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NCAA Basketball Thread - 2022-3 Season (3 Viewers)

Is this the general college hoops thread for this year? Was trying to find one, and best I could find through search.
I said it last year and I'll say it again, for years this message board provided some of the best tournament advice out there.
People would break down their hometown team, etc. It was awesome!

Seems like that talk has died down to almost non-existent.
I would like to see some of that too. I’m not sure if comments are being reserved while the quarters drafts are ongoing and posters don’t want to tip their picks.

Not really a “hometown” team, but my wife went to the University of New Mexico, and her parents were out at the Mountain West Conference tournament this year (they go out every year). So, I watch a lot of UNM. Their seeding as an 11 seed was (in my biased view) pretty ridiculous. Rolled through the MWC tournament, including a double digit lead at one point in the final against SDSU, which got a 5 seed. They finished higher in the MWC standings than Colorado State, beat them in the tournament by 13 points, yet still got seeded below them (UNM also beat Boise State in the tournament by double digits, and got seeded below them too).

Lots of names that you’d recognize. Coached by Richard Pitino, who has got them going at the right time. Guards are fun to watch. Jaelen House (son of Eddie House) and Jamal Mashburn Jr (son of… well, you guessed it).
 
I'll throw some JMU stuff out if @tommyGunZ isn't hanging around these parts anymore.

Meantime, my gotta-watch team is Samford. They play an insane brand of hoops - press for 40 minutes, no matter the score. They run and run and run. I think they have 13 guys who average over 10 minutes per game. They sub out like hockey teams do. All of their guys run sub-6 minute miles. Their coach got hired from a local high school in Birmingham and had never coached a college game before.

They had two games in a row where they scored over 118 points in each. They scored 134 in another game :lol: They DO NOT CARE what the other team is doing. They remind me of the Loyola-Marymount teams with Gathers, Kimble, et al..... Samford isn't as good as those LM teams, but they can mess up a bracket real quick.
 
I'll take Houston. I would say most of the widely available information is on the money and they are the co-shakiest #1 seed with UNC. When the shots are falling, they are nearly unstoppable with the analytics to match. When Shead is not hitting or they fall behind, all bets are off. Sampson doesn't trust the bench much at all and injuries along the way have really hollowed this group out. Lot of top heavy experience in the tourney, but if J'wan Roberts can't go or is limited like in the Big12 championship loss, they'll be leaning on Damian Dunn (G) and playing even smaller ball a good bit. In their reg. season home Senior Day game vs. Kansas, they were up by 20 at half on way to a 30pt win, Francis got dinged and still only had 9 guys play with 5 playing over 20 minutes. Last year's teams starters were better but running into an equally athletic and better shooting Miami team ended that team in a game where the 5 UH starters played almost the whole game and expect that'll likely be the model for this year as well.

Looking at the bracket, it's definitely conceivable that the Nebraska/A&M winner could knock them out in the 2nd round. They would probably rather see Texas A&M than Nebraska. They wouldn't match up well vs. Duke (or James Madison!) but would with Wisconsin in the next round and although the South regional is in Dallas, the bottom half of the bracket with Marquette, Kentucky, Florida seems difficult. I always like to fade SEC and Big 12 teams and it's really hard for me to project UH advancing out of their quarter of the bracket.
 
Gonzaga is the top kenpom efficiency team over the last 10 games or so despite the loss in their conference tournament. Classic definition of a team that got better and peaked at the end of the season. That said, McNeese State poses certain matchup problems, is a big unknown because of bad SOS and is a team that shoots the three well.

If they get by McNeese, they could have a surprising run. Gonzaga is better than Kansas, even more so if they are still injury ridden. They also played Purdue pretty tough early in the year, and they are a much better team now than they were then.
 
Is this the general college hoops thread for this year? Was trying to find one, and best I could find through search.
I said it last year and I'll say it again, for years this message board provided some of the best tournament advice out there.
People would break down their hometown team, etc. It was awesome!

Seems like that talk has died down to almost non-existent.
DAVIDSON WILDCATS

Chose not to participate in the postseason this year in solidarity with the women's team, which had to suspend its season due to too many injuries. Also because they were terrible and lost 1 million close games.

HTH
 
Purdue Boilermakers

It pains me to write this after what has happened the last few years....but this team keeps sucking me with it's regular season play and Big Ten dominance the past two years. The are a few things to note about this years team:
  • Zach Edey is still Zach Edey. He's going to be hard to stop and he's going to get his FTs
  • The freshman guards are now sophomore guards
  • Braden Smith has more than 350 points, 200 assists, 150 rebounds and 40 steals this season, joining Magic Johnson as the only players in Big Ten history to reach all of those milestones in one year.
  • Lance Jones is a difference maker. He gives them more athleticism and Sr. leadership. I think he's going to play a big part in just how far this team goes. Many experts say he was the most influential portal transfer from last year.
The resume - No one really quite has the resume that Purdue has over the entire season. The one point OT loss to Wisconsin seems to be getting more attention than the other two #1 seeds who also lost in their tourney...but whatever. The have 14 quad 1 victories with an extremely impressive non conference record including victories over:
  • Gonzaga
  • Tennessee
  • Marquette
  • Alabama
  • Arizona
Let's just get to Friday and put the past behind us. Last year Purdue was close to last in the country in 3 point percentage. This year they are third nationally. Assuming they limit the turnovers and shoot a modest 35% from 3 they should move to the sweet 16 without any issues. Who knows where it goes from there.
 
I guess I could do my own since I brought it up.

MSU: Not much to say. They are not very good. Seeded too high. I predict a 1st round exit. Many believe it's time for Tom to step aside.

I think the Big East got robbed. Three teams? UConn and Marquette are two of the best teams in the country.

My pick? UConn.
 
I guess I could do my own since I brought it up.

MSU: Not much to say. They are not very good. Seeded too high. I predict a 1st round exit. Many believe it's time for Tom to step aside.

I think the Big East got robbed. Three teams? UConn and Marquette are two of the best teams in the country.

My pick? UConn.
I think MSU is playing a bit different now. They gave Purdue all they wanted in back to back games to end the season. And they took care of Minnesota who had been playing well and had "home court" for the Big Ten tourney.

This team will be one of the biggest mysteries in the history of the BT. So much talent and expectations only to lose 14 games. Their guard play is going to determine how far they get.
 
Many years ago, I worked for Kyle Smith's dad and got go pal around with Kyle at some local basketball tournaments when schools from other states would come play local schools from Oregon. I loved doing that, it was a blast and Kyle is a great, great guy. Back then, he was an assistant coach with Air Force then got hired on at St. Mary's when Randy Bennett got the job. Not gonna lie, it was a pretty cool experience getting to meet Randy and some of the other assistant coaches and players. They were HORRIBLE his first season, but they turned it around quickly and Kyle was his top lieutenant.

Funny how Randy has remained in place at St. Mary's all this time. I was certain a bigger school would come calling, but maybe he loves it there? I think at some point St. Mary's will make a deeper run. In 2010 they made the Sweet 16 but that's as far as he's taken 'em. Always rooting for the Gaels.

But I think the more interesting trajectory is that of Kyle Smith. Put in the work, the long hours, the grind, all basketball all the time. He got his first HC job at Columbia, parlayed that into the job at San Francisco and now has Washington State in the big dance as a 7 seed in his 5th year there. And I couldn't name one player on his team, but I know this - count out Kyle Smith at your own risk! GO COUGS!
 
I guess I could do my own since I brought it up.

MSU: Not much to say. They are not very good. Seeded too high. I predict a 1st round exit. Many believe it's time for Tom to step aside.

I think the Big East got robbed. Three teams? UConn and Marquette are two of the best teams in the country.

My pick? UConn.
I think MSU is playing a bit different now. They gave Purdue all they wanted in back to back games to end the season. And they took care of Minnesota who had been playing well and had "home court" for the Big Ten tourney.

This team will be one of the biggest mysteries in the history of the BT. So much talent and expectations only to lose 14 games. Their guard play is going to determine how far they get.
Michigan State has to get scoring from their bigs, even a little, to have any chance of advancing. In addition, if they can get into a long-term up tempo game they will do better than setting an offense because they are very undisciplined and fire bad shots at will, and their bigs aren’t good enough to be a presence inside, save for Booker at times. I think they handle MSU Jr. From there it’s a huge question mark.
 
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I guess I could do my own since I brought it up.

MSU: Not much to say. They are not very good. Seeded too high. I predict a 1st round exit. Many believe it's time for Tom to step aside.

I think the Big East got robbed. Three teams? UConn and Marquette are two of the best teams in the country.

My pick? UConn.
I think MSU is playing a bit different now. They gave Purdue all they wanted in back to back games to end the season. And they took care of Minnesota who had been playing well and had "home court" for the Big Ten tourney.

This team will be one of the biggest mysteries in the history of the BT. So much talent and expectations only to lose 14 games. Their guard play is going to determine how far they get.
Michigan State has to get scoring from their bigs, even a little, to have any chance of advancing. In addition, if they can get into a long-term up tempo game they will do better than setting an offense because they are very undisciplined and fire bad shots at will, and their bigs aren’t good enough to be a presence inside, save for Booker at times. I think they handle MSU Jr. From there it’s a huge question mark.
This seems to be another year for Michigan State where they have a questionable resume, great analytics numbers, and a bunch of people moaning about them making the tournament. Seems like this has happened before and Izzo always seems to overachieve with these kind of teams. Any reason to think this year they wouldn’t?

I’ve always sworn I would stop betting against Izzo in the tournament, but this year they are a 9 and get a 1 seed matchup early.
 
Stats that matter:

The last three years in a row, a 1 or 2 has been upset by a team whose name is phallic

2021: ORAL Robert’s beat Ohio State
2022: St. PETERs beat Kentucky
2023: Fairleigh DICKenson beat Purdue

This year, Houston has a first round matchup with LONGWOOD.
The HIMS special play
 
Nebraska AD Trev Alberts left last week to take the AD job at Texas A&M. On Sunday morning my nephew sent me a meme having something to do about Nebraska being matched up with A&M in the first round, controlling the tip and launching it into the stands at Alberts' head. (I didn't say it was a funny meme).

Then the committee went and did it.

Later last night the women's selection committee matched the Nebraska women up with.... Texas A&M. :rolleyes:
 
I see a lot of folks (on other sites) mentioning Kentucky as a sleeper. Then I looked into them - they have the 108th best defense according to kenpom and 123 on Torvik. Holy moly. That’s really bad. Hard to see them making a long run with that.

If there are KY fans who can enlighten on that, much appreciated.
 
Kansas: if what @Uruk-Hai says is true, Kansas has no chance. KU has no quality depth at all. And two of their best scorers are gimpy and may or may not play. There is no way they can run with a team that runs like that.
 
Kansas: if what @Uruk-Hai says is true, Kansas has no chance. KU has no quality depth at all. And two of their best scorers are gimpy and may or may not play. There is no way they can run with a team that runs like that.
I think Kansas is in trouble as far as making a long run. As you say, they're banged up and they haven't been especially consistent even when they've been healthy.

However, Samford is boom or bust and Kansas has enough talent to beat them even with all of their dings. They have a HOF coach and a legit big man. This just feels like an awful matchup for them.

I'm almost always wrong, though, so UK will probably win the damned title again :lol:
 
Stats that matter:

The last three years in a row, a 1 or 2 has been upset by a team whose name is phallic

2021: ORAL Robert’s beat Ohio State
2022: St. PETERs beat Kentucky
2023: Fairleigh DICKenson beat Purdue

This year, Houston has a first round matchup with LONGWOOD.

Another potential first round upset this year is Morehead St. over Illinois
I'm not seeing it. Illinois will just outscore them.
 
I see a lot of folks (on other sites) mentioning Kentucky as a sleeper. Then I looked into them - they have the 108th best defense according to kenpom and 123 on Torvik. Holy moly. That’s really bad. Hard to see them making a long run with that.

If there are KY fans who can enlighten on that, much appreciated.
I guess the theory is that they still have a lot of NBA-ready talent and could turn it on. Went on a bit of a run late in the year but had to put up a lot of points to do it.
 
Kansas: if what @Uruk-Hai says is true, Kansas has no chance. KU has no quality depth at all. And two of their best scorers are gimpy and may or may not play. There is no way they can run with a team that runs like that.
I think Kansas is in trouble as far as making a long run. As you say, they're banged up and they haven't been especially consistent even when they've been healthy.

However, Samford is boom or bust and Kansas has enough talent to beat them even with all of their dings. They have a HOF coach and a legit big man. This just feels like an awful matchup for them.

I'm almost always wrong, though, so UK will probably win the damned title again :lol:
i agree that Samford is not a good bet to upset Kansas, but I sort of like Mcneese state to knock off gonzaga and then beat Kansas.
 
Kansas: if what @Uruk-Hai says is true, Kansas has no chance. KU has no quality depth at all. And two of their best scorers are gimpy and may or may not play. There is no way they can run with a team that runs like that.
BREAKING: “Kevin (McCullar) will not play. He’s out. We’re shutting him down for the entire tournament” - Bill Self
 
I'll throw some JMU stuff out if @tommyGunZ isn't hanging around these parts anymore.

Meantime, my gotta-watch team is Samford. They play an insane brand of hoops - press for 40 minutes, no matter the score. They run and run and run. I think they have 13 guys who average over 10 minutes per game. They sub out like hockey teams do. All of their guys run sub-6 minute miles. Their coach got hired from a local high school in Birmingham and had never coached a college game before.

They had two games in a row where they scored over 118 points in each. They scored 134 in another game :lol: They DO NOT CARE what the other team is doing. They remind me of the Loyola-Marymount teams with Gathers, Kimble, et al..... Samford isn't as good as those LM teams, but they can mess up a bracket real quick.
They are fun, but to be fair, they scored the 118+ against some terrible teams and the 134 came against VMI who historically plays a run and gun and no D style themselves
 
I’m seeing Charleston, Oregon, and New Mexico as the best upset candidates according to the analytics.

My gut tells me Long Beach State knocks out Arizona. Stories like theirs always seem to persist in March. Combine this with Arizona’s inability to play well consistently.
 
I’m seeing Charleston, Oregon, and New Mexico as the best upset candidates according to the analytics.

My gut tells me Long Beach State knocks out Arizona. Stories like theirs always seem to persist in March. Combine this with Arizona’s inability to play well consistently.
I like Oregon and New Mexico. I do like Charleston, but why do you like them as an upset? Bama is quite high on kenpom .
 
I’m seeing Charleston, Oregon, and New Mexico as the best upset candidates according to the analytics.

My gut tells me Long Beach State knocks out Arizona. Stories like theirs always seem to persist in March. Combine this with Arizona’s inability to play well consistently.
I like Oregon and New Mexico. I do like Charleston, but why do you like them as an upset? Bama is quite high on kenpom .

- Alabama Defensive efficiency is 112. That's suspect for a top seed.
- Alabama plays much less efficient away from home.
- One of the lowest point spreads of the top seed/low seed matchups.
- They have been playing their worst basketball of late efficiency wise, by a ton.

Outside of Kansas who are dealing with injuries, they have the lowest kenpom win probability (83%) of the top 4 seeds.

Still more likely to not happen than happen, but they're on my list of potential upsets.
 
I’m seeing Charleston, Oregon, and New Mexico as the best upset candidates according to the analytics.

My gut tells me Long Beach State knocks out Arizona. Stories like theirs always seem to persist in March. Combine this with Arizona’s inability to play well consistently.
I like Oregon and New Mexico. I do like Charleston, but why do you like them as an upset? Bama is quite high on kenpom .

- Alabama Defensive efficiency is 112. That's suspect for a top seed.
- Alabama plays much less efficient away from home.
- One of the lowest point spreads of the top seed/low seed matchups.
- They have been playing their worst basketball of late efficiency wise, by a ton.

Outside of Kansas who are dealing with injuries, they have the lowest kenpom win probability (83%) of the top 4 seeds.

Still more likely to not happen than happen, but they're on my list of potential upsets.
Charleston can get hot from 3 too. Against a team adverse to playing D that can be trouble.
 
I wasn’t mad but sad Sooners didn’t make the tourney. I thought any team on the bubble could definitely ask why Virginia and not us?

Virginia lost by 35 to Va Tech and lost by 20 six times this year. They are awful.
 
All right, I spend way too much time perfecting my far from perfect system at picking the final 4 and champions. I use 15 categories, for each one I give a positive one if the team scores in the top 25% compared to the last 40 final 4 teams. 0 if they are in the middle 50%, and -1 in the bottom 25%. I also add up a bunch of these categories and give them an overall score. In the end, if the team has a score of 145 or higher, along with a -2 or better, I consider them final 4 worthy. Below is the list last year. in order
1 Houston
2 Ucla
3 Uconn
4 Gonzaga
5 Tennessee
6 Texas
7 Xavier
8 Utah St
9 S Diego St
10 Miami
11 Texas A and M
12 Duke
13 Florida Atlantic
14 Kansas st

Pretty interesting all four final 4 teams are in there. However, as I dug deeper. I added one more criteria in there based on defense and that eliminated Miami, Gonzaga, Xavier, and Utah St. So, out of 10 teams, I had 3 final four teams.

Finally, I add in some stricter criteria to be the champ and the only ones left were U conn.

So, this year using the same system. Here is what I have.
1 Uconn
2 Houston
3 Purdue
4 Arizona
5 N. Carolina
6 Tennessee
7 Iowa St
8 Duke

And I have 2 left for the champion.
Uconn
Arizona

Trash it if you want, but we will see lol
 

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