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Facebook IPO thread (1 Viewer)

'Statcruncher said:
'Sinn Fein said:
'Clifford said:
Only down $1.28 (6%). I expected worse.Funny thing is I have an idea that I honestly think could make this a $100 stock in one year, but have no idea how to get it to them.
If it was going ot be worse, the slide would have started before today. I think most folks see this as a ~ $20 stock.What they ought to do, is charge a nominal annual fee for access $10-20/year, and then provide storage space in the cloud for photos, etc.
I honestly don't think they've gone to user fees because they're afraid of exposing how few accounts are legitimate and truly active.
They recently divulged that information. 900million users, about 85million are fake or duplicate accounts. A little under 10%.
 
'Statcruncher said:
'Sinn Fein said:
'Clifford said:
Only down $1.28 (6%). I expected worse.Funny thing is I have an idea that I honestly think could make this a $100 stock in one year, but have no idea how to get it to them.
If it was going ot be worse, the slide would have started before today. I think most folks see this as a ~ $20 stock.What they ought to do, is charge a nominal annual fee for access $10-20/year, and then provide storage space in the cloud for photos, etc.
I honestly don't think they've gone to user fees because they're afraid of exposing how few accounts are legitimate and truly active.
They recently divulged that information. 900million users, about 85million are fake or duplicate accounts. A little under 10%.
Sure they did.
 
'Statcruncher said:
'Sinn Fein said:
'Clifford said:
Only down $1.28 (6%). I expected worse.

Funny thing is I have an idea that I honestly think could make this a $100 stock in one year, but have no idea how to get it to them.
If it was going ot be worse, the slide would have started before today. I think most folks see this as a ~ $20 stock.What they ought to do, is charge a nominal annual fee for access $10-20/year, and then provide storage space in the cloud for photos, etc.
I honestly don't think they've gone to user fees because they're afraid of exposing how few accounts are legitimate and truly active.
They recently divulged that information. 900million users, about 85million are fake or duplicate accounts. A little under 10%.
Sure they did.
So you don't believe CNN's reporting:83 million Facebook accounts are fakes and dupes - CNN http://bit.ly/N6CXug

83 million Facebook accounts are fakes and dupes

FACEBOOK

August 02, 2012|By Heather Kelly, CNN

Facebook profiles for non-humans, such as companies or pets, violate the social network's terms of service.

If you're using a fake name on your Facebook account, maintaining a personal profile for your beloved pet or have a second profile you use just for logging in to other sites, you have one of the 83.09 million fake accounts Facebook wants to disable.

In an updated regulatory filing released Wednesday, the social media company said that 8.7 percent of its 955 million monthly active users worldwide are actually duplicate or false accounts.

"On Facebook we have a really large commitment in general to finding and disabling false accounts," Facebook's chief security officer Joe Sullivan told CNN in a recent interview. "Our entire platform is based on people using their real identities."
 
So you don't believe CNN's reporting:

83 million Facebook accounts are fakes and dupes - CNN http://bit.ly/N6CXug

83 million Facebook accounts are fakes and dupes

FACEBOOK

August 02, 2012|By Heather Kelly, CNN

Facebook profiles for non-humans, such as companies or pets, violate the social network's terms of service.

If you're using a fake name on your Facebook account, maintaining a personal profile for your beloved pet or have a second profile you use just for logging in to other sites, you have one of the 83.09 million fake accounts Facebook wants to disable.

In an updated regulatory filing released Wednesday, the social media company said that 8.7 percent of its 955 million monthly active users worldwide are actually duplicate or false accounts.

"On Facebook we have a really large commitment in general to finding and disabling false accounts," Facebook's chief security officer Joe Sullivan told CNN in a recent interview. "Our entire platform is based on people using their real identities."
I have no doubt that CNN properly reported what they were told by Facebook. I do find it hard to take at face value Facebook's internal assessment of actual users. Maybe that's because their main asset is the volume of users, and the lower that number is the lower the value of Facebook. It may be cynical of me to not believe their numbers, but history has provided a plethora of reasons to be skeptical of corporations who release numbers that could directly impact their finances.
 
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They can't charge a fee because a startling number of people STILL aren't comfortable paying for goods and services online. I'm not sure why they don't start charging for power features such as more storage for photos. But I guarantee you that if they implemented a charge of $5 a year or $20 a year or $100 a year they would be lucky to get 5% of the people to pay for it; the amount charged for is immaterial. Ning tried the "if you look at ads its free, if you want no ads it costs $5/month" and they essentially went out of business.

Enough people think things online should be free. Building a business in the consumer space and charging from the first keystroke is virtually unheard of except for niche businesses. Evernote, Zynga, Dropbox, Flickr...all can be used without spending a penny.

 
People are more than willing to buy goods online. Amazon and Google are having no trouble selling and creating good leads respectively.

Facebook is a party and people don't want to buy stuff at a party. The more you study ecommerce, the more you observed widely varying purchasing behavior based on location.

 
'Statcruncher said:
'Sinn Fein said:
'Clifford said:
Only down $1.28 (6%). I expected worse.

Funny thing is I have an idea that I honestly think could make this a $100 stock in one year, but have no idea how to get it to them.
If it was going ot be worse, the slide would have started before today. I think most folks see this as a ~ $20 stock.What they ought to do, is charge a nominal annual fee for access $10-20/year, and then provide storage space in the cloud for photos, etc.
I honestly don't think they've gone to user fees because they're afraid of exposing how few accounts are legitimate and truly active.
They recently divulged that information. 900million users, about 85million are fake or duplicate accounts. A little under 10%.
Sure they did.
So you don't believe CNN's reporting:83 million Facebook accounts are fakes and dupes - CNN http://bit.ly/N6CXug

83 million Facebook accounts are fakes and dupes

FACEBOOK

August 02, 2012|By Heather Kelly, CNN

Facebook profiles for non-humans, such as companies or pets, violate the social network's terms of service.

If you're using a fake name on your Facebook account, maintaining a personal profile for your beloved pet or have a second profile you use just for logging in to other sites, you have one of the 83.09 million fake accounts Facebook wants to disable.

In an updated regulatory filing released Wednesday, the social media company said that 8.7 percent of its 955 million monthly active users worldwide are actually duplicate or false accounts.

"On Facebook we have a really large commitment in general to finding and disabling false accounts," Facebook's chief security officer Joe Sullivan told CNN in a recent interview. "Our entire platform is based on people using their real identities."
83 Million is extremely conservative estimate. Hell, I have an extra one for when I started playing games (MW,FV, both extremely addictive) as not to annoy my real friends with wall postings. A lot of game players have multiple accounts to gift back and forth. Then some people have a separate account just for stalking. :unsure:
 
'Statcruncher said:
'Sinn Fein said:
'Clifford said:
Only down $1.28 (6%). I expected worse.

Funny thing is I have an idea that I honestly think could make this a $100 stock in one year, but have no idea how to get it to them.
If it was going ot be worse, the slide would have started before today. I think most folks see this as a ~ $20 stock.What they ought to do, is charge a nominal annual fee for access $10-20/year, and then provide storage space in the cloud for photos, etc.
I honestly don't think they've gone to user fees because they're afraid of exposing how few accounts are legitimate and truly active.
They recently divulged that information. 900million users, about 85million are fake or duplicate accounts. A little under 10%.
Sure they did.
So you don't believe CNN's reporting:83 million Facebook accounts are fakes and dupes - CNN http://bit.ly/N6CXug

83 million Facebook accounts are fakes and dupes

FACEBOOK

August 02, 2012|By Heather Kelly, CNN

Facebook profiles for non-humans, such as companies or pets, violate the social network's terms of service.

If you're using a fake name on your Facebook account, maintaining a personal profile for your beloved pet or have a second profile you use just for logging in to other sites, you have one of the 83.09 million fake accounts Facebook wants to disable.

In an updated regulatory filing released Wednesday, the social media company said that 8.7 percent of its 955 million monthly active users worldwide are actually duplicate or false accounts.

"On Facebook we have a really large commitment in general to finding and disabling false accounts," Facebook's chief security officer Joe Sullivan told CNN in a recent interview. "Our entire platform is based on people using their real identities."
83 Million is extremely conservative estimate. Hell, I have an extra one for when I started playing games (MW,FV, both extremely addictive) as not to annoy my real friends with wall postings. A lot of game players have multiple accounts to gift back and forth. Then some people have a separate account just for stalking. :unsure:
While I am generally skeptical of corporate interests, having worked pretty heavily with Facebook API for the last couple years, the numbers seem pretty accurate. Plus I don't see a specific benefit in Facebook misrepresenting the numbers unless they misrepresent them in such a significant fashion that it would be a bombshell if it came out. I just don't see the numbers as being significantly off from what's being reported. They lie about these and Facebook is ruined when (not if) "real" numbers come out.
 
They can't charge a fee because a startling number of people STILL aren't comfortable paying for goods and services online. I'm not sure why they don't start charging for power features such as more storage for photos. But I guarantee you that if they implemented a charge of $5 a year or $20 a year or $100 a year they would be lucky to get 5% of the people to pay for it; the amount charged for is immaterial. Ning tried the "if you look at ads its free, if you want no ads it costs $5/month" and they essentially went out of business. Enough people think things online should be free. Building a business in the consumer space and charging from the first keystroke is virtually unheard of except for niche businesses. Evernote, Zynga, Dropbox, Flickr...all can be used without spending a penny.
they will never charge any fees
 
While I am generally skeptical of corporate interests, having worked pretty heavily with Facebook API for the last couple years, the numbers seem pretty accurate. Plus I don't see a specific benefit in Facebook misrepresenting the numbers unless they misrepresent them in such a significant fashion that it would be a bombshell if it came out. I just don't see the numbers as being significantly off from what's being reported. They lie about these and Facebook is ruined when (not if) "real" numbers come out.
I don't think they are blatant lies - I do suspect they may stretch the truth as to what constitutes an "active" user. I have an account, I'll log-on a dozen times a year. Enough that I am sure I am counted as "active", but I probably spend less than 2 hours per year on the site - and lately, even my posts have come via twitter or instagram. So I am not even going to the site itself.
 
While I am generally skeptical of corporate interests, having worked pretty heavily with Facebook API for the last couple years, the numbers seem pretty accurate. Plus I don't see a specific benefit in Facebook misrepresenting the numbers unless they misrepresent them in such a significant fashion that it would be a bombshell if it came out. I just don't see the numbers as being significantly off from what's being reported. They lie about these and Facebook is ruined when (not if) "real" numbers come out.
I don't think they are blatant lies - I do suspect they may stretch the truth as to what constitutes an "active" user. I have an account, I'll log-on a dozen times a year. Enough that I am sure I am counted as "active", but I probably spend less than 2 hours per year on the site - and lately, even my posts have come via twitter or instagram. So I am not even going to the site itself.
Active users (per Facebook) are users that log in once per month. So I am guessing you count as active assuming your logins are spaced out fairly regularly. You might be counted as active one month and inactive another, but there are enough people doing that that the overall number of active users wouldn't fluctuate too much month to month.
 
So several people I work with have lost their collective ####'s on this stock. Heard them #####ing about it today at lunch. Sad, but I could never imagine why it was valued (by whom?) at 50 billion or whatever insane number it was.

 
Any one in the know, but how many shares have been sold the last couple of days? Was there a "dramatic" sell off, about 50/50 buy/sell or what?

This could work in FaceBook's favor a bit, no? FaceBook has the money from ~$40 a share, only pay out ~$19 a share right now. If people buy it now, they will see revenue go up again. However, with the trending as it is, I don't look to buy for a couple more months... wait till these grace period days end.

 
Any one in the know, but how many shares have been sold the last couple of days? Was there a "dramatic" sell off, about 50/50 buy/sell or what?

This could work in FaceBook's favor a bit, no? FaceBook has the money from ~$40 a share, only pay out ~$19 a share right now. If people buy it now, they will see revenue go up again. However, with the trending as it is, I don't look to buy for a couple more months... wait till these grace period days end.
I agree with this to a point, but a lot of people probably have the same thought. Anyone who believes that the stock will be going up should probably start buying before the last sell-off, as a lot of other people might have the same idea. Start dollar cost averaging the stock now.For future reference:

The lock-up that expired Thursday applied only to early Facebook investors who sold stock in the IPO, not employees, including Zuckerberg himself. Employee lock-up expiration dates will occur three times this fall, in October, November (the big Kahuna, with 1.2 billion shares from insiders becoming unlocked), and December, and then again next May.

Read more: http://business.time...2#ixzz23qT8szM4
 
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Any one in the know, but how many shares have been sold the last couple of days? Was there a "dramatic" sell off, about 50/50 buy/sell or what?

This could work in FaceBook's favor a bit, no? FaceBook has the money from ~$40 a share, only pay out ~$19 a share right now. If people buy it now, they will see revenue go up again. However, with the trending as it is, I don't look to buy for a couple more months... wait till these grace period days end.
I agree with this to a point, but a lot of people probably have the same thought. Anyone who believes that the stock will be going up should probably start buying before the last sell-off, as a lot of other people might have the same idea. Start dollar cost averaging the stock now.For future reference:

The lock-up that expired Thursday applied only to early Facebook investors who sold stock in the IPO, not employees, including Zuckerberg himself. Employee lock-up expiration dates will occur three times this fall, in October, November (the big Kahuna, with 1.2 billion shares from insiders becoming unlocked), and December, and then again next May.

Read more: http://business.time...2#ixzz23qT8szM4
Unless the stock moves up in the coming months, it would not be wise to buy until after The Big Kahuna, correct? If the stock goes down in the coming months, it may not even be worthwhile to sell what those stockholders do have come The Big Kahuna. Will have to wait and see but buying stock from now to October (first sell off) may not be a good idea. Possibly after November or December.

 
Any one in the know, but how many shares have been sold the last couple of days? Was there a "dramatic" sell off, about 50/50 buy/sell or what?

This could work in FaceBook's favor a bit, no? FaceBook has the money from ~$40 a share, only pay out ~$19 a share right now. If people buy it now, they will see revenue go up again. However, with the trending as it is, I don't look to buy for a couple more months... wait till these grace period days end.
I agree with this to a point, but a lot of people probably have the same thought. Anyone who believes that the stock will be going up should probably start buying before the last sell-off, as a lot of other people might have the same idea. Start dollar cost averaging the stock now.For future reference:

The lock-up that expired Thursday applied only to early Facebook investors who sold stock in the IPO, not employees, including Zuckerberg himself. Employee lock-up expiration dates will occur three times this fall, in October, November (the big Kahuna, with 1.2 billion shares from insiders becoming unlocked), and December, and then again next May.

Read more: http://business.time...2#ixzz23qT8szM4
Unless the stock moves up in the coming months, it would not be wise to buy until after The Big Kahuna, correct? If the stock goes down in the coming months, it may not even be worthwhile to sell what those stockholders do have come The Big Kahuna. Will have to wait and see but buying stock from now to October (first sell off) may not be a good idea. Possibly after November or December.
Yah, I'm thinking after the Nov or Dec sell-off, and then if there is a significant boost you might lock in some gains just prior to the final May sell-off. After that, (as I understand it in my limited understanding) the stock should basically react to the market rather than people trying to cash in on the IPO.
 
Couple interesting articles about the Facebook stock. Might change some minds about buying it except as a long term buy & hold.

http://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-stock-outlook-2012-6

My investor friend thinks that we're already in the early stages of Facebook's multiple compression. Over the next several years, he thinks, Facebook's earnings will continue to grow... but Facebook's multiple will continue to compress.

And the end result, he thinks, is that Facebook's stock will be trading around the same level in 5 years as it does today.
http://www.businessinsider.com/dear-facebook-employees-heres-the-truth-about-your-stock-price-2012-8

With this in mind, here's what Facebook employees should understand about their stock price:

[*]The stock crash has nothing to do with the quality of Facebook as a company. The stock is tanking because investors are radically revising (downward) their outlook for Facebook's future financial performance and earnings. The range of "fair values" for Facebook stock is unfortunately extremely wide, and investors are examining Facebook's recent results and concluding that the fair value is much lower than they thought three months ago.*

[*]The market is "re-assessing" Facebook because of three things: 1) the rate at which revenue growth is decelerating, 2) the impact of the shift to mobile, and 3) the decline of the company's profit margin based on the decision to invest more for future growth.

[*]All of those factors suggest that Facebook is unlikely to be "the next Google," which is what many investors assumed it would be when it went public. (This was the investors' fault--not yours).

[*]Facebook's stock price is still expensive relative to the current expected earnings growth for the company. At $20, the stock is trading at 31X next year's projected earnings per share of $0.65. Apple and Google, for comparison, trade at less than 15X. Facebook could easily trade at 20X-30X next year's earnings and still have a nice valuation. So the stock could go considerably lower.

[*]Facebook's stock is not likely to bottom until one or more of three things happen: 1) revenue growth reaccelerates, 2) margins stop declining and start expanding, 3) the stock falls to a level that is objectively "cheap," at which point value investors will start buying it. We're a long way from that level.

[*]The upcoming "lockup" releases will likely keep pressure on the stock--unless the company's revenue growth suddenly accelerates. Lots of you will understandably want to sell some of your stock, and the market already knows that and is adjusting for that. If you all decide not to sell, that will probably help the stock price modestly around the time of the lockup releases. But it won't make a lick of difference over the long term. So if you want to sell, sell. Although it won't feel like you're getting a good price, unless the stock completely collapses from here, you will be getting a fine one.

[*]LinkedIn and Amazon enjoy much higher price-earnings multiples, but there are several reasons for this--none of which suggest that Facebook is undervalued. The main one of these reasons is that both companies have low profit margins that are expected to expand rapidly. This will drive very fast earnings growth. Facebook's margins, meanwhile, are expected to continue to decline, which means that earnings will likely grow more slowly than revenue. (For more analysis of the company's relative stock price, please read this article).

[*]There is absolutely nothing you can do about the stock price in the near term. The stock price is going to do what it is going to do. And, contrary to the assertions of some observers, today's stock price has nothing to do with the NASDAQ screwup on IPO day, a failure of your managers to aggressively "market" the stock, or any other factors. Your CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, was very clear in the IPO prospectus about your desire to focus on long-term product development at the expense of the near-term financial performance. That is very admirable and wise. Too many American companies ruin themselves by managing their businesses for the near-term stock price. But unfortunately it means that, in the near-term, your stock price is going to take it in the teeth.

[*]Most of the stocks of growth companies go through the painful transition that yours is going through: The transition is from "hyper-growth" to long-term growth. Hyper-growth gets extremely high stock valuations. Long-term growth does not. And the transition between the two can keep stocks trading sideways for many, many years. (Read this post for more on this process. It lays out what the smartest investor I know thinks your stock is going to do.)

[*]The company whose long-term stock action you should study is Amazon's (see the chart below). Amazon's stock, you will note, went straight up for three years, just like yours. Then it crashed, recovered a bit, and then traded sideways for about 5-7 years. Then, eventually, when Amazon's obsessive (and admirable and rare) focus on customers instead of quarterly financial performance finally established it as a global ecommerce juggernaut, the stock price recovered all of its losses and began hitting new highs. This is what happens when companies focus on the long term. Their stocks go through fallow periods that last many, many years. But, eventually, if they execute on their vision, the stock follows through. (Also, it is important to note that you went public at the peak of the stock price. Most of the "rocket ride" happened when you were a private company.)
 
Any one in the know, but how many shares have been sold the last couple of days? Was there a "dramatic" sell off, about 50/50 buy/sell or what?
Don't have the exact numbers in front of me, but I believe exactly 50% of the orders were for buys and 50% for sells.
 
I'm a buyer at $7 for sure, if it gets there. I might start dipping my toe in when it hits $12 and buy larger amounts if it continues to fall.

 
"At the heart of the Internet business is one of the great business fallacies of our time: that the Web, with all its targeting abilities, can be a more efficient, and hence more profitable, advertising medium than traditional media."BINGO!AdBlock Plus for me.Advertising is easy to avoid on the internets. Nearly the only place that pays to spend money on the internet is in Google placement.
 
'Topes said:
'Maurile Tremblay said:
"At the heart of the Internet business is one of the great business fallacies of our time: that the Web, with all its targeting abilities, can be a more efficient, and hence more profitable, advertising medium than traditional media."BINGO!AdBlock Plus for me.Advertising is easy to avoid on the internets. Nearly the only place that pays to spend money on the internet is in Google placement.
agree totally.
 
Does this mean facebook is in danger of going out of business?
Not a chance. Facebook got exactly what they wanted out of the IPO, and the stock price really doesn't matter to them one way or another. Zuckerberg has a very long view of where he wants to take the company, and owns 57% of the voting shares, on purpose, so he doesn't have to listen to "whiny short-term public shareholders."
Zuckerberg:

Before I begin, let me remind you that I own 57% of the voting stock of Facebook, which means I have complete control over it. I organized the company this way many years ago, with the very deliberate intention of maintaining complete control over it. I did this so I wouldn't get overruled and canned by venture capitalists, a fate that unfortunately befalls many entrepreneurs. I also did it so in the event that we ever had to go public—which we unfortunately have to do now—I would never have to pay attention to whiny short-term public shareholders. Those whiny short-term public shareholders have destroyed many great companies by making management obsess about absurd near-term financial targets. I have made sure that that's never going to happen to Facebook. If there ever comes a day when you and I disagree about the future direction of the company, rest assured: Your choice will be my way or the highway.
But as far as money goes, they are in no real danger of going out of business though. From early in 2011:
Based on the growth in revenue and in the bottom line, Facebook could stand to pull in close to $1 billion in profit this year.
 
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Does this mean facebook is in danger of going out of business?
No way. The stock price has plummeted since the IPO, but that's because it was priced too high then. As a result of being priced so high, however, it raised about $16 billion in cash. The people who put their cash into it may not be happy right now, but the company itself is flush.
 
When or are people going to jump in? At $18 right now.
Not jumping in at all, but lets face it, this is where ipo should have been issued. Lots of people calling for it to go lower, waiting for 10-12 seems smart. I still wouldn't be surprised to see this be its low as well. We'll see if support comes in, or if the bottom drops. My guess is also that if it drops to 15-16, it will see 10-12 before it hits 20+ again. Watch the charts and trends.
 
Does this mean facebook is in danger of going out of business?
No way. The stock price has plummeted since the IPO, but that's because it was priced too high then. As a result of being priced so high, however, it raised about $16 billion in cash. The people who put their cash into it may not be happy right now, but the company itself is flush.
That sounds like something was going on behind closed doors. Why would it be priced more than double its value, while ownership knew it was nowhere near that much?
 
I am buying Facebook at this level. They have nearly a billion users. At these prices, the company is valued at just 38 Billion yet they have a hoard of cash. They own Instagram. And now they are rolling out a genius idea of targeted ads that allow advertisers to state they want these shown to men over 40, that like sports, etc.

It's a no-brainer that this company will figure out a way to make money. And it's not like they aren't adding tons of accounts everyday. Once everyone gets massive amount of pictures / timeline posts on their accounts, they aren't going anywhere. Facebook could charge $12 a year for unlimited timeline and pictures and 10% of their users are going to pay that. The fact that a couple of "analysts" changed their outlooks even lower gives me even more reason to buy.

Here is the article that talks to their targeted ads:

http://usastockreport.com/facebook-fb-launched-latest-trait-targeted-page-posts-started-earning-profit-mob-apps/859471/

I bet this stock returns 50% over the next two years from this level.

 

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