Biabreakable
Footballguy
I like it when I am actualy right sometimes.Not making much money lately but arbitrage from pairs is pretty cool.
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My Stock Value Strategy Starts Now (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter David Dodds
- Start date
Otis
Footballguy
Here's why I've given up on FAZ. The market looks like crap today, everything looks to be going in the tanker, and FAZ isn't up a penny right now. Of course, now that Dodds bought it, I think we can expect a 10% swing upwards from here.
Screw it, Im out at $4.48. Ill take my $500 in 10 mins and run.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah that is not one to turn your back on.
Card Trader
Footballguy
XOMA building for another breakout, had some profit taking in the 1.30 range, resistance still there.
5Rings
Lurker
The Ref
Footballguy
Talking more Macro stuff here for 401K's rather then individual stocks here for a minute...
The US Dollar Index is back over a 81 handle, up from a sub 79 handle last week. I think this reason, more then any other reasons, are why a lot of the commodities are down as well as the Emerging Markets and other foreign indexes are off. I for one am not changing course here. The more strength the USDI shows, the more $$ I would shift overseas and to Gold/Silver.
The US Dollar Index is back over a 81 handle, up from a sub 79 handle last week. I think this reason, more then any other reasons, are why a lot of the commodities are down as well as the Emerging Markets and other foreign indexes are off. I for one am not changing course here. The more strength the USDI shows, the more $$ I would shift overseas and to Gold/Silver.
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iowa clubbers
Footballguy
Scottrade also. Nothing yet. I expect it this week.
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Card Trader
Footballguy
Guess not, 423,000 share order on the ask at 1.22
In for 2,000 @ $1.17. Let's spin this roulette wheel!Guess not, 423,000 share order on the ask at 1.22
iowa clubbers
Footballguy
In for 5000 @ $1.20In for 2,000 @ $1.17. Let's spin this roulette wheel!Guess not, 423,000 share order on the ask at 1.22
#@%&$!?
Footballguy
Bought 3k @ $1.20In for 5000 @ $1.20In for 2,000 @ $1.17. Let's spin this roulette wheel!Guess not, 423,000 share order on the ask at 1.22
downanddistance
Footballguy
BTW, nice work on this Ref.
David Dodds
Administrator
It takes awhile I think. No I have not gotten mine yet
David Dodds
Administrator
Good posting. Had I not seen this, I would have committed even more money in.BTW, nice work on this Ref.
David Dodds
Administrator
sold 2,000 FAZ at 4.53 - Profit = $260 -12 = $248
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
Looks HEB insiders are still adding some shares (from .10-.40/share however)http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/defaul...?companyid=9245Still in with 500 shares.Anyone still in HEB? I've still got 500 shares.
Card Trader
Footballguy
Let's hope the momentum continues through the end of the day, would be nice to finish up at 1.30ish
David Dodds
Administrator
NYG Endzone
Footballguy
For HEB Guys, I think the odds are stacked in our favor:
- The FDA Delay, is up for debate, but its a positive sign.
- They recently bonus'ed their execs and insiders are snatching up options. Investors aren't happy about the bonuses, but hopefully HEB is confident in their future.
- Adam F'stein caused panic selling in other biotechs (and now HEB) before approval.
- The Japanese have recently praised Hemispherx (Ampligen Combats H5N1 - Influenza)
- Ampligen (awaiting FDA approval) is already available in Belgium and Canada. They've had years to perfect it.
- Some alternative potential uses of Ampligen include fighting Avian Flu, AIDS, Hepatitis B and Cancer, although studies have been limited.
- 90% phase 3 drugs are approved, "Despite the intense scrutiny a product receives before undergoing expensive and extensive phase 3 testing, approximately 10% of medications fail in phase 3 trials."
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/405869_4
- The FDA Delay, is up for debate, but its a positive sign.
- They recently bonus'ed their execs and insiders are snatching up options. Investors aren't happy about the bonuses, but hopefully HEB is confident in their future.
- Adam F'stein caused panic selling in other biotechs (and now HEB) before approval.
- The Japanese have recently praised Hemispherx (Ampligen Combats H5N1 - Influenza)
- Ampligen (awaiting FDA approval) is already available in Belgium and Canada. They've had years to perfect it.
- Some alternative potential uses of Ampligen include fighting Avian Flu, AIDS, Hepatitis B and Cancer, although studies have been limited.
- 90% phase 3 drugs are approved, "Despite the intense scrutiny a product receives before undergoing expensive and extensive phase 3 testing, approximately 10% of medications fail in phase 3 trials."
http://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/405869_4
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Cromedog
Footballguy
David Dodds
Administrator
Back in wityh FAZ. Bough 2,000 at 4.43
iowa clubbers
Footballguy
4000 of FAZ @ $4.36
I almost pulled the trigger again. The devil almost tempted me. Just like in the movie casino where they kept the whale playing and he eventually lost it all.Im going to go buy a $5 footlong and be happy taking $500 from Satan.
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David Dodds
Administrator
Bought another 2,000 FAZ at 4.30. average cost = 4.365
Boulder Toads
Footballguy
In for 1000 PRGN at $5.00
Chuck Cecil
Footballguy
Any worry that XOMA Announces $12.0 Million Financinghttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/XOMA-Announc...48935.html?.v=1
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NajehHejan
Footballguy
Great post Cromedog. I sure hope so. I tossed and turned all weekend trying to decide whether or not to sell half of my 1,300 shares and to just play with house money. I’ve decided to go all in. When I bought this stock. I knew it was a 50/50 gamble. If the FDA declines, I don’t see the stock going below $0.50 - I could then see the stock regain to the $1.00 range on good news out of Japan buying up some ampligen for the flu. I’m in at $1.48 and would not be thrilled with having to sell for a 33% loss but the upside to holding all of the shares is too huge. I’m a gambler by nature, and gamble is what I’m gonna do.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
The market already punished them on Friday for that news. No worries. Only about 7% dilution – not too bad.
Card Trader
Footballguy
None. HEB did the same thing, then it ran hard.
Card Trader
Footballguy
Disappointing close for XOMA...oh well, up 12% not bad on the day.
The Ref
Footballguy
No worries gentlemen, and I use that term loosely.Even though I am out at a low I am happy I am out because there is no way that PRGN will let this go higher then $5.50. We will need a new company to trade.Good posting. Had I not seen this, I would have committed even more money in.BTW, nice work on this Ref.
Card Trader
Footballguy
Will be looking to get into NEPH first thing in the morning. XOMA should go higher tomorrow on news from ADA and phase 1 results.
The Ref
Footballguy
UNG almost cracked $14 today. It can always get cheaper, but Gas is being kicked around hard right now.
David Dodds
Administrator
Managed to squeeze out a few dollars after I dumped everything:
Year to Date Profit = $130,707
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses = Profit = +476
PRGN = +228
FAZ = +248
Holding 4,000 FAZ at 4.365
Year to Date Profit = $130,707
Last Trades Realized Gains/Losses = Profit = +476
PRGN = +228
FAZ = +248
Holding 4,000 FAZ at 4.365
David Dodds
Administrator
Yes, compare this chart with oil commodities and it doesn't make much sense. Oversupply today, but now the drills are being shutdown. Story sounds familiar. It should because this is exactly what we just experienced with oil. I also think commodities are a great hedge against the US dollar. This screams like a great mid-term buy at these levels to me. I am looking at cost averaging in here soon.
Reaper
Footballguy
Question for ya...We're talking about a company with outstanding fundamentals... A Stock that was being "traded" here a lot in the 5.25 - 5.70 range a bunch...No worries gentlemen, and I use that term loosely.Even though I am out at a low I am happy I am out because there is no way that PRGN will let this go higher then $5.50. We will need a new company to trade.Good posting. Had I not seen this, I would have committed even more money in.BTW, nice work on this Ref.
This raising of money is actually good news in the long term.....
So why wouldn't it even be better if this stock was now "traded in the $5.00 - $5.50 range or so....
You're talking a stock that was MUCH higher a year ago.....
I think the dust just needs to settle on this one.
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djmich
Footballguy
Yah, that's what I was trying to understand earlier. Fundamentals are great, they raise cash.....so bail? I am assuming because Dodds & crew are focused heavily on day trading so see this as a short term issue to take advantage of?Question for ya...We're talking about a company with outstanding fundamentals... A Stock that was being "traded" here a lot in the 5.25 - 5.70 range a bunch...No worries gentlemen, and I use that term loosely.Even though I am out at a low I am happy I am out because there is no way that PRGN will let this go higher then $5.50. We will need a new company to trade.Good posting. Had I not seen this, I would have committed even more money in.BTW, nice work on this Ref.
This raising of money is actually good news in the long term.....
So why wouldn't it even be better if this stock was now "traded in the $5.00 - $5.50 range or so....
You're talking a stock that was MUCH higher a year ago.....
I think the dust just needs to settle on this one.
Otis
Footballguy
Got into CHK options today when the stock dipped to what I thought was the good buy point (near $22). This could be pretty awesome in the next 4-6 months.
David Dodds
Administrator
I think PRGN is a great stock to trade. It's a very well run company. They did not buy any ships when the ship prices were at their peak. They are selling stock because they CRUSHED earnings. And they are using this time to raise capital to either lower debt or buy more ships. Either issue should improve long-term performance. This is just a blip. But with the BDI retreating, we could see this stock hit $4.50 before it hits $6.00. I assess fair value around $5.15. Around $4.85, I am VERY interested in this company. I also will be watching the SEC reports and general news to see what they are doing. They still are also ripe for a takeover.
But it felt right just bailing from PRGN today and letting this news settle a bit.
But it felt right just bailing from PRGN today and letting this news settle a bit.
analog_hiss
Footballguy
I called a buddy this weekend that is Corning, NY. He works for a company that acquires leases for oil/gas rights and they are gobbling up gas rights as cheap as possible...lots of folks need money right now. After talking to him about my trading I asked about CKH and UNG, he suggested they are about as low as they can go (at least long term), but reminded me that oil has to rise a good bit before gas takes off (might even be a year). I added both to our long term investments.Thanks for the heads up on CHK.
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None_More_Black
Footballguy
If you like it, get in with some puts. Sell some 14.00 June calls for .60. They expire next Friday.
downanddistance
Footballguy
Partly because that stock that is trading in the 5-5.25 range is now actually worth that (or less) due to the dilution. And those of us that were holding now owned less of the company at higher prices. Not to say that it can't come back....it quite likely will, but it is going to take a little time. Nice to sidestep a drop when you can. Expect this to go lower before it goes higher as Cantor Fitz dumps shares. Last dilution took 2 months and looking at past charts the stock didn't drop like a stone on the first day or the days after. It more or less gradually decreased with time. Couple this with the BDI potentially falling from it's red hot pace that we have seen. PRGN still looks like a good company, but I think the trend in the short term is down.ETA: DD pretty much said it all before I did.Question for ya...We're talking about a company with outstanding fundamentals... A Stock that was being "traded" here a lot in the 5.25 - 5.70 range a bunch...No worries gentlemen, and I use that term loosely.Even though I am out at a low I am happy I am out because there is no way that PRGN will let this go higher then $5.50. We will need a new company to trade.Good posting. Had I not seen this, I would have committed even more money in.BTW, nice work on this Ref.
This raising of money is actually good news in the long term.....
So why wouldn't it even be better if this stock was now "traded in the $5.00 - $5.50 range or so....
You're talking a stock that was MUCH higher a year ago.....
I think the dust just needs to settle on this one.
But I don't think they are looking to buy new ships. I think they are right up against the liquidity requirements in the agreements with their creditors. I think they did buy ships at higher rates ('07 I think is when they went public) only because the financing rates, and liquidity requirements were based on what the earning rates of the ships and BDI was at the time. As the BDI has been beat down, the valuation of the ships has gone down because they are valued on what they can earn, not on the book value of the ship. With the value of the ships down (as rates are down from 08 and 07) and with the BDI not reaching the levels of those years anytime soon they were potentially going to be in default of certain covenants with regards to the financing. ( Which they have done some renegotiating.)
Boiled down, they look and well run, well managed and they are earning a profit. But they are a young company with alot of debt, and that debt coupled with a huge economic downturn is forcing their hand requiring them to raise some cash.
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St. Louis Bob
Footballguy
I saw it dropped to $4.20 last (Thrusday) when I was gone. Killing me.
Another thing is how shady this seemed. Paragon basically just amended their earlier offering by changing the language to issue another 10 million shares in a confusing way.Even after reading the SEC document it takes a few readings to realize they are diluting another 10 million shares and that it isn't part of the initial offering. the timing makes it confusing, the lack of any kind of press release makes it confusing, the entire thing is shady.I honestly still don't think most shareholders have any clue about the new dilution. I would have never known without someone on here reading through the documents and finding it out themselves.The only Greek company i'll ever invest in again will be gyro businesses. The whole greek dryship sector is corrupt and shady IMO.I did make a lot of money on them (ave buy in 3.79, sold over $5), so this isn't any vendetta against them, but the way they went about this new offering was dishonest.also no one knows what they are doing with the capital. if they are just paying off debt and not expanding the business the shareholders are losing. Too bad we have no clue as Paragon doesn't let their shareholders know anything and dilute their stock with nary a peep.
None_More_Black
Footballguy
Pretty much sums the situation up.
