fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I wouldnt give anything to move from Wilson to Rodgers. In a dynasty, they are interchangeable to me.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (19 Viewers)
- Thread starter spider321
- Start date
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I'd do that all day long. I've never bought into White so this one's easy for me. White = any 2nd, Ingram = 1.12 and a 2nd, so you're paying a 2nd to upgrade. Instant accept for me.
I agree with this. Wilson is a top-5 dynasty qb, but I still have Rodgers as a top-2. Worth a reasonable price like this to upgrade.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I decided I was going to try and sell high about a month or so ago and offered him up to someone. I forget the particulars but I rescinded once I woke up the next day. I keep going back and forth on whether Gronk is just one more back injury away from retirement or if he is simply too dominant to not hold. I've decided I'll keep the risk. Unless someone blows my doors off with an offer, I'm staying put. Another factor is if Brady either falls off the cliff or maybe he retires after next season if they take it all down again. As long as Gronk is healthy I think he has a legitimate shot at TE1 without Brady.
Zyphros
Footballguy
I am an owner in 1 league, and a buyer in 2 others if that matters at all. The league I own him, I'd want a top 6 draft pick otherwise I'm very happy holding. The league's I'm looking to buy I'm likely to pay a late 1st in value. I had a discussion about Tyrell Williams straight up and that seemed to go pretty well until we started talking a much larger trade than a 1 for 1 and the value kind of got lost. In your case, I think it depends on how many WR's you start, but I see Crowell as a solid RB2 approaching RB1 status this coming year.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I own him in 2 spots, the league in question has a lot of room to maneuver in terms of starters. RB and TE are positions of need for me on this squad, but I have week to week starters that cover the min req of 1 each.
Hill, Ingram, Crow, Perkins are really it that are currently rostered
WR are really solid, can start up to 5, Julio, Evans, Dez, Tyrell Williams, C Coleman, T Boyd. Had Landry as well, but shipped him for the 1.02 to help with my RB needs.
I have the 1.02, 1.04, 1.05, 2.01 currently
Was offered a bunch of late round garbage and countered for the 14 and 16 overall.
I felt like this might be too light, and am considering just pulling it, but I feel like he will reject it either way
Borden
Footballguy
I move him ASAP. Duke seems to have a role and I don't trust the Browns to A) keep a cohesive OL and B) not draft another RB. I can see the Browns trading back from 12 and scooping whichever RB falls in the first.
Pwingles
Footballguy
i disagree about duke being a threat, i think his role is his role and thats about it
i do agree on the other points, which has factored some into me looking to move him
Borden
Footballguy
We are on the same page about Duke. I didn't mean he is a threat to Crowell just that he has his role which means Crow doesn't have that piece.
FFPC, so TE premium, someone told me they traded him last week for 6 and 10. That's all I've seen this off-season, has not been dealt in a league of mine.
I own him a few places and generally don't like moving someone who currently has a depressed trade value I think can get on the field, make a few plays and make everyone forget the concerns. Unfortunately that can't happen before I can obtain prime draft capital so I'm probably holding.
I would say the Cooks trade added a new wrinkle of concern and that is he might be used less, not relied on as much in-season to lessen injury risks and have him available for playoffs. That's obviously a minor issue compared to some of the more major concerns but not a non-issue for me.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Even so, he's UFA after this season, so dynasty value remains pretty solid. He's still quite young so no reason to think he can't get a 2nd life after this season,
Last edited by a moderator:
joey
Footballguy
with that list of RBs (and the ability to start more than 1) I'd think Crowell would be the kind of guy you'd want to KEEP, especially with all those draft picks that'll give you flexibility on who you take with those 3 top 5 picks.
Zyphros
Footballguy
In that case I wouldn't move him and stay put. Take Davis at 1.02 then grab the RB that falls to you at 4 and 5 2 of mccaffrey, cook and Mixon. Makes for great pieces to take away from a draft.
Pwingles
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
In a start 1x RB PPR league, I'd move Crowell for picks 14 and 16. He's replaceable depth, IMO.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
I wouldn't go that far, just the opposite. You're in a position to land at least two of the bigdog RB's in this draft and maybe three. Moving Crowell for those picks gives you the chance to take more shots at depth. I love this part of the draft this year - JJSS, Carlos Henderson, Jay Zones, Engram, Hodges, Samuel, Ardarius Stewart, D'Onta Foreman - someone fun is going to be there. I'd love a chance to pick up a couple of those.Pwingles said:
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
What do people perceive is the value of Diggs in non-ppr in terms of rookie picks? First rounder worthy? How high?
Casting Couch
Footballguy
In my standard scoring league, Crowell finished ahead of Gurley, Lamar Miller, and Hyde in total points. I think he's worth a low first at the very minimum, mid first maximum. He just turned 24.
Hankmoody
Footballguy
Non-PPR I think hurts his value a lot. Bradford is a dinker and the biggest value for Diggs is that he needs 8 passes to get 80 yards where a lot of QB's do it in 6-7. Thielen made twenty million dollars thanks to this. I'm not in a non-PPR but in my .5 PPR I'd probably still give a late1st - probably after 10 (16 man leagues). None of the top WR in this draft look to be PPR monster types either, so they look more attractive to me than normal and of course RB are going to dominate the draft in non-PPR anyway. Davis, Williams, Juju, Ross, - all guys I'd rather roll the dice on.
Pwingles
Footballguy
In the league in question where the offers were coming from, he finished RB 14, 73 overall. Its ppr with TE premium. DJ was no1 rb and no 5 overall, 406.8 total pts, vs 206.1 pts, sandwiched between gurley and lat murray. Those figures are just for some reference since your figures were non ppr.
I think his arrow is pointing up, I like him as a player, and have basically nothing invested in him. I took him in the startup a couple years ago and have just been sitting on him really. Nobody in this league is as high on him as i am tho, so getting a 1 is pretty much out of the question at this point and time. Might just be a better move to hang onto him. Just worried the browns do some really brownsy thing and take an rb at 12, then his value is all but shot this season.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
I'm really wondering if I could use him to get up into the top 3-5. Sounds like I could possibly if I have another later first to use.
Thanks guys.
Pwingles
Footballguy
I think if you had say, the 1.09 in a 12 teamer, if im in the 4 or 5 and i dont have a look at LF or Cook or some sort of deperate need that needs to be addressed, im listening to that offer from the 4(maybe) or 5 hole. Gonna be some good players left there, and any need I needed to fill could still be done.
joey
Footballguy
in my non-ppr leagues, Diggs was WR27 in ppg.
a high-end WR3 right now. No one in my leagues is going to give close to a 1st for him.
Andy Dufresne
Footballguy
His value is definitely more of a perceived type than actual.
He was injured most of last year.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
If you are selling Stefon Diggs i think it is because you don't think he can stay healthy, not because he hasn't performed well. I disagree with Andy saying that Diggs is more perceived value than actual value.
Last season, Diggs's second season in the league, despite being injured he had 112 targets 84 receptions 903 yards and 3 TD in 13 games.
That was 8.6 targets 6.5 receptions 69 yards .2 TD per game which over 16 games would be 138 targets 104 receptions 1104 yards 3 TD That is 232 points in PPR scoring leagues or 14.5 points per game. These are WR 2 numbers. Players who scored similarly last season, Golden Tate, DeMarius Thomas, Amari Cooper.
The baseline for WR 36 over the last 3 seasons is 189 points or 11.8 points per game. So Diggs has performed at about 3 points per game higher than WR 36 which makes him a WR 2.
Diggs showed improvement in his second season in terms of targets and receptions and reason to think he will get better in his 3rd season as well.
Obviously this is worth a lot more in PPR format than in standard leagues where yards and TD rule. However there is something to be said for the consistency and volume Diggs gets even though he has less upside for TDs
As far as converting Diggs into rookie players, I could see myself taking Corey Davis or the top 3 RB ahead of him. I would not rather have Mike Williams than Diggs. So that would be pick 1.05 straight up. I think it would be a mistake to move Diggs + for a lower rookie pick than this. I could see doing Diggs + if you are moving to picks 1-3 I suppose, but I wouldn't really want to do that. I would prefer to keep Diggs who is very young and has also proven to be very good when he is healthy.
Last season, Diggs's second season in the league, despite being injured he had 112 targets 84 receptions 903 yards and 3 TD in 13 games.
That was 8.6 targets 6.5 receptions 69 yards .2 TD per game which over 16 games would be 138 targets 104 receptions 1104 yards 3 TD That is 232 points in PPR scoring leagues or 14.5 points per game. These are WR 2 numbers. Players who scored similarly last season, Golden Tate, DeMarius Thomas, Amari Cooper.
The baseline for WR 36 over the last 3 seasons is 189 points or 11.8 points per game. So Diggs has performed at about 3 points per game higher than WR 36 which makes him a WR 2.
Diggs showed improvement in his second season in terms of targets and receptions and reason to think he will get better in his 3rd season as well.
Obviously this is worth a lot more in PPR format than in standard leagues where yards and TD rule. However there is something to be said for the consistency and volume Diggs gets even though he has less upside for TDs
As far as converting Diggs into rookie players, I could see myself taking Corey Davis or the top 3 RB ahead of him. I would not rather have Mike Williams than Diggs. So that would be pick 1.05 straight up. I think it would be a mistake to move Diggs + for a lower rookie pick than this. I could see doing Diggs + if you are moving to picks 1-3 I suppose, but I wouldn't really want to do that. I would prefer to keep Diggs who is very young and has also proven to be very good when he is healthy.
You should definitely be able to use him to get into the 1.04 or 1.05. If I had the 1.05 I'd be very tempted to trade it straight up for Diggs. I'd probably want a little more for the 1.04.Andy Dufresne said:
Yeah, it's crazy how undervalued he is. I think they brought in a OG and OC in free agency. In my (likely unpopular opinion), Britt = Pryor. They can't get worse at QB... right? So his arrow should be pointing up.Casting Couch said:
Detractors will point to the fact that a lot of his points came from breakaway runs, but if not for those runs those same people would probably call him a plodder. I was honestly surprised that he clocked one of the fasted TDs in the NFL last year. Would be pretty interesting to see an alternative universe where he and DJ swapped teams...
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Do you play in a non-PPR format? I hope this doesn't come off as my calling you out, but I'm surprised by a few of the responses here. He's worth a late 1st at best. You'd rightfully have to add to him to land the likes of Kamara in the 1.06-1.07 range. I like Diggs; I've got him in the 3rd round startup range for PPR leagues. But without the receptions, he's not bringing a whole lot to the table. 7/70 is just fine in PPR formats; not so in standard.Biabreakable said:
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Do you play in non-ppr leagues FF Ninja?
1.04 - 1.05 seems insane for Diggs in a non-ppr. I have Diggs in my non-ppr league and in all honesty I totally forgot I even had him. That's how meh he is there. I've been brainstorming a trade offer I got where I trade away one of my starting WRs and I've been worrying who I would start at WR2 if I did it, and it never even crossed my mind that Diggs would fill that role.
Personally I wouldn't even consider giving a 1st for him nor moving across tiers (IE 1.06 to 1.07) for him. This year's draft has a full 1st round of non-PPR relevant players.
What is Diggs' upside? Jarvis Landry? Landry is a pretty meh player in non-ppr (WR19 in ppg last year), so if that's his upside I'm not interested. Heck, I have him and I'm not interested.
He was WR44 in non-ppr last year, WR27 in ppg, and both of those are with a couple of big games early that proved to be aberrations. From week 4 on he was WR56 overall, WR 49 ppg.
1.04 - 1.05 seems insane for Diggs in a non-ppr. I have Diggs in my non-ppr league and in all honesty I totally forgot I even had him. That's how meh he is there. I've been brainstorming a trade offer I got where I trade away one of my starting WRs and I've been worrying who I would start at WR2 if I did it, and it never even crossed my mind that Diggs would fill that role.
Personally I wouldn't even consider giving a 1st for him nor moving across tiers (IE 1.06 to 1.07) for him. This year's draft has a full 1st round of non-PPR relevant players.
What is Diggs' upside? Jarvis Landry? Landry is a pretty meh player in non-ppr (WR19 in ppg last year), so if that's his upside I'm not interested. Heck, I have him and I'm not interested.
He was WR44 in non-ppr last year, WR27 in ppg, and both of those are with a couple of big games early that proved to be aberrations. From week 4 on he was WR56 overall, WR 49 ppg.
bostonfred
Footballguy
Regarding the first paragraph, no. You can't compare pro rated stats from one player to the actual stats of another.Biabreakable said:
- That penalizes the guy who played 16 games but played through injury instead of sitting out.
- It adds variance to an already short sample size (in 13 games, diggs had 5 good games. In 16, he might have had 5 good games or 8.)
- scoring as much ppg as a wr2 does not make you a wr2. It means you're one of a huge group of guys who could put up wr2 numbers if they stayed healthy. That's a ceiling, not a projection.
- I don't agree that his numbers "should" go up. He had 13 catches in back to back weeks this year. That's impressive. He did it on 14 and 15 targets. That's flukey. With those 26 receptions, he had 244 yards. That's under 10 yards a catch.
If he's going to improve on that, it won't be because he catches a higher percentage. So what happened after those two games? He got 7, 8, 5, 5 and 6 targets the rest of the way plus two missed games. It doesn't seem like the team's goal is to force feed him 9+ targets a game. He only had two other fans with 9 or more targets all year.
His overall catch percentage was 84/112 , or exactly 75%. That's very high. You can't count on that going up much, if he can repeat it at all, so to improve his scoring, he needs to get more yards per catch, more targets, or more touchdowns.
He had 52 catches for 720 yards in 13 games as a rookie, but that was on 84 targets (close to 63%) so his nearly 14 yards per catch came at a lower catch percentage. It's hard to catch at a high percentage and a high ypc, and he hasn't shown he can do that.
He has about 1 td per 20 catches, and they have a big tight end and a big new running back. Its possible his tds go up, but hard to predict more than 5 or 6.
Really you need his targets to go up, but remember, the Vikings drafted Treadwell early and he didn't even play, and thielen looked good and should see a boost in targets... so you need Bradford to play well, stay healthy, and prefer Diggs above everyone else. That's certainly possible - it unexpectedly happened this year -but even then he was almost a wr2.
I feel like taking him in the top 40 picks, you're really only going to be happy if he stays healthy and improves and gets good qb play. Which means you're probably overpaying.
Diggs finished one spot after 1.5 in our other poll. I was very surprised by that, but it convinces me that he is experiencing a market surge.
Non PPR would probably drop him down a round in voting... but at worst that takes him to 1.6 or 1.7 in the poll.
Based on the results of the poll, I would trade 1.7 for Diggs right now and walk away happy. If you wanted my 1.5 I would need 2.2 added in. If you wanted 1.4 I would want 1.9 added, if you wanted 1.3 I would want both 1.6 & 1.7
Non PPR would probably drop him down a round in voting... but at worst that takes him to 1.6 or 1.7 in the poll.
Based on the results of the poll, I would trade 1.7 for Diggs right now and walk away happy. If you wanted my 1.5 I would need 2.2 added in. If you wanted 1.4 I would want 1.9 added, if you wanted 1.3 I would want both 1.6 & 1.7
Concept Coop
Footballguy
What makes you say that? He's less valuable than Isaiah Crowell, who hasn't been nominated in the poll yet. Value changes drastically in non-PPR formats--especially for Players like Diggs.
Last edited by a moderator:
bostonfred
Footballguy
In non ppr, he's a guy who just had a 903/3 season, finishing a the 44th overall wide receiver. I'll keep1.6.
A round drop is a drastic change in value. He went at 4.3... if he drops to 5.3 that will be after 1.6 and probably before 1.7.
When i click on PPR versus non PPR rankings done by the same rater, I seldom see players drop more than a round.
That said, I am guessing at where 1.7 will go. I could be wrong. ... if 1.7 goes before 5.3 I would adjust his market value as between 1.7 & 1.8
Last edited by a moderator:
I am not a Diggs defender... as i stated I would not have ranked him as high as he went.... but I have turned the horse into dog food by over-beating it to state that I think rookie picks are also overvalued.
33% of the rookies taken in the first round of dynasty drafts this year will probably never have a year as good as the 903 3 year Diggs had.... those aren't special stats but a third of rookies... even 1st round rookies in a deep draft, ultimately prove they arent special either. I am being conservative when i say a third... most years its 50% or more.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
Last edited by a moderator:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I don't see many non-ppr rankings these days; but if said rankers are only dropping Diggs a round--I have to wonder if they actually play the format. He's bumped half a round by QBs alone; and RBs get a bigger boost than QBs.
Huh? Who does not play non-ppr?
Also, i don't think I commented on anyone's else's opinion, but merely stated my own. Was I supposed to stay silent?
Concept Coop
Footballguy
For the record, I like Diggs as a player. I think he's got ~100/1,200/8 upside. There's just not enough margin for error in non-PPR formats to value him as a difference maker today.
I am not talking about Diggs specifically. Since my favorite league is .5 point PPR what I do is take each online ranking that gives PPR slot and NonPPR rankings and compare them. On FBG, for example, during the preseason you can apply PPR or NON PPR to their projections and suggested draft order.
Maybe you have seen things I have not, i don't know... but if I only have a PPR ranking on a page for a WR, I have found that dropping that player about a round for non-PPR gives a fair shot group for determining how that rater would view the player in Non-PPR. That's my rule of thumb.
The polls we have been doing are only PPR, so I dropped it a round... that is how I reached the conclusion. You can fault my methodology all you like... but I never criticized or even stated disagreement with anyone else's opinion so I do not understand the justification for the vitriol and sarcasm from you and FreeBaGel
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Hankmoody
Footballguy
It's more than a round difference though - a lot. Diggs scored a whopping 43.0% of his points from receptions in PPR while finishing WR14. Only one guy ahead of him was over 37%. So he's got a lot more to lose than most do going to non-PPR. I just ran my PPR league as a test with non-PPR and he finished WR26. He's dropping a lot further than mid-5th. For reference here's the top 30 WR sorted by PPG in non-PPR with their % of points they lost
Player No-PPR %
Brown, Antonio PIT WR 13.9 33.8%
Evans, Mike TBB WR 13.0 31.6%
Nelson, Jordy GBP WR 13.0 31.8%
Jones, Julio ATL WR 12.6 31.9%
Beckham, Odell NYG WR 12.5 33.6%
Hill, Tyreek KCC WR 12.2 23.8%
Green, A.J. CIN WR 12.0 35.4%
Hilton, T.Y. IND WR 11.4 33.2%
Thomas, Michael NOS WR 10.9 36.0%
Adams, Davante GBP WR 10.7 30.4%
Cooks, Brandin NOS WR 10.5 31.7%
Bryant, Dez DAL WR 10.0 27.8%
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 10.0 37.0%
Crabtree, Michael OAK WR 9.4 37.2%
Cooper, Amari OAK WR 9.4 35.3%
Williams, Tyrell SDC WR 9.2 31.8%
Matthews, Rishard TEN WR 9.2 30.7%
Landry, Jarvis MIA WR 9.0 39.5%
Crowder, Jamison WAS WR 9.0 31.8%
Edelman, Julian NEP WR 8.7 41.3%
Lee, Marqise JAC WR 8.6 31.4%
Pryor, Terrelle CLE WR 8.6 36.0%
Britt, Kenny RAM WR 8.5 34.7%
Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 8.5 39.8%
Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 8.5 44.3%
Diggs, Stefon MIN WR 8.5 43.1%
Benjamin, Kelvin CAR WR 8.4 32.0%
Sanders, Emmanuel DEN WR 8.3 37.2%
Jackson, DeSean WAS WR 8.3 31.0%
Smith, Steve FA WR 8.3 37.7%
Last edited by a moderator:
Concept Coop
Footballguy
If you told me a few years ago that Antonio Brown would be the highest scoring WR in non-PPR formats...
bostonfred
Footballguy
How about this list
Baldwin, Doug SEA WR 10.0 37.0%Crabtree, Michael OAK WR 9.4 37.2%Cooper, Amari OAK WR 9.4 35.3%Williams, Tyrell SDC WR 9.2 31.8%Matthews, Rishard TEN WR 9.2 30.7%Landry, Jarvis MIA WR 9.0 39.5%Crowder, Jamison WAS WR 9.0 31.8%Edelman, Julian NEP WR 8.7 41.3%Lee, Marqise JAC WR 8.6 31.4%Pryor, Terrelle CLE WR 8.6 36.0%Britt, Kenny RAM WR 8.5 34.7%Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR 8.5 39.8%Fitzgerald, Larry ARI WR 8.5 44.3%
