[DYNASTY] Sleeper List (1 Viewer)

[FUBAR]

Two buy-low candidates who might be worth getting if you have the luxury are LenDale White and Vince Young.

White is nothing more than a joke to many owners who think Javon Ringer is going to run him out of town. This is possible if White doesn't stay healthy, in shape, or focused at being what he's capable. But based on talent, Ringer isn't on the same plane as White - and I personally have never been a LenDale White fan (I let loose a long string of curses when he was drafted). But I personally believe that his value is at a good point to acquire him with Chris Johnson's breakout, the addition of Ringer, and the fact White fumbled the game away against Baltimore. The fact White is in much better shape and really steamed about his mistake is a good sign.

Let's remember that Chris Johnson is a dynamic player, but I doubt the Titans think he's a 15 carry per game back. I would think the injury in the Ravens game validates that notion and the resulting addition of Ringer was a reaction to it as much as White's play.

If White comes into camp in great shape and plays like he's capable, the Titans will not hesitate to feed him the ball and use Johnson as the change of pace and slot guy. Not that Johnson won't get his, but I could see White really doing a lot more in the 4th QTR of games and busting runs of 15-20 yards more often than we'd ever expect at this point.

Young is more of a buy low and sit on him for a year. I remember Broncos and Steelers fans who thought Elway and Bradshaw were going to be unmitigated busts. If there is a team that is going to seriously give Vince Young a chance to grow up and be the kind of man and player he should be, it will be Tennessee because of a) the investment they made in him and the potential they saw as a rookie and b) because Jeff Fisher is a straight up kind of coach who will look a player in the eye and say "this is how you are messing up and this is what I expect from you." A lot of coaches either play games are communicate these things in stupid ways that alienate or confuse their players. Fisher won't do that and this has given Young a chance to figure out that he just has to do what he's told and focus. It took him longer than what many expected, but I think at the cost you can probably get him by early in the regular season, he's a low risk-high reward value.

I like the Mark Clayton choice and I discussed him as a breakout candidate in an upcoming Gut Check Column on Stat Profiling Breakout Wide receivers that will be on the homepage in the next day or so.

wat? Granted, I wasn't following football closely in 83, but who thought Elway was an unmitigated bust? He didn't light the NFL on fire as a rookie, but he never had VY's issues

 

[mlball77]

A few that come to mind for me (mostly of the deep sleeper variety):

Mark Bradley - Showed flashes last year. With Cassel in town and Gonzalez gone, he could finally break out and put up decent numbers.

James Davis - I know little about his game, just think the opportunity is there in CLE.

Bernard Scott - Similar to Davis.

Chris Simms - Everyone is giving Orton the job in DEN, but maybe he can sneak in and take the job.

Chad Henne - With Pat White in MIA, many seem to be writing him off. He may get a real shot in the next year or so.

 

[Biabreakable]

What caused you to move Greene back down? Because I haven't seen or read anything that would cause movement one way or the other since the draft.I'm just curious (also drafted Greene at 1.5 )

In my pre-nfl-draft rankings I didn't have him in the top 10. Mostly based on a talent+longevity+risk/reward.. well a lot of things. But I had Greene at pick 12.With Greene being one of the 1st picks in the 3rd round and looking at TJ's age as well as the team as a whole, this is a pretty good situation he ended up in. If Jones is traded or released then yes Greene's value would be worth more than pick 12 I think but we don't know that yet. Jones and Washington could hold Greene back 1 year, 2 years, perhaps indefinitly. This wouldn't be the 1st rookie RB that Jones started over.Greene not being a good reciever limit's his potential, while many of the WR prospects are more complete players imo.So after being excited about Greene's situation initialy I was still shuffling guys around on my list. On the way back.. moving from the bottom up I re-evaluated the situation and just couldn't justify having Greene any higher than 12. The same as my pre-nfl-draft ranking for him.Also I don't see Greene's situation as more ideal than Andre Brown's or Jennings. And I like both of their talent about the same.I could be very wrong about this. But I see Greene as a guy the Jets will always be looking to upgrade. To a more complete RB like they had in CuMart and have in Jones now. Doesen't mean he won't get his chance to play. But if he gets held back in commitee situations over the next 2 years the Jets might have the opportunity to draft someone better than him by then.JMO

 

[greyone]

I've been waiting to post this for a bit because I had a rookie/FA draft. However, I just drafted the guy so can now post what I've heard.Local radio has been talking about Packers a bit after the draft, anyway the guy who covers the Packers mentioned how DeShawn Wynn has been in Green Bay all offseason and looks like a beast. He also mentioned that he seems to understand that he needed to grow up and that if his mind settled in with his skills he could be very good. I'm not saying Wynn is going to steal a job or anything, but I'm pretty sure Jackson is the lock for the 3rd down job so Wynn may be Grant's actual handcuff and could possibly take the job if there were to be injury issues again.I'll try to find a link, but like I said this was on the radio so I may not be able to.Wynn has played well when given an opportunity. You probably don't have to put him on your roster now either, but be prepared if you see signs of Grant struggling or Wynn exploding during TC and Preseason.

What have they said about Lumpkin?

 

[Patoons]

Chansi Stuckey.

This guy is going after the 20th round or so and is likely the #2 starter for the NYJ (can be argued it's Clowney, but I don't see it as I think he's a one trick pony). In 2007 he had a great camp and got injured. Last year as the #3, he had a pretty solid year. With Coles gone and no serious threat drafted, I really like this guy to step up nicely. He's a nice sleeper/steal right now.

 

[MAC_32]

Chansi Stuckey.This guy is going after the 20th round or so and is likely the #2 starter for the NYJ (can be argued it's Clowney, but I don't see it as I think he's a one trick pony). In 2007 he had a great camp and got injured. Last year as the #3, he had a pretty solid year. With Coles gone and no serious threat drafted, I really like this guy to step up nicely. He's a nice sleeper/steal right now.

Everything I've read indicates the Jets love him in the slot but don't want to move him outside, they want Clowney or Smith out there and if they don't step up they'll replace them via free agency/draft. Am I off base here? I'm sitting on all three in a dyno and probably only have room to keep one come August so I'll be following this camp battle very closely.

 

[EBF]

I like Stuckey too and I'm puzzled why Clowney gets more hype despite having a much weaker 2008 season.

However, I think Plaxico Burress will be a Jet next season and that will push Stuckey to the slot.

 

[MAC_32]

I like Stuckey too and I'm puzzled why Clowney gets more hype despite having a much weaker 2008 season.

However, I think Plaxico Burress will be a Jet next season and that will push Stuckey to the slot.

Jets brass seems to think he has the higher ceiling and he was hurt last season, which explains the lack of production.Stuckey's the safer bet, but Clowney could be huge. Albeit those chances are likely very small but I would rather gamble on the guy who could be a reliable week to week starter (but will more likely be irrelevant) than take what equates to an adequate WR4. If my gamble doesn't pay off and I need a safer bench WR I'd rather trade for them cheaply.

 

[LBH]

Chansi Stuckey.This guy is going after the 20th round or so and is likely the #2 starter for the NYJ (can be argued it's Clowney, but I don't see it as I think he's a one trick pony). In 2007 he had a great camp and got injured. Last year as the #3, he had a pretty solid year. With Coles gone and no serious threat drafted, I really like this guy to step up nicely. He's a nice sleeper/steal right now.

I think you underestimate Clowney. Stuckey has slot reciever written all over him

 

[LBH]

Chansi Stuckey.This guy is going after the 20th round or so and is likely the #2 starter for the NYJ (can be argued it's Clowney, but I don't see it as I think he's a one trick pony). In 2007 he had a great camp and got injured. Last year as the #3, he had a pretty solid year. With Coles gone and no serious threat drafted, I really like this guy to step up nicely. He's a nice sleeper/steal right now.

Everything I've read indicates the Jets love him in the slot but don't want to move him outside, they want Clowney or Smith out there and if they don't step up they'll replace them via free agency/draft. Am I off base here? I'm sitting on all three in a dyno and probably only have room to keep one come August so I'll be following this camp battle very closely.

No youre not off base at all. Thats spot on imo

 

[lyon812]

Also I don't see Greene's situation as more ideal than Andre Brown's or Jennings. And I like both of their talent about the same.I could be very wrong about this. But I see Greene as a guy the Jets will always be looking to upgrade. To a more complete RB like they had in CuMart and have in Jones now. Doesen't mean he won't get his chance to play. But if he gets held back in commitee situations over the next 2 years the Jets might have the opportunity to draft someone better than him by then.

I don't think they'll be looking to upgrade; if anything, their hunger for him demonstrates they see him as an end of a search, not a beginning. Pairing him with Washington is a win-win for the Jets and fantasy leaguers. I don't know why that would hold him back at all. The bruising part of a committee can rack up a lot of points. Right now, I feel his situation is far superior to Brown/Jennings, though I'd put Brown next on the list for opportunity since you know Jacobs will get hurt during the season and Brown is, at this point, his eventual successor.

 

[EBF]

Also I don't see Greene's situation as more ideal than Andre Brown's or Jennings. And I like both of their talent about the same.I could be very wrong about this. But I see Greene as a guy the Jets will always be looking to upgrade. To a more complete RB like they had in CuMart and have in Jones now. Doesen't mean he won't get his chance to play. But if he gets held back in commitee situations over the next 2 years the Jets might have the opportunity to draft someone better than him by then.

I don't think they'll be looking to upgrade; if anything, their hunger for him demonstrates they see him as an end of a search, not a beginning. Pairing him with Washington is a win-win for the Jets and fantasy leaguers. I don't know why that would hold him back at all. The bruising part of a committee can rack up a lot of points. Right now, I feel his situation is far superior to Brown/Jennings, though I'd put Brown next on the list for opportunity since you know Jacobs will get hurt during the season and Brown is, at this point, his eventual successor.

I agree with this. Greene should be a top 5-6 pick in almost every non-PPR rookie draft. The Jets moved up to draft him with the first pick in the third round and stated that he was the best player left on their board by far. It's even been rumored that he was the #1 RB on their board in the entire draft. Thomas Jones will turn 32 before the 2010 season and Leon Washington is a complementary back. I think Greene is the odds on favorite to be the opening day starter in 2010 and I expect him to do pretty well. After his first big season, you can decide whether to keep him or trade him. I don't think the Jets will make an active effort to replace him within the next year. The only way I could see that happening is if someone like Jonathan Dwyer falls to them in the draft next year (possible, but unlikely). Brown is a better athlete than football player at this point. He's an interesting sleeper because of his tools and his long term potential, but he's just as likely to bust as succeed and the team didn't make a big investment in him.Jennings doesn't even belong in the conversation. He could get some playing time right away since Jacksonville needs a complement to MJD, but he was a 7th round pick and there's no reason to think he'll be anything more than a journeyman in the NFL.

 

[bcr8f]

I didn't like Greene but after the Jets saying he was #1 on their list I picked him at 1.08 in a recent rookie draft.

Could be a Rudi Johnson.

 

[lyon812]

People severely underestimate the value of hitting on a pick that winds up as RB8-15.

 

[Biabreakable]

People severely underestimate the value of hitting on a pick that winds up as RB8-15.

There are about 50 RB capable of ending up that high in any given year. But only a few who can repeat and maintain that level longer than a couple seasons.A WR who develops into a starting caliber player on the other hand is more likely to maintain that level of success for a longer time frame.The strength of the 2009 draft is at WR. The best WR class since 2004. I can see this inflating the value of a RBBC prospect who may not see much action as a rookie. Due to the scarcity of decent RB prospects and the depth at WR relativly. If Thomas Jones were out of the picture I would see this differently. However as it stands right now I have to look at Greene as a guy I will have to wait on a year. Just as I would expect to wait a year for a WR to develop. That takes away some of that RB value premium. I like many of the WR chances to become a productive player over a longer time frame than I expect out of Greene. I do like Greene's situation better than Peermans or Jennings or Andre Browns. But I don't see Greene as clearly more talented than these guys. Fred Taylor and Ward are no longer with the Giants/Jaguars. There are roles to fill here with the same upside for starting role should the starter get injured. I am not saying I like these guys more than Greene, I don't. They are better values however because you don't need a top 9 pick to get them. Which is what I am pretty sure Greene will not be taken later than that in most drafts.In the end I cannot justify taking him that high when there are WR who I think have a better chance of panning out and for a much longer time frame. I also think Stafford and Sanchez are for real. And so I have them ahead of Greene as well.Obviously team need will likely lead towards Greene being a higher pick.

 

[lyon812]

People severely underestimate the value of hitting on a pick that winds up as RB8-15.

There are about 50 RB capable of ending up that high in any given year. But only a few who can repeat and maintain that level longer than a couple seasons.A WR who develops into a starting caliber player on the other hand is more likely to maintain that level of success for a longer time frame.In the end I cannot justify taking him that high when there are WR who I think have a better chance of panning out and for a much longer time frame. I also think Stafford and Sanchez are for real. And so I have them ahead of Greene as well.

Sorry, I should have put "consistently" between "up" and "as". You can apply your 50 RB statement to WR as well. Hell, maybe I’m misperceiving, but WR seems a lot more volatile from the 10-25 range than RB ever is, with ne w people every year. My point was that people undervalue the players that are often a core component of long-term viability. Again, same thing with WR. I can't recall Donald Driver being in the top 5-7 receivers off the top of my head, but he certainly had value, and if you could tell me that pick 1.9 was going to be the next Driver and give me 4-6 years of non-superstar excellence, then I'd be all over it. Same with Greene. If he's Rudi Johnson and has 3 solid years from 2010-2012, I'm pretty happy, particularly if he's doing it while others are wondering when their highly talented back is going to get the opportunity to start. I think that this disagreement is just another example of one of the great questions of fantasy football: How much do you draft for opportunity, and how much do you draft for talent?Greene gets a plus in both opportunity and talent. He has a clear path towards being a starter by 2010, is adored by the team that drafted him, and has no clear competition for the role he will perform. That's what makes him worth drafting early--the combination. He's perceived, right or wrong, as a sure thing, a solid bet, someone that may not elate you but also won't break your heart. In general, I agree regarding WR: they're more valuable. However, the short shelf life of RBs in general also means that you can't ignore the need to keep the mill churning. Greene could stabilize a roster for a few years as a "sure thing" at a high turnover position. It's not like most drafts will see Greene go before pick 1.9-1.10. At the bottom end of the first round/start of the second, the top WRs are usually off the board, and the choice is between him, the remaining QBs (and not everyone is willing to trust them not to bust), and the next tier of WRs that have a lot of question marks: Thomas, Dillard, Collie, Iglesias, Tate, Massaquoi, etc. Sure, there's some promise there, but there's a hell of lot more uncertainty. Thus, considering where Greene is going, he's a great value. Getting someone who's "sure" (using that term VERY loosely) to be a decent starter for a few years is often more valuable to a team than continually drafting a bunch of upside players. That's what people underrate. Hope that explains it better.

 

[Patoons]

Chansi Stuckey.This guy is going after the 20th round or so and is likely the #2 starter for the NYJ (can be argued it's Clowney, but I don't see it as I think he's a one trick pony). In 2007 he had a great camp and got injured. Last year as the #3, he had a pretty solid year. With Coles gone and no serious threat drafted, I really like this guy to step up nicely. He's a nice sleeper/steal right now.

I think you underestimate Clowney. Stuckey has slot reciever written all over him

I obviously don't agree and will agree to disagree.At risk of taking this thread down the wrong path, I'd be very interested to see the link on smith/clowney outside with the Jets preferring Stuckey in the slot. I know there's speculation on this, but can't recall reading any quotes from the Jets staff or brass. Link would be appreciated.

 

[LBH]

Chansi Stuckey.

This guy is going after the 20th round or so and is likely the #2 starter for the NYJ (can be argued it's Clowney, but I don't see it as I think he's a one trick pony). In 2007 he had a great camp and got injured. Last year as the #3, he had a pretty solid year. With Coles gone and no serious threat drafted, I really like this guy to step up nicely. He's a nice sleeper/steal right now.

I think you underestimate Clowney. Stuckey has slot reciever written all over him

I obviously don't agree and will agree to disagree.At risk of taking this thread down the wrong path, I'd be very interested to see the link on smith/clowney outside with the Jets preferring Stuckey in the slot. I know there's speculation on this, but can't recall reading any quotes from the Jets staff or brass. Link would be appreciated.

Mostly my own opinion drawn from watching Stuckey. I like him a lot as a reciever but he just looks and plays more like the slot reciever prototype imo. Ive been high on Clowney since last preseason and would have loved to see him have a healthy season last year. New Jets coach Rex Ryan has already taken a liking to WR David Clowney.

Ryan took note of Clowney's blazing speed during last year's preseason, but now he thinks "there's more to him than that. He's been very impressive." Clowney has a chance to be a fantasy sleeper if the Jets don't draft a first-round wide receiver.Source: Newsday

from Dave Hutchinson...

Well, I'm hearing that Tannenbaum was at least telling the truth when he said the organization is excited about wide receivers David Clowney and Brad Smith and that's why the team didn't draft or trade for a wide receiver.

My sources are telling me that the Jets are going to give Clowney and Smith every opportunity to succeed -- and then some. The organization really feels that either or both have the ability to be big-time players.

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2009/04/n...igh_on_wrs.html

What you should get excited about is the bright future of speedster David Clowney. I'm hearing that a top priority for the new coaching staff is to find out whether or not Clowney is the real deal.

I think Clowney will be a big-time player and WR Brad Smith, who took Clowney's roster spot last season, will end up in Cleveland with Eric Mangini, who absolutely loves Smith. Smith made a difficult transition from college quarterback to NFL wide receiver and has shown flashes, but I'd rather have a legit game-breaker like Clowney.

http://www.nj.com/jets/index.ssf/2009/02/j...xpat_wr_bu.html

from the end of last season.....

Jets WR Chansi Stuckey was a healthy inactive for the first time this season in Week 16.

Stuckey has been mostly quiet since Dustin Keller passed him as the Jets' third "receiver" and may have even fallen behind David Clowney on the depth chart. Clowney offers better upside as a vertical threat with 4.3 speed. Stuckey is quick, but is more of a pure slot receiver.Source: Newark Star-Ledger

 

[dmac37]

Also I don't see Greene's situation as more ideal than Andre Brown's or Jennings. And I like both of their talent about the same.

I could be very wrong about this. But I see Greene as a guy the Jets will always be looking to upgrade. To a more complete RB like they had in CuMart and have in Jones now. Doesen't mean he won't get his chance to play. But if he gets held back in commitee situations over the next 2 years the Jets might have the opportunity to draft someone better than him by then.

I don't think they'll be looking to upgrade; if anything, their hunger for him demonstrates they see him as an end of a search, not a beginning. Pairing him with Washington is a win-win for the Jets and fantasy leaguers. I don't know why that would hold him back at all. The bruising part of a committee can rack up a lot of points. Right now, I feel his situation is far superior to Brown/Jennings, though I'd put Brown next on the list for opportunity since you know Jacobs will get hurt during the season and Brown is, at this point, his eventual successor.

What does Bradshaw need to do in order to get any respect?When given a chance all he does is produce. He is not a beast like Jacobs but he is still built to be more than just a COP RB.

 

[Patoons]

New Jets coach Rex Ryan has already taken a liking to WR David Clowney.

Ryan took note of Clowney's blazing speed during last year's preseason, but now he thinks "there's more to him than that. He's been very impressive." Clowney has a chance to be a fantasy sleeper if the Jets don't draft a first-round wide receiver.Source: Newsday

I'm not sure what context this is in, but this is something I have not seen and is definitely interesting. Granted it's just one bit, but good info. To me the others are writers' speculation and more of the same I've seen around on Clowney since the preseason game he blew up.Until I see quotes from the staff saying that Stuckey is best fit as a slot guy, I still am holding strong that the kid could be a legitimate #2 guy in the NFL.

 

[lyon812]

Also I don't see Greene's situation as more ideal than Andre Brown's or Jennings. And I like both of their talent about the same.

I could be very wrong about this. But I see Greene as a guy the Jets will always be looking to upgrade. To a more complete RB like they had in CuMart and have in Jones now. Doesen't mean he won't get his chance to play. But if he gets held back in commitee situations over the next 2 years the Jets might have the opportunity to draft someone better than him by then.

I don't think they'll be looking to upgrade; if anything, their hunger for him demonstrates they see him as an end of a search, not a beginning. Pairing him with Washington is a win-win for the Jets and fantasy leaguers. I don't know why that would hold him back at all. The bruising part of a committee can rack up a lot of points. Right now, I feel his situation is far superior to Brown/Jennings, though I'd put Brown next on the list for opportunity since you know Jacobs will get hurt during the season and Brown is, at this point, his eventual successor.

What does Bradshaw need to do in order to get any respect?When given a chance all he does is produce. He is not a beast like Jacobs but he is still built to be more than just a COP RB.

It's nothing against Bradshaw, but it seems doubtful that the Giants would move away from their current (highly successful) RB philosophy in the next couple of years. If Jacobs goes down, Brown is much more suitable to his powerback role than Bradshaw is. I can't imagine that the Giants would say "Ok, Jacobs is out. Let's throw Bradshaw and Ware out there all game long." It just doesn't fit.

 

[bcr8f]

Anybody have any deeeeeep sleeper recommendations? Guys along the lines of Cottam. (Who is on my roster already BTW). I am in a 12-team, 40-man roster, non-IDP dynasty league (so 480 offensive players / PK / TD rostered), looking to fill out the last spot or two on my roster. The waiver wire looks bare. Any players most people may not be familiar with that may have some value down the road?

James Jones went Reaaaaal late last year. He was one of the most improved players but was hurt a lot. If he can stay healthy.....

 

[bcr8f]

People severely underestimate the value of hitting on a pick that winds up as RB8-15.

Like CJ last year? He was the 8th RB taken in a rookie draft and Slaton was #9. I took Ray Rice and Slaton but not CJ.

 

[lyon812]

People severely underestimate the value of hitting on a pick that winds up as RB8-15.

Like CJ last year? He was the 8th RB taken in a rookie draft and Slaton was #9. I took Ray Rice and Slaton but not CJ.

Hey, me too! But no, my major point was expressed later on, that the players you can find outside of the top 7 often are core components of a successful team, and that I don't think some people recognize the importance of being able to snag these players in rookie drafts because they're always looking for the next LT rather than the next Rudi Johnson. I feel that a much more realistic--and balanced--approach is necessary. A discussion about this is also happening in parallel in the "2 seasons is a lifetime in fantasy football" thread, too.

 

[bcr8f]

I think Harvin is a special talent, but I feel that he has the most competition for snaps of the first seven WR's drafted (DHB, Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Britt and Robiskie). Berrian is the deep threat, while Rice is the athletic possession receiver. I feel as if Harvin fits too perfectly in the slot...especially with his ability to carry the ball on reverses, etc 2-3 times per game.Granted...dynasty league owners should not be overly concerned with current situations when evaluating talent, but Berrian and Rice will be with the Vikes for a couple more years. I think Harvin will have too much competition for catches to out-duel guys like Crabtree, Nicks and DHB for production.

I think Harvin will be one of the guys in this class who makes FF owners immediately regret passing on him. He's just too explosive and dynamic to keep off the field. Think of him as a better version of DeSean Jackson. Berrian and Rice aren't so good that they'll keep him off the field. The Vikes drafted him to use immediately.

Not me. He has danger written all over him. I'll never regret passing even if he has a great career(which I think is more likely to be in jail than the NFL). Right or wrong you have to trust your instincts.

 

[Multiple Scores]

I think Harvin is a special talent, but I feel that he has the most competition for snaps of the first seven WR's drafted (DHB, Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Britt and Robiskie). Berrian is the deep threat, while Rice is the athletic possession receiver. I feel as if Harvin fits too perfectly in the slot...especially with his ability to carry the ball on reverses, etc 2-3 times per game.Granted...dynasty league owners should not be overly concerned with current situations when evaluating talent, but Berrian and Rice will be with the Vikes for a couple more years. I think Harvin will have too much competition for catches to out-duel guys like Crabtree, Nicks and DHB for production.

I think Harvin will be one of the guys in this class who makes FF owners immediately regret passing on him. He's just too explosive and dynamic to keep off the field. Think of him as a better version of DeSean Jackson. Berrian and Rice aren't so good that they'll keep him off the field. The Vikes drafted him to use immediately.

Not me. He has danger written all over him. I'll never regret passing even if he has a great career(which I think is more likely to be in jail than the NFL). Right or wrong you have to trust your instincts.

Has Harvin ever been in jail? Statistics suggest that the age of 16-21 is the most likely age a person lands in jail, if he's never been there I wouldn't predict it.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

Well, I think it's widely recognized that finding the next Rudi Johnson would be wonderful. At issue is whether that is at all predictable.

In fact, Rudi Johnson is an ironic (and telling) example. He wasn't on anybody's radar as a rookie. He was a little-regarded player behind an (at the time) stud running back. He did squat in his first two years. I would wager that at the beginning of his breakout third year, he was rostered in less than 10% of dynasty leagues.

I don't think it matters that people are looking for the next LT over the next Rudi. At the time when people like Shonn Greene are going in rookie drafts, it's more like "small chance of the next Rudi" vs. "medium chance of the next Cotchery". Not really that cut and dry, IMO.

 

[EBF]

I think Harvin is a special talent, but I feel that he has the most competition for snaps of the first seven WR's drafted (DHB, Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Britt and Robiskie). Berrian is the deep threat, while Rice is the athletic possession receiver. I feel as if Harvin fits too perfectly in the slot...especially with his ability to carry the ball on reverses, etc 2-3 times per game.Granted...dynasty league owners should not be overly concerned with current situations when evaluating talent, but Berrian and Rice will be with the Vikes for a couple more years. I think Harvin will have too much competition for catches to out-duel guys like Crabtree, Nicks and DHB for production.

I think Harvin will be one of the guys in this class who makes FF owners immediately regret passing on him. He's just too explosive and dynamic to keep off the field. Think of him as a better version of DeSean Jackson. Berrian and Rice aren't so good that they'll keep him off the field. The Vikes drafted him to use immediately.

Not me. He has danger written all over him. I'll never regret passing even if he has a great career(which I think is more likely to be in jail than the NFL). Right or wrong you have to trust your instincts.

Harvin is immature, arrogant, and not particularly intelligent.He's not a thug though. He's never been in legal trouble and he never missed a game at Florida because of off-field issues.His character concerns have been overblown and that's one of the many reasons why he's probably the most underrated player in his draft class.

 

[EBF]

Well, I think it's widely recognized that finding the next Rudi Johnson would be wonderful. At issue is whether that is at all predictable.In fact, Rudi Johnson is an ironic (and telling) example. He wasn't on anybody's radar as a rookie. He was a little-regarded player behind an (at the time) stud running back. He did squat in his first two years. I would wager that at the beginning of his breakout third year, he was rostered in less than 10% of dynasty leagues. I don't think it matters that people are looking for the next LT over the next Rudi. At the time when people like Shonn Greene are going in rookie drafts, it's more like "small chance of the next Rudi" vs. "medium chance of the next Cotchery". Not really that cut and dry, IMO.

In theory you're right, but I think it's possible to have a very strong read on a player. There are some guys in this class that I waver back-and-forth on. Chris Wells is a good example. I could see him tearing it up or I could see him being a total bust. When I look at his prospects, I see a very broad range of potential outcomes. Not the case with Greene. I've actually never flip-flopped on him throughout the entire process of ranking these guys. That's because I think I know exactly what he is and how he'll fare in the NFL. He's somewhere between LenDale --> Rudi --> Turner. Unless he gets lazy or gets in trouble, I just don't see him failing. I have so much confidence in my read that I actually don't think it's a stretch to look at him as the next Rudi Johnson (and not an 50% chance of Rudi). The guys that I'm particularly bullish on (Greene, Harvin, and Nicks) all look like near can't-miss talents to me. That's not to say they all have Pro Bowl futures or that they have more upside than the other players in this class, but I feel like I know what I'm getting with these prospects and that's why I rank them firmly above players with similar pedigrees (Maclin, Wells, DHB). Those guys are more enigmatic and boom-or-bust IMO. With them I would be more inclined to use percentages (like a 50% chance at the next McAllister).

 

[THE PUNISHER]

An excellent sleeper list.

Devin Hester is very misunderstood even by knowledgeable commentators. Even sharks do not realize how much he has recently improved. I was willing to give up late first round picks in 2010 drafts throughout the highly competitive Intensity Dynasty leagues for Hester pre-Cutler because I thought he would break out even with Orton. Of course his value is now higher with Cutler but I still hear a lot of babbling that the Bears have no legitimate WR for Cutler to throw to. Many dynasty owners will be kicking themselves at the end of 2009 when they realize they could have gotten the #16 WR for #42 money.

Pierre Thomas is another guy I targeted (in the leagues where I didn't already own him) with all the Wells talk leading up to the draft. Although most draftniks profess they can't be "psyched out" by coach pre-draft positioning, far too many NFL/Sirius network folks and fellow dynasty owners bought into Sean Payton's supposed need for the "big bruising back". Reggie Bush will catch balls in space (his role is also misunderstood) but Pierre is the guy. Few people realize that Thomas was the guy who kept Mendenhall on the bench for a year at Illinois.

 

[bcr8f]

I think Harvin is a special talent, but I feel that he has the most competition for snaps of the first seven WR's drafted (DHB, Crabtree, Maclin, Harvin, Nicks, Britt and Robiskie). Berrian is the deep threat, while Rice is the athletic possession receiver. I feel as if Harvin fits too perfectly in the slot...especially with his ability to carry the ball on reverses, etc 2-3 times per game.Granted...dynasty league owners should not be overly concerned with current situations when evaluating talent, but Berrian and Rice will be with the Vikes for a couple more years. I think Harvin will have too much competition for catches to out-duel guys like Crabtree, Nicks and DHB for production.

I think Harvin will be one of the guys in this class who makes FF owners immediately regret passing on him. He's just too explosive and dynamic to keep off the field. Think of him as a better version of DeSean Jackson. Berrian and Rice aren't so good that they'll keep him off the field. The Vikes drafted him to use immediately.

Not me. He has danger written all over him. I'll never regret passing even if he has a great career(which I think is more likely to be in jail than the NFL). Right or wrong you have to trust your instincts.

Harvin is immature, arrogant, and not particularly intelligent.He's not a thug though. He's never been in legal trouble and he never missed a game at Florida because of off-field issues.His character concerns have been overblown and that's one of the many reasons why he's probably the most underrated player in his draft class.

People I see are more concerned about another love boat scandal. Or trouble $millions could cause because he may not have a lot of self control.Does that make him a thug no of course not. He needs to mature and if they are smart the Vikings will team someone up with him that will help.

 

[bcr8f]

Not me. He has danger written all over him. I'll never regret passing even if he has a great career(which I think is more likely to be in jail than the NFL). Right or wrong you have to trust your instincts.

Has Harvin ever been in jail? Statistics suggest that the age of 16-21 is the most likely age a person lands in jail, if he's never been there I wouldn't predict it.

So...if he isn't in jail by now no need to worry?

 

[Biabreakable]

People severely underestimate the value of hitting on a pick that winds up as RB8-15.

Like CJ last year? He was the 8th RB taken in a rookie draft and Slaton was #9. I took Ray Rice and Slaton but not CJ.

Hey, me too! But no, my major point was expressed later on, that the players you can find outside of the top 7 often are core components of a successful team, and that I don't think some people recognize the importance of being able to snag these players in rookie drafts because they're always looking for the next LT rather than the next Rudi Johnson. I feel that a much more realistic--and balanced--approach is necessary. A discussion about this is also happening in parallel in the "2 seasons is a lifetime in fantasy football" thread, too.

I appreciate what you have been bringing to this thread. It makes me think.I don't think we disagree too much about the relevence of finding players later on in the draft that might not be super stars but who will be useful contributors to a fantasy team.If you can come out of a rookie draft with one player who starts for you most of the time your doing well. Anything after that is gravy.I do take a best player available approach to how I form my rankings. How I determine who is the best player is taking a combination of short and long term view of each player prospect.Due to the long term view and in this case Greene who most see as a 2 down RB who probably will not get a lot of action in year one causes me to favor most of the 1st round WR over Greene. Those players have their risks as well. But when your talking about 30% success rate compared to a 50% success rate (based on position played and draft position taken) the 50% is better.Now that is without looking at the specific situation. I see Greene as having a better than 30% of being startable at some point in his career. Possibly by 2010.I will be posting my rankings here for everyone to pick apart shortly. I like Greene more than folks might get the impression from me based on my posts here. I just think the WR and 2QB are safer long term picks to make.ETA- I did have Greene as high as 6 at one point and I am not in huge disagreement with people taking him there if they have a need at RB. But he moved back down to 11 after I went over it all again. Obviously need will dictate who people pick. But I try not to bake that into my rankings.

 

[LBH]

My deep sleeper in dynasty is Leonard Weaver. Really like his skill set even if he's listed as a FB. I always thought he was under utilized in Seattle and should of had more of an oppurtunity last year. Now that he's in Philly I could see him getting a big chunk of carries if anything happens to Westbrook. McCoy is small and unproven, and it remains to be seen if he can do an adequate job in pass protection. Weaver is a fine reciever and decent short yardage back. I won't be shocked if he gets an oppurtunity to help some fantasy teams at some point this season

 

[Biabreakable]

My deep sleeper in dynasty is Leonard Weaver. Really like his skill set even if he's listed as a FB. I always thought he was under utilized in Seattle and should of had more of an oppurtunity last year. Now that he's in Philly I could see him getting a big chunk of carries if anything happens to Westbrook. McCoy is small and unproven, and it remains to be seen if he can do an adequate job in pass protection. Weaver is a fine reciever and decent short yardage back. I won't be shocked if he gets an oppurtunity to help some fantasy teams at some point this season

I agree. Also Justin Forsett is a player with a lot of promise but who has been recovering from injury. The Hawks have kept him for 2 years now. Maybe he will work his way up the depth chart if healthy now.

 

[lyon812]

People severely underestimate the value of hitting on a pick that winds up as RB8-15.

Like CJ last year? He was the 8th RB taken in a rookie draft and Slaton was #9. I took Ray Rice and Slaton but not CJ.

Hey, me too! But no, my major point was expressed later on, that the players you can find outside of the top 7 often are core components of a successful team, and that I don't think some people recognize the importance of being able to snag these players in rookie drafts because they're always looking for the next LT rather than the next Rudi Johnson. I feel that a much more realistic--and balanced--approach is necessary. A discussion about this is also happening in parallel in the "2 seasons is a lifetime in fantasy football" thread, too.

I appreciate what you have been bringing to this thread. It makes me think.I don't think we disagree too much about the relevence of finding players later on in the draft that might not be super stars but who will be useful contributors to a fantasy team.If you can come out of a rookie draft with one player who starts for you most of the time your doing well. Anything after that is gravy.

I agree, it's good to have these sort of discussions. I look forward to your rankings. My pre-draft ones are lurking around somewhere. I agree that there's a certain amount of %chance that you have to take into consideration. Everyone has a different spot at which they draw the line in the sand--and it should be stated that even people who focus on consistency sometimes take a gamble on players. In my recent draft, at pick 1.11 I was looking at one of either Greene, DHB, or Robiskie. Out of all of those, DHB is the most volatile/unpredictable, Greene the most likely to be steady for a brief span but peak high once or twice, and Robiskie the most likely to be a consistent second-tier performer for a long time. Out of those three choices, I think that there isn't a clear "right answer", and that taking the safe (Greene) over the more risky (DHB) makes perfect sense. For the record, Greene went at 1.10, so I took DHB, which was only out of desperation and has me tremendously nervous. =)

 

[Biabreakable]

People severely underestimate the value of hitting on a pick that winds up as RB8-15.

Like CJ last year? He was the 8th RB taken in a rookie draft and Slaton was #9. I took Ray Rice and Slaton but not CJ.

Hey, me too! But no, my major point was expressed later on, that the players you can find outside of the top 7 often are core components of a successful team, and that I don't think some people recognize the importance of being able to snag these players in rookie drafts because they're always looking for the next LT rather than the next Rudi Johnson. I feel that a much more realistic--and balanced--approach is necessary. A discussion about this is also happening in parallel in the "2 seasons is a lifetime in fantasy football" thread, too.

I appreciate what you have been bringing to this thread. It makes me think.I don't think we disagree too much about the relevence of finding players later on in the draft that might not be super stars but who will be useful contributors to a fantasy team.If you can come out of a rookie draft with one player who starts for you most of the time your doing well. Anything after that is gravy.

I agree, it's good to have these sort of discussions. I look forward to your rankings. My pre-draft ones are lurking around somewhere. I agree that there's a certain amount of %chance that you have to take into consideration. Everyone has a different spot at which they draw the line in the sand--and it should be stated that even people who focus on consistency sometimes take a gamble on players. In my recent draft, at pick 1.11 I was looking at one of either Greene, DHB, or Robiskie. Out of all of those, DHB is the most volatile/unpredictable, Greene the most likely to be steady for a brief span but peak high once or twice, and Robiskie the most likely to be a consistent second-tier performer for a long time. Out of those three choices, I think that there isn't a clear "right answer", and that taking the safe (Greene) over the more risky (DHB) makes perfect sense. For the record, Greene went at 1.10, so I took DHB, which was only out of desperation and has me tremendously nervous. =)

I traded out of pick 9 with Greene and DHB still available hoping DHB would fall to pick 10 (which I also owned). But I have DHB ranked 5th overall.I am not opposed to taking calculated risks. DHB could become a WR1 and be a household name in a couple of years. Greene is more limited than Lamont Jordan was as far as upside goes. If he ever does finish as a RB1 or RB2 will he be a player you will be expecting to repeat that success if he achieves it? For how long?If DHB reaches that level he will probably be able to be counted on as a WR2 with WR1 upside for many years to come.Every player is a risk. I like DHB's prospects more. This might be the looking for a impact player over a consistent producer but in the case of DHB I think he is worth the risk.A lot of people turned off by DHB because of erronious statements about his ability to catch and to catch with his hands. Also turned off by the Raiders stigma and comments in the media.But when you think about it DHB will start from day one with a QB who has one of the strongest arms in the league. There are going to be times that defenses just cannot run with DHB and I think he is going to make a lot of big plays. If the running game becomes respectable that just helps DHB even more. He is going up against one of the best cover corners in the league who is teaching him already. I don't think Asomugha is going to let DHB start unprepared for what NFL corner backs will be looking for and what they will do.I don't play PPR so players who can score have a lot more value from my perspective. DHB is a guy who could score 6+ TD just off of bombs. He has great leaping ability and will be a target in the red zone also. He has the upside for double digit TD seasons.I think the bust risk is pretty overblown and I don't see DHB as being any more of a risk than any of the other rookie players out there really.

 

[EBF]

Oakland is where talent goes to die. Al Davis always thinks he can make football players out of athletes and he's usually wrong. Stanford Routt. Fabian Washington. JaMarcus Russell. Darrius Heyward-Bey. There's a pattern here.

DHB is a great prospect on paper, but what you get on the field isn't as exciting. He's not very fluid and he has mediocre short area quickness. His hands are better than advertised and his deep speed is undeniable, but there's a lot more that goes into being a WR than size and straight line speed. He doesn't play nearly as explosive as Harvin despite having a better 40 time.

I think he'll be a tease for FF purposes. He'll make some big plays, but I doubt he'll ever become a consistent performer. Of all the first round WRs, he's the most glaringly obvious bust candidate. I'm avoiding him in all my leagues. If Randy Moss can't produce in Oakland, how can I expect anything from DHB?

Overrated prospect + toxic situation =

 

[Biabreakable]

The hay day of Darius Heyward-Bey bias in the Bay. Hey Bey Bey.

Sorry I just felt like saying that.

 

[az_prof]

Also I don't see Greene's situation as more ideal than Andre Brown's or Jennings. And I like both of their talent about the same.

I could be very wrong about this. But I see Greene as a guy the Jets will always be looking to upgrade. To a more complete RB like they had in CuMart and have in Jones now. Doesen't mean he won't get his chance to play. But if he gets held back in commitee situations over the next 2 years the Jets might have the opportunity to draft someone better than him by then.

I don't think they'll be looking to upgrade; if anything, their hunger for him demonstrates they see him as an end of a search, not a beginning. Pairing him with Washington is a win-win for the Jets and fantasy leaguers. I don't know why that would hold him back at all. The bruising part of a committee can rack up a lot of points. Right now, I feel his situation is far superior to Brown/Jennings, though I'd put Brown next on the list for opportunity since you know Jacobs will get hurt during the season and Brown is, at this point, his eventual successor.

What does Bradshaw need to do in order to get any respect?When given a chance all he does is produce. He is not a beast like Jacobs but he is still built to be more than just a COP RB.

It's nothing against Bradshaw, but it seems doubtful that the Giants would move away from their current (highly successful) RB philosophy in the next couple of years. If Jacobs goes down, Brown is much more suitable to his powerback role than Bradshaw is. I can't imagine that the Giants would say "Ok, Jacobs is out. Let's throw Bradshaw and Ware out there all game long." It just doesn't fit.

I thought the Giant's method was to bring rookie RBs along slowly and make them serve their dues. Hence, Jacobs had to wait for Tiki. I don't think there is any certainty at all that Brown is the second back and more than likely he is the third or fourth. Bradshaw has produced really well in the NFL--what has Brown down in the NFL? He isn't an elite pick. He needs to show something and earn a roster spot before people anoint him Jacob's successor.

 

[loose circuits]

Now that waivers have run in my one league, Jermichael Finley TE GBP. 3rd round pick and I just picked him up for $2 blind bid in a 12X35 league. He has just as much potential as the guys drafted in this draft IMO. Almost drafted him in our 5th round

Heard PK and T-Rock talking about. I believe they have a pretty good relationship with McCarthy and crew. They were talking about how they liked him in Green Bay and could be adding him to the gameplan. They also didn't draft a TE and Donald Lee isn't really the answer

 

[NorrisB]

What do you think of Michael Jenkins? seems like a player you would like, first pedigree. Also Alex Smith is a guy I have my eye on, the 49ers dont want to go to war with a noodle arm pie thrower like Shaun Hill, and Alex Smith has actually had a decent carreer and has a rocket arm.

 

[MAC_32]

What do you think of Michael Jenkins? seems like a player you would like, first pedigree.

Like the Giants' Steve Smith, better real player than fantasy player.

Also Alex Smith is a guy I have my eye on, the 49ers dont want to go to war with a noodle arm pie thrower like Shaun Hill, and Alex Smith has actually had a decent carreer and has a rocket arm.

If you're joking I missed it, I hope that's the case.

 

[NorrisB]

No Im not. Since the end of the season the 49ers have been pretty adamant about giving Smith an opportunity to compete for a starting Job. As for Hill, they have basically told him that "we are not sold on you" by not naming him the starter, asking him to compete for a starting job, resigning Smith, and basically being rumored to be interested in almost every available QB this off-season.

Whoever wins the job has a pretty decent amount of weapons and could be a good sleeper. I also think theres people still in the organization that want to be proven right by taking Smith, and I think if its close Smith wins the job.

 

[EBF]

Jenkins is a mediocre player. He might be a nice value in best ball leagues. I'd avoid him everywhere else.

Alex Smith has looked horrible more often than not. I doubt he's the answer for San Francisco.

 

[MAC_32]

No Im not. Since the end of the season the 49ers have been pretty adamant about given Smith an opportunity to compete for a starting Job. As for Hill, they have basically told him that "we are not sold on you" by not naming him the starter, asking him to compete for a starting job, resigning Smith, and basically being rumored to be interested in almost every available QB this off-season.Whoever wins the job has a pretty decent amount of weapons and could be a good sleeper. I also think theres people still in the organization that want to be proven right by taking Smith, and I think if its close Smith wins the job.

Then the new Niners regime is just as sil,ly as the last one.Hill came in at the end of 2007 to a trainwreck and played pretty well. Then Nolan desperately brought Martz in who promptly benched Hill for a never was who eventually coughed up the job. Hill then comes in again and plays pretty well in a trainwreck of a situation.Alex Smith has sucked in every one of his opportunities, Hill has done pretty well in both of his. This seems like a pretty easy decision to me, I will laugh my ### off if they go with Smith though. Foolishness.

 

[Biabreakable]

No Im not. Since the end of the season the 49ers have been pretty adamant about given Smith an opportunity to compete for a starting Job. As for Hill, they have basically told him that "we are not sold on you" by not naming him the starter, asking him to compete for a starting job, resigning Smith, and basically being rumored to be interested in almost every available QB this off-season.Whoever wins the job has a pretty decent amount of weapons and could be a good sleeper. I also think theres people still in the organization that want to be proven right by taking Smith, and I think if its close Smith wins the job.

Then the new Niners regime is just as sil,ly as the last one.Hill came in at the end of 2007 to a trainwreck and played pretty well. Then Nolan desperately brought Martz in who promptly benched Hill for a never was who eventually coughed up the job. Hill then comes in again and plays pretty well in a trainwreck of a situation.Alex Smith has sucked in every one of his opportunities, Hill has done pretty well in both of his. This seems like a pretty easy decision to me, I will laugh my ### off if they go with Smith though. Foolishness.

Am I the only one who thinks Nate Davis has a shot at this job?

 

[Jeremy]

 

[lyon812]

No Im not. Since the end of the season the 49ers have been pretty adamant about given Smith an opportunity to compete for a starting Job. As for Hill, they have basically told him that "we are not sold on you" by not naming him the starter, asking him to compete for a starting job, resigning Smith, and basically being rumored to be interested in almost every available QB this off-season.Whoever wins the job has a pretty decent amount of weapons and could be a good sleeper. I also think theres people still in the organization that want to be proven right by taking Smith, and I think if its close Smith wins the job.

Then the new Niners regime is just as sil,ly as the last one.Hill came in at the end of 2007 to a trainwreck and played pretty well. Then Nolan desperately brought Martz in who promptly benched Hill for a never was who eventually coughed up the job. Hill then comes in again and plays pretty well in a trainwreck of a situation.Alex Smith has sucked in every one of his opportunities, Hill has done pretty well in both of his. This seems like a pretty easy decision to me, I will laugh my ### off if they go with Smith though. Foolishness.

Am I the only one who thinks Nate Davis has a shot at this job?

No, I took a flyer on him and think he has a great skillset for success. He was an excellent gamble for the 49ers, and I wouldn't be surprised if he was starting within 2 years. That being said, it's hard to foretell the the difficulties of a dyslexic individual having to learn weekly game plans in a franchise that isn't known for offensive stability. I'm rooting for him (obviously) and think he could surprise a lot of people, but I think that expecting him to start this year might be too optimistic.

 

[EBF]

Nate Davis was a late round pick and an early entry. I don't know if a player with that background has ever won a starting job as a rookie. He may be a decent long term option, but I don't think he'll log significant minutes this season unless Hill and Smith both get hurt.