Facebook IPO thread (1 Viewer)

[toadstool]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

In the green?

Toadspeak

nah, mispeak

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Waaaiiittt a second. Updates on a facebook fan pages don't go into the feed of everyone that liked the page? I had no idea. I always thought that it not reaching all the fans was just a matter of people not being on facebook when I posted an update and their new feed updates pushing it too far down their page by the next time they logged on. So when the "reach" says that it got to 11% or whatever, that's just people who's page it actually showed on, not just the people who actually "saw" it before it moved off the front page of their feed?Wow, I have a fan page w/ 1,000,000+ fans and I never knew this.I'm not sure if they've changed things recently, but my user interaction is way down since timeline went into play. I used to post a link to an article on the page and it would get 30,000 views from facebook, not it's lucky to get 1,000.

That's pretty interesting.

 

[culdeus]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Last time you said your goal was to have 3000 shares. Why the increase?

Actually my goal was to spend $100K on fb. So yes I did increase to about $120K mostly on a dare from a friend.

cool story bro

 

[Premier]

Favreco update?

 

[Guinis72]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Last time you said your goal was to have 3000 shares. Why the increase?

Actually my goal was to spend $100K on fb. So yes I did increase to about $120K mostly on a dare from a friend.

If you don't mind me asking, what's your expectation for the price in 12-18 mos? I bought at $40.05 and am thinking that I'll just be happy to get my money back at this point. Good start this morning though!

 

[Maelstrom]

Looks like Facebook was already ready to start pushing their ads to 3rd party websites:

http://techcrunch.com/2012/06/22/we-are-not-afraid/

Facebook’s share price jumped up 3.8% to $33.05 today on news that it’s now showing its ads on Zynga.com in a revenue sharing partnership.

 

[urbanhack]

http://adage.com/article/digital/ad-age-survey-marketers-love-facebook-idea-ads-work/235642/

Ad Age Survey: Marketers Love Facebook, But Many Have No Idea If Their Ads Work

When it comes to Facebook, the nation's marketers have reached an overwhelming consensus: you simply have to be there.

Unfortunately for Facebook, they also have reached another: advertising on Facebook isn't necessarily required.

Those are the biggest takeaways from a survey of Advertising Age readers conducted in conjunction with Citigroup to gain insight on how marketers view Facebook and what their specific plans are in terms of spending marketing budgets there.

The 658 subscribers who took Ad Age's survey over the past two weeks characterized themselves as decision-makers in social marketing. The respondents were 34% marketers, 34% agency execs, 13% media execs, and various consultants and other members of the marketing ecosystem.

The results were a mixed bag for Facebook that illuminated some of the challenges it will have in scaling ad revenue, but it also indicated that some of Facebook's perceived challenges with marketers -- such as not providing enough transparency and data -- are overblown.

The results also revealed confusion on how to calculate return on investment on Facebook and how to compare that to spending in other social and traditional media channels.

Remarkably, Ad Age readers surveyed speak in virtual unison on two questions. Nearly 86% of those surveyed say they currently use Facebook as a marketing tactic. Only 55%, however, say they currently advertise on Facebook, and nearly 88% said they would implement Facebook content without advertising at all.

Those results closely mirror what we've heard in conversations with marketers, particularly after GM revealed that it was pulling its ad dollars from Facebook even as it spent tens of millions to build and maintain the presence of their many auto brands on Facebook.

Of the readers surveyed, 47% said their digital ad budgets were still less than 20% of their total. Nearly 50% said their budgets designated for social-media marketing were less than 10%. That said, 77% said they expected their digital-marketing budgets to increase in the coming year, while 73% said they expected their social-media advertising budget to increase.

While 72% said they expected their social-media advertising budget to increase, only 56.6% said they thought their Facebook advertising budget would increase, while nearly 40% believed it would stay the same.

"I think it comes down to measurement," said Michael Scissons, CEO of Syncapse. "If you are a direct-response marketer it's easy to measure. If you're a brand marketer, it becomes much more intangible to track the point of sale."

That said, 72% said they consider their Facebook content efforts and advertising strategies to be linked, showing a widespread belief in the interplay between earned and paid media on Facebook. A sponsored story, for example, is just Facebook content turned into an ad and shown to more people. As the theory goes, the better the content, the more effective the ad.

<snip>

 

[urbanhack]

http://adage.com/article/digitalnext/facebook-biggest-player-advertising-s-540-billion-world/235708/

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

FB has a new feature, lets you translate other people's posts on the fly. What is interesting is I am viewing FB in chrome, I click translate and it says "translated by Bing".

 

[toadstool]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Last time you said your goal was to have 3000 shares. Why the increase?

Actually my goal was to spend $100K on fb. So yes I did increase to about $120K mostly on a dare from a friend.

If you don't mind me asking, what's your expectation for the price in 12-18 mos? I bought at $40.05 and am thinking that I'll just be happy to get my money back at this point. Good start this morning though!

I would like my $120K investment worth at least $130. However, I am hoping for more obviously and feel safe in wanting a 7% increase while having a decent opportunity for more than that.

 

[Short Corner]

FB has a new feature, lets you translate other people's posts on the fly. What is interesting is I am viewing FB in chrome, I click translate and it says "translated by Bing".

This isn't new

 

[Jojo the circus boy]

FB has a new feature, lets you translate other people's posts on the fly. What is interesting is I am viewing FB in chrome, I click translate and it says "translated by Bing".

This isn't new

ichttp://www.insidefacebook.com/2011/10/05/bing-translate-pages/

 

[Iron_Far]

A couple of words scare me about this IPO: My Space. Not many years ago, they were the dominant social network, and FB came along as the hipper, cooler new kid. The hordes fled MS in droves in favor of FB. Now, of course, FB is seen as the Corporate Establishment. That said, I am more of a long term buy-n-hold guy, so that's why FB has no draw for me; but.....I'm sure that there is definitely the opportunity to make some short term profits off of what Dentist calls "irrational exuberance."

I really don't think MySpace has much to do with Facebook. You're comparing two sites with completely different visions and models.

Yes. Just like Footballguys has a completely different vision and models than FFToday.

 

[Sinn Fein]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Update?

 

[Short Corner]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Update?

Going to be really interesting in a couple weeks when the lockout period ends

 

[Premier]

Whoa. That's a pretty hefty drop. Wow.

 

[Tiger Fan]

Whoa. That's a pretty hefty drop. Wow.

Zuckerberg's net worth dropped $2B yesterday. That's got to sting

 

[Tiger Fan]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Last time you said your goal was to have 3000 shares. Why the increase?

Actually my goal was to spend $100K on fb. So yes I did increase to about $120K mostly on a dare from a friend.

I dare you to paypal me $1000. PM me for details.

 

[Maude]

 

[Premier]

Whoa. That's a pretty hefty drop. Wow.

Zuckerberg's net worth dropped $2B yesterday. That's got to sting

What's the reason for the drop? I haven't been following.

 

[toadstool]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Update?

I am down just over $30K of my $120K investment in fb. Still 10-16 months left to go, not really a noticable hit in my portfolio, but I still think the upside is worth the tiny risk. 10-16 months to go.I also may not be done buying, at $22 or $20 I might buy more.

 

[Slapdash]

Whoa. That's a pretty hefty drop. Wow.

Zuckerberg's net worth dropped $2B yesterday. That's got to sting

What's the reason for the drop? I haven't been following.

I think they lost something like 175mm last quarter. Revenue grew 32% which was apparently the slowest ever and their costs increased greatly.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Whoa. That's a pretty hefty drop. Wow.

Zuckerberg's net worth dropped $2B yesterday. That's got to sting

What's the reason for the drop? I haven't been following.

They reported a 32% gain in revenue last quarter (which was higher than wall street predicted I think) but also a loss of $100M I think? I'm not following close either.

 

[Slapdash]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Update?

I am down just over $30K of my $120K investment in fb. Still 10-16 months left to go, not really a noticable hit in my portfolio, but I still think the upside is worth the tiny risk. 10-16 months to go.

Maybe a good time to lower your average cost?

 

[Sinn Fein]

Whoa. That's a pretty hefty drop. Wow.

Zuckerberg's net worth dropped $2B yesterday. That's got to sting

What's the reason for the drop? I haven't been following.

Lack of guidance in the quarterly call is the primary driver of the immediate fall. I think the inference is that with a lack of guidance, FB is "hiding" poor projections.Lack of clarity on how FB will make money going forward is the long-term concern.

 

[Sinn Fein]

Whoa. That's a pretty hefty drop. Wow.

Zuckerberg's net worth dropped $2B yesterday. That's got to sting

What's the reason for the drop? I haven't been following.

They reported a 32% gain in revenue last quarter (which was higher than wall street predicted I think) but also a loss of $100M I think? I'm not following close either.

The loss was also expected, and driven by IPO-related expenses (i.e. non-recurring expenses)

 

[Slapdash]

Ouch, down 16% already today.

 

[toadstool]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Update?

I am down just over $30K of my $120K investment in fb. Still 10-16 months left to go, not really a noticable hit in my portfolio, but I still think the upside is worth the tiny risk. 10-16 months to go.

Maybe a good time to lower your average cost?

I have an outstanding order in at $22, that I will leave in. I don't watch a lot day to day, but on a big hit like today I might try and make sure I get in an order at the lower cost.

 

[Short Corner]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Update?

I am down just over $30K of my $120K investment in fb. Still 10-16 months left to go, not really a noticable hit in my portfolio, but I still think the upside is worth the tiny risk. 10-16 months to go.I also may not be done buying, at $22 or $20 I might buy more.

I find it hard to reconcile the position of high-upside/little risk with waiting for it to drop another 25% to lower your cost average. If you are long on FB, then now would be a good time to re-up.

 

[SacramentoBob]

Ouch, down 16% already today.

Might be time for OtisQuote™.

 

[Maude]

Whoa. That's a pretty hefty drop. Wow.

Zuckerberg's net worth dropped $2B yesterday. That's got to sting

What's the reason for the drop? I haven't been following.

They reported a 32% gain in revenue last quarter (which was higher than wall street predicted I think) but also a loss of $100M I think? I'm not following close either.

<--- Not on FB, but I seem to have noticed some friends dumping FB for Twitter. Not necessarily a trend yet, but worth noting.

 

[FavreCo]

Favreco update?

Sure. The POS is at an alltime low. Any questions?

 

[FavreCo]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Update?

I am down just over $30K of my $120K investment in fb. Still 10-16 months left to go, not really a noticable hit in my portfolio, but I still think the upside is worth the tiny risk. 10-16 months to go.I also may not be done buying, at $22 or $20 I might buy more.

You also could just cut out the middleman and write checks directly to Dodds.

 

[toadstool]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Update?

I am down just over $30K of my $120K investment in fb. Still 10-16 months left to go, not really a noticable hit in my portfolio, but I still think the upside is worth the tiny risk. 10-16 months to go.I also may not be done buying, at $22 or $20 I might buy more.

You also could just cut out the middleman and write checks directly to Dodds.

I could, but there is no potential upside in that.

 

[RUSF18]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Update?

I am down just over $30K of my $120K investment in fb. Still 10-16 months left to go, not really a noticable hit in my portfolio, but I still think the upside is worth the tiny risk. 10-16 months to go.I also may not be done buying, at $22 or $20 I might buy more.

I find it hard to reconcile the position of high-upside/little risk with waiting for it to drop another 25% to lower your cost average. If you are long on FB, then now would be a good time to re-up.

I've been calling bull#### since he started posting in this thread.

 

[optionmaven]

Lack of clarity on how FB will make money going forward is the long-term concern.

As an investor, even if you liked the company and had high expectations for them, wouldn't this give you concern before you put your hard earned money to work?? We all like to speculate, but if a company doesn't know where their revenue is coming from, surely i'm not the only one who see's a red light.

 

[Mario Kart]

If the stock falls below $20 ($14-$20) range, I think that would be the bottom it will go.

 

[Maude]

If the stock falls below $20 ($14-$20) range, I think that would be the bottom it will go.

Why? And the bottom is actually $0.

 

[Mario Kart]

If the stock falls below $20 ($14-$20) range, I think that would be the bottom it will go.

Why? And the bottom is actually $0.

FaceBook is not going anywhere in the short term. The revenue is key. If revenue from games is going to iOS or other places, FaceBook needs to find a way to reduce that. As of right now, FaceBook is not going to be a quick rich stock.

 

[shader]

No way is toadstool a real investor. It's got to be schtick.

Now it's possible he's a millionaire from investments or something else and is dabbling in the stock market, but no real investor buys, holds, buys more when it goes down, buys more when it goes down, and rides a stock into the ground.

Sometimes it's good to take a loss and let a stock crash. I think when it comes to Facebook, it's time to get the heck out of the way and let it crater.

 

[FavreCo]

If the stock falls below $20 ($14-$20) range, I think that would be the bottom it will go.

Why? And the bottom is actually $0.

FaceBook is not going anywhere in the short term. The revenue is key. If revenue from games is going to iOS or other places, FaceBook needs to find a way to reduce that. As of right now, FaceBook is not going to be a quick rich stock.

So far it's a get poor quick stock.

 

[Iron_Far]

I am now in the green in my 4000 shares of facebook. As of yesterday's close I was up about a whopping $750 for my 4000 shares. A nice 1/2 of a percent gain so far ;-)

Again I am here for the long run and am hoping these 4000 shares pay off looking out about 12 - 18 months.

Update?

I also may not be done buying, at $22 or $20 I might buy more.

Do your thing, Toad.

Don't let the haters bring you down to their level.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

... no real investor buys, holds, buys more when it goes down, buys more when it goes down, and rides a stock into the ground.

If toadstool thought it was a good buy at 30, why wouldn't he think it's an even better buy at 25?When the price of oranges falls, people rationally buy more oranges. When the price of Facebook stock falls . . . people should sell?If the stock falls because something about the business has changed, it's time to reevaluate, of course. But the mere fact that the price fell, in and of itself, is not an argument for selling; if anything, it's an argument for buying more.

 

[toadstool]

... no real investor buys, holds, buys more when it goes down, buys more when it goes down, and rides a stock into the ground.

If toadstool thought it was a good buy at 30, why wouldn't he think it's an even better buy at 25?When the price of oranges falls, people rationally buy more oranges. When the price of Facebook stock falls . . . people should sell?If the stock falls because something about the business has changed, it's time to reevaluate, of course. But the mere fact that the price fell, in and of itself, is not an argument for selling; if anything, it's an argument for buying more.

It was, and last time we were high mid 20s I purchased 1000. But I just can't purchase every second just because it is a price I like.

 

[siffoin]

... no real investor buys, holds, buys more when it goes down, buys more when it goes down, and rides a stock into the ground.

If toadstool thought it was a good buy at 30, why wouldn't he think it's an even better buy at 25?When the price of oranges falls, people rationally buy more oranges. When the price of Facebook stock falls . . . people should sell?If the stock falls because something about the business has changed, it's time to reevaluate, of course. But the mere fact that the price fell, in and of itself, is not an argument for selling; if anything, it's an argument for buying more.

It was, and last time we were high mid 20s I purchased 1000. But I just can't purchase every second just because it is a price I like.

I hope you do well on your investment. But your strategy is a poor one. Most investors would do a whole lot better if they sold their losers quickly and added and held on to their winners. Most (as you are showing here) tend towards the opposite -they hold onto losers and sell their winners too quickly (as I believe you've mentioned your goal is to eek out a profit of only 7% within the next 12-18 months....risking $4 to make $1 is no good).Again I have no skin in this game and you have quite a lot. I hope you beat the odds.

 

[Dentist]

<--- Not on FB, but I seem to have noticed some friends dumping FB for Twitter. Not necessarily a trend yet, but worth noting.

twitter may not have the user volume of FB internationally, but in the US all i see is twitter twitter twitter.. twitter on TV shows, hashtags everywhere.it's all over.facebook doesn't get nearly as much run.If i could i would buy twitter now as i don't think it's peaked yet... facebook seems to have peaked right at the point they released that IPO if not before

 

[Cliff Clavin]

<--- Not on FB, but I seem to have noticed some friends dumping FB for Twitter. Not necessarily a trend yet, but worth noting.

twitter may not have the user volume of FB internationally, but in the US all i see is twitter twitter twitter.. twitter on TV shows, hashtags everywhere.it's all over.facebook doesn't get nearly as much run.If i could i would buy twitter now as i don't think it's peaked yet... facebook seems to have peaked right at the point they released that IPO if not before

Twitter is going to run into the same issues as facebook. How do they make money? Advertising alone doesn't seem to be enough.

 

[SacramentoBob]

O/U on the # of months before FB files for bankruptcy protection?

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

... no real investor buys, holds, buys more when it goes down, buys more when it goes down, and rides a stock into the ground.

If toadstool thought it was a good buy at 30, why wouldn't he think it's an even better buy at 25?When the price of oranges falls, people rationally buy more oranges. When the price of Facebook stock falls . . . people should sell?If the stock falls because something about the business has changed, it's time to reevaluate, of course. But the mere fact that the price fell, in and of itself, is not an argument for selling; if anything, it's an argument for buying more.

It was, and last time we were high mid 20s I purchased 1000. But I just can't purchase every second just because it is a price I like.

I wasn't trying to tell you to purchase more; I was arguing against the idea that a drop in price is a sell signal. I was promoting fundamental analysis over technical analysis — especially the type of technical analysis that says "buy high, sell low."

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

O/U on the # of months before FB files for bankruptcy protection?

With $9 billion in cash alone (and another $2.5 billion in short-term investments) and less than $1.5 billion in total debt, I think it could be a while.