Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
I didn't notice his PPG numbers with Foles. I'll have to give him some more thought.
Eh, I think DLF's mocks are way off on that one. They're much too high on Randle, and much too low on Cooper. FBG consensus has them at WR35 and WR47, which I think is a much more reasonable spread.
I assumed he meant more VBD going forward. With that in mind, I feel quite confident that three of those five guys will provide more value than Witten going forward. Say, put everyone's odds at 60%.
Yeah, I'm not saying Philly gave him a megacontract. Just that they clearly liked him and hope to keep him around.
The downside of shopping in the rubbish bin all the time is that sometimes you end up with rubbish.
I would say MUCH lower than that, myself.
Even if we put them in a time machine and left Witten at 31, Witten is the heavy favorite.
I was never a Fleener, Rudolph, or Lewis fan.
I am not entirely sure why but it seems like many here do not value Terrance Williams as highly as he deserves to be.
As a rookie Williams had 12 catches of 20 or more yards. Those deep targets will likely increase for him in 2014.
This is what the market does--leaving itself vulnerable. Every bust had a solid backing; that's why they're classified as busts. The bust rate for TEs drafted in the 1st round is higher than 50%. We know this. Yet, when it comes down to it, we don't apply it.
I don't really view it that way. The bust rate is real and it is high. But return is also potentially high. I think a straight VBD analysis of an upper 1st pick at TE would prefer the youth at this point.
The TE position has changed so much in recent years that I'm not sure historical averages carry much weight. If we were comparing a 31-year-old Jason Witten to a bunch of 23-24 year olds who were drafted to be the next Jason Witten, that'd be one thing. We're not. We're comparing a 31-year-old Jason Witten to a bunch of kids who are basically just WRs with TE eligibility.
I don't think that would be the case, even without some kind of handicap to account for the ADP gap.
You're coming from a non-PPR stance and I'm not. There's a major difference in his value. At one point he finished TE2 or better 3 years in a row, followed up by 3 consistent, consistently above baseline seasons. In one of them, he broke the record for receptions by a TE in a single season.
60 ADP for Witten last year in full PPR. Even with no dropoff I think you need 4 years. I don't think you'll get 4 years (and I don't think he'll score 8 tds every year). I was very careful to say upper 1st. The grey area is how you equate semi-proven non upper 1sts to historical upper 1sts.Concept Coop said:
It seems there is a FBG staff echo chamber different from the ROTW, even FBG forums. I see Bloom has RRandle at 47 and is hyping Jerrigan, so perhaps that is part of the source. The cost of a 2nd is minute given his real world value.
Adam- doesn't make much sense to say we (DLF) are too high on Randle/low on Cooper based on the mocks/ADP. As you know, that data comes from 6 different drafts done each month filled with more than 60 different drafters coming from DLF, FBG, twitter etc. In most months, I'm the only one in multiple mocks, so it's not like one person is inflating any player's value. Maybe the sample size is not large enough for your taste.
Agreed. And FBGs staff rankings are all PPR. It's just a different mindset, since I usually play in non-PPR leagues, and for a few players it makes a huge difference. Witten's one of the biggest. In non-PPR, he's scored 23 points more than Greg Olsen over the last two years. In PPR, that gap is 64 points.
I can't really speak for the rest of the FBGs rankers, but most of us communicate very little with each other, and there's a pretty broad range of strategies represented (spanning from Pasquino to Parsons, pretty much diametric opposites). I'm not sure how much of an echo chamber is at play. I know that I honestly had no idea where FBGs had either player ranked until I checked, because I typically don't check the rest of the staff rankings except to check and make sure I didn't forget anyone obvious when submitting my own. I know there are going to be subtle biases causing our rankings to converge in some instances, but I don't know if Cooper/Randle are the result of an echo chamber, or if it's just different people arriving at similar conclusions.
No problems at all with the sample size. Obviously more than 6 is always better, and just as obviously there are limited resources to bring to bear on the situation, and dynasty is very much still a niche corner of the fantasy community. I think even with just 6 they're a very valuable tool, especially if you use the month-to-month rankings to smooth out a bit of the bumps along the way (like Cooper dropping from 55 in January to 75 in February and back up to 55 again in March). I think you do a great job with the mocks and think they're an invaluable resource, but I also think they tend to skew by default to DLF consensus rankings. Maybe I'm off on that one, but that's the impression that I've had. Perhaps I'm just underrating how representative DLF consensus is of the broader dynasty consensus.
Hmm...maybe. I just ask each participant to draft as if they were drafting their own team. As far as what resources they use (DLF rankings, FBG rankings, past ADP) I have no idea.
Sanders is in the dictionary under JAG. I think a key difference there is that Sanders was a 4th year player last season whereas Randle will be a 3rd year player this season. Randle was also an early entry to the draft as a 20 year old junior whereas Sanders was a 23 year old rookie after exhausting all FIVE years of his eligibility at SMU (because he not only wasn't talented enough to play as a true freshman at an inferior program, but also wasn't talented enough to leave for the draft after his junior year). Randle is actually a year younger right now than Sanders was when he played his rookie season. So you're comparing guys at totally different stages of their development.
My comp to Emmanuel Sanders was strictly related to him being 'fluffed' because of a perceived increase in role of offense by the departure of a FA (Wallace & Nicks respectively).
I don't think you can decide anything from that for exactly the reasons EBF stated. 2012 Chicago stats Bennett had 29 catches on 49 chances and Jeffery had 24 on 48. There are problems with Randle (raw, chemistry, causing INTs, etc.) but it is not the bare stats you quoted.
I can and have decided that the group think on Randle has his value way overblown as demonstrated by his ADP in DFL mocks. Its not as if he has been hidden on the bench and to say he is raw after two full NFL seasons is indictment enough to me.
Honestly, it's no big, and I don't mean to seem unappreciative or anything- I think the ADP data is an invaluable resource that's been lacking in the field for years. ADP data for dynasty leagues is just never the All/Everything it is for redraft leagues, simply because there are such a huge range of strategies and philosophies and opinions that there are no great one-size-fits-all solutions. Much like PFF's player grades, DLF's ADP data gives us a nice solid objective datapoint to use as a starting point for conversations, but it has to be taken with a grain of salt.
I have acknowledged the reason why people are overvaluing him, it is the basis for my argument. I don't think I need to mention it when I say that he is being overvalued because of a perceived increase in role/production based on FA leaving. I think you are doing yourself a disservice to just assume that he is going to plug-in to Nicks' production.
The rookie picks have been grossly undervalued in startups based on what I've seen.
Definitely agree with you there. I think ADP is best used as what most would assume...a tool/resource when participating in a startup draft. While I think it can be helpful to use in trade analysis, rookie draft prediction or established team analysis, there are flaws with each of those. I've seen and heard of many trying to make trades strictly based on this ADP data and that just won't work, in most cases.
I know, or think at least, you're just trying to make a point, more about ADP than Randle. But I agree. Aligning vet value with rookie value based on startup drafts just can't be done, especially once you get past the top 2 or 3 rookies. Obviously Randle is not worth the 1.03 and rookie drafts, startup drafts and existing teams are not all handled the same.
I think the rotoworld rankings side too much with youth, Sigs side a little to much with aging vets imo. Somewhere in between would be where im at. Example, there's no way im trading Patterson for an early 30s Vincent Jackson or Hopkins for Roddy White. And on the other side there's no way im trading Cruz for Randle.
I'm not really a Hopkins guy. They've got him ranked at WR11 over at DLF, which seems crazy high to me for a guy who probably doesn't have the potential to ever become a perennial top 10 dynasty WR. I had him at WR23 on my latest list (incidentally one spot behind Wright). I think that's more reasonable. The big issue for me is that Hopkins has minimal vertical explosiveness. Depending on which source you trust, his 40 time was slowish. His broad jump of 9'7" is well below the cutoff for what most current unanimous elite NFL WRs did. Add that to my subjective opinion that he's not much of a big play threat and he's not somebody that I'm interested in rostering at his current price.
I don't buy those times. He isn't that fast on the field. Other sources list different times for him:
You'll be hard-pressed to find an elite WR1 in the NFL with a worse broad jump than his 9'7". That mark in conjunction with his slow-ish 40 times paints the picture of a guy who lacks explosiveness, which is consistent with what he looks like on the field. He's overrated because he's young, he was a high pick, and his rookie production was okay. He's not a top shelf talent though. I can name quite a few in the league that he'll probably never be as good as:
I don't think so. But I find myself on EBF's side of the argument. His price is far too close to his ceiling for my tastes.
