KellysHeroes said:
I could see it in dynasty but no way in re-draft; I'm not touching him at his current ADP.
Personally I will never again reach for a 2nd yr back,dynasty or redraft. Been burned too many times.
The bust rate on 2nd year running backs coming off a strong rookie year has got to be the most overlooked thing in fantasy. It's massive, and almost always comes at the expense of a very early pick.
It's interesting that there is a whole saying about "proving it on the field" that people constantly cite in regards to rookie RBs, when 2nd year RBs probably have a higher bust rate than rookies and at a significantly higher cost, no less.
Here's the list of rookie RBs who scored at least 200 fantasy points in the past 20 years. Green had a good second year, black were meh or got injured, red clearly busted.
2013: Eddy Lacy (TBD)
2012: Doug Martin (injured)
2012: Alfred Morris
2012: Trent Richardson
2008: Matt Forte
2008: Chris Johnson (led NFL in rushing)
2008: Steve Slaton
2007: Adrian Peterson (led NFL in rushing)
2006: Maurice Jones-Drew
2004: Willis McGahee
2002: Clinton Portis (led NFL in PPG, missed 3 games)
2001: Ladanian Tomlinson (#3 fantasy RB)
2000: Mike Anderson
1999: Edgerrin James (let NFL in rushing)
1998: Robert Edwards (injured)
1998: Fred Taylor (injured)
1996: Eddie George
1995: Curtis Martin (#4 fantasy RB)
1994: Marshall Faulk (#6 fantasy RB)
So, of that group, four busted, three got injured, three had mediocre second seasons,
and eight had great second seasons. Four are sure-fire Hall of Famers or are already in; most of the others are borderline HoF.
And of the 10 who didn't have great second seasons, at least three of them went on to have great careers (Forte, MJD, Fred Taylor), with the jury still out on three of the others.
So I think the reason this is an overlooked thing in fantasy is that it doesn't exist.
Arbitrary cutoffs aside, I was thinking more along the line of guys that ended up being 1st/2nd round picks. Kevin Jones/Julius Jones were the guys that 1st popped into my head and they're absent from your list.
And I don't think injuries should give these guys a pass. One of the risks in taking a young player like that is that you don't really know their ability to carry the load for 16 games consistently yet (IE Fred Taylor). Not to mention that, as a Doug Martin owner, any list where he wasn't considered a bust last year is one I'm not buying.
ETA: 6 of the 8 "great" seasons were 12+ years ago. Not sure why McGahee is included as he sat out his rookie year.
Bottom line is it looks like, in the last 10 years, of all the 2nd year RBs taken in the 1st round of fantasy drafts, only Adrian Peterson and Chris Johnson had a finish good enough that they didn't lose significant value year over year against Martin, Richardson, Forte, K. Jones, and J. Jones as busts. Morris falls somewhere in the middle but his season was 'meh' enough that he dropped from a late 1st rounder in 2013 to a 3rd rounder in 2014.
So let's say this. Lacy is a mid-1st rounder right now. Of the last 9 second year RBs drafted in that range only 2 had a season good enough that they were still drafted in the 1st or 2nd round the following year.
ETA2: There may be other guys I'm missing as I haven't gone through year by year to find other second year RBs being drafted in the 1st round beyond the guys you listed and the ones I could name off the top of my head.