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Reprise your rookie rankings (1 Viewer)

vandelyons

Footballguy
Knowing what you know now, what does your rookie 12 look like?

1.01 - Eddie Lacy - As a Packer fan, I've watched his camp closely and am excited about his future. As an owner of 1.01 he has shown me enough to hold down the top spot. Barely.

1.02 - Giovanni Bernard - Most knew he would eclipse BJGE. Has looked explosive, with soft hands out of the backfield. Wouldn't blame anyone for taking him over Lacy.

1.03 - Christine Michael - Patient owners should be tempted to put him at 1.01.

1.04 - Tavon Austin - While Austin is a bit of a head scratcher, I believe the Rams will target him often. Plus, the other RBs have too many question marks.

1.05 - Tyler Eifert - Some Jimmy Graham qualities here...and one of the NFL's and coming offenses. Bernard and Green should draw lots of attention away from Eifert.

1.06 - Le'Veon Bell - Bell's inability to avoid injury should be a major cause for concern. But the latest injury isn't as serious as originally thought. The Steelers seem to believe in him

1.07 - Montee Ball - Oof. I had him at 1.01 early. But is he that special? I'm a Badger fan and like Melvin Gordon a lot more.

1.08 - Cordarrelle Patterson - Dynamic playmaker with a lot of upside.

1.09 - Kenbrell Tompkins - Why not roll dice.

1.10 - DeAndre Hopkins - Looks like the WR2 in one of the better offenses in the NFL.

1.11 - EJ Manual

1.12 - Keenan Allen

 
I play in leagues with different setups... From leagues that award KR/PR yardage (Austin 1.1), to 2QB leagues, (Manuel top 4), to standard leagues... But since the majority are playing in standard/ppr leagues...

1.01-Eddie Lacy, he's been my RB1 all along, he's not going to split time as much as people think. The fact he's played in the shotgun with Aaron Rodgers is telling enough. His pass pro is already there. He's going to get 250+ touches with ease. He's rarely seeing stacked boxes, he'll be in the redzone frequently.

1.02-Tavon Austin. I'm not going to panic over a lack of targets. He looked electric this weekend returning the ball, and will see a ton of targets from the slot.

1.03- Gio Bernard. Good offense in need of someone to pick up the slack.

1.04- Cordarrelle Patterson--I don't expect Christian Ponder to be throwing the ball this team next year. Best talent left on the board.

1.05- DeAndre Hopkins-- The only thing that worries me is Matt Schaub and his ability to spare it up consistently.

1.06- Christine Michael-- I think we'll see a 70/30 split this year Lynch's way. 50/50 next year. If healthy and his head is on straight... Yikes.

1.07- EJ Manuel-- He has a rocket arm, ability to move, and a HC/OC that can build him up into a monster.

1.08- Kenbrell Thompkins-- He's seemingly passed up all the other rookies on his roster. Brady is throwing to him. Yes please.

1.09- Markus Wheaton-- Mike Wallace skillset filling Mike Wallace's spot.

1.10- Montee Ball-- I was never too high on Ball, if he can figure out his pass pro, he's a starter. If not, he's rarely seeing time.

1.11- Robert Woods-- Most forgot what he was early on in his USC career. I haven't, and think the Marrone offense will open up nicely in year two.

1.12- Travis Kelce-- I like his game more than Eifert. Reid's offense is going to produce more targets for him. Top 10 TE in 2014.

 
I play in leagues with different setups... From leagues that award KR/PR yardage (Austin 1.1), to 2QB leagues, (Manuel top 4), to standard leagues... But since the majority are playing in standard/ppr leagues...

1.01-Eddie Lacy, he's been my RB1 all along, he's not going to split time as much as people think. The fact he's played in the shotgun with Aaron Rodgers is telling enough. His pass pro is already there. He's going to get 250+ touches with ease. He's rarely seeing stacked boxes, he'll be in the redzone frequently.

1.02-Tavon Austin. I'm not going to panic over a lack of targets. He looked electric this weekend returning the ball, and will see a ton of targets from the slot.

1.03- Gio Bernard. Good offense in need of someone to pick up the slack.

1.04- Cordarrelle Patterson--I don't expect Christian Ponder to be throwing the ball this team next year. Best talent left on the board.

1.05- DeAndre Hopkins-- The only thing that worries me is Matt Schaub and his ability to spare it up consistently.

1.06- Christine Michael-- I think we'll see a 70/30 split this year Lynch's way. 50/50 next year. If healthy and his head is on straight... Yikes.

1.07- EJ Manuel-- He has a rocket arm, ability to move, and a HC/OC that can build him up into a monster.

1.08- Kenbrell Thompkins-- He's seemingly passed up all the other rookies on his roster. Brady is throwing to him. Yes please.

1.09- Markus Wheaton-- Mike Wallace skillset filling Mike Wallace's spot.

1.10- Montee Ball-- I was never too high on Ball, if he can figure out his pass pro, he's a starter. If not, he's rarely seeing time.

1.11- Robert Woods-- Most forgot what he was early on in his USC career. I haven't, and think the Marrone offense will open up nicely in year two.

1.12- Travis Kelce-- I like his game more than Eifert. Reid's offense is going to produce more targets for him. Top 10 TE in 2014.
This looks good - I would probably move Hopkins ahead of Patterson though.

 
I play in leagues with different setups... From leagues that award KR/PR yardage (Austin 1.1), to 2QB leagues, (Manuel top 4), to standard leagues... But since the majority are playing in standard/ppr leagues...

1.01-Eddie Lacy, he's been my RB1 all along, he's not going to split time as much as people think. The fact he's played in the shotgun with Aaron Rodgers is telling enough. His pass pro is already there. He's going to get 250+ touches with ease. He's rarely seeing stacked boxes, he'll be in the redzone frequently.

1.02-Tavon Austin. I'm not going to panic over a lack of targets. He looked electric this weekend returning the ball, and will see a ton of targets from the slot.

1.03- Gio Bernard. Good offense in need of someone to pick up the slack.

1.04- Cordarrelle Patterson--I don't expect Christian Ponder to be throwing the ball this team next year. Best talent left on the board.

1.05- DeAndre Hopkins-- The only thing that worries me is Matt Schaub and his ability to spare it up consistently.

1.06- Christine Michael-- I think we'll see a 70/30 split this year Lynch's way. 50/50 next year. If healthy and his head is on straight... Yikes.

1.07- EJ Manuel-- He has a rocket arm, ability to move, and a HC/OC that can build him up into a monster.

1.08- Kenbrell Thompkins-- He's seemingly passed up all the other rookies on his roster. Brady is throwing to him. Yes please.

1.09- Markus Wheaton-- Mike Wallace skillset filling Mike Wallace's spot.

1.10- Montee Ball-- I was never too high on Ball, if he can figure out his pass pro, he's a starter. If not, he's rarely seeing time.

1.11- Robert Woods-- Most forgot what he was early on in his USC career. I haven't, and think the Marrone offense will open up nicely in year two.

1.12- Travis Kelce-- I like his game more than Eifert. Reid's offense is going to produce more targets for him. Top 10 TE in 2014.
This looks good - I would probably move Hopkins ahead of Patterson though.
Yeah, I think Hopkins and Patterson could be switched. Just prefer Patterson's upside more than Hopkins. I'll also mention that I didn't have Le'Veon Bell in my first round prior to his injury. I know plenty of people think I'm crazy, but I see Daniel Thomas all over again.

 
Good topic. I try not to get swayed too much by the rookie training camp, as lots of great players don't hit the ground running, but there have been some changes in my thinking.

My top four today would be Michael, Eifert, Gio, and Austin in some order. I felt reasonably good about the first three prior to the preseason and they've generated good buzz since then. I don't have a strong read on Tavon, but he belongs in the group on the basis of his draft position.

My next cluster would be Patterson, Hopkins, Hunter, and Lacy in some order. I don't feel as good about this quartet, but there's enough there to take a gamble in the 5-8 range.

After that I'd probably be looking at Manuel, Wheaton, Ball, Bell (yuck), and maybe Thompkins. No change on Allen or Woods. Minor downtick for Josh Boyce and slightly bigger drop for Chris Harper. I had Stacy and Franklin rated as 3rd rounders all along and neither has done anything to change my mind.

Beyond that, I think I'd move some of the TEs up. Vance McDonald and Luke Willson have good measurables and have shown flashes this preseason. Tough to peg a solid TE2 behind Eifert, but those guys have to be in the mix with Ertz, Kelce, and Escobar.

I remain down on Dobson, T Williams, Goodwin, and Bailey. Not a fan of those guys. Same with Gillislee and Randle. I liked Stepfan Taylor as a late 3rd-4th round gamble, but he's not showing anything in the games.

 
I play in leagues with different setups... From leagues that award KR/PR yardage (Austin 1.1), to 2QB leagues, (Manuel top 4), to standard leagues... But since the majority are playing in standard/ppr leagues...

1.01-Eddie Lacy, he's been my RB1 all along, he's not going to split time as much as people think. The fact he's played in the shotgun with Aaron Rodgers is telling enough. His pass pro is already there. He's going to get 250+ touches with ease. He's rarely seeing stacked boxes, he'll be in the redzone frequently.

1.02-Tavon Austin. I'm not going to panic over a lack of targets. He looked electric this weekend returning the ball, and will see a ton of targets from the slot.

1.03- Gio Bernard. Good offense in need of someone to pick up the slack.

1.04- Cordarrelle Patterson--I don't expect Christian Ponder to be throwing the ball this team next year. Best talent left on the board.

1.05- DeAndre Hopkins-- The only thing that worries me is Matt Schaub and his ability to spare it up consistently.

1.06- Christine Michael-- I think we'll see a 70/30 split this year Lynch's way. 50/50 next year. If healthy and his head is on straight... Yikes.

1.07- EJ Manuel-- He has a rocket arm, ability to move, and a HC/OC that can build him up into a monster.

1.08- Kenbrell Thompkins-- He's seemingly passed up all the other rookies on his roster. Brady is throwing to him. Yes please.

1.09- Markus Wheaton-- Mike Wallace skillset filling Mike Wallace's spot.

1.10- Montee Ball-- I was never too high on Ball, if he can figure out his pass pro, he's a starter. If not, he's rarely seeing time.

1.11- Robert Woods-- Most forgot what he was early on in his USC career. I haven't, and think the Marrone offense will open up nicely in year two.

1.12- Travis Kelce-- I like his game more than Eifert. Reid's offense is going to produce more targets for him. Top 10 TE in 2014.
I like most if not all of this list... really, it's fairly close to my original Top 12 going into my dynasty drafts back in May. The main difference being that I had Lacy at 1.05 and then move everyone under him up a slot and obviously no Thompkins. He wasn't 1.01 at the time for a few reasons. About 10% of it was the injury concerns the other 90% of it was the uncertainty and hype around Franklin. Now that's in the past... if I could rewind back to my 1.05 pick where Lacy was sitting there in my one draft, I would have probably snagged him instead of Patterson. At the time Patterson just seemed like the better pick though.

 
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I play in leagues with different setups... From leagues that award KR/PR yardage (Austin 1.1), to 2QB leagues, (Manuel top 4), to standard leagues... But since the majority are playing in standard/ppr leagues...

1.01-Eddie Lacy, he's been my RB1 all along, he's not going to split time as much as people think. The fact he's played in the shotgun with Aaron Rodgers is telling enough. His pass pro is already there. He's going to get 250+ touches with ease. He's rarely seeing stacked boxes, he'll be in the redzone frequently.

1.02-Tavon Austin. I'm not going to panic over a lack of targets. He looked electric this weekend returning the ball, and will see a ton of targets from the slot.

1.03- Gio Bernard. Good offense in need of someone to pick up the slack.

1.04- Cordarrelle Patterson--I don't expect Christian Ponder to be throwing the ball this team next year. Best talent left on the board.

1.05- DeAndre Hopkins-- The only thing that worries me is Matt Schaub and his ability to spare it up consistently.

1.06- Christine Michael-- I think we'll see a 70/30 split this year Lynch's way. 50/50 next year. If healthy and his head is on straight... Yikes.

1.07- EJ Manuel-- He has a rocket arm, ability to move, and a HC/OC that can build him up into a monster.

1.08- Kenbrell Thompkins-- He's seemingly passed up all the other rookies on his roster. Brady is throwing to him. Yes please.

1.09- Markus Wheaton-- Mike Wallace skillset filling Mike Wallace's spot.

1.10- Montee Ball-- I was never too high on Ball, if he can figure out his pass pro, he's a starter. If not, he's rarely seeing time.

1.11- Robert Woods-- Most forgot what he was early on in his USC career. I haven't, and think the Marrone offense will open up nicely in year two.

1.12- Travis Kelce-- I like his game more than Eifert. Reid's offense is going to produce more targets for him. Top 10 TE in 2014.
So you would not have Le'Veon Bell in the 1st round? Besides a relatively minor injury, all he did was go out and pretty convincingly win the starting RB job (3 down back as he is very good in passing game).

Personally, Bell is in my top 5.

 
I play in leagues with different setups... From leagues that award KR/PR yardage (Austin 1.1), to 2QB leagues, (Manuel top 4), to standard leagues... But since the majority are playing in standard/ppr leagues...

1.01-Eddie Lacy, he's been my RB1 all along, he's not going to split time as much as people think. The fact he's played in the shotgun with Aaron Rodgers is telling enough. His pass pro is already there. He's going to get 250+ touches with ease. He's rarely seeing stacked boxes, he'll be in the redzone frequently.

1.02-Tavon Austin. I'm not going to panic over a lack of targets. He looked electric this weekend returning the ball, and will see a ton of targets from the slot.

1.03- Gio Bernard. Good offense in need of someone to pick up the slack.

1.04- Cordarrelle Patterson--I don't expect Christian Ponder to be throwing the ball this team next year. Best talent left on the board.

1.05- DeAndre Hopkins-- The only thing that worries me is Matt Schaub and his ability to spare it up consistently.

1.06- Christine Michael-- I think we'll see a 70/30 split this year Lynch's way. 50/50 next year. If healthy and his head is on straight... Yikes.

1.07- EJ Manuel-- He has a rocket arm, ability to move, and a HC/OC that can build him up into a monster.

1.08- Kenbrell Thompkins-- He's seemingly passed up all the other rookies on his roster. Brady is throwing to him. Yes please.

1.09- Markus Wheaton-- Mike Wallace skillset filling Mike Wallace's spot.

1.10- Montee Ball-- I was never too high on Ball, if he can figure out his pass pro, he's a starter. If not, he's rarely seeing time.

1.11- Robert Woods-- Most forgot what he was early on in his USC career. I haven't, and think the Marrone offense will open up nicely in year two.

1.12- Travis Kelce-- I like his game more than Eifert. Reid's offense is going to produce more targets for him. Top 10 TE in 2014.
So you would not have Le'Veon Bell in the 1st round? Besides a relatively minor injury, all he did was go out and pretty convincingly win the starting RB job (3 down back as he is very good in passing game).

Personally, Bell is in my top 5.
:goodposting: Seems like even some dynasty owners can't bring themselves to think past the first half of the season. Before the injury most had him in the 5-7 range...if not higher.

 
Yes, is it redraft or dynasty?

Redraft, I agree with, dynasty... well some people have believed too much hype and forgot about players.

 
There are numerous people down on Bell. I am surprised so many have a low outlook for his prospects. He is a productive college back on a team that has made it clear that they want him to be the main back. Yes he has had some minor injuries in his first rookie preseason, but nothing to indicate be is damaged goods. He just turned 21 years old in February. So while he has been utilized a lot at MSU, he is far from old and worn. I see the glass as half full.

 
Reprise these in a year and I bet half the names are different. Where is Lattimore, Dobson, Bailey if this is any type of long range process?

I know this is a "what have you done for me in the last 5 minutes" type of exercise but there are some players that should be considered not making the list.

I bet the people that grabbed Michael in the 2nd round of their rookie drafts are feeling like they got value right now.

 
Reprise these in a year and I bet half the names are different. Where is Lattimore, Dobson, Bailey if this is any type of long range process?

I know this is a "what have you done for me in the last 5 minutes" type of exercise but there are some players that should be considered not making the list.

I bet the people that grabbed Michael in the 2nd round of their rookie drafts are feeling like they got value right now.
:goodposting: Isn't pretty much everything like that these days? It's almost insane how frenetic opinions have become in the digital age.

 
Reprise these in a year and I bet half the names are different. Where is Lattimore, Dobson, Bailey if this is any type of long range process?

I know this is a "what have you done for me in the last 5 minutes" type of exercise but there are some players that should be considered not making the list.

I bet the people that grabbed Michael in the 2nd round of their rookie drafts are feeling like they got value right now.
I feel like Lattimore has a lot of question marks that make him tough to draft in the first round of a rookie draft. We have no guarantee he'll be half the player he was prior to his catastrophic injury. As for Dobson he was a late first round pick to begin with... now that Thompkins has clearly over taken him and Boyce is neck and neck with him it's hard to not drop him out of the first round completely. Also Bailey wasn't a first round pick coming into dynasty drafts, has he done something I'm not hearing about to make him a first round pick now?

As for say Le'Veon Bell, he should be a first round pick... it's tough to say where though. I don't think he should be Top 5... probably near the tail end of the first round. You can't just ignore the fact that he hasn't been healthy since he was drafted. He's had small nagging injuries all offseason and now he won't play till later in the season.

 
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Reprise these in a year and I bet half the names are different. Where is Lattimore, Dobson, Bailey if this is any type of long range process?

I know this is a "what have you done for me in the last 5 minutes" type of exercise but there are some players that should be considered not making the list.

I bet the people that grabbed Michael in the 2nd round of their rookie drafts are feeling like they got value right now.
I feel like Lattimore has a lot of question marks that make him tough to draft in the first round of a rookie draft. We have no guarantee he'll be half the player he was prior to his catastrophic injury. As for Dobson he was a late first round pick to begin with... now that Thompkins has clearly over taken him and Boyce is neck and neck with him it's hard to not drop him out of the first round completely. Also Bailey wasn't a first round pick coming into dynasty drafts, has he done something I'm not hearing about to make him a first round pick now?

As for say Le'Veon Bell, he should be a first round pick... it's tough to say where though. I don't think he should be Top 5... probably near the tail end of the first round. You can't just ignore the fact that he hasn't been healthy since he was drafted. He's had small nagging injuries all offseason and now he won't play till later in the season.
Yeah, I was just mentioning names I noticed more than asking about them specifically. I was really just making more of a point that I'm pretty sure this will change a lot and we (we all do this) tend to over react to recency.

I DO like all three of those guys I mentioned long term and expect to see them talked about favorably in the future but, as of today, I can't argue with the original list.

 
Reprise these in a year and I bet half the names are different. Where is Lattimore, Dobson, Bailey if this is any type of long range process?

I know this is a "what have you done for me in the last 5 minutes" type of exercise but there are some players that should be considered not making the list.

I bet the people that grabbed Michael in the 2nd round of their rookie drafts are feeling like they got value right now.
I feel like Lattimore has a lot of question marks that make him tough to draft in the first round of a rookie draft. We have no guarantee he'll be half the player he was prior to his catastrophic injury. As for Dobson he was a late first round pick to begin with... now that Thompkins has clearly over taken him and Boyce is neck and neck with him it's hard to not drop him out of the first round completely. Also Bailey wasn't a first round pick coming into dynasty drafts, has he done something I'm not hearing about to make him a first round pick now?

As for say Le'Veon Bell, he should be a first round pick... it's tough to say where though. I don't think he should be Top 5... probably near the tail end of the first round. You can't just ignore the fact that he hasn't been healthy since he was drafted. He's had small nagging injuries all offseason and now he won't play till later in the season.
Yeah, I was just mentioning names I noticed more than asking about them specifically. I was really just making more of a point that I'm pretty sure this will change a lot and we (we all do this) tend to over react to recency.

I DO like all three of those guys I mentioned long term and expect to see them talked about favorably in the future but, as of today, I can't argue with the original list.
I think the biggest issue I see with all of these lists is the inclusion of Thompkins in the First Round. I don't really agree with him being included in the first round personally... we're getting a little ahead of ourselves here. It's not like last season when Wilson moved from say 1.10 to 1.03 from the hype. He's literally moved from undrafted in most dynasty leagues to a first round pick on some of these and yet to play a single regular season down. I like the guys prospects a LOT but he's a early-mid second round pick imo.

 
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I think the biggest issue I see with all of these lists is the inclusion of Thompkins in the First Round. I don't really agree with him being included in the first round personally... we're getting a little ahead of ourselves here. It's not like last season when Wilson moved from say 1.10 to 1.03 from the hype. He's literally moved from undrafted in most dynasty leagues to a first round pick on some of these and yet to play a single regular season down. I like the guys prospects a LOT but he's a early-mid second round pick imo.
None of the other rookies have lit it up like Thompkins. I have him squarely in the middle of the first round.

 
I think the biggest issue I see with all of these lists is the inclusion of Thompkins in the First Round. I don't really agree with him being included in the first round personally... we're getting a little ahead of ourselves here. It's not like last season when Wilson moved from say 1.10 to 1.03 from the hype. He's literally moved from undrafted in most dynasty leagues to a first round pick on some of these and yet to play a single regular season down. I like the guys prospects a LOT but he's a early-mid second round pick imo.
Not yet playing a regular season down applies to all the rookies. Some people at this time last year were paying attention to Alfred Morris. He was a 6th round draft pick at the bottom of the depth chart, but he was having a great preseason, and getting opportunities with the first team. We know how that played out in the regular season don't we?

 
Reprise these in a year and I bet half the names are different. Where is Lattimore, Dobson, Bailey if this is any type of long range process?

I know this is a "what have you done for me in the last 5 minutes" type of exercise but there are some players that should be considered not making the list.

I bet the people that grabbed Michael in the 2nd round of their rookie drafts are feeling like they got value right now.
I feel like Lattimore has a lot of question marks that make him tough to draft in the first round of a rookie draft. We have no guarantee he'll be half the player he was prior to his catastrophic injury. As for Dobson he was a late first round pick to begin with... now that Thompkins has clearly over taken him and Boyce is neck and neck with him it's hard to not drop him out of the first round completely. Also Bailey wasn't a first round pick coming into dynasty drafts, has he done something I'm not hearing about to make him a first round pick now?

As for say Le'Veon Bell, he should be a first round pick... it's tough to say where though. I don't think he should be Top 5... probably near the tail end of the first round. You can't just ignore the fact that he hasn't been healthy since he was drafted. He's had small nagging injuries all offseason and now he won't play till later in the season.
Reprise these in a year and I bet half the names are different. Where is Lattimore, Dobson, Bailey if this is any type of long range process?

I know this is a "what have you done for me in the last 5 minutes" type of exercise but there are some players that should be considered not making the list.

I bet the people that grabbed Michael in the 2nd round of their rookie drafts are feeling like they got value right now.
I feel like Lattimore has a lot of question marks that make him tough to draft in the first round of a rookie draft. We have no guarantee he'll be half the player he was prior to his catastrophic injury. As for Dobson he was a late first round pick to begin with... now that Thompkins has clearly over taken him and Boyce is neck and neck with him it's hard to not drop him out of the first round completely. Also Bailey wasn't a first round pick coming into dynasty drafts, has he done something I'm not hearing about to make him a first round pick now?

As for say Le'Veon Bell, he should be a first round pick... it's tough to say where though. I don't think he should be Top 5... probably near the tail end of the first round. You can't just ignore the fact that he hasn't been healthy since he was drafted. He's had small nagging injuries all offseason and now he won't play till later in the season.
I grabbed Lattimore at the end of the first. Undoubtedly, there are some serious questions about him, but given Lattimore's tremendous upside, I think he still warrants consideration as a late first rounder.

While I am at it, another player I am higher on than most is Justin Hunter, albeit not in the first round. Hunter is rail thin and will struggle against physical corners, but his skills are off the charts. Hunter has good athleticism, reliable hands, he is an intelligent route runner, and he really knows how to high-point the ball and beat shorter defenders. If Hunter adds some bulk over the next year, which I expect he will, and he gains back the speed and explosiveness he had prior to his 2011 knee injury, he could be an elite receiver. Patient Dynasty owners may want to target Hunter in the 2nd round.

 
The hate against Montee Ball has gone waaaay too far.

In that offense, double-digit TDs is easily obtainable. I think this time next year, people will be talking about him as a top-ten back

 
We had our dynasty league rookie draft and free agent auction on Sunday. Below are the results of the draft. Note: These are PPR.

  1. Gio Bernard
  2. Eddie Lacy
  3. Tavon Austin
  4. Christine Michael
  5. DeAndre Hopkins
  6. Montee Ball
  7. Le'Veon Bell
  8. Kenbrell Thompkins
  9. Tyler Eifert
  10. Cordarrelle Patterson
  11. Robert Woods
  12. Keenan Allen
The next five picks were EJ Manuel, Marcus Lattimore, Markus Wheaton, Knile Davis and Justin Hunter.

These second rounder are highly valuable picks in our league since rookies after the 1st round can be put on a practice squad for up to two years before their contract starts (contract goes to year 1 when activated). So, QBs/WRs/TEs who need an extra year to develop are high in demand at 2.01 and on.

Obviously, Bell's injury changed the top of the draft order. Prior to that, he probably would've gone #1 with Bernard/Lacy the next two picks. Bell's injury brought Austin back into the top 3, Michael's rise has been steady and for obvious reasons, and Hopkins and Bell could go anywhere from #2 to #6.

Thompkins shot up into the first round as expected. Interestingly, Sudfeld only went at 2.11.

I had Eifert ranked a bit higher than where he went. I'd take him comfortably in the top 5.

I was surprised to see Woods/Allen go ahead of Wheaton, who I nabbed at 2.03. They both should see more snaps earlier in the year, but I still like Wheaton's upside more than those two.

 
We had our dynasty league rookie draft and free agent auction on Sunday. Below are the results of the draft. Note: These are PPR.

  • Gio Bernard
  • Eddie Lacy
  • Tavon Austin
  • Christine Michael
  • DeAndre Hopkins
  • Montee Ball
  • Le'Veon Bell
  • Kenbrell Thompkins
  • Tyler Eifert
  • Cordarrelle Patterson
  • Robert Woods
  • Keenan Allen
The next five picks were EJ Manuel, Marcus Lattimore, Markus Wheaton, Knile Davis and Justin Hunter.These second rounder are highly valuable picks in our league since rookies after the 1st round can be put on a practice squad for up to two years before their contract starts (contract goes to year 1 when activated). So, QBs/WRs/TEs who need an extra year to develop are high in demand at 2.01 and on.

Obviously, Bell's injury changed the top of the draft order. Prior to that, he probably would've gone #1 with Bernard/Lacy the next two picks. Bell's injury brought Austin back into the top 3, Michael's rise has been steady and for obvious reasons, and Hopkins and Bell could go anywhere from #2 to #6.

Thompkins shot up into the first round as expected. Interestingly, Sudfeld only went at 2.11.

I had Eifert ranked a bit higher than where he went. I'd take him comfortably in the top 5.

I was surprised to see Woods/Allen go ahead of Wheaton, who I nabbed at 2.03. They both should see more snaps earlier in the year, but I still like Wheaton's upside more than those two.
Interesting that people are dropping Bell down their dynasty rookie rankings so early after what looks to be a foot sprain suffered in his first preseason.

 
Interesting to see Michael so high there. I took him at #4 and #5 in my last two drafts after getting him at #10 to #15 all summer, but figured I was reaching.

 
My top 12, std scoring, non-PPR

1 - Bernard

2 - Lacy

3 - Michael

4 - Patterson

5 - Bell

6 - Austin

7 - Hopkins

8 - Wheaton

9 - Kelce

10 - Allen

11 - Eifert

12 - Lattimore

In my Dynasty league, I have a deal of moving back from 1.03 to 1.07 and pick up an extra 1st round next year to get Christine Michael... You make me feel I'll lose him. The other owner badly wants Tavon Austin at 1.03.

1.04 will probably look into Bell or Ball

1.05 probably will take Hopkins, Bell or Ball or a complete wildcard

1.06 looks locked in Patterson. I hope he's not bluffing.

Anyways... I'll be screwed if Michael and Patterson are gone at 1.07... the 2 guys I'd have taken at 1.03 had I kept my pick.

I'll keep you posted on how it shakes out.

 
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I have a deal of moving back from 1.03 to 1.07 and pick up an extra 1st round next year to get Christine Michael... You make me feel I'll lose him. The other owner badly wants Tavon Austin at 1.03.

1.04 will probably look into Bell or Ball

1.05 probably will take Hopkins, Bell or Ball or a complete wildcard

1.06 looks locked in Patterson. I hope he's not bluffing.

Anyways... I'll be screwed if Michael and Patterson are gone at 1.07... the 2 guys I'd have taken at 1.03 had I kept my pick.
Hold that 1.03 until you know Lacy and Gio are off the board. I am in one dynasty league and the draft is going on right now. 1.01 took Bell (he is in rebuild mode so not concerned with this year).

 
#1 told me that he wants Gio (80%) or Austin (20%).

Funny thing is 1.06 sent me an e-mail while I was typing to inquire for 1.03.

I basically asked him: who you gonna pick? and said Bell or Ball. He wants an RB. I'll try to make him trade to 1.04 or 1.05.

Note : I'm keeping this in this Forum as I think this is general information that could be useful for you guys.

 
I think the biggest issue I see with all of these lists is the inclusion of Thompkins in the First Round. I don't really agree with him being included in the first round personally... we're getting a little ahead of ourselves here. It's not like last season when Wilson moved from say 1.10 to 1.03 from the hype. He's literally moved from undrafted in most dynasty leagues to a first round pick on some of these and yet to play a single regular season down. I like the guys prospects a LOT but he's a early-mid second round pick imo.
None of the other rookies have lit it up like Thompkins. I have him squarely in the middle of the first round.
Related but not related:

I remember several years ago when Laurence Maroney de his New England pre-season debut. He was already a highly drafted Rookie Rb but when people saw him in pre-season, his value skyrocketed. He looked like he was going to be a beast...sorry..Vandal (or whatever word we are using today). But New England being New England, once the bullets started flying for real, they had their own way of doing things and they didn't commit to the rookie as we thought they might and then, before you knew it, he wasn't really much of anything.

What I take from that more than anything is, with New England, we truly do not know what they are going to do or how they are going to do it. A player that performs for them is different than most teams. Instead of it being a player that gets locked into, New England is MUCH more willing toplay matchups and shift their philosophy from week to week. So, beyond Brady and Ridley and Gronk when he returns, I think the rest of the cast is up and down.

 
Rookie draft in 3 yr contract league on Saturday:

1. Lacy

2. Ball

3. Bell

4 Giovani

5 Tavon

6 Patterson

**7 Hopkins

8 Dobson

**9 Michael

10 Sudfeld

...

**17 Thompkins

I was going to go Michael/Thompkins at 7/9 but Hopkins fell to me. Just traded away a 2014 1st Rd Rookie pick for Thompkins.

3 year contracts so I valued Thompkins since I think he'll play right away. Plus need receiver help since Harvin down.

 
Interesting to see Michael so high there. I took him at #4 and #5 in my last two drafts after getting him at #10 to #15 all summer, but figured I was reaching.
What is the thought of Michael so high? Is the assumption that he will take over for Lynch in 1-2 years, ahead of Turbin? Just seems like a huge jump based solely on a couple of preseason games (vs. #2 defenses?)

 
Interesting to see Michael so high there. I took him at #4 and #5 in my last two drafts after getting him at #10 to #15 all summer, but figured I was reaching.
What is the thought of Michael so high? Is the assumption that he will take over for Lynch in 1-2 years, ahead of Turbin? Just seems like a huge jump based solely on a couple of preseason games (vs. #2 defenses?)
I think it is a combination of several factors: First, he was seen as one of the premiere talents long before he flashed in preseason. If Michael can stay focused and out of trouble, his ceiling is higher than perhaps any other back in this draft. Second, the possibility of playing in one of the premiere offenses sweetens the pot. Lynch's contract and legal woes could tempt Seattle to part ways with him, especially if Michael looks primed to take over. Finally, while I like Turbin, he lacks the dynamic talent of Michael.

 
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Interesting to see Michael so high there. I took him at #4 and #5 in my last two drafts after getting him at #10 to #15 all summer, but figured I was reaching.
What is the thought of Michael so high? Is the assumption that he will take over for Lynch in 1-2 years, ahead of Turbin? Just seems like a huge jump based solely on a couple of preseason games (vs. #2 defenses?)
I thought he was an interesting guy from day one because his combine numbers were so freakish and the Seahawks used a high pick to get him. From a measurables standpoint, he's the most gifted RB in the class and it's not that close. My only big concern with him was whether or not he could translate that athletic ability into football success. I liked, but didn't love his college highlights/game cuts. For all his talent, he had kind of a spotty career at Texas A&M. Never topped the 1000+ yard mark, struggled with injuries, and was mired in a committee last year with a couple other decent backs.

But now that he's in the NFL, the buzz has been almost overwhelmingly positive. Pretty much from day one practice observers were saying that he looked like a great pick and a future starter. That has carried over into the preseason games, where he has looked like a real height/weight/speed monster. He's a guy that requires some patience because he most likely won't have any functional value for a year or two, but when the opportunity comes he will likely be a top 10 dynasty RB. I feel a lot better about his talent than I do Ball, Bell, or Lacy.

As for your question, he's clearly a more gifted runner than Turbin. Just looks the part. The buy low window has already come and gone for the most part, but now is the time to pounce if there are still owners out there who stumbled upon him by accident in the rookie draft and don't know what they have.

 
Interesting to see Michael so high there. I took him at #4 and #5 in my last two drafts after getting him at #10 to #15 all summer, but figured I was reaching.
What is the thought of Michael so high? Is the assumption that he will take over for Lynch in 1-2 years, ahead of Turbin? Just seems like a huge jump based solely on a couple of preseason games (vs. #2 defenses?)
Premium position, potentially unlimited talent, great situation (in time) and the character stuff has been totally silent.

As for why I took him there instead of trading back... I'd already had 8-9 drafts and took Michael in all but a couple where he was either rostered or I didn't have an early pick. So several of my league mates knew I liked him a lot. And by the last couple drafts the buzz was already out there.

Since I already thought he should be a top-5 pick and I wasn't really sure where his stock had risen to I just went ahead and took him rather than trading back and messing around with the chance that I'd get sniped. It's a sick feeling when you get beaten to a guy you think is an elite prospect.

 
Interesting to see Michael so high there. I took him at #4 and #5 in my last two drafts after getting him at #10 to #15 all summer, but figured I was reaching.
What is the thought of Michael so high? Is the assumption that he will take over for Lynch in 1-2 years, ahead of Turbin? Just seems like a huge jump based solely on a couple of preseason games (vs. #2 defenses?)
I thought he was an interesting guy from day one because his combine numbers were so freakish and the Seahawks used a high pick to get him. From a measurables standpoint, he's the most gifted RB in the class and it's not that close. My only big concern with him was whether or not he could translate that athletic ability into football success. I liked, but didn't love his college highlights/game cuts. For all his talent, he had kind of a spotty career at Texas A&M. Never topped the 1000+ yard mark, struggled with injuries, and was mired in a committee last year with a couple other decent backs.

But now that he's in the NFL, the buzz has been almost overwhelmingly positive. Pretty much from day one practice observers were saying that he looked like a great pick and a future starter. That has carried over into the preseason games, where he has looked like a real height/weight/speed monster. He's a guy that requires some patience because he most likely won't have any functional value for a year or two, but when the opportunity comes he will likely be a top 10 dynasty RB. I feel a lot better about his talent than I do Ball, Bell, or Lacy.

As for your question, he's clearly a more gifted runner than Turbin. Just looks the part. The buy low window has already come and gone for the most part, but now is the time to pounce if there are still owners out there who stumbled upon him by accident in the rookie draft and don't know what they have.
EBF, Have you updated your rookie drafts? I was just revisiting a post-draft link you did in April, and wondering if pre-season has influenced your rankings

http://www.fftoolboxforums.com/index.php?showtopic=30484

 
Interesting to see Michael so high there. I took him at #4 and #5 in my last two drafts after getting him at #10 to #15 all summer, but figured I was reaching.
What is the thought of Michael so high? Is the assumption that he will take over for Lynch in 1-2 years, ahead of Turbin? Just seems like a huge jump based solely on a couple of preseason games (vs. #2 defenses?)
I thought he was an interesting guy from day one because his combine numbers were so freakish and the Seahawks used a high pick to get him. From a measurables standpoint, he's the most gifted RB in the class and it's not that close. My only big concern with him was whether or not he could translate that athletic ability into football success. I liked, but didn't love his college highlights/game cuts. For all his talent, he had kind of a spotty career at Texas A&M. Never topped the 1000+ yard mark, struggled with injuries, and was mired in a committee last year with a couple other decent backs.

But now that he's in the NFL, the buzz has been almost overwhelmingly positive. Pretty much from day one practice observers were saying that he looked like a great pick and a future starter. That has carried over into the preseason games, where he has looked like a real height/weight/speed monster. He's a guy that requires some patience because he most likely won't have any functional value for a year or two, but when the opportunity comes he will likely be a top 10 dynasty RB. I feel a lot better about his talent than I do Ball, Bell, or Lacy.

As for your question, he's clearly a more gifted runner than Turbin. Just looks the part. The buy low window has already come and gone for the most part, but now is the time to pounce if there are still owners out there who stumbled upon him by accident in the rookie draft and don't know what they have.
EBF, Have you updated your rookie drafts? I was just revisiting a post-draft link you did in April, and wondering if pre-season has influenced your rankings

http://www.fftoolboxforums.com/index.php?showtopic=30484
I posted some new thoughts above.

There haven't been too many radical changes.

Bernard and Michael move up. Both backs leapfrog Lacy and the WRs.

Manuel, McDonald, and Willson get bumps too. Willson was not on my initial list. I would now consider him in the 20-30 range.

Thompkins goes from out of nowhere to be a top 12-15 option.

No major bumps down yet. Da'Rick was unranked for me in the first place. Other duds like Franklin and Stacy were also low on that list. Slight bump down to Boyce, mainly due to the Thompkins factor. Still like his chances to be a decent player down the road. Modest bump down for Harper. Would have liked a better preseason for him, but it won't be panic time until he gets cut. This game on Thursday night will be big for him.

No other major notes.

 
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From that original April link you had the following

01 Tavon Austin

02 Eddie Lacy

03 Eifert, Tyler

04 Hopkins, DeAndre

05 Cordarrelle Patterson

06 Justin Hunter

07 Bernard, Giovani

08 Ball, Montee

09 Bell, Le'Veon

10 Keenan Allen

11 Michael, Christine

13 Marcus Lattimore

14 Woods, Robert

17 Wheaton, Markus

18 Quinton Patton

20 Kelce, Travis

25 Johnathan Franklin

but now, your top 10 or so goes something like....

Michael, Eifert, Gio, and Austin (Michael/Gio up, Lacy down)

Patterson, Hopkins, Hunter, and Lacy.

01 Michael, Christine

02 Bernard, Giovani

03 Eifert, Tyler

04 Tavon Austin

05 Hopkins, DeAndre

06 Cordarrelle Patterson

07 Justin Hunter

08 Eddie Lacy

09 Ball, Montee

10 Bell, Le'Veon

11 Keenan Allen

In the second bunch, how do you feel about the upside of Patterson and Hopkins?

 
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In the second bunch, how do you feel about the upside of Patterson and Hopkins?
I had a tough time with those two throughout the process. I don't hate them, but neither really popped for me on video in the sense that Demaryius Thomas and Dez Bryant did.

If I had to compare them directly, I'd categorize Hopkins as more of a safe pick with modest upside and Patterson as a volatile pick with high potential.

There's a surprisingly clear relationship between elite #1 NFL WRs and combine numbers. Most of them have good size along with solid numbers in a few of the drills. You generally want a BMI upwards of 26, a vertical of 35" or better, and a broad jump of 10' or better. Those seem to be the minimum requirements for a #1 target. There are some borderline guys who have been successful, but if you go around the league and look at the real top class guys you'll be surprised how many of them fit that pattern (Fitzgerald, Andre, Calvin, Julio, Nicks, VJax, Dez, Cruz, Harvin, Wayne, Marshall, etc).

Hopkins comes up a little short from that standpoint. He has a good frame, but he's a bit slow in the 40 and he had a disappointing broad jump (9'7"). He's got great hands and good suddenness in his routes. I think he can be a quality starter. I'll be surprised if he's a huge bust. I don't see the high end top 10 potential though. I think he's going to be more like an Eric Decker, Mike Williams, or Stevie Johnson in FF terms. A player who's more reliant on system and usage than a truly elite athlete who can dominate regardless. I say that in part because of his workout numbers and in part because that's also what he looks like (to me) in his game cuts/highlights. Good player. Tough. Catches the ball wall. Doesn't overwhelm people with physical talent though. So the risk with him is that you spend a top 5 rookie pick on him and he becomes a perennial 700-1000 yard kind of guy. Someone who's useful, but doesn't win you games on his own. If you're fine with that, he's a good pick for you. If you're aiming for more of a potential mega star, there are better options.

Patterson is closer to the elite #1 prototype from an NFL standpoint. He has the size, speed, and explosiveness that are consistent with the best in the league. He's dangerous in space, which is a quality that I value, especially in a big WR. A big WR with good mobility is basically the dream prototype at the position. The issues with Patterson are based more around production and a few subjective things that I had trouble with. He only played one season in major college football and only recorded one 100+ yard game (which happened to be a 200+ yard game). At this point he's being ranked more based on what he might become at WR and less on his achievements there. His production as a WR was okay, but not prolific last season. So maybe he's Chad Johnson (another one year college player) and he's going to dominate in the NFL regardless because he's that talented. Or maybe he's just a flashy athlete being overdrafted on his physical tools, return skills, and potential rather than his actual ability as a pass catcher. Tough to say. He's explosive in his highlights and he makes some "wow" plays, which I liked. I felt he had kind of a unique, long-legged running/cutting style though and did a lot of jerky start-stop juking stuff that might not fly in the NFL. It's hard to put into words, but he just didn't look as smooth to me as someone like Thomas or Harvin. The fact that he had the worst three cone time of any major WR prospect at the combine also hints towards issues with fluidity/turn radius/lateral quickness. The raw materials of a great WR are there on paper and I think he has the highest ceiling of any WR prospect in this draft if he hits, but for me there were enough issues there to avoid him in the top 3-4 picks. He's a guy that I'd feel better about in the 5-7 slots, which is right where I have him ranked now.

 
I have only been doing positional rankings for the most part up to this point. So here is a combined rookie list I am not entirely settled on-

Gio Bernard
Cordelle Patterson
DeAndre Hopkins
Christine Michael
Eddie Lacy
Tavon Austin
Tyler Eifert
Travis Kelce
Zac Stacy
Monte Ball
LeVeon Bell
Keenan Allen
Stedman Bailey
Kenbrell Thompkins
Quinton Patton
EJ Manuel
Marcus Wheaton
Robert Woods
Aaron Dobson
Terrance Williams
Kenny Stills
Vance McDonald
Marcus Lattimore
Zach Ertz
Knile Davis
Ciere Wood
Joseph Randle
Dernard Robinson
Marquise Goodwin
Justin Hunter

The remaining players I consider more on watch status than players I would roster right now (depends on roster size of course).

Mike Glennon
Jordan Reed
Josh Boyce
Tavarres King
Charles Johnson
Stepfan Taylor
Andre Ellington
CJ Anderson
Kenjon Barner
Levine Toilolono
Marquess Wilson
Johnathan Franklin
Gavin Escobar
Nate Sudfeld
Justin Brown
Michael Cox
Aaron Mellette - perhaps Marlon Brown instead.

The main players who have moved up for me recently are Kenbrell Thompkins, Christine Michael, Kenny Stills, Quinton Patton, Aaron Dobson moved down slightly due to KT. My initial thoughts on Michael was that his path to playing time would be blocked and he would not show that much right away. Wrong. So that is why I moved him up. Also listening to discussion about the situation here in SP helped me realize that Lynch is not as entrenched as I initially thought.

New players I added were Cierre Wood, Michael Cox, CJ Anderson, Justin Brown, Charles Johnson.

I may have still forgotten someone here. Feedback welcome.
 
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Just pointing that Lynch's salary after this year is not guaranteed.

I'm not saying he will be cut, but if Michael shows a lot, Lynch could be expandable. Also, we are still waiting on the conclusion of Lynch's legal woes.

Finally, Seattle might be going into Cap hell next year and while the picture is bad, it is not apocalyptic. Still, veterans with no guaranteed monies tied to them are usually first ones to be let go. I also have high hopes on Seattle being a perennial contender, so they won't let the past dictates the future.

That's why I'm targeting Christine Michael at 1.07 and feel he is a top 3 talent in the rookie pool. He might still be undervalued as of now. He carries some risk, but the whole class does too except Hopkins who is a top 36 WR for years to come.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1749155-seattle-seahawks-facing-tough-cap-decisions-with-remaining-roster-cuts

 
Dynasty. I'll go 17 deep.

  1. Christine Michael - Hope I'm not wrong. I have sold the farm for him. I think that he simply will not be denied.
  2. Giovanni Bernard - Seems set to produce decent numbers from the get go and soon enough rb1 numbers.
  3. Eddie Lacy - Except for durability issues, I'd have him higher.
  4. DeAndre Hopkins - I have him and Patterson rated just about equal. Hopkins higher floor. Patterson higher ceiling.
  5. Cordarrelle Patterson - see above.
  6. Tavon Austin - Not sure he will be enough of a reception hog to be a legitimiate wr1.
  7. Tyler Eifert - Seems certain to be a top-10 te for years to come.
  8. Le'Veon Bell - Not elite, but if he can stay on the field, he will be a workhorse.
  9. Marcus Lattimore - Will he recover sufficiently? Late enough in the draft that I am willing to swing for an all-or-none.
  10. EJ Manual - Less sure of him, but just have a sense he will grow into a high qb2 / low qb1.
  11. Montee Ball - Not completely convinced of his talent level, don't trust the coach to change his colors.
  12. Markus Wheaton - I think by the end of 2014, he is at minimum #2 in Pittsburgh.
  13. Kenbrell Thompkins - Yes he seems certain to get his targets. But gets my NE discount for anyone not named Gronkowski or Amendola.
  14. Keenan Allen - Potential to be a strong wr2.
  15. Aaron Dobson - I think there is a chance that in time he equals or bypasses Thompkins. Not yet convinced.
  16. Stedman Bailey - I like the youngster a lot. I think that he will find a way to get on the field.
  17. Travis Kelce - So many rookie TEs that look interesting. Have Kelce pegged as my #2.
First tier: picks 1 thru 3.

Second tier: picks 4 thru 8.

Third tier: picks 9 thru 12.

Fourth tier: 13 thru 17.

 
Not to get off topic, but does it feel like this class has exceeded expectations a little bit in the early going?

Particularly at the RB position, I feel like there is more to be excited about than many thought just a few months ago. Seems like Bernard, Lacy and Michael all looked better than expected in the preseason and are moving up the overall dynasty rankings.

Same at the WR position with Patterson, Hopkins (though the concussion stalled his momentum), Woods, Wheaton and Kenbrell Thompkins.

While ranking the rookies against each other is interesting, I am having the most trouble figuring out how they fit into the overall dynasty rankings and where some of these guys would go in a startup that took place today.

If anyone that has given their rookie rankings above is willing, I would love to see which round you think these guys would go in a 12 team PPR startup.

My gut tells me that the top 2 or 3 RBs have worked their way into late 2/early 3. I am having a hard time figuring out where the WRs would slot in overall.

 
Here are Couch Potato's rankings from April-May- http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=680489

Sucks all his nice formatting and such got completely mangled when the board changed over. I hope that happens less moving forward.

It is labor day weekend so I may work on an overall list. If I get far enough with that will post it here. I think my list will be pretty similar to what CP did here. He is a pretty shmart cat when he gets motivated enough. :)

But since he isn't I guess I can't be quite as lazy. :kicksrock:

 
Rookie draft in 3 yr contract league on Saturday:

1. Lacy

2. Ball

3. Bell

4 Giovani

5 Tavon

6 Patterson

**7 Hopkins

8 Dobson

**9 Michael

10 Sudfeld

...

**17 Thompkins

I was going to go Michael/Thompkins at 7/9 but Hopkins fell to me. Just traded away a 2014 1st Rd Rookie pick for Thompkins.

3 year contracts so I valued Thompkins since I think he'll play right away. Plus need receiver help since Harvin down.
Sudfeld as the first TE off the board, in the top 10? Is there some league-specific rules quirk that would make that an appealing option?

 
Rookie draft in 3 yr contract league on Saturday:

1. Lacy

2. Ball

3. Bell

4 Giovani

5 Tavon

6 Patterson

**7 Hopkins

8 Dobson

**9 Michael

10 Sudfeld

...

**17 Thompkins

I was going to go Michael/Thompkins at 7/9 but Hopkins fell to me. Just traded away a 2014 1st Rd Rookie pick for Thompkins.

3 year contracts so I valued Thompkins since I think he'll play right away. Plus need receiver help since Harvin down.
Sudfeld as the first TE off the board, in the top 10? Is there some league-specific rules quirk that would make that an appealing option?
Just looks like an epic reach, with all due respect.

Eifert still out there. Not to mention Ertz, Kelce, McDonald, Escobar, Reed, and Willson.

Someone got a little drunk on the preseason Pats Kool-Aid.

 

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