I bought 50 shares at $84 recently and will add 50 more once I free up some cash. I expect it to be a long term hold for me.
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Stock Thread (9 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I agree but damn that thing has been a drain on conservative portfolios
culdeus
Footballguy
Can someone explain the airlines to me? The travel market seems to still be very high right now, yet most of the airlines are sitting near 10-year lows. Near covid lows. United Airlines has a P/E ratio of 4
Is it all just oil?
Anticipating skyrocketing costs to pay the staff, oil, and the price of all the parts and new planes are skyrocketing. It is really hard to comprehend whether biz travel is "back".it would seem a lot of travel now is early planned and cheap.
Sand
Footballguy
The US can't afford the interest on this debt. Rates gotta break back down at some point. Bought at 85 and if it drops 8% I'm averaging down.
Falling knife at the moment. Somehow I never notice the already missing digits and buy this stuff as it free falls.
Sand
Footballguy
Value trap. Over the entire course of recorded history airlines have always been a value trap. Pretty sure Cicero has a treatise on this.Can someone explain the airlines to me? The travel market seems to still be very high right now, yet most of the airlines are sitting near 10-year lows. Near covid lows. United Airlines has a P/E ratio of 4
Is it all just oil?
Anticipating skyrocketing costs to pay the staff, oil, and the price of all the parts and new planes are skyrocketing. It is really hard to comprehend whether biz travel is "back".it would seem a lot of travel now is early planned and cheap.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Yeah, they’re a lot like oil stocks. When they seem really cheap it’s time to get out because the bottom is about to fall out.Value trap. Over the entire course of recorded history airlines have always been a value trap. Pretty sure Cicero has a treatise on this.Can someone explain the airlines to me? The travel market seems to still be very high right now, yet most of the airlines are sitting near 10-year lows. Near covid lows. United Airlines has a P/E ratio of 4
Is it all just oil?
Anticipating skyrocketing costs to pay the staff, oil, and the price of all the parts and new planes are skyrocketing. It is really hard to comprehend whether biz travel is "back".it would seem a lot of travel now is early planned and cheap.
Can someone explain the airlines to me? The travel market seems to still be very high right now, yet most of the airlines are sitting near 10-year lows. Near covid lows. United Airlines has a P/E ratio of 4
Is it all just oil?
Speaking anecdotally, but I have heard from numerous folks that domestic travel demand is cratering. There was a ton of pent-up demand after COVID and that has died down as people got those delayed vacations out of the way. Business travel died during Covid and a lot of people think its never coming back.
Pretty significant downturn this week. I thought we were gonna get some stabilization between now and the end of the year but it’s feeling like the sell-off is happening. Vanguard is offering over 5% on their money market so I moved a lot into that (along with lots of other like-minded folks.) I’m in the camp that the next x months with sustained high interest rates are going to bring this market to its knees. What’s the over/under on x, 15 or so?
Todem
Footballguy
Over the course of 2023 I have now built 35% cash in my taxable portfolio...not from selling anything (well I sold a couple of positions this year in BA and BX).....purely putting away cash every month into a 5% money market. On Monday I will invest 5% of that into my master list.
Will sit on that 30% at 5% and keep building cash each month.
My 401K and IRA’s are 100% invested and I am maxing out my 401K as usual.
Will sit on that 30% at 5% and keep building cash each month.
My 401K and IRA’s are 100% invested and I am maxing out my 401K as usual.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
It ain't Dec 31st yet!
Todem
Footballguy
November and December we will see a pretty decent rally heading into year end. I think we see the July highs by year end.
1st half of 2024 a major bond market rally.
4th quarter 2024 the Fed starts easing and we will be off to traces again in equities with a new cyclical bull market.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Might be worth pointing out gold knocking on the floor of $2,000/oz right now.
Silver still at $23, which feels like a level it's been at since we all used low def TVs.
Silver still at $23, which feels like a level it's been at since we all used low def TVs.
culdeus
Footballguy
Help me understand how bond market rallies if you can stuff cash in a vanguard mattress at 5% and chill. (100% tone here is conciliatory btw)
Todem
Footballguy
Once the bond market truly gets the all clear on interest rates going up….you will see a huge rally in intermediate and long term bond prices to lock in the 4-5% coupon bonds that have been hit. This will be in anticipation of rate cuts coming In the late back half of 2024.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
Desert_Power
Footballguy
~5% return on cash is very hard to turn down. I've started adding duration in size in my retirement accounts, but would still hesitate to do so in taxable ones.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Puru Saxena (no clue who he is) had a good recent Twitter post, thought I’d share. Thoughts?
-- Thoughts on this stock market cycle --
This stock market cycle has been super tricky due to the pandemic, trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus and "helicopter money" sent to households - all of which have had a major impact on both the economy and asset prices.
ZIRP, unprecedented QE, Fed's dovish comments and "helicopter money" created an epic asset bubble in 2021 which popped later that year. This was to be expected.
Then, as the Fed ramped up interest-rates in 2022 and embarked on QT, stocks declined sharply with the most speculative names hit the hardest - this was also to be expected.
Now we get to the tricky bits -
In autumn 2022, the Bank of England's response to the gilt market crisis injected liquidity into the system and this coincided with the start of best 6-month period of the US Presidential Cycle (October 2022-April 2023).
Back then, the US inflation rate started trending in the right direction, the economy remained strong and seasonality became a strong tailwind for equities. To complicate the post-bubble contraction further, around the same time, ChatGPT went viral and optimism towards AI + LLMs reignited animal spirits.
Based on the above factors, $NDX bottomed late last year and the mega-cap tech stocks "Magnificent 7" took off. The Fed's liquidity injections earlier this year (in response to the regional banking crisis) further fuelled the rally and during the best 6-month period of the US Presidential Cycle (October 2022-April 2023), AI related stocks went parabolic. It is worth noting that during this period, most stocks did not rally hard and this is *not* consistent with the start of a new bull-market.
During H1 2023, the US debt ceiling standoff also helped the liquidity picture and pushed up equities as the drawdown in the Treasury General Account helped offset the Fed's balance-sheet reduction.
By mid-year, the debt ceiling agreement was reached and the US Treasury's issuance of vast quantities of new supply hit the market and started sucking liquidity from the system. At the beginning of August, Fitch downgraded US government debt, which pushed bond yields higher and further exacerbated the sell-off in US Treasuries.
So, we are now in a situation where the bond market has already largely adjusted but the stock market (at least at the index level) is still elevated. Make no mistake, most stocks have already suffered somewhat - just look at $ARKK $IWM $IWO $SPXEW retailers, utilities etc - they are all flat to down YTD and some are at 52-week lows - but the "Magnificent 7" are still holding up $COMPQ $NDX $SPX for now.
In the investment business, nothing is set in stone but history shows that whenever the market's breadth gets extremely weak, the last men standing also get shot and bring down the major indices.
On the economic front, various leading indicators which have been very reliable for decades are suggesting that a hard landing is knocking on the door and the ugly part of the credit cycle lies ahead. According to my work, a severe recession in '24 is the probable outcome and if this plays out, the upside in stocks is fairly limited.
Stocks are currently oversold so at some point in Q4, we are likely to see a relief rally but if decades of history is any guide, the next major move in stocks will be to the downside. This is due to the fact that valuations are still very rich given the risk free rate and Wall Street is still positioned for 12% EPS growth next year. During recessions, earnings decline sharply and multiples also contract which is why there is a real risk of a major sell-off in stocks over the next 9-12 months.
IMHO, the business/credit cycle isn't dead - it has just been elongated due to post-COVID stimulus and once the "excess savings" are gone, US consumers will have to deal with very high interest rates, record credit card debt and a low personal savings rate and we are also likely to see a wave of corporate defaults.
The chickens are coming home to roost and the next 9-12 months are likely to be tricky for the economy and the stock market. Unlike the recent stock market cycles post the TMT bust (which unfolded in a disinflationary era), in this cycle, because of elevated inflation and reputational risk, the Fed will likely stay on hold for far too long and it'll ease reluctantly; and this raises the risk that the coming economic and stock market downturns might be quite severe.
The yield on the 1-Year T-Bill is currently 5.41% and this seems like a decent option given the storm clouds on the horizon.
-- Thoughts on this stock market cycle --
This stock market cycle has been super tricky due to the pandemic, trillions of dollars of fiscal stimulus and "helicopter money" sent to households - all of which have had a major impact on both the economy and asset prices.
ZIRP, unprecedented QE, Fed's dovish comments and "helicopter money" created an epic asset bubble in 2021 which popped later that year. This was to be expected.
Then, as the Fed ramped up interest-rates in 2022 and embarked on QT, stocks declined sharply with the most speculative names hit the hardest - this was also to be expected.
Now we get to the tricky bits -
In autumn 2022, the Bank of England's response to the gilt market crisis injected liquidity into the system and this coincided with the start of best 6-month period of the US Presidential Cycle (October 2022-April 2023).
Back then, the US inflation rate started trending in the right direction, the economy remained strong and seasonality became a strong tailwind for equities. To complicate the post-bubble contraction further, around the same time, ChatGPT went viral and optimism towards AI + LLMs reignited animal spirits.
Based on the above factors, $NDX bottomed late last year and the mega-cap tech stocks "Magnificent 7" took off. The Fed's liquidity injections earlier this year (in response to the regional banking crisis) further fuelled the rally and during the best 6-month period of the US Presidential Cycle (October 2022-April 2023), AI related stocks went parabolic. It is worth noting that during this period, most stocks did not rally hard and this is *not* consistent with the start of a new bull-market.
During H1 2023, the US debt ceiling standoff also helped the liquidity picture and pushed up equities as the drawdown in the Treasury General Account helped offset the Fed's balance-sheet reduction.
By mid-year, the debt ceiling agreement was reached and the US Treasury's issuance of vast quantities of new supply hit the market and started sucking liquidity from the system. At the beginning of August, Fitch downgraded US government debt, which pushed bond yields higher and further exacerbated the sell-off in US Treasuries.
So, we are now in a situation where the bond market has already largely adjusted but the stock market (at least at the index level) is still elevated. Make no mistake, most stocks have already suffered somewhat - just look at $ARKK $IWM $IWO $SPXEW retailers, utilities etc - they are all flat to down YTD and some are at 52-week lows - but the "Magnificent 7" are still holding up $COMPQ $NDX $SPX for now.
In the investment business, nothing is set in stone but history shows that whenever the market's breadth gets extremely weak, the last men standing also get shot and bring down the major indices.
On the economic front, various leading indicators which have been very reliable for decades are suggesting that a hard landing is knocking on the door and the ugly part of the credit cycle lies ahead. According to my work, a severe recession in '24 is the probable outcome and if this plays out, the upside in stocks is fairly limited.
Stocks are currently oversold so at some point in Q4, we are likely to see a relief rally but if decades of history is any guide, the next major move in stocks will be to the downside. This is due to the fact that valuations are still very rich given the risk free rate and Wall Street is still positioned for 12% EPS growth next year. During recessions, earnings decline sharply and multiples also contract which is why there is a real risk of a major sell-off in stocks over the next 9-12 months.
IMHO, the business/credit cycle isn't dead - it has just been elongated due to post-COVID stimulus and once the "excess savings" are gone, US consumers will have to deal with very high interest rates, record credit card debt and a low personal savings rate and we are also likely to see a wave of corporate defaults.
The chickens are coming home to roost and the next 9-12 months are likely to be tricky for the economy and the stock market. Unlike the recent stock market cycles post the TMT bust (which unfolded in a disinflationary era), in this cycle, because of elevated inflation and reputational risk, the Fed will likely stay on hold for far too long and it'll ease reluctantly; and this raises the risk that the coming economic and stock market downturns might be quite severe.
The yield on the 1-Year T-Bill is currently 5.41% and this seems like a decent option given the storm clouds on the horizon.
Sand
Footballguy
Economy is off the hook these days, growing at an annualized 4.3%. You'd think this would be a good thing, but we live in the upside down these days. If you're quiet enough you can hear Jerome Powell's sphincter tightening.
fortune.com
America's economic hot streak is just warming up as early data suggests the fastest growth in nearly 2 years during 3Q
GDP advanced at a 4.3% annualized pace from July through September, according to the median projection in a Bloomberg survey.
Capella
Footballguy
How are they still in business
kevzilla
Footballguy
Pretty good report. Down 2% tomorrowVisa rallying into the number
Capella
Footballguy
This is the way
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Honest question - if you think we see a "pretty decent" equity rally in the next two months, why are you staying 30% in cash in your taxable accounts? Just curious on your thinking. TIA!
Todem
Footballguy
Who says I will stay in that......Today I added more GOOGL.
Building cash is good thing at 5% return on cash.....and being tactical with it when opportunity strikes in individual equites.....is how we roll in our “taxable account"
My IRA/401K’s are fully invested.....always. Very rare when I build or created cash in those. Last time I did that was 2019. And put it all in March 2020.
In my taxable account I am far more tactical. So this year we have been putting away new cash every month into high yielding money market funds and buying on dips on stocks in the master list.
For all I know....and with this Middle East war getting more serious as time moves forward, we could see a flash dip and move it all in.
But having dry powder is never a bad thing.
Again I did not liquidate anything in my portfolio to build this cash (other than BA early in the year)......it was all new money.
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Capella
Footballguy
Amazon reports tomorrow so I guess it doesn’t really matter. It will either be a good report and we are down 3% or it will be a terrible report and we are down 20%.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Or it's inline with expectations and we lose it all.
Yeah, no ****. Frustrating some times. Slight miss for Google on it’s cloud service which has always been a laggard to Amazon and Microsoft and somehow that is bad for Amazon? Google and Snap both good for advertising but that isn’t helping Amazon who’s 3rd in that behind Google and Meta in that. Why isn’t Microsoft’s cloud result rubbing off on Amazon since they are much closer than Google.
Getting crushed today by Google who actually beat revenue and earnings. Always fun.
jwb
Footballguy
At this point, I think people are just looking for a reason to bail. While far from gospel, the overall market technicals look terrible. It's just AI optimism keeping things afloat, but barring any real whiz-bang "this changes everything" announcement, we're probably due for more pain. Lots of dips to buy I guess.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Thank you. I have some sales commissions, RSUs vesting, and an ESPP buy all coming up between now and the end of the year that’ll give me a decent chunk to invest, and thinking about what I’m going to do with it all (outside of selling many of the shares I get from my current employer and diversifying. )
Todem
Footballguy
Great day to add more shares of GOOGL.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
GOOGL only gave back around 1 month's worth of gains. It's still up 40% (roughly half a trillion in market cap) on the year.
A lot of its run-up was just the AI hype train, even though their AI is way lousier than it should be with as much of a data advantage as they have.
A lot of its run-up was just the AI hype train, even though their AI is way lousier than it should be with as much of a data advantage as they have.
Todem
Footballguy
It is still on a forward multiple, one of the cheaper Mega cap tech stocks along with META.
Yeah but don’t forget that the end of the year was really close to the bottom. Everything is up on the year. I also think their cloud stuff is way behind the others, which is why it’s annoying to have Amazon driven so much by Google results.
Hate the company, hate the industry, hate everything about it. Obviously a screaming buy
Capella
Footballguy
Amazon blew past analyst expectations for revenue and earnings in the third quarter.
Revenue climbed 13% in the quarter, a sign that the business is seeing some acceleration after a difficult 2022 that was marred by soaring inflation and rising interest rates.
Down 2% lol
Revenue climbed 13% in the quarter, a sign that the business is seeing some acceleration after a difficult 2022 that was marred by soaring inflation and rising interest rates.
Down 2% lol
Up 5% now. I have zero clue WTF is going on now.
kevzilla
Footballguy
Todem
Footballguy
GIS - way off the high and the price is nice for a long term hold on this staple giant.
DE - probably my most bullish pick of the three. 10 times forward multiple…phenomenal mid cap growth company here.
GOOGL/META - of the mega techs GOOGL and META represent the best price here. Of course picking them up near the end of the tech wreck was ideal…..but new money I have is going into these two.
Good value to me folks in these 4 names.
DE - probably my most bullish pick of the three. 10 times forward multiple…phenomenal mid cap growth company here.
GOOGL/META - of the mega techs GOOGL and META represent the best price here. Of course picking them up near the end of the tech wreck was ideal…..but new money I have is going into these two.
Good value to me folks in these 4 names.
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