What I’m about to say was documented here in real time. I’m not genius, but if you understand math this was inevitable.
January 30, I flew from Austin to Atlanta and then to Palm Beach. I didn’t wear a mask, but brought disinfectant wipes, used hand sanitizer, and didn’t eat while at airports. Was highly conscious. Had an interesting moment with a guy while I was doing a surgeon’s wash at a sink in Atlanta, and he was doing the same. We acknowledged that we were aware the virus may be lurking. The signs were apparent then.
Then March 6, there was an event at my kid’s school where they showed off projects. Parents had to enter through a single vestibule, shoulder to shoulder. As I was catching up with the mother of a kid in my son’s class, who is a nurse, she was dry coughing and doing a terrible token job covering it.
No one other than us seemed to be acknowledging the virus. Wife and I both refused hand shakes and hugs. Others were still acting as normal.
That was it for me. It was a Friday and we pulled my 9 year old from school after school that day, which was a week before Spring Break.
Wife’s friends were surprised we were being so proactive. It made a few question whether they should take it more seriously. Up until Friday March 13, my wife’s sister’s family was planning to go to Vegas the week of the 16th.
Two things happened on the 11th-12th.
11th: I had sidelined 401ks into bonds months ago, and decided when the Dow hit about 23k to put half back in stocks.
That night the NBA shuttered in dramatic fashion, Tom Hanks announced he had it, and suddenly it dawned on seemly everyone at once that it was serious.
12th: Markets tanked. Over next 2-3 days, I lost about 15% of what I put back in. (As it neared bottom, I put more in to the point of being about 3% overall before sidelining it all into bonds again last Monday.)
Besides documenting for posterity, these two stories back-to-back show that this was a slow boil. It was a certainly and needed different levels of emotional connection to spark acknowledgement that it was coming.
Strange also how reason and emotion intertwine.