Jene Bramel
Footballguy
Post-Draft “State of the IDP”: Clear As Mud?
I started to put together an updated tiered ranking this week, but there were too many players falling into a nebulous “in limbo” tier for it to be meaningful. But it’s time for an update of some sort and jacobo_moses suggested a Winners and Losers approach, similar to what Bloom is doing on the offensive side.
I’m not sure there’s a whole lot of clarity in many of these situations, but I think it’s time to re-visit many of the situations that have changed since my February tiers.
WINNER Paul Posluszny – By midseason, the Bills didn’t know what they wanted to be on defense. That shouldn’t be a problem if Marcell Dareus and Kelvin Sheppard play to their scouting reports. Sheppard projects as an Andra Davis clone for IDP purposes, but the real winner here is Posluszny, who I expect to be in Buffalo regardless of whether league rules make him a free agent or not. The improvements along the line and Sheppard as depth behind Davis should keep Posluszny free to roam and rack up tackles again this year.
WINNER George Wilson // LOSER (IN LIMBO) Donte Whitner – The Bills weren’t excited about meeting Whitner’s contract demands and added a promising in-the-box safety prospect in Da’Norris Searcy. That means Wilson will almost certainly be the 2011 strong safety. Call Whitner a loser for now, but he’ll likely land on his feet somewhere. Role, surrounding cast and tackle opportunity will determine whether he’ll fit into a DB1 or DB3 tier.
LOSER Rey Maualuga – This is speculative, but I think that Maualuga’s chance of moving to the middle and earning a productive every-down IDP role decreases with every day he’s unable to work with the coaching staff. The Bengals didn't draft a linebacker capable of playing in the base defense and generally aren't big free agent players. I think that increases the odds that Dhani Jones and Brandon Johnson return.
WINNER Jabaal Sheard // (LOSER IN LIMBO) Matt Roth – Roth wasn’t a world-beater in his previous stint as a 4-3 end, but that was years ago. His upside in Cleveland’s 4-3 was considerable if the team re-signed him. It’s not yet a foregone conclusion that Roth won’t return, but it’s less likely with the addition of Sheard.
WINNER Chris Gocong – Free agency may still bring in a veteran to compete with Gocong, but the Browns had a small handful of picks and didn’t even consider guys like Greg Jones or Quan Sturdivant, both of whom lasted into the sixth round. Gocong isn’t yet locked into an every-down role, but he’s a huge favorite to stick at MLB in 2011.
WINNER Nate Irving // LOSER Joe Mays – John Fox won’t hand a job to a rookie easily, so Irving will have to be more Jon Beason than Everette Brown. But John Elway’s comments after the draft suggest that Irving was a priority target that the team sees as an every-down MLB.
LOSER Darcel McBath – The Broncos drafted two safeties in Quinton Carter and Rahim Moore. Moore is no threat to take over for veteran Brian Dawkins and assume what could be a productive SS job. Carter absolutely is. That puts McBath between a rock (Dawkins) and a hard place (Carter). Maybe he squeezes out a strong week or three, but it’s not a stretch to think his roster spot may be in danger.
LOSER (IN LIMBO) Bernard Pollard – The Texans were unlikely to re-sign Pollard before the draft. And though they didn’t address their weak secondary until the middle rounds, the addition of Brandon Harris should allow Glover Quin to move to safety and rookie Shiloh Keo could be more than a developmental/special teams project. That depth likely pushes Pollard off the roster. He’ll join Donte Whitner as a box safety looking for a new team.
WINNER Kirk Morrison – The Jags addressed multiple offensive positions early in the draft and didn’t take a single linebacker despite having perhaps the thinnest depth chart in the league at that position. Morrison, who wasn’t highly sought after as a trade target last year, isn’t likely to be a hot commodity if players like Barrett Ruud and Stephen Tulloch hit the market with him. The depth chart and the lack of a CBA may push the Jags and Morrison toward a reconciliation for 2011.
LOSER (IN LIMBO) Brandon Siler – Consider Siler more limbo than loser. Stephen Cooper and Kevin Burnett are almost certainly gone and I still think Siler re-signs with San Diego. But while Siler has been very productive when he’s played, the Chargers have always benched him if there’s another option available. Greg Manusky is back and that could change, and there’s no guarantee that Donald Butler or Jonas Mouton are ready to assume a starting role. But Butler and Mouton are players the front office and coaching staff have drafted highly. They should be considered the favorites to start if they play to their scouting reports, leaving Siler on the outside looking in – again.
LOSERS (IN LIMBO) Stephen Tulloch and Rennie Curran – The Titans are showing every indication that they want to move on from Tulloch, who’s apparently asking for more money than Tennessee wants to pay. Before the coaching change, it was Curran who looked to be next man up at MLB if Tulloch moved on. New defensive coordinator Jerry Gray wants to get bigger across the front seven and drafted ILB prospect Colin McCarthy, neither of which bode well for the 5-11, 235 pound Curran. And beat writer Jim Wyatt told me he thinks Curran is most likely a backup/special teamer. Tulloch may land on his feet in Detroit (or elsewhere), but the free agency roulette ball will have to drop into the “every-down MLB” slot for him to return to the LB1 tier in 2011.
LOSER Chris Harris – I think the Bears would like to see Major Wright win the strong safety job and Jerry Angelo had high praise for rookie FS prospect Chris Conte. That would leave Harris as the odd man out.
(FUTURE) LOSER Sean Lee – I still very much like Lee. I think he sees more playing time this year and cements himself as an all-around ILB. But there’s no denying that Bruce Carter has a chance to be a dynamic talent in the mold of Lawrence Timmons. Carter might not play more than 100 snaps this year, but he’ll likely be the every-down WILB in 2012 with Lee the better fit at SILB. Carter has better upside in that scenario, with Lee becoming less attractive.
WINNER DeAndre Levy – The Lions may target an ILB in free agency, but that may not hurt Levy much. He was tough to project as more than a LB2/3 with upside as a smallish MLB with durability questions, but the combination of Nick Fairley and Ndumakong Suh will keep both the MLB and WLB relatively free to seek and destroy. Recovered from his groin and ankle issues, Levy should be a solid every-down performer whether he plays MLB or WLB.
LOSER Phillip Dillard – I may be the only one who still had Dillard on a priority watch list, but I’ll list him here just in case someone else has held out some hope for him. Greg Jones lasted to the sixth round due to size and athleticism concerns, but he’s a better all-around linebacker prospect than Dillard. If Jonathan Goff falters, I’m betting on Jones to take his job in the long term.
LOSER (IN LIMBO) Barrett Ruud – Mason Foster could play WLB, but the Bucs unquestionably drafted him as a hedge against Ruud leaving in free agency. Ruud is probably a better run stopping ILB than the Tampa scheme allowed him to show, but he’s left in the same spot as Tulloch. He has to be an every-down ILB with good opportunity to stick in the LB1 tier.
LOSER Stylez White – White flopped in an expanded role last year and the Bucs drafted top defensive end prospects in the first and second round. With the Bucs flush with defensive tackle talent, White may not even have a role as a situational 3-technique pass rusher. Unless Da’Quan Bowers isn’t healthy enough to make the game day active roster, White has zero value.
IN LIMBO (RELATIVELY SAFE)
Mathias Kiwanuka, Charles Johnson, Ray Edwards, Jason Babin, Quintin Mikell, Dawan Landry, Bernard Pollard
IN LIMBO (AND IN LIMBO)
Thomas Davis/James Anderson, Dhani Jones, Quincy Black, Richard Marshall, Eric Weddle
IN LIMBO (AND IN TROUBLE)
Rocky McIntosh, Chinedum Ndukwe, Lawyer Milloy
I started to put together an updated tiered ranking this week, but there were too many players falling into a nebulous “in limbo” tier for it to be meaningful. But it’s time for an update of some sort and jacobo_moses suggested a Winners and Losers approach, similar to what Bloom is doing on the offensive side.
I’m not sure there’s a whole lot of clarity in many of these situations, but I think it’s time to re-visit many of the situations that have changed since my February tiers.
WINNER Paul Posluszny – By midseason, the Bills didn’t know what they wanted to be on defense. That shouldn’t be a problem if Marcell Dareus and Kelvin Sheppard play to their scouting reports. Sheppard projects as an Andra Davis clone for IDP purposes, but the real winner here is Posluszny, who I expect to be in Buffalo regardless of whether league rules make him a free agent or not. The improvements along the line and Sheppard as depth behind Davis should keep Posluszny free to roam and rack up tackles again this year.
WINNER George Wilson // LOSER (IN LIMBO) Donte Whitner – The Bills weren’t excited about meeting Whitner’s contract demands and added a promising in-the-box safety prospect in Da’Norris Searcy. That means Wilson will almost certainly be the 2011 strong safety. Call Whitner a loser for now, but he’ll likely land on his feet somewhere. Role, surrounding cast and tackle opportunity will determine whether he’ll fit into a DB1 or DB3 tier.
LOSER Rey Maualuga – This is speculative, but I think that Maualuga’s chance of moving to the middle and earning a productive every-down IDP role decreases with every day he’s unable to work with the coaching staff. The Bengals didn't draft a linebacker capable of playing in the base defense and generally aren't big free agent players. I think that increases the odds that Dhani Jones and Brandon Johnson return.
WINNER Jabaal Sheard // (LOSER IN LIMBO) Matt Roth – Roth wasn’t a world-beater in his previous stint as a 4-3 end, but that was years ago. His upside in Cleveland’s 4-3 was considerable if the team re-signed him. It’s not yet a foregone conclusion that Roth won’t return, but it’s less likely with the addition of Sheard.
WINNER Chris Gocong – Free agency may still bring in a veteran to compete with Gocong, but the Browns had a small handful of picks and didn’t even consider guys like Greg Jones or Quan Sturdivant, both of whom lasted into the sixth round. Gocong isn’t yet locked into an every-down role, but he’s a huge favorite to stick at MLB in 2011.
WINNER Nate Irving // LOSER Joe Mays – John Fox won’t hand a job to a rookie easily, so Irving will have to be more Jon Beason than Everette Brown. But John Elway’s comments after the draft suggest that Irving was a priority target that the team sees as an every-down MLB.
LOSER Darcel McBath – The Broncos drafted two safeties in Quinton Carter and Rahim Moore. Moore is no threat to take over for veteran Brian Dawkins and assume what could be a productive SS job. Carter absolutely is. That puts McBath between a rock (Dawkins) and a hard place (Carter). Maybe he squeezes out a strong week or three, but it’s not a stretch to think his roster spot may be in danger.
LOSER (IN LIMBO) Bernard Pollard – The Texans were unlikely to re-sign Pollard before the draft. And though they didn’t address their weak secondary until the middle rounds, the addition of Brandon Harris should allow Glover Quin to move to safety and rookie Shiloh Keo could be more than a developmental/special teams project. That depth likely pushes Pollard off the roster. He’ll join Donte Whitner as a box safety looking for a new team.
WINNER Kirk Morrison – The Jags addressed multiple offensive positions early in the draft and didn’t take a single linebacker despite having perhaps the thinnest depth chart in the league at that position. Morrison, who wasn’t highly sought after as a trade target last year, isn’t likely to be a hot commodity if players like Barrett Ruud and Stephen Tulloch hit the market with him. The depth chart and the lack of a CBA may push the Jags and Morrison toward a reconciliation for 2011.
LOSER (IN LIMBO) Brandon Siler – Consider Siler more limbo than loser. Stephen Cooper and Kevin Burnett are almost certainly gone and I still think Siler re-signs with San Diego. But while Siler has been very productive when he’s played, the Chargers have always benched him if there’s another option available. Greg Manusky is back and that could change, and there’s no guarantee that Donald Butler or Jonas Mouton are ready to assume a starting role. But Butler and Mouton are players the front office and coaching staff have drafted highly. They should be considered the favorites to start if they play to their scouting reports, leaving Siler on the outside looking in – again.
LOSERS (IN LIMBO) Stephen Tulloch and Rennie Curran – The Titans are showing every indication that they want to move on from Tulloch, who’s apparently asking for more money than Tennessee wants to pay. Before the coaching change, it was Curran who looked to be next man up at MLB if Tulloch moved on. New defensive coordinator Jerry Gray wants to get bigger across the front seven and drafted ILB prospect Colin McCarthy, neither of which bode well for the 5-11, 235 pound Curran. And beat writer Jim Wyatt told me he thinks Curran is most likely a backup/special teamer. Tulloch may land on his feet in Detroit (or elsewhere), but the free agency roulette ball will have to drop into the “every-down MLB” slot for him to return to the LB1 tier in 2011.
LOSER Chris Harris – I think the Bears would like to see Major Wright win the strong safety job and Jerry Angelo had high praise for rookie FS prospect Chris Conte. That would leave Harris as the odd man out.
(FUTURE) LOSER Sean Lee – I still very much like Lee. I think he sees more playing time this year and cements himself as an all-around ILB. But there’s no denying that Bruce Carter has a chance to be a dynamic talent in the mold of Lawrence Timmons. Carter might not play more than 100 snaps this year, but he’ll likely be the every-down WILB in 2012 with Lee the better fit at SILB. Carter has better upside in that scenario, with Lee becoming less attractive.
WINNER DeAndre Levy – The Lions may target an ILB in free agency, but that may not hurt Levy much. He was tough to project as more than a LB2/3 with upside as a smallish MLB with durability questions, but the combination of Nick Fairley and Ndumakong Suh will keep both the MLB and WLB relatively free to seek and destroy. Recovered from his groin and ankle issues, Levy should be a solid every-down performer whether he plays MLB or WLB.
LOSER Phillip Dillard – I may be the only one who still had Dillard on a priority watch list, but I’ll list him here just in case someone else has held out some hope for him. Greg Jones lasted to the sixth round due to size and athleticism concerns, but he’s a better all-around linebacker prospect than Dillard. If Jonathan Goff falters, I’m betting on Jones to take his job in the long term.
LOSER (IN LIMBO) Barrett Ruud – Mason Foster could play WLB, but the Bucs unquestionably drafted him as a hedge against Ruud leaving in free agency. Ruud is probably a better run stopping ILB than the Tampa scheme allowed him to show, but he’s left in the same spot as Tulloch. He has to be an every-down ILB with good opportunity to stick in the LB1 tier.
LOSER Stylez White – White flopped in an expanded role last year and the Bucs drafted top defensive end prospects in the first and second round. With the Bucs flush with defensive tackle talent, White may not even have a role as a situational 3-technique pass rusher. Unless Da’Quan Bowers isn’t healthy enough to make the game day active roster, White has zero value.
IN LIMBO (RELATIVELY SAFE)
Mathias Kiwanuka, Charles Johnson, Ray Edwards, Jason Babin, Quintin Mikell, Dawan Landry, Bernard Pollard
IN LIMBO (AND IN LIMBO)
Thomas Davis/James Anderson, Dhani Jones, Quincy Black, Richard Marshall, Eric Weddle
IN LIMBO (AND IN TROUBLE)
Rocky McIntosh, Chinedum Ndukwe, Lawyer Milloy