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Dynasty: NON-Draft eligible College prospects (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Xue
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Xue
Footballguy
http://www.nfl.com/photoessays/0ap2000000354297/14-for-14-most-freakish-athletes-in-college-football
Can't believe Tyreek Hill doesn't even make this list. He's arguably the fastest player in college football and has some nasty cutting ability as well.
Can't believe Tyreek Hill doesn't even make this list. He's arguably the fastest player in college football and has some nasty cutting ability as well.
Vincesanity
Footballguy
Didn't realize Bryce Petty was that athletic.
MAC_32
Footballguy
Tevin Coleman did though. He has my attention. Dominated my Falcons, wasn't as impressive vs Michigan but can't expect an A performance every week. Hits the size metrics, has incredible speed, and cuts well enough. Productive too. Big plays come early and often. Didn't get to see him do anything in the passing game in the two games I saw, but numbers are there in other games,
Xue
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
One of the more impressive high school RB highlights I've seen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6JjI9NEaUGw
Amazing balance, strength, and cutting ability. If Nick Chubb ran like this on the field, he'd easily be the #1 Freshman RB for me.
Amazing balance, strength, and cutting ability. If Nick Chubb ran like this on the field, he'd easily be the #1 Freshman RB for me.
Preparing for my first devy draft, would anyone be able to post their top 15ish rankings for all college players? This is one of the only devy discussions I've been able to find, and would love to have something else to go by to compare to DLF rankings and my limited watching of highlight videos etc.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
Top 5 is fairly straight forward, then a rough ranking after that off the top of my head, I'm sure I'll leave someone out:
Gurley
Gordon
Treadwell
Cooper
Diggs
Tyner
Mike Davis
Yeldon
Alex Collins
Karlos Williams
Henry
Boyd
Coates
Funchess
Duke
Ajayi
North
Clement
Gurley
Gordon
Treadwell
Cooper
Diggs
Tyner
Mike Davis
Yeldon
Alex Collins
Karlos Williams
Henry
Boyd
Coates
Funchess
Duke
Ajayi
North
Clement
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I'll give a little excerpt on each guy.
Note: I prefer guys that have done it over "potential"
1) Gurley - He's awesome. Big, strong, fast, powerful, good vision, can cut, and good hands. I'm worried he might be getting too big and his stamina needs to get better.
2) Gordon - He's so smooth it almost doesn't look like he's trying. But he slips away from defenders easily with many moves. I don't think he's a 4.3 guy, but good speed. Questions are on his hands and running inside.
3) Mike Davis - Very well put together at 5'9 215. He seems a bit stiff to me and I'm left wanting more change of direction ability from him. I don't think Davis has the pedigree or ceiling of Gurley/Gordon, but he gets everything out of his abilities. He's probably a 4.5 flat to 4.55 guy. Angry runner.
Big gap
4) Cooper - He played injured last year, but I love guys that make plays in the biggest moments. He's more athletic than we give him credit for, but he has a ceiling of a WR2.
5) Treadwell - Lots of receptions, 5 star recruit, #1 WR in his class, SEC freshman of the year, etc. He had a terrible YPC and I question his quickness/change of direction abilities. Some chalk it up to playing out of the slot, but he had almost half the YPC of AJ Green and Julio Jones' freshman seasons. Treadwell is tall and has the makeup of a FF WR1, but also comes with a huge risk as he could be Rueben Randle 2.0.
6) Yeldon - two straight 1,000 + and 6.0 + YPC seasons, yet he's getting drafted lower than players who have yet to take a college snap(Fournette) or Henry who has very limited touches. Yeldon is thick, tough, fast, good hands, and vision. Yeldon isn't great at any one thing, but above average at about all.
7) Diggs - really athletic, i'm unsure on his straight line speed and if he's a natural WR(like Tavon) but rather a playmaker. His slight frame may limit his FF impact to a WR2 or WR3.
8) Tyner - He's getting more hype than he deserves at this point, but he has a good frame and speed. But what's the difference between him/Karlos Williams, Knile Davis/etc. Big fast guy with little wiggle so far, he could do more though.
Well that's all I have time for now, hope it helps.
EBF
Footballguy
My rough positional rankings for the top few guys:
QB Christian Hackenberg, Penn State
QB Bryce Petty, Baylor
QB Marcus Mariota, Oregon
RB Todd Gurley, Georgia
RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin
RB Thomas Tyner, Oregon
RB Leonard Fournette, LSU
RB Michael Dyer, Louisville
RB Mike Davis, South Carolina
RB TJ Yeldon, Alabama
RB Nick Chubb, Georgia
RB Ezekiel Elliott, Ohio State
RB Ameer Abdullah, Nebraska
RB Karlos Williams, Florida State
RB Alex Collins, Arkansas
RB Tevin Coleman, Indiana
RB Greg Bryant, Notre Dame
WR Stefon Diggs, Maryland
WR Speedy Noil, Texas A&M
WR Laquon Treadwell, Mississippi
WR Amari Cooper, Alabama
WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford
WR Sammie Coates, Auburn
WR Bo Scarbrough, Alabama
WR Ricky Seals-Jones, Texas A&M
WR Damore'ea Stringfellow, Nebraska
WR Rashad Greene, Florida State
WR DeAndrew White, Alabama
TE OJ Howard, Alabama
TE Hunter Henry, Arkansas
TE Ben Koyack, Notre Dame
TE Maxx Williams, Minnesota
TE Johnny Mundt, Oregon
TE Devon Cajuste, Stanford
TE Tyler Kroft, Rutgers
I'm sure things will change a lot, but that's what I have right now in my files. I think the college WR ranks look really light right now. Very very weak. There's nobody there who I consider a premium prospect. On the other hand, there's a lot of talent at RB. The top 8-9 there all seem to have franchise back potential in the NFL. I haven't spent the time recently looking at them to decide on clear favorites, but based on value-per-cost, it's Dyer, Elliott, and Chubb all day, as the other guys are all very expensive. Not wild about the TEs. Just lukewarm on those guys. Howard may be a little overrated, but he's a freshman phenom with reported 4.4-4.5 speed at 6'6" and despite being thin through the lower body, he's a good blocker. Still a bit of a projection, but he's shaping up to be a pretty strong prospect. Like the look of Koyack. He needs to take a step forward with his production as a senior.
Xue
Footballguy
Treadwell's quickness and change of direction are pretty good:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PkPcnqy3SJk
Xue
Footballguy
Koyack is pretty overrated. Not even in my top 5 Senior TEs.
Surprised you're so high on Noil, yet couldn't bear accepting that Beckham was better than Lee. And you have him over Treadwell? Pass. Diggs over him, too? Anyone who's high on Noil, should equally be high on KD Cannon. Not only is Cannon fast and quick, he knows how to use it on the field: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OnaMZhgboW0
It's a bit ironic how you like to hammer a point about what an "elite" WR should look like, yet Noil is much more likely to never become one due to his size.
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EBF
Footballguy
I won't say it's a slam dunk, but yes I probably would. The two guys you named aren't slouches. They've both acquitted themselves pretty well in their NCAA carries, but at the same time neither looks like a slam dunk lock to me. Karlos has a very lean and high-cut body type and everything I've seen of his game has been straight line. I'm not saying he can't be successful, but it's more of a projection than some make it out to be. I really like the speed that Collins showed last year and his production was outstanding. On the other hand, I also felt he was pretty straight-line with a lack of lower body strength. Actually, he and Karlos have some similarities in certain ways. Both are best as north-south vertical speed runners. Same with Tyner.
Chubb has similar speed to those guys and is built better than Karlos or Collins. One thing I've learned with devy drafts over the years is that it's wise to anchor to players who already have NFL caliber physical tools rather than going for NCAA overachievers with questionable physical talent. My hyping of Chubb is consistent with that philosophy, as he's already big/strong/fast enough to play in the NFL as a high schooler. Even with all the talent they have at Georgia, it's tough to envision a scenario where he doesn't get on the field in the next 1-2 years and do enough to pump up his devy stock ala Henry/Tyner. At that point you can cash out or decide if you want to keep him.
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EBF
Footballguy
You are always saying everyone is overrated. I don't pay it any mind. Draft Scout has Koyack as the #3 senior TE and I think he looks promising in the clips I've seen. He needs to take some big steps forward next year in terms of his statistical production, but athletically he looks the part of a starting NFL TE.
I like Noil and Diggs in the context of what I view as a really poor college WR crop at this exact juncture in time. They would be not be ranked that high if there were a Crabtree/Dez/Blackmon in the ranks. I haven't seen that player yet though, so somebody has to be #1 by default. Noil is a low ceiling/high floor type. Very good athlete. No height. May top out as a complementary target. Others like Stringfellow, Scarbrough, and Treadwell have more prototypical NFL #1 WR size. If you want upside, they might be the better dice rolls. Problem is that they don't come very cheap relative to their level of achievement. I would not take one of them at his ADP today. I would not be looking to take a WR in a dev draft this year unless somebody like Montgomery or Noil fell really far. Value isn't there.
Don't see anything special about that kid you linked. Just another skinny high schooler who needs to hit the training table. I don't like skinny WRs and going back to what I said, I don't like spending dev picks on players who need significant physical development in order to have an NFL body. No sense taking on the added risk when you can just draft a guy who's already there.
I have a good number of 2015 devy picks as well as this years. I am not sure it changes much, but I'm thinking that I should lean towards 2015 eligible players (when close), so that I dilute the 2015 devy picks as little as possible. Is this sound logic, and would it change which way you would go?
By the way thanks to everyone.
Xue
Footballguy
Koyak looks like a Jake Murphy/Arthur Lynch type. Day 3 guy. I don't even see him being better than guys like Fiedorowicz and Gillmore. Surprised you're not pimping your guy Cartwright.
I still don't see how you can justify being high on Noil, and Dupre and Malone are nowhere to be found. Dupre is quite the freak athlete himself; 42.4" vertical: http://espn.go.com/college-sports/football/recruiting/player/combine/_/id/169207/malachi-dupre
Malone is one of more "college-ready" WRs out of the Freshman. He's going to have an Amari Cooper type impact and could have better numbers than North.
You don't see anything special about what Noil can do at the LOS? What if you knew that some of those reps were against an Alabama 5* CB who has a high chance of starting this season?
I mean, if you're into freak athletes, there's an ACC Freshman that's 6'4", 230lbs and high jumped 7-1. Doesn't need physical development: Check! NFL-ready body: Check! Body that's already there: Check!
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Bob Barker
Footballguy
what about Funchess? I see him ranked high some places. Will he be a WR or TE in the NFL?
identikit
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
I'm pretty high on Funchess. He's more of an upside "projection" guy right now compared to guys like Cooper and Diggs, who have already done a lot so far. Has the size and athleticism to become a top 5-7 type of guy. Needs to polish up those hands, though.
He's only a 20-year old Jr this year. That's pretty young. AJ Green was already 20 years old as a Freshman.
I have him as a WR in the NFL. He's going to have to bulk up to 240-250 to be a TE.
EBF
Footballguy
I've always been of the mind that you should take the best talent on your board. If that's a freshman, you take the freshman. If that's a senior, you take the senior.
If you're deciding between two players of equivalent talent then you take the guy who's closer to being in the draft.
I would only pass on the underclassmen if I were convinced that there were better players with more advanced eligibility on the board. If not, there's no point leaving them out there for another year. Not to toot my own horn too much, but I got Tyner with the 1.08 pick in two drafts last year. I could have left him out there, but now his value is higher than that, so I'd likely have to spend a higher pick to get him today. If you see a guy you like, why risk that? Just take him off the board and worry about next year next year.
Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
I need to watch more of him but I could see him easily being a top 10 rookie pick in '15 with his size/athleticism. I could see putting him in the Coates, Funchess range. Same with Parker who was one I also forgot.
Here's my devy roster before you take any advice from me though. See if you like my style or not. http://football14.myfantasyleague.com/2014/options?L=18567&O=07&F=0011
I had Funchess above.
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Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
My lists are a little disorganized right now because I don't have a dev draft until August. You could put him in there around Abdullah. Higher ceiling than Ameer, but IMO hasn't shown enough to justify his massive hype yet. His value ballooned on 2-3 big plays that were basically straight sprints. A guy like Chubb has just as much physical ability, if not more, and can be had in the 40+ range of a deep dev draft. Much better gamble than Henry in the top 5-7.Ramblin Wreck said:
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Karlos Williams is 6'0 220lbs with 4.4 wheels, questionable physical talent is the last thing to worry about when it comes to Karlos Williams imo.
One thing I've learned in devy drafts is it's wise to anchor to players who have already shown something against NCAA competition and who are at worst, 2 years away from being drafted in the NFL, while having a strong preference for taking players who are just 1 season away. Drafting a guy like Chubb who is 4 years away from doing anything in the NFL at the earliest is a complete waste, especially if your league only allows you to hold a few devy players. In that same time that it took for Chubb to get promoted to your NFL roster you could have had 3 players graduate to your NFL roster from that same one devy roster spot.
You're much better off cycling through your devy picks quickly then sitting and waiting for 3+ years on some hyped high school kid that's proven nothing and has a high tendency to bust.
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My league has an unlimited taxi squad for college players, but still I agree with you. The time discount of the player not eligible until 2017 has to be a consideration.
Bob Barker
Footballguy
There is 1 round of 12 college players each year. Any players picked are on taxi squad without any limitation per team. You activate them to roster when they become rookies.
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EBF
Footballguy
You're much better off getting the best player out there, regardless of age.
As for Williams, he's a very long-legged and high-cut runner. Certainly doesn't have an ideal body type regardless of what the listed dimensions say. I think he can be effective as a north-south runner, but as we've seen with McFadden, if you can't break tackles or run with quickness then you might struggle in the NFL.
Williams is stronger than DMC. However, he has a very similar running style and overall game.
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EBF
Footballguy
I'd also add re: the "time until impact" issue, it's deceptive to say that because a freshman won't be draft-eligible until year X then a junior or senior is a better investment because he'll provide an earlier yield. What are Tyner and Henry worth right now in market value? What were Yeldon and Gurley worth after their freshman seasons? In every case, the players went up cosiderably in market value by playing well in college. So if you take a guy like Chubb or Fournette, does that mean you have to wait until 2017 to see any benefit? Of course not. If either of those guys shows anything next season then he'll be a coveted asset.
If anything, high-profile young players who show flashes are prone to being grossly overrated after one or two seasons. Look at where DGB, Treadwell, Henry, and Tyner are ranked and ask yourself whether their production on the field justifies the price tag. In every case the answer is no. Yet because they were top recruits and they've shown some nice flashes, they're valued like elite prospects. With that in mind, you can see how a guy like Chubb could represent a great investment for the cost of a devy pick in the 30-45 range. If he rushes for 300-400 yards next season with one or two highlight reel type plays, he will likely get the Derrick Henry treatment and suddenly be rated as a top 10 guy by everybody.
Point being, the idea that you need to draft a guy like Chubb, sit on him for three years, and hope he becomes a great NFL player to yield any return on your investment is just a totally artificial way of interpreting the situation. A lot can happen between now and the time he's draft-eligible to increase his value. You don't even need to keep him beyond his freshman season. If he shows promise, peddle him to some youth-crazy devy hoarder for something else.
If anything, high-profile young players who show flashes are prone to being grossly overrated after one or two seasons. Look at where DGB, Treadwell, Henry, and Tyner are ranked and ask yourself whether their production on the field justifies the price tag. In every case the answer is no. Yet because they were top recruits and they've shown some nice flashes, they're valued like elite prospects. With that in mind, you can see how a guy like Chubb could represent a great investment for the cost of a devy pick in the 30-45 range. If he rushes for 300-400 yards next season with one or two highlight reel type plays, he will likely get the Derrick Henry treatment and suddenly be rated as a top 10 guy by everybody.
Point being, the idea that you need to draft a guy like Chubb, sit on him for three years, and hope he becomes a great NFL player to yield any return on your investment is just a totally artificial way of interpreting the situation. A lot can happen between now and the time he's draft-eligible to increase his value. You don't even need to keep him beyond his freshman season. If he shows promise, peddle him to some youth-crazy devy hoarder for something else.
excellent point EBF!
Since FF is a fluid situation of 12-14 teams all with differing agendas/time frames, you can draft a Chubb. You cost is one devy pick. There is a carry cost, too, but only if you choose. So at any time you can cash out for Market Value, which will surely be higher if he produces Frosh year and lower if he gets injured.
[side bar: I think the Market Value of the Devy player is highest after they declare for the NFL draft and probably right before the draft. YMMV]
If your team is a strong contender, maybe you cash out for a potentially useful piece. I like to trade the unknown for the known.
If you like to hoard and/or use picks, maybe you trade him for another Devy pick plus. This gives me Capital Gain since I have converted the carry cost into another player or pick.
I will also say that my likelihood of investing in an incoming Frosh will be tied to the current make up of my team. If I have a contender, I like the idea of a youth infusion sooner than later.
Since FF is a fluid situation of 12-14 teams all with differing agendas/time frames, you can draft a Chubb. You cost is one devy pick. There is a carry cost, too, but only if you choose. So at any time you can cash out for Market Value, which will surely be higher if he produces Frosh year and lower if he gets injured.
[side bar: I think the Market Value of the Devy player is highest after they declare for the NFL draft and probably right before the draft. YMMV]
If your team is a strong contender, maybe you cash out for a potentially useful piece. I like to trade the unknown for the known.
If you like to hoard and/or use picks, maybe you trade him for another Devy pick plus. This gives me Capital Gain since I have converted the carry cost into another player or pick.
I will also say that my likelihood of investing in an incoming Frosh will be tied to the current make up of my team. If I have a contender, I like the idea of a youth infusion sooner than later.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
For every Gurley and Yeldon there is, there's three Bri'onte Dunn, Mario Pender, and Jovon Robinson types. When you draft players who are draft eligible you decrease your chances of drafting an outright bust exponentially.
As for the whole drafting players to trade them later scenario, perhaps it depends on one's league but that's playing with fire from my experience. Trades are hard enough to complete when they're involving NFL players with years of a track record; coming to a mutual agreement in a trade involving devy prospects is incredibly difficult; at least from my own experience.
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Xue
Footballguy
Gurley wasn't even hyped much before he even played a snap of college football. Yeldon was getting all the Adrian Peterson comparisons. Gurley could have very well be on the same path as those other 3 names.
In 3 deep Devy drafts in 2012, Yeldon was picked: 1.02, 1.03, 2.02. Gurley went: 3.02, 7.12, and the 3rd league that was 4 rounds, he wasn't even drafted. The other 2 leagues were 6 and 10 rounds.
These 3 leagues have owners that consisted of some very knowledgeable and credible Devy and NFL Draft writers/analysts.
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Bronx Bomber
Footballguy
EBF
Footballguy
I don't know if I agree with that. What I like about established college players is that they've cleared more of the hurdles. You don't need to wonder if a guy like Todd Gurley can win a starting job and become a productive college back because he has already done it. On the other hand, with a guy like Leonard Fournette or Nick Chubb, there's always the chance that he just doesn't have the goods even at the college level and/or that he can't handle the responsibilities of being a college athlete. A lot of players wash out due to character issues before they can even really get their feet wet.
However, I don't really agree that a college player is always a safer pick than a high school player. First off, there is typically quite a bit of information out there for the 4-5 star national recruits and that gives you the ability to weigh the variables and hopefully improve your evaluations beyond random chance. I took Tyner in two leagues last year when Derrick Green was widely regarded as the "better" RB prospect. That was not random luck. It was a matter of looking at the players and making sound evaluations. I have some (not total) confidence in my ability to do that, which removes a lot of the bogey man fear of getting stuck with the next 5* zero. I'm not going to indiscriminately draft highly-touted high school players. I'm only going to consider the ones who check all the boxes.
Perhaps more importantly, I think what tends to happen in devy leagues is that a lot of the guys with obvious NFL tools and solid college production to back it up are already rostered, which makes it an artificial dilemma when you talk about taking an excellent incoming freshman or an excellent sophomore-junior. In my all-class devy leagues, many of the most obviously talented sophomores-juniors are already rostered. I cannot take Gurley, Yeldon, or Tyner ahead of Fournette because they're simply not in the pool. So the question isn't, "Do you take a freshman with elite potential over a sophomore-junio with elite potential?" It's more like, "Do you take a freshman with elite potential over a sophomore-junior with solid production, but obvious warts?"
My response is what I said initially. You take the best player regardless of age. If I have the choice between a 3rd round talent who's a rising NCAA junior or a high school senior with first round physical tools who already passes the eyeball test, I'm going to take the younger player every time. My goal is to get the best player possible, and from experience that often means dropping down a class or two to get the absolute very best prospect from that class as opposed to "settling" with the 5-7th best prospect from an older class that has already been picked over.
Time Kibitzer
Footballguy
Based on what I've seen in Devy Drafts from my experience and those posted on these boards, despite guys like Gurley (sometimes), Tyner (sometimes) and Yeldon (pretty much always) already being owned, guys like Mike Davis, Karlos Williams, Melvin Gordon, Javorious Allen, etc. who are the general consensus top draft-eligible backs outside of Gurley/Yeldon aren't owned. So the choice is in fact "Do I take a freshman with elite potential or junior with elite potential?" At least that seems to be the case in these 1/2 round devy drafts that seem to be the majority.Though if you're talking about 10-12 round devy drafts like someone mentioned earlier than I'd be much more willing to consider high-schoolers later in drafts.
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EBF
Footballguy
Gordon doesn't really belong in the discussion since he has a much higher ADP than Fournette/Chubb/etc and will go ahead of them in virtually any draft where he's eligible. DLF staff rankings have Gordon as the #2 devy pick.You would need a top 2-3 pick to get him in most leagues. IMO HS players usually don't become the BPA until a little bit deeper in the draft. If you have a later pick (let's say in the 8-14 range) then a lot of the most appealing sophomore-senior options will already be gone. That's typically where I think it starts to make more sense to consider HS players as opposed to getting a second tier collegiate.
Putting that aside, your argument is contingent on someone believing that those players you listed (Davis, Williams, Allen) are potential elite talents. I don't think Allen has a chance. The other two are more interesting, but there's also a pretty good argument that someone like Chubb or Fournette offers more talent. I don't draft by a general rule ("i.e. always take the college player" or "always take the HS player"), but if in a specific instance I believed that the HS player was better then that's the pick I'd make. For me it's as simple as, "Get the best player regardless of age." I don't think any argument against that is going to be compelling to me.
