WR Puka Nacua LAR (1 Viewer)

[DeaLerZ]

I am going $40 on him, but I am WR poor. We will see if it was enough at 3:00 CDT tomorrow morning.

I am doing about the same. Not thin at WR, but he seems legit, and if Kupp is out for a long time could be a league winner.

 

[Faust]

All 10 Puka Nacua catches in rookie WR's 119-yard debut | Week 1

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

As long as Kupp is out he’s a WR2

If Kupp comes back he’s a WR4

For FF purposes I believe he’ll be a WR3 if/when Kupp comes back.

He’s certainly earned the WR2 target share on the Rams.

And without many other quality receiving options he should produce at least WR3/flex-worthy numbers weekly.

And of course I’d put strong possibility that Kupp misses more time later in the season even if he does manage to come back week 4.

For redraft I’d say upwards of 50% of FAAB would be the minimum bid. If you’re desperate for WR production, I’d go even higher.

 

[DeaLerZ]

As long as Kupp is out he’s a WR2

If Kupp comes back he’s a WR4

For FF purposes I believe he’ll be a WR3 if/when Kupp comes back.

He’s certainly earned the WR2 target share on the Rams.

And without many other quality receiving options he should produce at least WR3/flex-worthy numbers weekly.

And of course I’d put strong possibility that Kupp misses more time later in the season even if he does manage to come back week 4.

For redraft I’d say upwards of 50% of FAAB would be the minimum bid. If you’re desperate for WR production, I’d go even higher.

Sounds about right. He seems like a potential league winner if Kupp misses even more time.

I didn't realize he was PFF's #1 graded WR last year, #1 in WR efficiency, and only had 3 drops. Positive reports all summer from McVay too.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Each new post on this thread has me upping my FAAB bid.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

Each new post on this thread has me upping my FAAB bid.

Me too!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Again, Matt Waldman’s RSP had a nice profile on him, and while he had all the flotsam listed, Puka was included in the tier with the rookie WRs who had projected early draft capital.

He was the last in the tier but still - for a dude who was largely an afterthought in rookie drafts (5th rounder in 2 of my 3, by me) it was like stealing.

Matt gets roasted for some of his misses, but between ARich & Puka he’s done me a huge solid this year.

 

[efactor]

I am going $40 on him, but I am WR poor. We will see if it was enough at 3:00 CDT tomorrow morning.

It's so dependent on league size and how many WRs you start as far as how much FAAB to bid.

In a 14 team where we start 3 WRs and a flex, I'm going all in and bidding $70. Nothing fluky about what he did and even when/if Kupp comes back, he can still be a solid #3 type receiver.

 

[titusbramble]

Just rejected an offer for Bijan straight up

lol joking but nacua to the moon

 

[abrunn1133]

I am going $40 on him, but I am WR poor. We will see if it was enough at 3:00 CDT tomorrow morning.

It's so dependent on league size and how many WRs you start as far as how much FAAB to bid.

In a 14 team where we start 3 WRs and a flex, I'm going all in and bidding $70. Nothing fluky about what he did and even when/if Kupp comes back, he can still be a solid #3 type receiver.

Yessir, mine is basically a 3 WR league with full PPR. Funny thing is that the guy that drafted Puka dropped him for Hunt on Saturday night.

 

[Ray_T]

Again, Matt Waldman’s RSP had a nice profile on him, and while he had all the flotsam listed, Puka was included in the tier with the rookie WRs who had projected early draft capital.

He was the last in the tier but still - for a dude who was largely an afterthought in rookie drafts (5th rounder in 2 of my 3, by me) it was like stealing.

Matt gets roasted for some of his misses, but between ARich & Puka he’s done me a huge solid this year.

when dealing with these deeper sleepers if you can hit on anywhere close to 50% of your predictions you've done better than most of your so called experts.

I cant fault him on the occasional miss.

 

[Insein]

There's a guy every year that you target at the draft and say "I'll take a flyer on him oh but wait here's a journeyman that might get more snaps than this unknown so I'll take him instead."

I had 3 chances to draft him and still could have picked him up pre week 1. Now I'll get to see how much everyone else values this guy with their faab.

 

[Gatorman]

There's a guy every year that you target at the draft and say "I'll take a flyer on him oh but wait here's a journeyman that might get more snaps than this unknown so I'll take him instead."

I had 3 chances to draft him and still could have picked him up pre week 1. Now I'll get to see how much everyone else values this guy with their faab.

Same here. Took a flier on Mims over him and drafted JuJu for f's sake. Now looking to bid about 30% + of FAAB money for someone no one else saw coming...

 

[Insein]

There's a guy every year that you target at the draft and say "I'll take a flyer on him oh but wait here's a journeyman that might get more snaps than this unknown so I'll take him instead."

I had 3 chances to draft him and still could have picked him up pre week 1. Now I'll get to see how much everyone else values this guy with their faab.

Same here. Took a flier on Mims over him and drafted JuJu for f's sake. Now looking to bid about 30% + of FAAB money for someone no one else saw coming...

Alex Pierce and DJ Chark here. Wtf was I thinking? I blame the 95° weather and my 5th beer.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

 

[Ray_T]

There's a guy every year that you target at the draft and say "I'll take a flyer on him oh but wait here's a journeyman that might get more snaps than this unknown so I'll take him instead."

I had 3 chances to draft him and still could have picked him up pre week 1. Now I'll get to see how much everyone else values this guy with their faab.

I have found those mediocre players are always on the wire. better to take the chance in the last 2 or 3 picks of the draft (or auction)

 

[Gatorman]

There's a guy every year that you target at the draft and say "I'll take a flyer on him oh but wait here's a journeyman that might get more snaps than this unknown so I'll take him instead."

I had 3 chances to draft him and still could have picked him up pre week 1. Now I'll get to see how much everyone else values this guy with their faab.

I have found those mediocre players are always on the wire. better to take the chance in the last 2 or 3 picks of the draft (or auction)

If only I had a time machine. Can somone please re=post this a week before my drafts in 2024... (I'm old and will forget again and take another old slot guy again over Marvin Harrison Jr or something...)

 

[Gatorman]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

 

[heckmanm]

There's a guy every year that you target at the draft and say "I'll take a flyer on him oh but wait here's a journeyman that might get more snaps than this unknown so I'll take him instead."

I had 3 chances to draft him and still could have picked him up pre week 1. Now I'll get to see how much everyone else values this guy with their faab.

I had him in the back of my mind, but ended up grabbing Tank Dell first. Then I found myself running out of roster slots and grabbed Sean Tucker to handcuff Rachaad White for my last spot.

Ended up trading Dell to get him. With the league structure I take a slight hit on how long I can keep him, but decided to pull the trigger.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over and rotate prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

I’d up it to 50+

Someone’s paying 50% for him. It might as well be you.

 

[DeaLerZ]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Yea I am definitely going over $50 for him.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over and rotate prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

I’d up it to 50+

Someone’s paying 50% for him. It might as well be you.

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Yea I am definitely going over $50 for him.

Crap! You guys might be right.

EDIT — Changed to $53.

 

[efactor]

There's a guy every year that you target at the draft and say "I'll take a flyer on him oh but wait here's a journeyman that might get more snaps than this unknown so I'll take him instead."

I had 3 chances to draft him and still could have picked him up pre week 1. Now I'll get to see how much everyone else values this guy with their faab.

Same here. Took a flier on Mims over him and drafted JuJu for f's sake. Now looking to bid about 30% + of FAAB money for someone no one else saw coming...

lol. Same here

5th round pick. Who knew? Someone can say "I told you" but they also probably "told you" on a bunch of guys who missed.

Anyway, hope he can stay fantasy relevant all season. Nothing that he did said it was a fluky performance

 

[LawFitz]

What's up with Kupp? Are we expecting him to miss more than a few games?

 

[RenegadeRoy]

What's up with Kupp? Are we expecting him to miss more than a few games?

Well he's at least missing 3 more. But given how unclear this injury is, could be more. Could be something he tries to play on but isn't 100%.

 

[Insein]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over and rotate prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

I’d up it to 50+

Someone’s paying 50% for him. It might as well be you.

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Yea I am definitely going over $50 for him.

Crap! You guys might be right.

EDIT — Changed to $53.

As always you have to know your league too. My league only had 5 guys use more than 60% of their yearly FAAB. Of those only 2 used all of it (me and one other guy). One guy didn't use any all year. We tried explaining it to him but he just doesn't do it.

 

[Gatorman]

What's up with Kupp? Are we expecting him to miss more than a few games?

Well he's at least missing 3 more. But given how unclear this injury is, could be more. Could be something he tries to play on but isn't 100%.

I'm in 3 leagues where either Puka or Tutu is available. A lot of assumptions here, but:

1) Kupp cannot have a setback (and if Puka is ballin' do they let Kupp rest that hammy even more?)
2) While Puka and Kupp have some overlap in their game, McVay is a smart enough coach to exploit both of them being on the field.
3) Tutu may have more "stand alone" value than Puka, so if both are on waivers, make a bid on both and somewhere in the same vicinity.
4) EXPECT SOME REGRESSION VS THE NINERS THIS WEEK. If either guy goes off vs that D, then its Anquon Boldin part deux.

 

[Gatorman]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over and rotate prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

I’d up it to 50+

Someone’s paying 50% for him. It might as well be you.

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Yea I am definitely going over $50 for him.

Crap! You guys might be right.

EDIT — Changed to $53.

As always you have to know your league too. My league only had 5 guys use more than 60% of their yearly FAAB. Of those only 2 used all of it (me and one other guy). One guy didn't use any all year. We tried explaining it to him but he just doesn't do it.

I went back and looked at the math for first week pickups in my league (going back through 5 years of data). No one spent more than 28%, but I think this is a different case. I'm cool going up to a certain number and if someone uses a higher percentage than that I wish them good fortune in the wars to come. I'm also not going to kick myself if I overspend for him either.

 

[Deamon]

If anyone's have already gone through, please let us know here!

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over and rotate prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

I’d up it to 50+

Someone’s paying 50% for him. It might as well be you.

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Yea I am definitely going over $50 for him.

Crap! You guys might be right.

EDIT — Changed to $53.

As always you have to know your league too. My league only had 5 guys use more than 60% of their yearly FAAB. Of those only 2 used all of it (me and one other guy). One guy didn't use any all year. We tried explaining it to him but he just doesn't do it.

I went back and looked at the math for first week pickups in my league (going back through 5 years of data). No one spent more than 28%, but I think this is a different case. I'm cool going up to a certain number and if someone uses a higher percentage than that I wish them good fortune in the wars to come. I'm also not going to kick myself if I overspend for him either.

Yeah! Second guessing decisions is a real loser. Poker legend Annie Duke calls this resulting. It’s okay to examine decisions for mistakes but oh boy I never beat myself up for making the best decision I can with the information I have at the time.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over and rotate prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

I’d up it to 50+

Someone’s paying 50% for him. It might as well be you.

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Yea I am definitely going over $50 for him.

Crap! You guys might be right.

EDIT — Changed to $53.

As always you have to know your league too. My league only had 5 guys use more than 60% of their yearly FAAB. Of those only 2 used all of it (me and one other guy). One guy didn't use any all year. We tried explaining it to him but he just doesn't do it.

I used this exact methodology in a 16 team Dynasty I took over an orphan in.

I studied the ww reports for the prior season and adjusted down my bids from that.

…and missed every single player I’d bid on.


Puka is a WR1 while Kupp is out and at worst a wr3 when he returns, IMO

Bid accordingly

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

If anyone's have already gone through, please let us know here!

Nice! Thread subscribed!

 

[DeaLerZ]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over and rotate prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

I’d up it to 50+

Someone’s paying 50% for him. It might as well be you.

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Yea I am definitely going over $50 for him.

Crap! You guys might be right.

EDIT — Changed to $53.

As always you have to know your league too. My league only had 5 guys use more than 60% of their yearly FAAB. Of those only 2 used all of it (me and one other guy). One guy didn't use any all year. We tried explaining it to him but he just doesn't do it.

I used this exact methodology in a 16 team Dynasty I took over an orphan in.

I studied the ww reports for the prior season and adjusted down my bids from that.

…and missed every single player I’d bid on.


Puka is a WR1 while Kupp is out and at worst a wr3 when he returns, IMO

Bid accordingly

It is not a good feeling when you wake up wednesday morning at 5am and see that you were outbid. I always spend when I see a guy I want. I trust that if I am willing to spend that means I took an educated risk. Puka has the ability to win your league, you have to spend for that kind of potential. There might only be handful of guys all year with that kind of potential, and who knows if it happens again? A lot of those type of guys are usually already rostered.

These kind of risks do not always work out, but sometimes they will. Not to mention if you stay on top of news throughout the season their will be opportunities from Wednesday to Sunday morning to pick up players for FREE. For example I had $0 last year left in FAAB, and picked up D'onta Foreman 2 hours before Christian McCaffrey was traded the 49ers because of reports that I was paying attention too. Foreman definitely helped me win 2 to 3 weeks last year

You can still make it work even if you spend all your money and it doesn't work out

I am spending all my money on Joshua Kelley and Puka Nacua. If I get outbid than I get outbid. If I spend all my money than I got 2 guys that I think can really help my roster, and filled some big holes.

 

[eighsse2]

In dynasty, there's no way I should try to get one of Puka or Tutu if I have to drop Bateman or Geno Smith, right?

12 team, 20-man, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 0 TE, 1 FX, K, DST, PPR 6pt all TD

 

[jurrassic]

Do we think the Rams o-line and Stafford will hold up for the whole season? This is gauging week one breakout vs. week one fluke. I'm tempted to bid up, because rarely do you get waiver wire wrs who are worth it. However, week one fluke wrs are a yearly occurrence in fantasy football.

 

[titusbramble]

What's up with Kupp? Are we expecting him to miss more than a few games?

The point isn't that we are expecting Kupp to miss games, we knew that already - the point is that Nacua has shown more in one game than the entire non-Kupp WR room has shown in their combined careers, and we are not concerned about how Kupp (maybe) returning will affect Nacua's value

 

[DeaLerZ]

Do we think the Rams o-line and Stafford will hold up for the whole season? This is gauging week one breakout vs. week one fluke. I'm tempted to bid up, because rarely do you get waiver wire wrs who are worth it. However, week one fluke wrs are a yearly occurrence in fantasy football.

43 drop backs and 0 sacks seems like a pretty good sample size so far showing that they will atleast be somewhat better

 

[RenegadeRoy]

2) While Puka and Kupp have some overlap in their game, McVay is a smart enough coach to exploit both of them being on the field.
3) Tutu may have more "stand alone" value than Puka, so if both are on waivers, make a bid on both and somewhere in the same vicinity.

Tutu plays the slot where Kupp primarily plays. IMO Tutu has much more to lose with Kupp's return that Puka.

 

[taylormeetstheismann]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over and rotate prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

I’d up it to 50+

Someone’s paying 50% for him. It might as well be you.

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Yea I am definitely going over $50 for him.

Crap! You guys might be right.

EDIT — Changed to $53.

As always you have to know your league too. My league only had 5 guys use more than 60% of their yearly FAAB. Of those only 2 used all of it (me and one other guy). One guy didn't use any all year. We tried explaining it to him but he just doesn't do it.

I used this exact methodology in a 16 team Dynasty I took over an orphan in.

I studied the ww reports for the prior season and adjusted down my bids from that.

…and missed every single player I’d bid on.


Puka is a WR1 while Kupp is out and at worst a wr3 when he returns, IMO

Bid accordingly

It is not a good feeling when you wake up wednesday morning at 5am and see that you were outbid. I always spend when I see a guy I want. I trust that if I am willing to spend that means I took an educated risk. Puka has the ability to win your league, you have to spend for that kind of potential. There might only be handful of guys all year with that kind of potential, and who knows if it happens again? A lot of those type of guys are usually already rostered.

These kind of risks do not always work out, but sometimes they will. Not to mention if you stay on top of news throughout the season their will be opportunities from Wednesday to Sunday morning to pick up players for FREE. For example I had $0 last year left in FAAB, and picked up D'onta Foreman 2 hours before Christian McCaffrey was traded the 49ers because of reports that I was paying attention too. Foreman definitely helped me win 2 to 3 weeks last year

You can still make it work even if you spend all your money and it doesn't work out

I am spending all my money on Joshua Kelley and Puka Nacua. If I get outbid than I get outbid. If I spend all my money than I got 2 guys that I think can really help my roster, and filled some big holes.

We have a lot in common. Spending all my FAAB dollars and getting 2-3 players I really want (no matter the other bid amounts) is a win in my book. I definitely don’t want to constantly be coming in second or third on bids and failing to take a chance on improving my team. I can get mediocre players for spot starts on waivers all day long for free. But a decent chance at grabbing top tier talent is not an opportunity I want to miss.

A big big reason I think Nacua is a good waivers gamble for a very high bid is the rarity of 10 catches for 119 yards in a debut as explored earlier. It’s almost unprecedented.

Hmmm…. You’re that strong on JKelley? Is the thinking that…if there is a good chance AEkeler is out or limited for a few weeks and or possibly the injury lingers and he’s out or limited for a long period, then JKelley is effectively the #1 RB for LAC?

 

[RenegadeRoy]

Hmmm…. You’re that strong on JKelley? Is the thinking that…if there is a good chance AEkeler is out or limited for a few weeks and or possibly the injury lingers and he’s out or limited for a long period, then JKelley is effectively the #1 RB for LAC?

I think the LAC offense is pretty good (aka the will be winning more often than not) and if they're ahead they're going to use Kelley to preserve Ekeler. Even if not ahead, Kelley is an adequet backup for Ekeler who has a good amount of wear (aka they might might to limit touches). If Ekeler gets injured he could be huge.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

What's up with Kupp? Are we expecting him to miss more than a few games?

The point isn't that we are expecting Kupp to miss games, we knew that already - the point is that Nacua has shown more in one game than the entire non-Kupp WR room has shown in their combined careers, and we are not concerned about how Kupp (maybe) returning will affect Nacua's value

This

 

[DeaLerZ]

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over and rotate prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

I’d up it to 50+

Someone’s paying 50% for him. It might as well be you.

I settled on $44 for Nacua. However, I’m very weak at WR so I think it’s worth the gamble.

is that 40%? Seems about right.

Yes. $44 out of $100. However, I’m being aggressive here because…

1) I strongly believe in hitting waivers hard in the earlier weeks to grab emerging talent. I’d like a shot a 2-3 of the very best waiver options in the first month if possible and I’ll use all my money to acquire them. Hopefully at least one will pan out. Especially if I’m weak at a position which is the case for me this year at WR. (Actually it’s the case for me every year as I over rotate to prioritize RBs on draft day and that leaves me weaker at WR. I’d rather work waivers for emerging WRs than for emerging RBs. I see weekly waivers as the in-season draft.)

2) I further believe that conservative bidding ultimately leads to missing out on most waiver requests. I’d rather use my gunpowder and beat other owners on my waiver requests more often than not. My goal is to get better players on waivers and I accept that means I’ll get fewer players.

3) Waivers money not used by the end of the year is a waste. In example, it’s bad to finish the year with $30-40 unspent dollars. I always finish broke or near broke. Playoffs Or Bust!

4) I have a high risk tolerance and I’m willing to gamble on a rookie WR with a HUGE day in his debut. 10 catches on 15 targets for a debut is incredibly rare. Personally I ignore TDs in my evaluation. I focus on targets and touches. If Puka Nicua has only a 15-20% chance of finishing in the Top 20 WRs, I‘ll take those odds for $44. I’m gunning for players with big upside on waivers as, in most cases, I’m acquiring them for my starting lineup not my bench. I accept that I may spend big bucks and end up with a bust.

5) I’m decision-oriented not results-oriented. Just like in poker. I assess the odds as best I can and I don’t second guess myself later no matter the result.

EDIT — And I might up it from $44 to as much as $51 or $53. Still undecided but I’ve submitted $44 so far. If my gut has a different answer tonight, I’ll adjust accordingly.

Yea I am definitely going over $50 for him.

Crap! You guys might be right.

EDIT — Changed to $53.

As always you have to know your league too. My league only had 5 guys use more than 60% of their yearly FAAB. Of those only 2 used all of it (me and one other guy). One guy didn't use any all year. We tried explaining it to him but he just doesn't do it.

I used this exact methodology in a 16 team Dynasty I took over an orphan in.

I studied the ww reports for the prior season and adjusted down my bids from that.

…and missed every single player I’d bid on.


Puka is a WR1 while Kupp is out and at worst a wr3 when he returns, IMO

Bid accordingly

It is not a good feeling when you wake up wednesday morning at 5am and see that you were outbid. I always spend when I see a guy I want. I trust that if I am willing to spend that means I took an educated risk. Puka has the ability to win your league, you have to spend for that kind of potential. There might only be handful of guys all year with that kind of potential, and who knows if it happens again? A lot of those type of guys are usually already rostered.

These kind of risks do not always work out, but sometimes they will. Not to mention if you stay on top of news throughout the season their will be opportunities from Wednesday to Sunday morning to pick up players for FREE. For example I had $0 last year left in FAAB, and picked up D'onta Foreman 2 hours before Christian McCaffrey was traded the 49ers because of reports that I was paying attention too. Foreman definitely helped me win 2 to 3 weeks last year

You can still make it work even if you spend all your money and it doesn't work out

I am spending all my money on Joshua Kelley and Puka Nacua. If I get outbid than I get outbid. If I spend all my money than I got 2 guys that I think can really help my roster, and filled some big holes.

We have a lot in common. Spending all my FAAB dollars and getting 2-3 players I really want (no matter the other bid amounts) is a win in my book. I definitely don’t want to constantly be coming in second or third on bids and failing to take a chance on improving my team. I can get mediocre players for spot starts on waivers all day long for free. But a decent chance at grabbing top tier talent is not an opportunity I want to miss.

A big big reason I think Nacua is a good waivers gamble for a very high bid is the rarity of 10 catches for 119 yards in a debut as explored earlier. It’s almost unprecedented.

Hmmm…. You’re that strong on JKelley? Is the thinking that…if there is a good chance AEkeler is out or limited for a few weeks and or possibly the injury lingers and he’s out or limited for a long period, then JKelley is effectively the #1 RB for LAC?

Kelley was a guy that I was on before the season started because of "Kellen Moore". He loves to use a two back system like he did in Dallas with Elliot/Pollard. I believe Kelley will be more of a 1B in this offense because Moore loves to run the ball. I know he got more work because of Ekeler's ankle last game, but either way 16 carries and 17 routes run in a close game vs Miami shows that they want to use two running backs in that system. I was listening to a podcast today, and there were talking about how the Chargers led the nfl week 1 in terms of running the ball with neutral game script, and ran the ball on 67% of their plays.

The other big thing is this year he has looked great. He may see some goal line work. He can also catch passes. Kellen Moore said early on in the off-season that he wanted to use another RB to compliment Ekeler. Kelley has absolutely taken those words and "ran" with them so far.

The Chargers are going to continue to want to run the ball. Defenses play cover 2 against Justin Herbert because they don't want to allow the big play, which means more room for the run. So he has some standalone value as a flex, and if Ekeler were to miss time he has top 12 upside. Ekeler is already banged up, which is I wish he wasn't because now you have to pay even more for Kelley

 

[skinsrule05]

I am going $40 on him, but I am WR poor. We will see if it was enough at 3:00 CDT tomorrow morning.

One league waivers went last night. He went for $21 ($100 cap). Next bid was $16.

I didn't really bid on him (did $6) since I am strong at WR.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

One league waivers went last night. He went for $21 ($100 cap). Next bid was $16.

Yeah, every league is different.

Some leagues there will be teams with high concentrations of early week bust WR. Other leagues will be more balanced.

Depends on how many in the league view him as a “nice to have” vs “need to have”.

 

[RenegadeRoy]

One league waivers went last night. He went for $21 ($100 cap). Next bid was $16.

Yeah, every league is different.

Some leagues there will be teams with high concentrations of early week bust WR. Other leagues will be more balanced.

Depends on how many in the league view him as a “nice to have” vs “need to have”.

Feel like a lot of teams are going to be pressing the panic button at WR: Kupp out, Diontae hurt, GWilson QB downgrade, CIN lookin rough, etc

 

[FarFromHome]

Howzit. Small kine problem with da Puka. Da Haole dig mo bettah make choke pilikia.

 

[(HULK)]

I like the kid a lot but over 50% of your budget?? There will be other players you want on waivers.

I talked myself up to bidding $27 of my $100. While he seems great, he can easily end up being a WR3\4\Flex kinda guy, which is helpful but not league winning helpful. I just can't do 50%+ like some of you are.

 

[skinsrule05]

I like the kid a lot but over 50% of your budget?? There will be other players you want on waivers.

I talked myself up to bidding $27 of my $100. While he seems great, he can easily end up being a WR3\4\Flex kinda guy, which is helpful but not league winning helpful. I just can't do 50%+ like some of you are.

I agree with you. For one league that is running tonight I am bidding $31 but I lost Kupp.

 

[DeaLerZ]

I like the kid a lot but over 50% of your budget?? There will be other players you want on waivers.

I talked myself up to bidding $27 of my $100. While he seems great, he can easily end up being a WR3\4\Flex kinda guy, which is helpful but not league winning helpful. I just can't do 50%+ like some of you are.

It's the talent, combined with the opportunity, the ???? about Kupp, and the targets. For reference there were only 25x last year that a player had 15 targets or more. The fact that he did that in his first career game against what was supposed to be an improved defense shows that Stafford already has great rapport with him, and that he is open all the time. While Kupp has been injured all of August Puka has been getting all those reps with Stafford

Again he was ranked #1 in WR efficiency last year, was PFF's #1 ranked WR, and only had 3 drops. There was a reason he did that well with his opportunity. He is legit.