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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (1 Viewer)

Ownership tonight:

Courtland Sutton - 177
Marvin Mims - 143
Wil Lutz - 120
Broncos - 90
Javonte Williams - 57
Russell Wilson - 28
Samaje Perine - 21
Jerry Jeudy - 2

Ty Chandler - 171
Jordan Addison - 115
Alexander Mattison - 82
TJ Hockenson - 78
Greg Joseph - 59
Vikings - 35
KJ Osborn - 22
 
Lots of danger for me. Sitting at 137 with Sutton/Mims (-7.7, 8.0) remaining. Both will move the line with them so thinking I need Sutton to have 22-25 or Mims to how up for the first time in forever.
 
BroncosFan07 said:
Lots of danger for me. Sitting at 137 with Sutton/Mims (-7.7, 8.0) remaining. Both will move the line with them so thinking I need Sutton to have 22-25 or Mims to how up for the first time in forever.
Click to expand...
I’m pretty much in same boat except with Sutton and Skyy Moore. I fear this is it.
 
My estimate of the current cut is 139.05.

I'm done at 150.4.

Probable high-scoring affair tomorrow.

:scream:

My estimate for the final cutline using FBG consensus projections for tomorrow night is...143.9. I feel like I must have a mistake in there...but I sure hope I don't! Is there some reason (ownership numbers) that tomorrow's game wouldn't be a big mover?

If that's where it ends up, that means the Sutton TD really did save my sorry ***.
 
Last edited:
jdkapow said:
My estimate of the current cut is 139.05.

I'm done at 150.4.

Probable high-scoring affair tomorrow.

:scream:

My estimate for the final cutline using FBG consensus projections for tomorrow night is...143.9. I feel like I must have a mistake in there...but I sure hope I don't! Is there some reason (ownership numbers) that tomorrow's game wouldn't be a big mover?

If that's where it ends up, that means the Sutton TD really did save my sorry ***.
Click to expand...
More Noah Gray owners than Kelce is the answer to your question.
 
Currently at 202.3 and done.

Not only is this the first time breaking 200 this season, it's the first time breaking 180. Not exactly sure what's changed, but my team seems to be peaking at the right time... until they all break my heart next week and I'm gone.
 
I posted these ownership numbers earlier, but decided to bump them to the front. I am done at 162.6 and there are 412 teams between me and the cutline, so I should safely advance.

167 - RB Gainwell - Hasn't gotten much work since week 3, with a high of 8 touches
119 - WR Moore - Has moved down the depth chart, and has only 9 catches over the last 6 games
102 - QB Hurts - Currently QB2 in the contest
95 - TD Philadelphia Eagles - Middle of the pack, averaging 6.4 PPG
94 - PK Elliott - If not for Dustin Hopkins, Jake would be K1
80 - RB Pacheco - 148 touches is nice, but he's only hit 100 yds combined once
72 - WR Brown - Having a monster year and will move the line
71 - TE Gray - The quiet star of the team (OK, I rostered him)
70 - QB Mahomes - Currently QB7 in the contest
58 - PK Butker - The only full-time kicker who has yet to miss a FG or EP; currently K7
54 - WR Valdes-Scantling - Is getting decent playing time, but only 1 game over 50 yards and 1 TD on the year
47 - D'Andre Swift - The clear RB1 in PHI, averaging 13 PPG
45 - WR Toney - Has become an afterthought, with only 1 target in each of the last 3 games
44 - WR Ross - On Commissioner's Exempt List, so I doubt he shows up in the box score
40 - TE Kelce - He's been a monster averaging 21.15 in his 8 games
35 - TE Goedert - Still out with his forearm
30 - WR Rice - Has established himself as the top WR, but is on only 2.9% of live roosters
27 - RB Penny - Has more contest owners than yards combined
23 - RB McKinnon - He's gonna need more than 5 touches to make a difference
23 - TD Kansas City Chiefs - Middle of the pack, averaging 7 pts a game
22 - WR Smith - Too rare to make a difference (2.1%)
14 - RB Scott - Only scraps left for Boston
11 - RB Edwards-Helaire - 9 snaps or less in the last 6 games
10 - WR Hardman - 35 receiving yards on the year; almost hit 14 yards in week 8, but he didn't
9 - WR James - On IR, so he will be a non-factor for sure
4 - QB Mariota - A complete non-factor in the scoring
 
At 146.40 with Kenneth Gainwell (-9.8) and Skyy Moore (-10.2) very likely not getting me any more points.

What do I have to root for here? Who do I need to have very quiet games?
 
Sitting at 161 and change with Gainwell (-9.8) to go. Probably safe for another week. Last big bye week hurdle is Dalton Kincaid. Hoping Zach Ertz is playing by then and that some of my sleeping giants wake up a bit.
 
jdkapow said:
My estimate of the current cut is 139.05.

I'm done at 150.4.

Probable high-scoring affair tomorrow.

:scream:

My estimate for the final cutline using FBG consensus projections for tomorrow night is...143.9. I feel like I must have a mistake in there...but I sure hope I don't! Is there some reason (ownership numbers) that tomorrow's game wouldn't be a big mover?

If that's where it ends up, that means the Sutton TD really did save my sorry ***.
Click to expand...

Could try penciling in above-average scores for Hurts, Mahomes, Brown, Kelce, Rice, etc. just to see what happens if we have a big game tonight... maybe Elliott as well.
 
150.90 + (Mahomes -6.2) ... is where I would be had I not been bounced last week.

Good luck to all you guys trying not to join me on the sidelines...
 
Stray Doug said:
jdkapow said:
My estimate of the current cut is 139.05.

I'm done at 150.4.

Probable high-scoring affair tomorrow.

:scream:

My estimate for the final cutline using FBG consensus projections for tomorrow night is...143.9. I feel like I must have a mistake in there...but I sure hope I don't! Is there some reason (ownership numbers) that tomorrow's game wouldn't be a big mover?

If that's where it ends up, that means the Sutton TD really did save my sorry ***.
Click to expand...

Could try penciling in above-average scores for Hurts, Mahomes, Brown, Kelce, Rice, etc. just to see what happens if we have a big game tonight... maybe Elliott as well.
Click to expand...
Good idea. I just put in super high numbers for everyone (50s for the QBs, 30 for Kelce/AJ, 20 for Rice/Pacheco/Swift/Smith and the kickers and Gainwell lol, and 10 for everyone else active (15 for Skyy Moore). That pushes the line to 153. I'm thinking I'll be okay.
 
jdkapow said:
Stray Doug said:
jdkapow said:
My estimate of the current cut is 139.05.

I'm done at 150.4.

Probable high-scoring affair tomorrow.

:scream:

My estimate for the final cutline using FBG consensus projections for tomorrow night is...143.9. I feel like I must have a mistake in there...but I sure hope I don't! Is there some reason (ownership numbers) that tomorrow's game wouldn't be a big mover?

If that's where it ends up, that means the Sutton TD really did save my sorry ***.
Click to expand...

Could try penciling in above-average scores for Hurts, Mahomes, Brown, Kelce, Rice, etc. just to see what happens if we have a big game tonight... maybe Elliott as well.
Click to expand...
Good idea. I just put in super high numbers for everyone (50s for the QBs, 30 for Kelce/AJ, 20 for Rice/Pacheco/Swift/Smith and the kickers and Gainwell lol, and 10 for everyone else active (15 for Skyy Moore). That pushes the line to 153. I'm thinking I'll be okay.
Click to expand...
If this takes anything more than 5 minutes of your time, don't bother but what if you put in 30's for both QBs, 30 for Kelce/AJ, 15 for RIce/Pacheco/Swift/Smith, 10 for the kickers and 6 for Gainwell and 5 for all other actives? I'm guessing the 20 you put in for Gainwell moved the line a bunch since he's the highest owned player and at a position where a lot of people are hurting for depth.
 
BroncosFan07 said:
jdkapow said:
Stray Doug said:
jdkapow said:
My estimate of the current cut is 139.05.

I'm done at 150.4.

Probable high-scoring affair tomorrow.

:scream:

My estimate for the final cutline using FBG consensus projections for tomorrow night is...143.9. I feel like I must have a mistake in there...but I sure hope I don't! Is there some reason (ownership numbers) that tomorrow's game wouldn't be a big mover?

If that's where it ends up, that means the Sutton TD really did save my sorry ***.
Click to expand...

Could try penciling in above-average scores for Hurts, Mahomes, Brown, Kelce, Rice, etc. just to see what happens if we have a big game tonight... maybe Elliott as well.
Click to expand...
Good idea. I just put in super high numbers for everyone (50s for the QBs, 30 for Kelce/AJ, 20 for Rice/Pacheco/Swift/Smith and the kickers and Gainwell lol, and 10 for everyone else active (15 for Skyy Moore). That pushes the line to 153. I'm thinking I'll be okay.
Click to expand...
If this takes anything more than 5 minutes of your time, don't bother but what if you put in 30's for both QBs, 30 for Kelce/AJ, 15 for RIce/Pacheco/Swift/Smith, 10 for the kickers and 6 for Gainwell and 5 for all other actives? I'm guessing the 20 you put in for Gainwell moved the line a bunch since he's the highest owned player and at a position where a lot of people are hurting for depth.
Click to expand...
145.3. Just a little bit higher than the FBG consensus projections which take it to 143.9.
 
I just looked at about 20 teams with Gainwell who are currently in the cut lion's vicinity, and about 1/3 he'd be replacing a score of ~3-5 points, the other 2/3 he'd be replacing a score of ~8-10 points. So as the most widely owned player tonight his impact on the cut lion really only gets significant once he gets into the double-digits.

Then did similar for Hurts (3rd most widely owned, but significant "big game" potential)... looks like his broader impact doesn't really happen until he gets north of 25-30:
2 replacing 0
3 replacing 6
9 replacing ~20
6 replacing ~25
4 replacing ~30
1 replacing ~35
1 replacing ~40
 
At this pace, Pickett outscores Hurts. This is where I get kicked off the train, apparently. Who knew, Pickett outscores Hurts. :lmao:

Might be going to bed early tonight.
 
150. Could've used a little more for insurance. Not sure how this will go. I feel safe, but very close.
 
Last edited:
Cold comfort that all of the prior entries I saved and have been tracking were worse than that 146.75 so if I'm out I'm out taking my best swing.
-QG
 
Count me in the rather large group that was saved by Courtland Sutton’s late 8.5 TD catch. As a Broncos Fan, it was double special.

Thanks to jdkapow for the running my scoring scenario earlier today as well.
 
So the good news is it looks like I'm gonna survive. The bad news of course is that Burrow's out for the season (and Walker is at best banged up).

So in an effort to see what kind of QB scores I can get with *um* Kenny Pickett, I looked at his next 3 opponents (Cincinnati, Arizona, New England).

Cincinnati has given up quite a few points, averaging 24.1 allowed with a median of 26.1
Arizona also has given up quite a few points, averaging 23.9 allowed with a median of 23.0
New England has been a little stinger though they have given up some big games. They average 20.1 allowed with a median of 18.6

The bad news of course is Pickett himself (who has also looked worse in recent weeks). He is averaging 12.9 with a median of 14.7

At this point I'd sign off on 18 a week. Hopefully my overall team depth continues to get me through.

-QG
 
Congrats to those who advanced. You guys are doing great. Not to be mean, but looking forward to the herd being thinned so i can sweat and championship run from one of the regulars here.
 
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