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Stock Thread (16 Viewers)

fantasycurse42 said:
It's almost too late for the dollar portion, Euro getting crushed - We could see parity between the Euro/Dollar for the first time in 14 years very soon. Pound has been getting slaughtered too since Brexit, it caught a momentary reprieve from the Parliament Article 50 intervention, but it hasn't been able to continue on that momentum and might resume the downtrend too. Yen is the only major currency holding up okay (still down almost 10% since September, but in historical comparisons, holding up okay), but honestly I think the first domino in the loss of confidence in Central Banks will hit Kuroda/Japan and could open the floodgates. They admitted their current track wasn't working back in September and changed gears trying to steepen the long end of the curve.

Right now the banks are euphoric since they'll basically be controlling DC and I think a rally can continue - I just think there is a decent chance we're setting ourselves up for a real crash in the coming 12-24 months.




3
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so rebalancing a portfolio more into gold or bonds would be a good call, yeah?

 
saintfool said:
so rebalancing a portfolio more into gold or bonds would be a good call, yeah?
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These things always overshoot and both are getting slaughtered, could get much worse before better. 

I've got cash and I've got one of the best day-traders I've ever seen handling another account. We actually start next week, he wanted a standard 2 & 20 and based off of what I've watched him do in the last 4 months, I think (hope) he will be worth every penny. 

 
I'd like to put some of my Roth $ that I have on the sidelines into gold and silver. Any recommendations for a tax free account?

 
fantasycurse42 said:
http://fortune.com/2016/11/17/trump-facebook-amazon-netflix-google-stock-jeffrey-gundlach/

I don't listen to many talking heads, but I've mentioned Gundlach as my favorite in here before. Nothing really in the article to make me run and sell, but this guy has been good at nailing calls, last one he made that was on point was the bottom for rates earlier in the year. 
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Thanks for sharing.  I've seen him interviewed numerous times and he does seem to be right more often than not.

 
Gold at a 9-month low. I moved 20% of my retirement money into GLD today. I have to say I fear, bigly, a Trump presidency and feel more at ease after making this move. Also considering a big move out of stocks where about 60% of my money resides. Maybe as soon as next week. i need some time to process. Still not sure what to make of the new world order, and I know I'm not alone.

 
pecorino said:
Gold at a 9-month low. I moved 20% of my retirement money into GLD today. I have to say I fear, bigly, a Trump presidency and feel more at ease after making this move. Also considering a big move out of stocks where about 60% of my money resides. Maybe as soon as next week. i need some time to process. Still not sure what to make of the new world order, and I know I'm not alone.
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Yeah I've been considering adding to my silver hoard.

 
pecorino said:
Gold at a 9-month low. I moved 20% of my retirement money into GLD today. I have to say I fear, bigly, a Trump presidency and feel more at ease after making this move. Also considering a big move out of stocks where about 60% of my money resides. Maybe as soon as next week. i need some time to process. Still not sure what to make of the new world order, and I know I'm not alone.




 
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How are the prepper shed & supplies coming?

 
Binky The Doormat said:
How are the prepper shed & supplies coming?
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Actually, I nibbled into GLD as well. Never bought gold before, but these are interesting times. I feel there's way less risk in gold than most stocks, looking at the next couple of years.

 
NREC34 said:
If they raise interest rates it ought to hurt gold. 
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Hmm, 

"

HSBC’s Global Research team published research showing that the price of gold has increased after the last four Fed rate hikes.

History shows that gold prices also fall leading into a rate hike and generally rise, though sometimes with a lag, after the first rate hike… Investors are apt to unload gold in anticipation of tightening monetary policies. This negative pressure is sustained until the Fed announces a rate hike, which then eases the negative sentiment towards the yellow-metal. This explains the subsequent rallies in gold that occurred shortly after the Fed announced the first rate hike in the last four tightening cycles."

 
NREC34 said:
If they raise interest rates it ought to hurt gold. 
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The market forces that move gold are incredibly complex. It isn't an industrial metal (mostly) like silver or copper.  It moves in odd ways due to interest rates, currencies, and world events.  Incredibly volatile - scariest market next to dry bulk shipping. 

Other than hoping to find a massive nugget in the desert I just gaze on the pet rock that I'll never own.  Too hard, way too hard.

 
For me, I'm just looking for places to park my money. I don't want bonds due to rising interest rates. I don't want more stocks but actually less because we now have a fraud and a dolt soon to be running the country, and I am not savvy enough to dabble in currencies. What else is a novice investor to due? GLD it is.

 
pecorino said:
For me, I'm just looking for places to park my money. I don't want bonds due to rising interest rates. I don't want more stocks but actually less because we now have a fraud and a dolt soon to be running the country, and I am not savvy enough to dabble in currencies. What else is a novice investor to due? GLD it is.
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Limited duration treasuries, corporate bonds, munis.  

And TIPs.  Don't forget those.

 
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Might just go defensive with a Vanguard ETF of Consumer Staples. I hate being in cash for the end-of-days, but people are always going to need diapers and toothpaste, right? 

 
lod001 said:
So your plan is to totally miss the Trump rally?
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No, I was 60% stocks (Vanguard Index and Dividend) and 40% cash. Just put half my cash into gold. I would prefer to invest most of the rest of the cash--that's what I'm considering for the Consumer Staples ETF. Long, long term I am bearish because of Trump and because I think the markets are overbought. I'm not comfortable with so much in the market but it seems like the place to be for now. 

 
pecorino said:
No, I was 60% stocks (Vanguard Index and Dividend) and 40% cash. Just put half my cash into gold. I would prefer to invest most of the rest of the cash--that's what I'm considering for the Consumer Staples ETF. Long, long term I am bearish because of Trump and because I think the markets are overbought. I'm not comfortable with so much in the market but it seems like the place to be for now. 
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I agree with your sentiments. It looks like we'll see a mini rally, but really, how much farther does it continue before we suffer the consequences of an inept leader? That being said, these markets have been propped up artificially so long, who knows when the party comes to a grinding halt. 

 
skycriesmary said:
I agree with your sentiments. It looks like we'll see a mini rally, but really, how much farther does it continue before we suffer the consequences of an inept leader? That being said, these markets have been propped up artificially so long, who knows when the party comes to a grinding halt. 
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Somewhere between 2500 & 2600 on the S&P by the end of 2017.

 
Sebastian found that right after President-elect Donald Trump 's surprise victory, the VIX fell as the market climbed. That was a sign that investors believe in the rally, and it isn't finished yet.

This is the same pattern that has dominated all year. As the volatility falls and the market rallies, things will continue to go well. It happened in the rally from February to June this year.

As long as the volatility index declines, Sebastian thinks the rally is worth believing in. However, if the VIX starts to rise as stocks go higher, that is a sign to start worrying, he said.

When the VIX and the market move in the same direction, it typically means that the market is about to change course.

Things looked even brighter when Sebastian took a look at the VVIX (^VVIX), which measures the volatility of the volatility index itself. Sebastian discovered that after the election, the VIX actually dropped much faster than the VVIX. That suggested to him that large institutional money managers weren't buying into the rally.

However, in the past week, the VVIX has fallen dramatically. To Sebastian, this confirmed that the Trump rally has staying power.

A pullback would help as people who missed this will jump in.

 
The upcoming week should be straightforward and provide us guidance as to whether we are now in melt-up mode, or if a pullback can still be seen. Should we see the market gap up Monday, (DID NOT HAPPEN :thumbup: )and not break down below 2203SPX, then we are likely on our way to the 2240SPX region in the dark green wave (3) of iii of 3 of (iii).As you can see, it means that we are heading to the 2280-2300SPX region for wave 3 of (iii), which will likely be struck in December.

But if the market is able to break below 2203SPX on Monday, (CHECK) then it still leaves the door open for a more protracted pullback ( :popcorn: ) before we begin that run to 2280-2300.

Overall, the market is still setting up quite nicely for the major rally we expect into 2017.

 
Anyone going in big to short oil? OPEC is a scam. They won't cut production much, if at all. After hours, oil is dipping based on the above, along with concerns that the glut won't diminish, especially due to increased shale production. I know it's a dicey play, But oil has run up so much. I don't see it going up much higher at this point. The fundamentals are the same. 

UWTI and DWTI (3x) delist Dec 8, so it's the UCO/SCO (2x) show, Who's on board for some SCO? Make some easy Christmas money over the next few weeks?

 
NajehHejan said:
Anyone going in big to short oil? OPEC is a scam. They won't cut production much, if at all. After hours, oil is dipping based on the above, along with concerns that the glut won't diminish, especially due to increased shale production. I know it's a dicey play, But oil has run up so much. I don't see it going up much higher at this point. The fundamentals are the same. 

UWTI and DWTI (3x) delist Dec 8, so it's the UCO/SCO (2x) show, Who's on board for some SCO? Make some easy Christmas money over the next few weeks?
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Why not? In at opening bell for 10.74

@St. Louis Bob treated this stock like an ATM before the oil bust

 
NajehHejan said:
Anyone going in big to short oil? OPEC is a scam. They won't cut production much, if at all. After hours, oil is dipping based on the above, along with concerns that the glut won't diminish, especially due to increased shale production. I know it's a dicey play, But oil has run up so much. I don't see it going up much higher at this point. The fundamentals are the same. 

UWTI and DWTI (3x) delist Dec 8, so it's the UCO/SCO (2x) show, Who's on board for some SCO? Make some easy Christmas money over the next few weeks?
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I caught that ride from 47 to 52, I'm sidelines for now. 

Own some NG $3.50 March calls, I'd highly recommend these to everyone.

 
fantasycurse42 said:
I caught that ride from 47 to 52, I'm sidelines for now. 

Own some NG $3.50 March calls, I'd highly recommend these to everyone.
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Re: $CMG.  If $355ish level breaks and hold below that for more than a couple of days I think it opens the possibility of the floodgates opening up. I'm not sure where the support is below that...$250- maybe way lower than that ---$50?  Not sure  It's in big trouble for sure if that happens. 

$NG.  It's less than $5.  No need to waste effort on using options to take a long position.  If you can afford the $3 calls you can afford to buy the shares outright.

 
siffoin said:
Re: $CMG.  If $355ish level breaks and hold below that for more than a couple of days I think it opens the possibility of the floodgates opening up. I'm not sure where the support is below that...$250- maybe way lower than that ---$50?  Not sure  It's in big trouble for sure if that happens. 

$NG.  It's less than $5.  No need to waste effort on using options to take a long position.  If you can afford the $3 calls you can afford to buy the shares outright.
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Sorry, Natural Gas.

I'm debating getting back on the CMG short train too.

 
I'm really loathe to recommend any stock here.  But for a couple of years I've been adding $OPK to my portfolio.  My cost basis is pretty low because I have been fortunate to write puts correctly over and over.  Phillip Frost is the CEO.  He's a billionaire.  Was CEO of Key Pharmaceuticals till it was sold to Schering-Plough and his take was $100m.  He then took over Ivax till it was sold to Teva Pharma.  He then became CEO of Teva and held that position till 2015.   For years Frost buys shares of $OPK on the open market almost every single day and owns more than 30% of the company- he's also ranked in the Top 25 (out of more than 35000 insiders) for profitable insider buying.  All things being equal- I'd rather place my bets on the side of a successful billionaire who is doing the same thing every day.  $OPK's Rayaldee  is a new 2016 approved drug that treats people who have Vitamin D deficiency with chronic kidney disease - a market of about 9 million Americans.  They also have the 4-Score test to determine prostate cancer - much more reliable than having a biopsy. I think their pipeline is growing and revenues will reflect that positively over the coming quarters. Technically the stock is in a pretty young bull trend (since 11/25).  The dip toward $10 last week may have been THE dip.  I'm not sure. It's a lot easier for me to predict downside support than future upside.  The technical setup is a stock breaking out and up from a very long basing level- it's like a hanging slider -a potential homerun setup.  I think there is a good chance this is going towards $20 on this trend.  By 2020, I think this stock is $30.  For practical purposes - Buy 50% tranche here at $11.25 and another 50% at $10.25 with a stop at $8.70 and a target of $19+.  So risk $1 to make $3+. (you could also write the Jan $11 Puts for $.55 to put cost basis at $10.45 - but if this moves up aggressively you miss out)

 
siffoin said:
I'm really loathe to recommend any stock here.  But for a couple of years I've been adding $OPK to my portfolio.  My cost basis is pretty low because I have been fortunate to write puts correctly over and over.  Phillip Frost is the CEO.  He's a billionaire.  Was CEO of Key Pharmaceuticals till it was sold to Schering-Plough and his take was $100m.  He then took over Ivax till it was sold to Teva Pharma.  He then became CEO of Teva and held that position till 2015.   For years Frost buys shares of $OPK on the open market almost every single day and owns more than 30% of the company- he's also ranked in the Top 25 (out of more than 35000 insiders) for profitable insider buying.  All things being equal- I'd rather place my bets on the side of a successful billionaire who is doing the same thing every day.  $OPK's Rayaldee  is a new 2016 approved drug that treats people who have Vitamin D deficiency with chronic kidney disease - a market of about 9 million Americans.  They also have the 4-Score test to determine prostate cancer - much more reliable than having a biopsy. I think their pipeline is growing and revenues will reflect that positively over the coming quarters. Technically the stock is in a pretty young bull trend (since 11/25).  The dip toward $10 last week may have been THE dip.  I'm not sure. It's a lot easier for me to predict downside support than future upside.  The technical setup is a stock breaking out and up from a very long basing level- it's like a hanging slider -a potential homerun setup.  I think there is a good chance this is going towards $20 on this trend.  By 2020, I think this stock is $30.  For practical purposes - Buy 50% tranche here at $11.25 and another 50% at $10.25 with a stop at $8.70 and a target of $19+.  So risk $1 to make $3+. (you could also write the Jan $11 Puts for $.55 to put cost basis at $10.45 - but if this moves up aggressively you miss out)
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I can see why you don't want to reccomend anything but I'm going to take a small position.  I don't plan on buying anything else until after inauguration day unless I can get a good price on AMZN or GOOGL that is. 

 
Got a friend who had 80,000 shares of nvcn and was telling me I ought to buy over the weekend. 

No dry powder. 

I want to hit one like that someday and quit my job.  :cry:

 
NREC34 said:
Got a friend who had 80,000 shares of nvcn and was telling me I ought to buy over the weekend. 

No dry powder. 

I want to hit one like that someday and quit my job.  :cry:
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I bet he wishes he had 80000 shares 4 years ago and sold on Feb. 1 2015. Adding that one to my Pump and Dump watch list.

 
siffoin said:
"It's Different This Time"

Will be one of the most popular catch phrases of the next 4 years. 

Go you Orange God!
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Business cycle is still intact.  I'm still 90% invested.  

But, if the Orange God puts me over the top I'll be a Trumpster for life.  As I'm sipping Mai Tais on the beach.

 
siffoin said:
I'm really loathe to recommend any stock here.  But for a couple of years I've been adding $OPK to my portfolio.  My cost basis is pretty low because I have been fortunate to write puts correctly over and over.  Phillip Frost is the CEO.  He's a billionaire.  Was CEO of Key Pharmaceuticals till it was sold to Schering-Plough and his take was $100m.  He then took over Ivax till it was sold to Teva Pharma.  He then became CEO of Teva and held that position till 2015.   For years Frost buys shares of $OPK on the open market almost every single day and owns more than 30% of the company- he's also ranked in the Top 25 (out of more than 35000 insiders) for profitable insider buying.  All things being equal- I'd rather place my bets on the side of a successful billionaire who is doing the same thing every day.  $OPK's Rayaldee  is a new 2016 approved drug that treats people who have Vitamin D deficiency with chronic kidney disease - a market of about 9 million Americans.  They also have the 4-Score test to determine prostate cancer - much more reliable than having a biopsy. I think their pipeline is growing and revenues will reflect that positively over the coming quarters. Technically the stock is in a pretty young bull trend (since 11/25).  The dip toward $10 last week may have been THE dip.  I'm not sure. It's a lot easier for me to predict downside support than future upside.  The technical setup is a stock breaking out and up from a very long basing level- it's like a hanging slider -a potential homerun setup.  I think there is a good chance this is going towards $20 on this trend.  By 2020, I think this stock is $30.  For practical purposes - Buy 50% tranche here at $11.25 and another 50% at $10.25 with a stop at $8.70 and a target of $19+.  So risk $1 to make $3+. (you could also write the Jan $11 Puts for $.55 to put cost basis at $10.45 - but if this moves up aggressively you miss out)
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I rode by Mr. Frost's mansion a couple weeks back. He has a huge mansion on one of the islands off of Miami Beach. The duck tour I was on said it was one of, or the highest, priciest residential properties in the area.

 
Wondering how everyone's 401k is doing? Assume we're all up on the year... I did some rebalancing at the start of the year, currently up about 11% for 2016, think my rebalancing was great, curious how it stacks up in here?

I was fully invested in VFIFX (Vanguard 2050 Fund), after expenses YTD would've been up 8.7%, so I'm beating the fund by 2.3%

This is my current split

Curious if anyone can share how they have theirs balanced?

 
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