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Simple Question (1 Viewer)

Will San Diego make the playoffs?

  • Yes

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • No

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Total voters
    0
Despyzer

Despyzer

Lousy Attention Whore
Here's what you've got...

PROS:

1. Returning almost every starter for a team that has won 21 games over the last two years.

2. Much easier schedule (without all of the East Coast road trips that wore them out last year).

3. This is the team that beat broke Indy's unbeaten streak (on the road), lost to the champion Steelers by two points in the last six seconds, and beat the defending champion Patriots by 24 (on the road).

4. Two of their six Pro-Bowlers from last year (Gates and Merriman) are rather inexperienced and should continue to progress.

5. The new QB has more upside potential than the old one.

6. Make-or-break year for Marty and (possibly) A.J.

7. One of the best (if not the best) in the league at rushing and defending the run.

CONS:

1. Denver is one of the best teams in the league and also resides in the division.

2. A LOT of other good AFC teams: NE, IND, MIA, PIT, CIN, KC, JAX (and maybe BAL)

3. First-time starter at QB

4. Questions on OL, particularly LT

5. Suspect secondary

6. Deep but unspectacular WR unit

7. Coach and GM squabbling with each other

8. Key starters Donnie Edwards, Jamal Williams, and Lorenzo Neal are getting pretty old.

Feel free to add anything that I may have overlooked to either list.

 
I think last year demonstrated that the AFC West is going to be hard-pressed to send two representatives to the playoffs, and I think Denver has to be the favorite for the automatic bid.

I like San Diego's chances this year, since they get to feast on the weak NFC West, and because I think the AFC North has become the new cannibalistic division (where all the teams beat each other up so much there's only one representative). Still, I think that the chances are good that the wildcards come from the AFC South and East this year, just because those divisions are so soft. As a result, I voted no, but it's close.

 
I can't believe I am going to defend San Diego but here goes.

@Oakland...Win

Tennessee...Win

Bye

@Baltimore...Loss

Pittsburgh...Win, payback for last season and it's at home

@SF...Win

@KC...Loss

St.Louis...Win

Cleveland...Win

@Cinci...Loss

@Denver...Loss

Oakland...Win

@Buffalo...Win, but it'll be a nailbiter

Denver...Win

KC...Win

@Seattle...Loss

Arizona...Loss

I have them going 10-6, Arizona is very debateable but you can give them that win and give them a loss in another game...10-6 could be enough to get in. Worst they do is 8-8, I think Rivers will lead them fine and LT/Turner are going to chew up defenses.

 
They'll go to the playoffs, I like them slightly better than Denver (that's right, I said it) to win the division.

People keep talking about Rivers. All he needs to do is take care of the ball. They won't need him to win games, just not to lose them. He'll be less important to their success this year than Brees was the last two.

The real story here is the defense. I think they'll have the best defense in the division, possibly by a big margin. People are sleeping on them, and they're going to be in for a surprise as the season plays out.

 
Gr00vus said:
They'll go to the playoffs, I like them slightly better than Denver (that's right, I said it) to win the division.People keep talking about Rivers. All he needs to do is take care of the ball. They won't need him to win games, just not to lose them. He'll be less important to their success this year than Brees was the last two.The real story here is the defense. I think they'll have the best defense in the division, possibly by a big margin. People are sleeping on them, and they're going to be in for a surprise as the season plays out.
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I don't know man, those CBs are BRUTAL. I question whether either of them is even among the top 64 CBs in the entire NFL. They'd be overmatched as NICKLE CBs, let alone starters lining up against the likes of Randy Moss, Javon Walker, Rod Smith, and Tony Gonzalez. Their front 7 is fabulous, but Denver's back 7 is just as fabulous, and Denver's front 4 is better than SD's back 4. I'd take Denver's D over SD's.
 
SSOG said:
Gr00vus said:
They'll go to the playoffs, I like them slightly better than Denver (that's right, I said it) to win the division.People keep talking about Rivers. All he needs to do is take care of the ball. They won't need him to win games, just not to lose them. He'll be less important to their success this year than Brees was the last two.The real story here is the defense. I think they'll have the best defense in the division, possibly by a big margin. People are sleeping on them, and they're going to be in for a surprise as the season plays out.
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I don't know man, those CBs are BRUTAL. I question whether either of them is even among the top 64 CBs in the entire NFL. They'd be overmatched as NICKLE CBs, let alone starters lining up against the likes of Randy Moss, Javon Walker, Rod Smith, and Tony Gonzalez. Their front 7 is fabulous, but Denver's back 7 is just as fabulous, and Denver's front 4 is better than SD's back 4. I'd take Denver's D over SD's.
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This is what I'm talking about with the sleeping on them.Florence is good. Jammer, well I'm not a big fan, but he did have a better second half last year, hopefully he can sustain that. But the real answer to your question is Antonio Cromartie. I can't explain it (though if you check his measurables you start to get the picture), you just have to see it. And you will see it. Add to that the fact that the Chargers' front 7 isn't going to give people much time to throw and nowhere to run, the secondary isn't as big a concern. I'll take a good front 7 over a good back 7 any time, which is why I like the Chargers' defense better than Denver's.It'll be tight, maybe Rivers will wilt under the pressure, but if he doesn't I like the Chargers' chances quite a bit.
 
Gr00vus said:
SSOG said:
Gr00vus said:
They'll go to the playoffs, I like them slightly better than Denver (that's right, I said it) to win the division.

People keep talking about Rivers. All he needs to do is take care of the ball. They won't need him to win games, just not to lose them. He'll be less important to their success this year than Brees was the last two.

The real story here is the defense. I think they'll have the best defense in the division, possibly by a big margin. People are sleeping on them, and they're going to be in for a surprise as the season plays out.
Click to expand...
I don't know man, those CBs are BRUTAL. I question whether either of them is even among the top 64 CBs in the entire NFL. They'd be overmatched as NICKLE CBs, let alone starters lining up against the likes of Randy Moss, Javon Walker, Rod Smith, and Tony Gonzalez. Their front 7 is fabulous, but Denver's back 7 is just as fabulous, and Denver's front 4 is better than SD's back 4. I'd take Denver's D over SD's.
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This is what I'm talking about with the sleeping on them.Florence is good. Jammer, well I'm not a big fan, but he did have a better second half last year, hopefully he can sustain that. But the real answer to your question is Antonio Cromartie. I can't explain it (though if you check his measurables you start to get the picture), you just have to see it. And you will see it. Add to that the fact that the Chargers' front 7 isn't going to give people much time to throw and nowhere to run, the secondary isn't as big a concern. I'll take a good front 7 over a good back 7 any time, which is why I like the Chargers' defense better than Denver's.

It'll be tight, maybe Rivers will wilt under the pressure, but if he doesn't I like the Chargers' chances quite a bit.
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http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/preview06/ne...age=Chargers/06
If the Chargers want to entertain a run deep into the playoffs, Drayton Florence and Quentin Jammer will have to step up. Jammer was the second-most targeted cornerback in the NFL last year. A lot of that probably was because of Jammer's complete lack of success against short passes, as nearly 80 percent of those types of passes were completed against him.

Florence wasn't thrown at as often as Jammer was, but his metrics were worse across the board. Florence had a dismal 34.2 percent success rate and allowed more than 8 yards per attempt. He also allowed more than 10 yards per attempt on medium and deep passes, which shows that he tends to be targeted and beaten deep.

The rest of the defense is so good that the Chargers don't need shutdown corners to win, but they will need a better performance than Jammer and Florence gave them in 2005.
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Just FWIW.
 
Only if both wildcards go to the AFC West, which isn't likely.

I voted no, with Pittsburgh and KC getting WC, Denver the division.

 
SSOG said:
Gr00vus said:
SSOG said:
Gr00vus said:
They'll go to the playoffs, I like them slightly better than Denver (that's right, I said it) to win the division.

People keep talking about Rivers. All he needs to do is take care of the ball. They won't need him to win games, just not to lose them. He'll be less important to their success this year than Brees was the last two.

The real story here is the defense. I think they'll have the best defense in the division, possibly by a big margin. People are sleeping on them, and they're going to be in for a surprise as the season plays out.
Click to expand...
I don't know man, those CBs are BRUTAL. I question whether either of them is even among the top 64 CBs in the entire NFL. They'd be overmatched as NICKLE CBs, let alone starters lining up against the likes of Randy Moss, Javon Walker, Rod Smith, and Tony Gonzalez. Their front 7 is fabulous, but Denver's back 7 is just as fabulous, and Denver's front 4 is better than SD's back 4. I'd take Denver's D over SD's.
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This is what I'm talking about with the sleeping on them.Florence is good. Jammer, well I'm not a big fan, but he did have a better second half last year, hopefully he can sustain that. But the real answer to your question is Antonio Cromartie. I can't explain it (though if you check his measurables you start to get the picture), you just have to see it. And you will see it. Add to that the fact that the Chargers' front 7 isn't going to give people much time to throw and nowhere to run, the secondary isn't as big a concern. I'll take a good front 7 over a good back 7 any time, which is why I like the Chargers' defense better than Denver's.

It'll be tight, maybe Rivers will wilt under the pressure, but if he doesn't I like the Chargers' chances quite a bit.
Click to expand...
http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/preview06/ne...age=Chargers/06
If the Chargers want to entertain a run deep into the playoffs, Drayton Florence and Quentin Jammer will have to step up. Jammer was the second-most targeted cornerback in the NFL last year. A lot of that probably was because of Jammer's complete lack of success against short passes, as nearly 80 percent of those types of passes were completed against him.

Florence wasn't thrown at as often as Jammer was, but his metrics were worse across the board. Florence had a dismal 34.2 percent success rate and allowed more than 8 yards per attempt. He also allowed more than 10 yards per attempt on medium and deep passes, which shows that he tends to be targeted and beaten deep.

The rest of the defense is so good that the Chargers don't need shutdown corners to win, but they will need a better performance than Jammer and Florence gave them in 2005.
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Just FWIW.
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I think KC Joyner is off on this one. His methodology is off. He doesn't distinguish between zone and man coverage (a lot of those short passes are completed underneath Jammer's zone), and he doesn't take safety help (or lack of it) into account.In any event, Jammer is a solid CB. He doesn't play the ball all that well, and as a result has few interceptions, but he rarely gets burned. (I know Joyner and FootballOutsiders both list him as having given up a lot of TDs last year, but I'd like to see a list of the ones they're counting against him. On another board, a bunch of knowledgeable Charger fans were trying to count them and couldn't come up with anywhere near FO's 7 or KC's 9.)

Florence and Cromartie both have a lot of physical talent and have played well in the preseason.

The problem with the Chargers' secondary last year had more to do with the safeties than with the corners, IMO. Kiel played hurt, and Jue played like a journyman. Kiel is healthy now and has had a very strong preseason. And McCree has been as good as advertised. Florence also looks much improved over last year. (Good thing for him, or he wouldn't have been able to hold off Cromartie.)

The Chargers' secondary is the weak part of the defense, but to say that Jammer isn't one of the top 64 corners in the NFL is completely ridiculous.

 
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Last year they had 10.7 pythagorean wins, 10.9 DVOA-estimated wins, and were the third best team in the NFL according to both this basic power rating system and this one.

They should be better this year, but even if they stay the same they should make the playoffs with the easier schedule. I do see one wild card coming from the AFC West.

 
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Gr00vus said:
People keep talking about Rivers. All he needs to do is take care of the ball. They won't need him to win games, just not to lose them.
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Groovus, You are one of my favorite posters, but this line is ridiculous. Unless you think they can win games by never passing, Rivers will be needed produce. "All he needs to do is take care of the ball" is easier said than done. See the INT Urlacher took back for six points against him a few weeks ago as an example. If it were as easy to do as it were to say, then every QB would be turnover free.

People think I bash Rivers, but I don't. I simply recognize the challenge of reading a defense accurately, making reads, being on the same page as your receivers making their reads, remaining calm while 300 lb behomoths are trying to maim you, and acurately delivering a pass where only your player can catch it....all in about 2.5 to 3 seconds.

Playing QB at the NFL level is extremely difficult. There are only 32 people qualified to do it on a weekly basis. There is a rare combination of athletic talent, intelligence, dedication, and leadership that comprise the requirements for the job, which explains why so few people on the planet can do it.

I like Rivers, I think he has the physical, mental, and intangible skills needed to succeed. However, he will go through a learning curve. Everyone does. Time will tell how quickly he develops. But expecting the task to be as simple as "not losing games" is nonsense. He will need to make throws to keep drives alive. He will need to win games in the last two minutes. He will need to do more than hand off to LT and focus on Gates.

Games in the NFL tend to be pretty close. Three or four big plays each week usually dictate the outcome. He'll be relied upon to make more big plays for his team than he does against them.

His success or failure will determine how well the team does.

 
the blind faith in Rivers this year by charger homers is staggering to me.

I hope he is as great as everyone else thinks he is going to be.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
I can't believe I am going to defend San Diego but here goes.@Oakland...WinTennessee...WinBye@Baltimore...LossPittsburgh...Win, payback for last season and it's at home@SF...Win@KC...LossSt.Louis...WinCleveland...Win@Cinci...Loss@Denver...LossOakland...Win@Buffalo...Win, but it'll be a nailbiterDenver...WinKC...Win@Seattle...LossArizona...LossI have them going 10-6, Arizona is very debateable but you can give them that win and give them a loss in another game...10-6 could be enough to get in. Worst they do is 8-8, I think Rivers will lead them fine and LT/Turner are going to chew up defenses.
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I think its very arguable that they take both the ARI and BAL games. I think that they will get swept by either DEN or KC but not both, will split with one of them. OAK they should sweep.
 
H.K. said:
Unless you think they can win games by never passing, Rivers will be needed produce. "All he needs to do is take care of the ball" is easier said than done. See the INT Urlacher took back for six points against him a few weeks ago as an example. If it were as easy to do as it were to say, then every QB would be turnover free. People think I bash Rivers, but I don't. I simply recognize the challenge of reading a defense accurately, making reads, being on the same page as your receivers making their reads, remaining calm while 300 lb behomoths are trying to maim you, and acurately delivering a pass where only your player can catch it....all in about 2.5 to 3 seconds.Playing QB at the NFL level is extremely difficult. There are only 32 people qualified to do it on a weekly basis. There is a rare combination of athletic talent, intelligence, dedication, and leadership that comprise the requirements for the job, which explains why so few people on the planet can do it.I like Rivers, I think he has the physical, mental, and intangible skills needed to succeed. However, he will go through a learning curve. Everyone does. Time will tell how quickly he develops. But expecting the task to be as simple as "not losing games" is nonsense. He will need to make throws to keep drives alive. He will need to win games in the last two minutes. He will need to do more than hand off to LT and focus on Gates.Games in the NFL tend to be pretty close. Three or four big plays each week usually dictate the outcome. He'll be relied upon to make more big plays for his team than he does against them.His success or failure will determine how well the team does.
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H.K., this is the most rational post you have given us on Rivers in the last few months. I appreciate it, but I wish you could have been this level-headed throughout the entire discussion.
 
@Oakland...Win

Tennessee...Win

Bye

@Baltimore...Loss

Pittsburgh...Loss

@SF...Win

@KC...50/50

St.Louis...50/50

Cleveland...75/25

@Cinci...Loss

@Denver...Loss

Oakland...Win

@Buffalo...Win

Denver...Loss

KC...50/50

@Seattle...Loss

Arizona...50/50

They'll be 9-7 or 8-8. I doubt they make the playoffs in the AFC with that record.

 
I also wanted to mention that last year they had several close loses by about a field goal. They also played 4 games against opponents that were coming off bye weeks. The win percentage for teams coming off bye weeks is something like 75%.

They lost to DAL in week 1 without gates by 4 pts.

Lost to DEN in week 2 by a field goal with just seconds to go.

In week 5 they lost to PIT by a field goal with 6 seconds left (PIT was coming off their bye)

Beat OAK in week 6 (oak was coming off a bye)

Lost to PHI in week 7 after a phantom holding call and a field goal attempt was blocked and returned for a TD (PHI was coming off a bye)

Weak 9 beat the Jets in what I felt was a close game. Jets were coming off a bye.

Heartbreaking loss to MIA in week 14 by 2 pts. Close game and MIA brought alot of pressue against brees.

They beat IND in week 15 but were already out of the playoffs when they lost to KC and DEN.

In short, they lost several VERY close games against good teams. You take away PIT and PHI bye weeks and I strongly feel san diego wins those games.

All that being said, yes I realize rivers is basically a rookie but this is also the class that eli manning and big ben came out of. Rivers football intelligence is supposed to be excellent. Yes, I realize rivers will be called upon to win some games, but the point that was made earlier about rivers not having to win them was more in the respect that the chargers can (and will) win games with rivers throwing for 20 or less passes. This is not the case with teams like IND, CAR, STL and PHI (probly DET as well) where their playoff hopes hinge on their QBs. If San diego can win the turnover battle, they should be able to win games with the run and their defense.

 
Despyzer said:
H.K. said:
Unless you think they can win games by never passing, Rivers will be needed produce. "All he needs to do is take care of the ball" is easier said than done. See the INT Urlacher took back for six points against him a few weeks ago as an example. If it were as easy to do as it were to say, then every QB would be turnover free. People think I bash Rivers, but I don't. I simply recognize the challenge of reading a defense accurately, making reads, being on the same page as your receivers making their reads, remaining calm while 300 lb behomoths are trying to maim you, and acurately delivering a pass where only your player can catch it....all in about 2.5 to 3 seconds.Playing QB at the NFL level is extremely difficult. There are only 32 people qualified to do it on a weekly basis. There is a rare combination of athletic talent, intelligence, dedication, and leadership that comprise the requirements for the job, which explains why so few people on the planet can do it.I like Rivers, I think he has the physical, mental, and intangible skills needed to succeed. However, he will go through a learning curve. Everyone does. Time will tell how quickly he develops. But expecting the task to be as simple as "not losing games" is nonsense. He will need to make throws to keep drives alive. He will need to win games in the last two minutes. He will need to do more than hand off to LT and focus on Gates.Games in the NFL tend to be pretty close. Three or four big plays each week usually dictate the outcome. He'll be relied upon to make more big plays for his team than he does against them.His success or failure will determine how well the team does.
Click to expand...
H.K., this is the most rational post you have given us on Rivers in the last few months. I appreciate it, but I wish you could have been this level-headed throughout the entire discussion.
Click to expand...
Um, thanks? I thought I had been. People get so emotional about this stuff. I just assume people have the rationale to realize what is so obvious about what makes it so difficult to play QB, on any level. The guys in the NFL make it look so easy and effortless, that the normal fan doesn't know how rare a talent those guys possess. When I say someone is inexperienced, I figure they know what that means without having to go into such detail. Not to get too far off topic, but I wonder how many people have spent any time taking snaps from center in game conditions (not intramurals or backyard stuff) on this board? Simply taking the exchange and getting your footwork and timing down on a handoff are actually quite difficult. Hard to explain to someone unless they've done it. But remembering the play, the snap count, knowing what each member of your team is supposed to do, and trying to figure out what the defense is going to do and then executing is extremely challenging. Then you have to make decisions and execute phyiscally with incredible precision in a very condensed time frame. This is not easy.Rivers will see and experience things this year that he never has. Up to this point, he has handled each step to the next level with flying colors. However, it is not a seamless transition. He will struggle, how much remains to be seen. I've said it before, but QB is not a plug and play position,. When guys like Brady and Rothlisberger have early success, people think others can do it as well...which they can, but it is rare when they do.
 
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Marty usually makes the playoffs. If he does turn out to have a soft schedule, I'd expect him to. Marty has coached 20 years. He's had 2 losing seasons:

7-9 with 1998 Chiefs

4-12 with 2003 Chargers

 
H.K. said:
Gr00vus said:
People keep talking about Rivers. All he needs to do is take care of the ball. They won't need him to win games, just not to lose them.
Click to expand...
Groovus, You are one of my favorite posters...
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Thanks, man I really appreciate that. I honestly didn't think too many people listened to me (not that I think they should), so it's nice to hear that.Back to the important stuff....

... but this line is ridiculous. Unless you think they can win games by never passing, Rivers will be needed produce.

"All he needs to do is take care of the ball" is easier said than done. See the INT Urlacher took back for six points against him a few weeks ago as an example. If it were as easy to do as it were to say, then every QB would be turnover free.

People think I bash Rivers, but I don't. I simply recognize the challenge of reading a defense accurately, making reads, being on the same page as your receivers making their reads, remaining calm while 300 lb behomoths are trying to maim you, and acurately delivering a pass where only your player can catch it....all in about 2.5 to 3 seconds.

Playing QB at the NFL level is extremely difficult. There are only 32 people qualified to do it on a weekly basis. There is a rare combination of athletic talent, intelligence, dedication, and leadership that comprise the requirements for the job, which explains why so few people on the planet can do it.

I like Rivers, I think he has the physical, mental, and intangible skills needed to succeed. However, he will go through a learning curve. Everyone does. Time will tell how quickly he develops. But expecting the task to be as simple as "not losing games" is nonsense. He will need to make throws to keep drives alive. He will need to win games in the last two minutes. He will need to do more than hand off to LT and focus on Gates.

Games in the NFL tend to be pretty close. Three or four big plays each week usually dictate the outcome. He'll be relied upon to make more big plays for his team than he does against them.

His success or failure will determine how well the team does.
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I agree with just about everything you're saying here, and it's my fault for being vague about what I meant. To me there are QBs who can win games all on their own, there are QBs who try to win games all on their own and shouldn't, and then there's everybody else. QBs who can win games all on their own are guys like Peyton Manning, there aren't many like him. What I'm saying is that Rivers just needs to be an "everybody else" who doesn't try to win games on their own - we've all seen guys try to do that. Now just being an "everybody else," a Trent Dilfer, a caretaker, yeah that's not as easy as falling out of bed to be sure, and there is definitely a discipline involved in not trying to do too much. I think Rivers can be that kind of guy this year. I DON'T think he'll be called upon to make lots of big plays game to game - I think the defense is good enough not to put him in that kind of situation. That's the key - it's not so much how I feel about Rivers becomming a good to great QB, it''s about how the defense isn't going to force Rivers to be a good to great QB fo this team to get 10 wins. He can be average and they'll do that - I think he can be average this year.That's my take on it. Bycycle Seat Sniffer - is it too much blind faith to think Rivers could be average this year? Now H.K. I think you're saying he'll be worse than average. If it turns out that way, then I'd agree with you that it'd be hard for the Chargers to make the playoffs. But as I said before I think Rivers will be o.k. - not great, maybe not even good, but at least o.k.

And if somehow Rivers is better than average, we can start talking championship.

 
Gr00vus said:
Now H.K. I think you're saying he'll be worse than average. If it turns out that way, then I'd agree with you that it'd be hard for the Chargers to make the playoffs. But as I said before I think Rivers will be o.k. - not great, maybe not even good, but at least o.k.And if somehow Rivers is better than average, we can start talking championship.
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"Less than average" is a relative term. Consider the following:Last year San Diego went 10-6...and they didn't make the playoffs.The average NFL team scored over 20 points a week, and the average AFC team scored 21 points a game....San Diego averaged over 26.The Chargers defense gave up 19.5 points a game, barely better than the NFL average offensive output. A good offense can help out a defense by sustaining drives, improving field position, forcing teams to play catch-up, etc.The theory of simply letting the defense keep them in games appears to be a tenuous proposition. This is a good defense, but not a dominant one.I think it will be very tough for Rivers to step in as a QB and the Chargers retain that type of offensive output differential in the league and conference.
 
H.K. said:
The theory of simply letting the defense keep them in games appears to be a tenuous proposition. This is a good defense, but not a dominant one.
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Ah, now we come to it. Here is the real bone of contention. I think they could very well be a dominant defense this season. I know there are questions about the secondary, but they've looked solid back there this preseason. These guys have been flying around this summer and making things happen. If they can maintain that through the regular season people are going to be in for a rude awakening.
 
That reminds me, anyone watching the game tonight?

Are they going to let anyone of note play or have they packed it in for the preseason? I'd love to see more of Cromartie's play, but I doubt they risk it.

Any storylines worth following? Anyone worth watching? I can't think of any.

 
H.K. said:
Gr00vus said:
Now H.K. I think you're saying he'll be worse than average. If it turns out that way, then I'd agree with you that it'd be hard for the Chargers to make the playoffs. But as I said before I think Rivers will be o.k. - not great, maybe not even good, but at least o.k.

And if somehow Rivers is better than average, we can start talking championship.
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"Less than average" is a relative term. Consider the following:Last year San Diego went 10-6...and they didn't make the playoffs.

The average NFL team scored over 20 points a week, and the average AFC team scored 21 points a game....San Diego averaged over 26.

The Chargers defense gave up 19.5 points a game, barely better than the NFL average offensive output. A good offense can help out a defense by sustaining drives, improving field position, forcing teams to play catch-up, etc.

The theory of simply letting the defense keep them in games appears to be a tenuous proposition. This is a good defense, but not a dominant one.

I think it will be very tough for Rivers to step in as a QB and the Chargers retain that type of offensive output differential in the league and conference.
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Actually, San Diego went 9-7 last year. KC was the team that went 10-6 and didn't make the playoffs.Also, for all of this talk about how good SD is, their starters got absolutely DRUBBED in week 17 by Denver's scrubs. Schottenheimer was talking about how that game was their Superbowl, and they were going to do anything they could to win it, while Denver's seeding was set. Denver didn't even dress some of its players (including both of its starting CBs, its starting RB, its starting MLB, and iirc two of its starting OLs), and removed the rest of its starters after the first half... and Denver still absolutely HUMILIATED SD that week.

SD was very overrated last year.

 
spec1alk said:
I also wanted to mention that last year they had several close loses by about a field goal. They also played 4 games against opponents that were coming off bye weeks. The win percentage for teams coming off bye weeks is something like 75%.

They lost to DAL in week 1 without gates by 4 pts.

Lost to DEN in week 2 by a field goal with just seconds to go.

In week 5 they lost to PIT by a field goal with 6 seconds left (PIT was coming off their bye)

Beat OAK in week 6 (oak was coming off a bye)

Lost to PHI in week 7 after a phantom holding call and a field goal attempt was blocked and returned for a TD (PHI was coming off a bye)

Weak 9 beat the Jets in what I felt was a close game. Jets were coming off a bye.

Heartbreaking loss to MIA in week 14 by 2 pts. Close game and MIA brought alot of pressue against brees.

They beat IND in week 15 but were already out of the playoffs when they lost to KC and DEN.

In short, they lost several VERY close games against good teams. You take away PIT and PHI bye weeks and I strongly feel san diego wins those games.

All that being said, yes I realize rivers is basically a rookie but this is also the class that eli manning and big ben came out of. Rivers football intelligence is supposed to be excellent. Yes, I realize rivers will be called upon to win some games, but the point that was made earlier about rivers not having to win them was more in the respect that the chargers can (and will) win games with rivers throwing for 20 or less passes. This is not the case with teams like IND, CAR, STL and PHI (probly DET as well) where their playoff hopes hinge on their QBs. If San diego can win the turnover battle, they should be able to win games with the run and their defense.
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No it isn't. Actually, its remarkably close to 50%. And you failed to point out that some of those teams they faced coming off of the bye were historically the worst post-bye teams in NFL history.
 
H.K. said:
The average NFL team scored over 20 points a week, and the average AFC team scored 21 points a game....San Diego averaged over 26.The Chargers defense gave up 19.5 points a game, barely better than the NFL average offensive output.
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You seem comfortable talking about how the Chargers compare to the averages, but their schedule wasn't average. It was by far-and-away the toughest schedule in the NFL last year, and that doesn't even take into consideration all the East Coast road trips.I don't think that will be the case this year.
 
SSOG said:
H.K. said:
Gr00vus said:
Now H.K. I think you're saying he'll be worse than average. If it turns out that way, then I'd agree with you that it'd be hard for the Chargers to make the playoffs. But as I said before I think Rivers will be o.k. - not great, maybe not even good, but at least o.k.

And if somehow Rivers is better than average, we can start talking championship.
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"Less than average" is a relative term. Consider the following:Last year San Diego went 10-6...and they didn't make the playoffs.

The average NFL team scored over 20 points a week, and the average AFC team scored 21 points a game....San Diego averaged over 26.

The Chargers defense gave up 19.5 points a game, barely better than the NFL average offensive output. A good offense can help out a defense by sustaining drives, improving field position, forcing teams to play catch-up, etc.

The theory of simply letting the defense keep them in games appears to be a tenuous proposition. This is a good defense, but not a dominant one.

I think it will be very tough for Rivers to step in as a QB and the Chargers retain that type of offensive output differential in the league and conference.
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Actually, San Diego went 9-7 last year. KC was the team that went 10-6 and didn't make the playoffs.Also, for all of this talk about how good SD is, their starters got absolutely DRUBBED in week 17 by Denver's scrubs. Schottenheimer was talking about how that game was their Superbowl, and they were going to do anything they could to win it, while Denver's seeding was set. Denver didn't even dress some of its players (including both of its starting CBs, its starting RB, its starting MLB, and iirc two of its starting OLs), and removed the rest of its starters after the first half... and Denver still absolutely HUMILIATED SD that week.

SD was very overrated last year.
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:thumbdown: Gimmie a break, you can't be serious about that. The Chargers should have beaten Denver in Denver week three - Drew Brees's magical interception tour was the only thing that stopped them. Whatever Marty said about that last game, it was in truth meaningless and of no account. There are other games they should have won that they didn't you can question them on, but that one isn't worth commenting on. They were indeed maddeningly inconsistent, but in no way were they overrated. Shame on you, I expect better of you than that.

 
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Gr00vus said:
That reminds me, anyone watching the game tonight?Are they going to let anyone of note play or have they packed it in for the preseason? I'd love to see more of Cromartie's play, but I doubt they risk it.
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With the exceptions of Marcus McNeill and Donie Edwards, none of the starters will play. I don't know whether Cromartie will play. I suspect they'll try to get as much playing time for guys like Marcus Curry, Steve Gregory, and Cletis Gordon since they're going to have to keep one of them (even though they all stink).
 
Maurile Tremblay said:
Gr00vus said:
That reminds me, anyone watching the game tonight?Are they going to let anyone of note play or have they packed it in for the preseason? I'd love to see more of Cromartie's play, but I doubt they risk it.
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With the exceptions of Marcus McNeill and Donie Edwards, none of the starters will play. I don't know whether Cromartie will play. I suspect they'll try to get as much playing time for guys like Marcus Curry, Steve Gregory, and Cletis Gordon since they're going to have to keep one of them (even though they all stink).
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I'll keep an eye on McNeill, that will be interesting.
 
SSOG said:
Also, for all of this talk about how good SD is, their starters got absolutely DRUBBED in week 17 by Denver's scrubs. Schottenheimer was talking about how that game was their Superbowl, and they were going to do anything they could to win it, while Denver's seeding was set. Denver didn't even dress some of its players (including both of its starting CBs, its starting RB, its starting MLB, and iirc two of its starting OLs), and removed the rest of its starters after the first half... and Denver still absolutely HUMILIATED SD that week.SD was very overrated last year.
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Marty might have thought it was his Super Bowl because he was going to meet a huge contract incentive if he hit ten wins, but it wasn't for anybody actually playing the game. The Chargers were all but mathematically eliminated from the playoffs and knew that they had blown a perfect shot at the playoffs by letting one slip by them in Miami and getting drubbed in KC. There wasn't much emotionally left in them.Even after finishing a game behind KC, many sports analysts were referring to the Chargers as the best NFL team in history to miss the playoffs.
 
SSOG said:
Also, for all of this talk about how good SD is, their starters got absolutely DRUBBED in week 17 by Denver's scrubs.
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Denver matches up well against the Chargers. The Broncos are one of the few teams that can run the ball successfully against San Diego (especially when Portis was there), and their blitzing on defense always gave Brees a tremendous amount of trouble. (Rivers did better when he entered the game.)
SD was very overrated last year.
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Maybe, but not because they lost to Denver.BTW, I think it was Tomlinson who said that Brees' interception on the first play of the second half in week two (which Champ Bailey returned for a TD) was the turning point in both the Chargers' and the Broncos' seasons. Interesting statement, but he could be right. That play is what allowed the Broncos back into the game. Otherwise they would have started the season 0-2.
 
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Despyzer said:
Even after finishing a game behind KC, many sports analysts were referring to the Chargers as the best NFL team in history to miss the playoffs.
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I think it's safe to say the Colts, Patriots, Steelers, and Broncos were all praying that the Jaguars would make the playoffs instead of the Chargers.
 
Maurile Tremblay said:
BTW, I think it was Tomlinson who said that Brees' interception on the first play of the second half in week two (which Champ Bailey returned for a TD) was the turning point in both the Chargers' and the Broncos' seasons. Interesting statement, but he could be right. That play is what allowed the Broncos back into the game. Otherwise they would have started the season 0-2.
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I felt that way too. His interception just before halftime of that game as they were inside the 10 going in for a score didn't help much either. They left a lot on the table that day.
 
Gr00vus said:
SSOG said:
H.K. said:
Gr00vus said:
Now H.K. I think you're saying he'll be worse than average. If it turns out that way, then I'd agree with you that it'd be hard for the Chargers to make the playoffs. But as I said before I think Rivers will be o.k. - not great, maybe not even good, but at least o.k.

And if somehow Rivers is better than average, we can start talking championship.
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"Less than average" is a relative term. Consider the following:Last year San Diego went 10-6...and they didn't make the playoffs.

The average NFL team scored over 20 points a week, and the average AFC team scored 21 points a game....San Diego averaged over 26.

The Chargers defense gave up 19.5 points a game, barely better than the NFL average offensive output. A good offense can help out a defense by sustaining drives, improving field position, forcing teams to play catch-up, etc.

The theory of simply letting the defense keep them in games appears to be a tenuous proposition. This is a good defense, but not a dominant one.

I think it will be very tough for Rivers to step in as a QB and the Chargers retain that type of offensive output differential in the league and conference.
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Actually, San Diego went 9-7 last year. KC was the team that went 10-6 and didn't make the playoffs.Also, for all of this talk about how good SD is, their starters got absolutely DRUBBED in week 17 by Denver's scrubs. Schottenheimer was talking about how that game was their Superbowl, and they were going to do anything they could to win it, while Denver's seeding was set. Denver didn't even dress some of its players (including both of its starting CBs, its starting RB, its starting MLB, and iirc two of its starting OLs), and removed the rest of its starters after the first half... and Denver still absolutely HUMILIATED SD that week.

SD was very overrated last year.
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:thumbdown: Gimmie a break, you can't be serious about that. The Chargers should have beaten Denver in Denver week three - Drew Brees's magical interception tour was the only thing that stopped them. Whatever Marty said about that last game, it was in truth meaningless and of no account. There are other games they should have won that they didn't you can question them on, but that one isn't worth commenting on. They were indeed maddeningly inconsistent, but in no way were they overrated. Shame on you, I expect better of you than that.
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Wait, you want to take out Drew Brees' interception? Fine, you can take away Brees' interception that was returned for a TD, but in return you have to give back Mike Anderson's fumble on the one yard line. Mike Anderson fumbled only ONE other time all season. The SD fumble also happened to occur in the one game where he was wearing a flak jacket- which is known to increase the rate of fumbles. Champ Bailey, on the other hand, had 9 INTs last year. I would say that Mike Anderson's fumble was far more of a fluke than Brees' interception. Give Denver the ball back there, and they have a TD, which would make up for the one they lost on the Brees interception. The game would have still gone the same way.San Diego was a very good team last year, but they were DRASTICALLY overrated. Everyone talks about their 4 games on the east coast... but those games weren't the problem. SD was 3-1 on the east coast. Even if they'd gone 4-0, they wouldn't have made the playoffs.

Everyone talks about SD's games against teams coming off of the bye, but they ignore the fact that teams don't tend to win at a higher rate coming off of the bye than they do on any other week. In fact, one of the teams that SD faced after the bye happens to be the worst post-bye team in the history of the NFL, so playing Oakland after their bye could be seen as an ADVANTAGE.

People talk about San Diego as the best team to ever miss the playoffs. That is *UNBELIEVABLY OVERRATED*. Ignoring the fact that the 1985 Denver Broncos were 11-5 and missed the playoffs (compared to SD's mere 9-7), they weren't even the best AFC West team to miss the playoffs LAST SEASON. They were 8-4 and in the thick of the playoff chase and wound up losing at home to Miami, and getting drubbed by KC and then again by Denver's second stringers.

The best team to ever miss the playoffs DOES NOT LOSE AT HOME TO SECOND STRINGERS.

If you want to call San Diego a great team, I have no problem with that. If you want to call them the best team to ever miss the playoffs, then I have a HUGE problem with that. They were only the third best team in their own division last year.

Maurile Tremblay said:
SSOG said:
Also, for all of this talk about how good SD is, their starters got absolutely DRUBBED in week 17 by Denver's scrubs.
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Denver matches up well against the Chargers. The Broncos are one of the few teams that can run the ball successfully against San Diego (especially when Portis was there), and their blitzing on defense always gave Brees a tremendous amount of trouble. (Rivers did better when he entered the game.)
SD was very overrated last year.
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Maybe, but not because they lost to Denver.BTW, I think it was Tomlinson who said that Brees' interception on the first play of the second half in week two (which Champ Bailey returned for a TD) was the turning point in both the Chargers' and the Broncos' seasons. Interesting statement, but he could be right. That play is what allowed the Broncos back into the game. Otherwise they would have started the season 0-2.
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Like I said, if Mike Anderson hadn't been wearing a flak jacket, Denver wouldn't have even needed that INT return.Anyway, like I said, I don't care WHO you are. If you lose to a squad of second-stringers, you cannot make the claim that you're the best team to ever miss the playoffs. If your season went down the tubes because of a single interception, then you can't make the claim that you're the best team to ever miss the playoffs. You could have given San Diego either of those games against Denver, and Den still would have had a first round bye, and SD still would be sitting at home in January.

Maurile Tremblay said:
Despyzer said:
Even after finishing a game behind KC, many sports analysts were referring to the Chargers as the best NFL team in history to miss the playoffs.
Click to expand...
I think it's safe to say the Colts, Patriots, Steelers, and Broncos were all praying that the Jaguars would make the playoffs instead of the Chargers.
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Maybe, but I think it's equally safe to say that the Colts, Pats, Steelers, and Broncos would all rather have seen San Diego in the playoffs than Kansas City.
 
SSOG said:
Wait, you want to take out Drew Brees' interception? Fine, you can take away Brees' interception that was returned for a TD, but in return you have to give back Mike Anderson's fumble on the one yard line. Mike Anderson fumbled only ONE other time all season. The SD fumble also happened to occur in the one game where he was wearing a flak jacket- which is known to increase the rate of fumbles. Champ Bailey, on the other hand, had 9 INTs last year. I would say that Mike Anderson's fumble was far more of a fluke than Brees' interception. Give Denver the ball back there, and they have a TD, which would make up for the one they lost on the Brees interception. The game would have still gone the same way.
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Where did I say anything of the kind? The Chargers lost, plain and simple, but they were right in the game and had a chance to win it against the Broncos, at Denver. That's my point, in no way were they overrated last year. They also ended the Colts winning streak - or had you forgotten that? At least you admit they were a good team last year. I don't think even you believe the rest of your post - a meaningless game is a meaningless game, it's silly for you to try to attach such imortance to it. Otherwise I guess the Broncos must have been overrated as they lost even worse 34-10 to the Dolphins week one, a team who's under/over on wins at that point was 6. See, silly isn't it?Anyway, getting back to this year, I guess we'll just have to let them play the games, but unlike Bycycle Seat Sniffer I am optomistic that the Chargers will make the playoffs this year, and I think they have a more than legitimate chance to win the division.
 
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SSOG said:
Maybe, but I think it's equally safe to say that the Colts, Pats, Steelers, and Broncos would all rather have seen San Diego in the playoffs than Kansas City.
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I doubt it. The Chargers had already beaten the Colts and the Patriots, and lost to the Steelers in Pittsburgh on a last-second field goal in a game they really should have won.
 
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Maurile Tremblay said:
SSOG said:
Maybe, but I think it's equally safe to say that the Colts, Pats, Steelers, and Broncos would all rather have seen San Diego in the playoffs than Kansas City.
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I doubt it. The Chargers had already beaten the Colts and the Patriots, and lost to the Steelers in Pittsburgh on a last-second field goal in a game they really should have won.
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And the Chiefs didn't play Indy or Pitt, but they whupped up on New England, beat Denver, destroyed SD, and absolutely DEMOLISHED Cincinatti.KC's record vs. teams with winning records: 6-4 (KC, Indy, and Denver were the only teams with winning records in this stat, iirc)SD's record vs. teams with winning records: 5-6There's also the fact that, with both of their playoff lives on the line, KC walked away with a DECISIVE win when it mattered. And I'm also assuming that, at that point, Larry Johnson was a little bit more feared than LaDanian Tomlinson (who was in the middle of a massive late-season choke job).
 
Gr00vus said:
Where did I say anything of the kind? The Chargers lost, plain and simple, but they were right in the game and had a chance to win it against the Broncos, at Denver. That's my point, in no way were they overrated last year. They also ended the Colts winning streak - or had you forgotten that? At least you admit they were a good team last year. I don't think even you believe the rest of your post - a meaningless game is a meaningless game, it's silly for you to try to attach such imortance to it. Otherwise I guess the Broncos must have been overrated as they lost even worse 34-10 to the Dolphins week one, a team who's under/over on wins at that point was 6. See, silly isn't it?

Anyway, getting back to this year, I guess we'll just have to let them play the games, but unlike Bycycle Seat Sniffer I am optomistic that the Chargers will make the playoffs this year, and I think they have a more than legitimate chance to win the division.
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I'm not sure if you're aware of the circumstances following the last game of the season last year, but Marty Schottenheimer said several times that the final game was far from meaningless, that it was San Diego's superbowl, that they were making it a massive point of pride to end the season on a win and reach double digit victories and prove to the league that they were the best team to ever miss the playoffs, blah blah blah. The Chargers spent an entire week talking about how HUGE that game was for them, and how they were going to play it like there was no tomorrow and put the rest of the league on notice, etc, etc, etc. And then they came out and got humiliated by Denver's B-squad.
 
SSOG said:
I'm also assuming that, at that point, Larry Johnson was a little bit more feared than LaDanian Tomlinson (who was in the middle of a massive late-season choke job season long nagging injuries).
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Thought I'd fix that for you. Sorry to interrupt your Charger hating, please continue....
 
SSOG said:
I'm not sure if you're aware of the circumstances following the last game of the season last year, but Marty Schottenheimer said several times that the final game was far from meaningless, that it was San Diego's superbowl, that they were making it a massive point of pride to end the season on a win and reach double digit victories and prove to the league that they were the best team to ever miss the playoffs, blah blah blah. The Chargers spent an entire week talking about how HUGE that game was for them, and how they were going to play it like there was no tomorrow and put the rest of the league on notice, etc, etc, etc. And then they came out and got humiliated by Denver's B-squad.
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Asked and answered. To reiterate "Marty said" does not equate to "team really believed." The season was over, he knew it, they knew it, but what else can the coach say? You've beat this one to death - I think you may have got yourself conviced, but that's about it.Again, I return you to your regularly scheduled vacuous Charger bashing....
 
Gr00vus said:
Again, I return you to your regularly scheduled vacuous Charger bashing....
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I'd argue that everyone who calls the Chargers the best team to ever miss the playoffs is far more vacuous than the arguements that I've been making. Unless "the team said it was an important game and then got humiliated" is a vacuous arguement. Or "they played the Chiefs with their season on the line and then got humiliated" is a vacuous arguement. Or "they had a losing record vs. winning teams" is a vacuous arguement. Or "the 1985 Denver Broncos finished 11-5 compared to SD's 9-7" is a vacuous arguement.I'm not bashing the Chargers here. I like the Chargers a heck of a lot more than I like the Chiefs. I'm just saying that, while they were a top-10 team last season, they weren't even the best team in their own division to miss the playoffs- and there's not a single arguement you can make to convince me otherwise, especially considering that the Chiefs proved that one pretty thoroughly a couple of weeks before the end of the season.As a result, any time someone says that last year's Chargers were perhaps the best team to ever miss the playoffs (and trust me, a lot of people have said that), they're simply proving that the Chargers were OVERRATED. You can be very good and still overrated. For instance, if popular opinion was that last year's Denver Broncos were the best #2 seed ever, then Denver would be just as overrated as San Diego was last year, despite the fact that the Broncos were ridiculously good.P.S.- it wasn't just Marty who was talking up that game against Denver.
 
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SSOG said:
Gr00vus said:
Again, I return you to your regularly scheduled vacuous Charger bashing....
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I'd argue that everyone who calls the Chargers the best team to ever miss the playoffs is far more vacuous than the arguements that I've been making.
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I completely agree with you on this. However I never said anything like this at any time, and do not think it's true. My only argument is that the Chargers were a good team last year, they earned their 9-7 record, they left a lot on the table, they should have done more, they were inconsistent. They were a young team - so I'm taking a glass half full approach here going into this season.Last year is over. I think they build on last year, I think they can be at least 1 win better, possibly (probably?) more, which I think would make them just about a lock to get into the playoffs. And I think they punch a bunch of people in the mouth who weren't really expecting it while doing so.

:football:

 
SSOG said:
Gr00vus said:
They'll go to the playoffs, I like them slightly better than Denver (that's right, I said it) to win the division.People keep talking about Rivers. All he needs to do is take care of the ball. They won't need him to win games, just not to lose them. He'll be less important to their success this year than Brees was the last two.The real story here is the defense. I think they'll have the best defense in the division, possibly by a big margin. People are sleeping on them, and they're going to be in for a surprise as the season plays out.
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I don't know man, those CBs are BRUTAL. I question whether either of them is even among the top 64 CBs in the entire NFL. They'd be overmatched as NICKLE CBs, let alone starters lining up against the likes of Randy Moss, Javon Walker, Rod Smith, and Tony Gonzalez. Their front 7 is fabulous, but Denver's back 7 is just as fabulous, and Denver's front 4 is better than SD's back 4. I'd take Denver's D over SD's.
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Good points, but when you say fabulous, let alone twice in a sentance - don't you feel just a bit gayer than before?
 
SSOG said:
Marty Schottenheimer said several times that the final game was far from meaningless, that it was San Diego's superbowl, that they were making it a massive point of pride to end the season on a win and reach double digit victories and prove to the league that they were the best team to ever miss the playoffs, blah blah blah.
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What position was he playing that day again? For some reason I can't remember seeing him hit the field.
 
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