Brandon Lloyd (1 Viewer)

[thatguy]

I've been thinking a lot about what kind of dynasty value Brandon Lloyd has at this point. 8 weeks of stud production is enough to convince me that this season is no fluke. However, with Denver nearly out of it, I worry that McD might go to Tebow at some point. I think it would be a mistake, as I love what I've seen from Orton, and I think the offense definitely has something to build around. Putting Tebow in will just hamstring this team even more, and not just for this season, IMO, but for years to come. I think it will many years before Tebow is as good of a QB as Orton is right now, and it's possible he never reaches that level. But, I've digressed somewhat.

So, obviously a switch to Tebow would hurt his short term value. But what about next season and beyond? He's only 29 years old, relatively young for a WR. He has always had the talent, but for whatever reason--whether it be lack of opportunity; coaches and QBs not having confidence in him; lack of chemistry with his QB; inconsistent play; or some combination of the abov--he has never put it together... until now. Now that he has, I think Denver, or any team he may end up on, would be foolish not to utilize him just the way he is currently being used.

I think if Orton remains the QB for the remainder of this season, he is easily top 10 in redrafts. And if Orton is the QB next season, I think he would start the season top 10. But that is not a certainty.

He's definitely a tough nut to crack with regards to dynasty value, but I think based on talent and what he's shown this season alone, he does deserve to be somewhere in the top 20--but probably in the latter end, maybe in the 17-20 range. But how long does he have to keep playing at this elite level before we bump him up higher? When does he reach top 15? Top 10?

 

[Touchdown There]

He's only 29 years old, relatively young for a WR.

That is ancient for a WR in the NFL.

 

[Babu Bhatt2]

I don't think he's top 20 yet. I'd value him similarly to Mike Williams SEA. Good production, but uncertain future.

 

[belljr]

The thing is why did it take 7 years for him to now perform. Were the teams that bad before, is he that late of a bloomer, did he finally put it together, is it just a fluke this year.

I'm still on the fluke side of the fence currently. I'd hate to have this be a Michael Clayton rookie season again.

I'd rank him a little lower for dynasty I think

 

[mcintyre1]

He's only 29 years old, relatively young for a WR.

That is ancient for a WR in the NFL.

? Not really at all. But I am still worried that his "breakout season" hasn't happened until now. I think his dynasty value is still very low. If you believe in him, feel free to acquire him, as you can probably get him cheap.

 

[Resident A]

Lloyd has top-10 potential for this year only. Beyond this year, you must consider:

1) QB situation. The WR1 on a team with Tebow at QB would be top-30 at best, probably worse.

2) Demaryius Thomas will get more involved & he is probably more talented than Lloyd, but raw.

3) Lloyd hasn't been the most injury-free player in his career.

If Orton starts all next year, Lloyd could hover around top-10 again. But based on risk of the other factors, I don't think you can value Lloyd as a top-20 in Dynasty formats. He's around 25 in my opinion, with risk.

 

[Topes]

But what about next season and beyond? He's only 29 years old, relatively young for a WR. He has always had the talent, but for whatever reason--whether it be lack of opportunity; coaches and QBs not having confidence in him; lack of chemistry with his QB; inconsistent play; or some combination of the above--he has never put it together... until now. Now that he has, I think Denver, or any team he may end up on, would be foolish not to utilize him just the way he is currently being used.

Well, he's with Denver through 2011. Unless traded or cut, he'll be 31 when he hits his next team.Calling 29 "relatively young for a WR" seems a bit of stretch. The greats often play into their mid-30s. And Lloyd is pretty low mileage for a guy in his eighth season. Many don't last into their 30s because younger players provide more upside and most middling WRs are declining by thirty. That's why Lloyd breaks the mold. But the mold still influences dynasty value.

Lloyd could go in a great number of directions from here on out. As you said, Orton is a big factor.

All these variables clouding his future still place a good damper on his dynasty value, IMO.

how long does he have to keep playing at this elite level before we bump him up higher?

The longer he plays at this level, the higher he gradually creeps, to a point. That point could be T-Day (Tebow named starter) or it could be something else altogether.

What if Denver reels off four straight wins on the backs of Orton-Lloyd? Yeah, not likely, but...

What if Tebow is named starter, and grows an arm and a man-crush for Lloyd? Even less likely, but...

The risk factor isn't highly likely to diminish much over time. The risk factor is big,a nd it's a huge hit on his dynasty value.

Erase 2003 through 2007. This is Lloyd's third season, and he's breaking out. SHWING! He's a dynasty blue-chipper. But that's impossible.

 

[Touchdown There]

He's only 29 years old, relatively young for a WR.

That is ancient for a WR in the NFL.

? Not really at all.

The average career length (in years) of a NFL football player is 4 years. The average age of players in the NFL is 26. This is a young man's game.

 

[todisco1]

He's only 29 years old, relatively young for a WR.

That is ancient for a WR in the NFL.

? Not really at all.

The average career length (in years) of a NFL football player is 4 years. The average age of players in the NFL is 26. This is a young man's game.

But WRs tend to last longer than RBs. They can play well into their thirties.The average career is that short because many players simply aren't good enough to play in the league and end up being cut after a season or two. Guys that stick around can play much longer.

 

[Crippler]

No dynasty value IMO. Not just Thomas taking away time but dont forget Eric Decker there. IF either guy stays healthy they will be the guys. And never count out next years draft where they looks to be 4 studs and a few other pretty good ones. Where these guys go will impact alot of stuff.

 

[Sabertooth]

Does McDaniel have the job security to plug in Tebow? If Tebow isn't ready and goes say 1-5 or something, does McDaniels keep his job next year? Bowen doesn't strike me as an owner that is going to pack it in for the season in week 11 or 12 just to see what he's got.

 

[JMJ]

I think Lloyd continues to perform as a starting fantasy WR next season (meaning top 24 as most fantasy leagues are 12 owners).

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I bought for this year to ride the wave, but I can't see this thing lasting long term. The comp that made the most sense to me was when Muhsin Muhammed had that one year where we went for like 1400/16, and never sniffed those levels again. Just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

 

[Sabertooth]

No dynasty value IMO. Not just Thomas taking away time but dont forget Eric Decker there. IF either guy stays healthy they will be the guys. And never count out next years draft where they looks to be 4 studs and a few other pretty good ones. Where these guys go will impact alot of stuff.

I don't think you could be more off on your analysis. Here is how his age lines up with the rest of the top 10 receivers (and White is the only one within 150 yards of him right now)Lloyd is 29Roddy White - 29Miles Austin - 26Reggie Wayne - 31Terrell Owens - 36Santana Moss - 31Andre Johnson - 29Brandon Marshall - 26Calvin Johnson - 25Marques Colston - 27So he's the same age as White and Johnson (arguably the number 1 and 2 dynasty receivers)He's younger than Wayne, Owens, and Moss.And he's older than Austin, Marshall, Calvin, and Colston. Basically he's right in the middle of the group. He appears to be a late bloomer. He's got more yardage than all these guys....by a lot. He bumped around to several teams earlier but appears to have found his stride. Heck, all of these guys have young bucks waiting in the wings.

 

[JMJ]

No dynasty value IMO. Not just Thomas taking away time but dont forget Eric Decker there. IF either guy stays healthy they will be the guys. And never count out next years draft where they looks to be 4 studs and a few other pretty good ones. Where these guys go will impact alot of stuff.

I don't think you could be more off on your analysis. Here is how his age lines up with the rest of the top 10 receivers (and White is the only one within 150 yards of him right now)Lloyd is 29Roddy White - 29Miles Austin - 26Reggie Wayne - 31Terrell Owens - 36Santana Moss - 31Andre Johnson - 29Brandon Marshall - 26Calvin Johnson - 25Marques Colston - 27So he's the same age as White and Johnson (arguably the number 1 and 2 dynasty receivers)He's younger than Wayne, Owens, and Moss.And he's older than Austin, Marshall, Calvin, and Colston. Basically he's right in the middle of the group. He appears to be a late bloomer. He's got more yardage than all these guys....by a lot. He bumped around to several teams earlier but appears to have found his stride. Heck, all of these guys have young bucks waiting in the wings.

And I personally feel that McDaniels will be back next season, he comes from the Pats offensive system that throws 75% of overall snaps, and there is no reason Orton should not throw for 4,000+ yards again next season. Someone is getting 1,000 yards (or well over) if the QB is throwing for 4,000+. With the rapport him and Lloyd have right now, no reason not to expect it to be Lloyd again.

 

[Babu Bhatt2]

No dynasty value IMO. Not just Thomas taking away time but dont forget Eric Decker there. IF either guy stays healthy they will be the guys. And never count out next years draft where they looks to be 4 studs and a few other pretty good ones. Where these guys go will impact alot of stuff.

I don't think you could be more off on your analysis. Here is how his age lines up with the rest of the top 10 receivers (and White is the only one within 150 yards of him right now)Lloyd is 29Roddy White - 29Miles Austin - 26Reggie Wayne - 31Terrell Owens - 36Santana Moss - 31Andre Johnson - 29Brandon Marshall - 26Calvin Johnson - 25Marques Colston - 27So he's the same age as White and Johnson (arguably the number 1 and 2 dynasty receivers)He's younger than Wayne, Owens, and Moss.And he's older than Austin, Marshall, Calvin, and Colston. Basically he's right in the middle of the group. He appears to be a late bloomer. He's got more yardage than all these guys....by a lot. He bumped around to several teams earlier but appears to have found his stride. Heck, all of these guys have young bucks waiting in the wings.

The yardage and touchdowns that he has accumulated thus far don't necessarily make him valuable going forward. There are four separate arguments in favor of this conclusion, all of which I agree with.(1) The Broncos have been producing in the air, but several factors indicate that this production will not continue. First, they have failed to produce on the ground and are one of the worst rushing teams in the league. They will clearly try to improve in this area, and when they do they will stop passing so much.(2) Relatedly, the Broncos have been losing. Their yards passing have not helped them win many games. McDaniels may be fired, and if he isn't the team may eventually look to Tebow or, as noted earlier, adopt a run-heavy attack. Coaches don't keep their jobs because their receivers are fantasy superstars; they need to win games.(3) Lloyd is one of three Broncos receivers that have been relevant fantasy performers this season, along with Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are waiting in the wings. Moving forward, it is not at all clear that Lloyd will be their top receiver.(4) Lloyd has had flashes of brilliance earlier in his career followed by protracted periods of inadequate production. He has also been injury prone. He is a high-risk commodity whose value could crash if he stops performing.For these reasons, I won't touch Loyd with a ten-foot pole, and I'm sure many others feel the same way.

 

[JMJ]

I bought for this year to ride the wave, but I can't see this thing lasting long term. The comp that made the most sense to me was when Muhsin Muhammed had that one year where we went for like 1400/16, and never sniffed those levels again. Just enjoy the ride while it lasts.

I keep reading this as the reason everyone expects Lloyd to crash and burn. People seem to forget however that Muhammed left Carolina after that huge season and signed a free agent deal with Chicago. His next season he was playing in a different offense, did not know the playbook as well, downgraded his QB, and had a bad season. Many people saw it from a million miles away.There is no reason to expect Lloyd to be anywhere but Denver next season, playing with the same QB, in the same offensive system. I don't see how this is in any way an apples-to-apples comparison.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Orton and Lloyd began developing a connection back in Chicago but then Lloyd went down with an injury. Before that Lloyd didn't exactly have any great QBs throwing to him.

I'm pretty sure Orton will still be Denver's QB next year and I think Lloyd has a chance to stay relevant (Top 24) in keeper and dynasty leagues. He has good competition around him already with Gaffney, Royal and Thomas, but he is till putting up big numbers. I think the only thing that smells like a "fluke" about this year is that Denver has no running game and surely they will want to fix that for next year. If they turn to the running game more then targets will go down for everyone obviously. That would be my main concern.

 

[Rovers]

He's only 29 years old, relatively young for a WR.

That is ancient for a WR in the NFL.

? Not really at all.

The average career length (in years) of a NFL football player is 4 years. The average age of players in the NFL is 26. This is a young man's game.

You don't seem to understand how those numbers relate to NFL players in real terms. For every one player who plays for 10 years, there are five 22 year olds who manage to stay in the league for a year, perhaps two. That skews the numbers downward drastically. How many years does the player who makes it onto a pro bowl roster play for? How many years does any player who becomes even an average starter play for? Compare that to how long the average taxi squad player remains in the league. The turnover at the bottom of rosters is always churning, and those young players have extremely short careers.

29 is hardly ancient for a quality WR, especially one like Lloyd who doesn't have a history of concussions. You are a victim of NFLPA propaganda. They love to hang their hat on those very misleading numbers to further their own agendas.

 

[thatguy]

He's only 29 years old, relatively young for a WR.

That is ancient for a WR in the NFL.

Are you serious?

 

[thatguy]

The thing is why did it take 7 years for him to now perform. Were the teams that bad before, is he that late of a bloomer, did he finally put it together, is it just a fluke this year.I'm still on the fluke side of the fence currently. I'd hate to have this be a Michael Clayton rookie season again.I'd rank him a little lower for dynasty I think

Have you watched him play this season? I'm not saying you haven't, just asking... I think most people who have actually watched every Denver game would tell you that what he's doing is legit.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

No dynasty value IMO. Not just Thomas taking away time but dont forget Eric Decker there. IF either guy stays healthy they will be the guys. And never count out next years draft where they looks to be 4 studs and a few other pretty good ones. Where these guys go will impact alot of stuff.

I don't think you could be more off on your analysis. Here is how his age lines up with the rest of the top 10 receivers (and White is the only one within 150 yards of him right now)Lloyd is 29Roddy White - 29Miles Austin - 26Reggie Wayne - 31Terrell Owens - 36Santana Moss - 31Andre Johnson - 29Brandon Marshall - 26Calvin Johnson - 25Marques Colston - 27So he's the same age as White and Johnson (arguably the number 1 and 2 dynasty receivers)He's younger than Wayne, Owens, and Moss.And he's older than Austin, Marshall, Calvin, and Colston. Basically he's right in the middle of the group. He appears to be a late bloomer. He's got more yardage than all these guys....by a lot. He bumped around to several teams earlier but appears to have found his stride. Heck, all of these guys have young bucks waiting in the wings.

White and Johnson are NOT #1 and #2 and it's not close IMO. The #1 is Calvin Johnson and the REASON is that he is both very talented and very young. I don't see any way any dynasty team trades Calvin for any WR straight up at this point. And that is exactly why Lloyd doesn't have a ton of dynasty value. HE has SOME, but not a lot.As an owner, I'd love to be wrong about this. I'll probably try to move Lloyd for whatever I can get for him at the end of this season, but I'm thinking it won't be much. Nobody's going to invest heavily in him given his history and his age.

 

[thatguy]

No dynasty value IMO. Not just Thomas taking away time but dont forget Eric Decker there. IF either guy stays healthy they will be the guys. And never count out next years draft where they looks to be 4 studs and a few other pretty good ones. Where these guys go will impact alot of stuff.

I don't think you could be more off on your analysis. Here is how his age lines up with the rest of the top 10 receivers (and White is the only one within 150 yards of him right now)Lloyd is 29

Roddy White - 29

Miles Austin - 26

Reggie Wayne - 31

Terrell Owens - 36

Santana Moss - 31

Andre Johnson - 29

Brandon Marshall - 26

Calvin Johnson - 25

Marques Colston - 27

So he's the same age as White and Johnson (arguably the number 1 and 2 dynasty receivers)

He's younger than Wayne, Owens, and Moss.

And he's older than Austin, Marshall, Calvin, and Colston.

Basically he's right in the middle of the group. He appears to be a late bloomer. He's got more yardage than all these guys....by a lot. He bumped around to several teams earlier but appears to have found his stride. Heck, all of these guys have young bucks waiting in the wings.

White and Johnson are NOT #1 and #2 and it's not close IMO. The #1 is Calvin Johnson and the REASON is that he is both very talented and very young. I don't see any way any dynasty team trades Calvin for any WR straight up at this point. And that is exactly why Lloyd doesn't have a ton of dynasty value. HE has SOME, but not a lot.As an owner, I'd love to be wrong about this. I'll probably try to move Lloyd for whatever I can get for him at the end of this season, but I'm thinking it won't be much. Nobody's going to invest heavily in him given his history and his age.

Perhaps that will be a blessing for you, because I think it would be foolish to write off what he has done this season and sell for peanuts. It's one thing to try to sell, but if peanuts are all you can expect to get, you'd be very wise to hold.

 

[Hugonel]

He's only 29 years old, relatively young for a WR.

That is ancient for a WR in the NFL.

Are you serious?

This. It's quite common for a good WR to play well into his 30s. The age of the NFL is diluted/lessened by guys that come into the league and either 1) get hurt and retire or 2) wash out. Not saying he's young, but he ain't old either. I'd have no problem drafting him in a dynasty and banking on several years' production.

 

[Rovers]

The risk with Lloyd in dynasty formats is the stability of the HC and of the starting QB. Any change in offensive philosophy or at the QB position could spell disaster for Lloyd. Not putting him in Fitz's class as an NFL WR, but even great ones like Fitz can suffer miserably when either of these two situations change. Double whammy if it's both a QB change and a change in offensive game planning and schemes.

Take B Marshall out of the Denver offense and he starts to put up pedestrian numbers in Miami, a run oriented offense with a QB who is not playing well.

Right now, if nothing changes, I believe Lloyd is very legit and his numbers should keep him in top 15 minimum, likely top 10 for a couple of years. If something changes in Denver, like Tebow starting, Lloyd goes back to FF irrelevance, comparitively speaking. His age certainly has nothing to do with his 3 year outlook. His situation will dictate his value... and his risk.

 

[Sabertooth]

(1) The Broncos have been producing in the air, but several factors indicate that this production will not continue. First, they have failed to produce on the ground and are one of the worst rushing teams in the league. They will clearly try to improve in this area, and when they do they will stop passing so much.(2) Relatedly, the Broncos have been losing. Their yards passing have not helped them win many games. McDaniels may be fired, and if he isn't the team may eventually look to Tebow or, as noted earlier, adopt a run-heavy attack. Coaches don't keep their jobs because their receivers are fantasy superstars; they need to win games.(3) Lloyd is one of three Broncos receivers that have been relevant fantasy performers this season, along with Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney. Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker are waiting in the wings. Moving forward, it is not at all clear that Lloyd will be their top receiver.(4) Lloyd has had flashes of brilliance earlier in his career followed by protracted periods of inadequate production. He has also been injury prone. He is a high-risk commodity whose value could crash if he stops performing.For these reasons, I won't touch Loyd with a ten-foot pole, and I'm sure many others feel the same way.

1) You are assuming they will succeed in this. Running the ball isn't as simple as calling a few more run plays. They have a decent back but nothing great. Their linemen do not open holes. If they really dedicated to rushing more, it might take two or three seasons to bare fruit.2) McDaniels is not going to play Tebow to the detriment of his own employment. Coaches get paid to win. Orton is easily the best chance this team has to win. 3) None of the other receivers are close to him yet. As you say, the team is already distributing the ball quite a bit. I don't think Demaryus Thomas has shown much of anything. If Lloyd is in trouble because of Thomas, what type of trouble is Austin in with Bryant breathing down his neck?4) He's higher risk but much lower cost than guys like Andre, Nicks and the like. All of their value plummets if they stop performing. I like his risk/reward ratio just fine.

 

[Sabertooth]

No dynasty value IMO. Not just Thomas taking away time but dont forget Eric Decker there. IF either guy stays healthy they will be the guys. And never count out next years draft where they looks to be 4 studs and a few other pretty good ones. Where these guys go will impact alot of stuff.

I don't think you could be more off on your analysis. Here is how his age lines up with the rest of the top 10 receivers (and White is the only one within 150 yards of him right now)Lloyd is 29Roddy White - 29Miles Austin - 26Reggie Wayne - 31Terrell Owens - 36Santana Moss - 31Andre Johnson - 29Brandon Marshall - 26Calvin Johnson - 25Marques Colston - 27So he's the same age as White and Johnson (arguably the number 1 and 2 dynasty receivers)He's younger than Wayne, Owens, and Moss.And he's older than Austin, Marshall, Calvin, and Colston. Basically he's right in the middle of the group. He appears to be a late bloomer. He's got more yardage than all these guys....by a lot. He bumped around to several teams earlier but appears to have found his stride. Heck, all of these guys have young bucks waiting in the wings.

White and Johnson are NOT #1 and #2 and it's not close IMO. The #1 is Calvin Johnson and the REASON is that he is both very talented and very young. I don't see any way any dynasty team trades Calvin for any WR straight up at this point. And that is exactly why Lloyd doesn't have a ton of dynasty value. HE has SOME, but not a lot.As an owner, I'd love to be wrong about this. I'll probably try to move Lloyd for whatever I can get for him at the end of this season, but I'm thinking it won't be much. Nobody's going to invest heavily in him given his history and his age.

Calvin is number 1, really? I don't know how far you look into the future in a dynasty but I only look two to three years down the road at most. Partly because situations are so fluid and partly because of the Mayan calendar. Be that as it may, I think Calvin is great. But Calvin is still not having the season Lloyd is. He is over 350 yards behind Lloyd right now. He is buoyed by his touchdowns right now (which admittedly he seems to be able to score at will). I'm not arguing that Lloyd is a nicer option than Calvin even right now. What I'm saying is this. Lloyd's value right now is close to (or higher - in some cases much much higher) than anyone in that top ten list. His price tag is lower than all but Santana and TO. So he's definitely a buy low candidate as crazy as that sounds for a guy leading the league in receiving yards by 130 yards.

 

[loose circuits]

Lloyd has always been a guy that has made amazing plays since his days in San Fran. The problem was that he was so inconsistent that he couldn't put it all together. After watching quite a few of his games this year, I can say with certainty that he has found the consistency he was lacking. The offense runs through him and he has made some amazing plays without the bonehead drops. No reason to think this won't continue for at least the next few years. I'm holding in the league I have him as you probably won't be able to get value that is comparable to the upside he has already shown.

Orton is starting through 2011 and his contract extension pretty much guaranteed that...

 

[Sabertooth]

Some guys take a lot longer to mature. I don't know anything about him as a person. But I know I was a different person at 29 than when I was younger. Maybe he realized what was at stake and finally decided to put in the work required.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

No dynasty value IMO. Not just Thomas taking away time but dont forget Eric Decker there. IF either guy stays healthy they will be the guys. And never count out next years draft where they looks to be 4 studs and a few other pretty good ones. Where these guys go will impact alot of stuff.

I don't think you could be more off on your analysis. Here is how his age lines up with the rest of the top 10 receivers (and White is the only one within 150 yards of him right now)Lloyd is 29Roddy White - 29Miles Austin - 26Reggie Wayne - 31Terrell Owens - 36Santana Moss - 31Andre Johnson - 29Brandon Marshall - 26Calvin Johnson - 25Marques Colston - 27So he's the same age as White and Johnson (arguably the number 1 and 2 dynasty receivers)He's younger than Wayne, Owens, and Moss.And he's older than Austin, Marshall, Calvin, and Colston. Basically he's right in the middle of the group. He appears to be a late bloomer. He's got more yardage than all these guys....by a lot. He bumped around to several teams earlier but appears to have found his stride. Heck, all of these guys have young bucks waiting in the wings.

White and Johnson are NOT #1 and #2 and it's not close IMO. The #1 is Calvin Johnson and the REASON is that he is both very talented and very young. I don't see any way any dynasty team trades Calvin for any WR straight up at this point. And that is exactly why Lloyd doesn't have a ton of dynasty value. HE has SOME, but not a lot.As an owner, I'd love to be wrong about this. I'll probably try to move Lloyd for whatever I can get for him at the end of this season, but I'm thinking it won't be much. Nobody's going to invest heavily in him given his history and his age.

Calvin is number 1, really? I don't know how far you look into the future in a dynasty but I only look two to three years down the road at most. Partly because situations are so fluid and partly because of the Mayan calendar. Be that as it may, I think Calvin is great. But Calvin is still not having the season Lloyd is. He is over 350 yards behind Lloyd right now. He is buoyed by his touchdowns right now (which admittedly he seems to be able to score at will). I'm not arguing that Lloyd is a nicer option than Calvin even right now. What I'm saying is this. Lloyd's value right now is close to (or higher - in some cases much much higher) than anyone in that top ten list. His price tag is lower than all but Santana and TO. So he's definitely a buy low candidate as crazy as that sounds for a guy leading the league in receiving yards by 130 yards.

Yeah, I have Calvin at #1 by a long shot. This is an age-old discussion (no pun intended), but the two to three year window technique makes no sense to me at all. At the end of two to three years, those guys will very possibly have minimal value, and Calvin (who is already better than almost everyone RIGHT NOW) will be entering his peak.If Brandon Lloyd continues what he is doing right now for the next several years, I would guess that it would be the first time in NFL history that that has happened (having a true "break out" at his age). As such, it's not something I'd like to bet on happening.Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.

 

[Team Legacy]

2 weeks ago, I traded him straight up for Chris Ivory. Running backs are hard to come by and I'm not convinced of his long term future. Still feels like a one year fix.

 

[DesmondBishop]

2 weeks ago, I traded him straight up for Chris Ivory. Running backs are hard to come by and I'm not convinced of his long term future. Still feels like a one year fix.

Wow, glad you are not off setting the balance in any of my leagues. So Lloyd who has been a stud all year hasn't convinced you of anything, but Ivory, who cant block or catch and has 1 good game ever, has shown you enough to make that trade straight up? Yikes. Honestly can not even come up with a scenario to make this trade even make sense, no disrespect intended, I just can't even begin to fathom that deal. I have Ivory in 2 Dynasty leagues so I hope he can become a factor, but at this time he has a lot to over come, like blocking, catching, and holding on to the football.

 

[Donnybrook]

I would be wary. What makes people think that Lloyd is not a one year wonder like Joey Galloway or Antonio Bryant?

 

[belljr]

The thing is why did it take 7 years for him to now perform. Were the teams that bad before, is he that late of a bloomer, did he finally put it together, is it just a fluke this year.I'm still on the fluke side of the fence currently. I'd hate to have this be a Michael Clayton rookie season again.I'd rank him a little lower for dynasty I think

Have you watched him play this season? I'm not saying you haven't, just asking... I think most people who have actually watched every Denver game would tell you that what he's doing is legit.

Yes, and I saw Michael Clayton did his rookie season. I owned Lloyd for 3 years and he showed flashes but never held it long term so my view may be a bit tainted but I'm not completely sold long term this sticks. I can't see how you can throw away is prior track record and say OK now he's awesome. His "fails" are more prevelant than his success. I'm not sayin from here on out he doesn't perform well and his stock rise but right not I'm still hesitant. I didn't say he had no value, just that I would be hestiant to rank him that high.

 

[Sabertooth]

No dynasty value IMO. Not just Thomas taking away time but dont forget Eric Decker there. IF either guy stays healthy they will be the guys. And never count out next years draft where they looks to be 4 studs and a few other pretty good ones. Where these guys go will impact alot of stuff.

I don't think you could be more off on your analysis. Here is how his age lines up with the rest of the top 10 receivers (and White is the only one within 150 yards of him right now)Lloyd is 29Roddy White - 29Miles Austin - 26Reggie Wayne - 31Terrell Owens - 36Santana Moss - 31Andre Johnson - 29Brandon Marshall - 26Calvin Johnson - 25Marques Colston - 27So he's the same age as White and Johnson (arguably the number 1 and 2 dynasty receivers)He's younger than Wayne, Owens, and Moss.And he's older than Austin, Marshall, Calvin, and Colston. Basically he's right in the middle of the group. He appears to be a late bloomer. He's got more yardage than all these guys....by a lot. He bumped around to several teams earlier but appears to have found his stride. Heck, all of these guys have young bucks waiting in the wings.

White and Johnson are NOT #1 and #2 and it's not close IMO. The #1 is Calvin Johnson and the REASON is that he is both very talented and very young. I don't see any way any dynasty team trades Calvin for any WR straight up at this point. And that is exactly why Lloyd doesn't have a ton of dynasty value. HE has SOME, but not a lot.As an owner, I'd love to be wrong about this. I'll probably try to move Lloyd for whatever I can get for him at the end of this season, but I'm thinking it won't be much. Nobody's going to invest heavily in him given his history and his age.

Calvin is number 1, really? I don't know how far you look into the future in a dynasty but I only look two to three years down the road at most. Partly because situations are so fluid and partly because of the Mayan calendar. Be that as it may, I think Calvin is great. But Calvin is still not having the season Lloyd is. He is over 350 yards behind Lloyd right now. He is buoyed by his touchdowns right now (which admittedly he seems to be able to score at will). I'm not arguing that Lloyd is a nicer option than Calvin even right now. What I'm saying is this. Lloyd's value right now is close to (or higher - in some cases much much higher) than anyone in that top ten list. His price tag is lower than all but Santana and TO. So he's definitely a buy low candidate as crazy as that sounds for a guy leading the league in receiving yards by 130 yards.

Yeah, I have Calvin at #1 by a long shot. This is an age-old discussion (no pun intended), but the two to three year window technique makes no sense to me at all. At the end of two to three years, those guys will very possibly have minimal value, and Calvin (who is already better than almost everyone RIGHT NOW) will be entering his peak.If Brandon Lloyd continues what he is doing right now for the next several years, I would guess that it would be the first time in NFL history that that has happened (having a true "break out" at his age). As such, it's not something I'd like to bet on happening.Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.

I'd also be interested to see how much of a statistical anamoly Lloyd's season is.

 

[Sabertooth]

I would be wary. What makes people think that Lloyd is not a one year wonder like Joey Galloway or Antonio Bryant?

Galloway has six seasons of 1000+ yards. Antonio Bryant has had injuries. You have fair points, I just think your comps might be off.

 

[The Comedian]

He's only 29 years old, relatively young for a WR.

That is ancient for a WR in the NFL.

? Not really at all.

The average career length (in years) of a NFL football player is 4 years. The average age of players in the NFL is 26. This is a young man's game.

Dear Velveeeta,I miss you too.Sincerely,The Point

 

[JMJ]

You obviously need to have talent to do what Lloyd is doing this season (wasn't it just 3 years ago that this guy was one of everybody's super sleepers? The talent is obviously there), but I believe that Lloyd is more a product of Denver's system than anything else. And you know what? I don't see why so many feel that is a bad thing.

Denver's system is built around the pass, they pass early and often, and while they will certainly look to address the inefficiencies in their running game this off season, they are not going to go from worst to first in that category so there is no reason to believe the philosophy of the system will change at all next season.

Kyle Orton just signed a contract extension with Denver and makes more money than Tim Tebow. He is also playing at a level few QBs in the NFL are playing at and Tebow remains a major project at the QB position in the NFL. Anyone thinking Tebow is a threat to taking Orton's job next season is out of their mind. And correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Denver still paying Mike Shannhan a bunch of money? So they are already paying Shannahan, and paying McDaniels (who is not doing a terrible job), if they were to fire McDaniels and replace him with someone else they would then be paying 3 head coaches at once next season. Not happening.

McDaniels will be back next season, Orton will be starting next season, and the offensive system will be the same next season. All that points to Lloyd continuing at a high-level of play. Will he be the #1 WR in all the NFL next season? Probably not. Almost certainly not. Other than Andre Johnson in 2008 and 2009, who was the last WR to be #1 in the NFL in consecutive years? Should he remain top 24 (thus making him an every week starter in most all fantasy football leagues)? Almost certainly.

Buy low if you can in keeper leagues. If you already own ... don't sell.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I still can't believe he'll keep it up for the rest of THIS season, nevermind next year. It's unfair but he's the reason we all have a bias against him.

 

[thatguy]

The thing is why did it take 7 years for him to now perform. Were the teams that bad before, is he that late of a bloomer, did he finally put it together, is it just a fluke this year.I'm still on the fluke side of the fence currently. I'd hate to have this be a Michael Clayton rookie season again.I'd rank him a little lower for dynasty I think

Have you watched him play this season? I'm not saying you haven't, just asking... I think most people who have actually watched every Denver game would tell you that what he's doing is legit.

Yes, and I saw Michael Clayton did his rookie season. I owned Lloyd for 3 years and he showed flashes but never held it long term so my view may be a bit tainted but I'm not completely sold long term this sticks. I can't see how you can throw away is prior track record and say OK now he's awesome. His "fails" are more prevelant than his success. I'm not sayin from here on out he doesn't perform well and his stock rise but right not I'm still hesitant. I didn't say he had no value, just that I would be hestiant to rank him that high.

I was replying to you saying that you think his production this season is a fluke. I watched Clayton play too, and while he was impressive, and even more impressive for having been a rookie, he didn't ooze talent the way Lloyd has this season. In any case, all I'm saying is I don't know how you can say that this season has been a fluke. 8 games is a long time for fluky play to keep up, and the manner in which he has produced has been nothing short of spectacular.

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

I love Lloyd. I think he's here to stay and have been trying to get him in every league I can. Like others have said some guys take a while to mature.

Those saying he's a fluke need to tune into the Denver games. I once thought that as well until I saw a whole game. His talent is very very real.

 

[Hugonel]

I'm not a Lloyd detractor. Just tried to trade for him.

But how do we account for his 53% reception rate? Owens' is lower than that, but we also know Owens doesn't have great hands, despite his other great attributes and stats.

Just going deep routes all the time so the average is lower? His yards/reception is certain very high.

 

[Sabertooth]

I'm not a Lloyd detractor. Just tried to trade for him.But how do we account for his 53% reception rate? Owens' is lower than that, but we also know Owens doesn't have great hands, despite his other great attributes and stats.Just going deep routes all the time so the average is lower? His yards/reception is certain very high.

I think that is part of it. Not sure about all of it.

 

[karmarooster]

Lloyd's dynasty value (or lack thereof) has nothing to do with his old age (or lack thereof) and everything to do with his overall talent (or lack thereof) and the overall stability of his situation (or lack thereof).

Probably the Fantasy MVP for the year (Because of ADP in comparison to Foster). But I don't see much value 2010+ because:

(1) his insane YPC is unsustainable

(2) he never put much of a season together before this and could very well be a flash in the pan

(3) his success seems to be a result of a lack of running game, leaky defense, and lack of other talented WRs.

 

[LittlePhatty]

I'd say BUY Lloyd in a Dynasty. His breakout is the real deal, but all of the doubt expressed in this thread means he can still be bought relatively cheap.

The main question is "why now? where has he been?"

I really think he was on track to a breakout season in 2008 with the Bears (with Orton as his QB, not a coincidence). But he was sidelined with an injury.

Before that:

2003 - San Francisco

2004 - San Francisco

2005 - San Francisco

2006 - Washington

2007 - Washington

...he wasn't exactly a part of any offense that was producing stud WRs year after year. Out of those 5 years, only one 1,000 yard season was produced by any WR on Lloyd's team and that was Terrell Owens in 2003, Lloyd's rookie year.

Orton will be their QB next year too. He likes Lloyd and knows how to get the ball to him. As I said before, my only concern is Denver will need to develop a running game next year, but even so I think you can count on Lloyd to be at least a solid WR2 (Top 24) going into next year.

 

[Babu Bhatt2]

I'd say BUY Lloyd in a Dynasty. His breakout is the real deal, but all of the doubt expressed in this thread means he can still be bought relatively cheap.The main question is "why now? where has he been?"I really think he was on track to a breakout season in 2008 with the Bears (with Orton as his QB, not a coincidence). But he was sidelined with an injury.Before that:2003 - San Francisco2004 - San Francisco2005 - San Francisco2006 - Washington2007 - Washington...he wasn't exactly a part of any offense that was producing stud WRs year after year. Out of those 5 years, only one 1,000 yard season was produced by any WR on Lloyd's team and that was Terrell Owens in 2003, Lloyd's rookie year. Orton will be their QB next year too. He likes Lloyd and knows how to get the ball to him. As I said before, my only concern is Denver will need to develop a running game next year, but even so I think you can count on Lloyd to be at least a solid WR2 (Top 24) going into next year.

Lloyd was goddawful with the skins in 2006-2007. You can't pin his lack of performance on the team. He played about as badly as a receiver can play, and was eventually benched for in favor of James Thrash.

 

[Sabertooth]

I already bought him in dynasty. I paid Percy Harvin + a mid-to-late first rounder. I couldn't be happier with that decision.

 

[Dr. Awesome]

I already bought him in dynasty. I paid Percy Harvin + a mid-to-late first rounder. I couldn't be happier with that decision.

Ouch.

 

[Slevin Kelevra]

30 yrs old in a career year

Pass

 

[Donnybrook]

I already bought him in dynasty. I paid Percy Harvin + a mid-to-late first rounder. I couldn't be happier with that decision.

I wouldn't give up Harvin for him let alone a first round pick.