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Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

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Thread Topic: Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Demaryius Thomas Player Page

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Anyone's ranking of Thomas will undoubtedly correlate to how they think Peyton will fare in Denver. I'm a believer and think thomas becomes the goto guy here.

74/1154/9

 
I'm going to say 78 REC 1180 Yards and 10 TD's. If you look at what Thomas was doing with Tebow towards the end. He can only go up from here.

 
If Manning is even 90% himself, with Decker, Tamme & Dreeson, and McGahee and Hillman at RB, there is no reason to think Thomas won't reach 80 rec for 1250 and 10 td.

 
Quite simply, in my opinion, Thomas' year will all boil down to Manning. If Manning is healthy I expect big things from DT. Manning is a cerebral QB who will put the ball in Thomas' hands in the best possible situations. Take a look at the WR1's & WR2's in Manning's offenses over the years. Safe to say Thomas will be on par..

83, 1175, 10 TDs

 
Thomas had a sick ypc average with Tebow last year. Agree with others that he goes a Manning goes. Thomas should be better than he was last year if Manning is back to form. If all goes a planned from health perspective, I project 83, 1390, 12.

Thomas has all the physical tools and with a great qb teaching him fundamentals of plays, the sky is the limit and so is a top 5 finish.

 
I project 83, 1390, 12.
Not to call out this poster specifically, but waaaaay too many people are throwing out ridiculous WR #s this year in general. AJ Green, Kenny Britt, Thomas, etc are being projected around 1400 yards and with 12+ TDs by seemingly half of the posters in the various spotlight threads. Those numbers are REALLY hard to achieve. These guys might have the talent to do so, but 1400/12 only happens with a QB posting elite numbers in very passing-oriented offenses with a definite go to WR. It's really bad process to throw those numbers out as projections (ie "this is likely to happen") in almost any situation. For 2012 maybe Calvin fits the bill. Maybe. Anyone else give me the under and I'm willing to lay huge odds as well.As for Thomas, IMO he's clearly the guy that leaps off of the screen in Denver for me. His future is bright, and I see him as an emerging fantasy WR1. I don't see, however, Manning throwing the ball as much as he did in Indy. Denver is a different team, with a deep backfield, a line that can run block, and a coach that likes to pound the rock. I think that Manning will be a great NFL QB for the Broncos, he'll be efficient and help them win games, including in January if he stays healthy. He won't be throwing 40+ times a game anymore, though, like he had to in Indy in 2010.I expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 75 - 1150 - 8 for Thomas in 2012.
 
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Those are ridiculous numbers for Britt (specifically bc he is coming off an injury and doesn't have the greatest QB situation). 1400 & 12 are big numbers, but that's what these projection threads are for, arent they? A place where we can inflate the numbers of our franchise players so that we can inevitably be let down!?!

I say he (or green for that matter) might have a shot to get to one or the other (1400 or 12) but both would really be something else..

 
Part of the issue with the "ridiculous" WR numbers though is the question about the huge jump in QB numbers last season. Specifically, are they realistically going to stay that high moving forward? Or are they going to regress?

After you answer that question, you still need to decide on several things:

1) Will the offense in question pass enough to maintain that level of production?

2) Is the QB talented enough to get the WR in question the ball?

3) What other factors could detract from the primary WR's numbers? (i.e. is their a WR2 who will command more targets than usual, a TE who will take red zone looks, etc.)

4) What about the defense?

Ironically, I think almost all of these questions bode well for D. Thomas. Manning is certainly capable (and willing) to throw the ball enough to maintain a solid WR1 - in fact for years in Indy, he maintained numbers that sustained 2 FF WR1 - and even a decent WR2/3. The only two questions on DT are:

1) Will Manning stay healthy (and be healthy enough to throw deep enough to keep safeties hionest)?

2) How many catches will Decker have, and will they eat it to Thomas' production?

If you presume yes to #1, then I would suggest question #2 is almost irrelevant (given the Harrison/Wayne) numbers. Denver didn't bring in manning to hand off.

That said, I see 80 catches for 1250 and 11 TDs - but he could have much more.

For a WR to have 1300+ yards and double digit TDs, alot has to fall in place. I think in DT's case, it has. His talent + one of the best passing QBs in history = a possible top 5 WR.

 
Valid points. Denver is tough to predict this year. I certainly wouldn't say that Manning/Thomas have zero chance at being among the league leaders at their positions, but I can't say that it's likely because of team makeup and situation.

I don't see a ton of similarities between the current Broncos and the Colts of Manning's prime years, or the current Packers, Pats, Lions, Saints, etc that shattered passing records last year. The Broncos made the playoffs last year on the strength of their ground game and an opportunistic defense. I think they'll certainly throw more and more efficiently with Manning, but don't see them anywhere near the run / pass ratio that the post-Edge Colts were hitting, much less what a team like the Lions did in 2011. They're likely to have a strong, balanced offense IMO, with Manning throwing 525 - 550 times, as opposed to the 600+ attempts he's seen at times in the past. I also see more red zone balance, and I definitely doubt that Manning will hit the 30 passing TDs he was a lock for in his prime with the Colts.

 
Hot damn. No one projecting him for *less* than 1150 yards? I have to break him down a bit more, but this thread seems a mite optimistic.

 
Hot damn. No one projecting him for *less* than 1150 yards? I have to break him down a bit more, but this thread seems a mite optimistic.
Bro you seen the Denver OTA analysis? More than likely DT will have 2000 & 25 TDS. Also he is taking over kicking duties and has a rap single thats about to drop..
 
For reference purposes

Manning averaged 547 att/year from 2004-2010. If you take out 2010 when he threw a crazy 679 att his att/year drops to around 525.

Not calling anyone out, but thought it would be of interest to anyone projecting the Denver passing game this year.

 
For reference purposesManning averaged 547 att/year from 2004-2010. If you take out 2010 when he threw a crazy 679 att his att/year drops to around 525.Not calling anyone out, but thought it would be of interest to anyone projecting the Denver passing game this year.
Another stat worth noting (which seems to semi-contradict the above) is that Manning's leading receiver had 100.7 receptions per year from 2001-2010 (Wayne's rookie season) - his second receiver averaged 69.8 receptions. So, presuming somewhere in between is where I came up with 80 (which is conservative, imho - especially if DT becomes his #1 target). His 1250 yards is an average of 15.6 per catch - which is actually about a yard and half lower than his YPR with Tebow was last year. The 12 TDs was simply a matter of presuming that DT is the #1 - and that from 2000-2008 Harrison had 11+ TDs 6 out of 9 seasons (2 of 3 he missed it were his last 2 injury-plagued seasons). My point simply is that while 540 attempts is not a ton, Manning tends to throw ALOT to 2-4 guys, ignoring the 3rd and 4th options quite a bit.FavreCo - Manning threw to Garcon in Indy - and he had worse hands wasn't as big or strong as DT and ran routes poorly to boot. Tamme will certainly have a good year, but Manning's #1 WR option has always done well.
 
Projecting Thomas based on the numbers of a 1st ballot HOFer in his prime, on a different team with a different offensive system, and catching passes from a younger healthier version of Manning? I like Thomas, but using Harrison as a comparison seems WAY out of line at this point...

 
Projecting Thomas based on the numbers of a 1st ballot HOFer in his prime, on a different team with a different offensive system, and catching passes from a younger healthier version of Manning? I like Thomas, but using Harrison as a comparison seems WAY out of line at this point...
I agree and I have Thomas in a dynasty. This thread makes me think I should try and flip him. I say 77 for 1050 and 8 TDs.
 
Projecting Thomas based on the numbers of a 1st ballot HOFer in his prime, on a different team with a different offensive system, and catching passes from a younger healthier version of Manning? I like Thomas, but using Harrison as a comparison seems WAY out of line at this point...
Did you actually read any of what I posted?The only time I even mentioned Harrison was the TD numbers - and Harrison was not nearly the threat to break tackles as DT, nor was he as fast. I like Harrison, and yes, I agree that he his likely a first ballot HOF and if we could look at some other WR who was Manning's number 1, I would.

It also has long been discussed that who made who? In other words was it because of Manning that Harrison put up the numbers he did or vice versa.

But most of the above post that you were referencing is simply showing that whichever WR you want to look at (Manning's top target or even his 2nd favorite) - the numbers are still pretty guady. Harrison has AVERAGED 10 TDs a season with Manning at the helm (and that includes the beginning and end of his career when he wasn't in his prime). Wayne has basically average 7/year in that same span. The point being that Manning makes the WRs around him better. In 3 seasons BOTH Harrison and Wayne had double digit TDs. Wayne has gone for 1200+ yards 5 times, Harrison has done it 6 times. The point simply being, no matter which of Manning's WR you want to look at, the top 2 usually put up about 1200 yards and double digit TDs. In fact for my projections, as I stated, I pretty much averaged the two - and then went a little lower (save for TDs as I think DT's ability to break tackles and his larger red zone frame give him a slight edge in the TD department. Especially given Manning's propensity to throw near the goal line.)

Yes, I realize the Broncos are a different team. But as I said, you don't spend the money they did on Manning to watch him had off to an old, broken down RB in McGahee or a rookie.

Earlier Coeur had mentioned that he expects the Broncos to run a balanced offense "with Manning throwing 525 - 550 times, as opposed to the 600+ attempts he's seen at times in the past." Manning has thrown over 600 passes in a season exactly once. In fact, he has thrown over 560 times only 6 times in 13 years (less than half). That season he threw 49 TDs? 497 attempts. As Sexy Rexy pointed out, if you take out the crazy 679 attempts in 2010, Manning averages about 525 attempts per season - or the bottom of the range most are putting him at in attempts in Denver.

The point being that Manning does not need to throw 650 times to put up prolific passing and TD numbers - for even multiple WRs. In fact, he never has. And even Manning has said he has never had a WR like DT.

I am not comparing DT to Harrison or Wayne. Simply pointing out that Manning can produce great numbers for his primary and even secondary receiver - and that DT will be that. I realize my estimates might seem a little optimistic, but ANY lead dog WR with Manning at QB should be optimistic.

ETA: I don't want to belabor this point too much though - I think it kind of goes against the spirit of this particular thread. (i.e. too much discussion)

 
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Projecting Thomas based on the numbers of a 1st ballot HOFer in his prime, on a different team with a different offensive system, and catching passes from a younger healthier version of Manning? I like Thomas, but using Harrison as a comparison seems WAY out of line at this point...
I agree and I have Thomas in a dynasty. This thread makes me think I should try and flip him. I say 77 for 1050 and 8 TDs.
I think right now is a great time to trade Thomas in a dynasty. People have him valued as though he has already become a WR1 with gaudy stats. Maybe he exceeds those numbers a bit, but getting WR1 type material in exchange for a guy who is not a WR1 yet is a good move.Personally, I don't get the man crush everyone has on him. It's not like he set the world on fire last year. Granted, Tebow to Peyton is about the greatest QB upgrade of all time. I think he's going to struggle when he starts seeing real defenses that are going to actually respect the pass. I'd much rather some of the guys being drafted 3-5 rounds later. Outside of a couple of broken plays where his physical skills came to the fore, I didn't see much that makes me think he's going to be a beast. I'd rather a guy like Denarius Moore or Torrey Smith.60 receptions, 900 yds, 5 TDs
 
'johnadams said:
'bigmarc27 said:
Projecting Thomas based on the numbers of a 1st ballot HOFer in his prime, on a different team with a different offensive system, and catching passes from a younger healthier version of Manning? I like Thomas, but using Harrison as a comparison seems WAY out of line at this point...
I agree and I have Thomas in a dynasty. This thread makes me think I should try and flip him.

I say 77 for 1050 and 8 TDs.
I think right now is a great time to trade Thomas in a dynasty. People have him valued as though he has already become a WR1 with gaudy stats. Maybe he exceeds those numbers a bit, but getting WR1 type material in exchange for a guy who is not a WR1 yet is a good move.Personally, I don't get the man crush everyone has on him. It's not like he set the world on fire last year. Granted, Tebow to Peyton is about the greatest QB upgrade of all time. I think he's going to struggle when he starts seeing real defenses that are going to actually respect the pass. I'd much rather some of the guys being drafted 3-5 rounds later. Outside of a couple of broken plays where his physical skills came to the fore, I didn't see much that makes me think he's going to be a beast. I'd rather a guy like Denarius Moore or Torrey Smith.

60 receptions, 900 yds, 5 TDs
That's an interesting take. I hadn't really thought about the coverages these WR's were seeing last year as opposed to what they will see this year.
 
'DoubleG said:
Yes, I realize the Broncos are a different team. But as I said, you don't spend the money they did on Manning to watch him had off to an old, broken down RB in McGahee or a rookie.
You also don't ignore the running game that lead the NFL in yards last year. They had almost 2000 yards even taking out Tebow's total, and McGahee and Moreno both posted 4.8 YPC with zero threat of a passing game. Fox knows how to run the ball, and has the personnel on the line to do so. That will reduce 36 year old Manning's exposure to 3rd and long and open up play action. BTW, Manning is older and likely more broken down than is McGahee.
'DoubleG said:
And even Manning has said he has never had a WR like DT.
What do you expect him to say about his new teammates? That he's gonna miss Wayne and Clark? Demaryius Thomas has 54 catches for 834 yards, in his two year career. Harrison and Wayne are 3rd and 15th all time in catches; Manning threw to them a ton because they were great players. Thomas won't get the same % of targets as either Harrison or Wayne, because at this point he can't carry their jock. Period.
 
'DoubleG said:
Yes, I realize the Broncos are a different team. But as I said, you don't spend the money they did on Manning to watch him had off to an old, broken down RB in McGahee or a rookie.
You also don't ignore the running game that lead the NFL in yards last year. They had almost 2000 yards even taking out Tebow's total, and McGahee and Moreno both posted 4.8 YPC with zero threat of a passing game. Fox knows how to run the ball, and has the personnel on the line to do so. That will reduce 36 year old Manning's exposure to 3rd and long and open up play action. BTW, Manning is older and likely more broken down than is McGahee.
'DoubleG said:
And even Manning has said he has never had a WR like DT.
What do you expect him to say about his new teammates? That he's gonna miss Wayne and Clark? Demaryius Thomas has 54 catches for 834 yards, in his two year career. Harrison and Wayne are 3rd and 15th all time in catches; Manning threw to them a ton because they were great players. Thomas won't get the same % of targets as either Harrison or Wayne, because at this point he can't carry their jock. Period.
You do realize that % of targets has to equal 100% - no matter what team it is, right? Please get off the "Harrison/Wayne" comparison - I never said DT was anywhere near the WRs they are - but Manning is the same QB...and that's kinda the point. If Peyton Manning, one of the best QBs of all time, is going to throw 525-550 times this season, odds are SOMEONE is going to be catching quite a few decently thrown balls. As DT is likely the WR1 - the lion's share of targets (and catches) are likely going to him. It's that simple.
 
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You do realize that % of targets has to equal 100% - no matter what team it is, right? Please get off the "Harrison/Wayne" comparison - I never said DT was anywhere near the WRs they are
Actually you've implied it continually throughout the thread. Harrison and Wayne combined for such a large chunk of targets because they were great players. Manning isn't going to blindly throw to a guy because he happens to be playing the X or Y spot. He'll throw to whoever is open. We have literally zero idea how the offense is going to look, or who will be targeted in what quantities. You're making multiple huge baseless leaps of faith: Thomas is the WR1, Manning will target him as much as he did Harrison/Wayne, Thomas will make the most of those targets and score 11 times, the Broncos will throw as much as the Colts did in Manning's prime, etc. None of that is supported by facts.
but Manning is the same QB...and that's kinda the point. If Peyton Manning, one of the best QBs of all time, is going to throw 525-550 times this season, odds are SOMEONE is going to be catching quite a few decently thrown balls. As DT is likely the WR1 - the lion's share of targets (and catches) are likely going to him. It's that simple.
Yeah, not so much. Manning is 36, coming off of a severe injury, learning a new system, and getting used to new team mates. We really have no idea how effective he'll be at all. I'd definitely bet that he's lost at least a touch of effectiveness compared to the 31/32 year old version who was surrounded by HOFers and Pro Bowlers on the Colts.
 
You do realize that % of targets has to equal 100% - no matter what team it is, right? Please get off the "Harrison/Wayne" comparison - I never said DT was anywhere near the WRs they are
Actually you've implied it continually throughout the thread. Harrison and Wayne combined for such a large chunk of targets because they were great players. Manning isn't going to blindly throw to a guy because he happens to be playing the X or Y spot. He'll throw to whoever is open. We have literally zero idea how the offense is going to look, or who will be targeted in what quantities. You're making multiple huge baseless leaps of faith: Thomas is the WR1, Manning will target him as much as he did Harrison/Wayne, Thomas will make the most of those targets and score 11 times, the Broncos will throw as much as the Colts did in Manning's prime, etc. None of that is supported by facts.
but Manning is the same QB...and that's kinda the point. If Peyton Manning, one of the best QBs of all time, is going to throw 525-550 times this season, odds are SOMEONE is going to be catching quite a few decently thrown balls. As DT is likely the WR1 - the lion's share of targets (and catches) are likely going to him. It's that simple.
Yeah, not so much. Manning is 36, coming off of a severe injury, learning a new system, and getting used to new team mates. We really have no idea how effective he'll be at all. I'd definitely bet that he's lost at least a touch of effectiveness compared to the 31/32 year old version who was surrounded by HOFers and Pro Bowlers on the Colts.
Yeah but the point is this. If Manning in his hay day was a top 3 QB. And now older and coming off an injury like he did and is probably a top 10 or 12. (Which I'd agree with) If D. Thomas can put up some dang good numbers at the end of the year with Tebow. I'll take Manning at 80 to 90% of what he was. He Still can make Thomas a top 10 to Top 15 WR pretty easily with how things stand. I think Coeur de Lion is over thinking things here. :banned:
 
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Yeah, not so much. Manning is 36, coming off of a severe injury, learning a new system, and getting used to new team mates. We really have no idea how effective he'll be at all. I'd definitely bet that he's lost at least a touch of effectiveness compared to the 31/32 year old version who was surrounded by HOFers and Pro Bowlers on the Colts.
Seriously? Someone that is questioning Manning's ability to learn a new system? I question your ability to analyze football players.
 
'whatadai said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
Yeah, not so much. Manning is 36, coming off of a severe injury, learning a new system, and getting used to new team mates. We really have no idea how effective he'll be at all. I'd definitely bet that he's lost at least a touch of effectiveness compared to the 31/32 year old version who was surrounded by HOFers and Pro Bowlers on the Colts.
Seriously? Someone that is questioning Manning's ability to learn a new system? I question your ability to analyze football players.
:thumbup: :goodposting:
 
'whatadai said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
Yeah, not so much. Manning is 36, coming off of a severe injury, learning a new system, and getting used to new team mates. We really have no idea how effective he'll be at all. I'd definitely bet that he's lost at least a touch of effectiveness compared to the 31/32 year old version who was surrounded by HOFers and Pro Bowlers on the Colts.
Seriously? Someone that is questioning Manning's ability to learn a new system? I question your ability to analyze football players.
But I would question the rest of the players learning a new system.As for those suggesting (as have I) that Thomas would do light years better with Manning than with Tebow, it may not be apples to apples. If defenses were loading the box to stop the run and dared the Broncos to pass last year, I don't see any way that defenses this year will be playing 8 or 9 in the box with Manning at QB. Thomas did a lot of damage because there really were few guys defending in the secondary. I am sure defenses would be happy to let the Broncos run this year.

Similarly, Fox in the past has been a conservative coach and has opted to run the ball extensively. I realize that was pre-Manning, but I am not sure the Broncos will throw the ball 650 times like some people are suggesting. Overall, I do think that particularly early in the year there will be some growing pains for the younger guys and some rust to burn off for Manning.

 
'whatadai said:
'Coeur de Lion said:
Yeah, not so much. Manning is 36, coming off of a severe injury, learning a new system, and getting used to new team mates. We really have no idea how effective he'll be at all. I'd definitely bet that he's lost at least a touch of effectiveness compared to the 31/32 year old version who was surrounded by HOFers and Pro Bowlers on the Colts.
Seriously? Someone that is questioning Manning's ability to learn a new system? I question your ability to analyze football players.
Relax. Of course Manning can learn a new system. But there's no way that the entire offense, including Peyton, is as comfortable together as were the guys on the Colts, most of whom had been together for years. It takes time to be able to be on the same page fully in order to react as opposed to having to think for a second, even for a HOFer like Peyton Manning. Anyone expecting a completely smooth transition for the offense as a whole is asking way too much.
 
I've got him at 58/882/6 in my first go around at projections for the 2012 season.

He's got some positives working for him with the upgrade at QB, and strong finish to the 2011 year. And he put up some pretty good numbers last year as he enters the "magical" 3rd year as a WR. But he's been often injured and benefited (as someone previously mentioned) from having defenses totally key on stopping the run. Obviously I see Denver throwing the ball more this year, but John Fox still likes the run and with Peyton returning from injury they may take it slower with him. However, I do see some shootouts in the AFC West as I think all 4 Teams (if healthy) can put up some points and none of them have that great of a defense. So I like his upside.

My final concern with him is while everyone tends to agree he has "raw talent", he still is lacking in being a polished receiver. If he can improve on his route running and being where he's supposed to be when he's supposed to be there, then I think he could end up top 15. However, I feel so much of what Manning does is based on timimg and full confidence in his receiver making the right read. A couple bad reads by Thomas could cause him to drop down Mannings pecking order and really hurt his season.

Overall: I think his ceiling is top 15. His floor is WR4. I know it's a wide gap but I think he's got the talent, it's just a lot of question marks around him (and Manning) this season. Ultimately I think he's being drafted too high and I see him finishing somewhere around the WR30 mark.

 
We had multiple Quarterbacks throw for almost 5,000 yards last season and people are projecting Thomas for less than 1,000?

Peyton will throw for a minimum of 4,000 yards this season with an over / under of about 500 yards.

Demaryius Thomas has a career statline of:

54 Catches / 834 Yards / 6 Touchdowns

-

Ask yourself, how many catches do you think Demaryius Thomas can catch with Peyton Manning throwing the ball? Logic dictates that he will catch at least 70 passes from Manning this year (a little more than double the 32 he caught last year), especially when there are games on the schedule that could potentially be shootouts:

Steelers

Falcons

Texans

Patriots

Chargers x2

Raiders x2

Saints

Panthers

Throw in the fact that both Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Reggie Wayne all caught about 60 - 70 passes the past few years; let's pencil in Demaryius Thomas for a floor of about 70 catches:

70 Catches (at a career YPC of 15.4) / 1,078 Yards

-

Thomas had 4 Touchdowns last year and I believe the Broncos will be in scoring position quite a bit more than last year with Tebow at the helm. I also believe it would be in the Broncos best interest to have Peyton passing the ball in the RZ as opposed to handing it off to one of those Running backs.

Without turning this into a huge novel, these are my projections:

Floor:

70 Catches / 1,150 Yards / 6 Touchdowns

Ceiling:

90 Catches / 1,386 Yards / 14 Touchdowns

 
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We had multiple Quarterbacks throw for almost 5,000 yards last season and people are projecting Thomas for less than 1,000?

Peyton will throw for a minimum of 4,000 yards this season with an over / under of about 500 yards.

Demaryius Thomas has a career statline of:

54 Catches / 834 Yards / 6 Touchdowns

-

Ask yourself, how many catches do you think Demaryius Thomas can catch with Peyton Manning throwing the ball? Logic dictates that he will catch at least 70 passes from Manning this year (a little more than double the 32 he caught last year), especially when there are games on the schedule that could potentially be shootouts:

Steelers

Falcons

Texans

Patriots

Chargers x2

Raiders x2

Saints

Panthers

Throw in the fact that both Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Reggie Wayne all caught about 60 - 70 passes the past few years; let's pencil in Demaryius Thomas for a floor of about 70 catches:

70 Catches (at a career YPC of 15.4) / 1,078 Yards

-

Thomas had 4 Touchdowns last year and I believe the Broncos will be in scoring position quite a bit more than last year with Tebow at the helm. I also believe it would be in the Broncos best interest to have Peyton passing the ball in the RZ as opposed to handing it off to one of those Running backs.

Without turning this into a huge novel, these are my projections:

Floor:

70 Catches / 1,150 Yards / 6 Touchdowns

Ceiling:

90 Catches / 1,386 Yards / 14 Touchdowns
I don't disagree . . . but isn't it possible that Thomas did as well as he did last year because he faced man coverage and there was absolutley no help because there were 8 or 9 guys on the line of scrimmage to stop the run? I am guessing no one has to worry about Manning taking off and running the football. Teams this year will scheme way differently for Manning than Tebow. Thomas had the benefit of being able to catch the ball and breaking off big plays because there was very little help in the secondary. I don't see that happening as frequently this year. Also, if he is not a great route runner, Manning may be somewhat reluctant to throw to him. Given that the Denver situation is a total "no data set" scenario (Manning coming back from injury, playing for a new team and coach, younger players playing with a new QB, etc.), there are no easy predictions or fully expected outcomes. Everything will be no more than guess work at this point.
 
We had multiple Quarterbacks throw for almost 5,000 yards last season and people are projecting Thomas for less than 1,000?

Peyton will throw for a minimum of 4,000 yards this season with an over / under of about 500 yards.

Demaryius Thomas has a career statline of:

54 Catches / 834 Yards / 6 Touchdowns

-

Ask yourself, how many catches do you think Demaryius Thomas can catch with Peyton Manning throwing the ball? Logic dictates that he will catch at least 70 passes from Manning this year (a little more than double the 32 he caught last year), especially when there are games on the schedule that could potentially be shootouts:

Steelers

Falcons

Texans

Patriots

Chargers x2

Raiders x2

Saints

Panthers

Throw in the fact that both Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Reggie Wayne all caught about 60 - 70 passes the past few years; let's pencil in Demaryius Thomas for a floor of about 70 catches:

70 Catches (at a career YPC of 15.4) / 1,078 Yards

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Thomas had 4 Touchdowns last year and I believe the Broncos will be in scoring position quite a bit more than last year with Tebow at the helm. I also believe it would be in the Broncos best interest to have Peyton passing the ball in the RZ as opposed to handing it off to one of those Running backs.

Without turning this into a huge novel, these are my projections:

Floor:

70 Catches / 1,150 Yards / 6 Touchdowns

Ceiling:

90 Catches / 1,386 Yards / 14 Touchdowns
I don't disagree . . . but isn't it possible that Thomas did as well as he did last year because he faced man coverage and there was absolutley no help because there were 8 or 9 guys on the line of scrimmage to stop the run? I am guessing no one has to worry about Manning taking off and running the football. Teams this year will scheme way differently for Manning than Tebow. Thomas had the benefit of being able to catch the ball and breaking off big plays because there was very little help in the secondary. I don't see that happening as frequently this year. Also, if he is not a great route runner, Manning may be somewhat reluctant to throw to him. Given that the Denver situation is a total "no data set" scenario (Manning coming back from injury, playing for a new team and coach, younger players playing with a new QB, etc.), there are no easy predictions or fully expected outcomes. Everything will be no more than guess work at this point.
Good analysis by both of you. I think it will boil down to can manning's in game coaching (audibles at line, calling out hot routes) compensate for the increased coverage his WRs will see? We'll see come this season..

 
Good analysis by both of you. I think it will boil down to can manning's in game coaching (audibles at line, calling out hot routes) compensate for the increased coverage his WRs will see? We'll see come this season..
I don't know what will happen, and as I mentioned earlier, Manning can likely handle learning a new system and picking things up quickly. We know what worked in IND. What we don't know is how everyone else can handle picking up what Manning wants, all the audibles, running exact routes on grass outside vs. on turf inside, etc. Bottom line, there are a lot of moving parts and variables in play here.
 
In his last 7 games with Tim Tebow at QB, Thomas produced the following line; 35/745/4…that incidentally is a 21.3 YPR. If one thing is clear, Thomas can produce big plays with any QB. He got to the NFL as a 1st round draft pick coming out of a triple option offense. So now, give him one of the greatest QB’s to have ever played…and what will he do? That’s the quandary of the tantalizing upside of Thomas.

As physically talented as Thomas is, and it certainly seems that in OTA’s and mini-camps he was impressive…moreso than Decker, there is a rawness about him that has to be taken into account.

Of any QB, perhaps in NFL history…Peyton Manning is a chessmaster. Moving pieces around, both on the offensive and thereby defensive sides of the ball, Manning is a QB that requires precision. That requires his receivers to be where they have to be, when they have to be there. As recently as June 28, Thomas even acknowledges that this was something he was going to have to improve on. Now on the other side of the fence, even Manning has not been able to help himself with regard to observing and noticing Thomas’s prodigious talent. But what this screams to me is that while at the end of the season, you’ll look at Thomas’s numbers and be right in saying he had a good season, I believe it will be an inconsistent one.

One week he’ll go off for 10/165/2…the next two, he’ll put up 2/26/0 & 1/24/0. There will be times when he flat out dominant, and others where he can be taken out of the game. It’s why I think that despite the obvious talent disparity…Decker will become more of Manning’s go-to guy once the bullets start flying because he’s simply a more refined player. Now one thing to note…while Thomas may be the most talented WR Manning’s ever had…neither Decker or Thomas offer the type of refined WR he had in Harrison/Wayne. Pigeon-holing the current pieces of the DEN passing attack into what Manning has been may be a wrong methodology. But for 2012, for as physically talented as Thomas is, I think he’s going to be inconsistent in 2012 along the lines in Vincent Jackson, he’ll ultimately wind up being an upper tier WR2. I think his upside is capped and they'll be more weeks where you curse him than celebrate him.

Prediction: 67 Receptions, 1098 Receiving Yards, 9 TD’s.

 
I don't disagree . . . but isn't it possible that Thomas did as well as he did last year because he faced man coverage and there was absolutley no help because there were 8 or 9 guys on the line of scrimmage to stop the run? I am guessing no one has to worry about Manning taking off and running the football. Teams this year will scheme way differently for Manning than Tebow. Thomas had the benefit of being able to catch the ball and breaking off big plays because there was very little help in the secondary. I don't see that happening as frequently this year. Also, if he is not a great route runner, Manning may be somewhat reluctant to throw to him. Given that the Denver situation is a total "no data set" scenario (Manning coming back from injury, playing for a new team and coach, younger players playing with a new QB, etc.), there are no easy predictions or fully expected outcomes. Everything will be no more than guess work at this point.
Absolutely, that was accounted for by using Thomas' career YPC (15.4) over his grossly inflated 17.2 YPC he had last year. It's probably a bit more fair to peg Thomas at about 14YPC, which is in-line with what Reggie Wayne / Marvin Harrison have done with Peyton in the past.Teams will scheme for Peyton Manning to be Peyton Manning, which in the past has resulted in some pretty gaudy numbers. That offensive line in Denver is a lot better than the one that Peyton stood behind his last couple years in Indy.

I'm not certain how good the Denver defense really is but there were a more few games last year where Peyton could have theoretically put up some big numbers:

Week 4: Green Bay 49 - Denver 23

Week 5: San Diego 29 - Denver 24

Week 8: Detroit 45 - Denver 10

Week 9: Denver 38 - Oakland 24

Week 13: Denver 35 - Minnesota 32

Week 15: New England 40 - Denver 23

Week 16: Buffalo 40 - Denver 14

Peyton will give them the ability to go stride for stride on some of the more prolific offenses in the game. In the instances such as above (7 games, almost half a the schedule), Peyton's #1 target would have had a chance to put up some numbers.

Granted, it won't all be to one guy but Peyton has had seasons where his receivers caught:

100 Catches (8x)

90 Catches (2x)

80 Catches (5x)

70 Catches (3x)

Historically speaking, Peyton's #1 target has never caught less than about 80 balls. There's nothing so special about this Denver situation (no elite defense or running back) that makes me think there won't be one guy who catches a plethora of passes. If you're not a believer in Demaryius Thomas, then the shark move would be to pick up Jacob Tamme.

In 8 games with Manning in 2010 after Dallas Clark went down with an injury:

67 Catches / 631 Yards / 4 Touchdowns

Assuming Demaryius Thomas gets double-coverage and can't beat it consistently, Tamme is definitely the proven outlet.

I, however am a believer in the 6,3 receiver who has plenty of skill with the ball in his hands. Remember those screens they used to throw to Dallas Clark? I'm sure we'll see more than a few of those to Demaryius Thomas this year. If someone can take advantage of this guys raw skill, it's going to be Peyton Manning.

Similar to how Brett Favre helped a raw 6,4 Sidney Rice produce:

83 Catches / 1,312 Yards / 8 Touchdowns

 
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I don't disagree . . . but isn't it possible that Thomas did as well as he did last year because he faced man coverage and there was absolutley no help because there were 8 or 9 guys on the line of scrimmage to stop the run? I am guessing no one has to worry about Manning taking off and running the football. Teams this year will scheme way differently for Manning than Tebow. Thomas had the benefit of being able to catch the ball and breaking off big plays because there was very little help in the secondary. I don't see that happening as frequently this year. Also, if he is not a great route runner, Manning may be somewhat reluctant to throw to him. Given that the Denver situation is a total "no data set" scenario (Manning coming back from injury, playing for a new team and coach, younger players playing with a new QB, etc.), there are no easy predictions or fully expected outcomes. Everything will be no more than guess work at this point.
I think this is spot on. Just too many little unknowns surrounding Thomas and his situation.
 
I don't disagree . . . but isn't it possible that Thomas did as well as he did last year because he faced man coverage and there was absolutley no help because there were 8 or 9 guys on the line of scrimmage to stop the run? I am guessing no one has to worry about Manning taking off and running the football. Teams this year will scheme way differently for Manning than Tebow. Thomas had the benefit of being able to catch the ball and breaking off big plays because there was very little help in the secondary. I don't see that happening as frequently this year. Also, if he is not a great route runner, Manning may be somewhat reluctant to throw to him. Given that the Denver situation is a total "no data set" scenario (Manning coming back from injury, playing for a new team and coach, younger players playing with a new QB, etc.), there are no easy predictions or fully expected outcomes. Everything will be no more than guess work at this point.
Absolutely, that was accounted for by using Thomas' career YPC (15.4) over his grossly inflated 17.2 YPC he had last year. It's probably a bit more fair to peg Thomas at about 14YPC, which is in-line with what Reggie Wayne / Marvin Harrison have done with Peyton in the past.Teams will scheme for Peyton Manning to be Peyton Manning, which in the past has resulted in some pretty gaudy numbers. That offensive line in Denver is a lot better than the one that Peyton stood behind his last couple years in Indy.

I'm not certain how good the Denver defense really is but there were a more few games last year where Peyton could have theoretically put up some big numbers:

Week 4: Green Bay 49 - Denver 23

Week 5: San Diego 29 - Denver 24

Week 8: Detroit 45 - Denver 10

Week 9: Denver 38 - Oakland 24

Week 13: Denver 35 - Minnesota 32

Week 15: New England 40 - Denver 23

Week 16: Buffalo 40 - Denver 14

Peyton will give them the ability to go stride for stride on some of the more prolific offenses in the game. In the instances such as above (7 games, almost half a the schedule), Peyton's #1 target would have had a chance to put up some numbers.

Granted, it won't all be to one guy but Peyton has had seasons where his receivers caught:

100 Catches (8x)

90 Catches (2x)

80 Catches (5x)

70 Catches (3x)

Historically speaking, Peyton's #1 target has never caught less than about 80 balls. There's nothing so special about this Denver situation (no elite defense or running back) that makes me think there won't be one guy who catches a plethora of passes. If you're not a believer in Demaryius Thomas, then the shark move would be to pick up Jacob Tamme.

In 8 games with Manning in 2010 after Dallas Clark went down with an injury:

67 Catches / 631 Yards / 4 Touchdowns

Assuming Demaryius Thomas gets double-coverage and can't beat it consistently, Tamme is definitely the proven outlet.

I, however am a believer in the 6,3 receiver who has plenty of skill with the ball in his hands. Remember those screens they used to throw to Dallas Clark? I'm sure we'll see more than a few of those to Demaryius Thomas this year. If someone can take advantage of this guys raw skill, it's going to be Peyton Manning.

Similar to how Brett Favre helped a raw 6,4 Sidney Rice produce:

83 Catches / 1,312 Yards / 8 Touchdowns
Again, I don't know what is going to happen. But comparing things that happened involving a healthy Peyton Manning in his prime is different than him missing a season with multiple injuries and now playing on another team. The DEN receiving corps is not the Colts receiving corps. Similarly, John Fox has shown no predilection to throw the ball 680 times like the Colts did in 2010.For example, Chad Ocho Cinco went from a middling Bengals team to an awesome high flying Patriots team. CERTAINLY Chad would light things up last year, right? There was no way that pairing wouldn't work.

Bottom line is, we have no idea how things are going to play out in Denver.

Personally, I am guessing about 70-1050-6 for Thomas this year. That involves some things going right and some things going wrong for Manning and the offense. But IMO far too many people are looking at the high side and COMPLETELY ruling out any outcomes that involve problems, hiccups, and speed bumps along the way.

 
Take a raw WR such as Thomas and look at his physical tools. He has speed, size and strong hands which all cannot be taught. You cannot teach someone how to be 6'3'' 225 and run a 4.4 40. Look at the player is he a hardworker or is he a bum, can he learn how to adjust to playing at a higher level or does he flame out. Everything we have seen and heard from Thomas suggests he is a hardworker with intagebles that cannot be taught. On the flip side he may have been a 9 route guy in college, but that doesnt mean all he can do is run the 9 route. Again can he LEARN how to run routes? If you believe Thomas can learn how to play in a real NFL system and become a skilled route runner or at least a decent route runner then buy. He has clearly demonstrated the ability to adjust to balls (touchdown over Revis ... Just saying) and make catches on poorly thrown passes ... he did have Tebow as a QB. My thinking is Manning comes in and his accuracy is a significant upgrade over Tebow, as well as his football knowledge. He helps Thomas learn to be a better football player and Thomas gives Manning the most Physically gifted WR he has ever had. Maybe not the best route runner or most savy WR but most physically talents WR. Manning will quickly learn to trust Thomas to make catches when the ball is near him and Manning will know how to throw Thomas open. Sure Manning could get hit at any time and be out, but how much worse could it get than Tebow. If Manning is healthy Thomas should be a top 5 WR. You cannot be afraid of projecting a guy for his huge upside and Manning should bring Thomas into the debate of the top WRs. I don't at all think its crazy to project Thomas at 90 catches 1400 yards and 12 TDs. Again he is incredible physically talents and Manning will help him along mentally, I'm all in.

 
i'd rather have Eric Decker several rounds later. Ya know Manning is gonna rely on Decker, specially if Thomas is getting the other team's #1 CB. thomas as an NFL draft prospect is extremely likable, but thomas as a fantasy football prospect is about opportunities. And it's still questionable IMO if he knows the route tree. How can Manning trust a guy who only runs posts and flies?

 
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I don't disagree . . . but isn't it possible that Thomas did as well as he did last year because he faced man coverage and there was absolutley no help because there were 8 or 9 guys on the line of scrimmage to stop the run? I am guessing no one has to worry about Manning taking off and running the football. Teams this year will scheme way differently for Manning than Tebow. Thomas had the benefit of being able to catch the ball and breaking off big plays because there was very little help in the secondary. I don't see that happening as frequently this year. Also, if he is not a great route runner, Manning may be somewhat reluctant to throw to him. Given that the Denver situation is a total "no data set" scenario (Manning coming back from injury, playing for a new team and coach, younger players playing with a new QB, etc.), there are no easy predictions or fully expected outcomes. Everything will be no more than guess work at this point.
:goodposting: I doubt any team wants to be victimized like pittsburgh was -- I don't see any reason he won't be bracketed constantly by a high safety, and he might not be the best route runner.you'd think tamme and decker would be manning's first options before looking deep for some guy ad libbing, and they've already come out and said te will likely be manning's first read much of the time in this offense.people constantly throw these limited sample stats out for thomas, projecting an entire season off 4 games last year, or whatever it is, so let's look at those games.I assume we're just talking about week 13 on, including playoffs, because he didn't produce jack prior to that.in that stretch he got 18/433/3 against NE, MIN, + an 80 yd td in OT vs PIT.the rest of the time he got 17/312/1 over 4 games.I'm not saying he won't be great, or he will be great, or whatever -- this is mostly in response to that other guy's thread about why he's getting drafted 'so low', meaning the 4th instead of the 1st, I guess.
 
I believe he will be Manning's number one guy on the outside much like harrison/wayne. Decker may end up catching more passes but I like Thomas to catch deep balls and get lots of yards after the catch on screens and crossing patterns.

80/1200/10

 
What I don't like about Manning landing in Denver is that everyone who doubted DT gets a free pass - "The only reason Thomas was a top 8 receiver is because Peyton made him that." I doubt that Thomas ever has a 90-catch season, but there are oh so few players who can do more with 80 catches than this pimp.

I see a floor of roughly 70, 1,100, 7 = 222 PPR, 13.9 PPR PPG. The ceiling; however, is just silly. I'll go with a comfortable 82, 1270, 11, good for 275 PPR, 17.2 PPR PPG, and a top 8 finish.

 
This is bizarre, everyone seems to be projecting like 1200 and double digit TDs which is probably around WR7 yet his ADP is around WR20 :confused:

 
Its definitely a hard nut to crack. IF DT falls to me I'll be ready, but I won't bank on him as a starter for my team. That note about defenses playing differently because its no longer Tebow back there makes a lot of sense. I don't think 8 in the box will happen as much and DT will need to learn a more orchestrated game style that has to do more about football IQ than just pure athleticism.

However, if you don't get him maybe you could just buy low and get him after they establish their timing later in the season?

 
Grabbed him at the 3rd/4th round turn in a 12 Team non ppr league. Huge fan. I think his raw physical ability is something that Manning will find a way to utilize Thomas. I think something that alot of people are missing is Manning's intelligence. He will realize Thomas is his most talented receiver and will get him the ball and put points on the board with Thomas. I have no fear of him underperforming his ADP.

 
We had multiple Quarterbacks throw for almost 5,000 yards last season and people are projecting Thomas for less than 1,000?

Peyton will throw for a minimum of 4,000 yards this season with an over / under of about 500 yards.

Demaryius Thomas has a career statline of:

54 Catches / 834 Yards / 6 Touchdowns

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Ask yourself, how many catches do you think Demaryius Thomas can catch with Peyton Manning throwing the ball? Logic dictates that he will catch at least 70 passes from Manning this year (a little more than double the 32 he caught last year), especially when there are games on the schedule that could potentially be shootouts:

Steelers

Falcons

Texans

Patriots

Chargers x2

Raiders x2

Saints

Panthers

Throw in the fact that both Pierre Garcon, Austin Collie, and Reggie Wayne all caught about 60 - 70 passes the past few years; let's pencil in Demaryius Thomas for a floor of about 70 catches:

70 Catches (at a career YPC of 15.4) / 1,078 Yards

-

Thomas had 4 Touchdowns last year and I believe the Broncos will be in scoring position quite a bit more than last year with Tebow at the helm. I also believe it would be in the Broncos best interest to have Peyton passing the ball in the RZ as opposed to handing it off to one of those Running backs.

Without turning this into a huge novel, these are my projections:

Floor:

70 Catches / 1,150 Yards / 6 Touchdowns

Ceiling:

90 Catches / 1,386 Yards / 14 Touchdowns
I don't disagree . . . but isn't it possible that Thomas did as well as he did last year because he faced man coverage and there was absolutley no help because there were 8 or 9 guys on the line of scrimmage to stop the run? I am guessing no one has to worry about Manning taking off and running the football. Teams this year will scheme way differently for Manning than Tebow. Thomas had the benefit of being able to catch the ball and breaking off big plays because there was very little help in the secondary. I don't see that happening as frequently this year. Also, if he is not a great route runner, Manning may be somewhat reluctant to throw to him. Given that the Denver situation is a total "no data set" scenario (Manning coming back from injury, playing for a new team and coach, younger players playing with a new QB, etc.), there are no easy predictions or fully expected outcomes. Everything will be no more than guess work at this point.
great points..DT is a tough player to get a read on...but he's certainly one the best lottery picks out there....at worst you could get ho-hum WR4 numbers out of him (65-70 catches), at best, he's a top 10-12 WR..

chances are, he's somewhere in the middle, and people will draft him too early..

80-1120-7. 14 yards per catch.

If I'm going to take a lottery pick from the Broncos, it's going to be McGahee..he's the real play here..

 

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