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2023 FBG Subscriber Contest (2 Viewers)

Today's action:
212 Raheem Mostert
112 Tua Tagovailoa
108 Jason Sanders
107 Garrett Wilson
103 Greg Zuerlein
99 Tyreek Hill
69 New York Jets
50 Tyler Conklin
45 Aaron Rodgers
27 De'Von Achane
21 Dalvin Cook
20 Randall Cobb
17 Jaylen Waddle
11 Chase Claypool
10 Allen Lazard
8 Mike White
7 Miami Dolphins
6 Breece Hall
5 Jeff Wilson Jr.
4 Braxton Berrios
2 Durham Smythe
1 Michael Carter
1 Israel Abanikanda
 
I need the Jet's D to hold Miami to a bunch of FGs today. Fairbairn is out, and I don't want to wait til Monday night to see if Santos can give me a shot of advancing.

I need Sanders to rescue me!
 
Love - 35.30
LaPorta - 18.20
Wash FB Team - 0.

Me - 53.5
Cutline - 48.80

Only Jason Sanders going today, so I may wind up under the line going into Sunday.

But I have 18 more bullets to fire going into the weekend games. Njoku probably won't beat a LaPorta, and all three quarterbacks played yesterday. So I have those scores locked.
 
I have Love and Hill locked in, and Ferguson, Carlson and the Lions as duds who hopefully won't count.

FBG projections now have the cutline at 144.2 and me at 146.3, just 40 places ahead of the line. It's gonna be another nailbiter of a week.

The cutline should be around 64.7 after today's game, by the way.
 
Thru 11 weeks of the contest, here's how the 9 most common D's from the start are doing. I stopped at 9 because these are the only ones that started over 1K ownership.

1588 - BAL ($5) - Averaging 7.27 - 134 remain = 8.44% survival rate
1503 - PHI ($7) - Averaging 6.30 - 54 remain = 3.59% survival rate
1389 - WAS ($4) - Averaging 6.09 - 125 remain = 9.00% survival rate
1333 - DET ($3) - Averaging 5.30 - 148 remain = 11.10% survival rate
1276 - NO ($6) - Averaging 6.60 - 109 remain = 8.54% survival rate
1272 - LAC ($3) - Averaging 7.00 - 165 remain = 12.97% survival rate
1248 - NYJ ($6) - Averaging 7.00 - 69 remain = 5.53% survival rate
1129 - SF ($7) - Averaging 6.50 - 63 remain = 5.58 survival rate
1127 - JAC ($4) - Averaging 7.20 - 109 remain = 9.67% survival rate

Now let me put those same teams in order of survival rate...

1272 - LAC ($3) - Averaging 7.00 - 165 remain = 12.97% survival rate
1333 - DET ($3) - Averaging 5.30 - 148 remain = 11.10% survival rate
1127 - JAC ($4) - Averaging 7.20 - 109 remain = 9.67% survival rate
1389 - WAS ($4) - Averaging 6.09 - 125 remain = 9.00% survival rate
1276 - NO ($6) - Averaging 6.60 - 109 remain = 8.54% survival rate
1588 - BAL ($5) - Averaging 7.27 - 134 remain = 8.44% survival rate
1129 - SF ($7) - Averaging 6.50 - 63 remain = 5.58 survival rate
1248 - NYJ ($6) - Averaging 7.00 - 69 remain = 5.53% survival rate
1503 - PHI ($7) - Averaging 6.30 - 54 remain = 3.59% survival rate

Notice anything?
 
TheWinz said:
Thru 11 weeks of the contest, here's how the 9 most common D's from the start are doing. I stopped at 9 because these are the only ones that started over 1K ownership.

1588 - BAL ($5) - Averaging 7.27 - 134 remain = 8.44% survival rate
1503 - PHI ($7) - Averaging 6.30 - 54 remain = 3.59% survival rate
1389 - WAS ($4) - Averaging 6.09 - 125 remain = 9.00% survival rate
1333 - DET ($3) - Averaging 5.30 - 148 remain = 11.10% survival rate
1276 - NO ($6) - Averaging 6.60 - 109 remain = 8.54% survival rate
1272 - LAC ($3) - Averaging 7.00 - 165 remain = 12.97% survival rate
1248 - NYJ ($6) - Averaging 7.00 - 69 remain = 5.53% survival rate
1129 - SF ($7) - Averaging 6.50 - 63 remain = 5.58 survival rate
1127 - JAC ($4) - Averaging 7.20 - 109 remain = 9.67% survival rate

Now let me put those same teams in order of survival rate...

1272 - LAC ($3) - Averaging 7.00 - 165 remain = 12.97% survival rate
1333 - DET ($3) - Averaging 5.30 - 148 remain = 11.10% survival rate
1127 - JAC ($4) - Averaging 7.20 - 109 remain = 9.67% survival rate
1389 - WAS ($4) - Averaging 6.09 - 125 remain = 9.00% survival rate
1276 - NO ($6) - Averaging 6.60 - 109 remain = 8.54% survival rate
1588 - BAL ($5) - Averaging 7.27 - 134 remain = 8.44% survival rate
1129 - SF ($7) - Averaging 6.50 - 63 remain = 5.58 survival rate
1248 - NYJ ($6) - Averaging 7.00 - 69 remain = 5.53% survival rate
1503 - PHI ($7) - Averaging 6.30 - 54 remain = 3.59% survival rate

Notice anything?
Click to expand...
Yep, team D’s without vowels in their abbreviation generally have lower survival rates! Making a note for next year…
 
Cut line sitting at 64.7 after only 4 games.

QB - 21.30 (Sam Howell)
RB1 - 0.00
RB2 - 0.00
WR1 - 25.40 (Tyreek Hill)
WR2 - 10.20 (Jahan Dotson)
TE - 5.00 (Jake Ferguson)
FL1 - 6.00 (Tyler Lockett)
FL2 - 0.00
PK - 6.30 (Anders Carlson)
TD - 0.00 (Detroit Lions)

Players left
QB - Justin Herbert
RB - Joe Mixon, Javonte Williams, James Cook, Alvin Kamara, Ezekiel Elliott
WR - Zay Flowers, Van Jefferson, Parris Campbell
TE - Noah Gray
PK - Dustin Hopkins, Cairo Santos
TD - Houston Texans, Los Angeles Chargers

DEAD - TE's Darren Waller & Luke Musgrave
 
QB 35.30 - Love
TE 18.20 - LaPorta
PK 13.20 - Sanders

2 pts over the line

Players left

RB - Mixon, Conner, Kamara, Warren, Gaineell, Moss
WR - Olive, Diontae, Flowers, MVS, Downs, Shakir, Puca
TE - Njoku
PK - McManus, Santos
TD - Broncos, Chargers

DEAD - Waller, WAS (0)
 
After 1pm per Quizzomatic:

113.30 + (Gainwell/K Herbert - 0.60/6.70/10.20/28.40) + (Nacua - 6.70/10.20/12.10) + (Kincaid - 6.70/10.20/10.50) + (Hopkins/Santos - 13.20) + (Rams/Chargers - 0.00)

:scared:

-QG
 
I think I'm at 121.3 with Ekeler-10.2 and all of Justin Herbert to go for SNF, so assuming Herbert just has a decent game I think I'll probably be ok?

My desperation backup plan if I don't sufficiently clear the line after SNF is Santos-6.3 on MNF.

I estimate the line is at 113 after the early Sunday afternoon games.
 
Last edited:
Looking like I'll need a miracle :(

125.90 + (KHALIL Herbert - 4.60) + (Santos - 13.20) + (Chargers - 4.00)

A kickoff return for a TD here would be nice
-QG
 
Last edited:
I have myself at 134.4+ either the Broncos or Chargers defense and Zay Flowers -7.7. In other words, gentlemen, this is my stop. Good luck to the rest of you who are continuing on.
 
dbc925 said:
I have myself at 134.4+ either the Broncos or Chargers defense and Zay Flowers -7.7. In other words, gentlemen, this is my stop. Good luck to the rest of you who are continuing on.
Click to expand...
We're getting off at the same stop, barring something special from Khalil Herbert - 9.9 or Dicker - 11.8. I'm at 134.8. Good luck to the survivors.
 
scottybo said:
Cut line 136.8.
Click to expand...
Yeah, 2.2 higher, partly due to OT stats from Hurts, and also I had missed the DTD for Atlanta, which is an 11% owned defense. Good news is that I'm in that 11% so starting SNF in a bit less of a hole than I thought I was.

That said, 5 points from Herbert and 3 from Ekeler is not the first half I was hoping for tonight... I have to hold onto hope that they'll show up in the second half.
 
Wow, by my calculations (which you should take with a grain of salt), the cutline moved all the way up to 148.25 tonight.

That Zay Flowers TD really did save my bacon: that 9.7 took me from 148.7 to 158.4. I still have Santos - 6.6 but that's hardly money in the bank.
 
Looking forward to not having to sweat on MNF. Sitting at 159.7 with Herbert and Santos remaining.

Not loving having Fairbarn hurt and Santos on bye week next week. My team hasn’t dodged the injury bug (Rodgers, Waller, Herbert, Fairbarn) and has its share of duds/busts but having 3 QBs, 4 TEs and 3 kickers and an overall large team has allowed me to survive.

Mostert - just need a couple more weeks out of you! You’ve been a scorer almost every week. Not bad for a guy I was hoping could just get me past the Kamara 3 week suspension.

Good luck to those sweating tomorrow.
 
jdkapow said:
Wow, by my calculations (which you should take with a grain of salt), the cutline moved all the way up to 148.25 tonight.

That Zay Flowers TD really did save my bacon: that 9.7 took me from 148.7 to 158.4. I still have Santos - 6.6 but that's hardly money in the bank.
Click to expand...
Dang - cut moved a lot more than expected. Flowers is highly owned at around 25%. Bye week next for him should impact a high amount of teams.

Do you have ownership numbers for tomorrow or is that someone else that posts them?

I think Herbert is highly owned. Minnesota shouldn’t be able to move the line much with the Cousins and Jefferson injuries.
 
Someone else usually posts them, but I have them.

Khalil Herbert 163
Ty Chandler 129
Cairo Santos 92
DJ Moore 78
Jordan Addison 69
Chicago Bears 56
Alexander Mattison 54
T.J. Hockenson 49
Roschon Johnson 46
Justin Fields 37
Greg Joseph 34
Cole Kmet 32
Kirk Cousins 30
Minnesota Vikings 28
Justin Jefferson 15
K.J. Osborn 12
Cam Akers 11
D'Onta Foreman 6
Darnell Mooney 6
DeWayne McBride 2
 
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