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*****Official 2014 Kentucky Derby Thread***** (1 Viewer)

chet

Footballguy
Just over 2 months away.

For the third year in a row, my friend has a potential Derby winner. 2012 he had Algorithms and last year, he had Shanghai Bobby. Both were Derby favorites at this time but unfortunately neither ran due to injury.

This year, his horse is Intense Holiday. He's presently listed as 20-1 for the Derby here.

Here's his profile from Bloodhorse.

Hopefully, my friend has better luck this year.

 
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I look forward to the Derby every year, that would be an awesome experience to go to the Derby as an owner. I hope your friends horse makes it in.

 
BRONG said:
Loved his Allowance win, but anytime a horse suffers a setback this time of year they are an automatic throwout for me. He had to scratch out of the San Felipe with a bruised foot. On the West Coast it's really down to California Chrome and Candy Boy. California Chrome is really versatile, having won from off the pace and wire to wire. Most of Baffert's horses don't look as tough. Chitu beat Midnight Hawk today at Sunland but neither look like real Derby horses to me. Really a shame that Shared Belief got injured - he was the real deal.

We'll know more in a few weeks with the Wood, SA Derby, FL Derby. Looking forward to see who blossoms. And who can really rate and get 1 1/4 miles.

 
Loved his Allowance win, but anytime a horse suffers a setback this time of year they are an automatic throwout for me. He had to scratch out of the San Felipe with a bruised foot. On the West Coast it's really down to California Chrome and Candy Boy. California Chrome is really versatile, having won from off the pace and wire to wire. Most of Baffert's horses don't look as tough. Chitu beat Midnight Hawk today at Sunland but neither look like real Derby horses to me. Really a shame that Shared Belief got injured - he was the real deal.

We'll know more in a few weeks with the Wood, SA Derby, FL Derby. Looking forward to see who blossoms. And who can really rate and get 1 1/4 miles.
:hophead:

Tell us something we don't know. Or better yet, pick a horse!

 
LA Derby at 710pm tonight.

Intense Holiday (my friend's horse) is the favorite at 2-1. His knock is distance. Or should I say the question from unrelated parties is whether he can handle the distance.

 
LA Derby at 710pm tonight.

Intense Holiday (my friend's horse) is the favorite at 2-1. His knock is distance. Or should I say the question from unrelated parties is whether he can handle the distance.
i see he took second.. has a good number of points to qualify for the derby

 
BRONG said:
Could be looking at a Big Brown type freak come Derby DayEdit: aside from the fact he isn't lightly raced and has a few loses coming in, but his last few he has absolutely blew his competition away

 
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California Chrome absolutely toyed with them in the SA Derby and didn't get the greatest of trips. That being said, I loved Wicked Strong's win in the Wood. He closed and still looked green coming down the lane. And with Hard Spun as his sire and Charismatic on the Dam side there is no question he will get 1 1/4. And both loved CD. He's my Derby horse. California Chrome's odds will be too short to bet now anyway IMO.

 
Can't freaking wait, I love the Derby!!

Without digging too deep yet, Samraat really interests me early on.

 
will be interesting to see the lineup of horses

i normally host a great party for this.... but it's weird a lot of people have conflicting things that day so I think my gathering is going to be small.

it's a great sports day... derby followed by some evening baseball followed by the Mayweather fight!

 
I will arrive on Thursday, attend the Oaks on Friday, the Derby on Saturday and get the hell out of dodge on Sunday.

I hope my friend's horse cashes although I think he'll be a bit of a longshot.

 
I will arrive on Thursday, attend the Oaks on Friday, the Derby on Saturday and get the hell out of dodge on Sunday.

I hope my friend's horse cashes although I think he'll be a bit of a longshot.
Here's a nice writeup on him...intriguing horse

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/04/21/derby-dozen-april-21-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

There is one major question regarding this colt, but its an important one: can anything be done to stop him from crossfiring? Its simple really. If he crossfires again in the Derby hes not winning. If he doesnt, he has a big chance. You cannot become discombobulated and have your back legs out of sync with your front legs in a 20-horse field and expect to win or even be around at the finish. The one good thing is that if there is a way to prevent him from doing it, Pletcher will find it between now and the Derby. Mike Smith tried in the Louisiana Derby and the colt shot to the rail like a car blowing its left front tire. He remained stuck on his left lead and had no action until he finally got himself back in gear, switched over to his right lead, and finished up nicely to be second and galloped out strongly. So all things considered, he still finished in front of a number of good horses, and now gets Johnny Velazquez, who you can bet will be aware of the situation. This colt has the talent, the closing punch, and the turn of foot to be a major factor on May 3. Here is why he is more than capable of winning the Derby on his best day and best behavior: His 111 Brisnet late pace figure in the Remsen is the highest of any horse in the field. Two races later, in the Risen Star, he ran a 108 late pace figure, third highest of any horse in the field. Thoro-Graph also shows a similar pattern, as he is the only horse in the Derby to have run a negative number on dirt (in the Risen Star) and still regressed to only a 2 in the Louisiana Derby even with his miscues. Based on both these patterns, hes ready for another huge closing effort, as long as he keeps his wheels aligned properly.
 
I will arrive on Thursday, attend the Oaks on Friday, the Derby on Saturday and get the hell out of dodge on Sunday.

I hope my friend's horse cashes although I think he'll be a bit of a longshot.
Here's a nice writeup on him...intriguing horse

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/04/21/derby-dozen-april-21-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

There is one major question regarding this colt, but its an important one: can anything be done to stop him from crossfiring? Its simple really. If he crossfires again in the Derby hes not winning. If he doesnt, he has a big chance. You cannot become discombobulated and have your back legs out of sync with your front legs in a 20-horse field and expect to win or even be around at the finish. The one good thing is that if there is a way to prevent him from doing it, Pletcher will find it between now and the Derby. Mike Smith tried in the Louisiana Derby and the colt shot to the rail like a car blowing its left front tire. He remained stuck on his left lead and had no action until he finally got himself back in gear, switched over to his right lead, and finished up nicely to be second and galloped out strongly. So all things considered, he still finished in front of a number of good horses, and now gets Johnny Velazquez, who you can bet will be aware of the situation. This colt has the talent, the closing punch, and the turn of foot to be a major factor on May 3. Here is why he is more than capable of winning the Derby on his best day and best behavior: His 111 Brisnet late pace figure in the Remsen is the highest of any horse in the field. Two races later, in the Risen Star, he ran a 108 late pace figure, third highest of any horse in the field. Thoro-Graph also shows a similar pattern, as he is the only horse in the Derby to have run a negative number on dirt (in the Risen Star) and still regressed to only a 2 in the Louisiana Derby even with his miscues. Based on both these patterns, hes ready for another huge closing effort, as long as he keeps his wheels aligned properly.
Thanks. My friend just emailed me the same article. Does Haskin know what he's talking about?

Another friend is a nationally ranked handicapper and his concern is the horses' distance ability.

Also, has anyone ever used Maverick Sports? I just bought their Derby package--I can't do worse than last year.

 
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I will arrive on Thursday, attend the Oaks on Friday, the Derby on Saturday and get the hell out of dodge on Sunday.

I hope my friend's horse cashes although I think he'll be a bit of a longshot.
Here's a nice writeup on him...intriguing horsehttp://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/kentucky-derby-dozen/archive/2014/04/21/derby-dozen-april-21-2014-presented-by-shadwell-farm.aspx

There is one major question regarding this colt, but its an important one: can anything be done to stop him from crossfiring? Its simple really. If he crossfires again in the Derby hes not winning. If he doesnt, he has a big chance. You cannot become discombobulated and have your back legs out of sync with your front legs in a 20-horse field and expect to win or even be around at the finish. The one good thing is that if there is a way to prevent him from doing it, Pletcher will find it between now and the Derby. Mike Smith tried in the Louisiana Derby and the colt shot to the rail like a car blowing its left front tire. He remained stuck on his left lead and had no action until he finally got himself back in gear, switched over to his right lead, and finished up nicely to be second and galloped out strongly. So all things considered, he still finished in front of a number of good horses, and now gets Johnny Velazquez, who you can bet will be aware of the situation. This colt has the talent, the closing punch, and the turn of foot to be a major factor on May 3. Here is why he is more than capable of winning the Derby on his best day and best behavior: His 111 Brisnet late pace figure in the Remsen is the highest of any horse in the field. Two races later, in the Risen Star, he ran a 108 late pace figure, third highest of any horse in the field. Thoro-Graph also shows a similar pattern, as he is the only horse in the Derby to have run a negative number on dirt (in the Risen Star) and still regressed to only a 2 in the Louisiana Derby even with his miscues. Based on both these patterns, hes ready for another huge closing effort, as long as he keeps his wheels aligned properly.
Thanks. My friend just emailed me the same article. Does Haskin know what he's talking about?

Another friend is a nationally ranked handicapper and his concern is the horses' distance ability.

Also, has anyone ever used Maverick Sports? I just bought their Derby package--I can't do worse than last year.
Haskin is pretty solid...he's good at giving a lot of positive and negative info for you to decide what to do with

I'm not a pedigree expert but on first glance it could be an issue. There's another guy (Ian Tapp or Trapp) that usually does a nice breakdown...hopefully out soon

 
@ 20-1 it seems like he is worth taking a shot at.
I agree. I don't know where he will fall on race day--obviously post position plays a big role--but I think 20-1 is in the ballpark.

Incidentally, my friend said that the race that he got "crisscrossed" in the LA derby because he got boxed in after starting in position 1.

 
will be interesting to see the lineup of horses

i normally host a great party for this.... but it's weird a lot of people have conflicting things that day so I think my gathering is going to be small.

it's a great sports day... derby followed by some evening baseball followed by the Mayweather fight!
:thumbup: Playoff hockey too.

 
When is the official lineup for the derby? I know they have qualifications and the top 20 theoretically qualify, but I read a few horses in that top 20 won't make the trip to the derby.

 
Not finalized yet. Some horses have enough points but won't be running. Points leaders below. Some better contenders have fallen off the trail. Just not that many real contenders in this year's race IMO. California Chrome is the standout, but his price will be 3-1 at best and he won't work over the track. World of talent though, and could be one of those Derby's where it's over at the top of the stretch. If Wicked Strong progresses like I think he will he's still my horse. Terrific breeding, zero question of the distance, and he looks like he's still green and figuring things out. He could improve big time since the Wood. The fact he's never run a good race outside of NY is the only question mark, but if he works well he's my horse.

Danza to me is the question mark. Can't argue with that drawing away move at Oaklawn. Hoppertunity has the right style to get 2nd or 3rd. Planning to play Wicked Strong straight and then exotics for sure to CC, Danza and Hoppertunity. Hoping to find a real price horse I give a shot to finish in the Super that I think can go 1 1/4 So many of these can't. I think this is going to be really spread out. Would not surprise me to see the top 2 or 3 have 8 lengths on the rest. Unless the track is muddy of course. In other words - all options open!

Agree that it's a great night. Only problem is the Mayweather fight will suck, and I will be suckered into paying big PPV money for it. Full table of 9 guys for poker after the Derby, will have Cinco de Mayo carne asada, carnitas, tequila, etc, playoff games, Mayweather fight, and poker until the last man standing - probably 5am. Love it.

1 California Chrome Art Sherman 150 $782,250 2 Vicar's in Trouble Mike Maker 120 $760,000 3 Dance With Fate Peter Eurton 108 $600,000 4 Wicked Strong Jimmy Jerkens 102 $630,000 5 Samraat Rick Violette Jr. 100 $640,000 6 Danza Todd Pletcher 100 $620,000 7 Hoppertunity Bob Baffert 95 $576,000 8 Intense Holiday Todd Pletcher 93 $527,500 9 Wildcat Red Jose Garrofalo 90 $610,000 10 We Miss Artie Todd Pletcher 60 $544,000 11 Ride on Curlin Billy Gowan 55 $354,387 12 Chitu Bob Baffert 54 $440,000 13 Tapiture Steve Asmussen 52 $470,378 14 Ring Weekend H. Graham Motion 50 $260,000 15 General a Rod Mike Maker 40 $240,000 16 Medal Count Dale Romans 40 $226,500 17 Candy Boy John Sadler 30 $380,000 18 Uncle Sigh Gary Contessa 24 $180,000 19 Vinceremos Todd Pletcher 20 $191,666 20 Harry's Holiday Mike Maker 20 $152,622 21 Commanding Curve Dallas Stewart 20 $140,000 22 Pablo Del Monte Wesley Ward 20 $102,000 23 Bayern Bob Baffert 20 $100,000 24 Social Inclusion Manny Azpurua 20 $90,000 25 Big Bazinga Katerina Vassilieva 14 $92,149 26 Coastline Mark Casse 13 $131,346 27 Strong Mandate D. Wayne Lukas 11 $479

 
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Still working on my writeup but interesting note that Danzas time in the Ark was just a hair below Will Take Charge in the Oaklawn Handicapp right before...WTC is one of the top older horses running

 
Smails, that sounds like a great time. I am trying to work something similar out, but can't decide if I want to pony up for the Mayweather fight or not.

 
Still working on my writeup but interesting note that Danzas time in the Ark was just a hair below Will Take Charge in the Oaklawn Handicapp right before...WTC is one of the top older horses running
It was visually impressive too, even with the rail opening up. I never discount horses that closed at 1 1/8. I can't toss him.

 
xpressbet published their early guide. Pretty much consensus that California Chrome is the best horse in the race, but that means he's going to go off with a really low price. So the main call is whether or not you want to ride with Chrome on top of your tickets.

Wicked Strong is in the top 4 mix in all six of the write ups.

Hoppertunity makes the board in half the write ups. I plan to toss him for not racing as a 2 year old, so I kind of hope he gets a decent post to steal some bets.

The one that was fascinating to me is Jon White's pick of Dance with Fate. I'm going to have to look into that horse more because he would pay nicely in exotics.

If you aren't familiar with xpressbet, you get a fat sign up bonus by depositing $100 for the Derby...looks like it is a $125 match this year. I like the site because wagering is easy and completely legal (you just can't bet races in your home state). I'd be happy to refer anyone who hasn't used it before.

Can't wait for the post draw!

 
Just over 2 months away.

For the third year in a row, my friend has a potential Derby winner. 2012 he had Algorithms and last year, he had Shanghai Bobby. Both were Derby favorites at this time but unfortunately neither ran due to injury.

This year, his horse is Intense Holiday. He's presently listed as 20-1 for the Derby here.

Here's his profile from Bloodhorse.

Hopefully, my friend has better luck this year.
From Harlan's Holiday, one of the huge Derby favorites in 2003. RIP Harlan.

xpressbet published their early guide. Pretty much consensus that California Chrome is the best horse in the race, but that means he's going to go off with a really low price. So the main call is whether or not you want to ride with Chrome on top of your tickets.

Wicked Strong is in the top 4 mix in all six of the write ups.

Hoppertunity makes the board in half the write ups. I plan to toss him for not racing as a 2 year old, so I kind of hope he gets a decent post to steal some bets.

The one that was fascinating to me is Jon White's pick of Dance with Fate. I'm going to have to look into that horse more because he would pay nicely in exotics.

If you aren't familiar with xpressbet, you get a fat sign up bonus by depositing $100 for the Derby...looks like it is a $125 match this year. I like the site because wagering is easy and completely legal (you just can't bet races in your home state). I'd be happy to refer anyone who hasn't used it before.

Can't wait for the post draw!
Send me a PM. The OTB that was a mile away from me relocated. :(

 
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I saw California Chrome run at Santa Anita....he should be on the top of all your tickets. He blew away the field and still had a lot left in the tank. Even though the odds are going to suck, I plan on including him in every bet.....

 
I saw California Chrome run at Santa Anita....he should be on the top of all your tickets. He blew away the field and still had a lot left in the tank. Even though the odds are going to suck, I plan on including him in every bet.....
This year's Big Brown?

 
I saw California Chrome run at Santa Anita....he should be on the top of all your tickets. He blew away the field and still had a lot left in the tank. Even though the odds are going to suck, I plan on including him in every bet.....
This year's Big Brown?
He looks damn good, but at 3-1 I'll be rooting for him to miss the board (certainly not leaving him out of any exotics though)

Some knocks on him is that he will not be working out over the CD surface and that he has had issues breaking from the gate

An outside post would certainly be advantageous for him

 
My friend has 3 horses running at Churchill Downs on Derby weekend. How do those times look?

Churchill Downs

Candy Kitty (Lemon Drop Kid - Worthy Cat) breezed 1/2 mile in 0:48 2/5 on April 19 and is pointing for the Edgewood Stakes at Churchill on May 2.

Intense Holiday (Harlan's Holiday - Intensify) breezed 1/2 mile in 0: 48 4/5 on April 20 and is pointing for the Kentucky Derby (G-I) on May 3.

Picozza (More Than Ready - Casuarina) breezed 1/2 mile in 0:49 2/5 on April 19 and is pointing for the American Turf Stakes (G-II) at Churchill on May 3.
 

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