LususV said:
I understand your POV, but I think we could also look back in 5 years after Henry, North, and Treadwell are perennial top-10 startup candidates and say they nailed it ;-)
Those guys have those 'you can't teach that' qualities that all truly elite players have. Sure, they could bust, as many 'star' prospects have before. But I'll take a chance at a superstar over a higher floor/lower ceiling guy.
Do they though? Or are they just highly-recruited players who showed flashes and became overrated because of high visibility and the SEC factor? If North has an identical season at Oregon State and Treadwell has an identical season at Wisconsin, is anyone talking about them right now? Same with Cooper. Nice player. Great player though? Ehhh. Still in question. He's just on a high platform because anything you do at Bama is magnified.
I'm not opposed to drafting for upside. Anyone who knows me knows that. Ironically, I actually took Thomas Tyner in both of my all-class devy leagues last season far higher than his expected draft slot. Even so, I think #3 is a very optimistic ranking right now. Not saying he won't be that good, but basically he has become massively hyped without necessarily showing anything beyond what he showed in high school.
If you want to talk about risk and upside, where are all the freshmen? Personally, I would take Fournette and Chubb over anyone from the Henry, North, and Treadwell group. Maybe that is a bit hard on Treadwell, be he was just a grunt last season. North made a splash with a few highlight reel type grabs. He has the right kind of body for the NFL. Can he run? Can he separate? Still very much in doubt. Probably 60-75% of Henry's hype came from that bowl game when he scored on fairly simple plays. It's not that he doesn't have potential, but lots of players have potential. I'm not sure his prospects are any brighter than the likes of Ezekiel Elliott, Fournette, and Chubb.
I think what happens in the devy community is that a small collection of high-visibility players dominate the spotlight and soak up most of the hype. Sometimes it is justified, but many times their talent is grossly exaggerated compared to the field of players as a whole. It's why I recommend looking at a list like this as a rough starting point rather than taking it as gospel.