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2015 Survivor Pool Discussion - Week 2 was Black Sunday! (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Raider Nation
- Start date
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Here's a shock... I changed my mind. Just spent the past hour mapping out how things look for the rest of the season, and I decided this was the spot to use the Cardinals. I also want to use them while they are on fire. Final answer.
Good luck to y'all.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Here's another shock. I cooled off the shitty Cardinals.
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Joined you on AZ. Have one pick remaining (the nail biter with DEN). On to week 5
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I can never get knocked out with a no-doubter beatdown where my team doesn't even show up. Nah... it's always gotta be as painful as possible.
David Johnson fumbles the opening kickoff... StL scores. Down by 2 with under 2:00 left, Arizona has a 2nd & 2 on the Rams side of the field, almost in FG range, and they don't gain another yard.
Weeeeeeeeeeee!
David Johnson fumbles the opening kickoff... StL scores. Down by 2 with under 2:00 left, Arizona has a 2nd & 2 on the Rams side of the field, almost in FG range, and they don't gain another yard.
Weeeeeeeeeeee!
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Taking Ravens off the table as it is a division game, injuries, plus can't put too much stock in their win vs. PIT as it is truly a game they should have lost.
As a Giants homer, I want to take them, but have the battle scars from past Giants survivor picks to know that my picking them leads to a nailbiter. But still thinking about it as SF has looked bad and the whole "West Coast team coming east" routine.
Other options not mentioned are ATL home vs WSH. 'Skins have looked reasonable lately and ATL can't be as good as they have shown, can they? (This one has shades of AZ last week...look unbeatable prior to game against STL).
KC, while matched up against CHI, has really shown nothing to me. Hate losing by picked a bad team against another bad team. Does the home crowd carry them? We all know Cutler can look horrible, but he can equally pull the rabbit out of his hat.
As a Giants homer, I want to take them, but have the battle scars from past Giants survivor picks to know that my picking them leads to a nailbiter. But still thinking about it as SF has looked bad and the whole "West Coast team coming east" routine.
Other options not mentioned are ATL home vs WSH. 'Skins have looked reasonable lately and ATL can't be as good as they have shown, can they? (This one has shades of AZ last week...look unbeatable prior to game against STL).
KC, while matched up against CHI, has really shown nothing to me. Hate losing by picked a bad team against another bad team. Does the home crowd carry them? We all know Cutler can look horrible, but he can equally pull the rabbit out of his hat.
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
So what do we have this week?
MIN @ home vs KC - liking this with MIN at home plus KC trying to reconfigure with Charles on IR
GB @ home vs SD - seems like this will be the chalk pick of the week
SEA @ home vs CAR - would appear to be low scoring slug fest. Can Carolina muster enough O to pull the upset?
NYJ vs WAS - would expect this to be another popular pick, but one that has upset written all over it (NYJ karma, @ WAS, Skins D not playing badly). Can Cousins stand up the Jets D?
NE @ IND - Deflategate revenge game...if I had NE, would be a consideration, as I see BB putting the pedal to the metal.
What say ye, FBGs?
On other front, from a strategy perspective, when do you switch from future value view to simply best matchup? I am in a pool that started with 6500 entries, but is now down to appx. 300, so trying to figure out if I should still be zigging (say, MIN) when others zag (say, GB) or just take the closest to "no brainer" pick and let the chips fall where they may.
MIN @ home vs KC - liking this with MIN at home plus KC trying to reconfigure with Charles on IR
GB @ home vs SD - seems like this will be the chalk pick of the week
SEA @ home vs CAR - would appear to be low scoring slug fest. Can Carolina muster enough O to pull the upset?
NYJ vs WAS - would expect this to be another popular pick, but one that has upset written all over it (NYJ karma, @ WAS, Skins D not playing badly). Can Cousins stand up the Jets D?
NE @ IND - Deflategate revenge game...if I had NE, would be a consideration, as I see BB putting the pedal to the metal.
What say ye, FBGs?
On other front, from a strategy perspective, when do you switch from future value view to simply best matchup? I am in a pool that started with 6500 entries, but is now down to appx. 300, so trying to figure out if I should still be zigging (say, MIN) when others zag (say, GB) or just take the closest to "no brainer" pick and let the chips fall where they may.
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fantasy stud
Footballguy
I feel decent about Minnesota. At home, coming off a bye. Kc without Charles. Can't imagine Alex smith capable of putting them on his back. My other pick I entertained was Denver at Cleveland, but without ware, no thanks. Also, Denver has won 2 games without scoring an offensive td. They are due to get unlucky one week
Interseptopus
Footballguy
This has been a useful tool for me to determine future value
http://www.survivorgrid.com
According to yahoo, GB is the top pick followed by DEN, NYJ, NE, MIN
Gb has some of the best future value of all of those.
MIN has the worst future value.
GB- seems like the safe pick. I can't see a scenario where SD wins in GB that doesn't involve Rodgers' legs falling off
DEN- their O has looked so bad, and Cleveland actually has looked okay. Both are coming off of rather emotional wins. As mentioned above, denvers luck has to run out at some point
NYJ- this is a tough game to pick. Washington looks good. I just don't see it... I would actually consider taking Washington to beat the 6 point spread
NE- I would imagine most people have used NE by now, but if not this is a tempting game. I feel like NE might have their work cut out for them though
MIN- two weeks to prepare, at home, KC lost Charles and even before he went down they didn't look too great. This is a really tempting game
Sea- I really don't think this is even worth considering. Seattle has looked bad. They've beaten Detroit and Chicago (barely)... Lost to three playoff caliber teams and now faces another who has had two weeks to prepare for them.
Overall I think GB is the safest pick, but MIN is likely the smartest pick for the week. NE if you still have them but I think you can save them for a better matchup down the road. I wouldn't consider Denver, Seattle, New York Jets
http://www.survivorgrid.com
According to yahoo, GB is the top pick followed by DEN, NYJ, NE, MIN
Gb has some of the best future value of all of those.
MIN has the worst future value.
GB- seems like the safe pick. I can't see a scenario where SD wins in GB that doesn't involve Rodgers' legs falling off
DEN- their O has looked so bad, and Cleveland actually has looked okay. Both are coming off of rather emotional wins. As mentioned above, denvers luck has to run out at some point
NYJ- this is a tough game to pick. Washington looks good. I just don't see it... I would actually consider taking Washington to beat the 6 point spread
NE- I would imagine most people have used NE by now, but if not this is a tempting game. I feel like NE might have their work cut out for them though
MIN- two weeks to prepare, at home, KC lost Charles and even before he went down they didn't look too great. This is a really tempting game
Sea- I really don't think this is even worth considering. Seattle has looked bad. They've beaten Detroit and Chicago (barely)... Lost to three playoff caliber teams and now faces another who has had two weeks to prepare for them.
Overall I think GB is the safest pick, but MIN is likely the smartest pick for the week. NE if you still have them but I think you can save them for a better matchup down the road. I wouldn't consider Denver, Seattle, New York Jets
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Square
Footballguy
I'm going to take the Vikings this week. I still have the Packers available and they don't have much value for the next 3 weeks after that, but If I get far enough they should be a safe pic later. I'm intrigued by the Seahawks pick but I think I'm going to stay away this week.
I've lost a lot of suicide pools on "smartest picks". I'm playing it safe and going GB.
shady inc
Footballguy
I think the seahawks may not be as good as their record, and they're 2-3 (although should be 1-4 with the non-call in the lions game). Going from East coast to West coast has far less impact than the other way around. Cam been playing out of his mind lately. I agree, the seahawks probably win, but i'm avoiding.
shady inc
Footballguy
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Did the same and, of course, have "buyers remorse" as it would have been nice to hold onto them for later in the season. But...on to week 7!
Interseptopus
Footballguy
The game I was the most passionate about for not picking was Seattle and I'm glad I was right on that.KC gave the game away and I'm happy for that. Still having GB left is huge. Most of the people left in my pool took Denver or GB, so that'll be nice to have both later in the season assuming I make it that farBig Blue Wrecking Crew said:
Week 7...
NE vs nyj - probably the best D they will have faced all year. If you still have NE left this is probably a no brainer for you. For the rest of us it's not an option!
Sea @ SF - this is a pretty good pick. Seattle coming off of a tough loss to Carolina. Sf coming off of an emotional win. If this was in Seattle I'd be more likely to like this pick, but I have reservations based off of everything I said for week 6. Seattle is not that good, but they can't be worse than SF right?
Wash vs Tb - a tough game to pick. TB on the road vs a pretty good Washington team, but TB has had two weeks to prepare
NYG vs Dal - again, a team coming off of a bye. They are going to trot out q new qb and new rb. I have to think the giants are the team to pick here
AZ vs BAL- Baltimore doesn't look real good in general and Arizona has a pretty good defense
PIT vs KC - if Big Ben plays I think this would be a great pick, but if it's a street qb starting then I don't know how anyone can like that matchup.
As far as me, I'm leaning NYG over SEA. The Giants don't hold much long term value IMO after this week. I will wait and see. It's a toughweek and I think the field will be trimmed big time unless you have NE left
Hopefully more people here who made it through week 6 and we can discuss options
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Agreed... I like to avoid that but I feel like that's all we are left with
Miami over Houston is intriguing but I'm gun shy after Miami screwed me week 2 (double elimination league)
fantasy stud
Footballguy
I'm loving Arizona. They will be angry after the defeat, fired up because it is a home prime time game. Enter an opponent that can't have too much fight left in them after back to back losses to Cleveland and San Francisco. More importantly, Baltimore's secondary is awful and Arizona can throw it with the best of them. I just a see a blowout here.
I'd want to see at least one more week of that before putting my chips on an interim coach with a 2-3 team. Plus Hopkins is always capable of winning a game all by himself.
My options are Arizona, Buffalo (only if Taylor plays), Pittsburgh and Washington, in that order. Probably play it safe and go AZ. Baltimore is a dumpster fire, and Palmer could hang 50 on that D.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
AZ for me too
Hurl Bruce
Footballguy
Arizona for me. I hate waiting for Monday, though.
last minute changed to stl.
survived.
GL to those that took arizona.
next week looks like another tough one.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
I should have taken stl! And Az next week... Clevelands looked up and down though. We will see...
Assuming I make it through tonight, here are my thoughts for this upcoming week.
I know I’m feeling the pinch of taking some rather more obvious picks in recent weeks, makes this week tough.
NE vs MIA: This is a great game to pick if for some reason you still have NE left. Miami looks better however, but NE looks unstoppable
SEA @ DAL: Dallas, somehow, is staying in games with such terrible QB play. They have played better than their record shows. SEA on the other hand has played worse than their record shows- beating 3 bad teams and losing to three playoff caliber teams. This game is available for me to pick, but it’s a tough one to pull the trigger on.
ARI @ CLE: This is a great pick if you still have ARI left. McCown could be out. Of,you have AZ I think you have to take this game.
STL vs SF: This may be the game I pick… but I hate picking divisional games. STL looks great with Gurley and SF is not looking good at all. I can't imagine SF winning this game with how good STL played
ATL vs TB: I don’t know many people with ATL left, but if you do I think this is a lock
KC vs DET: Stafford might have a broken hand. KC looked better last week. DET is just plain bad. Not sure I like this one much but if you're in a bind...
OAK vs NYJ: This seems like a tough game to pick but Oakland, I feel, is much better than people give them credit for. NY has a great defense however. Again, another tough one to pick. I'm kind of reaching at games based on the spread.
Any other games?
At the end of the day, off this list at least, I’m stuck with SEA or STL. I’m liking STL the most out of that list. If I can just get through week 8 I feel like I have a legitimate shot at taking the whole thing as I've got some decent teams left, especially gb
Assuming I make it through tonight, here are my thoughts for this upcoming week.
I know I’m feeling the pinch of taking some rather more obvious picks in recent weeks, makes this week tough.
NE vs MIA: This is a great game to pick if for some reason you still have NE left. Miami looks better however, but NE looks unstoppable
SEA @ DAL: Dallas, somehow, is staying in games with such terrible QB play. They have played better than their record shows. SEA on the other hand has played worse than their record shows- beating 3 bad teams and losing to three playoff caliber teams. This game is available for me to pick, but it’s a tough one to pull the trigger on.
ARI @ CLE: This is a great pick if you still have ARI left. McCown could be out. Of,you have AZ I think you have to take this game.
STL vs SF: This may be the game I pick… but I hate picking divisional games. STL looks great with Gurley and SF is not looking good at all. I can't imagine SF winning this game with how good STL played
ATL vs TB: I don’t know many people with ATL left, but if you do I think this is a lock
KC vs DET: Stafford might have a broken hand. KC looked better last week. DET is just plain bad. Not sure I like this one much but if you're in a bind...
OAK vs NYJ: This seems like a tough game to pick but Oakland, I feel, is much better than people give them credit for. NY has a great defense however. Again, another tough one to pick. I'm kind of reaching at games based on the spread.
Any other games?
At the end of the day, off this list at least, I’m stuck with SEA or STL. I’m liking STL the most out of that list. If I can just get through week 8 I feel like I have a legitimate shot at taking the whole thing as I've got some decent teams left, especially gb
Looks like it will be over one way or another tonight.Week 2 destroyed a lot of the Eliminator excitement for the season, sadly. There are still two people battling it out in the FBG group on ESPN.com. tangfoot and espn71382553 (who technically may have cheated by having multiple entries to circumvent the Week 2 disaster). They've been in lockstep with one another the past two weeks so it'll be interesting to see whether that remains the case for Week 4 as well.Jeez...everyone eliminated already?
Leaning DEN or SD, as they both have pretty tough home schedules the remainder of the way (if you are of the mind to avoid division games). While IND seems the no brainer, their performance plus Luck being dinged makes me think JAX has a puncher's chance to win (maybe it is because I have Yeldon and am hoping for a breakout game from him...)
shady inc
Footballguy
I'd want to see at least one more week of that before putting my chips on an interim coach with a 2-3 team. Plus Hopkins is always capable of winning a game all by himself.
I think STL is definitely the play. The "no divisional game" rule should have an exception for the Rams. They blow plenty of games outside the division, but they always seem to come up big vs the West. And that line will murder Kaepernick.
AZ is also a good pick (I'm using them tonight). I can't fathom Dallas beating Seattle, but I also think the Seahawks are that classic team where people are slow to realize how much they've fallen off. I used them in the Detroit game and barely escaped. After the SF game, everyone will just assume they're back, but I still think they have lots of problems. If you haven't already used them, I'd stay away for as long as humanly possible.
Were you suggesting picking Oakland or the Jets? The former is absolutely crazy, the latter is just ill-advised. I think NY probably wins, but I'd be loath to pick against Oakland this year. They've probably bounced more people from survivor pools than any other team.
Finally, are you seriously suggesting that anyone pick KC in a survivor pool?
Yeah, I believe now. At a minimum, they should be safe against bad teams. Only problem, if you haven't already used them, is that they don't have a lot of gimmes left. @PHI in week 10? Ravens in Week 13? @SD in 15? I used them in Week 1, but if I hadn't, those would be the only match-ups I'd feel comfortable using them in going forward.
I'd want to see at least one more week of that before putting my chips on an interim coach with a 2-3 team. Plus Hopkins is always capable of winning a game all by himself.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Lol. I was suggesting Oakland. And yes, if in a bind KC has a +4 line, which is why I put them on here.zftcg said:I think STL is definitely the play. The "no divisional game" rule should have an exception for the Rams. They blow plenty of games outside the division, but they always seem to come up big vs the West. And that line will murder Kaepernick.Dr. Brew said:
AZ is also a good pick (I'm using them tonight). I can't fathom Dallas beating Seattle, but I also think the Seahawks are that classic team where people are slow to realize how much they've fallen off. I used them in the Detroit game and barely escaped. After the SF game, everyone will just assume they're back, but I still think they have lots of problems. If you haven't already used them, I'd stay away for as long as humanly possible.
Were you suggesting picking Oakland or the Jets? The former is absolutely crazy, the latter is just ill-advised. I think NY probably wins, but I'd be loath to pick against Oakland this year. They've probably bounced more people from survivor pools than any other team.
Finally, are you seriously suggesting that anyone pick KC in a survivor pool?
You are right, stl does well vs the west and I'm likely going with them
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Whew. On to next week
fantasy stud
Footballguy
Not so sure Atlanta is a lock. They have played 3 straight bad games and the Bucs offense has been clicking the last 2 weeks. I'm avoiding this one. I'm going St. Louis all dayLol. I was suggesting Oakland. And yes, if in a bind KC has a +4 line, which is why I put them on here.zftcg said:I think STL is definitely the play. The "no divisional game" rule should have an exception for the Rams. They blow plenty of games outside the division, but they always seem to come up big vs the West. And that line will murder Kaepernick.Dr. Brew said:
AZ is also a good pick (I'm using them tonight). I can't fathom Dallas beating Seattle, but I also think the Seahawks are that classic team where people are slow to realize how much they've fallen off. I used them in the Detroit game and barely escaped. After the SF game, everyone will just assume they're back, but I still think they have lots of problems. If you haven't already used them, I'd stay away for as long as humanly possible.
Were you suggesting picking Oakland or the Jets? The former is absolutely crazy, the latter is just ill-advised. I think NY probably wins, but I'd be loath to pick against Oakland this year. They've probably bounced more people from survivor pools than any other team.
Finally, are you seriously suggesting that anyone pick KC in a survivor pool?
You are right, stl does well vs the west and I'm likely going with them
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Now is the fun part of year where you need to map out your future picks to see your options. For me, STL the best pick remaining, but also have them slotted for wk 10 vs CHI. Could use CIN vs HOU that week, but that leaves me relying on IND vs TB rather than CIN vs STL in Week 12. Had ATL slotted for this week, but agreed with the comments above that they have fallen off from their hot start, plus it is a division game in the NFC South, which always seems to have wacky outcomes. On the flip side, their last two weeks have been on the road, where I am always loathe to take them, so maybe a little home cookin' gets them back on track.
If you have them, NE and ARI are the standouts. Probably will toggle between ATL and STL all week here.
If you have them, NE and ARI are the standouts. Probably will toggle between ATL and STL all week here.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
For me:Week 8 STL vs SF
Week 9 CIN vs CLE... Or considering saving CIN and taking NYJ over JAX but JAX looks good
Week 10 GB vs DET or CIN over HOU
Week 11 Sea vs SF or PHI vs TB or GB over MIN (that's away for gb though and min is tough at home)
Week 12 IND vs TB or GB over CHI
To be honest I'm not sure I will need to make it to week 12. This might be over for me week 10 or 11. I'm pretty sure when I have to play GB that'll be my victory... Everyone else has used them
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Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Here is my path:
Wk 8: ATL v TB (division game, but next best option (STL v SF) is the same)
Wk 9: SD v CHI (CIN v CLE division game; NYJ used)
Wk 10: STL v CHI (another reason to save STL); GB used
Wk 11: CAR v WSH or PHL v TB
Wk 12:IND v TB or CIN v STL
235 left in the pool, so not sure if it goes this far. Starting week 13, depending on number of entries alive, they start double picks. All bets are off there, so hoping the winner (me...
) emerges sooner than thatInterseptopus
Footballguy
Wow you've got some great teams left... I've used ATL, SD, CAR already... Only 7 of us left. 6 have STL open this week, the 7th has AZ. I imagine if we pick the obvious choice we all advance. CIN seems like an obvious choice next week but like you said it's divisional... I could also take PIT over OAK but with how great Carr is playing I'm not sure that's an obvious choice. After week 9 it really tightens down in my league which is why I think it's going to be decided by week 10 or 11 in my pool.Here is my path:
Wk 8: ATL v TB (division game, but next best option (STL v SF) is the same)
Wk 9: SD v CHI (CIN v CLE division game; NYJ used)
Wk 10: STL v CHI (another reason to save STL); GB used
Wk 11: CAR v WSH or PHL v TB
Wk 12:IND v TB or CIN v STL
235 left in the pool, so not sure if it goes this far. Starting week 13, depending on number of entries alive, they start double picks. All bets are off there, so hoping the winner (me...
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Considering that I have never made it far enough in a survivor pool to be out of good options late in the season, I'm just playing it super conservative this year and not trying to plan ahead too much. I'm trying to preserve GB and NE as long as I can, but if there are no other options I feel super confident about, I'll use them without hesitation.
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
Big Blue Wrecking Crew
downsized
One other one to raise is CAR v IND. Indy is a bit of a cornered dog, but not sure they are prepared to deal with CAR D at home. Only issue for me is it leaves me PHL v TB in Week 12...really hard to read the tea leaves on Philly.
shady inc
Footballguy
I agree on Carolina this week, but don't like waiting til monday night haha
shady inc
Footballguy
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