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Dynasty Value Discussion Thread (15 Viewers)

MAC_32 said:
Something to consider - let's set a bar at 80 yards and 4.5 ypc. How many games in 2019 did he clear that bar? 5. Against who? 4 opponents in the bottom 10 in fantasy points/game against opposing RB's - KC x2, GB, and CIN. His other was against Chicago when Akiem Hicks was injured in the first quarter. While it doesn't meet that arbitrary criteria we should probably also give him credit for the 28-120-2 performance against Detroit, but they allowed the most fantasy points per game in 2019.

Just to reiterate, I wouldn't read too much into that for 2021 purposes. RB's that perform well against bad competition and get a lot of touches are assets in our game. I don't think a repeat of 2019 and 2020 will be enough for him to get his option exercised and prevent competition being brought in '22. Am I going to pass up on a Kyle Pitts to gamble that he takes the necessary step? Nope.
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He had an elite PFF grade and was top 10 in a bunch of the metrics we typically care about - on high volume, in a below average offense, behind a below average offensive line - and looked good doing it. I don't see obvious value in the 80/4.5 exercise. If there is any, we'd need to compare him to the rest of the league to extract it. 

I think the Raiders love him. But if they do opt against the 5th year, there's a solid enough chance his fantasy value survives. He'll have just turned 25.

 
Concept Coop said:
He had an elite PFF grade and was top 10 in a bunch of the metrics we typically care about - on high volume, in a below average offense, behind a below average offensive line - and looked good doing it. I don't see obvious value in the 80/4.5 exercise. If there is any, we'd need to compare him to the rest of the league to extract it. 

I think the Raiders love him. But if they do opt against the 5th year, there's a solid enough chance his fantasy value survives. He'll have just turned 25.
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He was top 10 this year but only due to fluky circumstances, IMO.

I'm no longer a big fan, but is Zeke really a non-top 10 back? There are a few players more likely to enter the top 10 than Jacobs is to stay there: Gibson, Sanders, Swift, Dobbins, possibly a rookie or two.

Jacobs also had seven games where he was either a zero or in single digits. That's a season killer for your fantasy team.

I think we need to be careful when we hope that on field points will catch up to the analytics/statistics that say players SHOULD have more points than they do.

 
Concept Coop said:
He had an elite PFF grade and was top 10 in a bunch of the metrics we typically care about - on high volume, in a below average offense, behind a below average offensive line - and looked good doing it. I don't see obvious value in the 80/4.5 exercise. If there is any, we'd need to compare him to the rest of the league to extract it. 

I think the Raiders love him. But if they do opt against the 5th year, there's a solid enough chance his fantasy value survives. He'll have just turned 25.
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Intuitively I've soured on PFF, but I am interested in the other metrics you mentioned.

It's certainly possible I've just tuned into his uninspiring performances and he has displayed unique abilities in games I happened not to watch, but the only good game I've seen of him was against Cleveland. And even that wasn't anything special. LV dominated the line of scrimmage in a bad weather game and Jacobs consistently got what was blocked for him and little more. From what I've seen when he's healthier and running with high effort he's generally an effective running back, but his physicality is impacted when he's not at full health and he doesn't have the unique traits to overcome it when that happens.

That^^^ isn't a 5th year option talent. Is it a 1a? JAG? Probably somewhere in between, but that's why I mentioned needing to see another level in '21 to think he will continue to be a feature back. But again, curious what metrics support his hold on a feature back role.

 
MAC_32 said:
Intuitively I've soured on PFF, but I am interested in the other metrics you mentioned.
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PFF is far from perfect, but it's the only game in town. I don't let it wholly override my opinion of a player, but it's a nice second opinion.

In 2019 he was top 10 in juke rate, yards created/touch, YAC, YAR and forced missed tackles. #11 in breakaway rate and DVOA; #12 in DYAR.

MAC_32 said:
That^^^ isn't a 5th year option talent. Is it a 1a? JAG? Probably somewhere in between, but that's why I mentioned needing to see another level in '21 to think he will continue to be a feature back.
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The comps for Jacobs, if we assume his production holds steady, going back 12 seasons or so, either had their options exercised or received extensions. Melvin Gordon, Mark Ingram, and Gio Bernard. Martin's option was declined, but he missed 15 of 32 games and averaged 3.7 YPC during his 2nd and 3rd seasons. (He was re-signed after bouncing back year 4.)

Open it up to 2nd and 3rd round picks and guys like Duke Johnson, Joe Mixon, Kenyan Drake, Jerick McKinnon, Devonta Freeman, Lamar Miller, and even Toby Gerhart all got extensions, were tagged, or signed significant FA deals to start elsewhere.

I strongly disagree that Jacobs needs to do anything more than he's done over his first 2 seasons to see a 5th year. Certainly nothing more than he did in 2019,

(Looking at the list of RB draftees gave me a stomach ache. So. Many. Busts.)

 
I personally like the still 22 year old RB with a couple productive NFL seasons under his belt over a rookie pick #5 that you would be happy with if that player achieved Jacob's production.

Unless we think Jacob's falls of a cliff soon??  I mean, he IS a good player.  

 
ghostguy123 said:
I personally like the still 22 year old RB with a couple productive NFL seasons under his belt over a rookie pick #5 that you would be happy with if that player achieved Jacob's production.

Unless we think Jacob's falls of a cliff soon??  I mean, he IS a good player.  
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To be clear, I'm not approaching this from a binary Jacobs v rookie RB perspective. If I had pick 5 (I don't) I think I am likely picking a pass catcher (I don't play SF). I am extremely confident this pool of pass catchers will rival last year's special group. 

 
MAC_32 said:
To be clear, I'm not approaching this from a binary Jacobs v rookie RB perspective. If I had pick 5 (I don't) I think I am likely picking a pass catcher (I don't play SF). I am extremely confident this pool of pass catchers will rival last year's special group. 
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I didnt say vs another rookie RB specifically.  Any rookie at # 5.  WR or whatever.  

If this was superflex then I would lean pick 5.  

Regular PPR i will roll with Jacob's. 

 
ghostguy123 said:
I didnt say vs another rookie RB specifically.  Any rookie at # 5.  WR or whatever.  

If this was superflex then I would lean pick 5.  

Regular PPR i will roll with Jacob's. 
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I figured, but I wanted to be sure. Given this particular class I disagree about that assessment. This class, like last year, is loaded. I've traded into excess picks in each class for that reason. I'll always consider moving out of it if the deal is right, but I don't think Jacobs fits. I think he marginally improves one's probability of winning in 2021, but beyond? As of an hour ago I'd bet on whatever rookie is top on my board at that time. Coop is getting me to reconsider that stance though.

 
ghostguy123 said:
I personally like the still 22 year old RB with a couple productive NFL seasons under his belt over a rookie pick #5 that you would be happy with if that player achieved Jacob's production.

Unless we think Jacob's falls of a cliff soon??  I mean, he IS a good player.  
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It's hard to win a lot of FFPC dynasty leagues with team full of good players. Need some great, need some difference makers. I can't get over how in two FFPC leagues of mine that teams in final 4 sat Jacobs weeks 15-16, and neither of them won.

Pick 5 I got a solid shot at getting another good player, to be fair a shot at worse but it's the idea I got a shot at greatness/stud/difference maker that is appealing.

 
ghostguy123 said:
I personally like the still 22 year old RB with a couple productive NFL seasons under his belt over a rookie pick #5 that you would be happy with if that player achieved Jacob's production.

Unless we think Jacob's falls of a cliff soon??  I mean, he IS a good player.  
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Is he tho? based on what?

I get that he is young. But other than that, what is so desirable?

242/1150/7 in 2019 with 20 catches on 27 tgts for 166 yds 0 tds

273/1065/12 in 2020 with 33 catches on 45 tgts for 238 0 tds

Targets went up this year, they hardly used richard or booker, like 40 combined targets to them total. and 115 total carries between them.

So even when he gets half the receiving work and 70+% of the carries, which is basically everything. He is so ineficient You get rb ~8 on the best year? I think im selling if i get the 1.05 or something there abouts.

 
Again, considering we know who is getting drafted this year, we can talk about the player you'd possibly get with the 1.5 instead of the pick itself. 

Then you can ask yourself, which would you rather have, Jacobs or (assuming the top three are approximately Etienne, Harris, and Chase) Smith, Waddle, Williams, Pitts, or maybe even Lawrence?

Personally, I'd rather have any of them than Jacobs.

 
menobrown said:
It's hard to win a lot of FFPC dynasty leagues with team full of good players. Need some great, need some difference makers. I can't get over how in two FFPC leagues of mine that teams in final 4 sat Jacobs weeks 15-16, and neither of them won.

Pick 5 I got a solid shot at getting another good player, to be fair a shot at worse but it's the idea I got a shot at greatness/stud/difference maker that is appealing.
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Yeah I'm really not sure how I feel about Jacobs, but I agree with this approach. The other thing about 1.05 and it being more flexible is that means you can (arguably) turn the 1.05 into 1.01-1.04 easier than if you try to use Jacobs to get there. There are likely attractive secondary assets that you can add to 1.05 if the difference maker/stud that you're speaking of is a couple spots off. 

Many will say don't move for the 1.05 (or x.xx) until you know who is on the board. I like to acquire flexible capital while I can. If/when the deal is right, which it often isn't. I'm not buying Jacobs for 1.05 but it's a super close call on whether I would trade Jacobs to get there. Probably. Depends on my roster, though. I would probably only do it if my intention was to take a WR because I had RB depth. I wouldn't move Jacobs for a *shot* at a replacement RB. I would only do that if they were actually on the board, and probably only Harris. So I would need to have studs at RB already.

 
Just Win Baby said:
There was a reason - Pete Carroll. Wilson had a couple bad turnover games, and Carroll put a stop to the LetRussCook offense. Carroll is under contract through 2025, so Wilson's prime is completely tied to him unless Pete has a health issue that forces him out. I am a huge Wilson fan, but that is enough for me to avoid him in dynasty.
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Yeah I thought the coaching staff had an epiphany about Wilson bring too good to not throw the ball more. It looked that way early on. But then they lose a couple games and the gum chewer thinks he has to get control of this team back and there you go. 

 
A bird in hand is better than one in the bush so yes I would give pick 5 in 2020 for Josh Jacobs.

Will there be a RB selected in the 1st round in 2020? Im not sure about that but Jacobs was. Now maybe the Raiders were wrong to select him that high. Personally I thought his talent level was similar to David Montgomery and I still think that is the case, but Jacobs was a much higher pick, and I am still sort of wondering why that happened.

I like Etienne more than Jacobs but Im not sure he will be a 1st round pick like Jacobs was. I normally argue for WR over RB but Jacobs can be a difference maker for fantasy teams in 2021.

 
Biabreakable said:
A bird in hand is better than one in the bush so yes I would give pick 5 in 2020 for Josh Jacobs.

Will there be a RB selected in the 1st round in 2020? Im not sure about that but Jacobs was. Now maybe the Raiders were wrong to select him that high. Personally I thought his talent level was similar to David Montgomery and I still think that is the case, but Jacobs was a much higher pick, and I am still sort of wondering why that happened.

I like Etienne more than Jacobs but Im not sure he will be a 1st round pick like Jacobs was. I normally argue for WR over RB but Jacobs can be a difference maker for fantasy teams in 2021.
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Weighing draft capital that heavily can be deceptive sometimes, though. Teams get it wrong all the time and landing spot matters immensely. No one’s going to argue Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel are better assets than Nick Chubb because they were first round picks and he wasn’t. 

 
JoeJoe88 said:
Weighing draft capital that heavily can be deceptive sometimes, though. Teams get it wrong all the time and landing spot matters immensely. No one’s going to argue Rashaad Penny and Sony Michel are better assets than Nick Chubb because they were first round picks and he wasn’t. 
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Yeah I dont really agree with the Raiders pick was kind of my point and that you can likely get Montgomery for a cheaper price and possibly similar production.

eta - The draft position is one of the strongest analytic indicators of player productivity we have. Not that it is perfect, there just isn't anything thats really better than that as far as metrics go.

 
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joey said:
How about a pick in the 1.10 range in PPR? Does that change all of the "take the pick" guys into "I’ll take Jacobs at that price" guys?
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If I felt I needed a RB to get me closer to the championship I think I'd pay that price. 

Otherwise I'd be hoping Hubbard, Gainwell, or mayyybe Sermon could fit the bill. I'd rather have Jacobs in that case.

 
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joey said:
How about a pick in the 1.10 range in PPR? Does that change all of the "take the pick" guys into "I’ll take Jacobs at that price" guys?
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Jacobs owner would not take my 1.09 for him. To be honest, I think I'd rather hope Pitts or Trevor fall to 1.09 for me anyway even though I need RB depth & it is start 1 QB...

 
Speaking of Jacobs and Rbs, how do you rank these guys in a PPR dynasty?

Jacobs, Zeke, Mixon, Sanders, Ekeler, Gibson, A. Jones, Drake 

 
I think five is too light for Jacobs. I know we don't run on calcs, but calcs that reflect ADP and both ADP and rankings show that to be pretty light, and I downgrade Jacobs based on exactly the concerns that other people have.

Actually, none of the calcs show it as even being close. He's more like a 1.2/3 in all of them.

 
rockaction said:
I think five is too light for Jacobs. I know we don't run on calcs, but calcs that reflect ADP and both ADP and rankings show that to be pretty light, and I downgrade Jacobs based on exactly the concerns that other people have.

Actually, none of the calcs show it as even being close. He's more like a 1.2/3 in all of them.
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Another example of why they should be used as a start, but not end point. 

Would you really rather have Jacobs than one of Harris, Etienne, or Chase? I wouldn't.  

 
ffmail4me said:
Speaking of Jacobs and Rbs, how do you rank these guys in a PPR dynasty?

Jacobs, Zeke, Mixon, Sanders, Ekeler, Gibson, A. Jones, Drake 
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Zeke, Mixon, Sanders, Jones, Ekeler, Gibson,Jacobs, Drake. Good list, that wasn’t easy. And I really didn’t love putting Zeke first but that’s assuming Dak returns to Dallas. 

 
Andy Dufresne said:
Another example of why they should be used as a start, but not end point. 

Would you really rather have Jacobs than one of Harris, Etienne, or Chase? I wouldn't.  
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He's younger than Harris and Etienne has flaws. People aren't even sure if these guys are three-down backs in the NFL yet, depending where they land. I'd wait until after the NFL draft to do all this, unless we're talking that we're drafting before then. Jacobs is entrenched as the starter in LV so there's knowledge on that end what he's going to be. The question is where are the young guys going and how do their coaches view committee stuff? Would I rather have Rashod Bateman or Chase or one of the other younger receivers? Probably. But Jacobs will likely continue to see mad volume, which is really the metric of choice when looking at backs. MAC makes the point I've come to hold, which is that talent breeds volume, but this isn't always the case, especially -- as Coop points out -- when he's a first round draft choice.

So, I'm not sure why indeed we're this high on a 23 year-old and Etienne, who didn't get the grade he wanted so he went back to school and likely hurt his stock as opposed to Jacobs, who we know gets at least something done in the pros. 

 
But I get what you're saying about the starting and ending points of calculators. It's just that when they're tied to ADP, you can maximize a player's value by looking at how the aggregate market views him. Then you have to look at how the guys in your league do, which is the real "market" for your player.

 
But Jacobs didn't really have an inordinate number of touches either. People keep citing "volume" but in 9 of 16 weeks he had 17 or fewer carries. And the max catches in a game were four - which he did only twice. 

That's not exactly what I think of when I think "volume". 

 
Jacobs had the 3rd most rushes in the league and the 10th most targets among RB's in 15 games. Obviously some guys missed more time than that but how many that would have out-touched him? Volume is just not same thing anymore as it was in the days of LT2  :shrug:

 
I'm thinking volume is relative. Sometimes my posts won't have cites because I see them on Twitter and file them away, but I remember seeing Jacobs' volume or rushes as being near the top and his efficiency being pretty low, per narrative. (The main point of the tweet was that Elliott's efficiency, or points per touch, was really low, something I didn't like seeing.) It was an interesting tweet by an interesting dude.

 
barackdhouse said:
Gibson
Sanders
Zeke
Ekeler

Jacobs
Mixon
A. Jones

Drake
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If the Bengals addresses their o-line (and you think they would to protect Burrow) I am starting to think Mixon might be one of the best buy lows at the RB position. I also agree Gibson has the most upside from that list ;)

 
rockaction said:
So, I'm not sure why indeed we're this high on a 23 year-old and Etienne, who didn't get the grade he wanted so he went back to school and likely hurt his stock as opposed to Jacobs, who we know gets at least something done in the pros. 
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I think Etienne has a borderline bullet proof floor in today's game. There are weaknesses in his skillset between the tackles which could relegate him to a committee, but it's the sort of committee role that scores in our game. He's advanced in all facets of the passing game and hits home runs on the perimeter. And that's without considering his ceiling. 

Obvious caveats, what if he goes to a terrible franchise that misuses him. Given the way I build my teams, it's a risk I'm comfortable with. I'm adding rookies for 2022; not 2021. I think Etienne is a better bet right now 2022+ than Jacobs, but it's also easy for me to write that since the earliest I'm picking anywhere is 9. This isn't a decision I'm going to need to make.

 
ghostguy123 said:
Where does jerry jeudy rank with this rookie crop?
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I have picks 1.12, 2.4, and 2.7 in one league. 1.10, 2.8, and 2.10 in another. And 1.7, 1.11, and 2.11 in the last one. They're all IDP, but I'd be surprised if I use any of those picks for Jeudy. 

 
MAC_32 said:
I think Etienne has a borderline bullet proof floor in today's game. There are weaknesses in his skillset between the tackles which could relegate him to a committee, but it's the sort of committee role that scores in our game. He's advanced in all facets of the passing game and hits home runs on the perimeter. And that's without considering his ceiling. 

Obvious caveats, what if he goes to a terrible franchise that misuses him. Given the way I build my teams, it's a risk I'm comfortable with. I'm adding rookies for 2022; not 2021. I think Etienne is a better bet right now 2022+ than Jacobs, but it's also easy for me to write that since the earliest I'm picking anywhere is 9. This isn't a decision I'm going to need to make.
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MAC_32 said:
I have picks 1.12, 2.4, and 2.7 in one league. 1.10, 2.8, and 2.10 in another. And 1.7, 1.11, and 2.11 in the last one. They're all IDP, but I'd be surprised if I use any of those picks for Jeudy. 
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lol

 
Haha, I forgot that pick I traded for was 9 and not 7 til I looked between posts. Thought that guy won round 1, but I guess not.

 
MAC_32 said:
I think Etienne has a borderline bullet proof floor in today's game
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I will just say that there aren't many draft prospects over the past 10 years who warranted a "bullet proof" label, and I suspect a large number of the ones labeled as such didn't live up to it.

I personally don't see Etienne as warranting that kind of assessment. :shrug:  

 
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Just Win Baby said:
I will just say that there aren't many draft prospects over the past 10 years who warranted a "bullet proof" label, and I suspect a large number of the ones labeled as such didn't live up to it.

I personally don't see Etienne as warranting that kind of assessment. :shrug:  
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I didn't label him bullet proof. I labeled his floor bullet proof. I think there is a massive difference between the 2.

 
menobrown said:
Going to take easy way out and put them in tiers.

Mixon, Sanders, Ekeler, Gibson

Jacobs

Jones, Zeke

Drake
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Should always rank in tiers IMO. I still look at them in order in those tiers.

I actually am still high on Jacobs just to jump into this discussion. I have him higher than the 1.01, which is Javonte Williams for me. But it's very close. Just a tier jump. 

My top 3 tiers of dynasty RB's:

Tier 1: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook

Tier 2: Cam Akers, D'Andre Swift, Miles Sanders, Antonio Gibson, James Robinson, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs

Tier 3: Javonte Williams, Alvin Kamara, JK Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler

 
MAC_32 said:
I have picks 1.12, 2.4, and 2.7 in one league. 1.10, 2.8, and 2.10 in another. And 1.7, 1.11, and 2.11 in the last one. They're all IDP, but I'd be surprised if I use any of those picks for Jeudy. 
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So in regular PPR leagues you dont even have Jeudy as a 2nd rounder?

 
Zyphros said:
Should always rank in tiers IMO. I still look at them in order in those tiers.

I actually am still high on Jacobs just to jump into this discussion. I have him higher than the 1.01, which is Javonte Williams for me. But it's very close. Just a tier jump. 

My top 3 tiers of dynasty RB's:

Tier 1: Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook

Tier 2: Cam Akers, D'Andre Swift, Miles Sanders, Antonio Gibson, James Robinson, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs

Tier 3: Javonte Williams, Alvin Kamara, JK Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Najee Harris, Austin Ekeler
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No Henry? Your rankings are skewed bigly towards youth, but Henry has to be in there somewhere, right?

 
ffmail4me said:
If the Bengals addresses their o-line (and you think they would to protect Burrow) I am starting to think Mixon might be one of the best buy lows at the RB position. I also agree Gibson has the most upside from that list ;)
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I sold one share of him this week and a couple people are interested in the only other share I have. I think you may be right but I'm trying to flip for what I perceive as value right now.

menobrown said:
Going to take easy way out and put them in tiers.

Mixon, Sanders, Ekeler, Gibson

Jacobs

Jones, Zeke

Drake
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Once again we're very close to the same assessment. We have these two switched, though, and that's super reasonable. I'd be curious on your thoughts on Zeke. I bought a couple dynasty orphans that have him and I think his value is pretty low right now for being in such a high powered offense. I might feel better if I knew Dak's recovery were going strong. I haven't looked and it is still really early anyway. For me these tier breaks were fairly marginal prior to the drop off to Drake. I know Zeke has been discussed a ton but wondered what *you* thought. Even though I'm sure I can dig it up.

 
Guys I just took Aiyuk in the 6th round of a PPR best ball dynasty league. Curious if you think he can duplicate what he did this past year with Kittle and Deebo are both on the field. On the one hand its safe to assume he'll have less targets, but seems it would be even harder to defend him when defenses are focusing on Kittle and Deebo. And of course if the 49ers upgrade their QB spot as rumored all the better....just curious if people think he's a breakout next year or potential let down with everyone back? 

 
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