Vrabel in the 22nd round out of “team defense leagues are stupid” principle.
Tight End
Jason Witten (10) 3.07
Randy McMichael (5) 14.06
Witten is going to be on a lot of my rosters this year, I’d guess. He’s probably still just as productive as many in the mid-WR2 tier and will be a big relative advantage since there are plenty of WR2 values to be had later. I don’t trust Plaxico or the EEEEEEEEE for some reason, so once Bush, Romo and the rest of the low WR1 tier dried up, Witten was left. McMichael was a late value pick. He was the 19th TE off the board, despite what I think could be 40-500 potential.
Placekicker
Nate Kaeding (9) 18.06
Matt Bryant (10) 21.07
I had four kickers I wanted to roster, thinking that I’d sit with one and get three defenses. Kaeding was one of them, but by the 21st round, I didn’t see a RB or WR that would be as likely to score for me as a second kicker. Bryant is a Capybara special so he must be good, right?
Team Defenses
Buffalo (6) 13.07
Seattle (4) 17.07
Denver (8) 19.07
You might ask yourself, why does a DST hater have three defenses on his team? Strategery? I don’t know. I do know that, even though they probably won’t score much on paper, I want a good score every week – 4-7 points is going to make a difference in an all-play setup. I went with three to avoid bye week issues. I didn’t get one of my top four targets, but these three all have good matchups during the first five weeks and overlap well. I had Seattle and Denver in my top ten, so I was pretty pleased to have both fall to me pretty late. Hoping this pays off to the tune of 1-2 wins a week. If it doesn’t, it’s the final nail in the coffin of the stupid team defense thing.
This team *should* be solid enough to keep from getting handed a kiss of death 2-9 week. Without any major injuries, there shouldn't be a killer bye issue. Hopefully, it's good enough to finish 8-3 or better often enough to move on to round 2.
BusMan
Footballguy
Lash,You might have some trouble in week four, but I definitely think you're a contender. Nice Moss scoop.
BusMan
Footballguy
Thanks for filling in for bostonfred on such short notice, crippler. Very cool.You're right you have some RB issues to deal with. Your WRs are very good though---maybe they can pull up the slack. I'm not sold on your TEs either, but if Scheffler does fulfill his promise early this year you've struck some later round gold.Okay, Was thrown into the fire at the last second and while I think this is an intriguing team, that could put up some nice points, I am probably going to finish last with my RB'sQB Palmer, Carson CIN QB 5.05Rivers, Philip SDC QB 8.08I love this tandem. I usually dont take QB early but 2 drafts I have drafted Palmer as last of a big dropoff tier. Would normally go 3 but with considering Rivers a top 10 guy, I think I am pretty set here and only went 2RB Alexander, Shaun FA* RB 19.05Bell, Tatum DET RB 13.05Jackson, Brandon GBP RB 14.08Johnson, Chris TEN RB ® 10.08Portis, Clinton WAS RB 1.08What a mess this is. Portis makes a fine #1 guy and pretty happy. Being thrown in and no preparation, I was thinking survivor over best ball and probably take Larry Johnson instead. Every time I was looking at a RB coming back around, they went and better values elsewhere. DeAngelo and Ahman Green being the big 2. Also would have taken Bush in the 2nd but he went 1 pick earlier also. So I drafted guys who just might start the season for a team. Bell/Jackson have got chances and this will be huge. Chris Johnson in PPR could be nice and add some needed points each week and still cant write off Alexander as not getting a job soon. Risky but at that point, what else is there. Was going to take a TJ Duckett type late also but I love Micheal Clayton and see a resurgence for him. Really should have taken Betts over Thomas in the 15th. Another RB mistakeWR Avery, Donnie STL WR ® 17.05Boldin, Anquan ARI WR 3.05Clayton, Michael TBB WR 22.08Harrison, Marvin IND WR 7.05Owens, Terrell DAL WR 2.05Patten, David NOS WR 16.08Thomas, Devin WAS WR ® 15.05Ward, Hines PIT WR 6.08Williams, Roy DET WR 4.08Okay. This group is an A and I hope they can make up the difference each week for my #2 RB loss if nothing works out there but some PPR points. I rolled the dice on Harrison as my #5 guy because he could end up being just as good as TO if healhy. Cant say much about the top 5 as good value on each I believe. Thought about Maroney over Roy Williams in the 4th but swung for the fences and had other RB targets. I believe this league is won right here at this position and want to start a 2-4 each week. Patton was to get some points in week 4 in case the rookies and Clayton dont work out. TE Miller, Zach OAK TE 11.05Scheffler, Tony DEN TE 9.05Solid but unspectacular. TE's went early and often. Thought good value on Scheffler and I am really high on Zach Miller. Should not kill me but wont help me either. Almost took Dustin Keller over Thomas also in the 15th and looking back prefer that to Thomas for sure for my 2nd mistake I made by taking himPKCrosby, Mason GBP PK 18.08Hanson, Jason DET PK 21.05Not worriea about cold and think Crosby gets more chances this year with no Brett there. Hanson is just a proven vet in the end. 49ers, San Francisco SFO Def 20.08Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def 12.08Really not sure how this one is going to work out. With no preparation, did not look at matchups like I normally would. Went for big play D's in the end and no bye week issues. SF was an improving D and they added Justin Smith this off-season to make it even better. Dallas is loaded for bear this year in the end. Probably one of the most intriguing teams in all of the drafts. Probably the worst looking RB core but maybe the best WR core. See how it plays out in the end. Maybe they will let me go through as I think my longest pick on the ngiht took 12 seconds. I was thinking ahead quite a bit. Just nothing worked out
BusMan
Footballguy
Your WRs are strong no doubt. But a weak performance by your RB crew could leave you with loses piling up week-to-week. You WRs won't be able to fill your second RB slot.
BusMan
Footballguy
Good idea and it worked--LJ, Wayne, Colston is a hell of a way to start this thing.
I don't like your QBs much. Way too much reliance on McNabb and his gimpy shoulder. The other three aren't guaranteed to play. I hear Troy Smith may start the season for the black birds.
Again too much dependence on one RB. The others might need even see the field that much. Too much risk here for my tastes.
A strong group, but I think crippler has you beat in terms of depth.
I understand Shockey shooting up the draft boards, but its not like he's the #1 option on the team. I don't like Clark as your week four scorer.
Yeah but what if Melhaff doesn't earn the job? What if Rackers is shut out? Too much risk here, once again.
I disagree with this assessment. Its not a throw away position if they both post crappy scores. And I'd like to see some proof for why you'll likely outperform the other team's DEFs---they all have better ones than you.Sorry, bagger, but I have you posting cripplingly low scores in Weeks 1 and 2---you might quickly become an afterthought in this league. Just way too much risk IMO.DT
Falcons, Atlanta ATL Def - 7 21.03
Saints, New Orleans NOS Def - 9 20.10
Complete throw away position in this format. I picked two teams that didn't have a bye in round 1 in the 2nd to last two rounds. I will still likely outperform people here every week who drafted DTs 8 rounds earlier.
Cakeboy gives this draft a 9/10
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Pictus Cat
Footballguy
Thanks for the comments on my team. With you drafting before me, you took a lot of the players I wanted. Here are the ones off the top of my head.Housh (planned my kds on a CIN WR in the second, preferably Housh in PPR)
Cutler (was thinking Cutler then Heap or Young after turn,
Having missed out on my Cutler/Young combo, cost me two QB picks later with Garcia/Edwards)
Steelers went right after my Garcia/Edwards
Texans looking to shore up that weaker week 3 you mentioned
Gould Not a big deal, I hope
There were others that were close, but these guys were in my queue...forcing my 2 second picks to 2 minutes. If only you would have been on the other side of the draft...
lol based on what? Maybe you can post the scores for weeks 1 and 2 so i can see how i will do.You seem to conveniently forget that this league is...1. Best ball2. Start 3 WR + 1 Flex3. PPR4. Only 5 weeksYour outlook ignores WRs in a format that is built entirely around them. You will likely be starting your 5th...yes 5th...drafted WR for at least one week in this format. Drafting 1 WR in the first 4 rounds makes your team DOA. I will guarantee any team that drafts 1 WR in the first 4 rounds will not move on. Crippler and I are in the clear lead going into the season from that standpoint.I fully anticipate repeating my performance from last year when I led the Message Board to beat the Staff.You repetedly mention risk and rationalize scenarios of what could happen to multiple players. You can't draft scared, especially in a 5 week season.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I completely disagree with this statement. There is no one single position that wins a best ball league. I've seen several strong teams that did not draft a WR before round 4 and I have seen several teams load up with stud WRs and not do a thing. You have to be solid throughout your lineup, not just at one position.
Anthony Borbely
Footballguy
I like Bramel's teams a lot and also Pictus Cat.
BusMan
Footballguy
1. Best Ball means that if you score less points than 10 teams in Weeks 1 and 2, you're 2 and 20 heading into the third week of the season.2. No, my projections/draft are based on starting 3 WRs and having the best possible flex each week, whether that be a RB/WR/TE.3. Actually, I managed to update my projections to factor in PPR before the draft.4. I managed to correct for this as well (did you read my team write-up--above?).Obviously we don't know what's going to happen when the games start to count---its just my opinion that based on the way I see this league going down, you're not going to do very well. If I'm wrong, I'll be right here after Week 5 giving you all kinds of kudos.Its gonna be fun...
Captain Quinoa
Footballguy
Did Shockey have to take his bye week with him as part of the trade?
BusMan
Footballguy
Good point, Captain Q. This improves bagger's TE stable as he now can use Clark purely as depth. It doesn't affect my projections for him, as DD took this into account.
I think your overrating RB's in your analysis. 2-4 is the best lineup. So while I lose on RB2, somewhat(and dont count my guys out yet, I do think 1 of the 4 will step up),. I think my WR4 will kill any teams RB2 except Bush which was a great pick and should have gone much higher. out there to make out some ground. May not work out but I agree with bagger in that WR is the key to winning and you call most WR's out there okay and how I see it. But I guess we will see down the road. Add in what I think is very good QB and 2 positions that score the most are covered
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you're using the DD to project my points?BusMan said:
oh noes.
Crippler said:
2-4 is the best lineup in this format and it isn't even close. what i learned in this format over the years is that if you have a talented and deep WR corps and 1 top back, you can platoon 3-4 other backs for your RB2 slot and a random fill in for a bad bye week flex (which we don't have in this truncated season for round 1).i was #2 in best ball format last year in the Staff vs Message Board league (where we beat the staff) using this exact same strategy where people didn't like my RBs, QBs, etc etc.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Hey, does anyone know how the message board made out vs. the staff last year?
Pictus Cat
Footballguy
FixedCrippler said:
BusMan
Footballguy
Its a great theory if it works. But no matter what you think your WRs won't be able to score for you in your second RB slot. Platooning a bunch of guys who collectively probably won't see many touches each week won't work. For five straight weeks you're counting on...1) Larry Johnson to score for you each week, despite a weak OL, weak passing game, and rebuilding defense that can easily get the Chiefs in an offensive mode where they're not able to run the football.2) Low talent Justin Fargas to beat out uber rookie Darren McFadden for the majority of touches in Oakland.3) De'shaun Foster who is likely the #3 RB in San Fran.4) Mendenhall who is the FWP's backup.or5) DeAngelo Williams who couldn't beat out Foster the last three years in Carolina. What makes you think Stewart won't get the bulk of the carries?So you have a situation where its entirely possible for you to get 0, 1, or 2 points per week out of your second RB slot.Couple this with McNabb and a crew of quarterbacks who might not ever see the field for you in the first five weeks of the season.You're counting on Wayne/Colston/Bowe/Berrian to not only score lots of points for the WR group, but to cover for deficiencies in the RB and QB slots?Plus your "throw away" defenses.That's cool---I like my chances against a squad like that.Crippler said:2-4 is the best lineup in this format and it isn't even close. what i learned in this format over the years is that if you have a talented and deep WR corps and 1 top back, you can platoon 3-4 other backs for your RB2 slot and a random fill in for a bad bye week flex (which we don't have in this truncated season for round 1).i was #2 in best ball format last year in the Staff vs Message Board league (where we beat the staff) using this exact same strategy where people didn't like my RBs, QBs, etc etc.
BusMan
Footballguy
What do you mean? Was there a league just like this last year? Maybe there's a thread...
BusMan
Footballguy
Did you even read my write-up? Or is your gut giving you that information as well?you're using the DD to project my points?BusMan said:
oh noes.
radballs
Footballguy
Wow Bus, I think his RB stable is more than able. I'd say it's at least average. I guess you're just down on some of these guys.Its a great theory if it works. But no matter what you think your WRs won't be able to score for you in your second RB slot. Platooning a bunch of guys who collectively probably won't see many touches each week won't work. For five straight weeks you're counting on...1) Larry Johnson to score for you each week, despite a weak OL, weak passing game, and rebuilding defense that can easily get the Chiefs in an offensive mode where they're not able to run the football.2) Low talent Justin Fargas to beat out uber rookie Darren McFadden for the majority of touches in Oakland.3) De'shaun Foster who is likely the #3 RB in San Fran.4) Mendenhall who is the FWP's backup.or5) DeAngelo Williams who couldn't beat out Foster the last three years in Carolina. What makes you think Stewart won't get the bulk of the carries?So you have a situation where its entirely possible for you to get 0, 1, or 2 points per week out of your second RB slot.Couple this with McNabb and a crew of quarterbacks who might not ever see the field for you in the first five weeks of the season.You're counting on Wayne/Colston/Bowe/Berrian to not only score lots of points for the WR group, but to cover for deficiencies in the RB and QB slots?Plus your "throw away" defenses.That's cool---I like my chances against a squad like that.Crippler said:
BusMan
Footballguy
True, radballs, I'm down on everyone but LJ. Its just that most of the other teams have two starting RBs on their squad.Wow Bus, I think his RB stable is more than able. I'd say it's at least average. I guess you're just down on some of these guys.Its a great theory if it works. But no matter what you think your WRs won't be able to score for you in your second RB slot. Platooning a bunch of guys who collectively probably won't see many touches each week won't work. For five straight weeks you're counting on...1) Larry Johnson to score for you each week, despite a weak OL, weak passing game, and rebuilding defense that can easily get the Chiefs in an offensive mode where they're not able to run the football.2) Low talent Justin Fargas to beat out uber rookie Darren McFadden for the majority of touches in Oakland.3) De'shaun Foster who is likely the #3 RB in San Fran.4) Mendenhall who is the FWP's backup.or5) DeAngelo Williams who couldn't beat out Foster the last three years in Carolina. What makes you think Stewart won't get the bulk of the carries?So you have a situation where its entirely possible for you to get 0, 1, or 2 points per week out of your second RB slot.Couple this with McNabb and a crew of quarterbacks who might not ever see the field for you in the first five weeks of the season.You're counting on Wayne/Colston/Bowe/Berrian to not only score lots of points for the WR group, but to cover for deficiencies in the RB and QB slots?Plus your "throw away" defenses.That's cool---I like my chances against a squad like that.Crippler said:
BusMan
Footballguy
When you say "using this exact same strategy" do you mean when you went RB/WR/RB/WR/RB/TE and didn't take your 5th WR until the 12th round (Matt Jones)?Crippler said:
what i learned in this format over the years is that if you have a talented and deep WR corps and 1 top back, you can platoon 3-4 other backs for your RB2 slot and a random fill in for a bad bye week flex (which we don't have in this truncated season for round 1).
i was #2 in best ball format last year in the Staff vs Message Board league (where we beat the staff) using this exact same strategy where people didn't like my RBs, QBs, etc etc.
BusMan
Footballguy
Week 1:QB Donovan McNabb - 17.8
RB Larry Johnson - 11.7
RB DeAngelo Williams - 8.4
WR Reggie Wayne - 15.9
WR Dwayne Bowe - 14.9
WR Marques Colston - 11.9
FLEX Bernard Berrian - 9.3
TE Jeremy Shockey - 8.9
PK Neil Rackers - 10.1
DEF Atlanta - 10.3
Total: 119.2 <---better than Usual21 by 10 points but worse than everyone else by at least 8
Week 2:
QB Donovan McNabb - 15.9
RB Larry Johnson - 16.9
RB DeAngelo Williams - 10.4
WR Reggie Wayne - 19.4
WR Marques Colston - 14.8
WR Dwayne Bowe - 10.5
FLEX Bernard Berrian - 8.9
TE Jeremy Shockey - 10.8
PK Neil Rackers - 9.2
DEF New Orleans - 5.0
Total: 121.8 <---better than crippler (barely) but worse than everyone else
There's your 2 - 20 start.
Of course this is a ridiculous exercise (projecting weekly points) but I do have some precedent in this regard.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Not to mention, I'm not sure who these 4 stud WRs are which he's banking on.Wayne and Colston are money, no doubt.
But after that, it's a crap shoot. Bowe is good, but with the exception of the Falcons, he has 4 brutal matchups early on.
Pictus Cat
Footballguy
crippler - crippler Player YTD Pts Bye Drafted
Portis, Clinton WAS RB - 10 1.08 DAL CIN
Johnson, Chris TEN RB ® - 6 10.08 MIN BAL
Bell, Tatum DET RB - 4 CHI13.05
Jackson, Brandon GBP RB - 8 14.08
Alexander, Shaun FA* RB - - 19.05
Owens, Terrell DAL WR - 10 2.05
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR - 7 3.05
Williams, Roy DET WR - 4 4.08
Harrison, Marvin IND WR - 4 7.05
Ward, Hines PIT WR - 6 6.08
Thomas, Devin WAS WR ® - 10 15.05
Patten, David NOS WR - 9 16.08
Avery, Donnie STL WR ® - 5 17.05
Clayton, Michael TBB WR - 10 22.08
Miller, Zach OAK TE - 5 11.05
Scheffler, Tony DEN TE - 8 9.05
Crosby, Mason GBP PK - 8 18.08
Hanson, Jason DET PK - 4 21.05
49ers, San Francisco SFO Def - 9 20.08
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def - 10 12.08
I think your WR theory may meet hard times in week 4 and 5,
when 5 fantasy teams are gone,
and the reaper comes calling for 3 more.
Portis, Clinton WAS RB - 10 1.08 DAL CIN
Johnson, Chris TEN RB ® - 6 10.08 MIN BAL
Bell, Tatum DET RB - 4 CHI13.05
Jackson, Brandon GBP RB - 8 14.08
Alexander, Shaun FA* RB - - 19.05
Owens, Terrell DAL WR - 10 2.05
Boldin, Anquan ARI WR - 7 3.05
Williams, Roy DET WR - 4 4.08
Harrison, Marvin IND WR - 4 7.05
Ward, Hines PIT WR - 6 6.08
Thomas, Devin WAS WR ® - 10 15.05
Patten, David NOS WR - 9 16.08
Avery, Donnie STL WR ® - 5 17.05
Clayton, Michael TBB WR - 10 22.08
Miller, Zach OAK TE - 5 11.05
Scheffler, Tony DEN TE - 8 9.05
Crosby, Mason GBP PK - 8 18.08
Hanson, Jason DET PK - 4 21.05
49ers, San Francisco SFO Def - 9 20.08
Cowboys, Dallas DAL Def - 10 12.08
I think your WR theory may meet hard times in week 4 and 5,
when 5 fantasy teams are gone,
and the reaper comes calling for 3 more.
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BusMan
Footballguy
This is best ball right? Not survivor.
Jene Bramel
Footballguy
It is. However, it'll function a lot like a survivor league. One 2-9 week and you're probably eliminated anyway. You must go 7-4 over the next four weeks just to get back above .500 -- which won't be good enough to get you through in all likelihood. bagger and the message board made an awesome comeback in the WCOFF challenge last season, but anyone who gets off to the start he did last year is in trouble -- no matter how good your team looks on paper. Somebody is going to have a team that would've finished in the top four by Week 8, but won't have gotten started in time.
because you should always draft the same positions in the same rounds in every draft regardless of where your draft position is, right?When you say "using this exact same strategy" do you mean when you went RB/WR/RB/WR/RB/TE and didn't take your 5th WR until the 12th round (Matt Jones)?Crippler said:
what i learned in this format over the years is that if you have a talented and deep WR corps and 1 top back, you can platoon 3-4 other backs for your RB2 slot and a random fill in for a bad bye week flex (which we don't have in this truncated season for round 1).
i was #2 in best ball format last year in the Staff vs Message Board league (where we beat the staff) using this exact same strategy where people didn't like my RBs, QBs, etc etc.
