Dizzy
Footballguy
Ekeler might be toast. It's been a long time since we've been forced to watch the one-armed pull-up clips.
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RB Austin Ekeler, WAS (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ketamine Dreams
- Start date
Ekeler might be toast. It's been a long time since we've been forced to watch the one-armed pull-up clips.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Denver's defensive rush stats are massively skewed by the first five games of the season.
From week 6 on (seven games) the Broncos rush defense is right at league average of 112.5 ypg and only four rush TD's total.
Wrigley
Footballguy
That MIA games comes to mind
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Yep. 350 in the MIA game and a 3-game stretch of 252 yards/game Week 3-5 before the turnaround began.
Broncos are by no means a top tier rush defense but nor are they a "must start" matchup at this point in the season.
Dickies
Footballguy
Demoted to flex? I flex my latest start time.
Ekeler has been demoted to my Bench spot
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Yeah, RB1 vs flex means nothing. Either his production (or lack thereof) counts for you or it doesn’t.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Kinda surprising he has never had a 1000 hard season. Even in 17 games last year. Didn't know that.
Apple Juice
Footballguy
The fact that everyone is convinced he's done is the main reason I think he scores a couple times this week. The Chargers will do what they've done all year to make up for their non-existent run blocking, have Herbert throw it 50 times. Just gotta hope Ekeler gets targets or rushes near the goal line, same as it ever was.
abrunn1133
Footballguy
In redrafts, it is not a bad move to drop him and hope hopes that someone picks him up and starts him. I typically look for these opportunities late in the season with big name players that are buried on my bench.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Like others said, my flex is always the latest games.
My quartet of Barkley, Ekeler, Henry and Walker doesn’t look so great right now. I think I’ll start Ekeler again over OBJ, Walker, Lockett, and Garrett Wilson. But it’s with zero confidence.
Pietaster2
Footballguy
Puzzles me how we’re all arriving to this point where multiple weeks of single digit futility have us thinking about benching Ekeler, but meanwhile “expert rankings” like the Fantasy Pros composite has him at RB4 this week.
Seems like people are reluctant to acknowledge the reality of Ekeler’s situation and think he’s going to magically have performances that resemble his prime in these final weeks of the season. I’m not as confident and will be benching him through the fantasy playoffs if the McKinnon/CEH experiment pans out.
Tau837
Footballguy
Here is the schedule he has faced, with opponent average ranking vs. RBs Ekeler's fantasy points in 1 PPR scoring:
Week 1 - 26.4 points (RB2) vs. MIA - great fantasy score against a good RB defense (#5)
Week 6 - 10.2 points (RB25) vs. DAL - poor fantasy score against a top RB defense (#3), in first game back from high ankle sprain
Week 7 - 5.6 points (RB38) at KC - bad fantasy score against a solid RB defense (#14), in second game back from high ankle sprain
Week 8 - 25.3 points (RB6) vs. CHI - great fantasy score against a poor RB defense (#23)
Week 9 - 21.0 points (RB4) at NYJ - great fantasy score against a poor RB defense (#26)
Week 10 - 21.5 points (RB4) vs. DET - great game against a good RB defense (#4)
Week 11 - 9.0 points (RB26) at GB - bad fantasy score against a poor RB defense (#22)
Week 12 - 11.4 points (RB24) vs. BAL - poor fantasy score against a good RB defense (#8)
Week 13 - 4.7 points (RB36) at NE - bad fantasy score against a solid RB defense (#15), in terrible weather
He is averaging 19.0 ppg (RB12) at home and 10.1 ppg (RB26) on the road, and his 3 worst games were all on the road. He is at home this week.
He is averaging 18.4 ppg (RB12) against teams ranked #22 or worse against RBs in 1 PPR scoring and 13.3 ppg (RB22) against teams ranked #15 or better. He faces Denver this week, which ranks #32 against RBs in 1 PPR scoring. However, that ranking is grossly skewed by the 70 point Miami game... their average in their other 12 games would slot them in at #20 vs. RBs.
These splits are small sample sizes, so might be more coincidence than predictive, but both of those splits appear to be positives for Ekeler this week. IMO the only real question for this week is whether or not HC Staley is going to give more snaps and opportunities to Kelley over Ekeler. Given Staley is fighting to save his job, I will be surprised if Ekeler doesn't get at least close to his normal snaps and workload.
I assume it is this kind of rationale that have him high in weekly rankings this week.
Pietaster2
Footballguy
Great analysis. Thanks. I guess I’ll keep Ekeler in my lineup for at least one more week.
Tau837
Footballguy
I should have noted, I don't think Ekeler is playing well this season in real life. But we know real life and fantasy scoring are different. I have Ekeler on 1 of my 4 fantasy teams, and I'm starting him.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
I'm sure the HAS is playing a part, but I think KA has been a bigger problem that I'm surprised hasn't been mentioned yet, scooping up all those short yardage targets that went to Ekeler last year when KA was banged up.
His rushing is less efficient, but his rushing yardage is roughly the same as it has been the last few years (50ypg this year vs 52ypg the two years prior). So he's getting us roughly the same fantasy points as usual there.
What he's lacking in are TDs and receptions. But not for a lack of efficiency. He's actually been significantly more efficient as a receiver (9.5 YPR this year vs 6.7 YPR last year). But that's actually been part of the problem. Herbert has locked on to KA for the meaningless dumpoffs that used to be Ekeler's bread and butter.
He's missing out on his least efficient NFL touches. The ones that didn't actually help the Chargers much, but the ones that REALLY helped fantasy owners. A game that was 4-37 as a receiving line this year might have been 11-55 last year. 7 extra catches for 18 extra yards is pretty miserable from an NFL perspective, but pretty darn awesome from a fantasy football perspective.
Some of his receiving stat lines from last year were actually pretty dumb. 10 catches for 47 yards. 7 catches for 24 yards. Ugly. The Chargers tend to totally fold at various parts of every season and just have awful games. But last year we were bailed out from a fantasy perspective with Ekeler getting a stupid amount of useless 2 yard dumpoffs that counted for 1.2fpts each and really added up quickly.
His rushing is less efficient, but his rushing yardage is roughly the same as it has been the last few years (50ypg this year vs 52ypg the two years prior). So he's getting us roughly the same fantasy points as usual there.
What he's lacking in are TDs and receptions. But not for a lack of efficiency. He's actually been significantly more efficient as a receiver (9.5 YPR this year vs 6.7 YPR last year). But that's actually been part of the problem. Herbert has locked on to KA for the meaningless dumpoffs that used to be Ekeler's bread and butter.
He's missing out on his least efficient NFL touches. The ones that didn't actually help the Chargers much, but the ones that REALLY helped fantasy owners. A game that was 4-37 as a receiving line this year might have been 11-55 last year. 7 extra catches for 18 extra yards is pretty miserable from an NFL perspective, but pretty darn awesome from a fantasy football perspective.
Some of his receiving stat lines from last year were actually pretty dumb. 10 catches for 47 yards. 7 catches for 24 yards. Ugly. The Chargers tend to totally fold at various parts of every season and just have awful games. But last year we were bailed out from a fantasy perspective with Ekeler getting a stupid amount of useless 2 yard dumpoffs that counted for 1.2fpts each and really added up quickly.
Dickies
Footballguy
I think a lot depends on who else you have. I have him in 1 out of my 3 leagues and I have him on the bench in favor of Nico Collins. If I had him in my other 2 teams he would be in my lineup due to injuries
Exactly
I have him in a dynasty league and can sit him because I have better options, but if I had him in my 14 team redraft, he would be in the lineup. Good matchup. Denver has gotten better against the run since early in the season, but they're still not good.
He has lookd pretty bad though. And though I don't put a ton of stock in pff rankings, having the worst rated run blocking OL isn't a positive either.
Tau837
Footballguy
Entering the season, I expected Ekeler's targets to come down this season, maybe by quite a bit. The new OC Kellen Moore didn't target RBs nearly as often in his Dallas offenses as previous OC Lombardi, who spent most of his career with Brees and Sean Payton. It seems this has played out.
Ekeler is performing at career low levels in most meaningful metrics. As a simple example, in 6 previous seasons, his lowest PFF grade was 74.6. This season it is 57.2. He has had a number of key drops, he is breaking fewer tackles, not making contested catches, etc. These things don't motivate the team to get him more looks in the passing game.
I think a lot of things have gone into it. Most important is probably the high ankle sprain. Next is the change to OC Moore and an offense that features him less. The OL has been bad (#32 run blocking in the league this season per PFF), which has also hurt. I think his contentious offseason with the Chargers might have also played a small role... he has been critical of the coaching staff at times this season.
Anyway, he does have a fairly appealing schedule the rest of the season, and every week is a week further removed from the injury. Maybe he has a rally in him in his last chance to boost his offseason free agent market.
I've had Chuba and Darrell Henderson and ....if someone drafted Ekeler they have been getting by. I've had both CEH and McKinnon and am back to CEH. (I didn't even try for McKinnon because I think he's looked bad this year and lost it)
So my choices every week are not glamorous. I am getting by.
Ekeler versus this D or that guy versus that D?
Previous seasons, when the Chargers WRs got hurt (ridiculously predictable org problem for sure) Ekeler would have a lot of catches. I wouldn't care that he had fifty yards rushing because it's ppr and he got plenty otherwise. That's not really happening. Everyone claims the backup WRs are great subs and Herbert is great and psssh that hasn't been true at all. I have wrongly figured they go back to getting Ekeler some more passes.
Still....it's Ekeler or this shmoo, Ekeler or that shmoo
(HULK)
(Smash)
Kelly has not done any better with the chances he's gotten. If Eckler is a washed hasbeen, then Kelly is a neverbeenneverwill IMO.
Spiller... I dunno. He might be something but still too soon to know either way.
I'm pretty confident Eckler gets his and has a good to great game today regardless.
Spiller... I dunno. He might be something but still too soon to know either way.
I'm pretty confident Eckler gets his and has a good to great game today regardless.
FarFromHome
Footballguy
Ride the hot hand? So Chargers isn't it. Smh
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Probably accurate.
jm192
Footballguy
We saw Kelly for an extended period. He's booty cheeks.
I LOVED Spiller coming out of college. I'm obviously a scouting expert. He's been pretty rough on his limited touches.
28 is old for a running back. I worry we're really seeing the fall with Ekeler. But I don't think any of the their options are going to seize control. if they start throwing him the ball, he can be "decent." But they've really gone away from that compared to past years. With
I LOVED Spiller coming out of college. I'm obviously a scouting expert. He's been pretty rough on his limited touches.
28 is old for a running back. I worry we're really seeing the fall with Ekeler. But I don't think any of the their options are going to seize control. if they start throwing him the ball, he can be "decent." But they've really gone away from that compared to past years. With
I'd put the over/under on 16 touches for Ekeler today.
I very much doubt Kelley or Spiller see any more than 35% of the work combined. Ekeler>>>>Kelley>Spiller. Ekeler has been rough of late, but the other guys are legit bad players.
I'll make a bold call and say Ekeler is the "hot hand" and has a top-10 week with a TD.
I very much doubt Kelley or Spiller see any more than 35% of the work combined. Ekeler>>>>Kelley>Spiller. Ekeler has been rough of late, but the other guys are legit bad players.
I'll make a bold call and say Ekeler is the "hot hand" and has a top-10 week with a TD.
Tau837
Footballguy
This isn't true from a rushing standpoint. Kelley is averaging 4.0 ypc behind the same blocking as Ekeler (3.5). Kelly has 20 rushing 1st downs on 94 attempts (21.3%), compared to 22 on 126 attempts for Ekeler (17.5%).
Ekeler is better as a pass blocker (though he isn't good) and better as a receiver (though he is having his career worst season receiving).
Kiddnets
Footballguy
They definitelty worked in the other 2 but its clear that Ekeler is the best by far. He looked better - possibly still shaking off the ankle injury. They finally threw him some check downs for once and even though Herbert was out he still was involved and productive. Hoping he gets hot down the stretch!
3 hour lunch
Footballguy
Expectations for tomorrow? I have to decide between him and Montgomery (standard). Never like the Thursday games but I’d imagine Ekeler will get decent opportunities……
togo
Footballguy
Yes where are we at with him?!
Last week "going with the hot hand." Shared carries but did fairly well, Even with the back up Q in.
Now no Herbert, and how does that affect the whole equation??
I have to Pick 3:
Austin Ekeler vs LV
Breece Hall vs Miami
Zach Moss vs Pitt
Rachaad White vs GB
Last week "going with the hot hand." Shared carries but did fairly well, Even with the back up Q in.
Now no Herbert, and how does that affect the whole equation??
I have to Pick 3:
Austin Ekeler vs LV
Breece Hall vs Miami
Zach Moss vs Pitt
Rachaad White vs GB
Timmay
Footballguy
I'd sit Moss in this situation. You would have to think Ekeler will be involved a lot with a backup QB especially in the short passes.
Hall has been seeing a lot of targets the last 3 games. 8+ in fact. Jets will have to keep up with Dolphins.
White has been an under the radar stud this year. All about volume.
Moss hasn't impressed the second go around when JT went down and Steelers are tough defense.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
Stuck with this turd this week. How I made the playoffs with him as my number 1 pick remains a mystery to me.
Yeah..... Zeke being a force on Thursday Night Football lured me into the idea that Ekeler could do the same and blinded me to the idea that this team is dunzo and their coach is gone after this season. Maybe Ekeler can salvage a TD out of this; but this team looks bad.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
I’ve seen enough 
Ever worse than one could’ve hoped, adios 2023 season.
Ever worse than one could’ve hoped, adios 2023 season.
PIK95
Footballguy
In addition to having Ekeler in my 16 teamer, I picked up AOC for Herbert.....and started Flacco this week. Fml.I’ve seen enough
Ever worse than one could’ve hoped, adios 2023 season.
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
At least I’m done with Ekeler on the bright side. Although I’m sure he’ll save his only good remaining game in his career when someone throws a dart and flexes this bum against me next season.In addition to having Ekeler in my 16 teamer, I picked up AOC for Herbert.....and started Flacco this week. Fml.I’ve seen enough
Ever worse than one could’ve hoped, adios 2023 season.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
Ugh. If I survive my playoff game he's going to my bench.
Pip's Invitation
Footballguy
He's clearly not in the Chargers' plans for next year if he's playing in the 4th quarter of this game.
TampaMike19
Footballguy
RIP to 95% started in sleeper leagues. Playoffs ender
FairWarning
Footballguy
Buried me on the receptions by .5. Well the Chargers have quit on the season, time to move on.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Thankfully i got the bye this week.
But he’ll be riding the bench next week for Walker, Diontae, or Garrett Wilson.
zamboni
Footballguy
I don’t think he is either way, but obviously it will be a different regime that makes that determination.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Who would have thought the chargers could be this bad?
At least the new regime has a franchise QB in place.
zamboni
Footballguy
Watch them sign a Jacobs or Barkley.
Down Under
Footballguy
IF I survive this week (I'm favored), I'll be starting Foreman or Spears next week.
