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***Official Jays Thread*** Lots of optimism, again. (1 Viewer)

Patrick the Pirate said:
Cliff Clavin said:
Does anyone else get the feeling that Lawrie just has no clue what he is doing at the plate?
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I do!

And what about Rasmus??? He has two hits (both doubles) and 12 strikeouts in 27 AB.

With Reyes out their bottom 4 hitters are going to be Lawrie (BA - .103), Rasmus (.074), Goins (.063) and Diaz (.200). MLB should force the other teams to get 4 outs per inning vs. the Jays.
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That is just typical Rasmus though. He's going to strike out a bunch and hit the ball hard when he makes contact. He'll get going and be the same .250 hitter with a lot of double and HRs.

Lawrie just seems like a mess up there. Every game he takes an off-balance / protective hack at the first pitch he sees or when he is ahead in the count. He never seems to square anything up. He swings at damn near everything near the plate regardless of count or pitch.

 
Cliff Clavin said:
Patrick the Pirate said:
Cliff Clavin said:
Does anyone else get the feeling that Lawrie just has no clue what he is doing at the plate?
Click to expand...
I do!

And what about Rasmus??? He has two hits (both doubles) and 12 strikeouts in 27 AB.

With Reyes out their bottom 4 hitters are going to be Lawrie (BA - .103), Rasmus (.074), Goins (.063) and Diaz (.200). MLB should force the other teams to get 4 outs per inning vs. the Jays.
Click to expand...
That is just typical Rasmus though. He's going to strike out a bunch and hit the ball hard when he makes contact. He'll get going and be the same .250 hitter with a lot of double and HRs.

Lawrie just seems like a mess up there. Every game he takes an off-balance / protective hack at the first pitch he sees or when he is ahead in the count. He never seems to square anything up. He swings at damn near everything near the plate regardless of count or pitch.
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Looking at fangraphs, it appears my observation about him not squaring the ball up this year seems to be accurate.

LD%: 0.0% (only 3 guys in the league including Lawrie haven't hit a LD)

IFFB: 20%

O-Swing: 42%!!!!! (about 10th worst in the league)

/smallsamplesize

 
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Santos has looked completely unhittable his last couple times out. Cecil was awesome tonight too.

McGowan has a nice line and did a good job but had at least 3 380 ft fly outs.

 
Early in minor league season, obviously but Marcus Stroman (AAA), Aaron Sanchez (AA) and Daniel Norris (A) are all having really strong starts to their seasons, and all could move up a level pretty soon. Still not a decent position prospect to be found though.

 
Going into tonight's game, batters were hitting .440/.533/.680 the 3rd time through order vs. Dickey.

Tonight:

Nick Markakis walked
Nelson Cruz homered to deep left center, Steve Lombardozzi and Nick Markakis scored
Chris Davis flied out to center
Adam Jones grounded out to pitcher
Steve Clevenger walked
Delmon Young hit by pitch, Steve Clevenger to second
Ryan Flaherty walked, Steve Clevenger to third, Delmon Young to second
Jonathan Schoop struck out swinging
----
Steve Lombardozzi singled to shallow left
Nick Markakis ground rule double to deep center, Steve Lombardozzi to third

 
My perception of this team changes by the inning. Last night when they were up 6-1 with their 5th starter against the Orioles ace I thought maybe this is a contender. And then in the 5th it all came crashing down. And then in the 9th I thought there's a chance...

And now today I look at things and I think they are garbage. Solely on the fact that their rotation is so weak. Buehrle has been excellent but it's not going to last. Dickey can twirl a gem or get bombed. Hutchison has some promise but doesn't last long enough into games. Morrow appears to have the stuff but not consistently. McGowan is better off in the pen. You can't win in the long run with 5 or less IP from your starters.

 
They'll be as good or as bad as their starting rotation.

Dickey will be better and Buehrle will be worse, they will meet in the middle to combine for 400-450 innings around a 4.00 ERA. After that, the season likely depends on whether Morrow and Hutchison can consistently pitch into the 6th/7th, if they do, they'll contend, if they don't they won't. Hutchison and Morrow are both coming off injuries last season, it's too early to say one way or the other.

 
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They're tired.

Plus it wasn't as bad as it seems. Davis and Weiters two RBI hits were pure luck.

The Orioles have a loaded lineup with mediocre to weak pitching. A lot like the Jays only better.

 
Patrick the Pirate said:
They're tired.

Plus it wasn't as bad as it seems. Davis and Weiters two RBI hits were pure luck.

The Orioles have a loaded lineup with mediocre to weak pitching. A lot like the Jays only better.
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Yeah there were 2 hard hit balls that entire inning. I don't think the O's starting pitching is any better than the Jays. Rays and Red Sox starters have struggled (in the Rays case died) early too. Only team with pretty strong starters so far has been the Yankees but they may be the weakest offense.I think every team in the AL East finishes with 82 wins or more but no one wins 90.

 
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Northern Voice said:
Dickey will be better and Buehrle will be worse,
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Well, this happened in a hurry.

Other stuff from the weekend:

- Encarnacion was ripping the ball almost every time up, a few line drive outs and a bunch of hits, I was never worried but he's definitely coming around.

- Lawire's power is back, already more than halfway to last season's total of 11 HR's. Just hit his 1st double of the year yesterday, so it has been feast or famine.

- Bautista has reached base every game this season. His .464 OBP speaks to that and he just looks better at the plate than he did at any time last year.

- Jays bumped Stroman's AAA start so he is aligned with McGowan in the rotation, another but start from DM and we could see him up (I hope if someone takes over for him it's Stroman and not Happ).

- Neither Jonathan Diaz (182/289/212) or Ryan Goins (150/203/217) belongs in the majors, let alone starting. I don't care how good they are defensively.

- No SB's for Reyes is mildly concerning but he has been moving well on the bases, going 1st to 3rd and legging out a couple infield singles.

- Not sure what you can do with Morrow, just have to hope for the best with him and keep running him out there I guess.

- So nice to have Thole/Navarro instead of Arencibia.

- Melky is really good when he doesn't have a tumor on his ###.

Ultimately, nothing has changed, this offense is legit, the bullpen will be fine, it all depends on the SP's.

 
I liked the infield (from the hitting side of things) when they went with Francisco at 3rd, Reyes at SS, Lawrie at 2B and Encarnacion at 1B. Would be nice if Lind was at DH with that lineup against RHP's.

Northern Voice - I think you forgot to mention M. Sierra when saying who shouldn't be in the majors.

They sent Goins down and are bringing up Chris Getz. Probably a slight upgrade???

 
Patrick the Pirate said:
Northern Voice - I think you forgot to mention M. Sierra when saying who shouldn't be in the majors.

They sent Goins down and are bringing up Chris Getz. Probably a slight upgrade???
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Sierra is just as stupid as they come. Stupid baserunning mistakes, dumb plays in the field, he can hit a little, but they definitely miss Rajai Davis, and a lefty-crushing RH bat with some speed would be a nice addition (maybe Steve Pearce who the O's just released).

Getz should be a bit better than Goins and also adds some of that speed that the team has lost in Rajai/Bonifacio, but he'll still probably be worse than league average at 2B.

 
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Northern Voice said:
- Jays bumped Stroman's AAA start so he is aligned with McGowan in the rotation, another but start from DM and we could see him up (I hope if someone takes over for him it's Stroman and not Happ).
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Stoman was on an 80 pitch pitch count tonight (maybe keeping him fresh if Toronto needs him), His line: 6 IP, 0 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. 80 pitches, 56 strikes.

Of course McGowan has only given up 2 hits through 6 innings against KC himself.

TOO MUCH STARTING PITCHING ;)

 
I'm not sure what the exact criteria of MLB.com's late/close stat, but in those circumstances, the Jays have an ERA of 8.10.

As Shi Davidi put it today:

The list of the lost isn’t pretty:


- On April 17, they blew a 5-3 lead in the eighth inning of a 9-5 loss to the Twins. Steve Delabar, Sergio Santos and J.A. Happ combined to walk eight batters in the eighth.
- On April 20, they blew a 4-2 lead in the sixth inning of a 6-4 loss to the Indians in Cleveland. Aaron Loup walked three batters with two out before a David Murphy double cashed them in.
- On April 23, they led visiting Baltimore 6-1 after two innings and Dustin McGowan left with a 6-3 lead and the bases loaded in the fifth before Todd Redmond surrendered a grand slam in what finished as a 10-3 loss.
- On April 24, they surrendered a 3-2 lead in the seventh inning of an 11-4 loss to the Orioles. Neil Wagner, Brett Cecil and Esmil Rogers got burned in that one.
- And on April 29, they led 5-2 in the seventh inning of the 10-7 loss to the Royals, with Steve Delabar, Brett Cecil, Sergio Santos and Esmil Rogers all getting roughed up.

Even if the Blue Jays close out just three of those games, they’re sitting pretty at 15-11 right now instead of 12-14 and how you feel about that depends on whether you’re the half-full, or half-empty type.
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You could probably also find 4 or 5 games where they were trailing by a couple of runs late and came back to win them. I didn't actually check.

They are what 1-6 in their last 7??? And now 12-15 on the year. That's all that matters.

Is it just me or are they not getting many early runs? I think that pitchers pitch better with more confidence if you give them a few runs to work with.

 
Sierra DFA'd, Diaz demoted to AAA, Anthony Gose and Steve Tolleson called up.

Gose doesn't figure to see a ton of time, but will be nice to have as a pinch runner/defensive replacement, which may be all he is as an MLB player.

 
Northern Voice said:
Sierra DFA'd, Diaz demoted to AAA, Anthony Gose and Steve Tolleson called up.

Gose doesn't figure to see a ton of time, but will be nice to have as a pinch runner/defensive replacement, which may be all he is as an MLB player.
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If that's all Gose ever turns out to be, he'll still have more value than Brett Wallace and Michael Taylor

 
Balco said:
Cliff Clavin said:
So when does the fire sale start?
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Who do you think they will trade? Bautista and Encarnacion? those are the only 2 offensive players that would fetch something in return.
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Sadly, I don't think they'll trade anyone but Rasmus and Buerhle could fetch something and Bautista and Edwin should bring in a nice haul.

ETA: And I'll preface that with saying that I have little to no idea how to value MLB trades.

Eta2: Melky would be a good bat for a contender.

 
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Cliff Clavin said:
Balco said:
Cliff Clavin said:
So when does the fire sale start?
Click to expand...
Who do you think they will trade? Bautista and Encarnacion? those are the only 2 offensive players that would fetch something in return.
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Sadly, I don't think they'll trade anyone but Rasmus and Buerhle could fetch something and Bautista and Edwin should bring in a nice haul.

ETA: And I'll preface that with saying that I have little to no idea how to value MLB trades.
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AA has got to be dead man walking at this point

 
Smack Tripper said:
Is Santos done done as closer?
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For now. Janssen may be back soon, short term will be Cecil/Delabar based on matchups. Cecil was a closer in college and has been real good since they made him a permanent reliever, I think if Janssen has a setback, he's the one to own but that's speculation based on talent and recent usage.

 
3 wins in a row! and from McGowan/Happ/Hutchison!

Random notes people may or may not have any interest in:

- Jose Bautista has gotten on base every game this year (33 straight). His hit through through the wide open side of the infield vs. the shift in the 10th inning last night was a thing of a beauty.

- Colby Rasmus currently has a higher ISO (.282) than OBP (.280), only guys ever to do it over a full season are Barry Bonds (.536 ISO, .515 OBP in his 73 HR season :lmao: ) and Matt Williams in 1994.

- Sounds like Brett Lawrie will be back at 3B when he returns from this hammy issue, not sure if playing at 2B maybe caused it?

- Could also see Stroman back to the minors when Janssen comes off the DL (if Happ and McGowan stick in the rotation), Kratz likely back to the minors once Navarro is able to catch again.

- Jose Reyes may never steal another base.

- Melky is awesome.

 
Going to game next Wednesday with Indians. 1st time in stadium. Looking forward to it.

 
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