Klimtology
Footballguy
I was in T Bills for awhile and then the money market.
Time to get back in?
Bad Timing?
Time to get back in?
Bad Timing?
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Stock Thread (11 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Klimtology
Footballguy
My Brother's investments went up $40,000 since October.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Don’t like the risk/reward in stocks right now. I’ve cut back to my minimum 50% equities. Just my risk tolerance, which is probably lower than most.
Klimtology
Footballguy
I think I'm going 2/3 in.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Have you been completely out of stocks and missed the entire run?
Klimtology
Footballguy
Klimtology
Footballguy
I'm hoping the run continues.
Anyone think it will?
Anyone think it will?
Not sure how much money you're talking about or what your risk tolerance is. If you have some money to invest, it makes good sense to put some of it to work especially if you're looking at long-term holds like a broad market ETF. With valuations where they are and with the specter of a landing (hard or soft) happening soon, you may want to dollar-cost-average your way into this investment. For instance, maybe start with 25% of what you intend to invest and buy that now. Then leg in another 25% in a few months, etc. I believe that long-run analysis will tell you that that is not the way to maximize your return (statistics says you should just go ahead and invest it all at once, I think). But with all that's happening, I'd be more conservative at this point. You may want to talk to a professional instead of folks who play one on a public message board (todem, notwithstanding).
That doesn't mean a lot. If he is a millionaire, that could be just a few percent. But, yes, your point is taken that the market has been on a run lately.
McBokonon
Footballguy
I never leave the market.
In the next 2 months or 15 years?
In the next 2 months or 15 years?
How long were you out? Honestly, this feels like a bad time to jump back in unless you are holding for 20 years. If you jumped out at the peak in November 2021, no biggie, you just missed a chance to sell high and buy low. If you jumped out after the big drop of 2022 (bonds had a tough time too), I’d have a hard time jumping back in because it does feel like we may get a rug pull soon. Again, it really depends on long or short timelines. Also, I have been doing some reallocations but more so in areas where I won’t need the money for 10+ years.
Yep. October was a great time to buy. I won’t say how much (I’m certainly not wealthy, lol) but my overall portfolio is up way more than that since October. Amazon is my largest holding and it’s up 45% since October. I’d think most people are up 25-40% since October.
I’m kind of with you on that. I bought a few stocks on Monday that have done well so far through earnings but I bought by selling some stuff I don’t like as much. I don’t see any near term bad news coming but I see more of a ceiling we may be hitting.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Yeah, but you enjoyed solid, risk free returns and slept well at night....not like you LOST money.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Yeah. I never get out completely, I think that’s a fools game, but in my 50s I do try and limit risk some. I dont have the time to come back from a sustained 30-40-50% drop in the market. When the market is correcting I’ll typically boost my exposure to 70% or so. When things are looking frothy and a bit clownish to me I’ll drop back to 50% or so. With safe money paying north of 5%, it’s an easier choice. Just me…….helps me sleep at night and resist the retail temptation to buy at the top and sell at the bottom.
GoBirds
Footballguy
I’d go smaller chunks at a time than 2/3.
GBTC has been a nice run. Glad I never dumped it because I’m actually up nicely now.
I'm in the same boat with a small percentage of my investments in those two. I'm holding because I want to keep a foot in that space but the thought of selling crossed my mind.
BigJohn
Footballguy
eekUWMC earnings tomorrow
identikit
Footballguy
Sold half of each today
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
As soon as FBTC became available and the GBTC converted (so the discount to NAV had disappeared), I sold GBTC with it's 1.5% expense ratio and bought FBTC with it's 0.25% expense ratio. Of course I have it in a Roth, so no tax considerations. If you've got those huge gains in a taxable account you're kind of stuck paying those extra 125 bps.
Todem
Footballguy
Get out
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Your RTX buy recommendation was only back in July. Thesis changed, I take it? Or just that it didn't do what you thought it might and we're now back up a bit on where it was then so time to exit? Just love learning more about your thought process. TIA
identikit
Footballguy
Yo Mama
Footballguy
Slaps 0.0003266309 of a bitcoin on the table.
That got my attention. I'm all ears. I will say that I'm more interested in ETHE long term than Bitcoin but definitely could be swayed.
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
I made two buys of PANW, one AHs after earnings and another the next day after it went down even more, ending up with a double position for me. As of now up about 11% in 4 days, keep filling that gap!!! If we can get back to about $345 (another 10%) I plan to sell enough to drop back to a single position and hold from there.
From a newsletter this morning......
Todem
Footballguy
Yeah I foresee serious issues with military spending.....or the news of that budget cut coming with the complete dysfunction of our congress......and the multiple on the stock is far too high to justify holding it anymore and I rather put those proceeds to work into LMT which is first cheap in comparison and far less volatile and has a better yield as well. Even thought forward yield looks better than the current yield......I changed course on my overall view on RTX. Hence why I sold out with a small profit.
GOOGL is now 20 times forward.....stupid.
LMT is now 16.5 times forward.
APPL is looking attractive again too. Every time the pundits start talking of.....the stock is tired, they don’t innovate...blah blah blah.....it rips another 30-40% over the next year.
We are gonna get a pull back at some point here between now and June......it reeks of it. Overall though we will have another positive year like we talked about before the end of last year. Bullish.
Todem
Footballguy
Rug pull with happen in due time. And the fact that this asset class (if you want to call it that) is moving lockstep with the equity market......what hedge?
If you make money in this take your profits....watch the rug get pulled...buy back in....rinse and repeat. Because it will no doubt happen again.
Round trip in Bitcoin from 2021 to now.....all those people who jumped in at 60K just broke even.......ask me if they sell and have learned?
Nope.
WTF happened today? Was up nice AH like 4-5% after earnings but the market pressure this morning and it was barely up and now up 13%. It’s firmly in my top 10.It’s become a very nice and large holding for me. Glad I doubled down when it went down for a bit in the $150ish range a while back.AXON just keeps going. It’s insanely expensive though - been saying that for a couple years now. Rolled my covered calls on it today.This thing (AXON) has been a shining beacon. What a freaking horse. Probably due for a pullback but talk about a stock that’s just ignoring everything.I've been wanting to add to my AXON position and just did today as it hangs around 7 month lows.
Beat and Raise for $AXON -
$AXON again.
It’s grown to number 2 for me behind only $COST and I haven’t actually added to it since May 2022.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I bought Axon a while ago and never increased it. 
McBokonon
Footballguy
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
I honestly think he does the opposite of what he says
Runkle
Footballguy
When people who were sitting out feel safe to dip their toes back in, I take that as a warning sign lol
Nick Vermeil
Footballguy
Totally agree these
Desert_Power
Footballguy
Always been intrigued by this company but scared to touch it's valuations. I have plenty of other rich tech companies to lose money on.
Good company, beat top and bottom but gave cautious guidance (helps for future beats). Problem has always been valuation. I thought about buying some back when it hit 110ish in 2022. Should have but still the valuation is tough because they are growing at 30%/20%, not 100%. P/S of 25 is very high at the current growth rate. That’s why it’s getting hammered. It’s still not cheap with the drop.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Honestly yeah. Fear greed index is pushing 80, we‘re at the top of a channel that goes back to the 1920s. I’m not saying it can’t go higher but I’d much rather buy when nobody else wants to.
⚡DEADHEAD⚡
Footballguy
Thoughts on OKTA?
The shares I have look good tonight but honestly it’s basically been flat since I’ve owned it. It’s fairly inexpensive for its growth and revenue, compared to other cyber security stocks.
steelerfan1
Footballguy
SE! just kidding….I miss those days 
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Hope you bought some yesterday!
I wouldn't beat yourself up over missing a massive rally, what's done is done.
No one can answer for sure what to do or when to do it, and there are a lot of variables that come into play.
I am just about always invested, but the past 18 months or so, I've had a much higher cash position than normal at between 15-20% (usually I am at 5% cash). A lot of this had to do with market uncertainty, but even moreso because I was pretty comfortable collecting 5 - 5.5% interest risk free.
I always advocate not trying to time the market, be it tops or bottoms, and never jump in all the way at once. When starting positions, I usually go with a 1/4 to 1/2 position and add to it over time. As far as indexes go, I'm always a bi-monthly contributor using an automatic investment plan.
As far as what I expect this year, well, I'm more bearish than most and I think we're too high, but even still, I'm not selling out of positions, rather I'm moving money from one investment to another. I think value and dividend stocks are quite undervalued now, so I'm building those positions up. As interest rates fall (if they ever do!) I think they'll be great places to be at. I like companies that make money hand over fist and don't need to borrow or make massive capital expenditures which can lead to borrowing. Health care for instance seems like a good place to be.
