Tim Tebow going forward? Where does he rank among QBs? (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

And so it begins! Doubt I will have Tebow on any of my teams next year as someone will probably pull the trigger in the first 5 rounds.

If Tebow is not drafted in the first 5 rounds, I would seriously question the league I was playing in.

 

[atl3695]

And so it begins! Doubt I will have Tebow on any of my teams next year as someone will probably pull the trigger in the first 5 rounds.

If Tebow is not drafted in the first 5 rounds, I would seriously question the league I was playing in.

In most leagues I played in the first five rounds were limited to 6 or at most 7 qb's. As stated earlier, there are too many question marks to put a firm ranking on him. You said he is a top 5 qb but what 2 of Vick, Brees, Brady, Romo, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning do you take him over? So first five rounds is definitely NOT a no brainer. Then you really couldnt fault anyone for taking Schaub, Flacco, Big Ben, and maybe Freeman and Eli over him either. So you can make a good case for him being a borderline top 10 qb and EASILY not being drafted in the top 5 rounds. However, most leagues will probably have 1 overzealous owner who predicts 3500 passing, 800 rushing, and 30+ total TD's who pulls the trigger much too early.Since you like over/unders, these are more realistic2600 yards passing, 18 Td's, 14 int.500 rushing, 6 TD's.Those numbers would be good for 260 pts in my league and fall into the qb 9-12 range and 68 pts short of top 5.

 

[Concept Coop]

And so it begins! Doubt I will have Tebow on any of my teams next year as someone will probably pull the trigger in the first 5 rounds.

If Tebow is not drafted in the first 5 rounds, I would seriously question the league I was playing in.

In most leagues I played in the first five rounds were limited to 6 or at most 7 qb's. As stated earlier, there are too many question marks to put a firm ranking on him, but who of Vick, Brees, Rodgers, Romo, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning to you take him over? So first five rounds is definitely NOT a no brainer. Then you really couldnt fault anyone for taking Schaub, Flacco, Big Ben, and maybe Freeman and Eli over him either. So you can make a good case for him being a borderline top 10 qb and EASILY not being drafted in the top 5 rounds. However, most leagues will probably have 1 overzealous owner who predicts 3500 passing, 800 rushing, and 30+ total TD's who pulls the trigger much to early.

Fair enough. A lot would depend on that format of the league. But in leagues where QBs aren't as important, due to scoring, Tebow has reasons to bump him up. Scoring 6s as opposed to 4s adds up.You list Rodgers twice. I would consider taking him over Manning, Rivers or Romo, depending on the off season. As for the rest, I would take him over Schaub, Flacco, Ben and the rest. There is no way I am taking a low end QB1 over him. The reward is worth the risk, in my mind. I can still compete if I pick Flacco over Tebow and end up regretting it. Flacco is not going to outscore a Palmer, Orton, or Cassel enough to ruin my season. On the other hand, Tebow putting up top 4 or 5 numbers could greatly help my season.

 

[TobiasFunke]

If you read the last half of my post, you'll see that I totally agree with you regarding his fantasy value. I only disagreed- strongly- with the passing projections. You can't simply say extrapolating was "justified" without explaining yourself. Why is it OK to project Tebow to continue to throw for 225 yds and 1.6 TDs, but not to expect Grossman to go for 300+ yards and 2+ TDs? You're looking at the same data set over the same time frame.

You say "if he is an average of even less than average NFL passing QB ..." what evidence do we really have to suggest that he'd be anywhere close to average? He completed 50% of his passes. I didn't watch every play he made, but I don't remember seeing a single impressive throw. And virtually all NFL personnel executives agree wit h me on that.

In time he might be a below average to average passing QB, in which case he'd be a fantasy superstar. Heck, even now he's a potential fantasy star simply for his two-way value, much like Vick early in his career. But projecting him as a top ten passer is absurd.

You ask what evidence that he is "anywhere close to average" as a passer? But you didn't watch him play? Well, you could start by watching the film of his three games. I did and based on what I saw he is at this time an average NFL passer. The preseason talk is at this time--way out of date and discredited. You say "virtually all NFL personnel executives agree with me on that." What evidence do you have that virtually "all" agree? There are 32 teams so you are saying that 29 or 30 active NFL GMs are on record saying Tebow can't throw? I remember hearing some talking heads who aren't good enough to be NFL GMs say that, but not too many active ones.

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/0900...fney-50-yd-pass

I watched him play. I just didn't watch every snap, and thought I should admit as much.You watched every play and you saw an average NFL passer? You do realize that he completed only 50% of his passes, right? Or do you think that's average?

You gave us one link- one from three games- and it's far from a great pass. Gaffney beat the defenders deep- a good pass there results in a TD. Tebow forced him to slow up and drift right and off-balance. It's a fine pass- certainly nothing "bad" about it it- but it's hardly spectacular. If that's your best evidence of his passing ability from over 80 pass attempts, he may be even worse than I'm giving him credit for.

He's also a rookie who has started 3 games. Not sure how anyone can dismiss him as below average after 3 games. I think for being considered so raw he did extremely well in his first action. And he should improve.

I don't doubt that he will improve. I question whether he'll improve enough to post numbers near or in the top ten in yardage and TDs, as you predicted.Again, to be clear- I don't think you're far off on your overall point, because I think he has huge potential as a rushing QB. I was just questioning your passing projections for him for next season.

 

[atl3695]

And so it begins! Doubt I will have Tebow on any of my teams next year as someone will probably pull the trigger in the first 5 rounds.

If Tebow is not drafted in the first 5 rounds, I would seriously question the league I was playing in.

In most leagues I played in the first five rounds were limited to 6 or at most 7 qb's. As stated earlier, there are too many question marks to put a firm ranking on him, but who of Vick, Brees, Rodgers, Romo, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning to you take him over? So first five rounds is definitely NOT a no brainer. Then you really couldnt fault anyone for taking Schaub, Flacco, Big Ben, and maybe Freeman and Eli over him either. So you can make a good case for him being a borderline top 10 qb and EASILY not being drafted in the top 5 rounds. However, most leagues will probably have 1 overzealous owner who predicts 3500 passing, 800 rushing, and 30+ total TD's who pulls the trigger much to early.

Fair enough. A lot would depend on that format of the league. But in leagues where QBs aren't as important, due to scoring, Tebow has reasons to bump him up. Scoring 6s as opposed to 4s adds up.You list Rodgers twice. I would consider taking him over Manning, Rivers or Romo, depending on the off season. As for the rest, I would take him over Schaub, Flacco, Ben and the rest. There is no way I am taking a low end QB1 over him. The reward is worth the risk, in my mind. I can still compete if I pick Flacco over Tebow and end up regretting it. Flacco is not going to outscore a Palmer, Orton, or Cassel enough to ruin my season. On the other hand, Tebow putting up top 4 or 5 numbers could greatly help my season.

Edited to add Brady to top 7. I see no offseason circumstances where I take Tebow over Rivers or Manning. He is a young qb and young qb's struggle. If Tebow's best case upside is equal to Manning or Rivers standard year, why risk it? If Tebow runs for 8 td's instead of throwing, those are 16 extra points. That point a game wont make up for his stinkers that he is bound to put up as a raw qb. Tebow should be a great matchup qb next year, but relying on him as an every week starter is asking for trouble.

 

[Concept Coop]

And so it begins! Doubt I will have Tebow on any of my teams next year as someone will probably pull the trigger in the first 5 rounds.

If Tebow is not drafted in the first 5 rounds, I would seriously question the league I was playing in.

In most leagues I played in the first five rounds were limited to 6 or at most 7 qb's. As stated earlier, there are too many question marks to put a firm ranking on him, but who of Vick, Brees, Rodgers, Romo, Rivers, Rodgers, Manning to you take him over? So first five rounds is definitely NOT a no brainer. Then you really couldnt fault anyone for taking Schaub, Flacco, Big Ben, and maybe Freeman and Eli over him either. So you can make a good case for him being a borderline top 10 qb and EASILY not being drafted in the top 5 rounds. However, most leagues will probably have 1 overzealous owner who predicts 3500 passing, 800 rushing, and 30+ total TD's who pulls the trigger much to early.

Fair enough. A lot would depend on that format of the league. But in leagues where QBs aren't as important, due to scoring, Tebow has reasons to bump him up. Scoring 6s as opposed to 4s adds up.You list Rodgers twice. I would consider taking him over Manning, Rivers or Romo, depending on the off season. As for the rest, I would take him over Schaub, Flacco, Ben and the rest. There is no way I am taking a low end QB1 over him. The reward is worth the risk, in my mind. I can still compete if I pick Flacco over Tebow and end up regretting it. Flacco is not going to outscore a Palmer, Orton, or Cassel enough to ruin my season. On the other hand, Tebow putting up top 4 or 5 numbers could greatly help my season.

Edited to add Brady to top 7. I see no offseason circumstances where I take Tebow over Rivers or Manning. He is a young qb and young qb's struggle. If Tebow's best case upside is equal to Manning or Rivers standard year, why risk it? If Tebow runs for 8 td's instead of throwing, those are 16 extra points. That point a game wont make up for his stinkers that he is bound to put up as a raw qb. Tebow should be a great matchup qb next year, but relying on him as an every week starter is asking for trouble.

His upside is higher than Manning and Brady. I have clearly displayed how Tebow can score 20+ points a game by simply managing 200 yards, 1.4 TDs a game through the air. That is with ONLY scoring 6 rushing points a game - he is currently doing a lot more than that. I honestly feel like 650 yards and 8 TDs would be a better projection and that equates to 7 points a game, just on the ground. I feel like both the passing numbers and rushing numbers he needs to score 20 points a game are conservative. If he could somehow manage to put up the rushing numbers he is now, even with a decrease in passing yards and TDs, we are talking about Michael Vick like numbers - that is his upside. It is not simply that 8 of his TDs happen to be worth 6 points, thus he gets an additional 16 points. . Tebow could be getting the goal line back work AND passing duties. That means more TDs in general, not just that 8 of his happen to account for 6 points instead of 4. When you look at what he has done, and try to project next season, you will see how much potential he has to score. Before you do that - like me before I did - you will continue to think it is crazy to take him over Manning and Brady. How about you do a seasons projetion for Tebow, then get back to me and tell me what you came up with.

 

[humpback]

Seriously, if you had a FF draft today, you'd take Tebow over Schaub and Ben, and "maybe" over Peyton, Rivers and Romo? We don't even know if he's going to be starting next year.

 

[Concept Coop]

Seriously, if you had a FF draft today, you'd take Tebow over Schaub and Ben, and "maybe" over Peyton, Rivers and Romo? We don't even know if he's going to be starting next year.

First of all, you don't bench a QB who you draft in the first round, when they play as well as Tebow did. Especially not when it is Tim Tebow. Let's not forget that the GM was there when Tebow was drafted, as was the owner. Before questioning me, how about you do the projections, do the math, and tell me what he will score. "All great truths begin as blasphemies." I know how crazy it sounds, again, until you sit down and do the math.

I absoultely think Tebow can average something close to: 200 yards 1.4TD/1.0INT passing and 37 yards 0.5TDs rushing. Do you not?

No QB has ever had a 4,800/48TD/0INTs in a season. Even if one did, it would equate to 24 points a game. Tebow has scored more than that in his 3 game stint. I know it is crazy to say Tebow will continue that. But, at the very least, it shows what an advantage in potential he has, when he can put up points running the ball.

 

[atl3695]

His upside is higher than Manning and Brady. I have clearly displayed how Tebow can score 20+ points a game by simply managing 200 yards, 1.4 TDs a game through the air. That is with ONLY scoring 6 rushing points a game - he is currently doing a lot more than that. I honestly feel like 650 yards and 8 TDs would be a better projection and that equates to 7 points a game, just on the ground. I feel like both the passing numbers and rushing numbers he needs to score 20 points a game are conservative. If he could somehow manage to put up the rushing numbers he is now, even with a decrease in passing yards and TDs, we are talking about Michael Vick like numbers - that is his upside. It is not simply that 8 of his TDs happen to be worth 6 points, thus he gets an additional 16 points. . Tebow could be getting the goal line back work AND passing duties. That means more TDs in general, not just that 8 of his happen to account for 6 points instead of 4. When you look at what he has done, and try to project next season, you will see how much potential he has to score. Before you do that - like me before I did - you will continue to think it is crazy to take him over Manning and Brady. How about you do a seasons projection for Tebow, then get back to me and tell me what you came up with.

Already did projections in post #52. 2600 passing, 18 TD-s:14 int, 500 rushing, 6 TD's. That is 260 points in league and puts him around qb 9-12. 68 points out of top 5. Even bumping him to 800 and 8 rushing, he is still out of top 5 and that is BEST CASE scenario. Even with his rushing totals, he will need to crack 3000 yards passing and 20 TD's passing which I think is highly unlikely IMO. Your 200 throwing per game and 1.4 TD's is where your projections fall apart. Higher upside than Manning or Brady? Thats crazy. His best case upside is possibly equal to Manning or Brady with multiple times the risk.He is not as explosive a runner as Vick either. You cant spy Vick because no one on the field can catch him one-on-one. A spy may slow Tebow's runs significantly.I like Tebow for fantasy and a Tebow/Big Ben combo would let you stack up on other positions. Tebow is a nice pick if you can get him at a GOOD VALUE. Picking him over Manning is the exact opposite of that and the reason he will be overhyped heading into the season.

 

[humpback]

Let's not forget that the Tebow pick was McDaniels, and he's gone. If you think there's a 100% chance Tebow starts all year, that's fine, I just think it's a huge leap. I have no idea what he'll score, because I have no idea if he's going to be the starter. Once they get a coach in place and shed some light on the situation, then maybe I'd come up with some projections.

As has already been said, 3 games is almost meaningless. The reason no QB has ever put up those numbers is because an NFL season takes a toll on your body- as a QB, you can't run the ball that often and remain healthy and productive for an entire season. You can when you basically only play for the last 3 games of the season against tired, defeated teams.

He ran the ball well, didn't throw it well- they were 1-2 in his 3 starts, 2 of them at home and all against non-playoff teams. Let's not talk like he set the world on fire here. You can take him over Schaub, Ben, maybe Peyton, Rivers and Romo- no way am I (right now).

 

[Concept Coop]

Already did projections in post #52. 2600 passing, 18 TD-s:14 int, 500 rushing, 6 TD's. That is 260 points in league and puts him around qb 9-12. 68 points out of top 5. Even bumping him to 800 and 8 rushing, he is still out of top 5 and that is BEST CASE scenario. Even with his rushing totals, he will need to crack 3000 yards passing and 20 TD's passing which I think is highly unlikely IMO. Your 200 throwing per game and 1.4 TD's is where your projections fall apart. Higher upside than Manning or Brady? Thats crazy. His best case upside is possibly equal to Manning or Brady with multiple times the risk.He is not as explosive a runner as Vick either. You cant spy Vick because no one on the field can catch him one-on-one. A spy may slow Tebow's runs significantly.I like Tebow for fantasy and a Tebow/Big Ben combo would let you stack up on other positions. Tebow is a nice pick if you can get him at a GOOD VALUE. Picking him over Manning is the exact opposite of that and the reason he will be overhyped heading into the season.

Tell me this: how is 800 yards rushing and 8 TDs "BEST CASE" scenario when he is doing more than that right now? That is not what best case scenerio means. And 162 passing yards a game? Are you being serious? If healhty, he will smash your 500 yard rushing projection, which is still more reasonable than your passing yards. A spy? You don't think the coaches that played against Tebow this season know who he is? You don't think they ever thought of having someone watch him? Or are you suggesting they were worried about him beating them with his arm?A spy does nothing when Tebow is running designed plays between the tackles. That is where Tebow defers from Vick. Not that that makes him better than Vick, just different.

 

[Concept Coop]

Let's not forget that the Tebow pick was McDaniels, and he's gone. If you think there's a 100% chance Tebow starts all year, that's fine, I just think it's a huge leap. I have no idea what he'll score, because I have no idea if he's going to be the starter. Once they get a coach in place and shed some light on the situation, then maybe I'd come up with some projections.As has already been said, 3 games is almost meaningless. The reason no QB has ever put up those numbers is because an NFL season takes a toll on your body- as a QB, you can't run the ball that often and remain healthy and productive for an entire season. You can when you basically only play for the last 3 games of the season against tired, defeated teams.He ran the ball well, didn't throw it well- they were 1-2 in his 3 starts, 2 of them at home and all against non-playoff teams. Let's not talk like he set the world on fire here. You can take him over Schaub, Ben, maybe Peyton, Rivers and Romo- no way am I (right now).

McDaniels was there, as was the GM and owner who both hired and fired McDaniels. They used a 1st round pick on him and he played well. The fans love him as does the team. They are not benching Tebow without giving him a chance. They are already shopping Orton. 3 games in not meaningless. Tim Tebow might not be able to take a beating year in year out. But I will take my chances on him lasting long enough to win fantasy games for me. Your reasoning was also used when pundits told Florida that Tebow couldn't take over for Leak AND continue to run as much - not in the SEC. But he did. There has never been a QB like Tebow, that I recall. So the fact that others couldn't, doesn't mean Tebow cant.

 

[humpback]

It's pretty common knowledge that the Tebow pick was all McDaniels- we wasn't just "there".

3 games is meaningless, if you're going to use them as a basis for projecting a full season. I know you're "discounting" his numbers some, but it's still meaningless. Are you going to project Grossman to be the #1 QB as well? As for the injuries, I'm not talking year in and year out- Vick couldn't last this season because of all his running. It's a heck of a lot more demanding than you're giving it credit for.

I never said Tebow "can't". All I'm saying is, it's ridiculous IMO to put him above those other QBs right now in a redraft when we don't know if he's even going to be starting. As much as you may like to think you know he is, you can't, especially since they don't even have a coach yet (the guy who decides on his starters).

 

[steelcityman]

think Vince Young, but Tebow will try harder, a lot harder, and wont quit on his team or go nutts.

and trust me, I am no Tebow fan.

 

[Concept Coop]

It's pretty common knowledge that the Tebow pick was all McDaniels- we wasn't just "there".3 games is meaningless, if you're going to use them as a basis for projecting a full season. I know you're "discounting" his numbers some, but it's still meaningless. Are you going to project Grossman to be the #1 QB as well? As for the injuries, I'm not talking year in and year out- Vick couldn't last this season because of all his running. It's a heck of a lot more demanding than you're giving it credit for.I never said Tebow "can't". All I'm saying is, it's ridiculous IMO to put him above those other QBs right now in a redraft when we don't know if he's even going to be starting. As much as you may like to think you know he is, you can't, especially since they don't even have a coach yet (the guy who decides on his starters).

You really mean to tell me that 200 yards 1.4 TD/1.0 INT and 30 yards 0.5 rushing is "ridiculous?"We have no idea how much pull McDaniels had. If the scouts, owner and GM didn't like Tebow, I don't think the Broncos draft him. That is before he has looked good in his 3 games. I never said he will reproduce his 3 game stretch on a regular basis. If he did, he would be the best fantasy QB ever, by a wide margin. But I am not going to ignore what he did either. And Vick has lasted full seasons before. Not only that, have you seen Tim Tebow? He is no Mike Vick.

 

[atl3695]

Already did projections in post #52. 2600 passing, 18 TD-s:14 int, 500 rushing, 6 TD's. That is 260 points in league and puts him around qb 9-12. 68 points out of top 5. Even bumping him to 800 and 8 rushing, he is still out of top 5 and that is BEST CASE scenario. Even with his rushing totals, he will need to crack 3000 yards passing and 20 TD's passing which I think is highly unlikely IMO. Your 200 throwing per game and 1.4 TD's is where your projections fall apart. Higher upside than Manning or Brady? Thats crazy. His best case upside is possibly equal to Manning or Brady with multiple times the risk.He is not as explosive a runner as Vick either. You cant spy Vick because no one on the field can catch him one-on-one. A spy may slow Tebow's runs significantly.I like Tebow for fantasy and a Tebow/Big Ben combo would let you stack up on other positions. Tebow is a nice pick if you can get him at a GOOD VALUE. Picking him over Manning is the exact opposite of that and the reason he will be overhyped heading into the season.

Tell me this: how is 800 yards rushing and 8 TDs "BEST CASE" scenario when he is doing more than that right now? That is not what best case scenerio means. And 162 passing yards a game? Are you being serious? If healhty, he will smash your 500 yard rushing projection, which is still more reasonable than your passing yards. A spy? You don't think the coaches that played against Tebow this season know who he is? You don't think they ever thought of having someone watch him? Or are you suggesting they were worried about him beating them with his arm?A spy does nothing when Tebow is running designed plays between the tackles. That is where Tebow defers from Vick. Not that that makes him better than Vick, just different.

Assigning a player where one of his reads is staying with Tebow on runs wont work because it is between the tackles? What are you talking about? If anything, it is easier because there is much less field to cover and other players are in the middle of the field also.I think you are confused on what best case scenario means. 800/8 isnt a GREAT rushing season for a qb? Off the top of my head, only Vick and Cunningham have run for more than that in a season? What is best case scenario for you then? Then what is "best case" for Brady and Manning who have set TD passing records?Did you even watch his games this year or just saw the stats? Of the Qb's that put up over 3200 yards, Tebow is a worse passer than all of them. There will probably be games where Tebow only throws 15 times or so. Viince Young is a good comparison.Besides that, you are still missing the main point. Your projections (optimistic) put him in the Philip Rivers range. Just take Rivers with much less risk. If you grab him before Manning, Brady, Romo, etc. your upside is already priced in.

 

[Concept Coop]

Assigning a player who has a responsibility of staying with Tebow on runs wont work because it is between the tackles? What are you talking about? If anything, it is easier because their is much less field to cover and other players are in the middle of the field also.

I think you are confused on what best case scenario means. 800/8 isnt a GREAT rushing season for a qb? Off the top of my head, only Vick and Cunningham have run for more than that in a season? What is best case scenario for you then? Then what is "best case" for Brady and Manning who have set TD passing records?

Did you even watch his games this year or just saw the stats? Of the Qb's that put up over 3200 yards, Tebow is a worse passer than all of them.

Besides that, you are still missing the main point. Your projections (optimistic) put him in the Philip Rivers range. Just take Rivers with much less risk. If you grab him before Manning, Brady, Romo, etc. your upside is already priced in.

I take it that you don't know what a spy is. A spy is a line-backer or saftey who "spies" on the QB so that he doesn't scramble on pass plays. What good does it do to have a LB spying on Tebow, when Tebow is going to run right up the middle? It does no good to have a spy on running plays. That "spy" turns in to a general tackler. Teams will use spies - as I would think they should - but when Tebow runs up the middle, when it is designed, it won't matter. In other words, spies are much more effective on scrambling QBs like Young and McNabb. Running QBs - Tebow is the only one that I remember seeing, with his talents (different, not better than Vick) - won't be stopped by a spy, as the offense is not trying to fool anyone, and there is nothing to spy on. You are missing the point. My projetions, which are conservative, place him in the Rivers range. Rivers doesn't have much potential to do much more than he did this season - he was amazing. Tebow has plenty potential to score more than my projections. 50 yards a game and 0.75 TDs rushing (less than he did) puts him in Mike Vick range, even if we used your silly 162 pasing yards.

Best case scenerio is what he has been doing on the ground, if not more. How likely is that? I don't know. But it can happen, as it did.

 

[Concept Coop]

This convo is going nowhere. You think he will only muster 162 passing yards a game, and I think that is silly. Nothing more to really talk about.

I do find it funny that you ask me if I watch the games, after suggesting that teams have yet to put a spy on Tim Tebow, and doing so (as if they haven't) will slow him down.

Enjoy the playoffs.

 

[atl3695]

Assigning a player who has a responsibility of staying with Tebow on runs wont work because it is between the tackles? What are you talking about? If anything, it is easier because their is much less field to cover and other players are in the middle of the field also.

I think you are confused on what best case scenario means. 800/8 isnt a GREAT rushing season for a qb? Off the top of my head, only Vick and Cunningham have run for more than that in a season? What is best case scenario for you then? Then what is "best case" for Brady and Manning who have set TD passing records?

Did you even watch his games this year or just saw the stats? Of the Qb's that put up over 3200 yards, Tebow is a worse passer than all of them.

Besides that, you are still missing the main point. Your projections (optimistic) put him in the Philip Rivers range. Just take Rivers with much less risk. If you grab him before Manning, Brady, Romo, etc. your upside is already priced in.

I take it that you don't know what a spy is. A spy is a line-backer or saftey who "spies" on the QB so that he doesn't scramble on pass plays. What good does it do to have a LB spying on Tebow, when Tebow is going to run right up the middle? It does no good to have a spy on running plays. That "spy" turns in to a general tackler. Teams will use spies - as I would think they should - but when Tebow runs up the middle, when it is designed, it won't matter. In other words, spies are much more effective on scrambling QBs like Young and McNabb. Running QBs - Tebow is the only one that I remember seeing, with his talents (different, not better than Vick) - won't be stopped by a spy, as the offense is not trying to fool anyone, and there is nothing to spy on. You are missing the point. My projetions, which are conservative, place him in the Rivers range. Rivers doesn't have much potential to do much more than he did this season - he was amazing. Tebow has plenty potential to score more than my projections. 50 yards a game and 0.75 TDs rushing (less than he did) puts him in Mike Vick range, even if we used your silly 162 pasing yards.

Best case scenerio is what he has been doing on the ground, if not more. How likely is that? I don't know. But it can happen, as it did.

Most long runs for qb's (including Tebow's) come on designed pass plays or rollouts/draws from passing formations. First vid show Tebow dropping back (making one read?) and then ROLLING OUT for a TD run. Second is a designed run from a pass formation. A spy may not even be needed against Tebow, but would have helped on those two plays.http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-fantasy/0900...Tebow-30-yd-run

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlig...-40-yard-TD-run

Denver needs a coach and to see what happens with the defense before any projections can be made. If the D is as bad as this year, Tebow may continue putting up garbage time passing numbers like he did this year.

Regardless of who the coach is, I would be more than willing to re-visit this next season and make a side bet on either Brady or Manning vs. Tebow.

I have spots open in my leagues also so come on in with that Tim Tebow second round pick!

 

[Phlash]

Comparing Grossman to Tebow is laughable. Grossman has already proven himself to be a turd. Tebow has always solidified himself as a great passer/rusher combined and produced huge numbers everywhere he's gone. It's the LACK of knowledge of Tebow that is increasing his value - we don't know his ceiling (but based on previous work it's looked great), but we've seen what happens to Sexy Rexy when he's given the full workload.

 

[Concept Coop]

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlig...-40-yard-TD-run

The play is diagnosed before a spy would come into play. A spy only comes into play on designed passing plays. It doesn't matter if the LB is supposed to be covering the LB or TE or watching Tebow. Once Tebow starts running, the player is a tackler and nothing more. Every player on the defense has two sets of responsibilities, if not more: one in case of pass, one is case of run.

 

[BassNBrew]

It's pretty common knowledge that the Tebow pick was all McDaniels- we wasn't just "there".

3 games is meaningless, if you're going to use them as a basis for projecting a full season. I know you're "discounting" his numbers some, but it's still meaningless. Are you going to project Grossman to be the #1 QB as well? As for the injuries, I'm not talking year in and year out- Vick couldn't last this season because of all his running. It's a heck of a lot more demanding than you're giving it credit for.

I never said Tebow "can't". All I'm saying is, it's ridiculous IMO to put him above those other QBs right now in a redraft when we don't know if he's even going to be starting. As much as you may like to think you know he is, you can't, especially since they don't even have a coach yet (the guy who decides on his starters).

You really mean to tell me that 200 yards 1.4 TD/1.0 INT and 30 yards 0.5 rushing is "ridiculous?"We have no idea how much pull McDaniels had. If the scouts, owner and GM didn't like Tebow, I don't think the Broncos draft him. That is before he has looked good in his 3 games.

I never said he will reproduce his 3 game stretch on a regular basis. If he did, he would be the best fantasy QB ever, by a wide margin. But I am not going to ignore what he did either.

And Vick has lasted full seasons before. Not only that, have you seen Tim Tebow? He is no Mike Vick.

Well that's 14 pts ppg via Tebow. Throw in another 7 ppg via RB/D/ST and your at 21 ppg. Give Prater 5.5 in FGs and you have 26.5 ppg. That puts Denver on par with Philly and San Diego.

 

[Concept Coop]

Well that's 14 pts ppg via Tebow. Throw in another 7 ppg via RB/D/ST and your at 21 ppg. Give Prater 5.5 in FGs and you have 26.5 ppg. That puts Denver on par with Philly and San Diego.

Not true. Just becuase Tebow scores a higher percentage of his teams points, does not mean that the rest of his team will score as much as other teams. Denvers RBs would suffer, as far as points scored, because more would go to Tebow. And I don't know why it is so crazy, he has done it 3 weeks in a row as an unpolished rookie. And yards are the biggest advantage for running QBs, not TDs.

 

[humpback]

If right now you are projecting him to score more FF points than Rivers et al next season, then yes, that is ridiculous IMO. Obviously, it COULD happen, but projections aren't just about upside possibilities.

I guess you didn't follow Denver all that much, because it was clear that Tebow was McDaniels' guy. There have been articles since his firing questioning what Tebow's role will be without him. You can choose to completely ignore the possibility that he doesn't start all season, but it's a very real one. I won't begin to do projections for him until much later, when his situation is much more clear. If I had to rank them right now, Tebow would not be in my top 10 QBs, probably not top 15, because of all of the uncertainty (that you are discounting). If you were doing it purely on upside, then he would be, but that's foolish IMO.

 

[Concept Coop]

If right now you are projecting him to score more FF points than Rivers et al next season, then yes, that is ridiculous IMO. Obviously, it COULD happen, but projections aren't just about upside possibilities.I guess you didn't follow Denver all that much, because it was clear that Tebow was McDaniels' guy. There have been articles since his firing questioning what Tebow's role will be without him. You can choose to completely ignore the possibility that he doesn't start all season, but it's a very real one. I won't begin to do projections for him until much later, when his situation is much more clear. If I had to rank them right now, Tebow would not be in my top 10 QBs, probably not top 15, because of all of the uncertainty (that you are discounting). If you were doing it purely on upside, then he would be, but that's foolish IMO.

His upside is either what he is doing now, or more than that - that is A LOT more than Rivers and the lot. If my numbers are so outragous, please enlighten me. Yes, I have been following Denver. Denvers owner and GM, who fired McDaniels before the end of the season, were there when Denver traded up and drafted Tebow. You think they would have let McDaniels do that if they, along with the scouts, didn't like him?And I don't know if you know this, but Tebow has been putting up points with out McDaniels. See how that works?

 

[atl3695]

If right now you are projecting him to score more FF points than Rivers et al next season, then yes, that is ridiculous IMO. Obviously, it COULD happen, but projections aren't just about upside possibilities.I guess you didn't follow Denver all that much, because it was clear that Tebow was McDaniels' guy. There have been articles since his firing questioning what Tebow's role will be without him. You can choose to completely ignore the possibility that he doesn't start all season, but it's a very real one. I won't begin to do projections for him until much later, when his situation is much more clear. If I had to rank them right now, Tebow would not be in my top 10 QBs, probably not top 15, because of all of the uncertainty (that you are discounting). If you were doing it purely on upside, then he would be, but that's foolish IMO.

I was hoping to get Tebow in rounds 8-10 at a decent value, but seems that wont be happening. People are ALREADY talking about taking him over Brady and Manning! I doubt Concrete Loop will be the only fool out there who reaches for Tebow. It only takes one in every league.

 

[BassNBrew]

Well that's 14 pts ppg via Tebow. Throw in another 7 ppg via RB/D/ST and your at 21 ppg. Give Prater 5.5 in FGs and you have 26.5 ppg. That puts Denver on par with Philly and San Diego.

Not true. Just becuase Tebow scores a higher percentage of his teams points, does not mean that the rest of his team will score as much as other teams. Denvers RBs would suffer, as far as points scored, because more would go to Tebow. And I don't know why it is so crazy, he has done it 3 weeks in a row as an unpolished rookie. And yards are the biggest advantage for running QBs, not TDs.

Against the Raiders, Texans, and an uninterested Charger team. Road games next year at NE, NYJ, GB, and Chicago won't be the same cake walk.

 

[Concept Coop]

I was hoping to get Tebow in rounds 8-10 at a decent value, but seems that wont be happening. People are ALREADY talking about taking him over Brady and Manning! I doubt Concrete Loop will be the only fool out there who reaches for Tebow. It only takes one in every league.

Name calling even, and I'm a fool? No matter. Sit back and be safe. Good luck to you. I can't wait until this site releases their projections. A lot of people are going to sound silly for calling me a fool, simply because they can't grasp the potential of running QBs in fantasy football.

If I came out and said Vick > Rivers a couple months ago, I would be getting the same safe and comfortable owners calling me crazy.

 

[Concept Coop]

Well that's 14 pts ppg via Tebow. Throw in another 7 ppg via RB/D/ST and your at 21 ppg. Give Prater 5.5 in FGs and you have 26.5 ppg. That puts Denver on par with Philly and San Diego.

Not true. Just becuase Tebow scores a higher percentage of his teams points, does not mean that the rest of his team will score as much as other teams. Denvers RBs would suffer, as far as points scored, because more would go to Tebow. And I don't know why it is so crazy, he has done it 3 weeks in a row as an unpolished rookie. And yards are the biggest advantage for running QBs, not TDs.

Against the Raiders, Texans, and an uninterested Charger team. Road games next year at NE, NYJ, GB, and Chicago won't be the same cake walk.

Projections?

 

[humpback]

If right now you are projecting him to score more FF points than Rivers et al next season, then yes, that is ridiculous IMO. Obviously, it COULD happen, but projections aren't just about upside possibilities.I guess you didn't follow Denver all that much, because it was clear that Tebow was McDaniels' guy. There have been articles since his firing questioning what Tebow's role will be without him. You can choose to completely ignore the possibility that he doesn't start all season, but it's a very real one. I won't begin to do projections for him until much later, when his situation is much more clear. If I had to rank them right now, Tebow would not be in my top 10 QBs, probably not top 15, because of all of the uncertainty (that you are discounting). If you were doing it purely on upside, then he would be, but that's foolish IMO.

His upside is either what he is doing now, or more than that - that is A LOT more than Rivers and the lot. If my numbers are so outragous, please enlighten me. Yes, I have been following Denver. Denvers owner and GM would fired McDaniels before the end of the season, were there when Denver traded up and drafted Tebow. You think they would have let McDaniels do that if they, along with the scouts, didn't like him?And I don't know if you know this, but Tebow has been putting up points with out McDaniels. See how that works?

For the 100th time- IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT THE NUMBERS. It's the fact that you are making so many assumptions, all based off of 3 meaningless games at the end of a season. If you're comfortable factoring in zero chance that Tebow is not the starting QB all of next year, even though we don't even know who the coach is going to be, knock yourself out. I'm not going to do that.They gave McDaniels almost total control of everything, including hiring the guy busted for taping a SF practice. McDaniels made the decision on Tebow. Do you really think that if Bill Parcells calls up today and says "I'll come back to coach, and I'm going with Orton (or any other QB)", that they'll say "no thanks, we really like Tebow"?Yes, he has a ton of upside. He also has a very, very low floor which you are basically ignoring.

 

[Concept Coop]

For the 100th time- IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT THE NUMBERS. It's the fact that you are making so many assumptions, all based off of 3 meaningless games at the end of a season. If you're comfortable factoring in zero chance that Tebow is not the starting QB all of next year, even though we don't even know who the coach is going to be, knock yourself out. I'm not going to do that.They gave McDaniels almost total control of everything, including hiring the guy busted for taping a SF practice. McDaniels made the decision on Tebow. Do you really think that if Bill Parcells calls up today and says "I'll come back to coach, and I'm going with Orton (or any other QB)", that they'll say "no thanks, we really like Tebow"?Yes, he has a ton of upside. He also has a very, very low floor which you are basically ignoring.

If it makes you uncomfortable, or you don't feel same making projections before ESPN and Yahoo do them for you, I understand. It must be scary to think about what might happen, before it actually does.As for your argument, never did I say there was no risk. I just know that it is silly to assume the Broncos are going to give up on Tim, especially after he looked pretty good for 3 games. I think he will start 16 games, if healhty, next season for the Broncos. I am sorry if that scares you.

 

[humpback]

If I came out and said Vick > Rivers a couple months ago, I would be getting the same safe and comfortable owners calling me crazy.

If it was before we knew Vick was the starter, then yes, you would've been called crazy (and rightfully so). Get it yet?

 

[Concept Coop]

If I came out and said Vick > Rivers a couple months ago, I would be getting the same safe and comfortable owners calling me crazy.

If it was before we knew Vick was the starter, then yes, you would've been called crazy (and rightfully so). Get it yet?

No. Vick was the back up at the time. Tim Tebow is the starter right now. I think Tim Tebow will be the starter next year. Tell me what is crazy about that, please.

 

[humpback]

For the 100th time- IT'S NOT JUST ABOUT THE NUMBERS. It's the fact that you are making so many assumptions, all based off of 3 meaningless games at the end of a season. If you're comfortable factoring in zero chance that Tebow is not the starting QB all of next year, even though we don't even know who the coach is going to be, knock yourself out. I'm not going to do that.They gave McDaniels almost total control of everything, including hiring the guy busted for taping a SF practice. McDaniels made the decision on Tebow. Do you really think that if Bill Parcells calls up today and says "I'll come back to coach, and I'm going with Orton (or any other QB)", that they'll say "no thanks, we really like Tebow"?Yes, he has a ton of upside. He also has a very, very low floor which you are basically ignoring.

If it makes you uncomfortable, or you don't feel same making projections before ESPN and Yahoo do them for you, I understand. It must be scary to think about what might happen, before they actually do.As for your argument, never did I say there was no risk. I just know that it is silly to assume the Broncos are going to give up on Tim, especially after he looked pretty good for 3 games. I think he will start 16 games, if healhty, next season for the Broncos. I am sorry if that scares you.

And you wonder why you constantly get into arguments on here- you whine when some one says something you don't like, but you also act like a tool to others.I'm certainly not scared, it's just that I know you're making ridiculous assumptions. More power to you, maybe you'll get this one right.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He's an interesting backup in a 12 teamer.

If that's all he is to you then you won't get him. He'll be drafted as a starter next year with upside. There's a lot of things that are going to happen between now and when the next season starts but if you project his fantasy stats thru 16 games he's a top 10 QB. Denver's defense won't be that good again next year either forcing this guy to get everything he can, while he can.

 

[Concept Coop]

And you wonder why you constantly get into arguments on here- you whine when some one says something you don't like, but you also act like a tool to others.I'm certainly not scared, it's just that I know you're making ridiculous assumptions. More power to you, maybe you'll get this one right.

You called names and I am the tool? Where did I whine?Thinking that Tim Tebow, the current starter, will start next season is a ridiculous assumption?I am done on the topic, as I said. You don't feel comfortable saying that Tebow sill start and I do. No need for anyone to be a tool or call names. If I offended you, I apologize. Enjoy your evening.

 

[faulkfan]

One thing that might help Tebow's cause could be that the Denver fans seem to like him and the team may roll him out there to maintain its relationship to the fans.

Now, just because he starts doesn't mean he will perform, but this might suggest that he will get a chance.

 

[humpback]

And you wonder why you constantly get into arguments on here- you whine when some one says something you don't like, but you also act like a tool to others.I'm certainly not scared, it's just that I know you're making ridiculous assumptions. More power to you, maybe you'll get this one right.

You called names and I am the tool? Where did I whine?Thinking that Tim Tebow, the current starter, will start next season is a ridiculous assumption?I am done on the topic, as I said. You don't feel comfortable saying that Tebow sill start and I do. No need for anyone to be a tool or call names. If I offended you, I apologize. Enjoy your evening.

It's hard to have a discussion with some one when they don't pay attention- go back and look, I wasn't the one calling names, it was another poster. Yes, saying I need to wait for ESPN or Yahoo to do my projections for me, or that I'm scared, is being a tool.I've made my points pretty clear, you just are all over the place. Won't bother saying the same things over and over.

 

[DocHolliday]

I hope someone in my FF league drafts Tebow ahead of Rivers, Manning, and Brady. As a Raider fan, I also hope Denver starts Tebow all season. Tebow did not look like an NFL QB to me. Unless he improves his passing A LOT, he will not even be average.

 

[Summer Wheat]

think Vince Young, but Tebow will try harder, a lot harder, and wont quit on his team or go nutts.and trust me, I am no Tebow fan.

As far as leadership Tebow is a gritty football player/QB and the team loves playing for him. Young is an insecure whack job who has been questioned by his team and coaches. As far as skill level goes they are more alike than different. If Young can play in the NFL there is no doubt Tebow can.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

Did you guys check out Brady in weeks 12-14? 1,036 yards passing and 10 touchdowns. I'm thinking 2011 will have 5,500 yards and 53 touchdowns.

 

[Summer Wheat]

Did you guys check out Brady in weeks 12-14? 1,036 yards passing and 10 touchdowns. I'm thinking 2011 will have 5,500 yards and 53 touchdowns.

This is the only body of work we have to judge Tebow on. If he flopped we would not be having this discussion. When given the chance he produced quality FF starts. Tebows rushing yards and rushing TDs will be what makes him a good FF QB, not his passing. Think Vicks early days in Atlanta..some huge games and some stinkers.

 

[Concept Coop]

Did you guys check out Brady in weeks 12-14? 1,036 yards passing and 10 touchdowns. I'm thinking 2011 will have 5,500 yards and 53 touchdowns.

Care to make a sig bet on Tebow's 2011 numbers?And again, nobody is prorating anything.

 

[atl3695]

Did you guys check out Brady in weeks 12-14? 1,036 yards passing and 10 touchdowns. I'm thinking 2011 will have 5,500 yards and 53 touchdowns.

Care to make a sig bet on Tebow's 2011 numbers?

How bout a cash bet?

 

[Concept Coop]

Did you guys check out Brady in weeks 12-14? 1,036 yards passing and 10 touchdowns. I'm thinking 2011 will have 5,500 yards and 53 touchdowns.

Care to make a sig bet on Tebow's 2011 numbers?

How bout a cash bet?

I'll bet anything under 3 figures, via paypal. What terms?

 

[BassNBrew]

Well that's 14 pts ppg via Tebow. Throw in another 7 ppg via RB/D/ST and your at 21 ppg. Give Prater 5.5 in FGs and you have 26.5 ppg. That puts Denver on par with Philly and San Diego.

Not true. Just becuase Tebow scores a higher percentage of his teams points, does not mean that the rest of his team will score as much as other teams. Denvers RBs would suffer, as far as points scored, because more would go to Tebow. And I don't know why it is so crazy, he has done it 3 weeks in a row as an unpolished rookie. And yards are the biggest advantage for running QBs, not TDs.

Against the Raiders, Texans, and an uninterested Charger team. Road games next year at NE, NYJ, GB, and Chicago won't be the same cake walk.

Projections?

Too early. I'll need to see the schedule to project his injury date.Giving him the benefit of the doubt....15 games, 2500 yards, 15 pass TDs, 13 INTs, 110 rushes for 700 yards, 5 tds. Somewhere around QB12.Guys I'd take before him...Brady, Manning, Rivers, Big Ben, Schuab, Vick, Brees, Romo, Manning 2, Rodgers, RyanGuys I'd consider before him depending on format...Freeman, Flaco, Palmer

 

[atl3695]

Did you guys check out Brady in weeks 12-14? 1,036 yards passing and 10 touchdowns. I'm thinking 2011 will have 5,500 yards and 53 touchdowns.

Care to make a sig bet on Tebow's 2011 numbers?

How bout a cash bet?

I'll bet anything under 3 figures, via paypal. What terms?

PM Sent

 

[Concept Coop]

Well that's 14 pts ppg via Tebow. Throw in another 7 ppg via RB/D/ST and your at 21 ppg. Give Prater 5.5 in FGs and you have 26.5 ppg. That puts Denver on par with Philly and San Diego.

Not true. Just becuase Tebow scores a higher percentage of his teams points, does not mean that the rest of his team will score as much as other teams. Denvers RBs would suffer, as far as points scored, because more would go to Tebow. And I don't know why it is so crazy, he has done it 3 weeks in a row as an unpolished rookie. And yards are the biggest advantage for running QBs, not TDs.

Against the Raiders, Texans, and an uninterested Charger team. Road games next year at NE, NYJ, GB, and Chicago won't be the same cake walk.

Projections?

Too early. I'll need to see the schedule to project his injury date.Giving him the benefit of the doubt....15 games, 2500 yards, 15 pass TDs, 13 INTs, 110 rushes for 700 yards, 5 tds. Somewhere around QB12.Guys I'd take before him...Brady, Manning, Rivers, Big Ben, Schuab, Vick, Brees, Romo, Manning 2, Rodgers, RyanGuys I'd consider before him depending on format...Freeman, Flaco, Palmer

Fair. I think that is conservative, but our running numbers are close enough. I think 5 rushing TDs is low, however, as well as his passing yards.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Well that's 14 pts ppg via Tebow. Throw in another 7 ppg via RB/D/ST and your at 21 ppg. Give Prater 5.5 in FGs and you have 26.5 ppg. That puts Denver on par with Philly and San Diego.

Not true. Just becuase Tebow scores a higher percentage of his teams points, does not mean that the rest of his team will score as much as other teams. Denvers RBs would suffer, as far as points scored, because more would go to Tebow. And I don't know why it is so crazy, he has done it 3 weeks in a row as an unpolished rookie. And yards are the biggest advantage for running QBs, not TDs.

Against the Raiders, Texans, and an uninterested Charger team. Road games next year at NE, NYJ, GB, and Chicago won't be the same cake walk.

Projections?

Too early. I'll need to see the schedule to project his injury date.Giving him the benefit of the doubt....15 games, 2500 yards, 15 pass TDs, 13 INTs, 110 rushes for 700 yards, 5 tds. Somewhere around QB12.Guys I'd take before him...Brady, Manning, Rivers, Big Ben, Schuab, Vick, Brees, Romo, Manning 2, Rodgers, RyanGuys I'd consider before him depending on format...Freeman, Flaco, Palmer

You're not going to buy into the Stafford hype next year? You didn't hear, he's going to throw 25 Td passes to Calvin next year.

 

[Concept Coop]

Did you guys check out Brady in weeks 12-14? 1,036 yards passing and 10 touchdowns. I'm thinking 2011 will have 5,500 yards and 53 touchdowns.

Care to make a sig bet on Tebow's 2011 numbers?

How bout a cash bet?

I'll bet anything under 3 figures, via paypal. What terms?

$99, Tebow top 5.

Lets do $50. We'll take our numbers and meet in the middle. That, or I am willing to do a blanket top 9 in PPG scored, minus games in which the player does not start or misses more than one half.