EBF
Footballguy
Whenever I'm preparing for a dynasty draft, I try to build a list of quality sleepers who look like they have a chance to emerge from obscurity and become steals. I just finished a draft today, so I have a fresh set of players in mind. Without further ado, here are some of the better sleepers I'm focusing on this offseason:
QB Trent Edwards, Bills - After starting the season in top form last year, Edwards hit a downswing that culminated in a disastrous performance on national TV against the Browns. Almost everyone has cooled off on his FF value, but I still think he has the potential to develop into a franchise quarterback. From the moment he entered the league, almost all of the tea leaves surrounding Edwards have been positive. He dominated in his first preseason and quickly nudged incumbent JP Losman aside. He must have inspired a lot of faith in the organization because they've made no significant effort to replace him either of the last two seasons. His statistics improved across the board last season and if he can stay healthy, he might finally earn some respect this season. Currently ranked as the dynasty QB28 by the FBG staff, Edwards has the potential to finish the season among the top 15. He's an ideal QB2 in dynasty leagues if you have a solid starter.
RB Pierre Thomas, Saints - Thomas made a big splash last season with a string of several big games towards the end of the season. His value appeared to be in jeopardy as the Saints flirted with Moreno and Wells in the draft, but Pierre owners dodged a bullet when neither of those nightmare scenarios played out. I'm not convinced that Thomas has the elite talent needed to become a long term top 10 dynasty back, but he looks like a very good bet to put together a strong 2009 season and achieve a nice value bump over the next 12 months. Reggie Bush is recovering from microfracture surgery and is best in a complementary role anyway. Thomas looks like he could be one of the key players who emerge from the middle rounds to help teams win titles this season. At his current price tag of dynasty RB23, he offers a nice short term upside at a modest cost.
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers - The Steelers have a phenomenal track record in the first round of the draft, having netted such players as Roethlisberger, Polamalu, Holmes, and Burress in recent years. When the Steelers take someone in the first round, he almost always becomes a solid player. Rashard Mendenhall didn't achieve the immediate success that many FF owners hoped for, but he's still only 21 years old and he appears to have the total package of football skills and physical talent needed to seize the starting job in Pittsburgh. Willie Parker is in the final year of his contract, meaning Mendenhall will be given every opportunity to prove his worth and become the man in this backfield. I think he'll be starting no later than 2010. He's currently ranked as the #32 dynasty RB by the FBG staff. He probably won't fall that far in most drafts, but he's a tremendous value in the RB20-RB25 range once the quality starters are all spoken for.
RB Shonn Greene, Jets - Greene is a classic battering ram in the mold of Rudi Johnson or Stephen Davis. The Jets traded up to get him at the top of the third round this year, which indicates to me that they think he can step in and become their franchise back of the future. Thomas Jones is in the last year of his contract and Leon Washington is probably better suited to a complementary role, so I look for Greene to emerge as the starter here in 2010. He doesn't have the elite speed of Tomlinson or Peterson and his limited receiving skills might put a low cap on his upside, but he has all the makings of a quality war horse who can grind out multiple 1200+ yard rushing seasons and become a steady RB2 for FF teams. Currently ranked as the dynasty RB30 by FBG, Greene is an ideal RB3 for FF teams.
WR Percy Harvin, Vikings - I have Harvin ranked as the third best rookie in this class behind Moreno and Crabtree. Arguably the best skill position talent in the draft, Harvin still faces skepticism from the FF community for a variety of reasons. Some people say he's a RB/WR tweener, but at 5'11" 192 pounds, he's built almost identically to Laveranues Coles. Some people say he's injury prone, but much of that can be attributed to taking carries out of the backfield, something the vast majority of WR prospects weren't asked to do. Some people say he's a character risk, but he's known as an extremely competitive individual who works hard and plays hard. I expect Harvin to be one of the most impressive rookies in this class immediately and I think he's a great value in dynasty drafts at the WR38 spot where he's currently ranked by the FBG staff. I would take him over 10-15 of the guys ranked ahead of him.
WR Devin Hester, Bears - Everyone knows Hester's name because of his exploits as a return man, but most people probably don't realize that he might be on the cusp of breaking out as a WR. Hester is a raw talent who didn't get much experience at WR in college because his coaches were constantly moving him around. However, he has shown big improvement as an offensive player over the past two seasons, logging 30 catches in his final 8 games last year. Now he's entering his fateful third season as a receiver and he finally has a capable QB at the helm in Jay Cutler. Could he be this year's Eddie Royal? He looks like the most talented WR on the roster by a wide margin, so 1,000+ yards is not out of the question. He's currently ranked as the #60 dynasty WR by FBG. He won't fall that far in shark drafts, but he's still a monster value play as a WR4-WR5 with WR2 upside.
WR Brandon Tate, Patriots - Tate is a gifted prospect who was just coming into his own last season at North Carolina before suffering a catastrophic knee injury. Outside of the 6 WRs drafted in the first round of this year's NFL draft, I think he has the highest ceiling of any pass catcher in the draft. He's a fluid player with good mobility and hands. With Randy Moss on the wrong side of 30, Tate could emerge as the New England's new Troy Brown a couple years down the road. His price tag is surprisingly high as the current WR45 on the FBG staff rankings, but he'll slip farther than that in many drafts and is an excellent gamble as a long term developmental WR for your bench.
TE Martellus Bennett, Cowboys - Martellus Bennett is the Jonathan Stewart of RBs, but he can be had hundreds of picks later in your drafts. Most people don't know about him and those that do are scared of the fact that he's stuck behind Jason Witten. Take advantage of this situation and grab him cheap. Bennett is a gifted athlete in the mold of Antonio Gates. In addition to being a top football recruit out of high school, he was also one of the top basketball recruits in the country. He was such a good prospect that he was given a second round NBA draft grade. He ultimately decided on football and became a 2nd round pick by the Dallas Cowboys. He's a raw talent who flashed good potential in spot duty last season. There are those around the Cowboys organization who believe he has the potential to become one of the top 2-3 TEs in the entire league. Nevertheless, he routinely slips out of the top 20 TEs in dynasty drafts. Mammoth value at his ADP. He's currently ranked as the 28th best dynasty TE by FBG.
QB Trent Edwards, Bills - After starting the season in top form last year, Edwards hit a downswing that culminated in a disastrous performance on national TV against the Browns. Almost everyone has cooled off on his FF value, but I still think he has the potential to develop into a franchise quarterback. From the moment he entered the league, almost all of the tea leaves surrounding Edwards have been positive. He dominated in his first preseason and quickly nudged incumbent JP Losman aside. He must have inspired a lot of faith in the organization because they've made no significant effort to replace him either of the last two seasons. His statistics improved across the board last season and if he can stay healthy, he might finally earn some respect this season. Currently ranked as the dynasty QB28 by the FBG staff, Edwards has the potential to finish the season among the top 15. He's an ideal QB2 in dynasty leagues if you have a solid starter.
RB Pierre Thomas, Saints - Thomas made a big splash last season with a string of several big games towards the end of the season. His value appeared to be in jeopardy as the Saints flirted with Moreno and Wells in the draft, but Pierre owners dodged a bullet when neither of those nightmare scenarios played out. I'm not convinced that Thomas has the elite talent needed to become a long term top 10 dynasty back, but he looks like a very good bet to put together a strong 2009 season and achieve a nice value bump over the next 12 months. Reggie Bush is recovering from microfracture surgery and is best in a complementary role anyway. Thomas looks like he could be one of the key players who emerge from the middle rounds to help teams win titles this season. At his current price tag of dynasty RB23, he offers a nice short term upside at a modest cost.
RB Rashard Mendenhall, Steelers - The Steelers have a phenomenal track record in the first round of the draft, having netted such players as Roethlisberger, Polamalu, Holmes, and Burress in recent years. When the Steelers take someone in the first round, he almost always becomes a solid player. Rashard Mendenhall didn't achieve the immediate success that many FF owners hoped for, but he's still only 21 years old and he appears to have the total package of football skills and physical talent needed to seize the starting job in Pittsburgh. Willie Parker is in the final year of his contract, meaning Mendenhall will be given every opportunity to prove his worth and become the man in this backfield. I think he'll be starting no later than 2010. He's currently ranked as the #32 dynasty RB by the FBG staff. He probably won't fall that far in most drafts, but he's a tremendous value in the RB20-RB25 range once the quality starters are all spoken for.
RB Shonn Greene, Jets - Greene is a classic battering ram in the mold of Rudi Johnson or Stephen Davis. The Jets traded up to get him at the top of the third round this year, which indicates to me that they think he can step in and become their franchise back of the future. Thomas Jones is in the last year of his contract and Leon Washington is probably better suited to a complementary role, so I look for Greene to emerge as the starter here in 2010. He doesn't have the elite speed of Tomlinson or Peterson and his limited receiving skills might put a low cap on his upside, but he has all the makings of a quality war horse who can grind out multiple 1200+ yard rushing seasons and become a steady RB2 for FF teams. Currently ranked as the dynasty RB30 by FBG, Greene is an ideal RB3 for FF teams.
WR Percy Harvin, Vikings - I have Harvin ranked as the third best rookie in this class behind Moreno and Crabtree. Arguably the best skill position talent in the draft, Harvin still faces skepticism from the FF community for a variety of reasons. Some people say he's a RB/WR tweener, but at 5'11" 192 pounds, he's built almost identically to Laveranues Coles. Some people say he's injury prone, but much of that can be attributed to taking carries out of the backfield, something the vast majority of WR prospects weren't asked to do. Some people say he's a character risk, but he's known as an extremely competitive individual who works hard and plays hard. I expect Harvin to be one of the most impressive rookies in this class immediately and I think he's a great value in dynasty drafts at the WR38 spot where he's currently ranked by the FBG staff. I would take him over 10-15 of the guys ranked ahead of him.
WR Devin Hester, Bears - Everyone knows Hester's name because of his exploits as a return man, but most people probably don't realize that he might be on the cusp of breaking out as a WR. Hester is a raw talent who didn't get much experience at WR in college because his coaches were constantly moving him around. However, he has shown big improvement as an offensive player over the past two seasons, logging 30 catches in his final 8 games last year. Now he's entering his fateful third season as a receiver and he finally has a capable QB at the helm in Jay Cutler. Could he be this year's Eddie Royal? He looks like the most talented WR on the roster by a wide margin, so 1,000+ yards is not out of the question. He's currently ranked as the #60 dynasty WR by FBG. He won't fall that far in shark drafts, but he's still a monster value play as a WR4-WR5 with WR2 upside.
WR Brandon Tate, Patriots - Tate is a gifted prospect who was just coming into his own last season at North Carolina before suffering a catastrophic knee injury. Outside of the 6 WRs drafted in the first round of this year's NFL draft, I think he has the highest ceiling of any pass catcher in the draft. He's a fluid player with good mobility and hands. With Randy Moss on the wrong side of 30, Tate could emerge as the New England's new Troy Brown a couple years down the road. His price tag is surprisingly high as the current WR45 on the FBG staff rankings, but he'll slip farther than that in many drafts and is an excellent gamble as a long term developmental WR for your bench.
TE Martellus Bennett, Cowboys - Martellus Bennett is the Jonathan Stewart of RBs, but he can be had hundreds of picks later in your drafts. Most people don't know about him and those that do are scared of the fact that he's stuck behind Jason Witten. Take advantage of this situation and grab him cheap. Bennett is a gifted athlete in the mold of Antonio Gates. In addition to being a top football recruit out of high school, he was also one of the top basketball recruits in the country. He was such a good prospect that he was given a second round NBA draft grade. He ultimately decided on football and became a 2nd round pick by the Dallas Cowboys. He's a raw talent who flashed good potential in spot duty last season. There are those around the Cowboys organization who believe he has the potential to become one of the top 2-3 TEs in the entire league. Nevertheless, he routinely slips out of the top 20 TEs in dynasty drafts. Mammoth value at his ADP. He's currently ranked as the 28th best dynasty TE by FBG.
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That's the same comparison I've been making, I think Smith's ceiling is Engram like numbers, where as Nicks has a higher ceiling.
Johnny Lee Higgins - as DHB gets the hype, JLH gets the yardsLeRon McClain - people should be awake on him, they're notBrad Cottam - we're awake, most aren't
Hester is the perfect example of why the learning curve is so steep, even for the premiere college guys that have spent the last 7-8 years of their lives learning how to play wide receiver. It's an extremely difficult position to master beyond just route running and hands. You need to be very adept with reading defenses. Also, the thing that most people don't realize is that it doesn't matter how fast a guy is if he can't set up a defender in and out of his cuts. It seems to me, the Bears saw Hester's KO return skills and thought they could just line him up and he'd Forrest Gump his way into the Pro Bowl.
layer X was a 2nd round draft pick.
Hester is the perfect example of why the learning curve is so steep, even for the premiere college guys that have spent the last 7-8 years of their lives learning how to play wide receiver. It's an extremely difficult position to master beyond just route running and hands. You need to be very adept with reading defenses. Also, the thing that most people don't realize is that it doesn't matter how fast a guy is if he can't set up a defender in and out of his cuts. It seems to me, the Bears saw Hester's KO return skills and thought they could just line him up and he'd Forrest Gump his way into the Pro Bowl.
