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Facebook IPO thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter shader
- Start date
Yes, they have been doing this for some time. Facebook and other sites install something called a "super cookie" (also called Locally Shared Object or Flash Cookie) on your machine which tracks your activity on any sites with a Facebook button, like this site. Your privacy and anonymity is an illusion, my friend.so even if I don't have FB open, it is tracking my net activity?
Like, ALL of my activity?Christ, FB is like my ex-wife.
http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2009/08/11/super-cookies-lurk-in-your-browser/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_shared_object
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Tabasco Red
Footballguy
If I use Firefox only for logging into Facebook, and use Chrome to surf everything else, does that super cookie span multiple browsers?The wikipedia article sounds like it does.Yes, they have been doing this for some time. Facebook and other sites install something called a "super cookie" (also called Locally Shared Object or Flash Cookie) on your machine which tracks your activity on any sites with a Facebook button, like this site. Your privacy and anonymity is an illusion, my friend.so even if I don't have FB open, it is tracking my net activity?
Like, ALL of my activity?
http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2009/08/11/super-cookies-lurk-in-your-browser/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_shared_object
Abraham
Footballguy
Interesting, but the point remains.
Short Corner
Footballguy
Actually 25x earnings. The $1B figure was their profit FWIW. I have an order in for 100 shares at $17 and will look at put options, when they become available, until then.'Abraham said:
I'm not sure, I think so. There are add-ons for Firefox that will delete these off of your hard drive though.If I use Firefox only for logging into Facebook, and use Chrome to surf everything else, does that super cookie span multiple browsers?The wikipedia article sounds like it does.Yes, they have been doing this for some time. Facebook and other sites install something called a "super cookie" (also called Locally Shared Object or Flash Cookie) on your machine which tracks your activity on any sites with a Facebook button, like this site. Your privacy and anonymity is an illusion, my friend.so even if I don't have FB open, it is tracking my net activity?
Like, ALL of my activity?
http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2009/08/11/super-cookies-lurk-in-your-browser/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_shared_object
Earnings=profit
culdeus
Footballguy
I appreciate the tip. I didn't know these extensions existed.I'm not sure, I think so. There are add-ons for Firefox that will delete these off of your hard drive though.If I use Firefox only for logging into Facebook, and use Chrome to surf everything else, does that super cookie span multiple browsers?The wikipedia article sounds like it does.Yes, they have been doing this for some time. Facebook and other sites install something called a "super cookie" (also called Locally Shared Object or Flash Cookie) on your machine which tracks your activity on any sites with a Facebook button, like this site. Your privacy and anonymity is an illusion, my friend.so even if I don't have FB open, it is tracking my net activity?
Like, ALL of my activity?
http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2009/08/11/super-cookies-lurk-in-your-browser/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_shared_object
Better Privacy and Ghostery are good ones for this.I appreciate the tip. I didn't know these extensions existed.I'm not sure, I think so. There are add-ons for Firefox that will delete these off of your hard drive though.If I use Firefox only for logging into Facebook, and use Chrome to surf everything else, does that super cookie span multiple browsers?The wikipedia article sounds like it does.Yes, they have been doing this for some time. Facebook and other sites install something called a "super cookie" (also called Locally Shared Object or Flash Cookie) on your machine which tracks your activity on any sites with a Facebook button, like this site. Your privacy and anonymity is an illusion, my friend.so even if I don't have FB open, it is tracking my net activity?
Like, ALL of my activity?
http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2009/08/11/super-cookies-lurk-in-your-browser/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_shared_object
Facebook's stock is the Google+ of stocks.
'Abraham said:
Step 1: For $10/yr, Facebook should offer a Premium Membership. The Premium Membership will allow Premium Members to view how many times each non-Premium Member has viewed that Premium Member's page within the last week, month, or year.Step 2: $$$$$
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Maelstrom
Footballguy
Abraham. Thanks for your thoughts, I feel like the "Facebook Ad-sense" has to be the ultimate goal. I was thinking that low 20s would probably be a good place to buy in, if I was going to. I do a lot of work with businesses and Facebook pages, so I feel like I have a decent sense how the platform is really working, as opposed to someone who might just go there to post pictures or keep up with friends. Also have some of the same indicators that toadstool referred to, in that I see businesses flocking to Facebook right now, and would likely have a good sense if they started to back off. Every single pitch we go on now involves some sort of social, and Facebook is the 800lb gorilla.
Fennis
Footballguy
I see the problem. Abe's numbers don't include my wife's facebook usage, while goon's does.
hutchins929
Footballguy
I do... They just buy every other one that pops up.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
How much are we up?
dickey moe
Fingerpicker
You guys like catching falling knives?
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
Um where can I get this remover of super cookies?I appreciate the tip. I didn't know these extensions existed.I'm not sure, I think so. There are add-ons for Firefox that will delete these off of your hard drive though.If I use Firefox only for logging into Facebook, and use Chrome to surf everything else, does that super cookie span multiple browsers?The wikipedia article sounds like it does.Yes, they have been doing this for some time. Facebook and other sites install something called a "super cookie" (also called Locally Shared Object or Flash Cookie) on your machine which tracks your activity on any sites with a Facebook button, like this site. Your privacy and anonymity is an illusion, my friend.so even if I don't have FB open, it is tracking my net activity?
Like, ALL of my activity?
http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2009/08/11/super-cookies-lurk-in-your-browser/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_shared_object
Short Corner
Footballguy
Better Privacy add onUm where can I get this remover of super cookies?I appreciate the tip. I didn't know these extensions existed.I'm not sure, I think so. There are add-ons for Firefox that will delete these off of your hard drive though.If I use Firefox only for logging into Facebook, and use Chrome to surf everything else, does that super cookie span multiple browsers?The wikipedia article sounds like it does.Yes, they have been doing this for some time. Facebook and other sites install something called a "super cookie" (also called Locally Shared Object or Flash Cookie) on your machine which tracks your activity on any sites with a Facebook button, like this site. Your privacy and anonymity is an illusion, my friend.so even if I don't have FB open, it is tracking my net activity?
Like, ALL of my activity?
http://blogs.howstuffworks.com/2009/08/11/super-cookies-lurk-in-your-browser/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Local_shared_object
culdeus
Footballguy
Apparently yesterday Morgan had orders to trade large volumes at 33 for support and 35 to rally. When it got stuck in the range the volume dried up. There will be no support today from anyone except fanboys and dreamers.
goonsquad
Think different.
Now there are Facebook fanboys? Oh come on.
TheAristocrat
Footballguy
Currently $32.51 and still way overvalued.
Steve Tasker
Footballguy
IMO, I think the allure of Facebook is a lot stronger than you realize. I don't think that a material number of people will jump ship if, say, Robert Pattinson bashes Facebook in an interiew.Myspace tanked because the product sucked (if we're being honest) and a better option came along. Myspace's load times were horrible, search function barely worked, and the customizability of the pages was an absolute disaster, IMO. It was unreadable and unmanageable. Facebook took the same idea and made it remarkably better.That doesn't solve the problem of "how are they going to make money?" of course, but I think Facebook is a lot more entrenched in the public persona than you do, I guess.
I agree that Facebook made was a huge upgrade over MySpace, but who is to say that Google+ won't overtake Facebook at some point in the future? And if not Google, maybe another social media website will spring up that will be next hot thing and it'll catch like wildfire.IMO, Facebook is just way too much of a risk. It's such a "trendy" stock that could go out of favor in a heartbeat. I'd rather own a company that makes a product or provides a service that really doesn't show much a chance of going away anytime soon (not that Facebook will go way soon, but you get the point).
RUSF18
Footballguy
I will bet the current value of Facebook that Google+ will never overtake Facebook. What a complete disaster.
And I bet that AOL will always be my e-mail provider.....oh wait.....
shader
Footballguy
Well you are probably right in that people won't jump ship from Facebook for no reason. But what they will do is jump to a better option.What that option is? I don't know. If I knew, I'd start the site and try to net a couple billion dollars. But I feel pretty confident that it will exist, and when it does, people will flock to is when it becomes the "new cool" site, as opposed to the "old boring" site.Maybe it's a site that allows more customization of pages, aka Myspace, but has great functionality like facebook.I think there is a huge opportunity for an "all-in-one" site that is kind of a mix of Amazon, Facebook and Paypal.If Facebook goes that route and becomes a true one-stop shop, then the sky is the limit. As down as I am on Facebook, I would become really bullish, really fast if they made a few changes.
RUSF18
Footballguy
Hardly comparable. AOL's competitors developed their products, introduced them, and trounced AOL. AOL also had no plans for how to deal with broadband and local ISPs. They still tried making people use their software when it was completely unnecessary. Google+ has been around for a year and absolutely failed in its efforts to out-Facebook Facebook.And I bet that AOL will always be my e-mail provider.....oh wait.....
Facebook has going for it what Google always had: competent coding and stylistic sense. It will be very hard for someone to come along and make a faster, prettier, more functional social networking site because Facebook has a huge head start along with the competence to copy (or the money to buy) upstarts with one or two good ideas.There's no comparison to MySpace, which lacked pretty much any redeeming qualities other than becoming popular first.(And Facebook is already more customizable than MySpace ever was, if you want to spend the effort. If you don't want to do any coding yourself, you can use a third-party plug-in like Social Fixer with little effort.)I agree with the spirit of your point, however. Technology moves too fast to have a good idea of what social networking (or its business model) will look like ten years from now. I doubt Mark Zuckerberg has much of a clear idea, although his guess is probably far better than any of ours. So Facebook as an investment is necessarily risky. It's trading at a huge multiple of realistically foreseeable earnings, and there's no guarantee that it won't go the way of MySpace (although it would be for far different reasons — Yahoo! is probably the better potential comparison). You can't say that about Coca-Cola, for example.On the other hand, there's no doubting that Facebook's upside potential is also huge. Almost everyone has a Facebook account, and there's no telling what people will be using it for ten years from now (if it still exists). It could be the way people pay for everything instead of MasterCard. It could the primary way employers and employees are matched, or service-industry businesses and clients. It could be the way people consume all their media content, trouncing YouTube and TimeWarner. The possibilities are nearly limitless. You can't say that about Coca-Cola, either.Facebook is a boom-or-bust pick. It's Denarius Moore. (Too bad it's currently priced more like Miles Austin.)
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Steve Tasker
Footballguy
Sure, and I wasn't commenting on the stock, which I would not be comfortable buying at this time. My only point was that Facebook's stranglehold on the market is a lot stronger than Shader seemed to indicate in his post. He seemed to imply that people are on Facebook because it's "cool", and an attack on its coolness (such as a diss from a pop icon) would severely damage its user base. I really don't think that's true. When I first joined Facebook in fall 2004 (freshman in college at the time at one of the first wave of universities to have access to Facebook), it certainly was the "cool" thing to do. The coolness-factor went out the window when my parents and grandparents joined Facebook a few years later'eoMMan said:
. There is definitely no way to predict where we are in the future, whether Google+ overtakes it, whether something else overtakes it, etc.; there are always vulnerabilities in the internet-world. I just don't think it's as instantly-vulnerable as he made it seem.
David Dodds
Administrator
dipped my toe into Facebook buying 200 shares at 31.09<br>
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Dr. No
Footballguy
interesting.
David Dodds
Administrator
I think having 700M customers is worth a ton. I expect there will soon be a "Premium" Facebook and although most say they won't upgrade to it, enough will. And as the company starts leveraging their power base look for them to be a big player in the games world too (like Zynga). The creation of the Timeline was sheer genius. It will be the reason no one topples Facebook anytime soon. Once people have years worth of histories, they will not want to leave.
The pricing plan I would go for:
$1/month gives you these benefits:
- Unlimited timeline (else posts are scrubbed older than 3 years)
- ability to see who has checked in on you and how often (stalker alert)
- Extra features like game tokens, software integration, etc
- Businesses must have premium model
then once they have a huge subscription model, simply raise the price to $1.99 a month or $16 a year, etc. :boatloads:
The pricing plan I would go for:
$1/month gives you these benefits:
- Unlimited timeline (else posts are scrubbed older than 3 years)
- ability to see who has checked in on you and how often (stalker alert)
- Extra features like game tokens, software integration, etc
- Businesses must have premium model
then once they have a huge subscription model, simply raise the price to $1.99 a month or $16 a year, etc. :boatloads:
I disagree with the limited timeline, the longer the timeline the more you are invested and less likely to bail for the next best thing. Charging for the timeline would be very short sited and that doesn't seem like what fb has been about.
Incidentally, when I think about what could have been . . .I'm sure there are a bunch of stories like this, but I had a client that debuted a sort-of social networking site in 1999. MySpace didn't launch until 2003.'Maurile Tremblay said:
My client was a punk rock band, made up of computer programmers, called Dork. They started a site called Dork.com. They gave anyone who signed up a free email address. (There was something unusual about that at the time — maybe the fact that it could be used with POP3 servers, unlike other free email services like Yahoo! or Hotmail back then.) More importantly, it gave everyone a personalized a wall space (though it wasn't called that). The wall space was a form of free webhosting to make personal web pages, like GeoCities, except that people didn't have carte blanche to make whatever kind of page they wanted. The user had to use a built-in HTML editor, and the output was in a certain format such that everybody's page had a spot for other users to drop by and leave messages and stuff (similar to the MySpace wall). I didn't see the point of communicating that way instead of by email, but obviously the idea has caught on quite well since then. I wish I had a better recollection of what people were supposed to use the site for. (I remember that there was a music-sharing component: bands could upload and share their own songs.) As far as I remember, there was no way to search for other members. So I had dork.com/maurile and somebody else might have had dork.com/shuke, but unless we already knew each other's usernames (and therefore URL's), I don't think there was an easy way to find each other. That was, in hindsight, probably a huge whiff.
The site actually gained users for a while at a rate that caused them to think it could be a Really Big Thing. If only they knew... They had enough (self-)funding to support the server costs associated decent growth for a while. And they were getting ad revenues, though I'm not sure how much. I'm not sure exactly why it died. (Maybe it was the presence of ads, which Mark Zuckerberg correctly realized weren't cool.) Two of the guys went on to make many millions of dollars doing other things anyway, but the guy who did most of the programming...I'm not sure what happened to him.
The whole thing, this precursor to social networking, was pretty unique at the time. It makes me think about how much potential it had if only things had worked out differently. (And as far as I remember, I actually took a small equity stake instead of cash to do their start-up, although I could be wrong about that.)
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Dr. No
Footballguy
in what.. a short time frame?what if it went to 40 tomorrow? (it won't, but still) paper losses are kind of silly.especially since he never had the money before.I doubt he's going to be too bummed about going from 16 to even 10 billion... it's still several billion more than he could ever spend
FavreCo
Footballguy
Ever. It's already at like $5 billion evaporated so far and the end may not be near yet. This turd is toxic.
Dr. No
Footballguy
if it erodes down to a buck a share and he still has several million dollars I think he'll be able to make it.Guy could probably get a job coding at microsoft for a few hundred G's a year too.I suspect he'll remain solvent
I already rarely post anything there other than pics a little bit. Main reason being I think of something to say then think about will anybody get PO'd about it or think it's TMI, etc. They start going to a deal where anyone can see if I even looked at their page it might just be time for me to quit it altogether.
bagger
Footballguy
#lightmoneyonfire
ffldrew
Footballguy
Looks like Morgan Stanley will be getting into more hot water....analyst lowered earnings forecast which was shared with a few select individual and institutional customers and yet the underwriting arm increased the share price of the offering and the Smith Barney unit flooded retail investors with shares. Hard to say what should happen in the blackout prior to the IPO here - but some people are questioning MS quite a bit today.
goonsquad
Think different.
At it's highest (1999) Microsoft had a market cap of $618.9 billion ($846 billion adjusting for inflation to 2012). Today it's sitting at a market cap of $250 billion. I guarantee some Microsoft big dogs have "lost" more than $5 billion over that time frame. Gates owned nearly 10% of the shares at one time, I know he is giving a sizable portion of his wealth away but I would bet his "paper loses" over this time beat out Zuckerberg.
ODoyleRules
Footballguy
I think Otis' sportsbook account had more volatility than Zuckerburg's worth. YWIA.
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