False Start
Footballguy
Oof - After a few posts I realized Xue is not very well informed on football information.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Anyone not like Eddie Lacy? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Eminence
- Start date
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Last season I traded Eddie Lacy away in exchance for Keenan Allen and Alfred Morris. I've regretted it ever since.
False Start
Footballguy
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
It didn't matter who was at QB. What matters is who is at WR and what the opposing defense personnel is.
Lacy faced more than 4 DBs 59% of the time and his YPC was a putrid 4.1 https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/04/09/the-impact-of-defensive-packages-on-yards-per-carry/
Chicago held him to 3.1 YPC in the second meeting. Guess what, Rodgers came back for that game. I'm not including the playoff game in my analysis.
Zac Stacy by comparison, faced more than 4 DBs only 19% of the time and his YPC was 3.9.
It's pretty clear Stacy had less to work with and Lacy had a lot more to work with.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's a raw metric, just like YPC. I'd caution against using it as you are. Lacy was widely praised for his rookie performance--and rightfully so. If you're looking for per touch efficiency--trade Lacy for Ellington and call it a day. Actually--trade just about any RB in the NFL for Ellington.
You know better than this.
False Start
Footballguy
Xue
Footballguy
I'm looking for "information" that makes Lacy the outright ROY when he clearly wasn't outright any better than Stacy.
It's not a "raw" metric. Lacy faced a favorable defense on an overwhelming percentage of his carries and only mustered 4.1 YPC.
This isn't about whether or not Lacy was a good Fantasy RB. This is about whether or not he was a good NFL RB, which the award is based on. Unless they changed the name of the award. I mean Knowshon Moreno was probably the Fantasy MVP, but when considering the "information", he wasn't that good. He just got a lot of carries and he got a lot of carries in the redzone/goalline. Let's not kid ourselves here.
If we're talking Fantasy, I wouldn't trade him for Ellington because we all know he isn't going to get the volume of Lacy. But I'd trade Lacy for Ball and some change, though.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Looking at PFF, Lacy had Stacy beat in almost every metric they gather. I'm not sure what you're trying to prove here. There isn't many people outside of the state of Missouri who would agree that Stacy deserved the award over Lacy. Most NFL awards are a joke, including ROTY. Lacy was on a better team, scored more TDs, and looked better doing it, IMO. That's how most of the offensive awards are won.
Xue
Footballguy
Did Lacy beat him in those categories because he played on a better team facing more favorable defenses? Did Lacy score more TDs because he was on a better team that could get close to the goalline more often?
Does it matter how good you look when your YPC is 4.1?
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
the packers will use and abuse lacy and his fused foot for as long as they can. once he breaks down in a year or two he'll be dumped like garbage....all on his cheap ### rookie contract.
False Start
Footballguy
Lacy is a stud, the haters in here need to just deal with it.
As far as Xue, I have never seen a person on this site I disagree with more on every topic he posts. He has an agenda with his posts.
As far as Xue, I have never seen a person on this site I disagree with more on every topic he posts. He has an agenda with his posts.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Yeah I really don't get all the drama. Lacy is a Beast.
jurb26
Footballguy
According to this Lacy faced the 2nd hardest SOS for RBs last year while Stacy faced 16th. http://overtimefantasyfootball.com/runningbackstrengthofschedule.html
On top of that, GB's oline ranked 17th in run blocking while St. L ranked 9th.
https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2014/01/13/2013-offensive-line-rankings/3/
So Lacy had a much tougher road.
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
This isn't baseball. These metrics need to be taken for what they are. In this case--it's an odd mix of two raw stats; not what I would call "advanced"--hence "raw".
There is such a race for the next fancy metric--that's it's all just noise. Spend enough time looking and you'll find the metrics to support every side of every stance you take.
Last edited by a moderator:
jurb26
Footballguy
Some more numbers that pont to Lacy clearly having the better season than Stacy.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/rb
Xue
Footballguy
They don't give you a quantified number as to what 'easy' or 'difficult' means.
O-line rankings are just half the picture. Final YPC figures has as much to do with O-line run-blocking as it does what kind of defensive personnel is on the field in terms of LBs and DBs.
Xue
Footballguy
Do those numbers account for line play and/or defensive personnel?
Did you happen to come across this page: http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ol2013
Green Bay ranks 5th in "least stuffed" percentage. Saint Louis is at 13th. Only a 3% difference, but a difference nonetheless.
Xue
Footballguy
My agenda is to keep others open-minded and not ignorant. Just because I don't like a player means I won't ever own them. Just because I like a player, doesn't mean I think "he's a stud".
Xue
Footballguy
Fair point. Funny thing is, the problem with football analysis is that there actually isn't enough data. And by that I mean the recordation of events aren't detailed enough.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
Lacy going to have a real nice year. Real nice. i expect 1300+ rushing and 10+ tds pretty easily.
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Eddie Lacy - RB - Packers
The Packers want Eddie Lacy to log more snaps than he did last season, "in order to prevent substitutions from slowing down the offense."
The Packers want Lacy "on the field longer," according to beat reporter Rob Demovsky. "We want to get him touches, trying to get him more involved in all aspects of the game," said OC Tom Clements. Demovsky believes an even more complete role could mean more receptions for Lacy, who caught 35 passes as a rookie. Lacy played 60.2 percent of Green Bay's offensive snaps last season.
Source: ESPN.com
Jul 16 - 10:45 PM
unckeyherb
Footballguy
I am very excited about having him on my team. Think he is in for a monster year.
georg013
Footballguy
I had lots of concerns with Lacy coming into the year:
He was out of shape
Franklin was breathing down his neck
The Packers were a pass first team
His running style was too violent
He couldn't catch as well as Sproles
He came from Alabama
His foot was finished
He played in a tough division
He would wear down quickly
He didn't send his mama a Mother's Day card (character issues)
Then something crazy happened. I traded for him and the hate disappeared!
That's just MY story so don't crucify me for it.
He was out of shape
Franklin was breathing down his neck
The Packers were a pass first team
His running style was too violent
He couldn't catch as well as Sproles
He came from Alabama
His foot was finished
He played in a tough division
He would wear down quickly
He didn't send his mama a Mother's Day card (character issues)
Then something crazy happened. I traded for him and the hate disappeared!
That's just MY story so don't crucify me for it.
Bamac
Footballguy
I count 9/13.
cstu
Footballguy
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
Eddie Lacy - RB - Packers
Packers RB coach Sam Gash said he's not worried about preserving Eddie Lacy's health.
Gash has a 230-pound beast and is ready to use him. "This is the NFL, you're not going to play this game until you're 45 or 50," he said. "A lot of people, especially the media, try to make it out, 'He's got to last.' He'll last as long as he's meant to last." Lacy averaged 21.2 touches per game as a rookie, a number that could very well rise as he stays on the field for more third downs. Gash said he's seen no deficiencies at all in Lacy's pass protection.
Source: Green Bay Press-Gazette
Jul 23 - 11:54 AM
Packers RB coach Sam Gash said he's not worried about preserving Eddie Lacy's health.
Gash has a 230-pound beast and is ready to use him. "This is the NFL, you're not going to play this game until you're 45 or 50," he said. "A lot of people, especially the media, try to make it out, 'He's got to last.' He'll last as long as he's meant to last." Lacy averaged 21.2 touches per game as a rookie, a number that could very well rise as he stays on the field for more third downs. Gash said he's seen no deficiencies at all in Lacy's pass protection.
Source: Green Bay Press-Gazette
Jul 23 - 11:54 AM
Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
False Start
Footballguy
If anyone does not like, check that, LOVE Lacy from a fantasy football stand point, this is not the game for you. His upside, offense, youth, talent, and over all ability to play every down since he will get the chance makes him a prototype for who should go #1 at the RB position. He will be the #1 pick in all dynasties this time next year. Book it.
Than again, many people were wrong about him when he came into the league just to win RoY. Now he will prove doubters wrong with an elite season that will make him the best RB in the league and be the top fantasy pick next year.
False Start
Footballguy
I dont like it at all. Stacy is about to be battled and Rice, well we saw the wheels start to come off. The pick is something you only hope will land a player like Lacy, so this trade, I favor the Lacy side, and its not close.
Nero
Footballguy
I know most wouldn't like it, but I have faith in Stacy. It would not surprise me if he is better than Lacy this year. I think Rice will be fine too, but I acquired Pierce just in case.
False Start
Footballguy
Faith is great and all, but it doesnt fix problems or change the truth. People have faith in god and still get cancer and die from it, so faith may give you courage but it doesnt equal results.
Plus, I have to stop listening to things you say now. You just said you wouldnt be surprised if Stacy outperformed Lacy... I think with a straight face.
CowboysHomer
Footballguy
I'm gonna miss him this year, probably gonna get drafted before I can get him. Part of a fun ride for me last year, here was my championship team (and round):
P. Manning (3)
McCoy (1)
Lacy (6)
D. Thomas (2)
K. Allen (14)
J. Thomas (15 - last round)
Seattle D (8)
Don't remember the kicker, and it didn't matter)
Had Moreno in and out of the lineup too, Garcon too.
P. Manning (3)
McCoy (1)
Lacy (6)
D. Thomas (2)
K. Allen (14)
J. Thomas (15 - last round)
Seattle D (8)
Don't remember the kicker, and it didn't matter)
Had Moreno in and out of the lineup too, Garcon too.
Chaka
Footballguy
Shutout
Footballguy
When I read this yesterday, I imagine the feeling I got is like when an old guy going through a mid-life crisis must feel like when some hot 20-something girl flirts with him.
For a coach to come out and say plainly "RBs Run. They don't run forever. We got a good one. We are going to run him." I just get giddy. Not giddy like when they were saying last year in Buffalo that they were going to run Spiller until he left his lunch on the field. Not like that because I never believed it. I don't think SPiller is that kind of back. But I KNOW Lacy is that kind of back and I trust the Packers to be believable.
If you are a Lacy owner, seriously, you have, right now, one of the rarest RB situations to come along in a long time in that you most likely got him cheaper than you should have to start with and he is a legitimate threat to be one of the best backs in the NFL on one of the best teams in the NFL that has been scoring a lot in recent years. Nobody is going to argue Charles, Shady, ADP, and a few others going before him but you might realistically be sitting on the #1 back in ff and not by a little bit.
He could be like last year when the storm brewed for Charles. You just knew if he played all year he was going to lap the field. Lacy might do that this year.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Im curious what you project his receiving stats to be, what you think his TD total will be, and what you think Rodgers TD total will be. When I think of those three scenarios I have trouble with the idea he can even be in the top 5.
He was almost top 5 last year, as a rookie, and he missed (practically) 2 games. In one of those Starks had almost 170 total yards and a TD, and in the other Franklin and Starks combined for over 180 yds and another TD. He can certainly be top 5, I'm expecting it myself.
I don't. GB is going to put up video game 2011 esque numbers this season on offense IMO. Especially if they "emphasize" defensive holding, as per:
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/07/21/get-ready-for-the-legion-of-boom-rule/
Which should open up the passing game even more. I could see easily over 500 points scored, with Rodgers up over 40 passing TD's and Lacy putting together ~1400 rush yards, ~15 TD and catching about 40 passes. Giving how deep they run at WR I'm not sure the extent to which he's going to be a key target in the passing game, but GB should be scoring at least 30 points a week this season. Especially with their RZ problems in 2012 and beginning of last year, I could see Lacy getting even more goaline work than usual as well, if that proves the case knock some of those TD's off the Rodgers tally and push Lacy further up toward 20 on the ground. It's gonna be fun to watch. Remember that McCarthy in his stints as coach has run the *$@& out of his guys if healthy and effective (Lacy to an extent last season, Ryan Grant over 300 carries in 2009, McAllister got 350+ when Mike was OC there).
How many catches Lacy has is dependent on how the WR and TE grouping shakes out, if Finley doesn't actually return or usage remains limited on the new guys they brought in this season I'd bump him.
