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Brandon Lloyd (1 Viewer)

wiscstlatlmia

Footballguy
He recently Came up in a conversation I was having with one of my buddies. We were discussing his dynasty value and were both on opposite sides of The Discussion. He was just blown away with the fact that Lloyd has little value (dynasty wise) and kept telling me the guy was an elite talent and how hes been this good throughout his career, he has just never put it together before.I realize Highlight tapes are a terrible way to judge a player but he had me watch his highlights from last year.After watching them I was the one blown away. The guy just makes plays That he has have no business making for his size. Sometimes it looks like hes got springs for legs when he goes up for the ball. He isnt the most Imposing presence(Calvin, Andre ,etc) But IMO he has one of the best body control/ hands combos in the game. I dont claim to be a great Scout or think I am great at evaluating talent, But from my perspective this guy looks like an elite talent Who just started to add the work ethic part to his game.

Just from looking at this from the outside, I look at the facts:

-guy was drafted in the late 4th round In 2003 To the 49ers

-Stayed on there roster for 3 years never posting over 733 yards

-The Niners had enough of him so they traded him to the Redskins for two mid round picks and spends the next two years there

-the first year posting 23 catches for 365 yards in 15 games

-The second year He was hardly relevant Before breaking his collarbone( played in 8 games going for 2 catches for 14 yards in those games)

-After being cut by the redskins Lloyd gets picked up by the bears and spends a year with him posting 26 catches for 364 yards

-After not being resigned by the by the bears he gets picked up AGAIN...by the Broncos

-His first year with them He does just about nothing with an 8 catch for 117 yard season.

-Even though he does nothing the first year, the Broncos decide to keep him anyway

-You guys obviously know what happened last year with Lloyd having his first break out year(77 catches 1448 yards and 11 tds)

Looking at these facts I believe there is NO way in hell an average or slightly above average talent could stick around in the league for that long while accomplishing nothing. There had to be a reason that teams kept taking chances on this guy right? He was in the league for 7 years never posting over 733 yards and never getting over 48 catches. While, also having 5 of those 7 years being under 400 yards.

Im relatively new to fantasy football and dynasty leagues (This upcoming year will be my 3rd) So Lloyd has never really been on my radar before last week(even during the season I just kinda ignored him and assumed he was a one year wonder). My questions go out to people that were around since 2003 when he was drafted. What was he thought of at the time he was a rookie? Did he ever have a lot of value at any point in the last 7 years (prior to this year)?Do you think hes a one hit wonder or has finally gotten it? All thoughts and opinions on Lloyd are welcome I just wanna get a better read on this guy before I buy in all my leagues.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RdBIJOadVzk

This is the tape I watched and I suggest you do too. Even if you dont like his dynasty value just watch an impressive few minutes of football.

 
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You should remember 90% of those highlights are with Kyle Orton at quarterback. Tebow threw him a couple touchdown passes at the end of the year but you never know if they jell or not.

 
I think he legit. I won't value him as a dynasty WR1, until he does it again. But I think he is a dynasty WR2 with high upside. His numbers did not drop with Tebow running the show.

 
I think he is a solid player, when healthy, but not an elite talent. Had an awesome year last year though, no denying. The change of offensive schemes has me worried about him though.

 
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You should remember 90% of those highlights are with Kyle Orton at quarterback. Tebow threw him a couple touchdown passes at the end of the year but you never know if they jell or not.
Lloyd's per game numbers with each QB:
Code:
Games  trgts/g  rec/g  yards/g   TD/gOrton   13    9.62     4.62    91.15    0.69Tebow    3    9.33     4.67    87.67    0.67
 
You should remember 90% of those highlights are with Kyle Orton at quarterback. Tebow threw him a couple touchdown passes at the end of the year but you never know if they jell or not.
Lloyd's per game numbers with each QB:
Code:
Games  trgts/g  rec/g  yards/g   TD/gOrton   13    9.62     4.62    91.15    0.69Tebow    3    9.33     4.67    87.67    0.67
Looks pretty consistent to me. Barring a big WR splash (to give saint tebow some weapons), I don't see why Lloyd won't continue to do well going forward. Are there any other scheme changes we need to consider?
 
He needs to do it again, or put up close to what he did in 2010.

I had him in 2004, 2005, and into 2006. He would occasionally make amazing highlight reel catches, as well as drop some easy ones and if I remember correctly, he was considered poor route runner back then. Maybe he has figured it out after all those years.

 
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One hit wonder until proven otherwise, looking at his career #'s 2010 screams outlier. Let someone else gamble on him

 
he made some amazing catches, no reason to think that won't continue. He's figured it out and gotten more consistent as well as improved route running. Only issue is how long can he last? He's already 29

 
Here is a very nice discussion on Lloyd. If you are a subscriber, Matt Waldman did a fantastic article which is linked in the thread.
 
I see the discussion revolving the QBs, but think the more valuable talk might be centered around Lloyd's upside in the new offense compared to that of Josh McDaniels. I assume Fox will be much more conservative than his predecessor.

 
I see the discussion revolving the QBs, but think the more valuable talk might be centered around Lloyd's upside in the new offense compared to that of Josh McDaniels. I assume Fox will be much more conservative than his predecessor.
Could be a dangerous assumption with a John Fox WR twice finishing as the #1 WR in our hobby.
 
'Steed said:
'Jeff Tefertiller said:
I see the discussion revolving the QBs, but think the more valuable talk might be centered around Lloyd's upside in the new offense compared to that of Josh McDaniels. I assume Fox will be much more conservative than his predecessor.
Could be a dangerous assumption with a John Fox WR twice finishing as the #1 WR in our hobby.
I understand your point, and appreciate the seasons Muhsin and Smith had, but McDaniels liked to air it out much more than Fox.
 
'Steed said:
'Jeff Tefertiller said:
I see the discussion revolving the QBs, but think the more valuable talk might be centered around Lloyd's upside in the new offense compared to that of Josh McDaniels. I assume Fox will be much more conservative than his predecessor.
Could be a dangerous assumption with a John Fox WR twice finishing as the #1 WR in our hobby.
I understand your point, and appreciate the seasons Muhsin and Smith had, but McDaniels liked to air it out much more than Fox.
Which might mean the opposite: That over time, McDaniels would have created a Patriots-like passing system that devalues individual members of the receiving corps.Whereas Fox has shown the tendency to give the targets to a single #1 guy. No one knows what will happen at this juncture, but its worth considering that the situation doesn't HAVE to get worse for Lloyd.
 
'Steed said:
'Jeff Tefertiller said:
I see the discussion revolving the QBs, but think the more valuable talk might be centered around Lloyd's upside in the new offense compared to that of Josh McDaniels. I assume Fox will be much more conservative than his predecessor.
Could be a dangerous assumption with a John Fox WR twice finishing as the #1 WR in our hobby.
I understand your point, and appreciate the seasons Muhsin and Smith had, but McDaniels liked to air it out much more than Fox.
Which might mean the opposite: That over time, McDaniels would have created a Patriots-like passing system that devalues individual members of the receiving corps.Whereas Fox has shown the tendency to give the targets to a single #1 guy. No one knows what will happen at this juncture, but its worth considering that the situation doesn't HAVE to get worse for Lloyd.
I would personally chalk that up to QBs and how they target players and not an offensive scheme or specifically the HC. I'm not sure Fox as a HC (isn't he more of a D guy anyway?) is impacting how his QB targets specific WRs all too much.For me, McDaniels ran an effective pass-heavy O, it seems... and that is generally good for the WRs as a whole. Lloyd had a great year in this system. There will be a new system in place now and this is a bit of an unknown. This unknown has me worried. I'd feel a bit better about Lloyd if McDaniels was still the head coach. Fox in town puts another question mark in the list of question marks Lloyd already has when analyzing his chances of being an elite producer at WR.
 
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The OC is still the same as McD had, right? Also, there D will still be crappy so they'll be in catch up mode, at least for next season

Those recommending to 'sell high' is ridiculous. You can't get fair value so owners are better off holding

 
I'd try and sell him... Given the switch in HC and the uncertainty at QB I just think the chances of him replicating last seasons numbers are not good.

If I could get Dez Bryant, Mike Williams (TB), Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Steve Johnson, or my favorite WR sleeper of the year Mario Manningham for him, I'd be pretty excited about it.

 
The OC is still the same as McD had, right? Also, there D will still be crappy so they'll be in catch up mode, at least for next seasonThose recommending to 'sell high' is ridiculous. You can't get fair value so owners are better off holding
If the OC is staying, leaving McD's O in place, and will be calling the plays, then this is good news for Lloyd. IMO. I tend to agree that Lloyd is a hold. I have a suspicion that no one will pony up anything close to what his upside is. With the questions that I feel surround Lloyd, I think that makes sense... so it leaves his current owners in a 'hold' position unless they are firmly not believers of him going forward and are fine selling at a discount.
 
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I'd try and sell him... Given the switch in HC and the uncertainty at QB I just think the chances of him replicating last seasons numbers are not good.

If I could get Dez Bryant, Mike Williams (TB), Percy Harvin, Jeremy Maclin, Steve Johnson, or my favorite WR sleeper of the year Mario Manningham for him, I'd be pretty excited about it.
It would blow my mind if you could get any of the bolded for him.
 
I am thinking one hit wonder and worry about the new system that he is playing in I won my league with him last year and he was my top WR but just traded him for V. Jackson.

 
I am thinking one hit wonder and worry about the new system that he is playing in I won my league with him last year and he was my top WR but just traded him for V. Jackson.
what new system? Mike McCoy is still the OC
Mike McCoy

Offensive coordinator; born April 1, 1972, San Francisco. Quarterback Long Beach State 1990-91, Utah 1992-94. Pro quarterback Amsterdam Admirals (NFLE) 1997, Calgary Stampeders (CFL) 1999. Pro coach: Carolina Panthers 1999-2008. Joined Broncos in 2009
http://www.nfl.com/teams/coaches?coaType=assist&team=DENI'm amazed someone gave up VJax for him, nobody in my leagues would come close to that

 
Sure if you can get value for him relative to his production last year it's probably a good idea to deal him.

Problem with that and why he's NOT a Sell High in the majority of leagues is that most people in this hobby view him as a one year wonder so how do you sell that high?

This is why I contend he's either a hold or a buy low. If you own him and you can't bring back anything in a trade closely resembling his performance last year I'd hold him and if he can reproduce a similar season it should wipe away one year wonder concerns and his value should be very high. If you don't own him I think now might be a good time to try and acquire him, if the price is right (cheap),from the owner who fears he was a one year wonder.

 
Sure if you can get value for him relative to his production last year it's probably a good idea to deal him.Problem with that and why he's NOT a Sell High in the majority of leagues is that most people in this hobby view him as a one year wonder so how do you sell that high?This is why I contend he's either a hold or a buy low. If you own him and you can't bring back anything in a trade closely resembling his performance last year I'd hold him and if he can reproduce a similar season it should wipe away one year wonder concerns and his value should be very high. If you don't own him I think now might be a good time to try and acquire him, if the price is right (cheap),from the owner who fears he was a one year wonder.
:goodposting: my thoughts exactly. It seems he isn't getting credit anywhere(including this thread).
 
Sure if you can get value for him relative to his production last year it's probably a good idea to deal him.Problem with that and why he's NOT a Sell High in the majority of leagues is that most people in this hobby view him as a one year wonder so how do you sell that high?This is why I contend he's either a hold or a buy low. If you own him and you can't bring back anything in a trade closely resembling his performance last year I'd hold him and if he can reproduce a similar season it should wipe away one year wonder concerns and his value should be very high. If you don't own him I think now might be a good time to try and acquire him, if the price is right (cheap),from the owner who fears he was a one year wonder.
:goodposting: my thoughts exactly. It seems he isn't getting credit anywhere(including this thread).
He'll never have any real value - even if he does it again, he'll be too old. The best one can hope for is he starts the year off good, and a contender buys him midseason. Otherwise, he's a hold. I own him in a few places, and I'm very content to just keep him.
 
Sure if you can get value for him relative to his production last year it's probably a good idea to deal him.Problem with that and why he's NOT a Sell High in the majority of leagues is that most people in this hobby view him as a one year wonder so how do you sell that high?This is why I contend he's either a hold or a buy low. If you own him and you can't bring back anything in a trade closely resembling his performance last year I'd hold him and if he can reproduce a similar season it should wipe away one year wonder concerns and his value should be very high. If you don't own him I think now might be a good time to try and acquire him, if the price is right (cheap),from the owner who fears he was a one year wonder.
:goodposting: my thoughts exactly. It seems he isn't getting credit anywhere(including this thread).
He'll never have any real value - even if he does it again, he'll be too old. The best one can hope for is he starts the year off good, and a contender buys him midseason. Otherwise, he's a hold. I own him in a few places, and I'm very content to just keep him.
i had a gyu who's team was going nowhere turn down a first roudne for him last year. wanted to hold him hostage.
 
He'll never have any real value - even if he does it again, he'll be too old.
Not really. I mean you'd like him to be mid 20's but he's only turning 30 in July. I'm not exactly in lock step agreement with the Dynasty rankings on this site but it's not to wildly off the norm. Don't want to nitpick the rankings to death but as a point of conversation and to gauge the impact of Lloyd's age I think it's worth noting that 3 of the top 6 WR's on this sites rankings were are all born within a few months or more of Lloyd.
 
He'll never have any real value - even if he does it again, he'll be too old.
Not really. I mean you'd like him to be mid 20's but he's only turning 30 in July. I'm not exactly in lock step agreement with the Dynasty rankings on this site but it's not to wildly off the norm. Don't want to nitpick the rankings to death but as a point of conversation and to gauge the impact of Lloyd's age I think it's worth noting that 3 of the top 6 WR's on this sites rankings were are all born within a few months or more of Lloyd.
Let's not confuse the issue here with facts, ok?
 
If I could get <snip> Mario Manningham for him, I'd be pretty excited about it.
Surely you can get Manningham and at least a bag of chips and a soda for Lloyd. If you are that sold on Manningham, pull the trigger!
Seriously, you could easily get Manningham for Lloyd I'd think.
Not to hijack the thread or anything, but Manningham will blow Lloyd away this year. Manningham had a better year than Colston last year, and wasn't even a starter. This year he's likely to start opposite Nicks.
 
If I could get <snip> Mario Manningham for him, I'd be pretty excited about it.
Surely you can get Manningham and at least a bag of chips and a soda for Lloyd. If you are that sold on Manningham, pull the trigger!
Seriously, you could easily get Manningham for Lloyd I'd think.
Not to hijack the thread or anything, but Manningham will blow Lloyd away this year. Manningham had a better year than Colston last year, and wasn't even a starter. This year he's likely to start opposite Nicks.
I think you're dead wrong but we shall certainly see. Steve Smith is coming back IMO and he wills start -- he runs better routes than Manningham and has better hands than him. Manningham is a good WR but the Giants love Smith -- if he's healthy they'll push hard to retain him, as he is a terrific possession receiver. Manningham is more like Nicks, but not as good.
 
Sure if you can get value for him relative to his production last year it's probably a good idea to deal him.Problem with that and why he's NOT a Sell High in the majority of leagues is that most people in this hobby view him as a one year wonder so how do you sell that high?This is why I contend he's either a hold or a buy low. If you own him and you can't bring back anything in a trade closely resembling his performance last year I'd hold him and if he can reproduce a similar season it should wipe away one year wonder concerns and his value should be very high. If you don't own him I think now might be a good time to try and acquire him, if the price is right (cheap),from the owner who fears he was a one year wonder.
:goodposting: my thoughts exactly. It seems he isn't getting credit anywhere(including this thread).
He'll never have any real value - even if he does it again, he'll be too old. The best one can hope for is he starts the year off good, and a contender buys him midseason. Otherwise, he's a hold. I own him in a few places, and I'm very content to just keep him.
i had a gyu who's team was going nowhere turn down a first roudne for him last year. wanted to hold him hostage.
A future late 1st rounder in a 14 team league, for a guy who if you watched that clip didn't just have a top 5 season by luck. He's got skill, and 29 is not that old. Still 3-5 good years left for a WR at that age. A late 1st is a gamble, and so is Lloyd I suppose...difference being Lloyd has a top 5 year under his belt and the late 1st has nothing.
 
Antonio Bryant part 2.A bunch of meh seasons then one outstanding anomaly thrown in. Ill sell him ASAP
:goodposting: Good comparision.
Not really, Bryants knees prevented him from having more good seasons. Are we predicting an injury to Lloyd? Because otherwise the comparison makes little sense. He can't be the next Ed Mcaffrey? 7 meh seasons followed by 4 very solid ones. Guys can put it together late...
 
Dudes: Manningham only posted good stats with Nicks and / or Steve Smith out.

Unless those two are injured again, I can't imagine how Manningham would see enough targets to outperform Lloyd, no matter how bad the Fox coaching effect is.

 
He'll never have any real value - even if he does it again, he'll be too old.
Not really. I mean you'd like him to be mid 20's but he's only turning 30 in July. I'm not exactly in lock step agreement with the Dynasty rankings on this site but it's not to wildly off the norm. Don't want to nitpick the rankings to death but as a point of conversation and to gauge the impact of Lloyd's age I think it's worth noting that 3 of the top 6 WR's on this sites rankings were are all born within a few months or more of Lloyd.
I agree with you that the age isn't that a big deal in terms of rankings or production. And I happen to like the guy and come down on the side of the believers. But in terms of trade value, the age is a factor, even w/ WR. In talking trade w/ Lloyd, his age has already come up. Right or wrong, there are plenty of owners that do not buy 30 y/o WR's for anywhere close to top dollar. Probably half the guys in most leagues won't. I'm basically saying he's not a sell high, because he's not commanding a high price. And I do not think he ever really will, no matter what he does. If you own him, enjoy him.
 
Sure if you can get value for him relative to his production last year it's probably a good idea to deal him.Problem with that and why he's NOT a Sell High in the majority of leagues is that most people in this hobby view him as a one year wonder so how do you sell that high?This is why I contend he's either a hold or a buy low. If you own him and you can't bring back anything in a trade closely resembling his performance last year I'd hold him and if he can reproduce a similar season it should wipe away one year wonder concerns and his value should be very high. If you don't own him I think now might be a good time to try and acquire him, if the price is right (cheap),from the owner who fears he was a one year wonder.
:goodposting: my thoughts exactly. It seems he isn't getting credit anywhere(including this thread).
He'll never have any real value - even if he does it again, he'll be too old. The best one can hope for is he starts the year off good, and a contender buys him midseason. Otherwise, he's a hold. I own him in a few places, and I'm very content to just keep him.
i had a gyu who's team was going nowhere turn down a first roudne for him last year. wanted to hold him hostage.
A future late 1st rounder in a 14 team league, for a guy who if you watched that clip didn't just have a top 5 season by luck. He's got skill, and 29 is not that old. Still 3-5 good years left for a WR at that age. A late 1st is a gamble, and so is Lloyd I suppose...difference being Lloyd has a top 5 year under his belt and the late 1st has nothing.
good luck
 
Sure if you can get value for him relative to his production last year it's probably a good idea to deal him.Problem with that and why he's NOT a Sell High in the majority of leagues is that most people in this hobby view him as a one year wonder so how do you sell that high?This is why I contend he's either a hold or a buy low. If you own him and you can't bring back anything in a trade closely resembling his performance last year I'd hold him and if he can reproduce a similar season it should wipe away one year wonder concerns and his value should be very high. If you don't own him I think now might be a good time to try and acquire him, if the price is right (cheap),from the owner who fears he was a one year wonder.
:goodposting: my thoughts exactly. It seems he isn't getting credit anywhere(including this thread).
He'll never have any real value - even if he does it again, he'll be too old. The best one can hope for is he starts the year off good, and a contender buys him midseason. Otherwise, he's a hold. I own him in a few places, and I'm very content to just keep him.
i had a gyu who's team was going nowhere turn down a first roudne for him last year. wanted to hold him hostage.
A future late 1st rounder in a 14 team league, for a guy who if you watched that clip didn't just have a top 5 season by luck. He's got skill, and 29 is not that old. Still 3-5 good years left for a WR at that age. A late 1st is a gamble, and so is Lloyd I suppose...difference being Lloyd has a top 5 year under his belt and the late 1st has nothing.
good luck
Thanks I suppose. Just wanted to clarify for everyone there is not some crazy owner holding Lloyd hostage. I thought we discussed your offer was close at the time and I needed just a tad more. Anyway, 1.06 or so and I'd probably be a seller of Lloyd. But as has been said, he is a hold right now because everyone is coming in offering "one year wonder" offers...and my response to those people are "if you think he's a one year wonder, then why in the world do you want him?" Hold unless you get top 20 WR value imo.
 
Sure if you can get value for him relative to his production last year it's probably a good idea to deal him.Problem with that and why he's NOT a Sell High in the majority of leagues is that most people in this hobby view him as a one year wonder so how do you sell that high?This is why I contend he's either a hold or a buy low. If you own him and you can't bring back anything in a trade closely resembling his performance last year I'd hold him and if he can reproduce a similar season it should wipe away one year wonder concerns and his value should be very high. If you don't own him I think now might be a good time to try and acquire him, if the price is right (cheap),from the owner who fears he was a one year wonder.
:goodposting: my thoughts exactly. It seems he isn't getting credit anywhere(including this thread).
He'll never have any real value - even if he does it again, he'll be too old. The best one can hope for is he starts the year off good, and a contender buys him midseason. Otherwise, he's a hold. I own him in a few places, and I'm very content to just keep him.
i had a gyu who's team was going nowhere turn down a first roudne for him last year. wanted to hold him hostage.
A future late 1st rounder in a 14 team league, for a guy who if you watched that clip didn't just have a top 5 season by luck. He's got skill, and 29 is not that old. Still 3-5 good years left for a WR at that age. A late 1st is a gamble, and so is Lloyd I suppose...difference being Lloyd has a top 5 year under his belt and the late 1st has nothing.
good luck
Thanks I suppose. Just wanted to clarify for everyone there is not some crazy owner holding Lloyd hostage. I thought we discussed your offer was close at the time and I needed just a tad more. Anyway, 1.06 or so and I'd probably be a seller of Lloyd. But as has been said, he is a hold right now because everyone is coming in offering "one year wonder" offers...and my response to those people are "if you think he's a one year wonder, then why in the world do you want him?" Hold unless you get top 20 WR value imo.
Right it takes 2 to tango.I took Mario Manningham instead for the 1.13 or whatever pick it is.
 
Go trade Lloyd for the No.1 WR is St. Louis (whoever that ends up being) and like, a ton of other awsome stuff. Because the magic wide reciever dust that Lloyd was sprinkled with last year happened to come directly from Josh "The Verticle Game Guru" McDaniels' pocket.

Not to mention that if there was ever a team with a huuuuge looming QB controversy, it's the 2011 Broncos. Fans will likely want to see Tebow. Coaches will stand behind Orton(IF he's even still there) and meanwhile the GM will be itchin' to gets the pads back on himself. Seriously, this team is more of a mess than 2010 and until some clarity comes to Denver....Stay away.

SELL! SELL! SELL! I personally wouldn't give much more than the half eaten cheese sandwich in my gymbag for Brandon Lloyd in dynasty.

 
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