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Post-Draft State of the IDP Thoughts (1 Viewer)

Jene Bramel

Footballguy
Post-Draft “State of the IDP”: Clear As Mud?

I started to put together an updated tiered ranking this week, but there were too many players falling into a nebulous “in limbo” tier for it to be meaningful. But it’s time for an update of some sort and jacobo_moses suggested a Winners and Losers approach, similar to what Bloom is doing on the offensive side.

I’m not sure there’s a whole lot of clarity in many of these situations, but I think it’s time to re-visit many of the situations that have changed since my February tiers.

WINNER Paul Posluszny – By midseason, the Bills didn’t know what they wanted to be on defense. That shouldn’t be a problem if Marcell Dareus and Kelvin Sheppard play to their scouting reports. Sheppard projects as an Andra Davis clone for IDP purposes, but the real winner here is Posluszny, who I expect to be in Buffalo regardless of whether league rules make him a free agent or not. The improvements along the line and Sheppard as depth behind Davis should keep Posluszny free to roam and rack up tackles again this year.

WINNER George Wilson // LOSER (IN LIMBO) Donte Whitner – The Bills weren’t excited about meeting Whitner’s contract demands and added a promising in-the-box safety prospect in Da’Norris Searcy. That means Wilson will almost certainly be the 2011 strong safety. Call Whitner a loser for now, but he’ll likely land on his feet somewhere. Role, surrounding cast and tackle opportunity will determine whether he’ll fit into a DB1 or DB3 tier.

LOSER Rey Maualuga – This is speculative, but I think that Maualuga’s chance of moving to the middle and earning a productive every-down IDP role decreases with every day he’s unable to work with the coaching staff. The Bengals didn't draft a linebacker capable of playing in the base defense and generally aren't big free agent players. I think that increases the odds that Dhani Jones and Brandon Johnson return.

WINNER Jabaal Sheard // (LOSER IN LIMBO) Matt Roth – Roth wasn’t a world-beater in his previous stint as a 4-3 end, but that was years ago. His upside in Cleveland’s 4-3 was considerable if the team re-signed him. It’s not yet a foregone conclusion that Roth won’t return, but it’s less likely with the addition of Sheard.

WINNER Chris Gocong – Free agency may still bring in a veteran to compete with Gocong, but the Browns had a small handful of picks and didn’t even consider guys like Greg Jones or Quan Sturdivant, both of whom lasted into the sixth round. Gocong isn’t yet locked into an every-down role, but he’s a huge favorite to stick at MLB in 2011.

WINNER Nate Irving // LOSER Joe Mays – John Fox won’t hand a job to a rookie easily, so Irving will have to be more Jon Beason than Everette Brown. But John Elway’s comments after the draft suggest that Irving was a priority target that the team sees as an every-down MLB.

LOSER Darcel McBath – The Broncos drafted two safeties in Quinton Carter and Rahim Moore. Moore is no threat to take over for veteran Brian Dawkins and assume what could be a productive SS job. Carter absolutely is. That puts McBath between a rock (Dawkins) and a hard place (Carter). Maybe he squeezes out a strong week or three, but it’s not a stretch to think his roster spot may be in danger.

LOSER (IN LIMBO) Bernard Pollard – The Texans were unlikely to re-sign Pollard before the draft. And though they didn’t address their weak secondary until the middle rounds, the addition of Brandon Harris should allow Glover Quin to move to safety and rookie Shiloh Keo could be more than a developmental/special teams project. That depth likely pushes Pollard off the roster. He’ll join Donte Whitner as a box safety looking for a new team.

WINNER Kirk Morrison – The Jags addressed multiple offensive positions early in the draft and didn’t take a single linebacker despite having perhaps the thinnest depth chart in the league at that position. Morrison, who wasn’t highly sought after as a trade target last year, isn’t likely to be a hot commodity if players like Barrett Ruud and Stephen Tulloch hit the market with him. The depth chart and the lack of a CBA may push the Jags and Morrison toward a reconciliation for 2011.

LOSER (IN LIMBO) Brandon Siler – Consider Siler more limbo than loser. Stephen Cooper and Kevin Burnett are almost certainly gone and I still think Siler re-signs with San Diego. But while Siler has been very productive when he’s played, the Chargers have always benched him if there’s another option available. Greg Manusky is back and that could change, and there’s no guarantee that Donald Butler or Jonas Mouton are ready to assume a starting role. But Butler and Mouton are players the front office and coaching staff have drafted highly. They should be considered the favorites to start if they play to their scouting reports, leaving Siler on the outside looking in – again.

LOSERS (IN LIMBO) Stephen Tulloch and Rennie Curran – The Titans are showing every indication that they want to move on from Tulloch, who’s apparently asking for more money than Tennessee wants to pay. Before the coaching change, it was Curran who looked to be next man up at MLB if Tulloch moved on. New defensive coordinator Jerry Gray wants to get bigger across the front seven and drafted ILB prospect Colin McCarthy, neither of which bode well for the 5-11, 235 pound Curran. And beat writer Jim Wyatt told me he thinks Curran is most likely a backup/special teamer. Tulloch may land on his feet in Detroit (or elsewhere), but the free agency roulette ball will have to drop into the “every-down MLB” slot for him to return to the LB1 tier in 2011.

LOSER Chris Harris – I think the Bears would like to see Major Wright win the strong safety job and Jerry Angelo had high praise for rookie FS prospect Chris Conte. That would leave Harris as the odd man out.

(FUTURE) LOSER Sean Lee – I still very much like Lee. I think he sees more playing time this year and cements himself as an all-around ILB. But there’s no denying that Bruce Carter has a chance to be a dynamic talent in the mold of Lawrence Timmons. Carter might not play more than 100 snaps this year, but he’ll likely be the every-down WILB in 2012 with Lee the better fit at SILB. Carter has better upside in that scenario, with Lee becoming less attractive.

WINNER DeAndre Levy – The Lions may target an ILB in free agency, but that may not hurt Levy much. He was tough to project as more than a LB2/3 with upside as a smallish MLB with durability questions, but the combination of Nick Fairley and Ndumakong Suh will keep both the MLB and WLB relatively free to seek and destroy. Recovered from his groin and ankle issues, Levy should be a solid every-down performer whether he plays MLB or WLB.

LOSER Phillip Dillard – I may be the only one who still had Dillard on a priority watch list, but I’ll list him here just in case someone else has held out some hope for him. Greg Jones lasted to the sixth round due to size and athleticism concerns, but he’s a better all-around linebacker prospect than Dillard. If Jonathan Goff falters, I’m betting on Jones to take his job in the long term.

LOSER (IN LIMBO) Barrett Ruud – Mason Foster could play WLB, but the Bucs unquestionably drafted him as a hedge against Ruud leaving in free agency. Ruud is probably a better run stopping ILB than the Tampa scheme allowed him to show, but he’s left in the same spot as Tulloch. He has to be an every-down ILB with good opportunity to stick in the LB1 tier.

LOSER Stylez White – White flopped in an expanded role last year and the Bucs drafted top defensive end prospects in the first and second round. With the Bucs flush with defensive tackle talent, White may not even have a role as a situational 3-technique pass rusher. Unless Da’Quan Bowers isn’t healthy enough to make the game day active roster, White has zero value.

IN LIMBO (RELATIVELY SAFE)

Mathias Kiwanuka, Charles Johnson, Ray Edwards, Jason Babin, Quintin Mikell, Dawan Landry, Bernard Pollard

IN LIMBO (AND IN LIMBO)

Thomas Davis/James Anderson, Dhani Jones, Quincy Black, Richard Marshall, Eric Weddle

IN LIMBO (AND IN TROUBLE)

Rocky McIntosh, Chinedum Ndukwe, Lawyer Milloy

 
Happy to make this a post-draft Q&A of sorts if there are situations I didn't cover above that interest anyone.

 
Jene, the quality of your IDP analysis is matched only by the great care you take to present it. Truly outstanding work.

Question: Why do you believe that Sean Lee is the better fit at SILB? I took a gamble on Carter this week thinking he could be the WILB (and therefore a potential gold mine) but did so with the understanding that there was a very good chance that Lee, based on size, would most likely end up in the play maker role. Care to elaborate?

 
With NE not addressesing the OLB/DE in there 3/4 do you see more than just hope for Cunningham?

 
Jene, the quality of your IDP analysis is matched only by the great care you take to present it. Truly outstanding work.

Question: Why do you believe that Sean Lee is the better fit at SILB? I took a gamble on Carter this week thinking he could be the WILB (and therefore a potential gold mine) but did so with the understanding that there was a very good chance that Lee, based on size, would most likely end up in the play maker role. Care to elaborate?
Thanks, alg.I don't think Lee is a prototypical 3-4 SILB, but I think a healthy Carter has more explosiveness, better range and more big play ability and would be able to convert those strengths in the box more effectively in the more protected linebacker position. I think Lee could grow into a James Farrior type SILB. If both play to their potential, both should be every-down players. Most of the post-draft buzz from the local writers strongly suggests that the Cowboys see Carter as Brooking's long term replacement. My first instinct was that Carter might fit outside, but I think that was blinded by my hopes for Sean Lee at WILB (which by extension sent my brain toward Carter as a better fit at OLB than SILB).

Great stuff Jene! :thumbup:

IN LIMBO (AND IN TROUBLE)

Rocky McIntosh

Why?
This really wasn't a draft note, but seemed worth putting in with the others at the end. McIntosh is unlikely to be re-signed by Washington. I think the free agent group is deep enough this year that he's unlikely to find an every-down job elsewhere. He looks like a part-time player/backup at best right now.
With NE not addressesing the OLB/DE in there 3/4 do you see more than just hope for Cunningham?
Absolutely. I should have Cunningham listed as a WINNER here, especially for those in big play leagues. His upside would be better with a full offseason of supervised workouts and coaching, but he's a strong third-tier rush OLB (Tier 1 = Ware, etc, Tier 2 = Spencer, etc) alongside guys like Schofield and Barwin.
 
Beautiful write up!! As a Ruud and Tulloch owner (doh!) in my dynasty league, where would be good/great places for them to land where they COULD be every down LBs? The teams that come to mind are Detroit and maybe Jacksonville. Am I missing anything? Might there be other places looking for MLB help via free agency that would keep either of these two as every down guys?

 
Beautiful write up!! As a Ruud and Tulloch owner (doh!) in my dynasty league, where would be good/great places for them to land where they COULD be every down LBs? The teams that come to mind are Detroit and maybe Jacksonville. Am I missing anything? Might there be other places looking for MLB help via free agency that would keep either of these two as every down guys?
Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Detroit would seem to be the most likely potential spots for a MLB, with Cleveland a potential long shot.
 
Post-Draft “State of the IDP”: Clear As Mud?

WINNER DeAndre Levy – The Lions may target an ILB in free agency, but that may not hurt Levy much. He was tough to project as more than a LB2/3 with upside as a smallish MLB with durability questions, but the combination of Nick Fairley and Ndumakong Suh will keep both the MLB and WLB relatively free to seek and destroy. Recovered from his groin and ankle issues, Levy should be a solid every-down performer whether he plays MLB or WLB.
Good points on the line play keeping him free. His speed sideline to sideline could be on display this year.

 
Here's a real low profile 'winner' thus far from my Raiders:

Travis Goethel. He was a 6th round pick last year, came in with a rep as a savvy LB that was well-rounded, considered unathletic, but then had a great pro day. He got a lot of good press early in the summer, there was talk that he had won the WLB job (as Tommy Howard's unexpected demotion continued). He suffered a back injury that pretty much wiped out his rookie year.

Quentin Groves got most of the work at WLB, but he is a former DE with limitations, and is just a body. The best Raider beat writer Jerry MacDonald, in recent chats, made it clear that he thinks the WLB job is Goethel's to lose. With Wimbley at SLB, then pass rushing on 3rd downs, you might be looking at a 3 down LB that is sitting on the waiver wire in most leagues.

 
Winner ?

Colin Cole - DT - seattle

veteran Cole put up solid numbers in DT leagues last year.

with no D-linemen drafted, I would think he should still get playing time.

 
IN LIMBO (RELATIVELY SAFE)

Mathias Kiwanuka, Charles Johnson, Ray Edwards, Jason Babin, Quintin Mikell, Dawan Landry, Bernard Pollard
you think his services as a starter will be in demand on the FA market? it certainly doesn't appear that he'll be in Minnesota next year...
 
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I'm curious why you have Ndukwe as a loser. Do you project Sands moving into his FS role? Are you thinking he may not be back? It seemed to me that Sands was drafted more as a long-term solution at SS than anything else and they largely ignored the rest of the secondary.

FWIW, I agree with you that the lack of picks at LB probably means the status quo will return in 2011 (which hurts Rey). I've been a big supporter of Dhani so I hope this is the case.

 
IN LIMBO (RELATIVELY SAFE)

Mathias Kiwanuka, Charles Johnson, Ray Edwards, Jason Babin, Quintin Mikell, Dawan Landry, Bernard Pollard
you think his services as a starter will be in demand on the FA market? it certainly doesn't appear that he'll be in Minnesota next year...
Hard to know in the current landscape, but if he doesn't end up back in Minnesota under 2010 rules I think he'll likely land on his feet somewhere. 4-3 ends who can rush the passer should continue to be in high demand even with half the league using the 3-4.
I'm curious why you have Ndukwe as a loser. Do you project Sands moving into his FS role? Are you thinking he may not be back? It seemed to me that Sands was drafted more as a long-term solution at SS than anything else and they largely ignored the rest of the secondary.

FWIW, I agree with you that the lack of picks at LB probably means the status quo will return in 2011 (which hurts Rey). I've been a big supporter of Dhani so I hope this is the case.
Ndukwe is coming off a significant late season knee injury and the Bengals have said Reggie Nelson is the starting FS. Lewis' comments on Sands could be taken either way, but I think most project him as a long term FS. Lewis/Zimmer never fully trusted Nduwke as an every-down safety. He's also likely a free agent if the league agrees to a CBA outside of 2010 rules.I still have a close eye on Ndukwe, but I think there's a lot more arguing against a significant role (in Cincinnati or elsewhere) than not for 2011.

 
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'Jene Bramel said:
Hard to know in the current landscape, but if he doesn't end up back in Minnesota under 2010 rules I think he'll likely land on his feet somewhere. 4-3 ends who can rush the passer should continue to be in high demand even with half the league using the 3-4.
i wouldn't doubt the demand for him is there. i've just read that Minnesota has soured on him. they also signed robison to decent contract. that they didn't grab anyone in the draft to replace edwards and robison's deal, it makes me think they are settled there.
 
'Jene Bramel said:
Hard to know in the current landscape, but if he doesn't end up back in Minnesota under 2010 rules I think he'll likely land on his feet somewhere. 4-3 ends who can rush the passer should continue to be in high demand even with half the league using the 3-4.
i wouldn't doubt the demand for him is there. i've just read that Minnesota has soured on him. they also signed robison to decent contract. that they didn't grab anyone in the draft to replace edwards and robison's deal, it makes me think they are settled there.
Wonder if Cincinnati or Cleveland would be interested. He is from Cincinnati so he may want to be closer to home if he had a choice. Then again he could be ultra greedy and take the highe$t deal offered no matter what team it is.
 
'Jene Bramel said:
Hard to know in the current landscape, but if he doesn't end up back in Minnesota under 2010 rules I think he'll likely land on his feet somewhere. 4-3 ends who can rush the passer should continue to be in high demand even with half the league using the 3-4.
i wouldn't doubt the demand for him is there. i've just read that Minnesota has soured on him. they also signed robison to decent contract. that they didn't grab anyone in the draft to replace edwards and robison's deal, it makes me think they are settled there.
The sports radio stations here in Minnesota say they're certain he's gone. He soured on the Vikings as well when they didn't offer him a new contract earlier...
 
What does everyone think of the Eagles LB situation? I was surprised to see Bradley Stewart left off the limbo list. With all the LB depth that Philly added last year and this year, are they done with Stewart?

 
What does everyone think of the Eagles LB situation? I was surprised to see Bradley Stewart left off the limbo list. With all the LB depth that Philly added last year and this year, are they done with Stewart?
It's not been confirmed by the team, but it's expected that Chaney will stay at MLB and Stewart move to SLB this year. I think, if fully healthy, Stewart is most likely to play in all packages. An every-down SLB role would make him a LB3/LB4 with some very strong games and some poor ones.
 
What about Greg Toler? He was a nice WW gem in lots of leagues for me last year, but I'm guessing Patrick Peterson makes him an after thought. Time to cut bait in dyno leagues?

 
What about Greg Toler? He was a nice WW gem in lots of leagues for me last year, but I'm guessing Patrick Peterson makes him an after thought. Time to cut bait in dyno leagues?
Great point. Toler won't have a starting job in Arizona. He could be one of the better tackling nickel corners in the league (and there are rumors he could be dealt to Philadelphia in a trade for Kevin Kolb), but he's absolutely a post-draft loser this year.
 
What about Greg Toler? He was a nice WW gem in lots of leagues for me last year, but I'm guessing Patrick Peterson makes him an after thought. Time to cut bait in dyno leagues?
Great point. Toler won't have a starting job in Arizona. He could be one of the better tackling nickel corners in the league (and there are rumors he could be dealt to Philadelphia in a trade for Kevin Kolb), but he's absolutely a post-draft loser this year.
Care to speculate on what happens if he gets traded to Philly? Do you think he'd be a full-time starter there or just a nickel corner? I suppose it all depends on if they win the Asomugha lottery....
 
What about Greg Toler? He was a nice WW gem in lots of leagues for me last year, but I'm guessing Patrick Peterson makes him an after thought. Time to cut bait in dyno leagues?
Great point. Toler won't have a starting job in Arizona. He could be one of the better tackling nickel corners in the league (and there are rumors he could be dealt to Philadelphia in a trade for Kevin Kolb), but he's absolutely a post-draft loser this year.
Care to speculate on what happens if he gets traded to Philly? Do you think he'd be a full-time starter there or just a nickel corner? I suppose it all depends on if they win the Asomugha lottery....
He'd have a shot to start opposite Samuel, since the Eagles aren't too high on Dmitri Patterson in the long term. Would depend on any FA signings and how Trevard Lindley looks, I'd guess. Curtis Marsh (this year's third round draft pick) might get a look, too, but he's probably a 2012 fit.
 
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From the Blogger

Buccaneers | Selection of Foster makes Ruud's return unlikely Mon May 23, 11:45 AM

Stephen F. Holder, from the St. Petersburg Times, reports free agent veteran LB Barrett Ruud won't even speculate on the chances of a return to Tampa Bay. The Bucs selected Washington LB Mason Foster in the 2011 NFL Draft and plan on using him as a middle linebacker. That move gives the team significant leverage in any potential negotiations with Ruud and makes his departure more likely.

Our view: Ruud has been productive in Tampa Bay, but will likely be playing elsewhere in 2011. Foster is not an elite athlete, but has high football intelligence and always finds a way to get to the football. He should be a tackling machine for the Bucs, and have an immediate impact as a rookie.

Link

 

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