Everyone is sleeping on.... (2 Viewers)

[drater]

Meachem. 1.75 fantasy points (no ppr) per career target. If he doubles his career high in targets (64), he'll score 200 plus points (again, standard) and be an absolute steal anywhere close to current ADP.

 

[RobertBobson]

This is going to seem like an odd one but.. Michael Vick. Last year he had a tremendous amount of hype, because his PPG average was so high. And he got moved up alot of people's draft boards, in Dynasty and redrafts far too high. And because he did not live up to the hype, I think people are backlashing too much against him. Yes, he comes with a considerable risk factor. Yes, you probably have to take a back up earlier than you'd normally like to with him. But, out of the players in the 6-12 range, He has by far the best chance of producing elite numbers ( at least , elite PPG numbers) and that upside is certainly worth the risk of him. I'd love getting him as the tenth qb off the board.

 

[griff321]

I'm not seeing a ton of ADP data, but from what I've seen it looks like Isaac Redman and Santonio Holmes are two mid to late round guys that could outproduce their ADP.

 

[gonzobill5]

QB: Alex Smith. I understand that he looked terrible for six years. Though I never heard the guy complain or make excuses about all the coaching/coordinator/offensive scheme changes he went through. And I loved how he played in the playoffs. I don't see him as a game manager like everyone else does. I see him as a player who has finally had a bit of success and a bit of confidence and is now ready to take the next step. You can draft him as your 3rd QB and I seriously think he has top 12 potential.

RB: CJ Spiller. I just don't understand how a dynamic 24 year old running back could be ranked outside the top 30 in redraft. I think he absolutely goes off this year and finishes as a RB1.

WR: Jeremy Maclin & Mario Manningham. Everything was setting up nicely for Maclin to jump into the elite tier before he got that illness. Despite that, he still had a decent year. As an Eagles fan, I'm hoping he gets back on track this year. I think Manningham is getting overlooked a bit too. Before taking a back seat to Cruz last year, Manningham showed he has the talent to play at a high level in this league. He's getting drafted as a WR4 and I think he could end up around top 25 if he plays up to his ability.

Because FJax is a better RB

Also, you might be a 49er homer, but there's no way Smith finishes as a QB1 or Manningham as WR2.

not a 49er homer. I think Smith finished around QB17 last year. Guys like fitzpatrick, dalton, flacco, sanchez, freeman all finished ahead of him. I could see him leapfrogging a bunch, if not all of those guys if he starts taking more chances down the field and gets a few more TDs.

Fred Jackson was a better RB. Is he still a better RB at 31 coming off an injury? That remains to be seen.

 

[MTskibum]

Joe Flacco

Last year he was qb 15

2 years ago he was qb 12

His adp is qb 21

He has better weapons than ever, but more importantly both the ravens and steelers defenses are falling apart at the seams.

He is entering his 5th year. Both eli manning and drew brees took major steps forward in their 5th year.

He is at worst a high end qb 2, and has potential to finish as a mid range qb 1. All for a late round pick.

 

[Shanahanigans]

I agree that people are sleeping on CJ Spiller. At the end of the season he looked like and absolute beast. In PPR I expect him to be considered at least a top 10 back by the end of the year, possibly top 5.

 

[Shanahanigans]

How about Taiwan Jones in dynasty. He can be had for peanuts, and at times showed off his explosive skill set last year.

 

[David Yudkin]

Joe Flacco

Last year he was qb 15

2 years ago he was qb 12

His adp is qb 21

He has better weapons than ever, but more importantly both the ravens and steelers defenses are falling apart at the seams.

He is entering his 5th year. Both eli manning and drew brees took major steps forward in their 5th year.

He is at worst a high end qb 2, and has potential to finish as a mid range qb 1. All for a late round pick.

More than any other QB, Flacco has benefited from injuries to other QB. Looking at 2010-2011 combined, he ranks 21st in fantasy ppg out of QBs that played at least 10 games.

 

[az_prof]

I think Randall Cobbis going to continue to ascend. Jones isnt improving, Driver is on his farewell tour, and Finley is a whole lot of hyper. They lack a pass receiving back as well. I think Conv ends up catching 60 balls. He is simply explosive, the Packers don’t have anyone else like him.

I agree 100%. I think that he nears 1000 yards this year. With the Packers base offense using three WR sets, and my feeling that he establishes the WR3 job as his instead of the rotation with Jones and Driver, I don't think it's far fetched that the Packers have three WR that produce 1000 yards. I love him long term. Jennings has a year remaining on his contract, and Nelson has one elite year under his belt. One way or another, I think Cobb will end up as the WR1 or 2 in a year or so.

I have Cobb in dynasty and like him long term, but this year? I don't see it. I could easily imagine him cutting in Jones and Driver's numbers, and therefore coming close to 45/650/5 TDs. But there is no way he get close to 1000 this year unless there is an injury to Jennings or Nelson.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Fred Davis...

He has an improvement at QB with RG3.. Last year had he not been suspended he would have caught 78 balls and went over 1000 yards. He was a top 5 TE last year in ppg and is still only 26 and improving. Shanney likes having a good pass catching TE in his offense like Sharpe was to him for many years in Denver.

 

[Grahamburn]

Meachem. 1.75 fantasy points (no ppr) per career target. If he doubles his career high in targets (64), he'll score 200 plus points (again, standard) and be an absolute steal anywhere close to current ADP.

The reason Meachem's targets are low and points per target are high is because he only runs deep routes, which just so happens to be the same type of routes San Diego will have him run.

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

Joe Flacco

He is at worst a high end qb 2, and has potential to finish as a mid range qb 1. All for a late round pick.

does adding Jacoby Jones really improve him that much???torrey smith is nice young weapon but really needs to learn to run routes as boldin really struggles to consistently separate.

 

[MU Seminole]

I think Randall Cobbis going to continue to ascend. Jones isnt improving, Driver is on his farewell tour, and Finley is a whole lot of hyper. They lack a pass receiving back as well. I think Conv ends up catching 60 balls. He is simply explosive, the Packers don’t have anyone else like him.

I agree 100%. I think that he nears 1000 yards this year. With the Packers base offense using three WR sets, and my feeling that he establishes the WR3 job as his instead of the rotation with Jones and Driver, I don't think it's far fetched that the Packers have three WR that produce 1000 yards. I love him long term. Jennings has a year remaining on his contract, and Nelson has one elite year under his belt. One way or another, I think Cobb will end up as the WR1 or 2 in a year or so.

I'm not so sure that Jennings moves on or Jordy regresses. And I still like Cobb. He's more talented than Jordy, but is a completely different player. He reminds me of Victor Cruz/Wes Welker.

Hines Ward is the rough comp for me and I see an eventual similar type of production, especially valuable in PPR. Love his talent and still only 21 y/o.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Welker wont have 100 catches

I'd love to hear the logic behind this. Welker > 100 catches is probably about the safest bet in fantasy football. He's been over 120 two of the last three years, and the year he wasn't he was returning in 9 months from a blown out knee. Randy Moss didn't command enough targets to prevent Welker from catching 100 balls, and Lloyd is nowhere remotely close to Randy Moss.

 

[menobrown]

One for each position:

QB-Carson Palmer- Will have benefit of full camp and nice weapons.

RB-Rashad Jennings- Lot's of people think he's returning from an ACL or severe knee injury. Never even had an operation. Was getting nice touches down stretch of 2010 season and with the wear and tear on MJD and his possible hold out I think a great handcuff here who might actually provide RB flex type numbers even with a healthy MJD.

WR- Davone Bess. Not an upside play but based on their current roster I view him as the Dolphins WR1 and think he can return to being a 70-80 catch guy. Again not a big upside play but if you find yourself thin at WR during the draft here's a guy I see going in the 12th-14th round range of 12 team PPR leagues who should be a usable fantasy WR3/4 type guy.

TE-Rob Housler- Big deal with him is if Heap makes the team. If so I project him to backup Heap which means he won't materialize until or if Heap gets hurt so chance he's more of a dynasty sleeper than redraft. If Heap fails to make team or gets hurt early from what I saw of this guy last year he's a very difficult cover and he could have had some huge games in his brief playing time but he failed to hold onto the ball. Assuming he can fix that he's a guy to keep an eye on.

 

[menobrown]

Welker wont have 100 catches

I'd love to hear the logic behind this. Welker > 100 catches is probably about the safest bet in fantasy football. He's been over 120 two of the last three years, and the year he wasn't he was returning in 9 months from a blown out knee. Randy Moss didn't command enough targets to prevent Welker from catching 100 balls, and Lloyd is nowhere remotely close to Randy Moss.

I think it will be close with Welker and 100 receptions myself. If was betting I'd take the under but again I think it's close.As for the logic it's as simple as more options than maybe at any time of Brady's Patriot career and I do think it makes a difference. The two games Hernandez missed Welker got a whopping 34 targets. 2 out of his 3 most targeted games of the season came with Hernandez out so I do think Brady having more options and more choices is going to lead a decent decrease in Welkers targets. Now Welker could drop 30 targets and still hit 100 catches so I'm not discounting that but I think there is logic behind those who feel he won't hit that number.

 

[Hoosier16]

Andre Holmes WR Dallas

Laurent Robinson is gone. Somebody has got to pick up the slack. The Cowboys didn't draft a WR with their early draft picks and Danny Coale (who may work out down the line as a slot receiver) broke a bone in his foot which will set back his shot at the 3rd WR position in the short term. And I really can't take Kevin Ogletree seriously as finally having a breakout year.

Holmes was the first name out of Jerry Jones’ mouth at the scouting combine in February when the Cowboys’ owner/general manager discussed the possibility of losing Laurent Robinson in free agency. http://espn.go.com/b...ut-andre-holmes

Maybe the Cowboys take another underachieving veteran like Robinson. But maybe they don't and the answer is on their bench. They have had good luck with off the radar players from smaller schools (Romo, Miles Austin). Is Holmes in that category? Who knows, but he was not rostered (until I grabbed him) in any dynasty league I am in that has open waivers, so, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. I think that during training camp we should have a pretty good idea of where he stands.

Very nice. I love having to look someone up. That's what makes these threads great.Ricardo Lockette. Big WR with 4.34 speed. Nothing too established in front of him on the depth chart. You have to like his 52.5 ypc on two catches last year.

 

[bengalbuck]

QB: Alex Smith. I understand that he looked terrible for six years. Though I never heard the guy complain or make excuses about all the coaching/coordinator/offensive scheme changes he went through. And I loved how he played in the playoffs. I don't see him as a game manager like everyone else does. I see him as a player who has finally had a bit of success and a bit of confidence and is now ready to take the next step. You can draft him as your 3rd QB and I seriously think he has top 12 potential.

RB: CJ Spiller. I just don't understand how a dynamic 24 year old running back could be ranked outside the top 30 in redraft. I think he absolutely goes off this year and finishes as a RB1.

WR: Jeremy Maclin & Mario Manningham. Everything was setting up nicely for Maclin to jump into the elite tier before he got that illness. Despite that, he still had a decent year. As an Eagles fan, I'm hoping he gets back on track this year. I think Manningham is getting overlooked a bit too. Before taking a back seat to Cruz last year, Manningham showed he has the talent to play at a high level in this league. He's getting drafted as a WR4 and I think he could end up around top 25 if he plays up to his ability.

Because FJax is a better RB

Also, you might be a 49er homer, but there's no way Smith finishes as a QB1 or Manningham as WR2.

not a 49er homer. I think Smith finished around QB17 last year. Guys like fitzpatrick, dalton, flacco, sanchez, freeman all finished ahead of him. I could see him leapfrogging a bunch, if not all of those guys if he starts taking more chances down the field and gets a few more TDs.

Fred Jackson was a better RB. Is he still a better RB at 31 coming off an injury? That remains to be seen.

FWIW, while he was 17th in overall points, he was all the way down at 26th in points per game. Guys like Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, John Skelton, Tim Tebow, etc. all scored more points per game than he did but didn't start the whole year. To get to top 12, he'd not only have to jump almost all of the guys you mentioned and outdo rookies like RG3 and Luck, but he'd also have to put up bigger numbers than some guys like Schaub and Cutler who were well ahead of him before their injuries.

 

[Omniscient Deity]

QB- Matt Schaub: I really like his ADP for a guy who is a good QB and has one of the best WR's in the game to work with. I think he's a nice low-risk, medium-reward type of pick.

RB- C.J. Spiller: I think this is the year that he really pushes F-Jax and shows what he's capable of. A bargain in dynasty startup drafts.

WR- Santana Moss: The forgotten receiver in Washington. I still think he has another solid season left in him and will put up WR3 with Griffin as long as he sees the field enough this year.

TE- Owen Daniels: Similar to Schaub. This guy has been a solid producer before and if he and Schaub can both stay healthy for 16 games this season then he's a steal at his current ADP, especially in PPR leagues. I will admit that it looked like he had lost a step last year after his injuries/surgery, but he's a very good route runner with great hands that knows how to get open.

PS: I'm not a Texans fan.

 

[Donnybrook]

Joe Flacco

Last year he was qb 15

2 years ago he was qb 12

His adp is qb 21

He has better weapons than ever, but more importantly both the ravens and steelers defenses are falling apart at the seams.er

He is entering his 5th year. Both eli manning and drew brees took major steps forward in their 5th year.

He is at worst a high end qb 2, and has potential to finish as a mid range qb 1. All for a late round pick.

More than any other QB, Flacco has benefited from injuries to other QB. Looking at 2010-2011 combined, he ranks 21st in fantasy ppg out of QBs that played at least 10 games.

How does that make sense? Doesn't every QB benefits from injuries to other QBs?

 

[Touchdown There]

Joe Flacco

Last year he was qb 15

2 years ago he was qb 12

His adp is qb 21

He has better weapons than ever, but more importantly both the ravens and steelers defenses are falling apart at the seams.er

He is entering his 5th year. Both eli manning and drew brees took major steps forward in their 5th year.

He is at worst a high end qb 2, and has potential to finish as a mid range qb 1. All for a late round pick.

More than any other QB, Flacco has benefited from injuries to other QB. Looking at 2010-2011 combined, he ranks 21st in fantasy ppg out of QBs that played at least 10 games.

How does that make sense? Doesn't every QB benefits from injuries to other QBs?

I think he is saying that Flacco's points per game is pretty crappy compared to the elite guys.

 

[David Yudkin]

Joe Flacco

Last year he was qb 15

2 years ago he was qb 12

His adp is qb 21

He has better weapons than ever, but more importantly both the ravens and steelers defenses are falling apart at the seams.er

He is entering his 5th year. Both eli manning and drew brees took major steps forward in their 5th year.

He is at worst a high end qb 2, and has potential to finish as a mid range qb 1. All for a late round pick.

More than any other QB, Flacco has benefited from injuries to other QB. Looking at 2010-2011 combined, he ranks 21st in fantasy ppg out of QBs that played at least 10 games.

How does that make sense? Doesn't every QB benefits from injuries to other QBs?

He looks better on paper and in his rankings because he plays all the time.Put another way, I would much rather have a number of other QBs with higher PPG numbers and then play a generic back up should that guy get hurt. For example, if Vick or Schaub went down, my fantasy team won't get a zero at the QB spot . . . but the rankings would give those players a 0 for the weeks they don't play, which would allow Flacco to rank higher.

Factor in that many of your opponents will be playing truly elite QBs and you could be losing 8-10 points a week by playing Flacco. The key to winning in fantasy is to maximize your scoring on a week to week basis. IMO, playing Flacco plays against that (unless of course he puts up numbers leaps and bounds better than he has to date).

 

[gonzobill5]

QB: Alex Smith. I understand that he looked terrible for six years. Though I never heard the guy complain or make excuses about all the coaching/coordinator/offensive scheme changes he went through. And I loved how he played in the playoffs. I don't see him as a game manager like everyone else does. I see him as a player who has finally had a bit of success and a bit of confidence and is now ready to take the next step. You can draft him as your 3rd QB and I seriously think he has top 12 potential.

RB: CJ Spiller. I just don't understand how a dynamic 24 year old running back could be ranked outside the top 30 in redraft. I think he absolutely goes off this year and finishes as a RB1.

WR: Jeremy Maclin & Mario Manningham. Everything was setting up nicely for Maclin to jump into the elite tier before he got that illness. Despite that, he still had a decent year. As an Eagles fan, I'm hoping he gets back on track this year. I think Manningham is getting overlooked a bit too. Before taking a back seat to Cruz last year, Manningham showed he has the talent to play at a high level in this league. He's getting drafted as a WR4 and I think he could end up around top 25 if he plays up to his ability.

Because FJax is a better RB

Also, you might be a 49er homer, but there's no way Smith finishes as a QB1 or Manningham as WR2.

not a 49er homer. I think Smith finished around QB17 last year. Guys like fitzpatrick, dalton, flacco, sanchez, freeman all finished ahead of him. I could see him leapfrogging a bunch, if not all of those guys if he starts taking more chances down the field and gets a few more TDs.

Fred Jackson was a better RB. Is he still a better RB at 31 coming off an injury? That remains to be seen.

FWIW, while he was 17th in overall points, he was all the way down at 26th in points per game. Guys like Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, John Skelton, Tim Tebow, etc. all scored more points per game than he did but didn't start the whole year. To get to top 12, he'd not only have to jump almost all of the guys you mentioned and outdo rookies like RG3 and Luck, but he'd also have to put up bigger numbers than some guys like Schaub and Cutler who were well ahead of him before their injuries.

I agree. I was just pointing out that he finished QB17 despite having a pretty lousy fantasy season so finishing top 12 this year is not completely out of reach (though most people obviously disagree)

 

[Ballstein]

Jake Locker...the next great QB.

 

[loose circuits]

I think Randall Cobbis going to continue to ascend. Jones isnt improving, Driver is on his farewell tour, and Finley is a whole lot of hyper. They lack a pass receiving back as well. I think Conv ends up catching 60 balls. He is simply explosive, the Packers don’t have anyone else like him.

All Saine does is catch the ball well?

 

[krsone21]

Tony Moeaki

People forget how good this guy was a rookie. Healthy now, he will way outproduce his ADP.

he's healthy now, but he's been injured off and on since he was drafted. i dont think people are sleeping on him, i think they're just concerned he cannot stay healthy.

Moeaki also had injury problems while at Iowa as well. Moeaki has a lot of potential his only knock is staying healthy.

 

[Pipes]

Jermaine Gresham. Has all of the physical tools and Dalton should improve in his 2nd season. Green is going to be the focus of many d coordinators so Gresham has a chance to be a real threat.

 

[squistion]

Andre Holmes WR Dallas

Laurent Robinson is gone. Somebody has got to pick up the slack. The Cowboys didn't draft a WR with their early draft picks and Danny Coale (who may work out down the line as a slot receiver) broke a bone in his foot which will set back his shot at the 3rd WR position in the short term. And I really can't take Kevin Ogletree seriously as finally having a breakout year.

Holmes was the first name out of Jerry Jones’ mouth at the scouting combine in February when the Cowboys’ owner/general manager discussed the possibility of losing Laurent Robinson in free agency. http://espn.go.com/b...ut-andre-holmes

Maybe the Cowboys take another underachieving veteran like Robinson. But maybe they don't and the answer is on their bench. They have had good luck with off the radar players from smaller schools (Romo, Miles Austin). Is Holmes in that category? Who knows, but he was not rostered (until I grabbed him) in any dynasty league I am in that has open waivers, so, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. I think that during training camp we should have a pretty good idea of where he stands.

Very nice. I love having to look someone up. That's what makes these threads great.Ricardo Lockette. Big WR with 4.34 speed. Nothing too established in front of him on the depth chart. You have to like his 52.5 ypc on two catches last year.

Did a little research on him and liked what I saw - quick and with good hands. I think he has a real good shot if Mike Williams can't get in shape and/or control his weight.

 

[sspunisher]

I think Randall Cobbis going to continue to ascend. Jones isnt improving, Driver is on his farewell tour, and Finley is a whole lot of hyper. They lack a pass receiving back as well. I think Conv ends up catching 60 balls. He is simply explosive, the Packers don’t have anyone else like him.

I agree 100%. I think that he nears 1000 yards this year. With the Packers base offense using three WR sets, and my feeling that he establishes the WR3 job as his instead of the rotation with Jones and Driver, I don't think it's far fetched that the Packers have three WR that produce 1000 yards. I love him long term. Jennings has a year remaining on his contract, and Nelson has one elite year under his belt. One way or another, I think Cobb will end up as the WR1 or 2 in a year or so.

I'm not so sure that Jennings moves on or Jordy regresses. And I still like Cobb. He's more talented than Jordy, but is a completely different player. He reminds me of Victor Cruz/Wes Welker.

Driver coming back was an unfortunate blow below the belt to one of my dynasty teams. I agree that this will postpone Cobb's coming out party temporarily. As for comparisons, I don't really see much Cruz and Welker in Cobb. Personally, Steve Smith is all I can think of when trying to compare him with someone. He's short but plays big and is amazing after the catch, although Smith has the edge in speed while Cobb has the edge in RAC ability/vision. Either way, Cobb will have the career that Steve Smith should have had...since he has the good fortune of having an elite QB.

 

[EBF]

From a risk/reward standpoint, I like Clyde Gates. I don't think he has a high probability of success, but the potential for stardom is there and the price tag is very cheap. Definitely a good option for a last round "who?" kind of pick in redraft leagues

 

[azalenko]

It's Jason Snelling for me

 

[drater]

Meachem. 1.75 fantasy points (no ppr) per career target. If he doubles his career high in targets (64), he'll score 200 plus points (again, standard) and be an absolute steal anywhere close to current ADP.

The reason Meachem's targets are low and points per target are high is because he only runs deep routes, which just so happens to be the same type of routes San Diego will have him run.

That's the common response I see when Meachem comes up but do you seriously think San Diego signed him to be their 5th option in the passing game? VJAX had 115 targets last year, Meachem is "replacing" him and has never topped 64 targets. Something has to give, either he regresses terribly or explodes with the increased opportunity, I'm betting the former.

 

[loose circuits]

Andre Holmes WR Dallas

Laurent Robinson is gone. Somebody has got to pick up the slack. The Cowboys didn't draft a WR with their early draft picks and Danny Coale (who may work out down the line as a slot receiver) broke a bone in his foot which will set back his shot at the 3rd WR position in the short term. And I really can't take Kevin Ogletree seriously as finally having a breakout year.

Holmes was the first name out of Jerry Jones’ mouth at the scouting combine in February when the Cowboys’ owner/general manager discussed the possibility of losing Laurent Robinson in free agency. http://espn.go.com/b...ut-andre-holmes

Maybe the Cowboys take another underachieving veteran like Robinson. But maybe they don't and the answer is on their bench. They have had good luck with off the radar players from smaller schools (Romo, Miles Austin). Is Holmes in that category? Who knows, but he was not rostered (until I grabbed him) in any dynasty league I am in that has open waivers, so, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. I think that during training camp we should have a pretty good idea of where he stands.

Very nice. I love having to look someone up. That's what makes these threads great.Ricardo Lockette. Big WR with 4.34 speed. Nothing too established in front of him on the depth chart. You have to like his 52.5 ypc on two catches last year.

Did a little research on him and liked what I saw - quick and with good hands. I think he has a real good shot if Mike Williams can't get in shape and/or control his weight.

the problem is Baldwin, Tate, and Durham are all fighting for that spot and performing well. Also, will they be run heavy and have a lot of 2 TE sets now?

 

[squistion]

Andre Holmes WR Dallas

Laurent Robinson is gone. Somebody has got to pick up the slack. The Cowboys didn't draft a WR with their early draft picks and Danny Coale (who may work out down the line as a slot receiver) broke a bone in his foot which will set back his shot at the 3rd WR position in the short term. And I really can't take Kevin Ogletree seriously as finally having a breakout year.

Holmes was the first name out of Jerry Jones’ mouth at the scouting combine in February when the Cowboys’ owner/general manager discussed the possibility of losing Laurent Robinson in free agency. http://espn.go.com/b...ut-andre-holmes

Maybe the Cowboys take another underachieving veteran like Robinson. But maybe they don't and the answer is on their bench. They have had good luck with off the radar players from smaller schools (Romo, Miles Austin). Is Holmes in that category? Who knows, but he was not rostered (until I grabbed him) in any dynasty league I am in that has open waivers, so, I think he is worth taking a flyer on. I think that during training camp we should have a pretty good idea of where he stands.

Very nice. I love having to look someone up. That's what makes these threads great.Ricardo Lockette. Big WR with 4.34 speed. Nothing too established in front of him on the depth chart. You have to like his 52.5 ypc on two catches last year.

Did a little research on him and liked what I saw - quick and with good hands. I think he has a real good shot if Mike Williams can't get in shape and/or control his weight.

the problem is Baldwin, Tate, and Durham are all fighting for that spot and performing well. Also, will they be run heavy and have a lot of 2 TE sets now?

Are they? According to Brock Huard and Mike Salk of ESPN radio, who discussed this in the link: http://mynorthwest.com/422/673135/Seahawks-have-high-hopes-for-Ricardo-Lockette, that spot is the split end position and is what Huard calls the "big body spot" and thinks that Baldwin and Tate "don't fit there." Huard feels that the opportunity then goes to either Lockette or Durham. However Durham doesn't have close to the speed that Lockette has, so IMO he has the edge. Plus, for what it is worth Pete Carroll really likes him:

http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nfl/6826/ricardo-lockette

Seahawks coach Pete Carroll says WR Ricardo Lockette is "a guy we really see a big future in.""He's got tremendous speed. ... He's got great skills," said Carroll. "He's 6-2 something and he's just learning the game. A very, very raw player but a guy that we really see a lot of great stuff."

 

[bengalbuck]

QB: Alex Smith. I understand that he looked terrible for six years. Though I never heard the guy complain or make excuses about all the coaching/coordinator/offensive scheme changes he went through. And I loved how he played in the playoffs. I don't see him as a game manager like everyone else does. I see him as a player who has finally had a bit of success and a bit of confidence and is now ready to take the next step. You can draft him as your 3rd QB and I seriously think he has top 12 potential.

RB: CJ Spiller. I just don't understand how a dynamic 24 year old running back could be ranked outside the top 30 in redraft. I think he absolutely goes off this year and finishes as a RB1.

WR: Jeremy Maclin & Mario Manningham. Everything was setting up nicely for Maclin to jump into the elite tier before he got that illness. Despite that, he still had a decent year. As an Eagles fan, I'm hoping he gets back on track this year. I think Manningham is getting overlooked a bit too. Before taking a back seat to Cruz last year, Manningham showed he has the talent to play at a high level in this league. He's getting drafted as a WR4 and I think he could end up around top 25 if he plays up to his ability.

Because FJax is a better RB

Also, you might be a 49er homer, but there's no way Smith finishes as a QB1 or Manningham as WR2.

not a 49er homer. I think Smith finished around QB17 last year. Guys like fitzpatrick, dalton, flacco, sanchez, freeman all finished ahead of him. I could see him leapfrogging a bunch, if not all of those guys if he starts taking more chances down the field and gets a few more TDs.

Fred Jackson was a better RB. Is he still a better RB at 31 coming off an injury? That remains to be seen.

FWIW, while he was 17th in overall points, he was all the way down at 26th in points per game. Guys like Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, John Skelton, Tim Tebow, etc. all scored more points per game than he did but didn't start the whole year. To get to top 12, he'd not only have to jump almost all of the guys you mentioned and outdo rookies like RG3 and Luck, but he'd also have to put up bigger numbers than some guys like Schaub and Cutler who were well ahead of him before their injuries.

I agree. I was just pointing out that he finished QB17 despite having a pretty lousy fantasy season so finishing top 12 this year is not completely out of reach (though most people obviously disagree)

Yeah, I think one of the biggest obstacles to Alex Smith (and also a guy like Flacco) reaching top 12 status in terms of fantasy is the talent level of their defenses. While Smith shouldn't have mentioned Cam when discussing it, his point was entirely correct that you can't judge guys in NFL terms simply by their cumulative stats, like passing yards. San Fran's D was so good that they could afford to take the air out of the ball, play it safe by running it a lot and making safe throws to the RBs and TEs. Baltimore's offense was similarly in those "play it safe" situations quite a bit last season. I can see why people like you are optimistic about Smith as he showed in the NO game in the playoffs that he could win a shootout if needed. But with all of San Fran's talent on the D side and how many of those guys they were able to retain, it seems like he won't be in too many shootouts this coming season and thus there will be a lot of games where even if he is efficient, he still may pass for under 200 yards because that's what the game plan calls for. Similarly with Flacco, he showed he could make the throws and looks great getting it deep to Torrey Smith, but if his D is dominating, its likely the offense will be a ton of Ray Rice and few risky deep bombs.

On the other hand, teams like Detroit, New Orleans, New England, Carolina and Green Bay all had relatively subpar defenses last year. That led to shootouts in some games. And in other games, their strategy was to stay extremely aggressive since a 7 or 10 point lead wasn't necessarily safe so even when they were ahead late, their QBs still continued to rack up big numbers while Smith/Flacco were just handing the ball off in the 4th quarter. When making projections for these QBs, a big part of the analysis has to be how their Defenses will fare in 2012. If Detroit for example got much improved play from its secondary, I'd expect Stafford wouldn't come close to 5,000 yards again.

 

[gonzobill5]

QB: Alex Smith. I understand that he looked terrible for six years. Though I never heard the guy complain or make excuses about all the coaching/coordinator/offensive scheme changes he went through. And I loved how he played in the playoffs. I don't see him as a game manager like everyone else does. I see him as a player who has finally had a bit of success and a bit of confidence and is now ready to take the next step. You can draft him as your 3rd QB and I seriously think he has top 12 potential.

RB: CJ Spiller. I just don't understand how a dynamic 24 year old running back could be ranked outside the top 30 in redraft. I think he absolutely goes off this year and finishes as a RB1.

WR: Jeremy Maclin & Mario Manningham. Everything was setting up nicely for Maclin to jump into the elite tier before he got that illness. Despite that, he still had a decent year. As an Eagles fan, I'm hoping he gets back on track this year. I think Manningham is getting overlooked a bit too. Before taking a back seat to Cruz last year, Manningham showed he has the talent to play at a high level in this league. He's getting drafted as a WR4 and I think he could end up around top 25 if he plays up to his ability.

Because FJax is a better RB

Also, you might be a 49er homer, but there's no way Smith finishes as a QB1 or Manningham as WR2.

not a 49er homer. I think Smith finished around QB17 last year. Guys like fitzpatrick, dalton, flacco, sanchez, freeman all finished ahead of him. I could see him leapfrogging a bunch, if not all of those guys if he starts taking more chances down the field and gets a few more TDs.

Fred Jackson was a better RB. Is he still a better RB at 31 coming off an injury? That remains to be seen.

FWIW, while he was 17th in overall points, he was all the way down at 26th in points per game. Guys like Matt Schaub, Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, John Skelton, Tim Tebow, etc. all scored more points per game than he did but didn't start the whole year. To get to top 12, he'd not only have to jump almost all of the guys you mentioned and outdo rookies like RG3 and Luck, but he'd also have to put up bigger numbers than some guys like Schaub and Cutler who were well ahead of him before their injuries.

I agree. I was just pointing out that he finished QB17 despite having a pretty lousy fantasy season so finishing top 12 this year is not completely out of reach (though most people obviously disagree)

Yeah, I think one of the biggest obstacles to Alex Smith (and also a guy like Flacco) reaching top 12 status in terms of fantasy is the talent level of their defenses. While Smith shouldn't have mentioned Cam when discussing it, his point was entirely correct that you can't judge guys in NFL terms simply by their cumulative stats, like passing yards. San Fran's D was so good that they could afford to take the air out of the ball, play it safe by running it a lot and making safe throws to the RBs and TEs. Baltimore's offense was similarly in those "play it safe" situations quite a bit last season. I can see why people like you are optimistic about Smith as he showed in the NO game in the playoffs that he could win a shootout if needed. But with all of San Fran's talent on the D side and how many of those guys they were able to retain, it seems like he won't be in too many shootouts this coming season and thus there will be a lot of games where even if he is efficient, he still may pass for under 200 yards because that's what the game plan calls for. Similarly with Flacco, he showed he could make the throws and looks great getting it deep to Torrey Smith, but if his D is dominating, its likely the offense will be a ton of Ray Rice and few risky deep bombs.

On the other hand, teams like Detroit, New Orleans, New England, Carolina and Green Bay all had relatively subpar defenses last year. That led to shootouts in some games. And in other games, their strategy was to stay extremely aggressive since a 7 or 10 point lead wasn't necessarily safe so even when they were ahead late, their QBs still continued to rack up big numbers while Smith/Flacco were just handing the ball off in the 4th quarter. When making projections for these QBs, a big part of the analysis has to be how their Defenses will fare in 2012. If Detroit for example got much improved play from its secondary, I'd expect Stafford wouldn't come close to 5,000 yards again.

While I don't expect san fran's defense to take a step back, I do see games against GB, Det, NYG, NO, and NE where Smith will probably have to air it out quite a bit for the niners to win the game no matter how well the defense plays.

 

[Grahamburn]

Meachem. 1.75 fantasy points (no ppr) per career target. If he doubles his career high in targets (64), he'll score 200 plus points (again, standard) and be an absolute steal anywhere close to current ADP.

The reason Meachem's targets are low and points per target are high is because he only runs deep routes, which just so happens to be the same type of routes San Diego will have him run.

That's the common response I see when Meachem comes up but do you seriously think San Diego signed him to be their 5th option in the passing game? VJAX had 115 targets last year, Meachem is "replacing" him and has never topped 64 targets. Something has to give, either he regresses terribly or explodes with the increased opportunity, I'm betting the former.

I think they signed him to come in and run deep routes to take the top off the defense.Do you expect Meachem to equal Vincent Jackson's target numbers? It's more logical to me that Floyd, Brown, and Gates' targets increase at the expense of the new deep threat. Jackson had 101, 107, and 114 targets with his 3 full years in the San Diego offense respectively. I don't see Meachem's targets doubling. It's possible he steps right in and duplicates Vincent Jackson's looks, but it's not likely. He's an interesting sleeper. A career 16.1 ypc receiver with a catch percentage of 63%. 100 targets would put him at 1,018 yards. Keep in mind though, Jackson's career catch percentage in this particular role is 55.5%.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Christian Ponder

I don't expect he'll be top 10, but I do think he'll fit in somewhere around 11-15. The addition of Kalil and Carlson will pay off big, IMO.

I'd rather take a chance on him than Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, for example.

 

[griff321]

Christian Ponder

I don't expect he'll be top 10, but I do think he'll fit in somewhere around 11-15. The addition of Kalil and Carlson will pay off big, IMO.

I'd rather take a chance on him than Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, for example.

Your homer is showing.I like it.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Pierre Garcon - being completely overlooked.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Christian Ponder

I don't expect he'll be top 10, but I do think he'll fit in somewhere around 11-15. The addition of Kalil and Carlson will pay off big, IMO.

I'd rather take a chance on him than Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, for example.

Your homer is showing.I like it.

Dalton threw for 3398/20/13 in starting all 16 games, but was only over 200 yards once in the last five, only threw multiple tds (2) once but zero TDs twice in the last seven. So I'm not high on him.I saw much more upside in Ponder before he got abused playing behind that horrid line. I'm thinking stats like an early career Eli Manning - 3500/22-25/17-20

 

[Hoosier16]

Meachem. 1.75 fantasy points (no ppr) per career target. If he doubles his career high in targets (64), he'll score 200 plus points (again, standard) and be an absolute steal anywhere close to current ADP.

The reason Meachem's targets are low and points per target are high is because he only runs deep routes, which just so happens to be the same type of routes San Diego will have him run.

That's the common response I see when Meachem comes up but do you seriously think San Diego signed him to be their 5th option in the passing game? VJAX had 115 targets last year, Meachem is "replacing" him and has never topped 64 targets. Something has to give, either he regresses terribly or explodes with the increased opportunity, I'm betting the former.

I think they signed him to come in and run deep routes to take the top off the defense.Do you expect Meachem to equal Vincent Jackson's target numbers? It's more logical to me that Floyd, Brown, and Gates' targets increase at the expense of the new deep threat. Jackson had 101, 107, and 114 targets with his 3 full years in the San Diego offense respectively. I don't see Meachem's targets doubling. It's possible he steps right in and duplicates Vincent Jackson's looks, but it's not likely. He's an interesting sleeper. A career 16.1 ypc receiver with a catch percentage of 63%. 100 targets would put him at 1,018 yards. Keep in mind though, Jackson's career catch percentage in this particular role is 55.5%.

It seems much more likely that his 2012 targets look like Jackson's in SD than his own in NO. SD isn't adopting the NO offense. Meachem is entering the SD offense.ETA: Over the last 3 years, VJax has had 245 targets in 35 games for 7 targets per game. Floyd filled that role for 10 games when VJax was out and had 76 targets for 7.6 targets per game. Crayton filled the role for 3 games when both VJax and FLoyd were out and had 22 targets or 7.3 targets per game. If Floyd and Crayton can fill the role and receive the same number of targets as VJax, what makes you think Meachem cannot?

 

[Tanner9919]

Fred Jackson - Spiller is the (over) hyped guy while Jackson is the the Real Deal

P. Garcon - big,tall WR's usually do very well in Shanny's offenses, add Garcon to the list..he's good at running deep routes, while RG3 is good at throwing deep routes.

I like what other's are saying about Donald Brown ,only I just dont' see people sleeping on him, he's going to be one of the top 8-10 Rb's selected..maybe even higher.

Ben Tate - this guy ripped off 100 yard games last year like it was a walk in the park for him..one injury to Foster and you're looking at the league's #1 RB..

I like what someone else said about Big Ben..this is going to be a good year to have him..

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Austin Collie... He will be starting and Reggie Wayne still demands some coverage. He is great in the slot and Luck is a capable QB. Obviously there are the concussion concerns, but you can get Collie for a bag of peanuts.

 

[Wildcat]

I like what other's are saying about Donald Brown ,only I just dont' see people sleeping on him, he's going to be one of the top 8-10 Rb's selected..maybe even higher.

 

[lbouchard]

Fred Jackson - Spiller is the (over) hyped guy while Jackson is the the Real Deal

P. Garcon - big,tall WR's usually do very well in Shanny's offenses, add Garcon to the list..he's good at running deep routes, while RG3 is good at throwing deep routes.

I like what other's are saying about Donald Brown ,only I just dont' see people sleeping on him, he's going to be one of the top 8-10 Rb's selected..maybe even higher.

Ben Tate - this guy ripped off 100 yard games last year like it was a walk in the park for him..one injury to Foster and you're looking at the league's #1 RB..

I like what someone else said about Big Ben..this is going to be a good year to have him..

Are you assuming that 20 RBs are already off the board? Or are we talking rookie/FA draft?

 

[plastik]

SHONN GREENE - Just don't understand the hate this guy seems get.He's avg ypc career is over 4.0Contract year + Tony S+ Slimmed down + No LT = decent shot at good #'s

+1I know he's not a dynamic talent, but he'll be getting a lot of carries this year. He looks to me like a pretty good bet to finish around RB18-20 again and (according to MFL) is being drafted around RB26/27. I recently went back and watched some of his game footage from last year and I saw a guy that runs hard and breaks a fair number of tackles... fits nicely what Tony Sparano wants to do, imo.

 

[Sake-Bombers]

Christian PonderI don't expect he'll be top 10, but I do think he'll fit in somewhere around 11-15. The addition of Kalil and Carlson will pay off big, IMO.I'd rather take a chance on him than Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, for example.

I mentioned Rudolph before as a guy I really like to have a second year breakout, but I know you follow the Vikings and see you mentioned Carlson. Do you see Carlson outscoring Rudolph?Either way, as far as your Ponder call, he does have a lot of potential weapons, and theoretically they'll be throwing a lot this year given how many think they'll perform.

 

[Bronx Bomber]

How about Sidney Rice? He's ranked all over the place. I've seen mid 20s to late 30s. Could be good value if people are forgetting about him or scared of him. Seems like a good risk/reward type.

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Christian PonderI don't expect he'll be top 10, but I do think he'll fit in somewhere around 11-15. The addition of Kalil and Carlson will pay off big, IMO.I'd rather take a chance on him than Andy Dalton, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, for example.

I mentioned Rudolph before as a guy I really like to have a second year breakout, but I know you follow the Vikings and see you mentioned Carlson. Do you see Carlson outscoring Rudolph?Either way, as far as your Ponder call, he does have a lot of potential weapons, and theoretically they'll be throwing a lot this year given how many think they'll perform.

Still a crapshoot at this point as to how they plan on using them together. If it were me, I'd expect better numbers from Rudolph.