Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
You seem to be missing the point I was making but carry on.
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****OFFICIAL DYNASTY TRADES**** (7 Viewers)
- Thread starter Gottabesweet
- Start date
JohnnyU
Footballguy
No, I got it, you would rather throw a dart in the later rounds than roster either Pollard or Watson, even if it's mostly garbage.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
What draft pick could you get for Pollard in that league realistically?
JohnnyU
Footballguy
A lot of RB desperate teams, but I wouldn't give an early 2nd or him in that format. Because I can see his value spiraling down in 2024, but not everyone may agree with that. I could see someone biting on an early 2nd for Watson given how bad the available pool is most of the time in this format. Players like that are probably best to try and package in a larger deal.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
Interesting. Seems like Pollard would be a buy at a mid to late 2nd round '24 draft pick... Might go fishing this afternoon.
ETA - in 12 team, non DEVY leagues, of course. Edited again for clarity
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kutta
Footballguy
Yes, I agree with this.
I'm pretty sure the trade included 2 firsts along with JSN, so it's sort of like 3 firsts for JJ. I agree with your statement about elite players, and as I said earlier, I most likely wouldn't do the trade. But I do think that if we revisit this next year the trade will look much better for the guy getting JSN.
JohnnyU
Footballguy
Not bad, but I still like Collins as their WR#1. I think people are slightly prematurely down on Walker. but maybe I'm wrong. Fair trade. I like the moving from 3.06 to 2.08.
It's ok, I've not done it though, at least not yet.
If I'm worried about a team making a RB addition and the current RB(s) losing value then it's a great time to sale but I don't think Walker has those concerns.
With the strength of this draft class and weakness being WR vs RB I just think the zest for RB's will outpace that for a WR over the next few months and it's likely to me that their values will just go up. I'm more or less holding onto any RB right now whose value is insulated and would prefer to look at moving them during the draft or later when RB need grows.
Tank was great, liked how Stroud said they were going to have a great career "together", had for sure moved into must start status for me on the teams I had him. But he's still tiny, got two injuries which knocked him out and is surprisingly already about to turn 25. None of those things are really bad on their own but combo of all of all that combined with the scarcity of RB's I'm going to wait and see if a better cash out opportunity for Walker does not present itself if I was wanting to move a RB for a WR.
Not ignoring the pick updgrade, that's nice, but not enough.
Players with ease.
I thought so too.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Here’s the thing about that sort of deal. If you’re stacking up pieces to equal a top tier player & it comes up even, it’s not nearly enough to incentivize me to move a JJ.
I’m in talks of selling Mahomes in a 16 team SF. Dude sends me an offer and explains that his 2x early 1sts + a lower tier player equals Mahomes. Points to a couple calcs and trade value charts.
I responded that to move Mahomes, I’d need roughly 35% return - meaning another 1st or player of that value, and maybe more. I’m not moving Mahomes for 2 rookies and a minor piece. That just doesn’t add up to a Mahomes. I see the early 1sts as being worth about 1.5 picks ea. I see the player as being worth about a 3rd. So 3x 1sts and a 3rd. If I hit on both rookies, then sure, it’s worth it. But the risk of a miss is a significant factor.
JJ is a top tier WR. The WR1, and in his own tier. JSN is like WR50? Sure, there’s upside. And sure, those rookie picks are valuable. But they don’t add up to JJ.
A bona fide proven commodity has intrinsic value that those picks do not. This is where calcs and charts often fail. With picks it’s not quite the same as stacking up 4 quarters to make a dollar, which is a different issue with them. granted, those picks could actually be worth more than a dollar if they hit. But since there’s a wide range of outcomes, and development time also a potential factor, I need x > = value to move a top tier asset.
And I guess some of that depends on what position my roster is in. If I’m hurting at a couple spots and need to diversify JJ or Mahomes value into multiple assets, I could see taking less. But if my roster is strong, I’m looking to profit or imma stand pat.
Anyway, just my rambling thoughts on value since I’m in the midst of talks right now & it’s a subject near and dear.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I don’t mind this deal given your team needs.
Value feels about right. And if you’re deep at RB, even more so.
Dell had some monster games. Walker seems to get dinged up a lot.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
That's pretty close, but man I'd hate to give up Walker, a young stud, and Ridley an older almost stud for what will end up being near dart throws. You'd be looking at Brian Thomas JR or Troy Franklin and one of the upper tier RBs in this not great class. If I'm even close to competing, I don't do this. Heck, even on rebuild I'm not sure I'd do it.
For the guy getting the picks, it’s definitely a rebuild. Kind of get it because of Charbonnet lurking. Not a bad deal by any means but I also like Ridley more than most so like the player side.
Good god. Fields and Downs please
Yeah, free stuff.
If I saw or posted a trade of 2.8 for Fields and another trade of 2.8 for Downs I think most here would think people would mainly view those as fair to good deals to acquire them. That's if you were just getting one of them.
With this class, I would need a top 4 pick to consider moving Walker. Maybe something like the 1.05 plus something would get me to consider it but maybe not. 16 team league I would be even more towards Walker, not a lot of starting RB's out there to start with, but even more so in a 16 teamer.
Would you trade #3 overall for Walker straight up?
Would be a tough decision, likely depending on team makeup. If I need WR's or a TE or rebuilding probably not. A contender needing a RB I would definitely consider it (especially if I'm good at TE). I imagine most would lean towards the pick if its Walker alone. If Charbonnet was part of the package as insurance it would definitely make it easier for me to go RB.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
I smell rookie fever here. I easily would take the players regardless of where my team was at.
FFPC, 1QB BLOCKBUSTER DEAL
My Team made playoffs last year but lost right away and the team is aging out quickly. Made the decision to sell off all assets worth anything.
Gave; AJ Brown, Mike Evans, Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Andrews, Brandon Cooks
Got; 1.01, 1.03, Jordan Love, Quentin Johnston, Michael Mayer, Dobbins, Michael Wilson, 2.08, 2.11, 3.01, 4.01, 2025 2nd and 3rd
Felt like I’d have one last hurray with this group but if it didn’t happen in 2024 then I’d be in a dire situation with team full of depreciating assets. Didn’t want to move Andrews or Barkley but this was the package. Thoughts
My Team made playoffs last year but lost right away and the team is aging out quickly. Made the decision to sell off all assets worth anything.
Gave; AJ Brown, Mike Evans, Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Andrews, Brandon Cooks
Got; 1.01, 1.03, Jordan Love, Quentin Johnston, Michael Mayer, Dobbins, Michael Wilson, 2.08, 2.11, 3.01, 4.01, 2025 2nd and 3rd
Felt like I’d have one last hurray with this group but if it didn’t happen in 2024 then I’d be in a dire situation with team full of depreciating assets. Didn’t want to move Andrews or Barkley but this was the package. Thoughts
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I think you probably could have done better. I don't see anything of particular value in there besides the high 1sts this year,
But obviously that's me projecting onto my leagues, and I'm not totally sure of how FFPC works. If that's the best you could do and you think all those guys are about to crater in value (they probably are) then it's fine. Selling off all that production presumably strengthens the value of your own picks in 2025 (which you hopefully still have) so that's also a potential plus point for you.
But obviously that's me projecting onto my leagues, and I'm not totally sure of how FFPC works. If that's the best you could do and you think all those guys are about to crater in value (they probably are) then it's fine. Selling off all that production presumably strengthens the value of your own picks in 2025 (which you hopefully still have) so that's also a potential plus point for you.
Are you really getting Thomas
1. MHJ 2. Nabers 3. Odzune 4. Bowers 5. Thomas 6. Buf or KC WR(could be Franklin, Coleman, Mitchell, McConkey, Worthy, Legette) 7. Another WR at end of 1st or top of 2nd or top RB 8. Williams 9. WR6/7 or RB 1/2 10. WR or RB 11. QB2 or WR/RB 12. QB or WR 13. Same
so really looking at WR drafted in round 2 to Carolina etc or RB in okay situation at 9 and QB or worse RB situations @ 13
Using Tankathon update I could see draft going
1. Harrison Ariz(4) 2. Nabers NYG(6) 3. Bowers LAC(5) 4. Odzune Chi(9) 5. Thomas Buf(28) 6. Franklin KC(32) 7. Williams Chi(1) 8. Corum LAC(69) 9. Coleman Balt(30) 10. Allen Dal(87) 11. Mitchell NE(34) 12. McConkey Atl(43) 13. Maye Was(2), Worthy Clev(54) , Brooks Balt(62), Benson Clev(85)
give me the veteran players. This draft real strength is QB, so SF and TE premium(Sanders in equation) is where draft strength comes from. Good depth for sure as still have Daniels NE(3), McCarthy Denv(12), Shipley GB(88), Sanders Wash(40), Legette Dal(56), Wilson Car(65) are nice but are they great. And find most mocks are very similar in the end.
InDitkaWeTrust
Footballguy
My bad, I missed that it was 1QB. Was thinking it was SF.
Enzo....the Baker
Footballguy
Think you did fine. All outside of AJ Brown are either free agents or hurt, and have strong chance of being subjected to a value edjustment.
Not a Mayer fan. Loved him as an ND Homer, but he lacks separation
I'd try like he.ll to take the late 2nds and early 3rd to move up
And then it's time to embrace the suck. Be patient and build another monster
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I would have probably run it back.
I’m not a fan of the return on that pile of talent, and I have no idea why AJB was a sell for you.
Outside of the early 1sts I don’t really love what you received. Sorry, don’t mean to bury you for it, but it feels really light.
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JamboTaylor
Footballguy
1.01
for
Rachaad White
Rashee Rice
for
Rachaad White
Rashee Rice
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Not sure what format, but that seems like a nice get both ways.
Assuming 1 QB, upgrading from Rice to MH2 at the cost of White is very affordable.
At the same time, 1.01 might need more than 1 player and could be a believer in Rice.
Fair deal, but I prefer 1.01 - partly because it’s fungible & could probably be flipped for more than Rice+White.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Kind of how I feel on this one. Take AJ Brown out, you've got a home run deal. With AJ Brown in there, I don't like it. I think the fair point is in between somewhere, but a lot closer to the actual trade than to the Brown-excluded hypothetical. So maybe not too bad, but I wouldn't have done it.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Wow. Even in our RB-crazy league, no. I'm taking the 1.01. Miles apart.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
I just don’t believe in QJ, Dobbins can’t stay on the field, and I’m not sure what Wilson is. Then it’s a bunch of 2nd and 3rd round picks.
Without AJB, I could see that return - but outside the picks there isn’t much there to get excited about.
eighsse2
Footballguy
Then again, I would consider Brown close to the 1.01. If you take both of those out and look at the rest of the pieces ... nah, man, still, even if those guys are old, that's A LOT of points you could put up in 2024. Would be okay with resetting by trading for picks and youth, but those aren't the picks and prospects I'd want.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Agreed.
Boston
Footballguy
Not a fan of this deal...I fully understand what you are trying to accomplish but it feels like you could have got a much better return if you made separate or combo moves with these players rather than this big one...the 1.1 and 1.3 are great gets and I really like Love but this is 1 QB so that does temper that a bit...the rest of the pieces feel like the old 5 nickels for a quarter trade...Johnston is still a huge question mark, Mayer looks like he could be good but not sure how high the potential upside is, Dobbins' injuries are well known, Wilson could turn into something but right now it feels like Michael Gallup is a best case scenario and the other picks are nothing special...I just don't see the upside for how much you gave up and the fact AJ Brown was one of the pieces kind of negates one of those valuable #1's...IMO there should have been a 2025 #1 and a different young piece with more upside involved with this move...I really like this move for the other guy...long-term giving up the 1.1 and 1.3 will sting a little but he didn't mortgage the future and most of these players should have at least another two very good years left and there is no doubt once the season starts he can get a real good return on some of these players (especially the RBs) if that is what he wants to do.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
This is the key take-away for me.
I started to respond to this last night but wanted to sleep on it. I actually typed this exact sentiment in my original response.
The return on those individual pieces could have been much better than the aggregate.
Since I'm not smart and put CMC on the block
Gave CMC and 2.08
Got Walker, Pitts and 1.11
I hated to trade CMC and had him since a Devy, but OK with the return
Gave CMC and 3.06
Gott Dell, Pitts and 1.11
[edited that there are 6 Devy spots available]
BigJim®
Footballguy
Agreed. I definitely think 1.9 has value. The problem with 1.9 (currently) is that you can't assume whoever you are targeting is going to be there. 1.5 to 1.12 is looking like a tier of RB/QB/leftover WRs. You're taking what folks from 1.5-1.8 passed on, which may well exclude the player you hoped to be there at 1.9.
I appreciate all the feed back. Tried to move pieces separately but no bites except one owner who wanted it all. Reset the clock big time on the two best assets;
MHJ > AJ Brown
Bowers/Nabers > Andrews
After that the remaining assets are quickly aging/ FA agent question marks. Time has shown these older backs don’t necessarily command big deals and total control of backfields at this point ( Barkley probably tagged and the exception). On top of that, this group mostly frustrated me down the stretch last year. I do eat a season but I think by this time next year this trade will be even and then in my favor in each season beyond.
Wigglytuff's Gruff
Footballguy
I think if you'd waited, and all those Rb's had landing spots for next season established, you could defo have got a bit more.
Still a fun trade, and that's what this game is about.
eighsse2
Footballguy
I will say, if this is TE premium, I think it gets pretty close to a fine deal. I wasn't thinking of the possibility that you get Nabers of Bowers goes at 1.02. I was assuming Odunze at 1.03. I don't consider TE's as much as I should sometimes because I come from a 0-1 TE league.
I think what you gave up was probably worth more in aggregate than what you got. (Not sure I've ever seen an FFPC trade this large, particularly before cutdown, and I've been doing FFPC dynasty for a while.) I absolutely understand wanting to move the older guys, but I probably would have waited for free agency, just to see where some of these guys land (Evans in KC, Jacobs in Dallas, Henry in Baltimore, etc). Still, that's easier said than done, so I can see going with the "bird in the hand" approach.
I will say that trading for the 1.01 and 1.03 this early does make it likely that rookie fever pushes the value of those picks up somewhat. So if people are saying you sold low on the guys you gave up, I think it's fair to say you likely bought low on those picks if they end up in great situations. That could even allow you to trade those picks for players you wouldn't have been able to get with the original group you traded away.
It broke my brain, that's not ripping the band aid off a team so much it's like ripping the body cast off. Kudo's to who even put that trade together.
I'll say this though, I agree with what you are saying here except maybe 2 years out and not end of next season. In term of the straight up players you will pick at 1 and 3 vs the player you gave up I think in 2+ years you are winning every future season. A very real chance that in two years from now the best haul any player you gave up in a trade could return is a mid to late first for what would then be a soon to be a 29 year old AJB. A then 31 year old Andrews might draw an end of round one pick, maybe.
But what we don't know is if you had peeled a bunch of those RB assets off for later or future 1's instead and how that would have looked long term.
I still truly struggle to process the trade it's so dang big, but it's a fun rebuild with tons of young ammo and roster spots opening up. I don't hate it.
Enzo....the Baker
Footballguy
Was unaware it was a.lump sum deal? Maybe you could have maximized value at the trade deadline, but to me, snagging 2 top dynasty assets in a rebuild is huge. Your first next year will be early and you just keep building. Your trade partner will be kicking himself next year at this time
Boston
Footballguy
He may also win two championships the next two years as he did not touch any core players on his roster outside of Love and will still have all his future #1’s.
Enzo....the Baker
Footballguy
The 1s will be late then
What's the other part of his roster look like
rockaction
Footballguy
I only chime in not to pile on, but for the readers of the thread. My take is a little bit different, or I have a reason that hasn't been discussed yet. When I initially saw the deal, I didn't like it at all for BigAl21. Now that I've heard the contrary opinions, I still think he might have waited for free agency to settle the running back conundrum. But then again, that's baked into the price, isn't it? Or at least it should have been.
My final verdict is that I don't really like it regardless of the points raised in its favor. This might be that we all differ in team construction and going for it, but I would venture on with the guys he had. Even though menobrown makes a compelling case for the trade, I think that if at the very least the running backs land in a good spot, then all it takes is one owner willing to overpay out of twelve instead of limiting yourself to the same guy.
That's where I think it went a little awry here. If you have twelve guys bidding against each other, the price is likely to rise on your assets. If you have one guy making the deal, he's mitigating and hedging in his own head, and it will affect your negotiations with him.
That's not concrete or perfect or always infallibly true—it's just something to consider for anybody else doing a deal like this.
My final verdict is that I don't really like it regardless of the points raised in its favor. This might be that we all differ in team construction and going for it, but I would venture on with the guys he had. Even though menobrown makes a compelling case for the trade, I think that if at the very least the running backs land in a good spot, then all it takes is one owner willing to overpay out of twelve instead of limiting yourself to the same guy.
That's where I think it went a little awry here. If you have twelve guys bidding against each other, the price is likely to rise on your assets. If you have one guy making the deal, he's mitigating and hedging in his own head, and it will affect your negotiations with him.
That's not concrete or perfect or always infallibly true—it's just something to consider for anybody else doing a deal like this.
