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Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2011 Player Spotlight Series

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Thread Topic: Brandon Lloyd, WR, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Brandon Lloyd Player Page

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95, 165, 84, and 127. Look at those numbers and tell me how that equates to the No. 1 WR in fantasy football last year (according to FBG's WR player page) because those are the positions he ended up the past 4 years before finishing No. 1.

Still, most people believe Lloyd's year was an illusion and he has very little chance to repeat it. I am in that large camp mainly due to Denver's QB situation. Orton doesn't look like he'll be the starter in Denver this year and I believe he's a big part of the passing success in Denver last season. I expect Lloyd to be the top WR in Denver next year, just not in the NFL.

65 receptions for 1050 yards, 7 td's

 
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He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.

 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
:goodposting:
 
Those who saw him play last year are praying they can snag him as their WR2, and would consider him more of a 1B. Those who didn't barely want him as their 1st backup WR.

 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lloyd was the #1 WR in my league weeks 1-14, averaging 13.4 ppgLloyd was the #8 WR in my league weeks 15-17 last year (with Tebow starting), averaging 12.2 ppg

BTW - if you look at weeks 1-12....the weeks before Orton completely fell apart, Lloyd averaged 15.3 ppg. In other words, no matter how you cut it Lloyd slowed down in the final 5 weeks, during which he was WR17 and averaged 8.6 ppg. THAT is what worries me - the slowdown in weeks 13-17.

On the flip side, he performed quite well with Tebow at QB and still received 28 targets in 3 weeks, about the same pace he was on all season.

 
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Those who saw him play last year are praying they can snag him as their WR2, and would consider him more of a 1B. Those who didn't barely want him as their 1st backup WR.
I watched him play, i also watched Tebow play. Lloyd will not be on any of my teams. Not to say Lloyd didnt look good last year, but he has looked bad more times than good over his career and with Tebow at QB this season, im betting on another bad year.
 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lloyd was the #1 WR in my league weeks 1-14, averaging 13.4 ppgLloyd was the #8 WR in my league weeks 15-17 last year (with Tebow starting), averaging 12.2 ppg

BTW - if you look at weeks 1-12....the weeks before Orton completely fell apart, Lloyd averaged 15.3 ppg. In other words, no matter how you cut it Lloyd slowed down in the final 5 weeks, during which he was WR17 and averaged 8.6 ppg. THAT is what worries me - the slowdown in weeks 13-17.

On the flip side, he performed quite well with Tebow at QB and still received 28 targets in 3 weeks, about the same pace he was on all season.
Most people play ppr:

Lloyd weeks 1-14: 18.1 ppg

Lloyd weeks 15-17: 17.4 ppg

17.4 ppg for the year would put him at WR4 for the year.

Sure, he technically did worse with Tebow, but that drop is so minimal, esp. over such a small sample (not to mention little chemistry and practice together) that you can say his production didn't fall off at all and remained "elite" with Tebow at the helm. I wouldn't use that as evidence that he'll keep it up but I certainly wouldn't say he fell off with Tebow at QB. He pretty much did exactly what he had been doing all along.

Game log with Tebow:

4/79/1

5/111

5/73/1

I'll take that going forward all day.

 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lloyd was the #1 WR in my league weeks 1-14, averaging 13.4 ppgLloyd was the #8 WR in my league weeks 15-17 last year (with Tebow starting), averaging 12.2 ppg

BTW - if you look at weeks 1-12....the weeks before Orton completely fell apart, Lloyd averaged 15.3 ppg. In other words, no matter how you cut it Lloyd slowed down in the final 5 weeks, during which he was WR17 and averaged 8.6 ppg. THAT is what worries me - the slowdown in weeks 13-17.

On the flip side, he performed quite well with Tebow at QB and still received 28 targets in 3 weeks, about the same pace he was on all season.
Most people play ppr:

Lloyd weeks 1-14: 18.1 ppg

Lloyd weeks 15-17: 17.4 ppg

17.4 ppg for the year would put him at WR4 for the year.

Sure, he technically did worse with Tebow, but that drop is so minimal, esp. over such a small sample (not to mention little chemistry and practice together) that you can say his production didn't fall off at all and remained "elite" with Tebow at the helm. I wouldn't use that as evidence that he'll keep it up but I certainly wouldn't say he fell off with Tebow at QB. He pretty much did exactly what he had been doing all along.

Game log with Tebow:

4/79/1

5/111

5/73/1

I'll take that going forward all day.
:shrug: I don't play PPR (and many others don't either). Thus, those stats are interesting but not terribly relevant to me.
 
Something in my gut tells me to stay away from Brandon Lloyd this year........he had a career year and likely won't repeat it. Fox likes to run the ball, and will likely bring in another RB to share the load with Moreno. Lloyd averaged 18.8 YPC, which is unbelievable. He was on the same page with Orton on deep balls all of last year. And now Tebow is likely going to be the QB.......

But Lloyd's situation isn't that bad.....DEN is likely going to have to throw the ball to win games like last year, and opposing defenses will make Tebow try and beat them through the air.

Quite a dilemma. So my projection is a good one but much less than 2010. He's a decent #2WR, but likely someone will overpay for him looking for last year's stats.

70 rec, 1050 yds, 7 TD

 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lloyd was the #1 WR in my league weeks 1-14, averaging 13.4 ppgLloyd was the #8 WR in my league weeks 15-17 last year (with Tebow starting), averaging 12.2 ppg

BTW - if you look at weeks 1-12....the weeks before Orton completely fell apart, Lloyd averaged 15.3 ppg. In other words, no matter how you cut it Lloyd slowed down in the final 5 weeks, during which he was WR17 and averaged 8.6 ppg. THAT is what worries me - the slowdown in weeks 13-17.

On the flip side, he performed quite well with Tebow at QB and still received 28 targets in 3 weeks, about the same pace he was on all season.
Most people play ppr:

Lloyd weeks 1-14: 18.1 ppg

Lloyd weeks 15-17: 17.4 ppg

17.4 ppg for the year would put him at WR4 for the year.

Sure, he technically did worse with Tebow, but that drop is so minimal, esp. over such a small sample (not to mention little chemistry and practice together) that you can say his production didn't fall off at all and remained "elite" with Tebow at the helm. I wouldn't use that as evidence that he'll keep it up but I certainly wouldn't say he fell off with Tebow at QB. He pretty much did exactly what he had been doing all along.

Game log with Tebow:

4/79/1

5/111

5/73/1

I'll take that going forward all day.
:shrug: I don't play PPR (and many others don't either). Thus, those stats are interesting but not terribly relevant to me.
That's why I included the game logs. He scored in 2 of the 3 games and had 70+ yds in all 3 games. That's not terribly relevant?
 
Something in my gut tells me to stay away from Brandon Lloyd this year........he had a career year and likely won't repeat it. Fox likes to run the ball, and will likely bring in another RB to share the load with Moreno. Lloyd averaged 18.8 YPC, which is unbelievable. He was on the same page with Orton on deep balls all of last year. And now Tebow is likely going to be the QB.......But Lloyd's situation isn't that bad.....DEN is likely going to have to throw the ball to win games like last year, and opposing defenses will make Tebow try and beat them through the air.Quite a dilemma. So my projection is a good one but much less than 2010. He's a decent #2WR, but likely someone will overpay for him looking for last year's stats.70 rec, 1050 yds, 7 TD
I agree with you. One thing that struck me was that in the games Lloyd had a TD, Denver gave up 27, 31, 24, 29, 35, 36, 39 and 33 points. Also, Denver was 1-7 when Lloyd scored and 3-5 when he didn't. Might not be much of a difference, but it was almost like he played the entire season in garbage time. Great for Lloyd owners in 2010.Denver's D was horrible last year and while they may not be that great in 2011, does anyone think they will be the worst scoring defense in the NFL by 2+ ppg? Remember how Houston's pass defense was so bad that it was one of if not the worst passing defenses ever in NFL history? Well, they gave up 44 less points than Denver. Denver's rush offense was #26 and had the 3rd most fumbles. Also, only 2 teams (Arizona and Washington) ran the ball substantially less than Denver.Lloyd may stay the #1 WR in Denver, but last year was a perfect storm for him. Based on his history and everything else, I think we saw his career year and while he will still be relevant to FF, I could easily see him outside the top 10.ETA: Completely out of left field, but he is very similar IMHO to Peyton Hillis. I think both of them had career years because of their situations. Sure, they have talent as do most starters in the NFL, but I don't think they are Rice and LT, where we just saw the beginning of stellar careers. I think they both had perfect storms of opportunity and wouldn't want to own them (at their expected ADPs) as they are extremely risky IMHO.
 
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Something in my gut tells me to stay away from Brandon Lloyd this year........he had a career year and likely won't repeat it. Fox likes to run the ball, and will likely bring in another RB to share the load with Moreno. Lloyd averaged 18.8 YPC, which is unbelievable. He was on the same page with Orton on deep balls all of last year. And now Tebow is likely going to be the QB.......

But Lloyd's situation isn't that bad.....DEN is likely going to have to throw the ball to win games like last year, and opposing defenses will make Tebow try and beat them through the air.

Quite a dilemma. So my projection is a good one but much less than 2010. He's a decent #2WR, but likely someone will overpay for him looking for last year's stats.

70 rec, 1050 yds, 7 TD
I agree with you. One thing that struck me was that in the games Lloyd had a TD, Denver gave up 27, 31, 24, 29, 35, 36, 39 and 33 points. Also, Denver was 1-7 when Lloyd scored and 3-5 when he didn't. Might not be much of a difference, but it was almost like he played the entire season in garbage time. Great for Lloyd owners in 2010.Denver's D was horrible last year and while they may not be that great in 2011, does anyone think they will be the worst scoring defense in the NFL by 2+ ppg? Remember how Houston's pass defense was so bad that it was one of if not the worst passing defenses ever in NFL history? Well, they gave up 44 less points than Denver. Denver's rush offense was #26 and had the 3rd most fumbles. Also, only 2 teams (Arizona and Washington) ran the ball substantially less than Denver.

Lloyd may stay the #1 WR in Denver, but last year was a perfect storm for him. Based on his history and everything else, I think we saw his career year and while he will still be relevant to FF, I could easily see him outside the top 10.

ETA: Completely out of left field, but he is very similar IMHO to Peyton Hillis. I think both of them had career years because of their situations. Sure, they have talent as do most starters in the NFL, but I don't think they are Rice and LT, where we just saw the beginning of stellar careers. I think they both had perfect storms of opportunity and wouldn't want to own them (at their expected ADPs) as they are extremely risky IMHO.
I agree with you here; I feel like I've fallen for this one before with the likes of Antonio Bryant in Tampa a few years ago or numerous one season wonders at RB. Another thing neither Lloyd nor Hillis has is a returning HC - at the price you have to pay for either, I can't stomach it.

 
Something in my gut tells me to stay away from Brandon Lloyd this year........he had a career year and likely won't repeat it. Fox likes to run the ball, and will likely bring in another RB to share the load with Moreno. Lloyd averaged 18.8 YPC, which is unbelievable. He was on the same page with Orton on deep balls all of last year. And now Tebow is likely going to be the QB.......

But Lloyd's situation isn't that bad.....DEN is likely going to have to throw the ball to win games like last year, and opposing defenses will make Tebow try and beat them through the air.

Quite a dilemma. So my projection is a good one but much less than 2010. He's a decent #2WR, but likely someone will overpay for him looking for last year's stats.

70 rec, 1050 yds, 7 TD
I agree with you. One thing that struck me was that in the games Lloyd had a TD, Denver gave up 27, 31, 24, 29, 35, 36, 39 and 33 points. Also, Denver was 1-7 when Lloyd scored and 3-5 when he didn't. Might not be much of a difference, but it was almost like he played the entire season in garbage time. Great for Lloyd owners in 2010.Denver's D was horrible last year and while they may not be that great in 2011, does anyone think they will be the worst scoring defense in the NFL by 2+ ppg? Remember how Houston's pass defense was so bad that it was one of if not the worst passing defenses ever in NFL history? Well, they gave up 44 less points than Denver. Denver's rush offense was #26 and had the 3rd most fumbles. Also, only 2 teams (Arizona and Washington) ran the ball substantially less than Denver.

Lloyd may stay the #1 WR in Denver, but last year was a perfect storm for him. Based on his history and everything else, I think we saw his career year and while he will still be relevant to FF, I could easily see him outside the top 10.

ETA: Completely out of left field, but he is very similar IMHO to Peyton Hillis. I think both of them had career years because of their situations. Sure, they have talent as do most starters in the NFL, but I don't think they are Rice and LT, where we just saw the beginning of stellar careers. I think they both had perfect storms of opportunity and wouldn't want to own them (at their expected ADPs) as they are extremely risky IMHO.
I agree with you here; I feel like I've fallen for this one before with the likes of Antonio Bryant in Tampa a few years ago or numerous one season wonders at RB. Another thing neither Lloyd nor Hillis has is a returning HC - at the price you have to pay for either, I can't stomach it.
The HC change would be an interesting thing to research. There is a reason the HCs changed, the previous ones didn't do a good job. This means what led to Lloyd and Hillis' success may not have been in the best interest of the team and/or what the new HC wants to do. I think that is even moreso in Lloyd's case. The two things I would say the new Denver HC would want to change is the defense's inability to stop the other team and the lack of a running game. Neither of those seems conducive to Lloyd repeating or improving on last year. Hillis on the other hand wasn't "part of the problem" so to speak, but I do think that he can't take that burden of % of touches and DCs will make stopping Hillis gameplan 1, 2 and 3.
 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lloyd was the #1 WR in my league weeks 1-14, averaging 13.4 ppgLloyd was the #8 WR in my league weeks 15-17 last year (with Tebow starting), averaging 12.2 ppg

BTW - if you look at weeks 1-12....the weeks before Orton completely fell apart, Lloyd averaged 15.3 ppg. In other words, no matter how you cut it Lloyd slowed down in the final 5 weeks, during which he was WR17 and averaged 8.6 ppg. THAT is what worries me - the slowdown in weeks 13-17.

On the flip side, he performed quite well with Tebow at QB and still received 28 targets in 3 weeks, about the same pace he was on all season.
Yeah, those numbers he put up with Tebow only project out to 1400/11 for a season. Who would want that trash on their team?And that's also considering that Denver rolled out the most ultra uber conservative gameplan in the history of football in the first of those three games to ease Tebow in.

Tebow is the perfect QB for Lloyd. One of Lloyd's greatest strengths is his ability to go up and get the ball and one of Tebow's greatest strengths is that he's willing to give his WRs a chance to make a play when they have 1 on 1 coverage downfield even if they're not "open".

 
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'FreeBaGeL said:
'Alex P Keaton said:
'Jason Wood said:
'karl722 said:
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lloyd was the #1 WR in my league weeks 1-14, averaging 13.4 ppgLloyd was the #8 WR in my league weeks 15-17 last year (with Tebow starting), averaging 12.2 ppg

BTW - if you look at weeks 1-12....the weeks before Orton completely fell apart, Lloyd averaged 15.3 ppg. In other words, no matter how you cut it Lloyd slowed down in the final 5 weeks, during which he was WR17 and averaged 8.6 ppg. THAT is what worries me - the slowdown in weeks 13-17.

On the flip side, he performed quite well with Tebow at QB and still received 28 targets in 3 weeks, about the same pace he was on all season.
Yeah, those numbers he put up with Tebow only project out to 1400/11 for a season. Who would want that trash on their team?And that's also considering that Denver rolled out the most ultra uber conservative gameplan in the history of football in the first of those three games to ease Tebow in.

Tebow is the perfect QB for Lloyd. One of Lloyd's greatest strengths is his ability to go up and get the ball and one of Tebow's greatest strengths is that he's willing to give his WRs a chance to make a play when they have 1 on 1 coverage downfield even if they're not "open".
It's almost like you didn't read my actual post before responding.
 
Lloyd overachieved last year and likely wont see another year like 2010 again.

Lloyd is the most dependable WR on the team. That being said the offense isn't well defined with a new head coach, but same OC.

There isn't much competition for targets which is probably the most positive factor when putting together Lloyd's projected numbers.

.

It remains to be seen if Tebow will succeed and/or if Orton will be on the team, but I suspect Tebow will be given every chance to succeed which could mean some a bumpy road for Lloyd's numbers.

I think it's safe to say we can expect a considerable drop in YPC as well as TDs.

73 receptions

1080 yards

6 TDs

 
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'fightingillini said:
Quite a dilemma. So my projection is a good one but much less than 2010. He's a decent #2WR, but likely someone will overpay for him looking for last year's stats.
After reading the replies in this thread the bolded doesn't appear to be the case. For what it's worth he's being drafted around WR18 in mocks that are pretty pointless. He'd be a valuable commodity at that spot. Drafters are definitely expecting Lloyd to regress significantly.
 
'fightingillini said:
Quite a dilemma. So my projection is a good one but much less than 2010. He's a decent #2WR, but likely someone will overpay for him looking for last year's stats.
After reading the replies in this thread the bolded doesn't appear to be the case. For what it's worth he's being drafted around WR18 in mocks that are pretty pointless. He'd be a valuable commodity at that spot. Drafters are definitely expecting Lloyd to regress significantly.
That's true.....my first thought when a guy is coming off of a career year is to think "somone will overpay for him due to last year's stats". You can think Lloyd is going to regress and still think he's a top 10WR. I would expect seasoned FFers on this board to be in agreement that Lloyd will significantly regress. You can't expect a 18.8 YPC, in fact, only a handful of WRs in the last 10 years have had that average or higher given at least 50 catches. Generally, I think that most mocks done around now are done by hardcore FF guys that clearly see the big picture, so it's nice infomation to see that Lloyd's perceived value is around WR18. IMO, WR18 is probably a reasonable spot for Lloyd. I don't see the upside in Lloyd this year if Tebow is the QB.

All it takes is one misinformed drafter in your league to take Lloyd too high. He will still be overvalued in many leagues IMO.

 
I guess the point is Lloyd will be expected to regress, which could make his ADP fall into a range where he'll represent some value. Normally WRs that finish #1 overall in many formats don't last until WR18 the next season. No owner wants to be the guy who drafts for last year's numbers on a player that's never done it before.

It's also been pointed out that Lloyd managed some pretty solid games with Tim Tebow at QB. Say what you want about Tebow, but no one will outwork him, and he'll be prepared to play. Of course, if he's not the QB, then we can assume Kyle Orton is, and we know what Lloyd did with Orton under center.

Overall, the Broncos offense could be pretty potent in 2011. There's quite a bit of offensive talent in Denver, not including the possible addition of DeAngelo Williams.

I'd leave Lloyd at the same number of catches, 77, because I don't think his targets will change much, but we can expect a regression in the yards per catch closer to his career average of 15.8. We'll call it 15 even.

77 receptions, 1,155 yards, 8 TDs. That would make him right around WR10 most years. If that ADP stays where it is Brandon Lloyd should represent quite a bit of value this season.

 
I think Lloyd benefitted from a perfect storm in Denver last season. Different HC (who will insist on being more conservative with the ball), and it did not matter who his OC was (Henning or Davidson in CAR), they ran the puppy every chance they had. The only saving grace in the passing game will be for WR1. Now that guy could be Lloyd, but they also burned a pick on Demaryius Thomas (who is no slouch), and of course, a guy like Gaffney or Royal is always sneaking around. From WR2-WR4, Foxy never had a corps like this (you could make the arguement after Mush left for CHI, their WR2 was never as good as Denver's current WR4, so who nows how things will split out, but the assumption that the OC is still there so things will run as status quo is just wrong...it may, but knowing Fox, he is going to want to pound the ball and pass when needed.

I just don't see someone like Lloyd will be to stay at this level with all the changes (silly to say "repeat" since he was the #1 FF last year). You could gamble he will be Fox' "Steve Smith", but the talk (and action, though poorly executed) was to get more WRs involved. Sure Gaffney had a good year too as a WR2 on the team, but you are not looking at a McDaniels as a coach who aims to win games 30-27...you are looking at a guy who wants to win "20-14" type games in Fox.

 
I guess the point is Lloyd will be expected to regress, which could make his ADP fall into a range where he'll represent some value. Normally WRs that finish #1 overall in many formats don't last until WR18 the next season. No owner wants to be the guy who drafts for last year's numbers on a player that's never done it before.It's also been pointed out that Lloyd managed some pretty solid games with Tim Tebow at QB. Say what you want about Tebow, but no one will outwork him, and he'll be prepared to play. Of course, if he's not the QB, then we can assume Kyle Orton is, and we know what Lloyd did with Orton under center.Overall, the Broncos offense could be pretty potent in 2011. There's quite a bit of offensive talent in Denver, not including the possible addition of DeAngelo Williams.I'd leave Lloyd at the same number of catches, 77, because I don't think his targets will change much, but we can expect a regression in the yards per catch closer to his career average of 15.8. We'll call it 15 even.77 receptions, 1,155 yards, 8 TDs. That would make him right around WR10 most years. If that ADP stays where it is Brandon Lloyd should represent quite a bit of value this season.
This is kind of my line of thinking as well. I watched a couple of those Tebow games and some of the catches Lloyd made were just outstanding plays. I think he'll still be the clear #1 in Denver and Tebow will lean on him a lot and there will be a lot of plays where he'll just throw it up and let Lloyd try to make a play on it. The one thing that gives me pause is the sheer number of shootouts Denver was in last year. However, their D is still going to be bad and I think the AFC West will just see some shootouts in general again.Overall, I think Lloyd is a bargain at his current ADP as I think numbers like 80, 1200, 8 TDs seem very doable.
 
'Grahamburn said:
I guess the point is Lloyd will be expected to regress, which could make his ADP fall into a range where he'll represent some value. Normally WRs that finish #1 overall in many formats don't last until WR18 the next season. No owner wants to be the guy who drafts for last year's numbers on a player that's never done it before.It's also been pointed out that Lloyd managed some pretty solid games with Tim Tebow at QB. Say what you want about Tebow, but no one will outwork him, and he'll be prepared to play. Of course, if he's not the QB, then we can assume Kyle Orton is, and we know what Lloyd did with Orton under center.Overall, the Broncos offense could be pretty potent in 2011. There's quite a bit of offensive talent in Denver, not including the possible addition of DeAngelo Williams.I'd leave Lloyd at the same number of catches, 77, because I don't think his targets will change much, but we can expect a regression in the yards per catch closer to his career average of 15.8. We'll call it 15 even.77 receptions, 1,155 yards, 8 TDs. That would make him right around WR10 most years. If that ADP stays where it is Brandon Lloyd should represent quite a bit of value this season.
Fair enough, I understand your position.Couple of comments:1) 3 games with Tebow doesn't provide enough of a trend IMO.2) 153 targets is a LOT. Can't see it going up, but I wouldn't be surprised if his targets drop to the 125-130 range.Don't get me wrong....our projections aren't that far off. I am projecting 15YPC as well. I see him as a decent WR2. I just think his bust potential is high.
 
Even with all the negative comments in here the lowest projection for Lloyd is 140 fantasy points in a standard scoring format, which would likely finish the season around WR20. It's sounding like he'll be drafted around that spot. I don't mind gambling on a guy that I know can put up WR1 numbers when I can draft him as my WR 2/3.

Talking ADP seems pretty arbitrary at the moment, but Lloyd is a guy I'll likely have my eyes on if things stay the way they are right now.

 
Here is a guy that in his 8th year doubles his totals from his best year (nicely fitting that was his 3rd year). Career year to say the least. Although if I am reading the stats correctly, very few YAC. New QB potentially, run oriented offense, WR notorius for making the big play but not the easy one.... Did hea learn to be a complete WR? Maybe. I am not sold.

57 rec at 15.8 ypc (career ave) = 900 yards. 8 TDs

 
I'm not sold either...he's probably one of the hardest guys to predict. He may go from anywhere to 3rd round to the 10th round depending on the draft.

770 yds, 6tds

 
Out of curiosity, are there any comps for this guy? Any WR who had a major breakout at the age of 29?

Has there ever been a WR who didn't break out til 29 and then went on to be very productive late in his career?

I'm intrigued by this guy in dynasty but also very weary of his bust potential.

 
Out of curiosity, are there any comps for this guy? Any WR who had a major breakout at the age of 29?

Has there ever been a WR who didn't break out til 29 and then went on to be very productive late in his career?

I'm intrigued by this guy in dynasty but also very weary of his bust potential.
I just looked a bit at PFR for age 28-30 breakouts and I found Drew Hill & Qadry Ismail at 29, Tony Martin & Troy Brown gradually breaking out at 29-30, and Joe Horn at 28. Horn kept it up for another 4 years, Hill for 6 more (at a slightly lower level), and Martin had 1 even bigger year and then 3 somewhat worse ones. Ismail & Brown only had one more decent to good season each (Ismail's after an off year), but they weren't as good to begin with (fantasy WR 15 & 16 in their breakout years).
 
With the loss of Mcdaniels and Tebow as the starter i just cant see Lloyd coming close to his numbers from last season. He is a very risky pick, but might be worth taking as a #3 WR. 1200 yards and 10 TD's is a possibilty, but so is 600 yards and 3 TD's. Ill go somewhere in the middle.

60 rec. 915 yards, 6 TD's

 
Just for ease of review I wanted to post Brandon Lloyd's career stats.

03 - 16 gms 27 target 14 catches 51.9% 212 yds 15.1 ypc and 2 TDs

04 - 13 gms 87 target 43 catches 49.4% 565 yds 13.1 ypc and 6 TDs

05 - 16 gms 109 target 48 catches 44.0% 733 yds 15.3 ypc and 5 TDs

06 - 15 gms 57 target 23 catches 40.3% 365 yds 15.9 ypc and 0 TDs

07 - 8 gms 11 target 2 catches 18.2% 14 yds 7.0 ypc and 0 TDs

08 - 11 gms 50 target 26 catches 52.0% 364 yds 14.0 ypc and 2 TDs

09 - 2 gms 18 target 8 catches 44.4% 117 yds 14.6 ypc and 0 TDs

10 - 16 gms 153 target 77 catches 50.3% 1448 yds 18.8 ypc and 11 TDs

2010 was not just a career year, it was more like a fairy tale come true season. Fast forward to 2011 and there is a new coach in town. The Broncos held onto their OC, so there is a likelihood that the offensive system will remain as it. But rumors are strong that Orton will be traded and the team will be led by Tim Tebow. I am a huge SEC fan and Tim Tebow was a fierce competitor and an able college QB. However, I just can't imagine him being effective as an everyday starter at QB. I think that his passing abilities will be tested and his success will be limited. Tebow essentially premiered in the last three games of the 2010 season and and completed 40 of 81 passes for 49.4% and 651 yards or 8.03 ypa. I think that he could improve some on the completion percentage, but no way will he come close to the 8.0 ypa.

I also think that the RBs and TEs will be more involved in 2011 and the WRs will be featured less. I really see a huge drop off for Lloyd.

Brandon Lloyd 16 gms 110 targets 56 catches 50.9% 728 yds 13.0 ypc and 4 TDs

The you add in the history of Brandon Lloyd and I just can't imagine him being successful

 
You guys can throw all the stats out that you want. I just don't trust it. I'm not buying it. I'll pass and let someone else take the gamble.

 
I picked up Lloyd in week 4 or so last year after Greg Cosell was effusive about how well he was playing. He thought the light went on - he was living up to his potential . He was right, and I am going to believe that Lloyd has the talent be a FF WR1.

IIRC, Fox produced two #1 FF WRs (Smith and Muhummad). That leads me to believe that his situation is not as bad as we may think. On the other hand, you could argue that Muhummad tailed of significantly after a perfect storm season and the same will happen to Lloyd.

I don't have a projection, but I believe that Lloyd is likely to be undervalued and I'll try to acquire him. Of course, you never know when 1 owner in your league drafts based on last year's stats - if so, Lloyd may be extremely over-valued in certain leagues.

 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lets hope your correct.. good post.. as it is.. but I cant even get Michael Crabtree for B lloyd in my .5 PPR dynasty..
 
Game log with Tebow:4/79/15/1115/73/1I'll take that going forward all day.
Agreed the Tebow as a negative is completely wacky. In fact, Lloyd seems to be a big proponent of Tebow's.FWIW, that production on an average basis next year would put him over 1,500 yds. ;)
 
Projecting Denver's offense is one of the biggest challenges this off-season. But let's give it a try anyway and assume John Fox implements something close to what he did in Carolina and ends up with similar (lack of) success.

Based on that, you are looking at around 470-480 targets to go around. The TEs will get about 90-100 of those and another 80-90 will go to the RBs. So let's say roughly 480-100-80=300 targets go to WRs.

For next season, you have Lloyd, Gaffney, Royal, Decker as the main guys. (I am ignoring Demaryius because of the injury.) From what we know about Fox, he likes having a main guy. In the past, Steve Smith owned 25-30% of the targets. So let's conservatively give Lloyd 25% of the throws (120 targets) or 7.5 targets per game.

The catch percentage is REALLY hard to predict, because you have to work with extrapolations either from a McDaniels offense or from Lloyd's checkered past. Furthermore, there is only a limited sample of games with Tebow starting. So, for lack of a better approach, let's assume the catch rate bumps up very slightly to a modest 54% or 4 receptions per game. At 15 yards a pop: 64 receptions for 960 yards. I won't even bother trying to guess the TD count. I will arbitrarily peg it at 8.

So 64/960/8 is what I'd expect for 16 games, but I am keeping an open mind for Fox to throw a bit more than at Carolina (say, 500 pass attempts), which would get Lloyd closer to 72/1080/8.

There is one last aspect to consider - Denver will suck next season. Around Week 10, we should start seeing the players for the future to take an increasing number of snaps and the players of the past (aka, Lloyd) fade away. Hence, don't count on Lloyd for the playoffs. Another implication is that it is very possible to get some monster stats from Lloyd early on as the Broncos chase games. My advice if you own Lloyd is to cash in as soon as he has 1-2 monster performances.

 
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John Fox likes to run the ball and he will bring someone in to help Moreno out. So because of this I'm expecting Brandon Lloyd's numbers to be down some. Brandon Lloyd won't finish around number wr 2 this year like he did last year but I expect him to finish between WR 10-15.

71 recpetions

1150 yards

9 TD's

 
I can't project this guy. I think he's shaping up to be one of the bigger boom or bust picks. There will be some owners that truly believe, and may take him too early. However, I also think there could be a draft where all of the owners are as skeptical as many people are, and he falls to pretty good value. Lloyd throughout his career has shown the ability to have great body control and make phenomenal catches, but last year was just ridiculous. His ADP is 39 but ESPN at least gives him slightly more value, because he ranked 46th there ( one of my drafts is done on ESPN, so it's more value to me at least.) If his stock is in rounds 4-5, I'm going to pass because even if he IS this good, I don't think he's going to burn me by passing on him and Vincent Jackson or Desean Jackson who's ADP's are right behind Lloyd's. If Lloyd does slip into the 7th round tho, I would take a shot.

 
John Fox likes to run the ball and he will bring someone in to help Moreno out. So because of this I'm expecting Brandon Lloyd's numbers to be down some. Brandon Lloyd won't finish around number wr 2 this year like he did last year but I expect him to finish between WR 10-15.71 recpetions1150 yards9 TD's
I agree, with the one caveat that Orton be the starting QB. If he stays in Denver (and he should--I just can't see Tebow being the answer), Lloyd ought to do fine. He'll be a value grab no doubt.
 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lets hope your correct.. good post.. as it is.. but I cant even get Michael Crabtree for B lloyd in my .5 PPR dynasty..
Lloyd is 29. That's why. His value is in redrafts. In dynasties that were to draft this year, he might be a 10th rounder.
 
Just grabbed him at 7.11 in a PPR dynasty start up as WR34, and as my 4th WR behind AJ, V-Jax, Marshall.. Pretty happy with that. Seems he's a great one to watch in drafts if he's available 6-7th round.

I'm expecting

70/1200/7

 
Just grabbed him at 7.11 in a PPR dynasty start up as WR34, and as my 4th WR behind AJ, V-Jax, Marshall.. Pretty happy with that. Seems he's a great one to watch in drafts if he's available 6-7th round.I'm expecting70/1200/7
Nice snag and a very reasonable expectation. He's pretty dang good. Waldman did a great writeup on him a while back. He's the real deal and I'm glad he's my WR3 in dynasty. He could be Jimmy Smith 2.0
 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lloyd was the #1 WR in my league weeks 1-14, averaging 13.4 ppgLloyd was the #8 WR in my league weeks 15-17 last year (with Tebow starting), averaging 12.2 ppg

BTW - if you look at weeks 1-12....the weeks before Orton completely fell apart, Lloyd averaged 15.3 ppg. In other words, no matter how you cut it Lloyd slowed down in the final 5 weeks, during which he was WR17 and averaged 8.6 ppg. THAT is what worries me - the slowdown in weeks 13-17.

On the flip side, he performed quite well with Tebow at QB and still received 28 targets in 3 weeks, about the same pace he was on all season.
All of what you said is true but Lloyd is one of the biggest mysteries going into 2011. And he is a gamble compared to so many others so why not let one of the other 11 owners take a chance on him? Lloyd was traded for the 1.10 in a recent rookie draft in my dynasty league. Don't know if that shows true value or the high side. Rookie QB/RB/WR/TE IMO they are all are subpar classes.this year.
 
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He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lloyd was the #1 WR in my league weeks 1-14, averaging 13.4 ppgLloyd was the #8 WR in my league weeks 15-17 last year (with Tebow starting), averaging 12.2 ppg

BTW - if you look at weeks 1-12....the weeks before Orton completely fell apart, Lloyd averaged 15.3 ppg. In other words, no matter how you cut it Lloyd slowed down in the final 5 weeks, during which he was WR17 and averaged 8.6 ppg. THAT is what worries me - the slowdown in weeks 13-17.

On the flip side, he performed quite well with Tebow at QB and still received 28 targets in 3 weeks, about the same pace he was on all season.
Most people play ppr:

Lloyd weeks 1-14: 18.1 ppg

Lloyd weeks 15-17: 17.4 ppg

17.4 ppg for the year would put him at WR4 for the year.

Sure, he technically did worse with Tebow, but that drop is so minimal, esp. over such a small sample (not to mention little chemistry and practice together) that you can say his production didn't fall off at all and remained "elite" with Tebow at the helm. I wouldn't use that as evidence that he'll keep it up but I certainly wouldn't say he fell off with Tebow at QB. He pretty much did exactly what he had been doing all along.

Game log with Tebow:

4/79/1

5/111

5/73/1

I'll take that going forward all day.
It's unwise to assume Lloyd is going to perform like he did last year. John Fox has not exactly produced massive points for WRs not named Steve Smith and even he has had issues going back the past few seasons A l east 14-15 WRs go off the board beore Lloyd and there has to be 10 others around there that many would rather have over Lloyd. They just can't all be good and they can't all perform at a high level all the time.Better choices according to the recent WR rankngs at FBG. 17-Mike Williams(TB), 21-Jeremy Maclin and 25-Santana Moss, That's actually not a bad 1-2-3 punch rght there.

 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lloyd was the #1 WR in my league weeks 1-14, averaging 13.4 ppgLloyd was the #8 WR in my league weeks 15-17 last year (with Tebow starting), averaging 12.2 ppg

BTW - if you look at weeks 1-12....the weeks before Orton completely fell apart, Lloyd averaged 15.3 ppg. In other words, no matter how you cut it Lloyd slowed down in the final 5 weeks, during which he was WR17 and averaged 8.6 ppg. THAT is what worries me - the slowdown in weeks 13-17.

On the flip side, he performed quite well with Tebow at QB and still received 28 targets in 3 weeks, about the same pace he was on all season.
Most people play ppr:

Lloyd weeks 1-14: 18.1 ppg

Lloyd weeks 15-17: 17.4 ppg

17.4 ppg for the year would put him at WR4 for the year.

Sure, he technically did worse with Tebow, but that drop is so minimal, esp. over such a small sample (not to mention little chemistry and practice together) that you can say his production didn't fall off at all and remained "elite" with Tebow at the helm. I wouldn't use that as evidence that he'll keep it up but I certainly wouldn't say he fell off with Tebow at QB. He pretty much did exactly what he had been doing all along.

Game log with Tebow:

4/79/1

5/111

5/73/1

I'll take that going forward all day.
It's unwise to assume Lloyd is going to perform like he did last year. John Fox has not exactly produced massive points for WRs not named Steve Smith and even he has had issues going back the past few seasons A l east 14-15 WRs go off the board beore Lloyd and there has to be 10 others around there that many would rather have over Lloyd. They just can't all be good and they can't all perform at a high level all the time.Better choices according to the recent WR rankngs at FBG. 17-Mike Williams(TB), 21-Jeremy Maclin and 25-Santana Moss, That's actually not a bad 1-2-3 punch rght there.
Actually, Fox has. There was Muhammad as well. In fact, the #1 WR has often thrived under Fox except when they had complete garbage at QB. If Lloyd remains #1 for this year, he should do quite well. It's the rest of the guys that will suffer.
 
I'm a believer. He made some ridiculous acrobatic catches last season and I don't see why he wouldn't be able to bail Tebow out in the same way. Not sure if he'll be top 5 again, but he only needs to crack top 15 to be good value in redrafts. 70 1100 8 seems about right. I also strongly suggest buying in dynasty leagues if you are a team that can compete this season

 
As others have noted, John Fox coached teams have had PLENTY of fantasy relevant wide receivers. To be fair, Muhammad's main run of strong seasons came under George Seifert, but he led the NFL in yards and TDs in 2004, under Fox.

 
He was a top 5 WR last year, but I still don't trust the guy. Maybe it's the fact that it's a new OC, maybe it's the fact that I think Tebow will be fantasy death to most of the skill players he plays with ... I just can't put my finger on it, but I am going to try to avoid drafting him.
1) It's actually not a new OC, John Fox kept Mike McCoy in the same position2) Lloyd's numbers with Tebow were as strong as they were with Orton, and he was the #1 fantasy receiver last year
Lloyd was the #1 WR in my league weeks 1-14, averaging 13.4 ppgLloyd was the #8 WR in my league weeks 15-17 last year (with Tebow starting), averaging 12.2 ppg

BTW - if you look at weeks 1-12....the weeks before Orton completely fell apart, Lloyd averaged 15.3 ppg. In other words, no matter how you cut it Lloyd slowed down in the final 5 weeks, during which he was WR17 and averaged 8.6 ppg. THAT is what worries me - the slowdown in weeks 13-17.

On the flip side, he performed quite well with Tebow at QB and still received 28 targets in 3 weeks, about the same pace he was on all season.
All of what you said is true but Lloyd is one of the biggest mysteries going into 2011. And he is a gamble compared to so many others so why not let one of the other 11 owners take a chance on him? Lloyd was traded for the 1.10 in a recent rookie draft in my dynasty league. Don't know if that shows true value or the high side. Rookie QB/RB/WR/TE IMO they are all are subpar classes.this year.
It is precisely because he is a gamble that his draft slot is not where it should be. In redrafts, I'll probably try to snag him in the mid-teens. I have him and will hold him in my dynasty league though. People think it is a mirage. But they thought that last season as well and he continued to pile up points. For believers, he's one of the best gambles in the draft. If he repeats, you are buying a $100 bill for $50. If he doesn't, what are you really passing on? Santonio Holmes? Brandon Marshall? Those guys have warts too.

 

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