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Go deeps Updated Dynasty Rankings (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Go deep
- Start date
For the record, these are not my rankings, i used 7 sites/experts to compile the numbers/rankings.Most of it is pretty self explanatory. The first set of numbers is the players combine/proday numbers. The first "Avg" is the average of a few sites grades of players attributes. The 2nd "Avg" is the average of where the 7 sites rank each player. The last column is the average of where a few of the sites project the player going in the draft. A 2.5 just means a 2nd/3rd round projection. An 8 means to player is expected to go undrafted. I did that so i can accurately sort by that column.
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greggorymac
Footballguy
Go Deep,Always love your stuff. When do you anticipate updating your rankings post-draft? I'm very interested in seeing where you place Ingram, Thomas, Williams, and others.
Funny you post this. I just came here to look for this thread to say i will have a full post draft update done in the next couple/few days. Thanks for the bump.
Looks like my having Locker as the #2 QB wasnt that crazy after all, and its nice to see Belichick agreed with me about Vereen. While im updating, if anyone has a strong argument to make about any of the incoming rookies, i would love to hear it.QB's finished
Up
Matt Ryan - (up 2)The addition of Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers not only gives Ryan two more weapons in the offense, it shows us the direction the Falcons are going with that offense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - (up 2)Even though i thought the Bills should just go with Fitz as their starter, i wasnt sure they agreed. After not taking one in this draft, its seems Fitzpatrick is going to get an opportunity to be the Billls QB of the future. I dont think he will ever be confused for Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but i think he can be a solid NFL and fantasy starter.
Down
David Garrard - (down 6) Should get another year out of him in Jax, and i doubt he ever ends up starting anywhere else.
Ryan Mallett - (down 2)It might end up being the best thing for Mallett, but going to NE means he wont be starting for a while, even if he ends up getting traded at some point in the future.
Added
Christian Ponder
Colin Kaepernick
Andy Dalton
Up
Matt Ryan - (up 2)The addition of Julio Jones and Jacquizz Rodgers not only gives Ryan two more weapons in the offense, it shows us the direction the Falcons are going with that offense.
Ryan Fitzpatrick - (up 2)Even though i thought the Bills should just go with Fitz as their starter, i wasnt sure they agreed. After not taking one in this draft, its seems Fitzpatrick is going to get an opportunity to be the Billls QB of the future. I dont think he will ever be confused for Tom Brady or Peyton Manning, but i think he can be a solid NFL and fantasy starter.
Down
David Garrard - (down 6) Should get another year out of him in Jax, and i doubt he ever ends up starting anywhere else.
Ryan Mallett - (down 2)It might end up being the best thing for Mallett, but going to NE means he wont be starting for a while, even if he ends up getting traded at some point in the future.
Added
Christian Ponder
Colin Kaepernick
Andy Dalton
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Im done done with my post draft updates yet, and there will be some changes, but things wont change too much. Quickly though, my thoughts on Foster have been discussed here quite a bit, but basically I like him in 2011, i just dont trust his long term value because im not a big believer in hs talent. Ive never been impressed with Mendenhall, although he might be in for a small boost with the Steeers not gettting a big play back in the draft, like i thought they were going to. Ingram and Mathews are two guys il ike alot, and think they are in for 5 years of top 10 RB seasons. I have actually already knocked Best down a few points because of Leshoure, but im confident that Best will still be the #1 with Leshoure being the shortyardge/COP back. The Giants not drafting a RB(other than Scott) means they will be keeping Bradshaw. He is still just 24 and one of the most talented backs in the league. My only real issues with him is his durability and fumbling. The fumbling thing can be easily fixed, and im not all that concerened about the durability issues.Moreno is a guy i just dont know where to put. I thought the Broncos were going to bring in another RB in the draft which would have made it easier to rank him. For now though he is still the bell cow in Denevr and looked pretty good last year when healthy, and Fox being there now can only help.I like Forte, but these are non-ppr rankings so i think his ranking is pretty fair.Go Deep, Why is it that guys like Mendenhall, Arian Foster, Forte ranked so low? Moreno, Best, Bradshaw, Ingram, Mathews ranked ahead of them ?
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greggorymac
Footballguy
Go Deep,
Thanks for updating your rankings. I'm in a 12-team standard lineup/scoring format that is a 2-Keeper league. I've been told a 2-Keeper league is still more similar to a redraft format than a Dynasty format, but I would like to get your advise...
Surprisingly Run-DMC wasn't kept by his owner last season so I will have the choice between DMC or Ingram with my first pick (I'm retaining QB Rogers and Jamaal Charles from last season). I think Ingram will have the better career but am I being too overly optimistic regarding his 2011 stats (I'm assuming he will be a top 15 back at the end of 2011, and projecting him to be a top 5 heading into 2012? My gut says Ingram but I can't tell if my judgment is being clouded by the post-draft high from this past weekend?
Thanks for updating your rankings. I'm in a 12-team standard lineup/scoring format that is a 2-Keeper league. I've been told a 2-Keeper league is still more similar to a redraft format than a Dynasty format, but I would like to get your advise...
Surprisingly Run-DMC wasn't kept by his owner last season so I will have the choice between DMC or Ingram with my first pick (I'm retaining QB Rogers and Jamaal Charles from last season). I think Ingram will have the better career but am I being too overly optimistic regarding his 2011 stats (I'm assuming he will be a top 15 back at the end of 2011, and projecting him to be a top 5 heading into 2012? My gut says Ingram but I can't tell if my judgment is being clouded by the post-draft high from this past weekend?
matttyl
Footballguy
Thank you so much for all of your work with these rankings. I use them almost exclusively when deciding on a trade in my 10 team dynasty league. Absolutely no rush to update the rankings, but what do you do now with these 3 guys on my roster....
Roddy White - what does Jones on the other side really mean for him?
Beanie - the more I look, the more I see that Arizona got Williams as he was the BPA at that time for them, even though they didn't really need him. That's still not great news for Beanie, but is Williams really the RB to have there? Will this end up very similar to the 1-2 punch in Detroit with Best and Leshoure (young QB, dynamite #1 WR, 2 young RBs with similar skill sets)?
LB Tulloch - wasn't a great draft for his stock, and where does he go now?
Roddy White - what does Jones on the other side really mean for him?
Beanie - the more I look, the more I see that Arizona got Williams as he was the BPA at that time for them, even though they didn't really need him. That's still not great news for Beanie, but is Williams really the RB to have there? Will this end up very similar to the 1-2 punch in Detroit with Best and Leshoure (young QB, dynamite #1 WR, 2 young RBs with similar skill sets)?
LB Tulloch - wasn't a great draft for his stock, and where does he go now?
I liked Ingram before the draft, i love him after going to the Saints. He should see 250+ carries, and better than that he should easily score double digit TD's. I would not be at all surprised if he led the leagiue in rushing TD's either. With that said, i think Mcfadden is the way to go. He is one of the most talented RB"s in the league and is in a pretty good situation in Oakland. He was a top 3 RB in PPG last season, and is a good bet to finish as a top 5 RB if he stays healthy this season. Its close in non-ppr, but if you play in a PPR, Mcfadden is the easy choice.
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White shouldnt lose any value in non-pprs. He will lose some targets and receptions but should do more with the ones he gets with the extra room he should get from Julio being on the other side,I was a big fan of Beanie until they drafted Williams. Im not giving up on Beanie, but im confused with the drafting of Williams considering the needs the Cardinals had at other positions. He is just 23, and had plenty of good reason to have a bad year last year, so i still think there is hope for Wells.I was never a fan of Tulloch, but he looked better than i thought last year. Alot of that was due to situation, but he definitely had someting to do with it. Im still scared he is replaceable there and might consider trading him while his value is this high.
The RB's are finished.
Up
Mark Ingram - Couldnt have went to a better situation.
Rashard Mendenhall - I was pretty sure the Steelers would bring in a big play back to steal some touches from RM, they didnt. Im still not a huge fan of his talent, but he should be in for another season of what he does best, get alot of carries.
Amhad Bradshaw - Another guy who goes up for doing nothing but his team not drafting another RB.
Shane Vereen - I thought he was as good as Leshoure before the draft and it was nice to see the smartest guy in football drafted him before Leshoure. Vereen ends up in a very good situation, and could make at run at ROY.
Marshawn Lynch - See Bradshaw(Maybe i wasnt too high on him all season after all)
Donald Brown - Only brought in Carter(who is the same age as Brown) and addressed what was the biggest problem with the run game, the Oline.
Down
Jahvid Best - No doubt the Lions drafting a RB in the 2nd hurts Best, but he is still the #1 RB in Detroit, and could easily put up Ray Rice type numbers if he stays healthy.
Felix Jones - Im not a big fan of Murray, but he is a good pass catcher, and should steal some receptions from Jones. Felix is still the #1 in Dallas though and is still a good RB3.
Shonn Greene - a 26 year old RB who has yet to have a good season. Now they have a back on their roster that is more talented too.
Ryan Torain - He wasnt very high on my rankings anyway, but loses most of the value he did have with the drafting of Helu and Royster.
Tashard Choice - So much for Choice being part of a 2 man rotation with Jones.
BJGE - See Ryan Torain
Pierre Thomas - Hopefully his owners dumped him right after he resigned with the Saints.
Chris Ivory - See Torain/BJGE
Added
15 other rookies
WR's almost finished
Comments welcomed
Up
Mark Ingram - Couldnt have went to a better situation.
Rashard Mendenhall - I was pretty sure the Steelers would bring in a big play back to steal some touches from RM, they didnt. Im still not a huge fan of his talent, but he should be in for another season of what he does best, get alot of carries.
Amhad Bradshaw - Another guy who goes up for doing nothing but his team not drafting another RB.
Shane Vereen - I thought he was as good as Leshoure before the draft and it was nice to see the smartest guy in football drafted him before Leshoure. Vereen ends up in a very good situation, and could make at run at ROY.
Marshawn Lynch - See Bradshaw(Maybe i wasnt too high on him all season after all)
Donald Brown - Only brought in Carter(who is the same age as Brown) and addressed what was the biggest problem with the run game, the Oline.
Down
Jahvid Best - No doubt the Lions drafting a RB in the 2nd hurts Best, but he is still the #1 RB in Detroit, and could easily put up Ray Rice type numbers if he stays healthy.
Felix Jones - Im not a big fan of Murray, but he is a good pass catcher, and should steal some receptions from Jones. Felix is still the #1 in Dallas though and is still a good RB3.
Shonn Greene - a 26 year old RB who has yet to have a good season. Now they have a back on their roster that is more talented too.
Ryan Torain - He wasnt very high on my rankings anyway, but loses most of the value he did have with the drafting of Helu and Royster.
Tashard Choice - So much for Choice being part of a 2 man rotation with Jones.
BJGE - See Ryan Torain
Pierre Thomas - Hopefully his owners dumped him right after he resigned with the Saints.
Chris Ivory - See Torain/BJGE
Added
15 other rookies
WR's almost finished
Comments welcomed
WR's - No significant changes at WR
With the QB/RB/WR's finished, here is how the top 40 rookies ended up in my rankings(TE's and IDP's not included..yet)
1. Mark Ingram 56
2. AJ Green 53
3. Julio Jones 48
4. Ryan Williams 41
5. Shane Vereen 41
6. Daniel Thomas 39
7. Jonathan Baldwin 36
8. Greg Little 36
9. Bilal Powell 36
10. Mikel Leshoure 35
11. Torrey Smith 35
12. Roy Helu 34
13. Randall Cobb 34
14. Jacquizz Rodgers 33
15. Titus Young 32
16. Leonard Hankerson 30
17. Delone Carter 30
18. Cam Newton 29
19. Kendall Hunter 29
20. Jake Locker 28
21. Dion Lewis 27
22. Greg Salas 27
23. Blaine Gabbert 27
24. Demarco Murray 26
25. Alex Green 26
26. Christian Ponder 26
27. Allen Bradford 26
28. Austin Pettis 26
29. Taiwan Jones 25
30. Cecil Shorts 24
31. Andy Dalton 24
32. Jordan Todman 24
33. Johnny White 24
34. Edmund Gates 24
35. Tandon Doss 24
36. Jerrel Jernigan 23
37. Evan Royster 23
38. Colin Kaepernick 23
39. Denarius Moore 22
40. Noel Devine 22
With the QB/RB/WR's finished, here is how the top 40 rookies ended up in my rankings(TE's and IDP's not included..yet)
1. Mark Ingram 56
2. AJ Green 53
3. Julio Jones 48
4. Ryan Williams 41
5. Shane Vereen 41
6. Daniel Thomas 39
7. Jonathan Baldwin 36
8. Greg Little 36
9. Bilal Powell 36
10. Mikel Leshoure 35
11. Torrey Smith 35
12. Roy Helu 34
13. Randall Cobb 34
14. Jacquizz Rodgers 33
15. Titus Young 32
16. Leonard Hankerson 30
17. Delone Carter 30
18. Cam Newton 29
19. Kendall Hunter 29
20. Jake Locker 28
21. Dion Lewis 27
22. Greg Salas 27
23. Blaine Gabbert 27
24. Demarco Murray 26
25. Alex Green 26
26. Christian Ponder 26
27. Allen Bradford 26
28. Austin Pettis 26
29. Taiwan Jones 25
30. Cecil Shorts 24
31. Andy Dalton 24
32. Jordan Todman 24
33. Johnny White 24
34. Edmund Gates 24
35. Tandon Doss 24
36. Jerrel Jernigan 23
37. Evan Royster 23
38. Colin Kaepernick 23
39. Denarius Moore 22
40. Noel Devine 22
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matttyl
Footballguy
You also have to consider the freed up roster spot, which I think he "values" at 16 if I'm not mistaken. Personally, I think these values are better for 1 for 1 trades, when you start to get into 2 for 1 and 3 for 1 trades it gets a bit complicated and really depends on how badly you need to free up rosters space.Also, I'm in a 10 team league, so that adjusts things a bit as there are more QBs and such to go around with only 10 teams than there would be in a 14 or so team league.
greggorymac
Footballguy
Go Deep,
Speculating here, but if Kolb lands in Arizona does Larry move up to the #2 spot behind Calvin?
Speculating here, but if Kolb lands in Arizona does Larry move up to the #2 spot behind Calvin?
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
not with allen bradford in town
He will move up, not sure how high yet.
I wont feel good about bumping Blount up until I see more from him.
No, from what I have seen so far I have no reason to think he will be starting in TB for very long. I don't think that will change, but I'm open to it if he looks better in 2011 than he did last year. I also found it interesting the Bucs drafted a back with a similar skill set to Blount instead of a 3rd down back.
mcintyre1
Footballguy
I'm curious, what exactly did you see last year that you didn't like? Seems odd that you need him to "look better" after he put up over 1,000 yards with 6 TDs in 13 games. I'd say he looked pretty damn good last year. I'm not going to anoint him as a Top 12 dynasty back, but I don't see why his starting job would be in jeopardy.
Blounts numbers were good, but i think any decent back would have put up similar/better numbers. He has little burst or break away speed. He is a decent North/South runner with good balance but has no wiggle/elusiveness, cant catch and is not an effecient short yardage back.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Look at Moreno's stats in the games Tebow started.
Its factored in, but its only a couple point difference. He is a talented player, but he has been severly overhyped on these boards. What have you seen from him that makes you think i am way off by having him ranked 16? What kind of numbers do you expect from him this season?
I think it helps to have a play making QB under center. He might lose a coupleTD's around the goalline, but Newton will likely help them get to the goalline more so it all evens out. Look at Chris Johnsons numbers with Vince Young at QB.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Didn't you have him ranked top 10 prior to the mall incident?
Just outside, but it had little to do with his fall. I actually only dropped him 3 points since then, i just felt like i had him ranked that high because i got caught up in the hype.
I would project 70 for 1000 and 9 TD's for the season. His leaping ability, moves, speed and hands are all plus skills. He is the next TO. My eyes don't lie. Physical freak. Hype has nothing to do with it.
My eyes dont lie either, they are wrong sometimes, but they never lie. Bryant is talented, but he is being valued at his upside right now.
Khalua83
Footballguy
Darel Scott.....7th rd? Pretty sure giants drafted him
Youre right, I meant a RB that would make the team.
thriftyrocker
Footballguy
Even if he's already getting FWP hype... Scott's not taking over for anyone anytime soon, but too soon to say he won't even make the team.
eaglesfan7
Footballguy
I agree with Go Deep on Dez Bryant. 16 is about right but everyone's feelings on players are different and you take him when you think it's good value otherwise it's reaching for players. Reaching doesn't always work out well but sometimes you take a chance on a guy.
As for Da'Rel Scott, I think he makes the team and takes some late season carries to give the other guys a breather. From there, you never know what can happen.
As for Da'Rel Scott, I think he makes the team and takes some late season carries to give the other guys a breather. From there, you never know what can happen.
Too small of a sample size to draw any conclusions. Especially since they were getting blown out early in two of the 3 games so they pretty much abandoned the running game. Plus with Fox in town now, im sure the running game is going to become more of a priority.
eakfootball
Footballguy
I don't understand these rankings at all. Why are Vick and Freeman at 16 and 17? And how can you have Best at 11 when he was average last year and will now be splitting carries? Jon Baldwin ahead of Brandon Lloyd? Torrey Smith ahead of Boldin?
Dez
Footballguy
Vick at 16 ? Freeman at 17 ?Wait you said Vick where ???????????
Im going to expalin this one more time since its my fault i never put it in the OP(which i have now done)These rankings are not your typical rankings. A players DS(dynasty score) is what you should be looking at. Vick may be 16th, but he has a dynasty score of 37, which is 1 point from being in the top 10 and 5 points from being 6th. Obviously alot of people will still thinks thats too low, but i have explained in here multiple times why i dont trust Vicks long term value. Same thing applies to Freeman who has a similar score to a bunch of other QB's, i just prefer those others QB by a small margin, but they are basically all in the same tier.Best was not average last year, he was playing on turf toe, two of them, after week 2. Yes, Brandon Lloyd is 30 years old, and has had exactly one good season. That was with Josh Mcdaniels, who was more responsible for the Broncos passing numbers last year than anyone else. Plus that was with Orton at QB, and it looks like Tebw will be starting, and with Jon Fox there, i think the Bronocs wil focus on the run more. So yes, i would rather take my chances on a young talented first round pick at WR. Did you watch Boldin last year? I know he is only 30 but he looked liked he was 40. Im a big fan on Smith, and would rather have the guy who is on his way up than the one who is on his way down.
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matttyl
Footballguy
You may have answered this before, but I'll ask again....what size league are your rankings based on? Meaning, how many teams (I saw the starting requirements for each team)? Would these rankings change at all for a league with more or less teams than you are basing them on? For smaller leagues, I would think the RB and WRs would be worth more. In bigger leagues, I would think that QBs and TEs would hold more value, as the drop off in those positions seem to be greater after 15 or so.
Next, and this may get a bit more complicated, but would your rankings change depending on what's already on your team?
Example - I'm in a 10 team league (we only start 1 QB each) and I'm lucky enough to have Aaron Rodgers as my #1 QB. As such, would Romo still be worth "48" if he's never going to be starting for me? I would think that if you have that kind of player, and that position already on "lockdown", then all the other players at that position would be worth much less, right?
Example 2 - I'm also lucky enough to have Finley in the same league (yeah, Packers fan). We again only start 1 at this position. Since I've already got him, shouldn't the "value" of other TEs be less to me?
Next, and this may get a bit more complicated, but would your rankings change depending on what's already on your team?
Example - I'm in a 10 team league (we only start 1 QB each) and I'm lucky enough to have Aaron Rodgers as my #1 QB. As such, would Romo still be worth "48" if he's never going to be starting for me? I would think that if you have that kind of player, and that position already on "lockdown", then all the other players at that position would be worth much less, right?
Example 2 - I'm also lucky enough to have Finley in the same league (yeah, Packers fan). We again only start 1 at this position. Since I've already got him, shouldn't the "value" of other TEs be less to me?
#$%$%#@!!!!!!'matttyl said:
I just spent 15 minutes writing up a long response to this and when i hit "add relpy" i found out i lost my internet connection and lost everything i just typed. Im not retyping it, but basically these rankings are based on 12 team leagues that start 1 QB, 6RB/WR, 1 TE, 1K, 7-10 IDP's. League size doesnt matter as much as starting requirements. In a 10 team league that starts 1 QB and only 4 RB/WR's the top QB's would be worth alot more because there are more RB and WR's to go around. If you are in a 14 team league thats starts 1 QB and 7 RB/WR's then QB's would be worth alot less because is such a huge need for RB's and WR's. Players value should absolutely not change base on how much depth you have at the position. Someone out there values that player at that score, and as long as that is true, that player has that value.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Just for a little clarification, I'll add a quote from another thread re: Moreno and his games with Tebow:Whoa. It reminded me of that clip from Inside the NFL when Denver gets close to the goal and Tebow starts yelling to the coaches that no one but him is touching the ball on the next play and he runs it in for a TD.
'ZWK said:
