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NCAA Basketball Thread - 2022-3 Season (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter whoknew
- Start date
Don Quixote
Footballguy
Is this the general college hoops thread for this year? Was trying to find one, and best I could find through search.
I said it last year and I'll say it again, for years this message board provided some of the best tournament advice out there.
People would break down their hometown team, etc. It was awesome!
Seems like that talk has died down to almost non-existent.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
I would like to see some of that too. I’m not sure if comments are being reserved while the quarters drafts are ongoing and posters don’t want to tip their picks.
Not really a “hometown” team, but my wife went to the University of New Mexico, and her parents were out at the Mountain West Conference tournament this year (they go out every year). So, I watch a lot of UNM. Their seeding as an 11 seed was (in my biased view) pretty ridiculous. Rolled through the MWC tournament, including a double digit lead at one point in the final against SDSU, which got a 5 seed. They finished higher in the MWC standings than Colorado State, beat them in the tournament by 13 points, yet still got seeded below them (UNM also beat Boise State in the tournament by double digits, and got seeded below them too).
Lots of names that you’d recognize. Coached by Richard Pitino, who has got them going at the right time. Guards are fun to watch. Jaelen House (son of Eddie House) and Jamal Mashburn Jr (son of… well, you guessed it).
Capella
Footballguy
I used to do those threads. I don’t think we have quarter of the user traffic anymore. Probably not worth it.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I'll throw some JMU stuff out if @tommyGunZ isn't hanging around these parts anymore.
Meantime, my gotta-watch team is Samford. They play an insane brand of hoops - press for 40 minutes, no matter the score. They run and run and run. I think they have 13 guys who average over 10 minutes per game. They sub out like hockey teams do. All of their guys run sub-6 minute miles. Their coach got hired from a local high school in Birmingham and had never coached a college game before.
They had two games in a row where they scored over 118 points in each. They scored 134 in another game
They DO NOT CARE what the other team is doing. They remind me of the Loyola-Marymount teams with Gathers, Kimble, et al..... Samford isn't as good as those LM teams, but they can mess up a bracket real quick.
Meantime, my gotta-watch team is Samford. They play an insane brand of hoops - press for 40 minutes, no matter the score. They run and run and run. I think they have 13 guys who average over 10 minutes per game. They sub out like hockey teams do. All of their guys run sub-6 minute miles. Their coach got hired from a local high school in Birmingham and had never coached a college game before.
They had two games in a row where they scored over 118 points in each. They scored 134 in another game
They DO NOT CARE what the other team is doing. They remind me of the Loyola-Marymount teams with Gathers, Kimble, et al..... Samford isn't as good as those LM teams, but they can mess up a bracket real quick.I'll take Houston. I would say most of the widely available information is on the money and they are the co-shakiest #1 seed with UNC. When the shots are falling, they are nearly unstoppable with the analytics to match. When Shead is not hitting or they fall behind, all bets are off. Sampson doesn't trust the bench much at all and injuries along the way have really hollowed this group out. Lot of top heavy experience in the tourney, but if J'wan Roberts can't go or is limited like in the Big12 championship loss, they'll be leaning on Damian Dunn (G) and playing even smaller ball a good bit. In their reg. season home Senior Day game vs. Kansas, they were up by 20 at half on way to a 30pt win, Francis got dinged and still only had 9 guys play with 5 playing over 20 minutes. Last year's teams starters were better but running into an equally athletic and better shooting Miami team ended that team in a game where the 5 UH starters played almost the whole game and expect that'll likely be the model for this year as well.
Looking at the bracket, it's definitely conceivable that the Nebraska/A&M winner could knock them out in the 2nd round. They would probably rather see Texas A&M than Nebraska. They wouldn't match up well vs. Duke (or James Madison!) but would with Wisconsin in the next round and although the South regional is in Dallas, the bottom half of the bracket with Marquette, Kentucky, Florida seems difficult. I always like to fade SEC and Big 12 teams and it's really hard for me to project UH advancing out of their quarter of the bracket.
Looking at the bracket, it's definitely conceivable that the Nebraska/A&M winner could knock them out in the 2nd round. They would probably rather see Texas A&M than Nebraska. They wouldn't match up well vs. Duke (or James Madison!) but would with Wisconsin in the next round and although the South regional is in Dallas, the bottom half of the bracket with Marquette, Kentucky, Florida seems difficult. I always like to fade SEC and Big 12 teams and it's really hard for me to project UH advancing out of their quarter of the bracket.
Scoresman
Footballguy
Gonzaga is the top kenpom efficiency team over the last 10 games or so despite the loss in their conference tournament. Classic definition of a team that got better and peaked at the end of the season. That said, McNeese State poses certain matchup problems, is a big unknown because of bad SOS and is a team that shoots the three well.
If they get by McNeese, they could have a surprising run. Gonzaga is better than Kansas, even more so if they are still injury ridden. They also played Purdue pretty tough early in the year, and they are a much better team now than they were then.
If they get by McNeese, they could have a surprising run. Gonzaga is better than Kansas, even more so if they are still injury ridden. They also played Purdue pretty tough early in the year, and they are a much better team now than they were then.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
DAVIDSON WILDCATS
Chose not to participate in the postseason this year in solidarity with the women's team, which had to suspend its season due to too many injuries. Also because they were terrible and lost 1 million close games.
HTH
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
Purdue Boilermakers
It pains me to write this after what has happened the last few years....but this team keeps sucking me with it's regular season play and Big Ten dominance the past two years. The are a few things to note about this years team:
It pains me to write this after what has happened the last few years....but this team keeps sucking me with it's regular season play and Big Ten dominance the past two years. The are a few things to note about this years team:
- Zach Edey is still Zach Edey. He's going to be hard to stop and he's going to get his FTs
- The freshman guards are now sophomore guards
- Braden Smith has more than 350 points, 200 assists, 150 rebounds and 40 steals this season, joining Magic Johnson as the only players in Big Ten history to reach all of those milestones in one year.
- Lance Jones is a difference maker. He gives them more athleticism and Sr. leadership. I think he's going to play a big part in just how far this team goes. Many experts say he was the most influential portal transfer from last year.
- Gonzaga
- Tennessee
- Marquette
- Alabama
- Arizona
I guess I could do my own since I brought it up.
MSU: Not much to say. They are not very good. Seeded too high. I predict a 1st round exit. Many believe it's time for Tom to step aside.
I think the Big East got robbed. Three teams? UConn and Marquette are two of the best teams in the country.
My pick? UConn.
MSU: Not much to say. They are not very good. Seeded too high. I predict a 1st round exit. Many believe it's time for Tom to step aside.
I think the Big East got robbed. Three teams? UConn and Marquette are two of the best teams in the country.
My pick? UConn.
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
I think MSU is playing a bit different now. They gave Purdue all they wanted in back to back games to end the season. And they took care of Minnesota who had been playing well and had "home court" for the Big Ten tourney.
This team will be one of the biggest mysteries in the history of the BT. So much talent and expectations only to lose 14 games. Their guard play is going to determine how far they get.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Many years ago, I worked for Kyle Smith's dad and got go pal around with Kyle at some local basketball tournaments when schools from other states would come play local schools from Oregon. I loved doing that, it was a blast and Kyle is a great, great guy. Back then, he was an assistant coach with Air Force then got hired on at St. Mary's when Randy Bennett got the job. Not gonna lie, it was a pretty cool experience getting to meet Randy and some of the other assistant coaches and players. They were HORRIBLE his first season, but they turned it around quickly and Kyle was his top lieutenant.
Funny how Randy has remained in place at St. Mary's all this time. I was certain a bigger school would come calling, but maybe he loves it there? I think at some point St. Mary's will make a deeper run. In 2010 they made the Sweet 16 but that's as far as he's taken 'em. Always rooting for the Gaels.
But I think the more interesting trajectory is that of Kyle Smith. Put in the work, the long hours, the grind, all basketball all the time. He got his first HC job at Columbia, parlayed that into the job at San Francisco and now has Washington State in the big dance as a 7 seed in his 5th year there. And I couldn't name one player on his team, but I know this - count out Kyle Smith at your own risk! GO COUGS!
Funny how Randy has remained in place at St. Mary's all this time. I was certain a bigger school would come calling, but maybe he loves it there? I think at some point St. Mary's will make a deeper run. In 2010 they made the Sweet 16 but that's as far as he's taken 'em. Always rooting for the Gaels.
But I think the more interesting trajectory is that of Kyle Smith. Put in the work, the long hours, the grind, all basketball all the time. He got his first HC job at Columbia, parlayed that into the job at San Francisco and now has Washington State in the big dance as a 7 seed in his 5th year there. And I couldn't name one player on his team, but I know this - count out Kyle Smith at your own risk! GO COUGS!
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Could lose in the first round or play in the final four: Every Big Ten team.
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
Michigan State has to get scoring from their bigs, even a little, to have any chance of advancing. In addition, if they can get into a long-term up tempo game they will do better than setting an offense because they are very undisciplined and fire bad shots at will, and their bigs aren’t good enough to be a presence inside, save for Booker at times. I think they handle MSU Jr. From there it’s a huge question mark.
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Scoresman
Footballguy
This seems to be another year for Michigan State where they have a questionable resume, great analytics numbers, and a bunch of people moaning about them making the tournament. Seems like this has happened before and Izzo always seems to overachieve with these kind of teams. Any reason to think this year they wouldn’t?
I’ve always sworn I would stop betting against Izzo in the tournament, but this year they are a 9 and get a 1 seed matchup early.
General Malaise
Footballguy
I'm sold
BroncoFreak_2K3
sucker for Orange
The HIMS special play
WDIK2
Footballguy
Nebraska AD Trev Alberts left last week to take the AD job at Texas A&M. On Sunday morning my nephew sent me a meme having something to do about Nebraska being matched up with A&M in the first round, controlling the tip and launching it into the stands at Alberts' head. (I didn't say it was a funny meme).
Then the committee went and did it.
Later last night the women's selection committee matched the Nebraska women up with.... Texas A&M.
Then the committee went and did it.
Later last night the women's selection committee matched the Nebraska women up with.... Texas A&M.
whoknew
Footballguy
I see a lot of folks (on other sites) mentioning Kentucky as a sleeper. Then I looked into them - they have the 108th best defense according to kenpom and 123 on Torvik. Holy moly. That’s really bad. Hard to see them making a long run with that.
If there are KY fans who can enlighten on that, much appreciated.
If there are KY fans who can enlighten on that, much appreciated.
Uruk-Hai
Footballguy
I think Kansas is in trouble as far as making a long run. As you say, they're banged up and they haven't been especially consistent even when they've been healthy.
However, Samford is boom or bust and Kansas has enough talent to beat them even with all of their dings. They have a HOF coach and a legit big man. This just feels like an awful matchup for them.
I'm almost always wrong, though, so UK will probably win the damned title again
CletiusMaximus
Footballguy
Another potential first round upset this year is Morehead St. over Illinois
urbanhack
Fight The Power!
I'm not seeing it. Illinois will just outscore them.
Desert_Power
Footballguy
I guess the theory is that they still have a lot of NBA-ready talent and could turn it on. Went on a bit of a run late in the year but had to put up a lot of points to do it.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
i agree that Samford is not a good bet to upset Kansas, but I sort of like Mcneese state to knock off gonzaga and then beat Kansas.I think Kansas is in trouble as far as making a long run. As you say, they're banged up and they haven't been especially consistent even when they've been healthy.
However, Samford is boom or bust and Kansas has enough talent to beat them even with all of their dings. They have a HOF coach and a legit big man. This just feels like an awful matchup for them.
I'm almost always wrong, though, so UK will probably win the damned title again
Penguin
Footballguy
BREAKING: “Kevin (McCullar) will not play. He’s out. We’re shutting him down for the entire tournament” - Bill Self
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
They are fun, but to be fair, they scored the 118+ against some terrible teams and the 134 came against VMI who historically plays a run and gun and no D style themselvesI'll throw some JMU stuff out if @tommyGunZ isn't hanging around these parts anymore.
Meantime, my gotta-watch team is Samford. They play an insane brand of hoops - press for 40 minutes, no matter the score. They run and run and run. I think they have 13 guys who average over 10 minutes per game. They sub out like hockey teams do. All of their guys run sub-6 minute miles. Their coach got hired from a local high school in Birmingham and had never coached a college game before.
They had two games in a row where they scored over 118 points in each. They scored 134 in another game
Scoresman
Footballguy
I’m seeing Charleston, Oregon, and New Mexico as the best upset candidates according to the analytics.
My gut tells me Long Beach State knocks out Arizona. Stories like theirs always seem to persist in March. Combine this with Arizona’s inability to play well consistently.
My gut tells me Long Beach State knocks out Arizona. Stories like theirs always seem to persist in March. Combine this with Arizona’s inability to play well consistently.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
I like Oregon and New Mexico. I do like Charleston, but why do you like them as an upset? Bama is quite high on kenpom .
The General
Footballguy
Painful watching Wagner choke this away.
Scoresman
Footballguy
- Alabama Defensive efficiency is 112. That's suspect for a top seed.
- Alabama plays much less efficient away from home.
- One of the lowest point spreads of the top seed/low seed matchups.
- They have been playing their worst basketball of late efficiency wise, by a ton.
Outside of Kansas who are dealing with injuries, they have the lowest kenpom win probability (83%) of the top 4 seeds.
Still more likely to not happen than happen, but they're on my list of potential upsets.
Long Ball Larry
Footballguy
Good reverse jinx
Don Quixote
Footballguy
First to 50 going to win this one?
MAC_32
Footballguy
Charleston can get hot from 3 too. Against a team adverse to playing D that can be trouble.
$tanley Cup
Footballguy
I wasn’t mad but sad Sooners didn’t make the tourney. I thought any team on the bubble could definitely ask why Virginia and not us?
Virginia lost by 35 to Va Tech and lost by 20 six times this year. They are awful.
Virginia lost by 35 to Va Tech and lost by 20 six times this year. They are awful.
$tanley Cup
Footballguy
This would be a good football halftime score.
Don Quixote
Footballguy
First points scored by UVA in about 60 minutes real time. 
General Malaise
Footballguy
Oh my GOD was that an absolute embarrassing effort by Virginia. ACC must have been dog mess this year if Virginia got a play-in.
$tanley Cup
Footballguy
ah man I fell asleep. Did Virginia have a one shining moment comeback?
