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Falcons WRs trend (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter joffer
- Start date
joffer
Footballguy
even weirder. i only looked at the targets for this year, but they don't seem to fluctuate that much, he just does a lot more with them on the road. maybe he just likes grass better?
packersfan
Footballguy
You'd think someone with Jones' speed and big-play ability would thrive in the dome.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
You'd have to be pretty freaking ballsy to base a sit/start decision on this information. I have Julio. He will be my WR next to Fitz as long as he is playing, regardless of location.
What do the home/road splits look like for the rest of the offense/defense?
My first thought was that the ATL defense probably does better at home, so the gameplan might be more designed to extend drives and eat clock rather than take shots when they play at home. Roddy is a monster on 3rd down, IIRC. So I could see him doing better in a more conservative offense, while Julio does better when they play more aggressively.
My first thought was that the ATL defense probably does better at home, so the gameplan might be more designed to extend drives and eat clock rather than take shots when they play at home. Roddy is a monster on 3rd down, IIRC. So I could see him doing better in a more conservative offense, while Julio does better when they play more aggressively.
texansfan80
Footballguy
Well everyone sit Julio this weekend and let's see what happens
MAC_32
Footballguy
NO DEAL!
NCPanthersFan
Footballguy
“No, I don’t believe so. I think it’s basically how teams are trying to defend us. I don’t think it has anything to do with home or away. We knew we were going to get some one-on-one matchups with the type of defense that the Eagles played, and when we got those matchups we were going to have opportunities. It’s a great hookup with Matt and Julio on the nine route on the left side and then we had a nice hookup on a quick screen, and Roddy White threw an outstanding block. A legal block and I thought the officials did a nice job picking up the flag.”
Mike Smith: On why WR Julio Jones always has big games on the road:
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2012/10/29/qa-smith-discusses-the-aftermath-of-the-win-over-the-eagles/
Mike Smith: On why WR Julio Jones always has big games on the road:
http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-falcons-blog/2012/10/29/qa-smith-discusses-the-aftermath-of-the-win-over-the-eagles/
DoubleG
Footballguy
FOr those that actually know the numbers - a question:
Is it possible that Julio Jones is faster but R. White is quicker?
My point is fast straight line speed would likely be more of an asset on grass, where DBs struggle to turn and break back suddenly, but quickness (the ability to change direction suddenly) is more value - and indeed, excentuated on turf. Just a thought.
Is it possible that Julio Jones is faster but R. White is quicker?
My point is fast straight line speed would likely be more of an asset on grass, where DBs struggle to turn and break back suddenly, but quickness (the ability to change direction suddenly) is more value - and indeed, excentuated on turf. Just a thought.
solorca
Footballguy
While he's certainly performed better on the road, Julio did have a couple nice games at home last year...Week 15 (Home vs. Jacksonville) - 6/85/1Week 17 (Home vs. Tampa Bay) - 5/76/2
Shlon
Footballguy
Week 17 was for only a quarter since Falcons benched starters after 1st quarter (5th seed wrapped up).
NCPanthersFan
Footballguy
It is a myth to think it is done on purpose. Whether Julio just plays better away, well that is a different question.
steveski
Footballguy
I'm trying to be positive since I own Julio and I'm going against Roddy this week.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
How could you ignore these stats? We've literally been given a blueprint as to how Julio performs home and away. This is essentially the inverse of Lance Moore's situation, which I use in determining whether or not I start him as well. I have an embarrassment of riches at my WR position in the league I own Julio (Julio, Nicks, Cobb, Maclin, Young). I'm not saying I'm going to sit him, but after analyzing each of my WR's match ups this week I won't rule it out either. I will admit I'm utterly confused as to why this is happening as well.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
the difference is that lance moore is not the guy you took early in the draft, and is most likely one of several flex dudes on your team.
if I sit julio because of this voodoo and he goes off for 8/150/2 I am going to kill myself.
if I sit julio because of this voodoo and he goes off for 8/150/2 I am going to kill myself.
donkshow
Footballguy
Exactly
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But it isn't voodoo. There's a year and a half worth of stats to back it up.
NCPanthersFan
Footballguy
The problem with the data is that there is no answer to the big question - Why?. Why would Julio do better away than at home - and that answer would need to be confirmed by someone who knew. Does he freak out in the dome? Is he afraid to put his body to the test on turf? Does he suffer from stadium claustrophobia? I would need an answer akin to that before I started thinking this was not voodoo.
DoubleG
Footballguy
I threw out a thought in post 15 as to why it might be - no one commented. The Falcons claim it's simply how they have been defended. If that is truly the case, it could change.
NCPanthersFan
Footballguy
Saw that one Double. We need someone who knows how to evaluate to answer that one.
Rick James
Footballguy
This is silly. "A year and a half worth of stats" = 23 games. Hardly a large enough sample size. And, as mentioned in another thread, Julio was injured in a few HOME games last year, and was sat after the 1st quarter in week 17.
packseasontix
Footballguy
Its like saying saying in baseball because you can't explain why someone slumps in July each year or hits better in Milwaukee compared to Kansas City you think its voodoo. Its a fact about the split and the only thing you can say is, will it continue? People overact to so much on other things, but this is very straight forward and you need to decide if his off week is better than what you can get elsewhere, if it is you keep him in, if its not then you sit him.I can't say it will continue but its somethign I would consider when looking at trades and long term value now, I think it goes to question if you have a chance at AJ or Julio you maybe lean towards AJ based on a week to week consistancy...?
packersfan
Footballguy
Moore has had 7-67-0 and 9-121-0 games on the road this season. If you're using home/road as the deciding factor about whether to start Moore you missed out on two very good games, including one terrific game. The same applies to Jones, who's obviously much more talented. Sit him at home and you run the risk of him having a huge game and delivering as the high-upside WR1 he was projected to be this season. If you're comfortable doing that, that's fine. This Jones owner is not. There's no way Julio Jones ever sits for me as long as he has a pulse and the game has meaning for the Falcons. He's far too talented to sit given the upside he has and has clearly demonstrated numerous times since entering the league.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
You and I have been chilling in that Lance Moore thread a bit this year. When it comes to predicting Moore's stats, it's the TDs that come at home on turf as opposed to away on grass. The disparity between his receptions and yards on both surfaces is not large enough to really take note of. In his career he has 5 TDs in 27 games on grass as opposed to 27 TDs in 48 games on turf. Both of Moore's TDs this year have come on turf. The reason Moore put up a 9-121-0 stat vs. TB was because Graham was sidelined. I know me some Moore.I'm sorry but I can't ignore the fact that Julio has 26 catches for 392 yards and 5 TDs in four games away, outdoors on grass this year and 9 catches for 107 yards and 0 TDs in three games at home, indoors on turf. Coupled with the fact that ATL is playing a DAL secondary allowing the 3rd least points to WRs this year and it'd be asinine to not at least question starting him if you have other legitimate options this week. In no way is this thread silly.
packersfan
Footballguy
"Other legitimate options" is the key phrase here. I don't think there are many better WR options than Julio Jones. If you have the kind of depth at WR that allows you to sit Jones when he has a more problematic matchup (such as the one this week), that's outstanding. My guess is most Jones owners in re-draft leagues don't have that type of depth and WR talent. Since we're talking about Lance Moore, for example, he's back at home this week with a favorable matchup but there's no way I'd start him over Jones and I'm a huge Moore fan as you know from his thread. But that's me. As I said, there's no way I'm sitting Jones given the type of potential he has every week.
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Insoxicated
Some of us don't want to wait until the end of a players career before we start trying to project what he's going to do next.
Rick James
Footballguy
Some of you may want to use better stats than home-away receiving splits.
DoubleG
Footballguy
If I'm not mistaken, 20 of those 23 games we're discussing are not only home/away splits - they are turf/grass splits. Playing surface would possibly be more of an actual factor than location.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
maybe you oughta give this some more thought...
cmv5
Footballguy
I just feel like there is not enough information yet or manipulation here to make your decision based on home and road splits. First of all, he was a rookie who was injured for half of a season in an entirely different offense. Secondly, 2 out of maybe 4-5 games last year at home where he was healthy he had 5-85-1 and 4-76-2. Do we ignore those?
I would give much more credence to the fact that they are playing Dallas and this will be arguably the toughest secondary they will face this year. Instead, come Sunday night, people will be comparing the wattage of the bulbs between Philly and Atlanta's stadiums instead of which DB was on Julio.
I would give much more credence to the fact that they are playing Dallas and this will be arguably the toughest secondary they will face this year. Instead, come Sunday night, people will be comparing the wattage of the bulbs between Philly and Atlanta's stadiums instead of which DB was on Julio.
DoubleG
Footballguy
5-85-X or 4-76-X is your argument for success? TDs are highly variable. No offense, but 5-85 or 4-76 out of your WR1 is hardly anything to help your confidence. The interesting thing about Julio's stats (and the reason they might be considered worth looking into) is they are almost the perfect opposite of Roddy's. It's not like in certain games the Falcons weren't passing the ball, or the offense was struggling. The home games (which are all on turf) compared to the road games (all of which, save for 3 are on grass) seems to indicate that the Falcons tend to favor one of their two outside receivers based at least in some way on playing surface (not light bulb wattage or anything as arbitrary as home/away). Could that be due to how opposing teams defense them based on surface? Sure - and that could change.
But it is also possible that it is somehow related to how each player performs relative to opponents on said surfaces that is a factor. If that is indeed the case, it is possible (again, "possible" does not mean "all the time" nor does it even mean "very likely") that such a trend will continue.
The two questions you need to ask to determine on whether or not you want this "stat" to effect decision making (or whether you think it will effect each players stat-line) are:
1) Do you think the reason for the seemingly strong correlation between playing surface and performance is a causal/relational one or simply a coincidnetal one?
2) If you beleive there exsists a legitimate relationship, is the root of the cause the Falcons (or the players themselves) or the opposing team that is creating the difference?
The reason for question #2 is that if it is the defense or Falcon play calling, then the relationship may not continue moving forward as teams adjust their defenses. If you think it is a relational correlation and you beleive it is a result of the way the two players perform, there is a reason to presume that the relationship between the surface and which WR has a good performance, will continue to exsist - at least on some level.
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Shlon
Footballguy
Need to factor in that 4-76 was for only one quarter.As for surface, 131 yards (2TD) was on Field Turf (Colts), 128 yards (1TD) was also on Field Turf (Saints). Field Turf is also used at the Georgia Dome.
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NCPanthersFan
Footballguy
I believe Alabama uses Field Turf - no?
Shlon
Footballguy
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Anyone benching Julio this week? Just thinking of his poor splits, and playing the Cowboys who are pretty tough against the pass. If you have a good array of WRs is it crazy?
Rylenol
Footballguy
I've got to fill 3 WR slots with Wayne, Decker, Julio and Moore. Giving strong consideration to benching Julio for Indoor Moore. Don't think it's crazy.
Ketamine Dreams
Footballguy
Hmmmm... I've got 3 WRs to start and have Wayne, Colston, Steve Smith and Julio. I'd hate to miss a huge game from Julio but he could have a quiet game too....
steelerfan1
Footballguy
same thing here as i am looking at julio, lance moore or denerious moore.
must win this week, but i think if i sat julio and he put up a 8 for 150 and 1 type game i would need to go on some type of mental health watch.
going to go down with the ship and who play who i drafted high.
must win this week, but i think if i sat julio and he put up a 8 for 150 and 1 type game i would need to go on some type of mental health watch.
going to go down with the ship and who play who i drafted high.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I need a monster game out of Julio tonight to pull out a win. Like 150-ish and 2 TDs.
:(
At home and against the great Dallas corners... almost impossible.
:(
At home and against the great Dallas corners... almost impossible.
