Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Let’s take a look at week 1 and see who has great match ups and who has the tough ones…as always you want to start the studs you drafted.
Miami vs Pittsburgh
Ronnie Brown: Let’s look what Brown has done on the road against some of the better defenses…cause Pittsburgh is great against the run. @TB 9/22/1, 2/44, @SD 11/30, @NE 8/21, 2/13…Pittsburgh allows about 80 yds a game on the ground at home lately. Will Pitt be as good as they were last year…that’s sort of for you to decide but I think a little of the intensity will be lost. Big Ben out is not good but it might inspire that defense to not give an inch as they have Batch controlling the offense for the time being. This is not a good match up for Brown but he has been in the league only 1 year.
FWP: Miami’s run defense can be a little suspect on the road. This is a night game and not being played at JRS at 1:00PM where the heat and humidity in September are miserable for road teams. So I think FWP has a decent chance to put up some good numbers here…but wait a minute…with Big Ben out for the game, Miami will likely key on the run. In the overall picture, even if FWP gets 25 touches which I think is very likely, he might have a hard time having anything better than an average night.
Atlanta vs Carolina
Warrick Dunn: 8/17, 100/2Tds, 23yds, 16/76/1, 28/134/1, 16/80, 7/29…these are the games he has had playing the Panthers. The bigger games he had were in 2004 when Carolina was in a bit of a downturn…for some people he is an RB3 this week or maybe a flex starter. With no TJ Duckett he might get more work around the end zone. I would say Dunn’s match up is not optimum but he will rack a few yards as he has to get a certain amount of touches. What a game in week 1…division rivalry already.
DeShaun Foster: Atlanta appears as though they are still having trouble stopping the run. I expect DeShaun to get his season started off with a big game. The rushing match up favors the Panthers better than the passing game will. Look for Carolina to pound the football.
Baltimore vs Tampa Bay
Jamal Lewis: Has been nursing an injury the past 3 weeks. I don’t like the match up in Tampa. Tampa gave up 150 yds at home last season to Atlanta and 180 to Washington but everyone else got little to nothing on them. I wouldn’t be too excited about Lewis lining up this week.
“Cadillac”: Believe it or not Baltimore was actually pretty giving in the rushing dept on the road last season. They did draft a new DT in the draft named Ngata but he is a rookie and I don’t think they magically become world beaters because of that pick. I am sure Cadillac owners are worried about this match up but I think he will get loose and I expect him to total 100 yds in this game.
Buffalo at New England
Willis McGahee: NE was so desperate for help they went out and found Junior to play LB. I think McGahee will get plenty of snaps and he should total 100 yds in this contest IMO. He amassed 150+ total yds @NE last season.
Corey Dillon: With Maroney out Dillon will have a chance to put up one of his bigger games this season…I like Dillon to score and rush for 100 yds in this game. Dillon has feasted on Buffalo the past 2 seasons…check out these stats/points…100yds/1TD, 150+yds, 70/2TDs, 130/1TD…that’s his output in 4 dividional games the past 2 seasons. Dillon is a great play this week.
Cincinnati at Kansas City
Rudi Johnson: This is not as good a match up as some will think. KC was actually very good at keeping the rush in check at home last season…they gave up 200+ yds on the ground to both Denver and NYGiants but those games were on the road. Rudi is an impressive runner and the game Cinci played in week 17 last season where they lost 37-3…you have to throw that out the window. Rudi will cross the goal line but he might only rack up somewhere in the 50-75 yard range as I think this game will be settled thru the air.
Larry Johnson: I hope FF owners are not expecting the pinball numbers he got the last 8 weeks of the season again this year. I think LJ is gonna have to work hard for his yds this season…ever see him or Priest run a sweep left inside the 5 or 10 yd line the last 4 seasons? Never touched! Things will be different this year. This is a good match up though as Cinci looks like they still have not figured out how to stop the run. Maybe LJ will have a pinball game in week 1.
Denver at St Louis
MBell/TBell: Your guess is as good as mine. Mike Bell will likely touch the ball 1st but I expect there to be a rotation at RB as many of you presume as well. If you can avoid this situation the 1st week I would. St. Louis is not going to be great at stopping the run this season, and will offer some good match ups as the season progresses but trying to figure out which Denver RB to start may be a gamble at best.
Steven Jackson: Is he healthy? Has been nursing a bad heel. I don’t think this is a great match up as Denver has 3 very quick hard hitting LBs and they will show up ready to shut down the run. Most of their contests on the road last season the rush defense was very good. 6 of their contests they held the opposition to under 100 yds total rushing. @Jax 12(yes 12), @NYG 97, @Oak 60, @Dallas 85, @Buff 75, @SD 91…that’s a pretty good road record. Jackson may have to wait a week to get on track.
New Orleans at Cleveland
Reggie Bush: We have no idea how many plays he will be on the field for. My guess is he is brought along a little slow the 1st 3-4 games. They have Deuce and there is no reason to rush this guy. Still, look for him to touch the ball 10-15 times in the game so we will get a better feel for him after this week. I would not be starting him week 1.
Deuce McAllister: Looked good in preseason at times. He will likely get at least 15 carries in this contest. 75 yds and a TD are not out of the question for him in this contest. Cleveland has an improved defense but they were very giving last season on the ground even at home. Deuce might make a good option in the flex this weekend.
Reuben Droughns: I hate to pick on NO for last season as they had bigger problems than football but they were fairly easy to run on. Droughns should have a good game and Fraley was acquired from the Eagles, look for Droughns to find room…I expect him to post over 100yds and score at elast once on the ground this week. This will be one of his bigger games of the season.
NYJets at Tennessee
Barlow/Blaylock/Houston: I heard Blaylock was gonna be cut…he did carry the ball 25 times in the final preseason game, a sure sign a player is on the bubble at best. I heard Cedric Houston was going to be a casualty…but they are both still on the team. I would stay away from the Jets for a week till we get a clear idea who is going to carry the rock there.
Brown/Henry/White: This is a mess too. Brown is the starter one minute, the next it’s Henry. I think lenDale White is totally a bench player right now. Eventually Brown or Henry might get moved especially if a playoff caliber team has an injury early season you could see something happen there. Henry has 2 strikes against him though on the substance abuse policy…one more and he is gone for the entire season. Steer clear of the Titans right now.
Philly at Houston
Brian Westbrook: An injury risk right now…50/50 as to whether he can play this week or not. I would not start him this week. I think McNabb can pass Philly to a win this week anyways so stay away from Westy till he is at least probable and maybe after you have seen him play a week too.
Wali Lundy: He is the starter. I like him in a flex line up or position this week. Look for him to touch the ball 15-20 times during the game, probably will see action out of the backfield. May not cross the goal line but I don’t think 75-100 total yds is out of the question. In PPR leagues he is going to shine a little more.
Seattle at Detroit
Shaun Alexander: Interesting to see life after Hutch. He will do fine.
Kevin Jones: The Seahawks were really good against the run the 2nd half of last season. Mike martz is not going to hand the ball off to KJ 20-25 times a game so KJ will need to catch the ball in order to produce some points. I think KJ will have an OK game but could get shut down rushing. He is not a strong play this week.
Chicago at Green Bay
Thomas Jones: I like this play. He is starting and Cedric is not ready to go as this is being written. Benson may prove to vulture away a lot of carries as the season goes on but I think TJ will have a nice game this week. He has been nursing some injuries as well, still like him against a soft GB defense this week.
Ahman Green: He’s starting. He will get his shots but I don’t like this match up. Chicago is due to come back down to earth a bit on defense but Lovie Smith is a Tony Dungy disciple and there is also a good chance Chicago will still be pretty darn tough to rush on. Urlacher is free to roam and take heads off. Well the fact I wrote about Chicago the whole time instead of Ahman Green ought to tell you something. Not a strong play this week.
Dallas at Jax
Julius Jones: You know he is gonna split some carries with MBIII. Gonna be interesting to see if the Dallas OL is any good and the Jax DL will be a good test. I think Dallas will take to the air…they have a lot of weapons in the pass attack so don’t be surprised if this week Julius gets overlooked a bit in the game plan. Not a great match up this week.
Fred Taylor: Have you seen the Dallas defense this year yet? WoW! They look set tot ake on the world but real games will be the decider for them. I don’t like Taylor to get loose this week and Dallas will shut down the Jax rush attack.
San Fran at Arizona
Frank Gore: Like the match up for him. 100 yds and maybe a score.
Edge: We are going to find out real quick if the Cards can run the ball or not…cause if they can’t run it on San Fran’s rush defense then you better trade Edge for whatever you can get for him quickly. I expect Edge to do well this week…this is a great match up for him.
Indy at NYGiants
Dominic Rhodes: I expect him to start on the road. He’s a veteran and will pick up the blitz to help protect the real offense…Peyton manning and the pass attack. Lot of offense to go around in this game so Rhodes is likely to score at some point. Addai to me is a pinerider till he actually is named as a starter for this team.
Tiki Barber: Start him…did you need me to say that? Didn’t think so.
Minnesota at Washington
Chester Taylor: Not this week. I expect Washington to play hard on defense and shut down the running game…I don’t like Taylor. Anyone actually ever see Chester Taylor? 5’11” 210 lbs…if he is actually that big I’m surprised. You’ve heard the term “he plays big”…Taylor plays small IMO. Bad match up this week.
Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts/TJ Duckett: Duckett is still learning the offense, I expect him to touch the ball very little in the 1st week. If Portis cannot play than I think Betts might actually be a decent play this weekend. You will need to watch the injury reports but Gibbs has said Portis is doubtful for week 1.
San Diego at Oakland
LaDainian Tomlinson: Huge game on Monday Night…what do you want to hear? 150+yds and 2TDs? OK
Lamont Jordan: Losing Steve Foley may not hurt the Chargers rush defense as much as some think. He is better as pass rusher and can sometimes be a liability in one on one coverage with a RB. Jordan has his work cut out for him. 36 yds and 55 yds rushing in the 2 games last season…did score 2 TDs in the 1st contest. You have to start Jordan but I don’t see this as a great match up for him.
OK, chime in and play nice, thanks.
Miami vs Pittsburgh
Ronnie Brown: Let’s look what Brown has done on the road against some of the better defenses…cause Pittsburgh is great against the run. @TB 9/22/1, 2/44, @SD 11/30, @NE 8/21, 2/13…Pittsburgh allows about 80 yds a game on the ground at home lately. Will Pitt be as good as they were last year…that’s sort of for you to decide but I think a little of the intensity will be lost. Big Ben out is not good but it might inspire that defense to not give an inch as they have Batch controlling the offense for the time being. This is not a good match up for Brown but he has been in the league only 1 year.
FWP: Miami’s run defense can be a little suspect on the road. This is a night game and not being played at JRS at 1:00PM where the heat and humidity in September are miserable for road teams. So I think FWP has a decent chance to put up some good numbers here…but wait a minute…with Big Ben out for the game, Miami will likely key on the run. In the overall picture, even if FWP gets 25 touches which I think is very likely, he might have a hard time having anything better than an average night.
Atlanta vs Carolina
Warrick Dunn: 8/17, 100/2Tds, 23yds, 16/76/1, 28/134/1, 16/80, 7/29…these are the games he has had playing the Panthers. The bigger games he had were in 2004 when Carolina was in a bit of a downturn…for some people he is an RB3 this week or maybe a flex starter. With no TJ Duckett he might get more work around the end zone. I would say Dunn’s match up is not optimum but he will rack a few yards as he has to get a certain amount of touches. What a game in week 1…division rivalry already.
DeShaun Foster: Atlanta appears as though they are still having trouble stopping the run. I expect DeShaun to get his season started off with a big game. The rushing match up favors the Panthers better than the passing game will. Look for Carolina to pound the football.
Baltimore vs Tampa Bay
Jamal Lewis: Has been nursing an injury the past 3 weeks. I don’t like the match up in Tampa. Tampa gave up 150 yds at home last season to Atlanta and 180 to Washington but everyone else got little to nothing on them. I wouldn’t be too excited about Lewis lining up this week.
“Cadillac”: Believe it or not Baltimore was actually pretty giving in the rushing dept on the road last season. They did draft a new DT in the draft named Ngata but he is a rookie and I don’t think they magically become world beaters because of that pick. I am sure Cadillac owners are worried about this match up but I think he will get loose and I expect him to total 100 yds in this game.
Buffalo at New England
Willis McGahee: NE was so desperate for help they went out and found Junior to play LB. I think McGahee will get plenty of snaps and he should total 100 yds in this contest IMO. He amassed 150+ total yds @NE last season.
Corey Dillon: With Maroney out Dillon will have a chance to put up one of his bigger games this season…I like Dillon to score and rush for 100 yds in this game. Dillon has feasted on Buffalo the past 2 seasons…check out these stats/points…100yds/1TD, 150+yds, 70/2TDs, 130/1TD…that’s his output in 4 dividional games the past 2 seasons. Dillon is a great play this week.
Cincinnati at Kansas City
Rudi Johnson: This is not as good a match up as some will think. KC was actually very good at keeping the rush in check at home last season…they gave up 200+ yds on the ground to both Denver and NYGiants but those games were on the road. Rudi is an impressive runner and the game Cinci played in week 17 last season where they lost 37-3…you have to throw that out the window. Rudi will cross the goal line but he might only rack up somewhere in the 50-75 yard range as I think this game will be settled thru the air.
Larry Johnson: I hope FF owners are not expecting the pinball numbers he got the last 8 weeks of the season again this year. I think LJ is gonna have to work hard for his yds this season…ever see him or Priest run a sweep left inside the 5 or 10 yd line the last 4 seasons? Never touched! Things will be different this year. This is a good match up though as Cinci looks like they still have not figured out how to stop the run. Maybe LJ will have a pinball game in week 1.
Denver at St Louis
MBell/TBell: Your guess is as good as mine. Mike Bell will likely touch the ball 1st but I expect there to be a rotation at RB as many of you presume as well. If you can avoid this situation the 1st week I would. St. Louis is not going to be great at stopping the run this season, and will offer some good match ups as the season progresses but trying to figure out which Denver RB to start may be a gamble at best.
Steven Jackson: Is he healthy? Has been nursing a bad heel. I don’t think this is a great match up as Denver has 3 very quick hard hitting LBs and they will show up ready to shut down the run. Most of their contests on the road last season the rush defense was very good. 6 of their contests they held the opposition to under 100 yds total rushing. @Jax 12(yes 12), @NYG 97, @Oak 60, @Dallas 85, @Buff 75, @SD 91…that’s a pretty good road record. Jackson may have to wait a week to get on track.
New Orleans at Cleveland
Reggie Bush: We have no idea how many plays he will be on the field for. My guess is he is brought along a little slow the 1st 3-4 games. They have Deuce and there is no reason to rush this guy. Still, look for him to touch the ball 10-15 times in the game so we will get a better feel for him after this week. I would not be starting him week 1.
Deuce McAllister: Looked good in preseason at times. He will likely get at least 15 carries in this contest. 75 yds and a TD are not out of the question for him in this contest. Cleveland has an improved defense but they were very giving last season on the ground even at home. Deuce might make a good option in the flex this weekend.
Reuben Droughns: I hate to pick on NO for last season as they had bigger problems than football but they were fairly easy to run on. Droughns should have a good game and Fraley was acquired from the Eagles, look for Droughns to find room…I expect him to post over 100yds and score at elast once on the ground this week. This will be one of his bigger games of the season.
NYJets at Tennessee
Barlow/Blaylock/Houston: I heard Blaylock was gonna be cut…he did carry the ball 25 times in the final preseason game, a sure sign a player is on the bubble at best. I heard Cedric Houston was going to be a casualty…but they are both still on the team. I would stay away from the Jets for a week till we get a clear idea who is going to carry the rock there.
Brown/Henry/White: This is a mess too. Brown is the starter one minute, the next it’s Henry. I think lenDale White is totally a bench player right now. Eventually Brown or Henry might get moved especially if a playoff caliber team has an injury early season you could see something happen there. Henry has 2 strikes against him though on the substance abuse policy…one more and he is gone for the entire season. Steer clear of the Titans right now.
Philly at Houston
Brian Westbrook: An injury risk right now…50/50 as to whether he can play this week or not. I would not start him this week. I think McNabb can pass Philly to a win this week anyways so stay away from Westy till he is at least probable and maybe after you have seen him play a week too.
Wali Lundy: He is the starter. I like him in a flex line up or position this week. Look for him to touch the ball 15-20 times during the game, probably will see action out of the backfield. May not cross the goal line but I don’t think 75-100 total yds is out of the question. In PPR leagues he is going to shine a little more.
Seattle at Detroit
Shaun Alexander: Interesting to see life after Hutch. He will do fine.
Kevin Jones: The Seahawks were really good against the run the 2nd half of last season. Mike martz is not going to hand the ball off to KJ 20-25 times a game so KJ will need to catch the ball in order to produce some points. I think KJ will have an OK game but could get shut down rushing. He is not a strong play this week.
Chicago at Green Bay
Thomas Jones: I like this play. He is starting and Cedric is not ready to go as this is being written. Benson may prove to vulture away a lot of carries as the season goes on but I think TJ will have a nice game this week. He has been nursing some injuries as well, still like him against a soft GB defense this week.
Ahman Green: He’s starting. He will get his shots but I don’t like this match up. Chicago is due to come back down to earth a bit on defense but Lovie Smith is a Tony Dungy disciple and there is also a good chance Chicago will still be pretty darn tough to rush on. Urlacher is free to roam and take heads off. Well the fact I wrote about Chicago the whole time instead of Ahman Green ought to tell you something. Not a strong play this week.
Dallas at Jax
Julius Jones: You know he is gonna split some carries with MBIII. Gonna be interesting to see if the Dallas OL is any good and the Jax DL will be a good test. I think Dallas will take to the air…they have a lot of weapons in the pass attack so don’t be surprised if this week Julius gets overlooked a bit in the game plan. Not a great match up this week.
Fred Taylor: Have you seen the Dallas defense this year yet? WoW! They look set tot ake on the world but real games will be the decider for them. I don’t like Taylor to get loose this week and Dallas will shut down the Jax rush attack.
San Fran at Arizona
Frank Gore: Like the match up for him. 100 yds and maybe a score.
Edge: We are going to find out real quick if the Cards can run the ball or not…cause if they can’t run it on San Fran’s rush defense then you better trade Edge for whatever you can get for him quickly. I expect Edge to do well this week…this is a great match up for him.
Indy at NYGiants
Dominic Rhodes: I expect him to start on the road. He’s a veteran and will pick up the blitz to help protect the real offense…Peyton manning and the pass attack. Lot of offense to go around in this game so Rhodes is likely to score at some point. Addai to me is a pinerider till he actually is named as a starter for this team.
Tiki Barber: Start him…did you need me to say that? Didn’t think so.
Minnesota at Washington
Chester Taylor: Not this week. I expect Washington to play hard on defense and shut down the running game…I don’t like Taylor. Anyone actually ever see Chester Taylor? 5’11” 210 lbs…if he is actually that big I’m surprised. You’ve heard the term “he plays big”…Taylor plays small IMO. Bad match up this week.
Clinton Portis/Ladell Betts/TJ Duckett: Duckett is still learning the offense, I expect him to touch the ball very little in the 1st week. If Portis cannot play than I think Betts might actually be a decent play this weekend. You will need to watch the injury reports but Gibbs has said Portis is doubtful for week 1.
San Diego at Oakland
LaDainian Tomlinson: Huge game on Monday Night…what do you want to hear? 150+yds and 2TDs? OK
Lamont Jordan: Losing Steve Foley may not hurt the Chargers rush defense as much as some think. He is better as pass rusher and can sometimes be a liability in one on one coverage with a RB. Jordan has his work cut out for him. 36 yds and 55 yds rushing in the 2 games last season…did score 2 TDs in the 1st contest. You have to start Jordan but I don’t see this as a great match up for him.
OK, chime in and play nice, thanks.
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. I would argue,that, Week One, draft slots do have a role. You draft according to who you think will produce most in the regular season. When you submit your line up, you have not seen them play reg. season, so theoreticaly nothing has changed. After that, I agree. I would never sit a proven player for a less proven one just because of who I drafted first. But no one is proven to me yet for this season. That said, I mainly had Foster below Taylor because of injury risk; since he's healthy, I could make the argument to start him. And, I guess you could also make the argument that Foster is more proven because Chester has not been a starter. Hmmm....just had this draft today and may have some more thinking to do.
Hope I'm still playing nice, wouldn't want to break the MoP thread rules...
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... with the WR mess and Maroney likely out Faulk will suddenly become Brady's best friend, well next to Watson that is!
