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CJ Spiller vs T Richardson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter xenon
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smotherhook
Footballguy
TRich...........touches and the GL
Touchdown Syndrome
Footballguy
Richardson for me as well, no-brainer.
Safer pick and will be a "one-man-offense" workhorse back on a Turner offense. He should get exclusive GL looks.
His banged-up rookie season is my only concern.
I've been a Spiller fan since his rookie year, but can he be a workhorse? How much will his opportunities suffer with Manuel at QB?
Make no mistake, I'd actually take Spiller higher than most because I'm so impressed with his talent.
Safer pick and will be a "one-man-offense" workhorse back on a Turner offense. He should get exclusive GL looks.
His banged-up rookie season is my only concern.
I've been a Spiller fan since his rookie year, but can he be a workhorse? How much will his opportunities suffer with Manuel at QB?
Make no mistake, I'd actually take Spiller higher than most because I'm so impressed with his talent.
Touchdown Syndrome
Footballguy
"Higher floor", that's the phrase I was trying to think of, ha.
TRich has that advantage over Spiller, I agree.
I think both backs are among the handful of players with the potential to be the #1 overall player this year...but I like Trent's odds better.
Dynasty I'd say they are even. Spiller has very little mileage for a 26 year old.
Redraft spiller and I don't look back (even non ppr).
Trich is a special talent but spiller is on another level. Spiller has a chance to be in the ap echelon. He is scary good. He will get Tds this year, and my bet is he will eclipse 2500 combined rush/rec yards barring injury.
Redraft spiller and I don't look back (even non ppr).
Trich is a special talent but spiller is on another level. Spiller has a chance to be in the ap echelon. He is scary good. He will get Tds this year, and my bet is he will eclipse 2500 combined rush/rec yards barring injury.
Maybe. Depending on the source Richardson was born in 1990 or 1991. From a dynasty angle I'm more invested in him than any player in the NFL. Mostly acquiring him last year, when I thought he was born in 91. Thought I read something not long after a startup draft last year than 1990 was the accurate date. Be great if someone could confirm one way or the other.
Some might say what's the big deal? I'd agree so much in that whether he was born in 90 or 91 I'd have acquired him in the places I acquired him. More curious about how it relates to my future plans with him. My goal with him was to try and get 3-4 years and than sale him when he was around 25ish, before people started using his age and usage against him.
A guy that can't win the starting job over a 30+ year old RB can NEVER be on the AP echelon. NEVER.JMHO
That's an interesting solo-evaluation-angle to use considering that you can look to his on-field performances.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I had to look this up as I was shocked to hear Spiller is 26. I thought he only played 3 years at Clemson, but it turned out he played 4. Knowing that now, I could see but I wouldve still guess he was at oldest 25 (although he did just turn 26 barely a week ago).cstu said:
And as meno said, Ive seen Trent's birthdate still being listed as both 1990 and 1991. Dont know which is correct.
Tanner9919
Footballguy
Spiller and its not remotely close. long td runs, receptions, coaching staff hell bent on running, weaker division opponents in Dolphins,Jets,Pats defenses as opposed to Ravens, Browns and their upcoming defense, and the Steelers.
Richardson avg'd 3.6 per carry last year, but other Cle RBs avg'd 4.4, so what gives? of his 267 runs only two went for more than 20 yards.Spiller is FAR more likely to be the #1 back in FF than Richardson is, and its not close..
Richardson avg'd 3.6 per carry last year, but other Cle RBs avg'd 4.4, so what gives? of his 267 runs only two went for more than 20 yards.Spiller is FAR more likely to be the #1 back in FF than Richardson is, and its not close..
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Spiller's otf performance shows me the following:Leonidas said:
2010:: rush 74/283 rec 24/157
2011:: rush 107/561 rec 39/269
2012:: rush 207/1244 rec 43/459
exactly which of those statlines comes close to AP??
my point was also that if Spiller was such a special talent, he wouldn't have had trouble beating out FJax for the majority of the carries, let alone the starting gig. AP never had a problem beating out any of the other RBs on the squad... and don't say "well AP never had to compete with someone as good as FJax".
and Spiller wasn't even the start for the marority of games last year.
You can say you'd rather have Spiller over TRich, fine... but don't go trying to put him in AP's echelon. there's not enough solid supporting stats you can pull out to support that argument
Dork Matter
Footballguy
A few weeks ago, I traded Trent Richardson and Jermaine Gresham for CJ Spiller, Russell Wilson and Ryan Williams.
10-team contract league with $100 cap, 1/2/2/1/flex/1/1, 10 bench spots. QBs score 6point TDs, 5-pt bonuses at 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing/receiving. Contracts can be up to five years in length, but cutting a player early results in a (somewhat discounted) cap hit for remaining years on the contract. Most teams in the league entered the year with "dead" cap dollars from players cut last year, it's just part of roster management in the league. There's going to be a lot of money competing for RBs this year, and my available cash was low enough I fear not being able to get decent free agent RBs in our auction later this month.
I signed Richardson last year at $9.60/year for five years, so four years left going into 2013. Gresham was $1/year for three more years. Spiller is $7/year for two years, Wilson is $1/yr for four years, and Williams is $5/yr for three years.
I had Aaron Rodgers for $17/year for four years and Matt Ryan at $1/yr for four years. I sent Matt Ryan to a third-party team that was QB-needy in exchange for Ridley. Then I traded T-Rich to the Spiller ownerand got back a QB I'm high on, got rid of Gresham, and took Williams (who I'll have to cut). The Spiller owner is rebuilding and was willing to assume T-Rich's riskiness and give up Wilson, in exchange for gaining a roster spot and ridding himself of the Williams contract.
Taken together, the two trades got me an additional starter at RB (Spiller + Ridley vs. T-Rich) with a swap of equivalent QBs and a slightly unfavorable exchange of two bench players.
TL;DR - even though the deal cost me a couple dollars, I was happier having a 2-year contract on Spiller than a 4-year contract on T-Rich, since I'm very worried about T-Rich's injury risk.
10-team contract league with $100 cap, 1/2/2/1/flex/1/1, 10 bench spots. QBs score 6point TDs, 5-pt bonuses at 300 yds passing or 100 yds rushing/receiving. Contracts can be up to five years in length, but cutting a player early results in a (somewhat discounted) cap hit for remaining years on the contract. Most teams in the league entered the year with "dead" cap dollars from players cut last year, it's just part of roster management in the league. There's going to be a lot of money competing for RBs this year, and my available cash was low enough I fear not being able to get decent free agent RBs in our auction later this month.
I signed Richardson last year at $9.60/year for five years, so four years left going into 2013. Gresham was $1/year for three more years. Spiller is $7/year for two years, Wilson is $1/yr for four years, and Williams is $5/yr for three years.
I had Aaron Rodgers for $17/year for four years and Matt Ryan at $1/yr for four years. I sent Matt Ryan to a third-party team that was QB-needy in exchange for Ridley. Then I traded T-Rich to the Spiller ownerand got back a QB I'm high on, got rid of Gresham, and took Williams (who I'll have to cut). The Spiller owner is rebuilding and was willing to assume T-Rich's riskiness and give up Wilson, in exchange for gaining a roster spot and ridding himself of the Williams contract.
Taken together, the two trades got me an additional starter at RB (Spiller + Ridley vs. T-Rich) with a swap of equivalent QBs and a slightly unfavorable exchange of two bench players.
TL;DR - even though the deal cost me a couple dollars, I was happier having a 2-year contract on Spiller than a 4-year contract on T-Rich, since I'm very worried about T-Rich's injury risk.
I have the option of keeping T. Rich and giving up a 3rd rd pick or keeping J. Charles and giving up a 2nd rd pick in my league. I am drafting 2nd overall this year and am seriously thinking about keeping T. Rich at this point figuring Charles or Foster will be there for me at #2.
Back to the question at hand...Richardson is playing in a runningback system with a runningback minded OC. He has a solid and young Defense which should keep games closer than some of the Bills blowouts. But I think the biggest advantage T. Rich has over Spiller is the Offensive line and the fact there is no #2 runningback in the stables waiting for touches, (ala Fred Jackson).
I drafted T. Rich last year in the 3rd round hoping he would pan out with a rookie QB and unproven WR's. I was blessed when the coaching changes took place and Turner landed in Cleveland as OC.
Back to the question at hand...Richardson is playing in a runningback system with a runningback minded OC. He has a solid and young Defense which should keep games closer than some of the Bills blowouts. But I think the biggest advantage T. Rich has over Spiller is the Offensive line and the fact there is no #2 runningback in the stables waiting for touches, (ala Fred Jackson).
I drafted T. Rich last year in the 3rd round hoping he would pan out with a rookie QB and unproven WR's. I was blessed when the coaching changes took place and Turner landed in Cleveland as OC.
I don't mean to be rude but this is a ridiculous statement. Spiller is an amazing back who has outplayed fjax whenever he has been on the field over the last 3 seasons but one thing he cannot overcome is coaching idiocy. Chan gailey and his ######ed disciples couldn't see spiller talent and the need to feature him if their lives depended on it. How is that spillers fault?And btw fjax was a great Rb 2 years ago. He was one of the top backs in the nfl and on his way to a phenomenal season before injury derailed himfamousb said:
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I never said Spiller wasn't a good back - but he's NOT Adrian Peterson. If he was, even Chan Gailey would have been able to recognize his talent - and having Gailey as a HC is a weak excuse - AP had Brad Childress, but somehow he managed to get noticed and succeeded his first threeyears...
Spiller is more of a Chris Johnson than an AP; and that's what i'm disputing. If you want to put him in AP's echelon, that's saying you'd trade AP for him straight up. You willing to do that???
AllVolUT
Footballguy
Have both in my top 5. Choosing one over the other depends on the league IMO.
TD-heavy league, I'm rolling with Richardson. Barring injury of course, I can't envision a scenario without double digit TDs.
Standard-performance league, I'm likely choosing Spiller. Barring injury of course, I'm expecting 2000+ total yards. On a per game basis dating back over the past two years, Spiller has averaged close to a TD a game when Jackson's been out (10tds in 13 games without FJax; ~0.77tds/game). Granted, Jackson is still there but I expect the usage this year to more closely emulate those games Spiller played in without Jackson, as opposed to the time Spiller spent spelling Jackson in 2011/2012.
TD-heavy league, I'm rolling with Richardson. Barring injury of course, I can't envision a scenario without double digit TDs.
Standard-performance league, I'm likely choosing Spiller. Barring injury of course, I'm expecting 2000+ total yards. On a per game basis dating back over the past two years, Spiller has averaged close to a TD a game when Jackson's been out (10tds in 13 games without FJax; ~0.77tds/game). Granted, Jackson is still there but I expect the usage this year to more closely emulate those games Spiller played in without Jackson, as opposed to the time Spiller spent spelling Jackson in 2011/2012.
carverlee
Footballguy
If talent dictated all, Barry Sanders, Walter Payton and Bo Jackson would have been the #1 fantasy scoring RB's every season they played. AP stands alone in physical talent, granted.
But that doesn't have any bearing on what Spiller can or can't be. He does have talent and a damn good situation in which a 30yr old RB put up excellent numbers. Spiller's ceiling is RB#1.
Fantasy football is about finding the next AP. I would never compare spillers body of work to ap that would be ridiculous. I would also never claim that spiller is the same type of back as AP. one is a power back and the other is more speedy and elusive (although his yac last year was quite impressive and only behind ap).
With that said, what I was saying is that spiller in his own way has the ability to put up a historic season of production this year.
They are different backs but equally lethal in my opinion. Because of ap's body of work I would not trade him for spiller, but I don't think it's absolutely crazy to do that.
Ap is coming off a historic season in which he almost broke dickerson's record. Every back that has ever rushed for 2000 yards in a season in the history of the nfl has regressed significantly in production the following year.
I actually think its a good bet to bet that spiller will put up more fantasy number than ap this year providing that its true what Doug marrone is saying (ride him until he throws up or taps out).
Oh and comparing spiller to Chris Johnson is criminal. Cj2k is a one trick pony. Speed. Cj goes down when touched.
Spiller has speed but is also is tough as nails evidenced by his lofty yac numbers from 2012. Only ap had more yac last year than spiller.
Please don't make that comparison to cj2k again it doesn't make you look knowledgable.
Spiller has speed but is also is tough as nails evidenced by his lofty yac numbers from 2012. Only ap had more yac last year than spiller.
Please don't make that comparison to cj2k again it doesn't make you look knowledgable.
And IMO spiller is the clear cut #2 Rb that Hoyle be drafted after ap this year, not Doug Martin, not Charles (he and Charles are equal talents but spiller is more durable), not foster, not trich, and not lynch.
Of course this is all subjective and my opinion. This year I had the luck of landing the first pick and I felt obligated to draft ap. but if I had the 2 pick is pick spiller and laugh my way to the bank.
Of course this is all subjective and my opinion. This year I had the luck of landing the first pick and I felt obligated to draft ap. but if I had the 2 pick is pick spiller and laugh my way to the bank.
disagree.
as someone who has watched both CJ and Spiller since their college days, i will say Spiller to CJ is a MUCH more accurate comparison than the one of Spiller to AP which i originally disputed.
I think you are being very short-memoried in what CJ can, and has done. CJ is a 2,000 yd back. Spiller is not. You can talk motivation and desire difference, but CJ has been to the top of the mountain and had nothing left to prove. Spiller hasn't even gotten over a speed bump yet.
if you want to discuss knowledge, i could go on for days to levels of detail about stats and averages that are much more detailed than the generalization of
Things to the fact of Dickerson is actually the only RB to ever post back-to-back 1800+ yard seasons, let alone post 1,800+ 3 times.
OJ Simpson is also the only RB to post a 2,000 yd season while having his career start off 'slow' in that it took him 4 years to post his first 1,000 yd season... so the odds of Spiller being "special", especially to the level of AP or even CJ are not very good.
<_<
and if Blount isn't enough said...
i believe their ER is flawed in how it looks at "missed tackles". The measure of missed tackles in and of itself can be flawed. Is running through a tackle "elusive"? what happens when you fake the guy so bad, and outrun him to the point where he can't even reach you, does that count as a missed tackle?
Watch a CJ2K highlight, there are plenty of guys who miss tackles because they are out of position to react to his first step. Does that mean he's not elusive because the D isn't even in the position to make a tackle?
At the end of the day there is no right or wrong here. Only the 2013 season playing itself out will determine that.
I still stand by my opinion of spiller over trich hands down in redraft and that spiller is a once a decade talent.
cstu
Footballguy
26 isn't old, but he's quickly reaching the magical 28 where a lot of owners don't want to touch a RB.
This is news to me about Trent, but there are a bunch of places listing his age as 1990.
Team ROFLCOPTERS
Footballguy
Just how great is Richardson? Every recent Alabamba RB looks great coming out. Richardson had a very pedestrian 3.6 YPC while everyone else on Cleveland averaged 4.4. That's staggering, even with an injury.
Besides, everyones negative on Spiller is that he never got goal line carries in the past. We don't know that to be true with the new regime. It can only go up, and Spiller was the better back even without the carries inside the 5.
Besides, everyones negative on Spiller is that he never got goal line carries in the past. We don't know that to be true with the new regime. It can only go up, and Spiller was the better back even without the carries inside the 5.
I'm glad you said it I watched Trent Last yr and he is not very good to me. Maybe it was the injuries just seems like he has poor vision I think he's one of those backs who is always gonna avg about 3.8 yds a carry. He reminds me of mark Ingram he seems like a worn runner already!
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
gimme spiller in re-draft.
Dyno, hard to argue the age, but Spiller is a low mileage NFL RB
Dyno, hard to argue the age, but Spiller is a low mileage NFL RB
Banger
Footballguy
This type of "analysis" is extremely myopic and flawed. Is your point that the other rbs are better than Richardson? Richardson had a startling 77% of carries in his rookie season while missing the last game of the season and playing through significant injury. He had 267 carries and the #2 had 65 carries. Do you think thats relevant? When Montario Hardesty steps on the field do you think the defense is thinking this guy is going to gash us so let's put 8 in the box? i always laugh when i read about guys ypc being some kind of predictor. Its not a static figure and often varies greatly year to year. There are so many variables that go into a players ypc...their role, their health, their knowledge of the offense, the line, play calling, scheme, qb play, other weapons in the offense, etc....many of these factors have improved, some significantly in Richardson's favor this year.
He's got zero competition for touches, he's got an all time great OC that loves him, is going to focus the offense around him and give him among the most touches in the league. The only keeping him from being a top back is injury.
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
So T-Rich guys aren't worried at all by the fact that he has a significant injury history and has already been injured this year?
Spiller has been injured once with a freak shoulder injury and he came back the next game and was still dominant.
Richardson is hurt all the time. I don't know how anyone could think they can count on him to be a workhorse. His talent isn't even close to Spiller's either.
Spiller has been injured once with a freak shoulder injury and he came back the next game and was still dominant.
Richardson is hurt all the time. I don't know how anyone could think they can count on him to be a workhorse. His talent isn't even close to Spiller's either.
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
thanks for chiming in.famousb said:
Man of Zen
Footballguy
If anything, Richardson already played a full (and productive) season through an injury the likes of which routinely sidelines most backs. This is in part because the team really, really relies on him (and he knows it and accepts the role), and in part because he's one seriously tough mother.
All RB's get hurt, but TRich seems to be heading toward the end of the preseason at 100%. If anything, his history with regards to injury says to me you can rely on him to be a workhorse far more than you can rely on most backs.
Keith Lewis
Footballguy
Richardson is considered the most talented RB out of college since AP. I think he is more talented than Spiller. Also he gets hurt more because he is a workhorse, if spiller carries it 20 times a game he will end up on IR.
Totally agree. That's exactly what I already said in this thread, even, I think...some people seem to read selectively.
I probably won't own Richardson in a single league this year due to my draft positions (2nd-4th) but if I had a middle or late-ish first round pick I'd LOVE to see Richardson there. (standard scoring redrafts)
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Yeah, it kind of ignores the fact that Lynch and Jackson were both ahead of Spiller his rookie year (until Spiller's talent made it obvious that Lynch was expendable). Jackson was the de facto starter then not only because he was a very good RB, but also because he is one of the best pass blocking RBs in the league. And with Gailey's pass all the time offense, that was crucial. Spiller was terrible at pass blocking but has since upgraded to "won't get the QB killed....probably".
In 2011, Fred Jackson was the best RB in the league up until he got hurt. Yeah, that's right. The BEST RB in the league. Through 9 games, he had 917 yards rushing, 6 TDs and 392 yards receiving. Peterson, by comparison, had 846 yards rushing, 10 TDs and 127 yards receiving. Jackson was absolutely dominant before his 2011 injury. To say that Spiller should have beaten out the best RB in football is silly.
So of course Gailey gave Jackson a chance to earn back his starting position. But Spiller's talent and another Fred injury gave Spiller the chance to show that he really is elite as well. He did something last year that only 5 other RBs in history have done: rush for over 6.0 yards per carry with over 200 rushes.
This year, Jackson has clearly lost what he once had. Spiller is the unquestioned #1 in Buffalo. To pretend that any of the factors that limited Spiller previously still exist is fantasy.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
If you think that 950 yards at 3.6 ypc is a productive season, then well, good luck with that 5th round production in the first round. Spiller had 300 more yards on about 60 less carries.
Spiller is much less of an injury risk because he just doesn't take the same hits a guy like Richardson does. He's one of the most elusive RBs since Barry Sanders. He doesn't take direct hits. He can do more with less carries. He doesn't need the same number of carries that a guy like Richardson does because while CJ is snapping off a 50 yard TD run, Richardson is plodding away at 3.5 yards at a time down the field. Spiller had 12 runs that were 20+ yards last year and 5 that were 40+. Richardson had 2 and 0. Spiller is simply a much more explosive back.
And just how elusive is Spiller? Let's let ProFootballFocus explain:
It's hard to get hurt when guys can't even touch you.
Precisely what I was trying to explain to famousb. Someone who claims to have so much football knowledge surely would know that that "30+ year old Rb" that spiller "couldn't" beat out (false, he just wasn't given the opportunity) just so happened to be a beast of a Rb and tops in the league before that injury opened the door for spiller.
A lot of nonsense on these boards.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Wouldn't a rookie QB actually benefit a RB as the team runs the ball more and the QB looks to his dumpoff safety valve a lot?
And isn't the new coaching staff the one that said that they were going to use Spiller until he pukes?
And what does a healthy FJax have to do with anything? He has looked bad in camp. Slow, tentative and no burst. I love Jackson, but his age and injuries have left him nothing more than a guy that will come in to take a few carries while CJ gets a breather. That's it.
