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Andre Ellington - RB - Clemson. (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Faust
MVP
Like I said up thread, if you just google images of both players you can actually see that they are nearly identical in size. This guy has tremendous value in start ups right now. DLF has his Dynasty ADP in the early 6th while similar players like Gio are going in the late 1st, early 2nd and Vereen going early 4th.Height, sure. Body size and muscularity....NO.
Banger
Footballguy
that's funny because I feel the exact opposite about him. He's incredibly frustrating but he seemed to do what he said he was going to do. I'd rather have a guy like him than a BB who you don't know what's going to happen game to game. Basically, last year he said Mendy was the starter and Ellington was going to get touches and as the year went on he ramped those touches but always said he wanted to limit them (and he did).
Shutout
Footballguy
I agree. Arians has a record of saying "we will do this with X player" and then doing it. It is not always what we want as fantasy owners, like last year with Mendy, but he is pretty transparent about things. He said Wayne would be used exactly the way he was and it showed big. Used Fitz more. Said he would do things with Floyd. I like the disclosure.Banger said:
Banger
Footballguy
agreed but if I had to choose between he being the guy they're building the offense around after putting on 10 pounds and possibly being slightly less effective vs. not given the chance to be the guy because the coach doesn't think that you can withstand the pounding (last year).....I'll take my chances with the weight gain and being the man.....
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Terpman22
Footballguy
Shutout
Footballguy
I'll go with Banger on this one because while it's true we hear stories of guys that say they felt like they played at the wrong weight and suffered, it is usually not the weight, but the bulk and loss of flexibility. Sometimes these guys get mass but not power where its needed. But then there are players that kind of get on track and then, looking back, people ask the question and you hear something like "the key was I strengthened my body and I can avoid injuries better". This is pretty much the same statement except that they did it correctly.
The Cardinals have a great strengthening and conditioning program. Being out in the desert, they understand lean muscle mass development, hydration, stretching, etc as well as anyone. I like his chances to do it the right way and, if nothing else, he has Fitz on the team who is well-known for knowing how to correctly take care of his body. When you look at the Cardinals, you hardly ever see those "this injury set up this injury down the line" type of injuries. They tear muscles, have ACLs, etc but you hardly see them reporting a lot of hamstring which led to a knee, or an ankle that developend into something else. They tend to do well.
Xue
Footballguy
They are close in size based on height and weight, but Bernard is clearly thicker because he has shorter limbs. He has 28" arms while Ellington has 31" arms. Ellington has the same arm length has Eddie Lacy.
Faust
MVP
10 catches a game? Not going to happen. 20 carries? Not going to happen. Projecting 320 carries OR 160 catches for Ellington is just slly off season fluff. However, the fact the HC and GM are excited about his abilities and how much they can/will use him next season is great news for dynasty outlook.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
All players with 10 or more targets in 2013 catches/targets/yards/ypc/TD-
Michael Floyd 65 112 1041 16.0 5
Larry Fitzgerald 82 136 954 11.6 10
Andre Roberts 43 76 471 11.0 2
Rob Housler 39 57 454 11.6 1
Andre Ellington 39 57 371 9.5 1
Jim Dray 26 33 215 8.3 2
Jaron Brown 11 18 140 12.7 1
Rashard Mendenhall 18 21 134 7.4
Alfonso Smith 10 13 68 6.8
So the Cardinals let Andre Roberts go and added a LT and John Carlson TE in free agency. Carlson will likely be used most as a blocker. So either he replaces Housler or Dray for targets. I do not see targets to TE changing much because of Carlson.
Ellington might get some of Andre Roberts slot looks however and if he does might get 80-100 targets in 2014 if healthy all season.
Michael Floyd 65 112 1041 16.0 5
Larry Fitzgerald 82 136 954 11.6 10
Andre Roberts 43 76 471 11.0 2
Rob Housler 39 57 454 11.6 1
Andre Ellington 39 57 371 9.5 1
Jim Dray 26 33 215 8.3 2
Jaron Brown 11 18 140 12.7 1
Rashard Mendenhall 18 21 134 7.4
Alfonso Smith 10 13 68 6.8
So the Cardinals let Andre Roberts go and added a LT and John Carlson TE in free agency. Carlson will likely be used most as a blocker. So either he replaces Housler or Dray for targets. I do not see targets to TE changing much because of Carlson.
Ellington might get some of Andre Roberts slot looks however and if he does might get 80-100 targets in 2014 if healthy all season.
cstu
Footballguy
Since 1987 here are the rookie RB's with 4.8+ YPC and 25+ catches (less than 200 carries):
NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT1 Andre Ellington rb 2013 24 1 15 118 652 5.53 3 39 371 9.51 1 126.32 DeMarco Murray rb 2011 23 1 13 163 895 5.49 2 26 183 7.04 0 119.83 Selvin Young rb 2007 24 1 15 140 729 5.21 1 35 231 6.60 0 102.04 MJD rb 2006 21 1 16 166 941 5.67 13 46 436 9.48 2 227.7Looks much different for rookie RB's over 200 carries:
NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT1 Andre Ellington rb 2013 24 1 15 118 652 5.53 3 39 371 9.51 1 126.32 DeMarco Murray rb 2011 23 1 13 163 895 5.49 2 26 183 7.04 0 119.83 Selvin Young rb 2007 24 1 15 140 729 5.21 1 35 231 6.60 0 102.04 MJD rb 2006 21 1 16 166 941 5.67 13 46 436 9.48 2 227.7Looks much different for rookie RB's over 200 carries:
Code:
NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT1 Chris Johnson rb 2008 23 1 15 251 1228 4.89 9 43 260 6.05 1 208.82 Clinton Portis rb 2002 21 1 16 273 1508 5.52 15 33 364 11.03 2 289.23 Corey Dillon rb 1997 23 1 16 233 1129 4.85 10 27 259 9.59 0 198.84 Jerome Bettis rb 1993 21 1 16 294 1429 4.86 7 26 244 9.38 0 209.35 Ricky Watters rb 1992 23 1 14 206 1013 4.92 9 43 405 9.42 2 207.8Faust
MVP
Shutout
Footballguy
Well there's a hype train piece to grease the tracks. I'm not sure where I stand on this one. I actually own him in a league and had forgotten about it until someone sent me a trade request. I really didn't get too excited about him last year but that was partly because my team was clearly not going anywhere and it seemed like every time I was forced to use Ellington, he came away with 4-5 points. So I guess there is more than meets the eye (that my eye remembers).
Anyway, it sounds like he is a good candidate to garner a great deal of hype/value in the next few months, especially if the Cards do not draft another RB.
ClevelandRocks
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
You got some good information there, lol.
This caught my eye: .
"[SIZE=medium]Arians also said Ellington added 10 pounds of muscle this off season. Adding 10 pounds of muscle is music to my ears as an Ellington owner. Reading between the lines, I foresee Ellington getting set to take on a heavier work-load for the 2014 season. Add a full off- season with the same personnel, coaches, and system and that just might equal a recipe for success.[/SIZE]"
I hadn't heard that before.
I had taken a look at Ellington but saw that thin frame, listed at only 199 lbs and that he only scored 1 rushing TD last year and split carries with Rashad Mendenhall and firgured Arians was going to take a RB fairly high to be the workhorse.
I think the Cards still take a RB fairly high and that they'd like a split but I had not heard Andre packed on 10 lbs of muscle.
Very interesting.
Good job on the write-up Eric.
Heck he even noted his sources, pretty impressive.
cstu
Footballguy
It's too bad he's already 25. There's not a great track record for 24 yo rookie RB's having long-term success.
ClevelandRocks
Footballguy
You got some good information there, lol.
This caught my eye: .
"[SIZE=medium]Arians also said Ellington added 10 pounds of muscle this off season. Adding 10 pounds of muscle is music to my ears as an Ellington owner. Reading between the lines, I foresee Ellington getting set to take on a heavier work-load for the 2014 season. Add a full off- season with the same personnel, coaches, and system and that just might equal a recipe for success.[/SIZE]"
I hadn't heard that before.
I had taken a look at Ellington but saw that thin frame, listed at only 199 lbs and that he only scored 1 rushing TD last year and split carries with Rashad Mendenhall and firgured Arians was going to take a RB fairly high to be the workhorse.
I think the Cards still take a RB fairly high and that they'd like a split but I had not heard Andre packed on 10 lbs of muscle.
Very interesting.
Good job on the write-up Eric.
Heck he even noted his sources, pretty impressive.
Thank you still a work in progress! Yes age is a factor but same age as Shady with less miles on him, previous injury concerns and the tough division are some other concerns. Really looking forward to this season though.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The age factor is more significant for a RB because most RB see a decline in their performance after age 27 (a RB peak performance age). Inside Slant: Running back cliff after age 27
So when comparing Ellington to Bernard for example, Bernard has 3 more years of career before reaching that 28 year old mark than Ellington does.
For the most part change happens at the RB position at a higher frequency than other skill positions. So I will usually only project a RB for 3 years. But the career length is somewhat relevant here, as Bernard (or other younger players) will not see that decline as soon as you would expect to see decline with Ellington due to age.
There is also the consideration that players who are still very young when they enter the league that they will improve as they are still growing and getting better due to NFL training. We are seeing that with Ellington gaining 10lbs entering his second season. But Ellington at 25 is more experienced and likely closer to his peak performance at 25 compared to a younger RB who has more potential to grow and become better.
This does not matter for redraft, but should be a consideration in dynasty.
So when comparing Ellington to Bernard for example, Bernard has 3 more years of career before reaching that 28 year old mark than Ellington does.
For the most part change happens at the RB position at a higher frequency than other skill positions. So I will usually only project a RB for 3 years. But the career length is somewhat relevant here, as Bernard (or other younger players) will not see that decline as soon as you would expect to see decline with Ellington due to age.
There is also the consideration that players who are still very young when they enter the league that they will improve as they are still growing and getting better due to NFL training. We are seeing that with Ellington gaining 10lbs entering his second season. But Ellington at 25 is more experienced and likely closer to his peak performance at 25 compared to a younger RB who has more potential to grow and become better.
This does not matter for redraft, but should be a consideration in dynasty.
My Hope Street Alias
Footballguy
Kick off your shoes, crack a Corona, and enjoy your summer.
Topes
Footballguy
Indeed, I will. I ran my jinx hex twice. It worked!
The NFL draft is a wonderful thing. As we're seeing from folks in the other threads, it can also be a very painful time for folks in keeper leagues when their rising star is threatened by a draft pick.
Ellington Ho! 2014 and beyond!
As you were...
The NFL draft is a wonderful thing. As we're seeing from folks in the other threads, it can also be a very painful time for folks in keeper leagues when their rising star is threatened by a draft pick.
Ellington Ho! 2014 and beyond!
As you were...
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Competition for passing targets from the draft were-
Troy Niklas (Arians prefers a TE to block)
John Brown - I do not know much about him except he is blazing fast.
Walt Powell - Will be competing with Brown for a roster spot.
They also signed Ted Ginn in free agency.
I may have been a bit optimistic on the targets in post above. 70-90 targets for Ellington in 2014.
Troy Niklas (Arians prefers a TE to block)
John Brown - I do not know much about him except he is blazing fast.
Walt Powell - Will be competing with Brown for a roster spot.
They also signed Ted Ginn in free agency.
I may have been a bit optimistic on the targets in post above. 70-90 targets for Ellington in 2014.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
People are pretty optimistic about a 6th rounder now huh... Interesting to think about immediately following a draft.
cstu
Footballguy
Ellington will already be 26 in February.
Then think about how the fantasy world feels about Spiller and Mathews, who were 26 last year.
Ellington has 2-3 years before he's considered 'old' by the fantasy community.
T with T
Footballguy
he has 6 more years until he is 30 plus he has low miles and is a great wr so he could have value into his early 30s I don't think age is a thing to worry about with Ellington.
So because a bunch of people who have absolutely zero influence on his touches, ability or production think he is old that means what? His "perceived" value may be lower than his "actual" value? Beautiful! I'll buy wherever I can!
Not really. The odds of any particular 6th round pick become a starter are not related to the odds of a former 6th rounder who's already performed well for a year and whose team didn't draft a RB the next year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Here is an interesting article looking at the frequency that RB were asked to pass block- https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2013/12/12/signature-stats-pass-blocking-efficiency-rbs-and-tes/
Ellinton was on the field for 192 passing attempts but was only asked to block on 19 of those, or 9.9% this is the lowest amount of all RB besides Sproles.
One of the reasons I did not like Ellington as a RB prospect is because he was reportedly poor in pass protection. But as I see from his receptions last season and usage here, this is one RB who may actually be benefiting from not being asked to pass protect much.
This is part of the reason for my optimism about Ellingtons targets in the passing game increasing.
Ellinton was on the field for 192 passing attempts but was only asked to block on 19 of those, or 9.9% this is the lowest amount of all RB besides Sproles.
One of the reasons I did not like Ellington as a RB prospect is because he was reportedly poor in pass protection. But as I see from his receptions last season and usage here, this is one RB who may actually be benefiting from not being asked to pass protect much.
This is part of the reason for my optimism about Ellingtons targets in the passing game increasing.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Ryan Williams released by Arizona Cardinals
Ryan Williams' star-crossed NFL career has reached another road block.
The Arizona Cardinals released the running back on Monday, just three years after the organization took Williams with the No. 38 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft. We loved Williams' running style coming out of Virginia Tech, and he looked very promising in his first preseason. But a ruptured patella tendon suffered in his third preseason game changed the course of his career.
Williams has been looking to recapture his pre-injury form since then, and he suffered season-ending shoulder surgery early in his second season. The Cardinals didn't select a running back high in the draft this year, but they have Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer on the depth chart.
- By Gregg Rosenthal
- Around The League Editor
- Published: May 12, 2014
Ryan Williams' star-crossed NFL career has reached another road block.
The Arizona Cardinals released the running back on Monday, just three years after the organization took Williams with the No. 38 overall pick of the 2011 NFL Draft. We loved Williams' running style coming out of Virginia Tech, and he looked very promising in his first preseason. But a ruptured patella tendon suffered in his third preseason game changed the course of his career.
Williams has been looking to recapture his pre-injury form since then, and he suffered season-ending shoulder surgery early in his second season. The Cardinals didn't select a running back high in the draft this year, but they have Andre Ellington, Stepfan Taylor and Jonathan Dwyer on the depth chart.
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Faust
MVP
Rotoworld:
Andre Ellington - RB - Cardinals
Coach Bruce Arians reiterated Andre Ellington is the Cardinals' "No. 1 back" and is expected to get "25-30 touches per game."
As former Rotoworld All-Star turned NFL.com stud Chris Wesseling put it: "LOL." That would extrapolate to 400-480 touches over the course of a 16-game season. Jamaal Charles, who was the Chiefs' workhorse on offense, touched the ball 330 times last season. That was still plenty. Arians has already expressed concerns with Ellington's ability to handle a big workload. If Ellington flirts with even 250 touches after handling just 157 combined carries and receptions as a rookie, we'd consider it a win. He's on the RB2 radar, especially in PPR.
Source: Mike Jurecki on Twitter
May 27 - 2:55 PM
Andre Ellington - RB - Cardinals
Coach Bruce Arians reiterated Andre Ellington is the Cardinals' "No. 1 back" and is expected to get "25-30 touches per game."
As former Rotoworld All-Star turned NFL.com stud Chris Wesseling put it: "LOL." That would extrapolate to 400-480 touches over the course of a 16-game season. Jamaal Charles, who was the Chiefs' workhorse on offense, touched the ball 330 times last season. That was still plenty. Arians has already expressed concerns with Ellington's ability to handle a big workload. If Ellington flirts with even 250 touches after handling just 157 combined carries and receptions as a rookie, we'd consider it a win. He's on the RB2 radar, especially in PPR.
Source: Mike Jurecki on Twitter
May 27 - 2:55 PM
Khy
Footballguy
This seems reminiscent of the "We're going to feed CJ Spiller until he vomits" type of coach talk we heard last year in Buffalo. I LOVE Ellington, I snagged him in more or less every Dynasty league I'm in last season in the later rounds of the draft and laughed while everyone was taking Taylor ahead of him.That said, I agree... I think his ceiling for carries is somewhere in the 275-300 range.
It's funny how Arians tune has changed since last season though. Back in October he viewed him as a "30-32 snap" kind of guy because of his size. Now he wants him to get, not 30 snaps but 30 touches. Lol.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
Stepfan Taylor is looking like a smart sleeper option here. I really don't see Ellington bypassing his touches last year and, while I hate to predict injuries, could easily see him getting hurt if they do try to force feed him.
