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McFadden: Hold or Sell? (1 Viewer)

C

countingcrow

Footballguy
I'm struggling with how to handle Mr. McFadden.

I'm lucky to have depth at the RB position but don't want to pass up a chance to move him while he is still a hot name.

Everyone knows he is injured (hamstring) but it hasn't slowed down the interest in him.

I guess I'm a little worried that Bush has a big day and earns more carries (in addition to his short-yardage work) while McFadden heals up.

What are you guys doing with him?

 
I also have depth at RB in the one league (dynasty) I own him in. I put him on the market for a WR after week 2. The only 2 offers I got were for Sidney Rice (who I love...but know will be out for a long time and now has Randy Moss in town) and Vincent Jackson.

He is a strong hold unless you get a good offer. And you won't get market value for him because he has a bad track record and now he is finally playing well. I think he will continue to be a very good PPR back. He has turned the corner. He just needs to shake the injury bug. He is not a prototypical RB. He runs very straight up and goes down pretty easy. But in space he is one of the best. And the Radiers have been getting him in space where he is deadly.

 
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Just sold him for Wallace.

No depth at WR plus I think he will be a beast when Ben "never seen a drunk chick that didn't want me" Roethlisberger returns.

 
I'm holding. Cable seems to think he'll be back sooner rather than later, and I'm not convinced that Bush can take over the starting job with just 1 or 2 weeks of lead dog time. In the league where I have Bush, I'll enjoy this week, but I think McFadden is still an 18-20 touch RB going forward. He's shown that while he can handle 25 carries, he doesn't need to be seeing that every week to produce.

If I needed an RB this week to avoid picking up a 3rd or 4th loss, I'd think about moving him if I could fetch someone comparable to use this week and next. Same if I got an overwhelming offer at WR.

 
I'd play up the Bush fears and go buy him. He wasn't a big red zone guy anyhow. He'll come back in a week or two and reclaim the starting job for a team with a sweet schedule.

 
I'm a Bush owner and have been battling with myself for the past few days about whether to go for Mcfadden. I was offered a deal of Mcfadden for Johnny Knox and Hines Ward. Right now, I'm not going for it, but I may be kicking myself in a few weeks for passing it up.

 
I won't answer your blatant WSID question directly, but I will say I think McFadden is top 10 when he plays.

Unless someone is really willing to overpay for McFadden (ie another top rb or elite qb/wr), I can't see how us owners have any choice but to hold.

 
I agree that he is potentially too valuable to just let go. It's got to be a wait and see approach with him because trade value will be determined once he returns and we see what kind of distribution there is between McFadden and Bush. I was surprised to see FBG's most recent 250 (standard scoring) have McFadden at RB19 going forward with 132 compared to Bush at RB55 with 55 points. Thoughts on those rankings?

 
solorca said:
I'm a Bush owner and have been battling with myself for the past few days about whether to go for Mcfadden. I was offered a deal of Mcfadden for Johnny Knox and Hines Ward. Right now, I'm not going for it, but I may be kicking myself in a few weeks for passing it up.
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You're not very good at this FF thing r u
 
We Tigers said:
I'm holding. Cable seems to think he'll be back sooner rather than later, and I'm not convinced that Bush can take over the starting job with just 1 or 2 weeks of lead dog time. In the league where I have Bush, I'll enjoy this week, but I think McFadden is still an 18-20 touch RB going forward. He's shown that while he can handle 25 carries, he doesn't need to be seeing that every week to produce.

If I needed an RB this week to avoid picking up a 3rd or 4th loss, I'd think about moving him if I could fetch someone comparable to use this week and next. Same if I got an overwhelming offer at WR.
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For 3.5 games before he's out hurt again! *Note* Play up that angle when trying to buy in PPR. I think he's a borderline RB1 in PPR this year, if his hammy stays attached.

 
qimqam said:
solorca said:
I'm a Bush owner and have been battling with myself for the past few days about whether to go for Mcfadden. I was offered a deal of Mcfadden for Johnny Knox and Hines Ward. Right now, I'm not going for it, but I may be kicking myself in a few weeks for passing it up.
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You're not very good at this FF thing r u
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Maybe not. Perhaps you can enlighten me.
 
sandlotshrink said:
I agree that he is potentially too valuable to just let go. It's got to be a wait and see approach with him because trade value will be determined once he returns and we see what kind of distribution there is between McFadden and Bush. I was surprised to see FBG's most recent 250 (standard scoring) have McFadden at RB19 going forward with 132 compared to Bush at RB55 with 55 points. Thoughts on those rankings?
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Going with the common thought that his hammy is a 1-2 week injury I would agree with those rankings. When McFadden plays he is a low end RB1. Considering he is missing this week and maybe another it would lower value for the rest of the year. Going with the same thought that it is only a 2wk injury that means Bush only has 2 wks as the primary carrier. So his long term value is very low.Now there is plenty of reason to think McFadden will miss more time this year then just the 1-2wks. If you are in that camp then the rankings would need adjustment.
 
I think we missed our window to sell McFadden. He was hard to get value for because of gua injury risk, now that he's injured it's going to be that much worse. The potential upside from holding now is so much greater than what you could get in a trade that it's hard to make the sell case at all, particularly since he was drafted as your rb3 at best. I think that those of us who traded away a higher drafted rb counting on McFadden would be better off prying bush away from gua owner than selling dmc low.

 
I'm trying to buy him low right now and doubt it will happen. He has a minor hamstring pull and is going to sit out a week. IMO not too much reason for pessimism.

 
CaptainHook said:
except now hes in a rbbc and he wont get the TDs. dont know why anyone would want anything to do with him
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So he pulls up lame in a game where he was on pace for 300 total yards and now it's a full-blown RBBC? Really? After being in the top five backs for the first four weeks?
 
Man I hope the McFadden owner in my league is thinking the same. Is there any article out there suggesting this that I could casually post in my league?

The thought that Bush has the ability to take McFadden's carries after what he has shown is completely ludicrous. This year, McFadden has looked every bit of what they were hoping they would get when they drafted him. Why on earth would they go away from him now? Because he pulled a hammy?

 
I almost started this exact topic yesterday.

I have him in 2 redraft leagues and already dumped him in one.

GUy is oft injured, dealing with a hammy again and has the pre-season starter in Bush chomping at the bit. Bush will get to showcase this weekend why he was #1 on the depth chart before injuring his hand....if he blows up I see Run DMC as change of pace or 3rd down back or at the very least a RBBC...

SELL, SELL, SELL

I traded him SU for Zack Miller (Oak) as my RB depth in that league is sick with Gore, Best, Charles + Blount while I was fumble####ing between Heap + Owen Daniels each week...

 
Do you seriously, honestly think that who the preseason starter was even the slightest influence on this situation?

if Bush averages over 5 ypc and goes over 100 yards and scores twice, we might have a conversation next week.

BTW, you will regret the hell out of that trade all year long.

 
Clifford said:
Do you seriously, honestly think that who the preseason starter was even the slightest influence on this situation?if Bush averages over 5 ypc and goes over 100 yards and scores twice, we might have a conversation next week.BTW, you will regret the hell out of that trade all year long.
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Perhaps I could've got more but he'd more than likely never start over Best/Charles and Gore is automatic for me...And from what little I've seen of Bush this year he looks great....I honestly see this as his window, this week right here to win that job back....I bet it's a full blown RBBC in a couple of weeks...two great talents that will both be on the field and Bush getting goal line carries.
 
Do you realize that McFadden, even after leaving in the third quarter, is tied with AP in rushing yardage for third in the league, and has the fifth-most receiving yards for RBs? Pretty sure he's second behind Foster in rush+rec yards.

You don't trade that for a TE.

 
I think both McFadden and Bush are sells right now (or very soon). Oakland doesn't need to run either one as a the main RB. It's pretty obvious that McFadden can't hold up with his skinny legs ( :shock: ) and the team obviously liked Bush enough that he was the starter during the preseason. Seems like a RBBC/time share to me with Bush getting goal line looks and McFadden being used in the passing game. There's still value in both, but McFadden's sell high point has past. Bush if he blows up Sunday will be the sell high guy too. Now if Bush gets shut out and looks bad, then maybe DMC can retain some value. Part of the risk of fantasy football.

 
OK, someone please explain to me how this makes sense

They drafted McFadden #5 overall thinking he could be a feature back and an explosive playmaker, after drafting Bush a year earlier.

This season he finally gets completely healthy and performs as well as any back in the league, far surpassing anything Bush has ever done with the team, healthy or not.

So, why on earth would this team limit mcFadden's touches to give them to Bush, when McFadden has performed as well as any back in the league thus far?

 
Clifford said:
OK, someone please explain to me how this makes senseThey drafted McFadden #5 overall thinking he could be a feature back and an explosive playmaker, after drafting Bush a year earlier.This season he finally gets completely healthy and performs as well as any back in the league, far surpassing anything Bush has ever done with the team, healthy or not.So, why on earth would this team limit mcFadden's touches to give them to Bush, when McFadden has performed as well as any back in the league thus far?
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They wouldn't, if McFadden is healthy the only people who think Bush will get meaningful carries are Bush owner's. I really think the way to get the best value out of Bush is to trade him this week to the McFadden owner.
 
Clifford said:
OK, someone please explain to me how this makes senseThey drafted McFadden #5 overall thinking he could be a feature back and an explosive playmaker, after drafting Bush a year earlier.This season he finally gets completely healthy and performs as well as any back in the league, far surpassing anything Bush has ever done with the team, healthy or not.So, why on earth would this team limit mcFadden's touches to give them to Bush, when McFadden has performed as well as any back in the league thus far?
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Because the Raiders do not believe he can remain healthy while absorbing the full load of a starting running back. Also because they believe that the drop off from McFadden to Bush is not that great and have no problem letting Bush shoulder some of the load. I don't think this is that hard to comprehend. Do I expect a full blown RBBC? Not necessarily. But I certainly would not be shocked to see Bush earn enough touches to significantly impact McFadden's fantasy potential. The time to sell him was BEFORE the eventual injury hit. Now that it has, he's probably a pure hold, unless you can still get pre-injury value for him.
 
If you're saying Bush will be used to spell McFadden and possibly in short-yardage situations then I agree. However that in no way makes McFadden a sell. People are saying this will kill his value. Being spelled is not going to kill his value.

70/30 :ph34r:

50/50 :lmao:

 
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Clifford said:
OK, someone please explain to me how this makes senseThey drafted McFadden #5 overall thinking he could be a feature back and an explosive playmaker, after drafting Bush a year earlier.This season he finally gets completely healthy and performs as well as any back in the league, far surpassing anything Bush has ever done with the team, healthy or not.So, why on earth would this team limit mcFadden's touches to give them to Bush, when McFadden has performed as well as any back in the league thus far?
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Uh...because he's broken down every single year he's been in the NFL?
 
Clifford said:
You don't trade that for a TE.
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YOu don't...I did ;) My depth at RB is real strong...was sick of playing the TE game as I whiffed on Daniels ...hoping Miller can solidify that position.PEr FBG Top 200 moving forward...Gore, Best + CHarles all outrank Run DMC. I myself couldn't start him over those guys, so he was bench material for me. COuld I have got more, perhaps, but I'm OK right now with my upgrade at TE and my 3-1 record atop my division. It didn't hurt either that I traded him outside the division so it shouldn't come back to bite me in that respect either :bye:
 
Clifford said:
Which is why they would hold him out when healthy?
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Which is why they would lighten his load a bit and take him out of short yardage situations. DMC has been a stud, but he was at a torrid pace in terms of touches. No one would hold up with that many. From a real life perspective, it makes sense if the Raiders used Bush a bit more. They obviously had the confidence in him as he was the starter in the preseason. Where DMC was drafted is irrelevant. It makes no sense to run him into the ground when all he's proven in his NFL career so far is that he gets hurt a lot.
 
Like I said in another thread, it wasn't as if McFadden was tearing it up in the red zone anyways. And he was still productive.

For where you drafted him (around round 10), you should have RB depth a-plenty. If you traded him away, great.

After the injury he's a hold, and a damn good one. No one should be complaining.

Edit: I should also add his perceived value was very low before the injury. He was producing RB5-10 numbers, I doubt you could have gotten equal value for that.

 
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Clifford said:
If you're saying Bush will be used to spell McFadden and possibly in short-yardage situations then I agree. However that in no way makes McFadden a sell. People are saying this will kill his value. Being spelled is not going to kill his value.70/30 :coffee:50/50 :lmao:
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:lmao: this is how I see it as well.Bush is a nice back, but McFadden has shown he's an elite talent. Given what he's done so far and Raiders having invested such a high pick in him, I don't see any reason that Bush will significantly eat into his stats if McFadden's healthy. Even if they knock him down to 15-18 carries per game, he'll still be a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 - he's still going to be majorly involved in the passing game regardless.now if an owner thinks he's going to be hurt all year, I could see them having a different outlook. But he's looked a lot more powerful and explosive on the field so far this year, and I would definitely wait to see how he comes back from the hamstring injury before doing anything rash - it could easily just be a minor setback on the way to a breakthrough season.
 
Here's my take as an initially reluctant McFadden owner.

He was my 4th RB drafted. He was basically going to be the first or second person I dropped when I played the waiver wire. I started him Weeks 2-4 and even with the injury during Week 4, he's produced way beyond my expectations.

I tried shopping him around after Week 1 but I wasn't getting any decent offers for him. I decided I'd ride him for the year.

He pulled his hammy (the other one, not the one he injured last week) during preseason and he missed 2 games. He then went bonkers for 4 weeks. Now he's pulled his other hamstring and I'm hoping he can miss a couple games and come back ok. I don't know if he will or if he'll be crippled the rest of the year.

Either way, he's directly responsible for 3 wins for me so far. Not bad for a 12th round pick. If you can move him for good value to improve your team, go for it. If you can afford to keep him on your bench for a couple weeks to see how he comes back, I think it's worth doing so. I'm not really worried about Bush taking over.

McFadden is (finally) a stud. I don't know how or why, but something finally clicked for him this year. He's running with authority. Hoping he can get healthy soon.

 
If you want to sell for maximum value, you missed the open window. You can sell now but you will get much less than you would have two weeks ago.

As far as whether you should sell now or not to salvage value, I guess you need to decide how well Bush will do with his start this week (and obviously McFadden's value will go down if Bush does well this Sunday and may go up if Bush does poorly).

The question will be: what will the time share be back when McFadden's hammy is better? No one really knows now. If Bush does great it is possible that he will be the primary and that McFadden will be used as a COP and third down and long guy, as a passing option. Or, it could be that he comes back and is the primary and they used Bush just on third and short and near the Goal. In either case, I think McFadden's role is going to be reduced. But in the one case his value will be all but gone except in PPR leagues; in the other case, he will still have good value, but less than he did two weeks ago.

 
az_prof said:
If you want to sell for maximum value, you missed the open window. You can sell now but you will get much less than you would have two weeks ago.

As far as whether you should sell now or not to salvage value, I guess you need to decide how well Bush will do with his start this week (and obviously McFadden's value will go down if Bush does well this Sunday and may go up if Bush does poorly).

The question will be: what will the time share be back when McFadden's hammy is better? No one really knows now. If Bush does great it is possible that he will be the primary and that McFadden will be used as a COP and third down and long guy, as a passing option. Or, it could be that he comes back and is the primary and they used Bush just on third and short and near the Goal. In either case, I think McFadden's role is going to be reduced. But in the one case his value will be all but gone except in PPR leagues; in the other case, he will still have good value, but less than he did two weeks ago.
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I completely disagree here. I do not think this is possible unless Bush literally averages 10 yards a carry and looks unstoppable. 22 carries for 85 yards and a touch will not get it done.How is McFadden's value any less than that of Rice even in the second scenario?

here is the bottom line: people, owners and non-owners alike, can't accept that he sucked so bad for the first two years AND the Raiders/McFadden supporters were right about him. We're talking about a top five back through four weeks. The only thing to do is see if the McFadden owner is undervaluing and buy him. Now might be the very last buy-low opportunity for McFadden. Personally I am praying that Bush has a great week so I can use that to buy low on him.

 
Clifford said:
az_prof said:
If you want to sell for maximum value, you missed the open window. You can sell now but you will get much less than you would have two weeks ago.

As far as whether you should sell now or not to salvage value, I guess you need to decide how well Bush will do with his start this week (and obviously McFadden's value will go down if Bush does well this Sunday and may go up if Bush does poorly).

The question will be: what will the time share be back when McFadden's hammy is better? No one really knows now. If Bush does great it is possible that he will be the primary and that McFadden will be used as a COP and third down and long guy, as a passing option. Or, it could be that he comes back and is the primary and they used Bush just on third and short and near the Goal. In either case, I think McFadden's role is going to be reduced. But in the one case his value will be all but gone except in PPR leagues; in the other case, he will still have good value, but less than he did two weeks ago.
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I completely disagree here. I do not think this is possible unless Bush literally averages 10 yards a carry and looks unstoppable. 22 carries for 85 yards and a touch will not get it done.How is McFadden's value any less than that of Rice even in the second scenario?

here is the bottom line: people, owners and non-owners alike, can't accept that he sucked so bad for the first two years AND the Raiders/McFadden supporters were right about him. We're talking about a top five back through four weeks. The only thing to do is see if the McFadden owner is undervaluing and buy him. Now might be the very last buy-low opportunity for McFadden. Personally I am praying that Bush has a great week so I can use that to buy low on him.
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You forget that their first two years Bush has outplayed McFadden. And that Bush was the starting back all off season and preseason. He had a thumb injury and McFadden got a chance to start without Bush around. McFadden did well. But I don't see why you would assume that he will come back from his hammy and just continue as if nothing has happened. Plus, at a certain point, a team has to look at durability and you simply cannot be a featured back if you aren't durable.
 
A RBs outlook can change drastically in a short time. DMC wasn't even going to start until Bush breaks his thumb. That shows the Raider staff thinks enough of Bush to get him quality touches and DMC has shown he tends to get nicked up. It would logically make sense to see the Raiders split the touches between the 2 once (if?) DMC comes back healthy. Yes he was a top 5 RB through 4 weeks, but if you honestly think he will be a top 5 RB once he comes back and Bush is healthy as well then you are only fooling yourself. Cable has stated before that they need BOTH RBs in order to succeed this year. He's not running a fantasy team so I believe him that he'll indeed use both.

 
It's fairly easy to outplay someone when hurt.

The knock on McFadden used to be that he sucked. This year has proved that false. The injury-prone label might have some validity, but then we have to apply that to every player who has had multiple hammy issues.

 
Clifford said:
If you're saying Bush will be used to spell McFadden and possibly in short-yardage situations then I agree. However that in no way makes McFadden a sell. People are saying this will kill his value. Being spelled is not going to kill his value.70/30 :lmao:50/50 :lmao:
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why do I have to keep repeating this?
 
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Northbound Train said:
I almost started this exact topic yesterday.I have him in 2 redraft leagues and already dumped him in one.GUy is oft injured, dealing with a hammy again and has the pre-season starter in Bush chomping at the bit. Bush will get to showcase this weekend why he was #1 on the depth chart before injuring his hand....if he blows up I see Run DMC as change of pace or 3rd down back or at the very least a RBBC...SELL, SELL, SELLI traded him SU for Zack Miller (Oak) as my RB depth in that league is sick with Gore, Best, Charles + Blount while I was fumble####ing between Heap + Owen Daniels each week...
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You dummy ... you could've at least gotten a Johnny Knox and an old Hines Ward for your Stud RB
 
Clifford said:
It's fairly easy to outplay someone when hurt.The knock on McFadden used to be that he sucked. This year has proved that false. The injury-prone label might have some validity, but then we have to apply that to every player who has had multiple hammy issues.
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That's not really relevant to the discussion. I never thought DMC sucked. I still don't. I'm just going off the facts, not my opinion. Facts:- Bush was starter in the off-season/preseason- Bush getting injured was primary reason DMC got the starting job- DMC looked fantastic in starting, but on pace for ridiculous amount of touches- DMC injury history and is injured again- Raiders coaching staff has stated they need both RBs to do wellLooking at all of those facts, it's not crazy to think the Raiders might want to lower DMC's touches when he gets back and get Bush more involved. No one knows how it will break down and that's why we are here debating :unsure:
 
az_prof said:
Clifford said:
az_prof said:
If you want to sell for maximum value, you missed the open window. You can sell now but you will get much less than you would have two weeks ago.

As far as whether you should sell now or not to salvage value, I guess you need to decide how well Bush will do with his start this week (and obviously McFadden's value will go down if Bush does well this Sunday and may go up if Bush does poorly).

The question will be: what will the time share be back when McFadden's hammy is better? No one really knows now. If Bush does great it is possible that he will be the primary and that McFadden will be used as a COP and third down and long guy, as a passing option. Or, it could be that he comes back and is the primary and they used Bush just on third and short and near the Goal. In either case, I think McFadden's role is going to be reduced. But in the one case his value will be all but gone except in PPR leagues; in the other case, he will still have good value, but less than he did two weeks ago.
Click to expand...
I completely disagree here. I do not think this is possible unless Bush literally averages 10 yards a carry and looks unstoppable. 22 carries for 85 yards and a touch will not get it done.How is McFadden's value any less than that of Rice even in the second scenario?

here is the bottom line: people, owners and non-owners alike, can't accept that he sucked so bad for the first two years AND the Raiders/McFadden supporters were right about him. We're talking about a top five back through four weeks. The only thing to do is see if the McFadden owner is undervaluing and buy him. Now might be the very last buy-low opportunity for McFadden. Personally I am praying that Bush has a great week so I can use that to buy low on him.
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You forget that their first two years Bush has outplayed McFadden. And that Bush was the starting back all off season and preseason. He had a thumb injury and McFadden got a chance to start without Bush around. McFadden did well. But I don't see why you would assume that he will come back from his hammy and just continue as if nothing has happened. Plus, at a certain point, a team has to look at durability and you simply cannot be a featured back if you aren't durable.
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hold on a second there - it's not like Bush has significantly outplayed McFadden over the past two years, even with McFadden's injuries. Last year Bush had a couple hundred more yards rushing - but he played in four more games than McFadden, who was nicked up most of the year. Meanwhile, McFadden had more rushing yardage than Bush in '08, and more than double Bush's receiving yardage both years. I think that if he's fully healthy, there's no doubt that McFadden is the more explosive runner and better all-around talent.I also think it's too early to write McFadden off with durability issues, both in FF and real life. I agree with you that the signs so far are not encouraging, but the guy is only entering his third year in the league and it's still very early in his career. If he misses a bunch of games with this hamstring problem and/or plays sporadically the rest of the year, then fine - labeling him injury-prone at that point is OK with me.

But I think all signs point to this being a minor injury and he'll come back after a game or two. If that's the case I believe the Raiders are going to continue to give him every opportunity to succeed as their #1 back this year - he's been too much of a monster at the beginning of the season to just put him back on the bench because Bush is now healthy.

 
No one said they would bench him. It's possible he shares carries, gets the receptions but loses the short yardage stuff. Or the Raiders use them at the same time. No one really knows until both of them get healthy at the same time for once.

 
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