ghostguy123
Footballguy
Good move I think.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (16 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
I like the “I think” part
I'm not a Pittman guy so this is basically like Dulcich for free.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
You’re the clear winner.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
In 1 QB I’d take Olave at 1.05 if he were in the draft. Paying a soon to be 29 year old Amari Cooper isn’t too bad of an overpay.
Others might disagree. I like your side.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I like it.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I might do something like that in season if I really need a RB but definitely not now. Just think you have to be very careful on RB investments and wait as long as you can and exhausted options.
Easy win for you in my book. Olave is super safe. I see some land mines around 1.05 and Coop is a fine price to pay to avoid them IMO.
I actually like the Cooper, 1.05 side.
I like Olave and all, but Cooper is still only 28 (29 when season begins) and had an excellent 2022 playing with Jacoby Brissett. Ended up WR 10 and I wouldn't be surprised with a repeat performance playing with Watson. Plus 1.5 gets you a choice of the Addison, Johnson, Flowers group or Charbonnet if you need an RB.
Not a landslide win by any means, but hit the pick and it's a nice win IMO
rockaction
Footballguy
I like the Olave side, provided he stays healthy with that frame. Only thing that gives me pause about the deal.
efactor makes a really good point, though, especially if you're looking at two-year windows. Cooper is still a fantasy stud/good scoring asset (somewhere in between the two of those categories), and if you select a rookie WR that hits, then you're looking at an Olave situation plus Cooper. That said, considering you've got to hit that pick and Cooper is getting older, Olave for the next five years sounds too tempting to pass up.
eta*KeepTradeCut has it for the Cooper side. Says the Olave side needed a third in return. That's FWIW.
efactor makes a really good point, though, especially if you're looking at two-year windows. Cooper is still a fantasy stud/good scoring asset (somewhere in between the two of those categories), and if you select a rookie WR that hits, then you're looking at an Olave situation plus Cooper. That said, considering you've got to hit that pick and Cooper is getting older, Olave for the next five years sounds too tempting to pass up.
eta*KeepTradeCut has it for the Cooper side. Says the Olave side needed a third in return. That's FWIW.
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jabarony
Footballguy
Pollard, even if you didn't need a RB.
Da Franchise
Footballguy
I’m guilty of constantly thinking with an FFPC mindset. That said, I’m fairly sure this is FFPC given the poster.
The roster spot is important, sure, but also consolidating, storing value in safe spots in the off-season and getting something out of aging receivers is huge. Olave is extremely valuable and can survive a dud season without falling too much. People will still want to acquire him.
If the 1.05 pick has a meh year, they will quickly drop in value. Cooper is already an afterthought and if has a down year, he’s worthless in those leagues. So forget the names for a sec, he just stored a bunch of value in a super safe spot in the off-season and opened up a roster spot. Once the season is underway that’s a ton of flexibility if you want to use Olave to go get a RB or some such. Or just have a young, highly desirable asset. BIG win imo.
*I know you’re on Olave side, just responding to the last post.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I'm also favor the Olave side. I think he has a higher ceiling than we are expecting. He was my WR1 last year.
While Cooper and Clev might be more "pass happy" with Watson, Olave has Carr throwing all over the field and will be seeing high volume target share.
If MT even gets back on the field, his share will not be significant.
Cooper & Clev still have Chubb as the primary offensive weapon and DJP & Elijah Moore in house to gobble up shares.
Cooper's age is also a factor for me. I thought he lost a step his last year in Dallas.
Fair to me. Not trying to be a contrarian but I got a FFPC league with Cooper, pick 5, and I need some WR help and still would likely say no to this offer and wait and see what options the draft has for me.
I think it was you who asked in a thread yesterday who was preferred between ASB and Olave and I replied something along the lines of I don't have an answer and would just change my mind every few minutes. I've had longer to think about it and I'd go ASB for sure.
I don't view Olave as having the upside that I believe the majority opinion here has for him. I view him as more of a Terry McClaurin type player. I don't think Olave will ever be a massive high volume guy and IMO is more of a long term WR2 type, which has a ton of value but I don't see big time upside.
I said this in that thread and I'll say it here as well but one of the reasons I don't see the massive upside for Olave, or massive growth, is he entered the league incredibly polished. I think growth in his game will likely be more determined by external factors, like QB, then his personal growth as a player.
The biggest knock I had on Olave coming into the league was he's not much a YAC weapon. That has not changed. His a-DOT last year was 14. No WR who scored more fantasy points per game had a number that high. The closest number to him among any WR who scored more points then him, the closest a-DOT to him of any top 24 PPG WR was a tie between Evans and ironically Cooper both at 13.4, and those two were WR 17-18 in PPG. Tyreek at 12.2 had the highest a-DOT any WR in the top 12, a WR1.
I don't think this will change much, I think it's the kind of player he is and for me a I view him as a young and likely long term WR2 with volume and high percentage targets being the issues that keep him from WR1. I'm for sure taking him over pick 5, but I think likely 1-2 more productive season out of Cooper is likely and that impacts me and leads me to say I view this as fair, even. Something I might do when I was OTC at 5, but not in a hurry to do now.
rockaction
Footballguy
I agree with the rest of your post, so let me apologize for isolating the only part I don't agree with. Apologies out of the way, I'm not sure how accurate this is. It would seem that unless the receiver or player he takes has a bomb of a year, a second-year player, especially a WR, taken that early (assuming that player is part of a reasonable consensus or tier) shouldn't drop too much in value. If it's somebody like Skyy Moore or Henry Ruggs or Jalen Reagor, then yes, but those guys were generally 1.09-1.12 guys in the draft, not 1.05. Those WRs in the mid-first tend to hold their value even after non-productive first years provided they don't bomb.
At least that's my understanding and experience. Perhaps not.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Not a big Jones fan, but it feels cheap for super flex.
Allgeier, but fair if Atlanta drafts a back in the 2nd or 3rd this is an overpay, if they don't it is a steal.
Fair deal. I would take Hopkins if competing and the other side if rebuilding.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It pains me to say it, but Daniel Jones.
The pick’s a year out. If I knew it was likely to be top 3, sure, but that’s impossible to know.
Gimme the 2nd. I think Atlanta drafts a RB.
Elijah but it’s close and depends on if I’m competing or not. Hopkins probably has another good season in him. He’ll likely be dealt to a competitive team. But yeah, it can’t last.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Man. This is hard.
Olave for Smith - I have them pretty close. Advantage Smith for his QB & play-calling.
Otten doesn’t move the needle, and neither does Bellinger.
Gainwell + Mattison for Gibson + Warren
with a gun to my head, I’ll take the Gibson/Olave side. But if Mattison ends up starting for MIN, that tips the scales to that side.
Really interesting trade. Mostly I'm not sure why they bothered. Both teams are probably the same caliber before and after this deal.
ETA: was it a cap thing?
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JohnnyU
Footballguy
You see, that’s the problem with Superflex, when a 1st is light for Daniel Jones.
NE_REVIVAL
Footballguy
FFPC 1qb startup (in progress), Olave & 2.2 for Bijan & 3.3
Result - gave Olave & ARSB, got Bijan & Metcalf
Was really hoping Metcalf would be there at 3.3 and very happy with the way it turned out
Result - gave Olave & ARSB, got Bijan & Metcalf
Was really hoping Metcalf would be there at 3.3 and very happy with the way it turned out
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Maybe for you, but everyone is different. Some people want their fantasy leagues to be like the NFL where qbs are the most important piece to a team.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Pretty fair. I would probably take your side, but it would depend on starting requirements and how you like to build a team.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hard not to love that.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
It says all I need to know about SF when middling to mediocre QBs are worth a 1st, and in some eyes the 1st is considered light for those mediocre QBs.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
He was a top 12 FF QB last year.
I’m not a Danny 10-pennies guy, but he’s worth a 1st in SF. “Mediocre” is underselling Jones 2022 performance.
The only question is whether he can repeat, or if he’ll regress.
I hate that you’re making me defend Danny 2-nickels, but the stats don’t lie.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Oh, I agree Jones has value in SF, but to say a 1st is light for him leaves a bad taste IMO. Plus, there are worse QBs than Daniel Jones that go for a first in SF and that blows my mind…….and keeps me away from SF.
Birdie048
Footballguy
I do like it, but the depth and value of WR's in my league (start 5 option) makes this a fair trade... not lopsided at all.
And I am a big Olave fan.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
All you need to know. Lol.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
Olave/Gibson
barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm doing a SF startup right now and Jones just went at 4.05 as QB16. I don't disagree with you about him. I'm not ready to spend that much for him. I love SF though and I like to (try to) exploit the idea that QBs are so overpriced. But I understand it's not for everyone. I think Jones has shown enough that he can still take another step or two, and he is still quite young. So there is a world where he may be too cheap right now, but generally I'm avoiding in dynasty unless I get him for pretty cheap, which I have not found to be the case.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Blockbuster:
16 team SF PPR IDP TE-P, Start 2 TE
I gave: 2023 1.01, Trey Lance, Baker Mayfield, Bobby Okereke, Lavonte David, Jonathan Greenard, 2024 4th
I received: Trevor Lawrence + James Cook
I am not invested in Lance or Mayfield at all. David is old, and I’m 8 deep at LB. Losing Okereke hurts, but I still have Zaire Franklin, Luvu, Ernest Jones, Shaq Thompson & Kyzir White
The 4th rounder is insignificant.
Resulting lineup:
QB - TLaw
SF - Fields
RB - Hall, AJ Dillon, James Cook
WR - Higgins, Aiyuk, Bateman, Mooney (G.Davis, Mims, couple scrubs)
TE - Schultz, Kmet
IDP - no one cares. lol
I wanted the 1.07 bad. That wasn’t gonna happen. Cook was his RB2, so I guess I’ll have to hope he has enough juice to fill in if Hall misses any time.
In a 16 teamer, having TLaw/Fields feels pretty good.
Time will tell if this was the right move, and I really would have liked to get an impact RB back, but at least now I don’t have to decide what to do at 1.01
16 team SF PPR IDP TE-P, Start 2 TE
I gave: 2023 1.01, Trey Lance, Baker Mayfield, Bobby Okereke, Lavonte David, Jonathan Greenard, 2024 4th
I received: Trevor Lawrence + James Cook
I am not invested in Lance or Mayfield at all. David is old, and I’m 8 deep at LB. Losing Okereke hurts, but I still have Zaire Franklin, Luvu, Ernest Jones, Shaq Thompson & Kyzir White
The 4th rounder is insignificant.
Resulting lineup:
QB - TLaw
SF - Fields
RB - Hall, AJ Dillon, James Cook
WR - Higgins, Aiyuk, Bateman, Mooney (G.Davis, Mims, couple scrubs)
TE - Schultz, Kmet
IDP - no one cares. lol
I wanted the 1.07 bad. That wasn’t gonna happen. Cook was his RB2, so I guess I’ll have to hope he has enough juice to fill in if Hall misses any time.
In a 16 teamer, having TLaw/Fields feels pretty good.
Time will tell if this was the right move, and I really would have liked to get an impact RB back, but at least now I don’t have to decide what to do at 1.01
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Birdie048
Footballguy
Low cost for TLaw in SF 16 Team ... you made out well, but Okereke, LavDavid + Bijan are your only real cost.Blockbuster:
16 team SF PPR IDP TE-P, Start 2 TE
I gave: 2023 1.01, Trey Lance, Baker Mayfield, Bobby Okereke, Lavonte David, Jonathan Greenard, 2024 4th
I received: Trevor Lawrence + James Cook
In a 16 teamer, having TLaw/Fields feels pretty good.
Time will tell if this was the right move, and I really would have liked to get an impact RB back, but at least now I don’t have to decide what to do at 1.01
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Dez
Footballguy
I forgot how SF seems to dominate the landscape and you have to say non SF....I would always assume non SF if not posted as SF.
Non SF I don't play SF
Dez
Footballguy
Ya in theory it is a win but in reality we won't know for a few years. Imagine trading up for CEH in 2020 only to see Jefferson go in the 1.07 to 1.10 range.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Yea I'm living it. I had JJ in a tier of his own at player 8 that year, drafted him at 1.8 in two other leagues. But got one league I had 3,4, 6 and 8 and gave the 3 and 8 for CEH. Basically traded Swift/Jefferson for CEH. That offer got rejected when I first offered it and re-offered and accepted two days later. Oh how I wish the guy had not mulled it over.yeah, that’s rough. Could happen.
But that's all beside the point to me. Today is what matters when analyzing trades, if you get value on a player over market or get a player you value over market value you did well today.
rockaction
Footballguy
I get that, and I get saying that, but isn't half of the idea to use your knowledge to beat the market? I think that, for the most part in certain leagues, you've got perfect competition (the economics term) and everybody knows the current value of a player. My theory is that you want to beat that valuation with your own valuation and that's how, long-term, you have a winning team.
But I could be wrong and some fine minds disagree with that. I just think that line of thought doesn't give enough credit to the layperson as an evaluator of fantasy talent and scoring (within the confines of each person's league), because the win-today theory assumes that everyone is bad at evaluating talent and that you'll lose to the market's valuation long-term. I don't see that in my experience. With all this free knowledge, it just strikes me that everybody is pretty much on a level playing field and that beating the market is the way to try it.
Yes, that's pretty much what I meant by saying "if you get a player you like over market value" you won the trade today. Today being the key.
Things can take a lot of twists and turns in fantasy but best we can do in the here and now and use our knowledge to make trades we think beat the market.
I just think there is a difference between a good trade that ends up bad and a bad trade. Some may not see it any differently.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Totally agree.
Also, while I agree that the playing field is more level, there’s still sharks & guppies. Not everyone is grinding all off-season, paying attention to the “on the block” messages/emails, working trades, etc.
You can still outwork your league. Heck, I made 3 trades before 60% of my league renewed. Maybe 4.
Both the deal for 1.01 and today’s TLaw deal were the result of an “on the block” email & a “what are you interested in?” message.
Effort always matters. At least until AI takes over.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I think you’re spot on, but that there are numerous other factors for success at this hobby.
I often wish I were smarter, for example. lol
Yes and I'd add on that trade I did that I had picks 3 and 4 because in the previous off-season, in 2019, someone offered me two first round picks for Bell and Julio.
The startup of this league was Bell's rookie season. I drafted him, got every useful season out of his career and turned him into a top 4 pick. That same draft I took Julio who was entering year 3. I got 6 top 10 fantasy seasons out of him and turned him into a top 4 pick.
By all accounts I crushed that trade as Julio and Bell were never worth much again, a net negative on a roster in fact.
But in the end, as crazy as it sounds, but if just judging on the ultimate end result you could say I lost on those Bell/Julio trades because they provided the ammo I'd otherwise not have had or offered to pull off that deal to move up to 1.1. In the end by trading those two I ended up with Dobbins(who I took at 4) and CEH instead of Jefferson.
Well actually I ended up turning CEH into ETN so as of today it's basically ETN/Dobbins instead of Jefferson. I'm still losing but a little more salvageable.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So yes, first of all.
There’s a deeper pool of players. That said, whether you’ll take defenders in the 1st will largely depend on your scoring system. If it’s not big play scoring format, then you’re likely going to see a 1st round that looks a lot like most 1QB or SF 1st round, depending on what that league is (didn’t see OP state)
So I’m valuing this like the 1.02 is an elite prospect while 7 & 12 are several tiers lower (or a couple, if SF)
Dez
Footballguy
Just for reference this particular league has start 8 DF (2 DL, 2 LB, 2 DB, 2 Flex)
DL get 2 pts tackle, 6 per sack
LB/DB get 1.5 per tackle, 6 per sack.
Normally the high rated defense guys start going at the end of the 1st / early 2nd of these rookie drafts.
how my redraft IDP scores.
