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Stock Thread (15 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
hooter311
Footballguy
Up. Their AI has potential as far as putting stuff interesting in my feed, better than facebook imo which should have way more data on me. Billion dollars a year in ad revenue as well. Think it could very easily justify a few more billion in marketcap.
I'm looking for a small entry after laughing off the stock a few weeks ago.
Todem
Footballguy
We are getting at least one.......two max is best case scenario.
I think IMO you do one .50 in September and that's it for at least another 2 quarters. See how the data plays out after 6 months.
But most likely they will do one .25 cut in September and done for 2024.
And quite frankly that's fine for now.
Sand
Footballguy
Considering I'm trying to buy more fixed rate instruments (CDs, treasuries) I wouldn't be unhappy with that. As noted above I bought a bit of a CEF that should do well in a degrading interest environment. I can't think of anything else that really kicks off during these kind of times. Maybe housing stocks (therefore maybe timber). Otherwise just try and lock in some high rate stuff and collect interest.
identikit
Footballguy
KGB
Footballguy
Wow. Nice ce
hooter311
Footballguy
Regarding $mstr, bitcoin miners (I own $mara, $hut, and $wulf), and bitcoin etfs (own $ibit)...
The supply crunch I've been yapping about for a decade now finally seems to be playing out and seems undeniable at this point in time.
Right now, the only thing allowing supply to keep up with demand are the outflows of $gbtc. With their fees now 6x the industry standard it makes no sense to leave money in there. The fund is currently bleeding around 5,000 btc a day which are being sold on coinbase.
After today there are about 330,000 btc left sitting in $gbtc. When those dry up in the next 6 months the price will have no choice but to go hyperbolic. There simply won't be any bitcoin to buy.
Daily etf flows can be monitored here:
farside.co.uk
As long as $gbtc is depleting and the rest are increasing it really doesnt matter what the price does between now and then, its just a matter of time. The speculators are playing billions in futures instead of actual bitcoin and thats what causes the bumping ride. The gaps fill fast.
The first true supply squeeze at these funding rates will be a ride for the ages...
The supply crunch I've been yapping about for a decade now finally seems to be playing out and seems undeniable at this point in time.
Right now, the only thing allowing supply to keep up with demand are the outflows of $gbtc. With their fees now 6x the industry standard it makes no sense to leave money in there. The fund is currently bleeding around 5,000 btc a day which are being sold on coinbase.
After today there are about 330,000 btc left sitting in $gbtc. When those dry up in the next 6 months the price will have no choice but to go hyperbolic. There simply won't be any bitcoin to buy.
Daily etf flows can be monitored here:
Bitcoin ETF Flow – Farside Investors
As long as $gbtc is depleting and the rest are increasing it really doesnt matter what the price does between now and then, its just a matter of time. The speculators are playing billions in futures instead of actual bitcoin and thats what causes the bumping ride. The gaps fill fast.
The first true supply squeeze at these funding rates will be a ride for the ages...
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KGB
Footballguy
What is your opinion on how to best take advantage? just buy BTC? fund? BTC is at its highest. personally, I think ETH is the next wave.Regarding $mstr, bitcoin miners (I own $mara, $hut, and $wulf), and bitcoin etfs (own $ibit)...
The supply crunch I've been yapping about for a decade now finally seems to be playing out and seems undeniable at this point in time.
Right now, the only thing allowing supply to keep up with demand are the outflows of $gbtc. With their fees now 6x the industry standard it makes no sense to leave money in there. The fund is currently bleeding around 5,000 btc a day which are being sold on coinbase.
After today there are about 330,000 btc left sitting in $gbtc. When those dry up in the next 6 months the price will have no choice but to go hyperbolic. There simply won't be any bitcoin to buy.
Daily etf flows can be monitored here:
Bitcoin ETF Flow – Farside Investors
The first true supply squeeze at these funding rates will be a ride for the ages...
Current prices.....
BTC - 66,815.00USD
ETH - 3,489.13USD
I think ETH doubles before BTC from here.....
hooter311
Footballguy
You very well could be right. ETH has 12x since the last time I decided I didnt like it. Lol. Its just a slightly different concept from the ground up and Ive never quite wrapped my head around it. My caveman understanding of it is that ETH isnt finite like bitcoin, but its more capable and layered as far as actual use. Gas fees for ETH have always blew my mind. I gotta stay in my bitcoin lane and say btc.What is your opinion on how to best take advantage? just buy BTC? fund? BTC is at its highest. personally, I think ETH is the next wave.Regarding $mstr, bitcoin miners (I own $mara, $hut, and $wulf), and bitcoin etfs (own $ibit)...
The supply crunch I've been yapping about for a decade now finally seems to be playing out and seems undeniable at this point in time.
Right now, the only thing allowing supply to keep up with demand are the outflows of $gbtc. With their fees now 6x the industry standard it makes no sense to leave money in there. The fund is currently bleeding around 5,000 btc a day which are being sold on coinbase.
After today there are about 330,000 btc left sitting in $gbtc. When those dry up in the next 6 months the price will have no choice but to go hyperbolic. There simply won't be any bitcoin to buy.
Daily etf flows can be monitored here:
Bitcoin ETF Flow – Farside Investors
The first true supply squeeze at these funding rates will be a ride for the ages...
Current prices.....
BTC - 66,815.00USD
ETH - 3,489.13USD
I think ETH doubles before BTC from here.....
But if i had to put my life on one I would pick Solana @$185 followed by Cardano @$0.60.
Bitcoin would be my third choice for soonest 2x
They are gonna make all kinds of noise about the "halvening" april 20th, but $gbtc drying up is 5x more important for the price.
KGB
Footballguy
Right now my money is in PUTing DWT and RDDT
but after that im all about moving back into crypto
hooter311
Footballguy
We are still at the early stages of this bitcoin bullrun imo. Like when we hit 20k last cycle.
98% of people are gonna be better off holding shares of an etf compared to actual bitcoin in a coinbase account. It's all backed and liquid and you cant get hacked or lose the password.
One thing about bitcoin and the etfs is there is always a dip and a buying opportunity around the corner(now), just don't try timing the bottom or the top.
This consolidation around $69,000 and keeping options out of the money on both sides is fantastic for our 6-9 month outlook. I'm looking at aug/sept as the time to start diversifying more personally, all in until then. I went through max pain and back with these stocks holding most of them the last three years.
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Niles Standish
Footballguy
I'm probably an old guy. Because I don't understand any use for Crypto other than speculation.
It doesn't lend itself for use as currency because the value swings wildly and it's of course difficult to use.
But even if they fix the utility I don't want to go to the grocery store and bananas are 3 units of insert crypto currency and by the time I get to the checkout they cost 5.
What am I missing does it have an actual use currently or likely in the future? Or is it just speculation where we have to hope it keeps going up forever tied to nothing?
hooter311
Footballguy
Find a Michael Saylor interview. He's smarter than me.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Tesla getting smoked. 1st Q deliveries way down, even lower than the most bearish estimates.
jwb
Footballguy
I honestly feel the demand for EV's was always overestimated. Too much "range/charging uncertainty" for many folks. So the people who really want them have them, and until those negatives are addressed, the rest of us will wait.
Runkle
Footballguy
A Barron's podcast had a similar take. Early adopters got theirs, there's no growth left in that segment. The next wave of buyers see very expensive cars that are costly to insure and repair, and would rather buy hybrids to save money. They're not willing or able to pay so much extra to feel a little good about the environment.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Who peed in Mr. Market's Cheerios this morning?
identikit
Footballguy
The carbon footprint between gas and all-electric is a minimal difference, from what I've read
But the price isn't
Been driving a hybrid since 2005
It's enough for me
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Ridgeback
Footballguy
I'd take a guess, but don't want another temporary vacation.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
If US debt is/becomes an existential crisis, what happens when the snowball starts rolling? And how best to protect against it (don't tell me BTC, @hooter311 )?
I think Gold and Real Estate are good answers. I've been looking at buying a property but no luck yet (I'm hunting via houses going to auction under foreclosure--follow me in another thread!). My hunch is that, in the short term, interest rates fall a bit, maybe twice this year, and the pent up demand will send home prices strongly upward. I think it is also a long-term hedge as a tangible product. Gold is the obvious answer. Honestly, if the national debt gets so far out of hand that we're looking at ways to capitalize on investments, we're missing the big picture. It'd be ugly. And i do not think this becomes a meaningful mover of markets for decades. Countries can live with high debt ratios for a long time.
HUM trading sub $300, cheaper than it's been in four years.
General Malaise
Footballguy
Gold: $2,262
Silver: $25.80
Silver: $25.80
SFBayDuck
Footballguy
Was finally in the black on this one....not anymore!
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Might have a small bump in the roadRegarding $mstr, bitcoin miners (I own $mara, $hut, and $wulf), and bitcoin etfs (own $ibit)...
The supply crunch I've been yapping about for a decade now finally seems to be playing out and seems undeniable at this point in time.
Right now, the only thing allowing supply to keep up with demand are the outflows of $gbtc. With their fees now 6x the industry standard it makes no sense to leave money in there. The fund is currently bleeding around 5,000 btc a day which are being sold on coinbase.
After today there are about 330,000 btc left sitting in $gbtc. When those dry up in the next 6 months the price will have no choice but to go hyperbolic. There simply won't be any bitcoin to buy.
Daily etf flows can be monitored here:
Bitcoin ETF Flow – Farside Investors
As long as $gbtc is depleting and the rest are increasing it really doesnt matter what the price does between now and then, its just a matter of time. The speculators are playing billions in futures instead of actual bitcoin and thats what causes the bumping ride. The gaps fill fast.
The first true supply squeeze at these funding rates will be a ride for the ages...
My comment earlier wasn't a slam on BTC. I'm just not looking to add atm.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I'm not talking about capitalizing. I'm talking about protecting. If the Treasury market ####s the bed, then what...?
Putting 25% in Swiss Francs and storing them in an old dog bed tomorrow.
fruity pebbles
Footballguy
Honestly surprised TSLA wasn’t down more today. Think we see $120 at some point.
hooter311
Footballguy
I was just playing.Might have a small bump in the roadRegarding $mstr, bitcoin miners (I own $mara, $hut, and $wulf), and bitcoin etfs (own $ibit)...
The supply crunch I've been yapping about for a decade now finally seems to be playing out and seems undeniable at this point in time.
Right now, the only thing allowing supply to keep up with demand are the outflows of $gbtc. With their fees now 6x the industry standard it makes no sense to leave money in there. The fund is currently bleeding around 5,000 btc a day which are being sold on coinbase.
After today there are about 330,000 btc left sitting in $gbtc. When those dry up in the next 6 months the price will have no choice but to go hyperbolic. There simply won't be any bitcoin to buy.
Daily etf flows can be monitored here:
Bitcoin ETF Flow – Farside Investors
As long as $gbtc is depleting and the rest are increasing it really doesnt matter what the price does between now and then, its just a matter of time. The speculators are playing billions in futures instead of actual bitcoin and thats what causes the bumping ride. The gaps fill fast.
The first true supply squeeze at these funding rates will be a ride for the ages...
My comment earlier wasn't a slam on BTC. I'm just not looking to add atm.
I've been trying to and look forward to diversifying in the future so I'm here to listen.
Creditors hold 146,000 btc or so from the mt gox fiasco that could be sold off at any time. I think last night's 7% drop in 30 mins was triggered by someone dropping 30,000 coins on the open market.
I think a lot of the $gbtc selling off are creditors cashing in the 22 million shares FTX was holding on to.
I've got no problem with coins flowing from governments and keyboard warriors and into the hands of longterm institutional holders. These 7% dips are nothing compared to the 20+% ones I've dealt with the last couple cycles. The asset class is maturing.
hooter311
Footballguy
Love stacking me some physical silver. Paper manipulates the market down. You can't tell me we wont see $50 oz silver before I die.I'm not talking about capitalizing. I'm talking about protecting. If the Treasury market ####s the bed, then what...?
Putting 25% in Swiss Francs and storing them in an old dog bed tomorrow.
And bullets, I have lots and lots of bullets.
Niles Standish
Footballguy
A dumb version would be more helpful to me. Does it have any use? It probably does. I just don't know what.
hooter311
Footballguy
Store of wealth?
Blockchain is the most infallible financial instrument ever created. It is the the future of everything money related.
Bitcoin is the first finite resource tied to blockchain technology.
Now when we look forward 10+ years I think something more efficient eventually takes it's place. No idea what that is right now, but it will be some form of blockchain.
And a dumbed down definition of blockchain would be "a giant open source ledger audited a billion times over", basically the word of the lord.
Niles Standish
Footballguy
Is Blockchain separate from crypto or somehow owned by crypto? Serious questions here I own a small amount of crypto but I have never been able to understand it's use if any. Blockchain seems positive (although I still don't know what it is although I appreciate the dumbed down version it's still not quite registering) but does it being bigger/used more/better (whatever applies) make crypto more valuable?
Isn't asset preservation more related to the whole speculation? If we decided seashells were valuable wouldn't they be asset preservation too?
Just asking questions because I'd love to understand. Especially since I own some and have never understood what it's for.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Bossman
Footballguy
I wouldn't mind a big fat dip to load up some more blue chip stonks / index funds. It still seems really high to me here.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Berkshire is only buying SIRI as a merger arbitrage (Liberty Sirius XM, who already owns like 85% of them is buying the rest) play. I only know this because I looked into a while back when I saw Berkshire buying it and wanted to know why they’d invest in that turd. So, if you want to figure out the arbitrage angle (I don’t) then go for it.
Todem
Footballguy
The Market is definitely taking a breather.....I mean it was down what 1% yesterday basically?
We have had a great run since 10/2023. We were due for a healthy pullback and this may be the start of one.
Not concerned long term. But short term we can easily give back 5-7% of our YTD gains on the 3 major indexes. The Nasdaq can even go lower given the insane run it has had from 1/2023 to now.
Just part of the cycle.
And BTW stocks are not super expensive like some headlines would have you believe.
If we want to look deeper into the future and what I think the biggest elephant in the room is towards a major downturn:
The US Deficit.
But let's save that discussion till after the election.
Right now the market is coming to terms that the Fed is not cutting nearly as much as it thought and we said that a long time ago here in this thread coming to the end of 2023.
The market certainly got ahead of itself in that regard.
What will drive the market higher this year after it pulls back is good earnings and that first rate cut sometime in the third quarter.
jwb
Footballguy
It's definitely not overblown, especially in the macro context of public perception and investing.
Range is a legit concern that won't go away until recharging is as easy/fast/thoughtless as getting gas. And it's not remotely close to that. Like it or not, until we can pull off nearly any exit and charge up in ten minutes and be on our way, it'll be an issue. The tv comparison is not valid here - upgrading to color did not change my tv watching habits one bit. Getting an EV and going on a long trip... now it's different, and I have to factor in A) where to recharge, because I can't assume nearly every exit has charging stations and B) how long I have to budget for it timewise. Those are massive roadblocks to full on mainstream acceptance, no matter how much current owners say they do just fine with it.
Although I don't own one, I'm on your side here. I truly want EV's to succeed, and I hope they solve this issue. And I think they will eventually. But until then, I see it as a not-great investment, mostly because EV stocks seem to be priced at a level that assumes mainstream acceptance right now.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Have never invested and probably will never invest in an EV maker*. Made a few bucks shorting Tesla when it was overheated, but I realized that was a fool's errand. But I don't invest in legacy carmakers either, so nothing new there.
That said, I think there are 2 types of people for whom this is a legit statement:
1. Renters who are unable to charge overnight at their residence. I wouldn't want to have to navigate it. And home prices are working against EVs in this regard, though I'd think inclusion of charging options at rentals will become a nice differentiator for renters going forward.
2. Anyone who legit roadtrips more than 600ish miles more than 2-3 times a year.
If people don't fall into 1 of those 2 categories and they aren't buying an EV strictly due to range concerns, they're making that decision out of ignorance. Which should surprise nobody.
We're #### as a country at maintaining the infrastructure we have, so I doubt we're going to see the serious investments other countries have made into EV infrastructure. Which is one of the reasons we'll continue to lag in EV adoption. But don't sell ignorance short in that regard. We're really good at not wanting to know what we don't know.
*Realized after I posted that this was a lie. I bought a SPAC that turned into LEV. Rode it up and dumped enough to get my basis out. Free rode the rest down to where it is now, pretty much meeting my expectations for investing in EV manufacturers (Yes, I know lots of people have made lots of money on TSLA. I've just never seen value there. Perhaps my own ignorance on display).
Peggy
Footballguy
Yeah, corrections are healthy and buying opportunities.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Let me just chime in here since my work crosses paths with infrastructure in a lot of ways. There's a lot of infrastructure investment taking place right now, such as with grid hardening and modernization. A lot. There's also investment being made in EV's. I recently helped win two EPA grants (one here in AZ, one in WA) for about $27,000,000 total for schools to swap out old diesel buses for EV buses. Part of the application process was ensuring these schools had conversations with their utility so they can learn what type of charging infrastructure they would need to install to support the buses, and this infrastructure was then built into the grant. There's also a series of grants aimed towards state and local governments to support the buildout of charging infrastructure for personal vehicles (which is what we're mainly talking about) but I haven't worked on those directly yet. The point is there is a lot of investment being made, it's just not being publicized the way it probably should be. I agree that wasn't always the case, but it's turning around.
Todem
Footballguy
Why our country and its current leadership did not go full on Hydrogen Cell technology is beyond me.
Most likely the EV lobbying had deeper pockets.
Hydrogen Cell power.....filling stations infrastructure already in place...you just need to convert them to have hydrogen fuel available in addition to gasoline as we transition to that tech.
It made too much sense. But nope...we are going to push EV tech instead which has its own massive anti green issues.
Anyway....huge mistake imo.
And damn EV's are still overpriced.
I am far more likely to purchase a hybrid than a straight up EV.
Most likely the EV lobbying had deeper pockets.
Hydrogen Cell power.....filling stations infrastructure already in place...you just need to convert them to have hydrogen fuel available in addition to gasoline as we transition to that tech.
It made too much sense. But nope...we are going to push EV tech instead which has its own massive anti green issues.
Anyway....huge mistake imo.
And damn EV's are still overpriced.
I am far more likely to purchase a hybrid than a straight up EV.
