silentcoach
Footballguy
Either is fine, but if we're splitting hairs, I'd go with whomever "seems" to have the easier sos.
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CJ Spiller vs T Richardson (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter xenon
- Start date
Man of Zen
Footballguy
And the other flip side to the speedback vs powerback thing, with respect to injuries, is that with a mild ankle sprain, or a slightly tweaked knee, a TRich says "ouch" a lot and loses maybe .1 or .2 ypc while he grinds it out.
A Spiller has the same injury, and he's all but useless. Which probably doesn't mean he struggles in the game, it probably means they just go ahead and sit him out and let his perfectly good replacements grind it out and hope the fast elusive guy heals up.
I just don't see the injury thing as a compelling reason to pick Spiller over Richardson. The injury rolls every year are filled with fast, elusive guys. Spiller's a top half of the first round pick to me, so I'm hardly down on him. I just can't see any reason whatsoever to expect anything but monster #'s out of Richardson.
A Spiller has the same injury, and he's all but useless. Which probably doesn't mean he struggles in the game, it probably means they just go ahead and sit him out and let his perfectly good replacements grind it out and hope the fast elusive guy heals up.
I just don't see the injury thing as a compelling reason to pick Spiller over Richardson. The injury rolls every year are filled with fast, elusive guys. Spiller's a top half of the first round pick to me, so I'm hardly down on him. I just can't see any reason whatsoever to expect anything but monster #'s out of Richardson.
You both are openly stating Spiller was the 3rd best RB on his team, but now all of a sudden he's on the tier with the best RB in football today? That's talkig out both sides of your face... Spiller didn't magically get that much better in two years. Is he good, yes. Is he AP, no. That was my point, and the two of you keep trying to argue something else but keeping making statements that do not support your own argument.Sure, I can understand your choice of Spiller over TRich, and I accept that. Personally I'd rather have TRich, but that is a completely different debate.
My sole point is, Spiller is NOT, nor will he ever be, considered on the same level of RB greatness that AP is on. Even if Spiller puts up 3 straight years of 1800 yds rushing (highly, highly doubtful) before he hits that mystical age 30 season and loses a step, he won't even be a 7,500 yd career RB. That puts him squarely at around the #50 all time rushing RB (CJ2K is currently at 6,888 and #57).
With 1,150 yds this year, AP will be at 10k and #28 overall between Ricky Williams and Clinton Portis.
Put perspective on what you are trying to profess. Spiller needs to do what NO other back in the history of the NFL has ever done to even be put in the same echelon as Terrell Davis, let alone AP.
silentcoach
Footballguy
There is a difference between TALENT and PRODUCTION/OPPORTUNITY.
Maybe you can argue Spiller will not PRODUCE like AP for his career, but to say he is not as TALENTED and that he will not produce this year is a different argument.
All we care about is THIS year (for non dynasty purposes). How will Spiller do THIS year based on opportunity AND talent.
But I get that you were trying to rebut his CAREER stats when compared to the "greats," which I think is not as relevant, just for this year.
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Revo
Footballguy
Besides LT in '07, what Turner RB has been a "fantasy gold mine" in the last 10 years?
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
5 other RBs in history have averaged 6.0 yards or more per carry with 200+ carries. 5. Ever, Seems pretty elite to me.
Your definition of elite is weird.
Also, as I pointed out, Spiller stands alone in some advanced stats. The number of missed tackles he created last year as a percentage of carries was totally insane. Nobody with a significant number of carries has even been CLOSE to him since PFF started tracking that stat 5 years ago. Adrian Peterson's best is almost 25% lower than Spiller's.
The guy is Barry Sanders 2.0 and you're too willfully blind to see it.
And no, neither one of us stated that Spiller was the third best RB on his team. Where he was on the depth chart was not an indication of his talent as a runner. If you bothered to actually read and understand the reasons as to why he was where he was on the depth chart you'd understand.
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With the exception of Ryan Matthews ...every RB he's been involved with ...
http://www.profootballweekly.com/2012/08/19/turner-has-had-many-productive-running-backs
bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
yeah most people forget that most of LTs treuly great seasons came with Cam Cameron at OC, even though Norv installed the Offense in SD I believe LTs rookie season before moving on (IIRC)
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
They are my #2 and #3 RB's this season.
Spiller has huge upside in the high tempo offense, and despite some people thinking he is injury prone he has been one of the most durable RB's around. He probably won't be used at the goal-line though, that is the only rub i can think of with him.
Trent is a legit 3 down RB who will get all the goal-line carries. His injury history is also overblown (a couple minor knee scopes and broken ribs), still didn't miss games.
I think the best way to decide between the two is to flip a coin, you really can't lose either way.
Spiller has huge upside in the high tempo offense, and despite some people thinking he is injury prone he has been one of the most durable RB's around. He probably won't be used at the goal-line though, that is the only rub i can think of with him.
Trent is a legit 3 down RB who will get all the goal-line carries. His injury history is also overblown (a couple minor knee scopes and broken ribs), still didn't miss games.
I think the best way to decide between the two is to flip a coin, you really can't lose either way.
Revo
Footballguy
Leading rusher with Norv as HC, last 10 years:
2004 -- Zereoue, 425 yds
2005 - L. Jordan, 1025 yds
2007 - LT, 1451 yds
2008 - LT 1110 yds
2009 - LT, 730 yds
2010 - Tolbert, 735 yds
2011 - Mathews, 1091 yds
2012 - Mathews, 707 yds
One "gold" back (LT '07), three solid backs (Jordan '05, LT '08, Mathews '11), and four disastrous campaigns for fantasy players.
I'm not saying the guy doesn't know RBs, but to just claim T-Rich will be a "goldmine" because his HC is Norv seems outdated at best.
Change your stat to Norv as an OC, not HC. He's a great OC, bad HC...
Production is the ONLY measure of an athlete. Guys don't get into the HOF based off of "advanced stats" like how few blades of grass their foot touches per step...And if you want to put Spiller in the AP echelon THIS year, then its an easy question... You willing to trade AP straight up for Spiller?
silentcoach
Footballguy
This is the first year, he will get the OPPORTUNITY to produce. All you can do is take an educated guess and roll with it.
To say he will NOT produce because he has not done so in the past is an UNREASONABLE argument.
That is almost like arguing that A.Rodgers would be a crappy QB because he sat under Favre for a few years.
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So... No, correct?This is the first year, he will get the OPPORTUNITY to produce. All you can do is take an educated guess and roll with it.To say he will NOT produce because he has not done so in the past is an UNREASONABLE argument.
That is almost like arguing that A.Rodgers would be a crappy QB because he sat under Favre for a few years.
silentcoach
Footballguy
No, but i never said i was taking Spiller over AP. Just pointing out the weaknesses in your argument, which were glaring.So... No, correct?This is the first year, he will get the OPPORTUNITY to produce. All you can do is take an educated guess and roll with it.To say he will NOT produce because he has not done so in the past is an UNREASONABLE argument.
That is almost like arguing that A.Rodgers would be a crappy QB because he sat under Favre for a few years.
Would I take PManning over ARodgers on his first year? No.
Would I take him now? The conversation is different--same rationale.
Do not dismiss Spiller now when the conversation can quickly change.
None of your posts reflect the fact that Spiller is finally getting an opportunity and that he CAN be as good as AP from HERE ON OUT--that is all.
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Actually my arguments were spot on for the point I was trying to make, and your "no" answer clarifies my point.No, but i never said i was taking Spiller over AP. Just pointing out the weaknesses in your argument, which were glaring.So... No, correct?This is the first year, he will get the OPPORTUNITY to produce. All you can do is take an educated guess and roll with it.To say he will NOT produce because he has not done so in the past is an UNREASONABLE argument.
That is almost like arguing that A.Rodgers would be a crappy QB because he sat under Favre for a few years.
Would I take PManning over ARodgers on his first year? No.
Would I take him now? The conversation is different--same rationale.
Do not dismiss Spiller now when the conversation can quickly change.
There was obviously just a noncomprehension of the exact point which I was trying to make...
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
silentcoach
Footballguy
Here is my stand on the issue regarding spiller.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
.
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Never said Spiller shouldn't be top 3 or 4, or that he couldn't be elite... I think there is a chance he could produce like a #3 pick should (though I'd still personally take TRich over him, but would even more prefer to trade down).Here is my stand on the issue regarding spiller.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
But putting him at 3/4 is not putting him at #1. There is a difference.
playin4beer
Footballguy
Had them both last year (along with Foster) could only keep one player...
I kept Spiller
He's the only RB that has reminded me of Barry Sanders since Barry Sanders...
I kept Spiller
He's the only RB that has reminded me of Barry Sanders since Barry Sanders...
silentcoach
Footballguy
Putting him at 3 shows there is a PROBABILITY he can end at 1--that is all that matters.Never said Spiller shouldn't be top 3 or 4, or that he couldn't be elite... I think there is a chance he could produce like a #3 pick should (though I'd still personally take TRich over him, but would even more prefer to trade down).Here is my stand on the issue regarding spiller.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
But putting him at 3/4 is not putting him at #1. There is a difference.
You do not rank someone at 3, and expect "just top 3 and below." You place people in slots and expect ranges. Just because I have Peterson 1 does not mean I expect him to be 1. At worst, I hope Peterson is not worse than top 6, etc.
Even showing that Spiller can be top 3 or 4 is INSANE respect for someone who is *finally* getting their shot to prove the world what he can do.
The reason he is currently at 3 in my book, is because, we can only GUESS as to how good Spiller can be. This "guessing" is what makes him 3 and not 1 or 2.
My ranking of 3 does not suggest that i do not think he will end up as 1. I hope that makes sense--it did in my head
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GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Peterson has finished as the #1 fantasy RB exactly once. That's not to say that he hasn't been unbelievably good, but to pretend that nobody else has a chance of unseating him is silliness. I don't have issue with him as #1 due to his track record and the safety of the pick, but this pedestal you've put him on is a bit much.Never said Spiller shouldn't be top 3 or 4, or that he couldn't be elite... I think there is a chance he could produce like a #3 pick should (though I'd still personally take TRich over him, but would even more prefer to trade down).Here is my stand on the issue regarding spiller.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
But putting him at 3/4 is not putting him at #1. There is a difference.
fightingillini
Footballguy
Thank god I have both in my auction keeper league 
In a redraft PPR, I take Spiller, but it's close. Richardson is going to carry the ball more and likely score more TDs, but Spiller just has too much upside. Spiller could easily go for over 2000 all purpose yards if given enough carries. He can do that with just 270 carries and 60 receptions......just over 20 touches a game.
In a redraft PPR, I take Spiller, but it's close. Richardson is going to carry the ball more and likely score more TDs, but Spiller just has too much upside. Spiller could easily go for over 2000 all purpose yards if given enough carries. He can do that with just 270 carries and 60 receptions......just over 20 touches a game.
Actually I believe AP is going to wind up coming down to about 1400 rushing yards this year, and will finish around RB7 or 8. History tells me as much.Still doesn't mean I'm going to trade him for any other single RB straight up. He's still a tier by himself, much like people considered Foster to be on a tier by himself like 2/3 years ago. When there is an easy consensus #1, that #1 is on their own tier in value and you need to respect that and utilize it to your advantage.Peterson has finished as the #1 fantasy RB exactly once. That's not to say that he hasn't been unbelievably good, but to pretend that nobody else has a chance of unseating him is silliness. I don't have issue with him as #1 due to his track record and the safety of the pick, but this pedestal you've put him on is a bit much.Never said Spiller shouldn't be top 3 or 4, or that he couldn't be elite... I think there is a chance he could produce like a #3 pick should (though I'd still personally take TRich over him, but would even more prefer to trade down).But putting him at 3/4 is not putting him at #1. There is a difference.Here is my stand on the issue regarding spiller.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
If you believe AP will finish as RB7 or RB8, and you honestly believe that, you should be more than willing to trade him straight up for several of the other RB's.Actually I believe AP is going to wind up coming down to about 1400 rushing yards this year, and will finish around RB7 or 8. History tells me as much.Still doesn't mean I'm going to trade him for any other single RB straight up. He's still a tier by himself, much like people considered Foster to be on a tier by himself like 2/3 years ago. When there is an easy consensus #1, that #1 is on their own tier in value and you need to respect that and utilize it to your advantage.Peterson has finished as the #1 fantasy RB exactly once. That's not to say that he hasn't been unbelievably good, but to pretend that nobody else has a chance of unseating him is silliness. I don't have issue with him as #1 due to his track record and the safety of the pick, but this pedestal you've put him on is a bit much.Never said Spiller shouldn't be top 3 or 4, or that he couldn't be elite... I think there is a chance he could produce like a #3 pick should (though I'd still personally take TRich over him, but would even more prefer to trade down).But putting him at 3/4 is not putting him at #1. There is a difference.Here is my stand on the issue regarding spiller.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
Man of Zen
Footballguy
Of those backs, 3 and a half were mired in committees, and of the ones that weren't, they produced seasons of 1600 yfs/11 td, 2000/18, 1500/12, and if you want to count Gore's season when Norv was OC, 2200/9.
I say three and a half because Ryan Mathews took over the feature role the second half of his 1000 yd year, and of course was so unbelievably dynamic and productive that he became a top ten pick the following year.
If you have any intention whatsoever of trying to predict TRich based on Norv's past, the entirety of the question becomes this: do you expect him to be a feature back, or part of a committee?
Because his backs that have come anywhere near approaching the kind of usage that would get them considered feature backs have posted average seasons of 1750 yfs/14 td's over a quarter century of coaching. You see Trent splitting time?
Man of Zen
Footballguy
That sentiment makes no sense. Why should you be willing to trade anything straight up when you can reasonably expect to trade it for more than that? That's like telling somebody who expects Alex Smith to finish as the top rated QB that they ought to draft him first.If you believe AP will finish as RB7 or RB8, and you honestly believe that, you should be more than willing to trade him straight up for several of the other RB's.Actually I believe AP is going to wind up coming down to about 1400 rushing yards this year, and will finish around RB7 or 8. History tells me as much.Still doesn't mean I'm going to trade him for any other single RB straight up. He's still a tier by himself, much like people considered Foster to be on a tier by himself like 2/3 years ago. When there is an easy consensus #1, that #1 is on their own tier in value and you need to respect that and utilize it to your advantage.Peterson has finished as the #1 fantasy RB exactly once. That's not to say that he hasn't been unbelievably good, but to pretend that nobody else has a chance of unseating him is silliness. I don't have issue with him as #1 due to his track record and the safety of the pick, but this pedestal you've put him on is a bit much.Never said Spiller shouldn't be top 3 or 4, or that he couldn't be elite... I think there is a chance he could produce like a #3 pick should (though I'd still personally take TRich over him, but would even more prefer to trade down).But putting him at 3/4 is not putting him at #1. There is a difference.Here is my stand on the issue regarding spiller.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
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Why would I do that if I know I can get more value than that from someone who doesn't believe he'll come back down to earth this year? I could trade him for multiple players, then trade one of them (plus maybe another player) for an RB I like better. It's not just about what I value players at, its about what I know other people value players at. That's good management and maximizing the value of the assets you own.If you believe AP will finish as RB7 or RB8, and you honestly believe that, you should be more than willing to trade him straight up for several of the other RB's.Actually I believe AP is going to wind up coming down to about 1400 rushing yards this year, and will finish around RB7 or 8. History tells me as much.Still doesn't mean I'm going to trade him for any other single RB straight up. He's still a tier by himself, much like people considered Foster to be on a tier by himself like 2/3 years ago. When there is an easy consensus #1, that #1 is on their own tier in value and you need to respect that and utilize it to your advantage.Peterson has finished as the #1 fantasy RB exactly once. That's not to say that he hasn't been unbelievably good, but to pretend that nobody else has a chance of unseating him is silliness. I don't have issue with him as #1 due to his track record and the safety of the pick, but this pedestal you've put him on is a bit much.Never said Spiller shouldn't be top 3 or 4, or that he couldn't be elite... I think there is a chance he could produce like a #3 pick should (though I'd still personally take TRich over him, but would even more prefer to trade down).But putting him at 3/4 is not putting him at #1. There is a difference.Here is my stand on the issue regarding spiller.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
This thread's title is CJ Spiller vs T Richardson. What it is not titled, is CJ Spiller vs A Peterson. Unless you missed that and mistakenly entered this thread, quit trolling.Never said Spiller shouldn't be top 3 or 4, or that he couldn't be elite... I think there is a chance he could produce like a #3 pick should (though I'd still personally take TRich over him, but would even more prefer to trade down).Here is my stand on the issue regarding spiller.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
But putting him at 3/4 is not putting him at #1. There is a difference.
FYI, I'm not the one who introduced AP into the discussion... Now go back and try to figure out what trolling really is before you try to act like an internet tough guy again.This thread's title is CJ Spiller vs T Richardson. What it is not titled, is CJ Spiller vs A Peterson. Unless you missed that and mistakenly entered this thread, quit trolling.Never said Spiller shouldn't be top 3 or 4, or that he couldn't be elite... I think there is a chance he could produce like a #3 pick should (though I'd still personally take TRich over him, but would even more prefer to trade down).But putting him at 3/4 is not putting him at #1. There is a difference.Here is my stand on the issue regarding spiller.
Spiller is a TALENT that finally has the OPPORTUNITY to be a beast--yes, even as good as AP.
Just because he does not done so in the past does not mean he will not become a great PRODUCER--as quickly as this year.
Where would I rank him? Either 3 or 4 this year. That's pretty elite isnt it?
Chaka
Footballguy
Seriously:
2002 - Ricky Williams 2,216 total yards 17 TDs
2003 - Ricky Williams 1,723 total yards 10 TDs
2006 - Frank Gore 2,180 total yards 9 TDs
And Revo's other numbers are disingenuous as they don't include receiving yards or TDs
2005 - Jordan 1,586 total yards 11 TDs
2007 - LT 1,949 total yards 18 TDs
2008 - LT 1,536 total yards 12 TDs
2009 - LT 884 total yards 12 TDs
2010 - Tolbert 951 total yards 11 TDs (Matthews had 823 and 7 TDs)
2011 - Matthews 1,546 total yards 6 TDs (14 games)
I think anyone would like those numbers on their fantasy team, no?
2004 and 2012 were a mess, no doubt but every other year he has produced a very good to phenomenal RB.
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Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Lynch seems like more of a top 5 RB, or at least has consistently gone there in the drafts Ive done, but in PPR I guess it would be closer.xenon said:
Better comparison, regardless of scoring system, might be McCoy vs Spiller or Trent. Im actually starting to lean towards McCoy here (I play non-PPR, fwiw)
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
It always skips my mind that TRich had 51 receptions last season, good for 7th best amongst RBs and better than Spiller's 43. He's not just your prototypical GL back but also has good hands. I usually find myself targeting TRich if I'm in the correct spot (and McCoy is gone).
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FF EGGHEAD
Footballguy
Very well said! In m y non ppr league I am sitting at 7th and can't wait to call T Rich for my pick!
smapdi
Footballguy
You didn't watch too many Bills games I see. All you have to do is sit down and actually watch Spiller play- it's obvious when you see him run, that he is a special talent. After this season, he will be mentioned in the same breath as Peterson; I have no doubt about that.
The lack of carries was not Spiller's fault at all. He dominated whenever he got carries. Chan Gailey, not a NFL defense, held back Spiller last season. He was criminally underused by Gailey last season & that is why he is no longer the coach. He had some sick Ryan Fitzpatrick fetish and constantly put the ball in Fitz's ill-equipped hands. Gailey treated Fitz like he was a Drew Brees or Peyton Manning- QB's that go out and win you games with their arms. The only problem with that is the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick is Ryan Fitzpatrick. He is a "game manager" at best on his good days.
Just look at what Spiller managed to do last season (1200 yds @ 6.0 ypc) when he was neglected by a terrible coaching staff/offensive scheme.
Spiller went into week 17 averaging 6.5 ypc but an uninspired performance by the offense dragged him back down to 6.0 (24 car / 59 yds). He averaged 7.2 ypc on his first 72 carries.
Gailey limited him to 15 or fewer carries in 10 games last season yet he still finished 8th in the NFL with 1244 yards. That was after he opened up the season averaging over 10.0 ypc the first two games.
With that said, Gailey is gone. Bills' new OC, Nathaniel Hackett, had this to say about Spiller: "It's real simple: We're going to give him the ball until he throws up... He's either got to tap out or throw up on the field. Let's just put it that way."
You Spiller haters , please keep spreading your message. I hope plenty of people listen to you so I can draft Spiller with my 1st pick.
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