Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I agree that 4 is too many.
But I also believe 2 is too few.
My strategy is somewhere in the middle.
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2021 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter apalmer
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But I also believe 2 is too few.
My strategy is somewhere in the middle.
apalmer
Footballguy
I've been waffling between 2 & 3. 2 seems like the "go for it" approach, but my current iteration, splitting the cost of the QB2 into QBS 2 &3 seems wiser and us probably where I'll end up.I agree that 4 is too many.
But I also believe 2 is too few.
My strategy is somewhere in the middle.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I do it for both safety (injuries happen, COVID world, etc) and best ball - yeah, you’re benching 2 guys a week with 3 QB. But 3 chances at a big game are better than 2.
3’s a good number for me.
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SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Without commenting on the rightness or wrongness of the sides of that debate, some random thoughts.....
- participation may be down this year
- commonality (non-uniqueness) may be up this year
- with tougher pricing the screaming value picks seem to jump off the page more so this year
- "wisdom of the crowd" tends to be better than individual projections
- like DFS, the trick is not so much uniqueness as it is correct uniqueness.
- I find myself thinking more about touchdown equity more this year (player vs player, run vs pass, team vs team)
- commonality will be a lot less for players >$15 than it will be for players <$15.
- the penalty for choosing the "wrong" cheap players will be a lot more severe this year.
What does all that mean? HellifIknow.
rzrback77
Footballguy
You only have ten scorers each week, so you are benching half your roster when you carry twenty players. If you carry 26, then you should logically have the bench depth to allow for three QBs. Glad that I went one entry with four to see the push-back from some very knowledgeable people. I believe that three can be a better "go for it" QB than two unless "go for it" means maximum risk.
Dacomish
Footballguy
I said it before in one of these contest threads (maybe even this one), in 2019 I went with 2 QB's: Brees and LJax - Brees went down early and yes Ljax had his breakout year so I was cruising till like week 9 when Ljax was on Bye and I was sweating bullets all week as Brees didn't get cleared to play till like the Friday and had he not played I would have been bounced that week and because I got "saved" by Brees coming back I actually finished 75th that year.
All it takes is one injury when you roster 2 to get sunk on a bye. Having a 3rd even if your wasting like $8-10 is money in the long run because you most likely wont take a 0 at a very important spot to help keep you alive. I almost learned my lesson the hard way and will never go with only 2 at QB again.
All it takes is one injury when you roster 2 to get sunk on a bye. Having a 3rd even if your wasting like $8-10 is money in the long run because you most likely wont take a 0 at a very important spot to help keep you alive. I almost learned my lesson the hard way and will never go with only 2 at QB again.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I feel like another framing could be that 2 might be the only way to get enough oomph across positions to get to the end game. Perhaps you have to take some risk on here to win.
Dacomish
Footballguy
Absolutely and that is a fair take, I was just pointing out how it could go wrong.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
i think historically two has been the right decision. $8-$10 on the bench is tough to swallow in the finals
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, but that’s sort of defeats the purpose of a best ball contest. With two “elite” quarterbacks, they can both lay an egg the same weekInstinctive said:
The third quarterback is the insurance policy and potential play that pops & held propel you to the top of the standings.
theoretically, you want as many players in every position as possible. Obviously there are limits due to the budget, BYE weeks, injury, etc.
but in a best ball tournament, I want to have as many darts to throw at each position as I can.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yes, but historically we didn’t have COVID-19 and the threat of forfeiture by an entire team, or a game missed by a player for close contact.BassNBrew said:
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Not to nitpick, but technically 2 and 3 are not on the bench as the finals last 3 weeks and could feature contribution from one or both in that span. The 3 week final is yet another example of how the designers of this contest are evil.BassNBrew said:
j/k.
sort of.
Instinctive
Footballguy
I don't think that's an entirely good way of looking at it.
You actually want as many players capable of consistently scoring enough weeks to be on your team. There's something to be said for fewer, more likely players. Your goal is to maximize your scores each week.
So you don't necessarily want the most darts. You want as many good darts as possible. It's a balance.
Was thinking about this while looking at my 27-player roster and thinking of how I'm pretty good at FF, have played this thing for ten years, have always gone big roster, and have never placed in the top 100. I've made the last cut a time or two, but without the luck and/or juice to bring it home.
It's not that unlike a classic Tax I question in school: What's the goal of good tax accounting? Many students jump to say "minimize taxes" - that's wrong. The easiest way to minimize taxes is to pay no money. What you actually want to do is maximize your post-tax income. I think I see some similarities in the roster size discussion - not a perfect analogy, but definitely interesting.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Conversely, I've always gone big in this game, and it's burned me every time. So this year I'm adding bullets to my gun - if I miss with a coupe, maybe my scrubs can bail me out.
Many ways to approach it.
BassNBrew
Footballguy
ot kind of depends on the year. Get a Warner or Mahhommes at a decent price that hangs huge week after huge week and the 3rd qb is just spotting a large percentage of the field 3-4% of your salary cap
that said I’m currently at 3 for the Covid reason you mention
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
I look at the bench like an insurance policy. I can buy a $3-$7 insurance policy for the RB, WR and TE position and have some measure of confidence that I can buy into a small slice of pie in a decent offense. If I try to buy the same insurance policy at the QB position, I'm battling some combination of moribound passing game and/or participation uncertainty. If I were to play in that space, I would probably go Fields, as I'm somewhat confident that the Rams or Andy Dalton are going to harm Andy Dalton in week 1. Someone in this range will probably blow out their cost/value proposition....I just don't want to have to guess which one, and don't want to invest in a QB4.
With that in mind, the covid arbitrage (in my opinion) tends to favor a QB1 in the 5-10 range plus 2 backups > $7 versus a top 5 QB1 and one backup (if you accept the thesis that the $3-$7 range is fools gold) or mixing and matching QB2 and QB3 above and below the (arbitrary) $7 line of demarcation. I won't be surprised if some go the 2 QBs route with a top 5 "starter" and are successful...but I'd rather beef up RB and TE and hedge with 3 QBs.
With that in mind, the covid arbitrage (in my opinion) tends to favor a QB1 in the 5-10 range plus 2 backups > $7 versus a top 5 QB1 and one backup (if you accept the thesis that the $3-$7 range is fools gold) or mixing and matching QB2 and QB3 above and below the (arbitrary) $7 line of demarcation. I won't be surprised if some go the 2 QBs route with a top 5 "starter" and are successful...but I'd rather beef up RB and TE and hedge with 3 QBs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
that’s honestly the only reason I have 3. everything else is devil’s advocate / game theory / mumbo jumbo to fake y’all out into changing your lineups last minute.
not very sporting of me, I know.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I (currently*) have 1 midrange QB with what I see as upside & 2 back-end QBs for weekly dart throws/BYE/COVID coverage.
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
rzrback77
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
SeniorVBDStudent
Footballguy
Just try to smooth it out from week 6 through week 14. If you have no one on bye w13/14, changes are you have a problem in earlier weeks.
fightingillini
Footballguy
It's my only reason for carrying 3. It helps that the QB pricing is pretty cheap this year.that’s honestly the only reason I have 3. everything else is devil’s advocate / game theory / mumbo jumbo to fake y’all out into changing your lineups last minute.
not very sporting of me, I know.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Instinctive
Footballguy
I keep trying to cut my lineup down and concentrate on some studlier guys. And now I have 28 instead of 25. Lol.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
When do rosters lock?
matuski
Footballguy
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Bye weeks:
6 > $36
7 > $39
8 > $11
9 > $49
10> $34
11> $45
12> $00
13> $16
14> $20
6 > $36
7 > $39
8 > $11
9 > $49
10> $34
11> $45
12> $00
13> $16
14> $20
Dacomish
Footballguy
Changed my roster for the first time since last Thursday. Decided to go back to the QB I had had for about half of my iterations over the past few weeks and trimmed from 2 "value" RBs to a lesser "Value" rb (and another cheaper RB) to a to get the $6 I needed. What does it all mean...well maybe I get bounced in week 7 instead of week 6 this year.....hurry up lock day!!!
BillyJoeBob
Footballguy
My bye week breakdown:
6 - $27
7 - $29
8 - $38
9 - $26
10 - $24
11 - $23
12 - $30
13 - $35
14 - $18
Would prefer earlier bye weeks, but the players I want will not allow it.
6 - $27
7 - $29
8 - $38
9 - $26
10 - $24
11 - $23
12 - $30
13 - $35
14 - $18
Would prefer earlier bye weeks, but the players I want will not allow it.
rustycolts
Footballguy
Bye weeks for me
6-$19
7-$72
8-$25
9-$37
10-$17
11-$21
12-$5
13-$25
14-$29
Looks like week 7 is a challenge for me 7 on bye that week. Still have 23 going that week though as long as everyone is healthy.
6-$19
7-$72
8-$25
9-$37
10-$17
11-$21
12-$5
13-$25
14-$29
Looks like week 7 is a challenge for me 7 on bye that week. Still have 23 going that week though as long as everyone is healthy.
apalmer
Footballguy
Byes:
Week 6--$35
Week 7 -- $54
Week 8 -- $34
Week 9 -- $17
Week 10 -- $0
Week 11 -- $30
Week 12 -- $30
Week 13 -- $32
Week 14 -- $18
May need to find some Week 10 guys to stick in. Week 7 is high $, but Draft Dominator says Week 9 is my lowest score, while Week 7 is actually above average.
Week 6--$35
Week 7 -- $54
Week 8 -- $34
Week 9 -- $17
Week 10 -- $0
Week 11 -- $30
Week 12 -- $30
Week 13 -- $32
Week 14 -- $18
May need to find some Week 10 guys to stick in. Week 7 is high $, but Draft Dominator says Week 9 is my lowest score, while Week 7 is actually above average.
dkp993
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Well, I just went to make a change, and couldn't bring myself to uncheck anyone I had checked, so I think that means this cake is baked.
Final tally:
23 players
3 QB for $25
5 RB for $89
7 WR for $84
3 TE for $33
2 K for $6
3 D/ST for $7
BYEs
Week 6 = $30
Week 7 = $70
Week 9 = $12
Week 10 = $13
Week 11 = $55
Week 13 = $55
Week 14 = $15
If I can get past week 13 it's smooth sailing.
Final tally:
23 players
3 QB for $25
5 RB for $89
7 WR for $84
3 TE for $33
2 K for $6
3 D/ST for $7
BYEs
Week 6 = $30
Week 7 = $70
Week 9 = $12
Week 10 = $13
Week 11 = $55
Week 13 = $55
Week 14 = $15
If I can get past week 13 it's smooth sailing.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
joey
Footballguy
Final iteration (I think). 24 player squad.
QB - 3 at $28
RB - 6 at $95 (just like my drafts, RB Heavy. It’s a sickness)
WR - 7 at $78
TE - 3 at $33
K - 3 at $9
D - 2 at $7
bye weeks
week 6 = 4 at $36
week 7 = 2 at $23
week 8 = 3 at $24
week 9 = 2 at $23
week 10 = none
week 11 = 6 at $69 (uh oh)
week 12 = none
week 13 = 5 at $64 (another uh oh week)
week 14 = 2 at $11
My toughest bye weeks are late but I’ve never made it past week 6 or 7 in this contest anyway, so this could be my best year yet!
QB - 3 at $28
RB - 6 at $95 (just like my drafts, RB Heavy. It’s a sickness)
WR - 7 at $78
TE - 3 at $33
K - 3 at $9
D - 2 at $7
bye weeks
week 6 = 4 at $36
week 7 = 2 at $23
week 8 = 3 at $24
week 9 = 2 at $23
week 10 = none
week 11 = 6 at $69 (uh oh)
week 12 = none
week 13 = 5 at $64 (another uh oh week)
week 14 = 2 at $11
My toughest bye weeks are late but I’ve never made it past week 6 or 7 in this contest anyway, so this could be my best year yet!
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dacomish
Footballguy
Done barring any new injuries/issues with players:
QB - 3 for $34
RB - 6 for $98
WR - 6 for $67
TE - 3 for $39
K - 3 for $8
Def - 2 for $4
total 23 for $250
Byes:
Week 6 = 1 for $5
Week 7= 4 for $42
Week 8 = 2 for $27
Week 9 = 4 for $50
Week 10 = 4 for $50
Week 11 = 2 for $19
Week 12 = 1 for $5
Week 13 = 5 for $52
Week 14 = 0 for $0
A few weeks could sink me byes wise but I do have diversity amongst the position groups and only have 1 where there are 2 players with the same bye (one stud/1 dart throw). Time will tell.
QB - 3 for $34
RB - 6 for $98
WR - 6 for $67
TE - 3 for $39
K - 3 for $8
Def - 2 for $4
total 23 for $250
Byes:
Week 6 = 1 for $5
Week 7= 4 for $42
Week 8 = 2 for $27
Week 9 = 4 for $50
Week 10 = 4 for $50
Week 11 = 2 for $19
Week 12 = 1 for $5
Week 13 = 5 for $52
Week 14 = 0 for $0
A few weeks could sink me byes wise but I do have diversity amongst the position groups and only have 1 where there are 2 players with the same bye (one stud/1 dart throw). Time will tell.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Mister CIA
Footballguy
Same here. Covid concerns expressed by others had me wanting to bump the QB position from two to three, but I'm totally incapable of giving any ground from the rest of the roster.
My final configuration:
24 players @$250.
18 players @ $228 if you factor out kickers and defense.
QB: 2 Spent surprisingly little money here for two QBs who should *easily* produce monster weeks on par with the super-elite tier QBs.
RB: 5 Went with a couple of high-end options (one who is probably not rostered to the same degree as his peers), two bargains I like a lot in best-ball format, and one mid-tier player I think is capable of top-5-ish production who will give me that splash of coveted uniqness. No duplicate byes at RB. While I aim to avoid spotlighting individuals, I'll share that I took the path less traveled and left the #1 Raven RB off my roster.
WR: 8 Did not throw any speculative darts here, but rather opted for inexpensive options who have a solid chance of emerging as the #1 option on their respective teams. I have two weeks where I max out with two WRs on a bye, and neither of these weeks align with the byes of my QBs, nor any $20+ player.
TE: 3 Let's just say I bit a bullet here; and, there's one mid-tier TE and one low-tier TE I like a lot and I picked both.
K: 3 DEF: 3. It's been about 5 years since I played the contest, but I've had a few deep runs (week 11-ish type stuff). I'm pretty sure that every time I got bounced it was because I got near-donuts from both K and DEF. So lived experience has me picking 3 each, even though the voice in my head says this where I have to accept risk and go with two each and hope that I can survive weeks 1-14.
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unless I find a way to add another defense
