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Filled. Thanks.

I'm pretty sure we're league-mates. I was actually surprised the rookie picks lasted as long as they did - I was happy to land the 2nd and 3rd overall rookie picks at 3.10 and 4.03. Surrounding picks in order, for reference: CEH > 1.02 > Aiyuk > Waller > Jacobs > Mixon > 1.03...

I don't think he's worth a 3rd in general, but especially not in this class. WR is just as deep as last year, QB and TE are deeper. There are going to be guys available in the 3rd who would be 2nd round picks most years.

Sure. I’m not arguing that he’s injury prone, relative to his position. I’m pivoting away from 26 YO RBs in general - and he’s not an exception for me. I don’t anticipate him being any less susceptible to injury, and I don’t think I’ll be missing out on a league-winning season from him...

You could be right. Best case for the Packers - he signs at the week 1 deadline, after missing all of camp. He has too much financial incentive not to play what cards he has. 

What do you mean? Maybe I missed something, but players don’t have to sign the tender. Jones will do what he can, short of missing a year of service. If they franchise him and refuse to trade him to a team who will sign him, his season will look a lot like Melvin Gordon’s last season in SD. IMO.

I meant to say that he’s likely to hold out.   

They have a lot of needs and a lot money tied up in their top guys. (I don’t know how many of those guys are cut or restructure candidates, however.) On top of that, signing Jones to a big deal is an obviously bad move, IMO. I don’t see SEA making that kind of mistake. I see them reuniting with...

I could see Miami. Buffalo would be solid, but his TD rate would take a sizable hit. I’d be shocked if SEA signed him.

What are the odds he suits up, if they do? Not great, IMO.

Where is he likely to go? I expect a bad FO to sign him.  He’s 26 and has missed games in 3 of his 4 seasons. I think he’s more likely to have zero top 10 seasons left than 2+, personally. I could be wrong, of course. Just not a profile I typically look to invest in. 

Dillon is going rounds after Aaron Jones - and that feels wrong to me. I prefer the former. What are your thoughts?

Hard to say without the rest of your league specs. If PPR, start 2x RB, 3x WR, 1x Flex - top 10ish, for me.

I agree with you in principle, and do prefer the 1.01, but am pretty low on this RB class, relative to consensus. Outside of Harris, who probably would have been my RB3 or 4 in last year's class, I don't see a prospect I like more than I liked Jacobs. I don't see another back with an obviously...

I agree. I’d take Pitts over Fant and Hockenson. If the current versions of Hockenson and Fant are what I miss out on if I swing and miss on Pitts, I can live with that. I like the other two, so I understand the counter argument. But I do see a higher fantasy upside with Pitts. 

How do you rank these guys: Pitts, Waller, Hockenson, Fant?

@ZWK Do you know what Amari Cooper would have to do to match Todd Gurley in career VBD in your model, roughly? Or how likely that is to happen? I know it's a tired debate, but I'm looking for examples of RB/WR combinations from the same class, who both hit, with the WR having - or projected to...

Gibson, Sanders, Zeke, Jacobs, Ekeler, Jones, Mixon, Drake

PFF is far from perfect, but it's the only game in town. I don't let it wholly override my opinion of a player, but it's a nice second opinion. In 2019 he was top 10 in juke rate, yards created/touch, YAC, YAR and forced missed tackles. #11 in breakaway rate and DVOA; #12 in DYAR. The comps...

He had an elite PFF grade and was top 10 in a bunch of the metrics we typically care about - on high volume, in a below average offense, behind a below average offensive line - and looked good doing it. I don't see obvious value in the 80/4.5 exercise. If there is any, we'd need to compare him...